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9 minutes ago, Enzedel92 said:

Look Terry and Deano make an awful tactical combination..  Goes all the way back to the 2007 America’s Cup.  Hutch and Deano REFUSED to take the right off the starts.  Race after race they allowed Alinghi the right and Alinghi bludgeoned them tack after tack and reduced ETNZ to a pile of rubble.  
 

They don’t make the best sailing decisions, been like that for years..

Exactly my thought when I heard that both are in the same team again.

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And we have liftoff!!

I for one was happy to finally see an American team that didn’t just reek of assholes. Terry was a great bloke to have in front of the cameras and the intimate videos behind the scenes I found quite f

Posted Images

The lefty that screwed Prada at the start of  Race 2 could have saved a lot of bacon if it had happened during a race.

So there were left hand shifts, but they weren't frequent enough of loud enough to matter much.

Although we are supposed to love short races close to shore, this is a pretty crap place to play for high stakes.  

SHC

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3 minutes ago, Steve Clark said:

The lefty that screwed Prada at the start of  Race 2 could have saved a lot of bacon if it had happened during a race.

So there were left hand shifts, but they weren't frequent enough of loud enough to matter much.

Although we are supposed to love short races close to shore, this is a pretty crap place to play for high stakes.  

SHC

Nailed it! 
 

I wonder if a fairer course might have been laid elsewhere instead. 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Clark said:

If Memory serves the Hauraki Gulf is a funhouseofhorrors ( which I think is the meaning of "Hauraki")  no matter where or what you sail.

SHC

I'm pretty sure the English translation of Hauraki has always been "sparkling waters where America's Cup challenges fail, sink and die", though my cat may well have just made that up.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Clark said:

If Memory serves the Hauraki Gulf is a funhouseofhorrors ( which I think is the meaning of "Hauraki")  no matter where or what you sail.

SHC

Compared to Bermuda and more especially SF, yes it’s historically been a ‘house of horrors’ at times, the 2003 CSS especially so. 

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5 hours ago, enigmatically2 said:

Maybe, but at the presser Terry said they favoured the left.

Bad start, bad weather read and worse VMG. They will be the ones sleepless tonight I think, esp as they are the one with 2 races tomorrow

That is the other conclusion, they read it totally wrong.

These two charts tell a lot.  UK had much higher TWS over most of the race.

1336598313_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_28_28PM.thumb.jpg.4ee339eec9127657cd802f3b1c0eff7e.jpg

But this shows that AM is a faster boat:

126122008_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_26_33PM.thumb.jpg.40fc5666db7e83cf87ca261df9889fbb.jpg

But, you need to sail the wind to win.

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38 minutes ago, The_Alchemist said:

That is the other conclusion, they read it totally wrong.

These two charts tell a lot.  UK had much higher TWS over most of the race.

1336598313_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_28_28PM.thumb.jpg.4ee339eec9127657cd802f3b1c0eff7e.jpg

But this shows that AM is a faster boat:

126122008_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_26_33PM.thumb.jpg.40fc5666db7e83cf87ca261df9889fbb.jpg

But, you need to sail the wind to win.

Indeed.

Plus: Komparativ Defissit in TWS mutsh eezyer* to reverss than KD in Botespeed 

(*at leest, in approx 50% ov raysez, over tym)

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18 hours ago, idontwan2know said:

Hard to tell anything from the data overlays as they're moving so fast and they never stick on it for more than a few seconds at a time.

The only time we saw them in the same wind/water off the start line Patriot seemed faster.

I think most of the difference was pressure on the favored side of the course and missed laylines that caused them to do a few more tacks.

We shall see as the racing goes on.

Look at the start on virtual eye. The figures point to Ineos being faster with vmg as well.

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18 minutes ago, snaerk said:

Indeed.

Plus: Komparativ Defissit in TWS mutsh eezyer* to reverss than KD in Botespeed 

(*at leest, in approx 50% ov raysez, over tym)

We need the VMG graph otherwise the speed one is inconclusive.

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4 minutes ago, snaerk said:

Tru dat. It IZ vmg/tws tho.

look klosely at bottom

Hello Old friend. I am not the sharpest of tools but how can the graph being showing VMG/TWS or is it a divided figure? We know INEOS sailed 500 m less which tells me anyway that their vmg was better?

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2 minutes ago, dullers said:

Hello Old friend. I am not the sharpest of tools but how can the graph being showing VMG/TWS or is it a divided figure?

Korrekt

 

aka a raysheeo

 

not to be konfewzed with horaysheeo (az in hornblower) az sed by a Frentshy

Edited by snaerk
clarifikayshun
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1 minute ago, snaerk said:

Korrekt

I edited it before you replied but i will copy the relevant bit...We know INEOS sailed 500 m less which tells me anyway that their vmg was better?

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2 minutes ago, dullers said:

I edited it before you replied but i will copy the relevant bit...We know INEOS sailed 500 m less which tells me anyway that their vmg was better?

Unless thay takt and/or jybd less offen, praps dew to better shift picks at will (dew to beeing leeder)

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How pressed is AM to make drastic changes prior to today when all 3 teams make the semi’s?   I’m sure they had a thorough debrief from yesterday’s ass kicking but they have time to make gradual adjustments. Not panic mode time. 

WetHog  :ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, snaerk said:

Unless thay takt and/or jybd less offen, praps dew to better shift picks at will (dew to beeing leeder)

I know what you are saying but vmg is the true indicator of speed IMHO. If us Poms were sailing higher than our speed would be less so maybe we are really seeing a high mode boat v a low mode boat. Is low mode less speed and higher pointing or the other way round? I could google it i suppose.

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5 minutes ago, snaerk said:

Unless thay takt and/or jybd less offen, praps dew to better shift picks at will (dew to beeing leeder)

Yesterday’s results were very much a case of the better sailers making a difference.  Rita is competitive in those conditions and Ainslie and Co definitely sailed better than their competitors in terms of starts and picking sides etc.

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10 minutes ago, WetHog said:

How pressed is AM to make drastic changes prior to today when all 3 teams make the semi’s?   I’m sure they had a thorough debrief from yesterday’s ass kicking but they have time to make gradual adjustments. Not panic mode time. 

WetHog  :ph34r:

I think being forced to the left was 90% of their problems imho.

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4 minutes ago, Enzedel92 said:

I am not believing the TWS on Ineos reported by virtual eye.  Ineos always hide higher TWS even in the same water as AM so someones gauge is busted IMO. 

I tried to follow the vmg and speed only but they had the annoying habit of changing it all the time and having the read outs in different places for each boat. So it went VMG SOG  SOG VMG and my brain was dysfunctional at 2 in the morning.

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1 hour ago, The_Alchemist said:

That is the other conclusion, they read it totally wrong.

These two charts tell a lot.  UK had much higher TWS over most of the race.

1336598313_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_28_28PM.thumb.jpg.4ee339eec9127657cd802f3b1c0eff7e.jpg

But this shows that AM is a faster boat:

126122008_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_26_33PM.thumb.jpg.40fc5666db7e83cf87ca261df9889fbb.jpg

But, you need to sail the wind to win.

But that doesn't make sense, UK having more wind wouldn't help them win if they are still slower, UNLESS they get better VMG. And the only time they are near they seem to have. UK weren't tacking on headers they were tacking to protect RHS so must be better VMG

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13 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

But that doesn't make sense, UK having more wind wouldn't help them win if they are still slower, UNLESS they get better VMG. And the only time they are near they seem to have. UK weren't tacking on headers they were tacking to protect RHS so must be better VMG

You can absolutely win with these boats if your the slower boat. These boats make speeds three times the wind speed. If boat A which is 5 % slower than boat B  is in 11 knots of wind they will make (3 *11) * .95 = 31.35 knots. If boat B which is the faster boat is in 10 knots they will have speed of  (3 * 10) = 30 knots

So boat A which is in 1 more knot of wind will be going 1.35 knots quicker than boat B 

playing the shifts in these boats are super critical, even more so than the older iacc boats of past 

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2 hours ago, The_Alchemist said:

That is the other conclusion, they read it totally wrong.

These two charts tell a lot.  UK had much higher TWS over most of the race.

1336598313_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_28_28PM.thumb.jpg.4ee339eec9127657cd802f3b1c0eff7e.jpg

But this shows that AM is a faster boat:

126122008_ScreenShot2021-01-15at2_26_33PM.thumb.jpg.40fc5666db7e83cf87ca261df9889fbb.jpg

But, you need to sail the wind to win.

Don't jump to conclusions from this data: TWS and TWD are very unreliable, especially from INEOS. Their instruments add approx +1 kn to the wind reading seen on the buoys over the VirtualEye. Wind direction can be misleading, too.

By the way, does anyone have a photo of the wind instruments mounted on a buoy?

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16 minutes ago, mako23 said:

You can absolutely win with these boats if your the slower boat. These boats make speeds three times the wind speed. If boat A which is 5 % slower than boat B  is in 11 knots of wind they will make (3 *11) * .95 = 31.35 knots. If boat B which is the faster boat is in 10 knots they will have speed of  (3 * 10) = 30 knots

So boat A which is in 1 more knot of wind will be going 1.35 knots quicker than boat B 

playing the shifts in these boats are super critical, even more so than the older iacc boats of past 

But alchy was suggesting that IK were slower on average despite having more wid. So that doesn't fit with your thesis.

Not slower on the same wind, but slower in the wind they had.

 

I'd also note that at the start it was 10-11 kts. And they visually pulled away after the first tack.

So if they are quicker in anything above 10kts it doesn't leave a very big window to lower limit, even assuming they are slower in that

 

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One race is a pretty small sample size.

Rule 1 of winning regattas is “Trust your tuning.”   They have done hours of work and know exactly how the boat performed relative to the numbers.

The conclusions from Day 1:

Rita doesn’t suck anymore.  

Ineos tech team knows what it is doing and is very capable.

Sir Ben knows how to race sailboats.

SHC

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I posted an analysis of the INEOS - AM race on the Boats and Foils thread. There was almost no difference in VMG between the two (VMG relative to TWA). INEOS just sailed better. But they did fix their boat so now they have about the same performance as the other challengers.

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3 hours ago, enigmatically2 said:

But alchy was suggesting that IK were slower on average despite having more wid. So that doesn't fit with your thesis.

Not slower on the same wind, but slower in the wind they had.

 

I'd also note that at the start it was 10-11 kts. And they visually pulled away after the first tack.

So if they are quicker in anything above 10kts it doesn't leave a very big window to lower limit, even assuming they are slower in that

 

I didn't say the UK was slower over all.  The charts show that UK has constantly stronger winds and AM was able to go faster on a normalized wind speed.  UK did have a greater over all boat speed in up and down wind legs (but if AM had the same winds it would have been faster).

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im wondering if am have bolted on their last go faster bits over night .. panic mode

story was an easy tell .. only 2 defenders am and lr no need to show any go fasters .. till enios spoiled the story

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1 minute ago, phill_nz said:

im wondering if am have bolted on their last go faster bits over night .. panic mode

story was an easy tell .. only 2 defenders am and lr no need to show any go fasters .. till enios spoiled the story

They bolted them on backwards...

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The team dynamics when they get down are bad.

Somebody on the boat has to keep the crew in the race. One of Hutch or Deano has to be the guy, preferably both.

I doubt there's anybody on the shore who can jump in and provide that, so one of those two is going to have to step up.

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Yep, this is the time when the hard questions have to be asked. Like I said a few weeks back, with American Magic, its one thing to turn up before everyone else and look good with no one else around, but once the real teams turn up and start racing, thats where average teams are exposed.

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1 hour ago, Enzedel92 said:

THEY NEED TO CARVE PATRIOTS BOTTOM ON MONDAY.  AWFUL STICKY AKWARD ASS DROPPING HULL.

you mean make it sort of boatshaped and not like a flat topped sperm cell ???

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3 hours ago, FINS said:

Barker has to go

 

I agreed with getting rid of Deano from ETNZ, just didn't agree with how it was handled.

He is a good sailor, but not in the same league as the rest of these guys IMO.

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Deano is 48 years old, no one is in their prime at this age when it comes to sport. Terry Hutchison is 52 years old as well. Both of  them were slow in their tactics. In a country of over 300 million theirs got to better than these guys. 

Fire them both 

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58 minutes ago, jaysper said:

I agreed with getting rid of Deano from ETNZ, just didn't agree with how it was handled.

He is a good sailor, but not in the same league as the rest of these guys IMO.

Good sailors win... .   The AC is out of Barker's league ... He just a glorified club sailor with a " lame" state of mind.

 

Jimmy and Ben have that "Steely eyed" aggression back with ability to go for the jugular.

 

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56 minutes ago, mako23 said:

Deano is 48 years old, no one is in their prime at this age when it comes to sport. Terry Hutchison is 52 years old as well. Both of  them were slow in their tactics. In a country of over 300 million theirs got to better than these guys. 

Fire them both 

+1...  AM is a old man junket!...   

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4 minutes ago, Baconator said:

Good sailors win... .   The AC is out of Barker's league ... He just a glorified club sailor with a " lame" state of mind.

 

Jimmy and Ben have that "Steely eyed" aggression back with ability to go for the jugular.

 

Calling him a glorified club sailor is a bit ridiculous really.

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In these conditions the helm can only really sail the bit of water they are on top of and the stretch immediately in front. They cannot get their head up and connect the.dots, they need someone else doing that....that's Terry's job. .......but Terry isn't talking. Psychologically they need a change. Today was a lottery so kind of irrelevant, but the bigger picture is Terry needs to lead, with grit, through good and bad. Dean has his hands full. Boat also.needs to get a ligjt wind mode......somehow.

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55 minutes ago, Rainier said:

Everybody clamoring for a massive change is a fucking idiot.  The AC is a designers challenge, the players have very little to do with it.

Nothing can be further from the truth. With boats traveling nearly 4 times the wind speed putting your boat in one more knot of breeze than the opposition equates to an extra 4 knots of speed. 
In the old days a slower boat playing the shifts might reach parity with a faster boat. Today playing the shifts amounts to a large advantage of speed even if your boat is of an inferior design. 

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15 minutes ago, Chris UK said:

In these conditions the helm can only really sail the bit of water they are on top of and the stretch immediately in front. They cannot get their head up and connect the.dots, they need someone else doing that....that's Terry's job. .......but Terry isn't talking. Psychologically they need a change. Today was a lottery so kind of irrelevant, but the bigger picture is Terry needs to lead, with grit, through good and bad. Dean has his hands full. Boat also.needs to get a ligjt wind mode......somehow.

Similarly, I've been wondering about team dynamics... recent on-course decisions just don't seem to be up to the standard they displayed in the ACWS.

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7 hours ago, The_Alchemist said:

I didn't say the UK was slower over all.  The charts show that UK has constantly stronger winds and AM was able to go faster on a normalized wind speed.  UK did have a greater over all boat speed in up and down wind legs (but if AM had the same winds it would have been faster).

My mistake, apologies that I misread it reading when tired on phone. However whilst I agree UKs decision that keep the tactician free now looks like genius, I'd still be wary of your evaluation because I do think UKs anemometer reads higher even when they are next to each other

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12 hours ago, dorox said:

Don't jump to conclusions from this data: TWS and TWD are very unreliable, especially from INEOS. Their instruments add approx +1 kn to the wind reading seen on the buoys over the VirtualEye. Wind direction can be misleading, too.

By the way, does anyone have a photo of the wind instruments mounted on a buoy?

m4100_crop169014_1024x576_proportional_1

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9 hours ago, idontwan2know said:

The team dynamics when they get down are bad.

Somebody on the boat has to keep the crew in the race. One of Hutch or Deano has to be the guy, preferably both.

I doubt there's anybody on the shore who can jump in and provide that, so one of those two is going to have to step up.

Indeed, the skipper should fight for the team morale.

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Barker is and has been a great sailor. He's proven it in the AC, on the World Match Racing Tour, TP52s, X40s, etc. etc.

Where I don't think he's great is as a skipper on race day. Someone other than Dean needs to be in charge of tactics and leading the team so Dean can just drive. He's got too much on his plate and the team is making poor tactical decisions and lacking leadership.

The the start of race 2 yesterday was a great example. Being early for the start is not good, but penalties are not really that punitive in this regatta...panicking trying to slow down and dropping the boat off the foils to try and avoid a 50m penalty just doesn't show a team that's thinking about the big picture at all times.

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4 hours ago, Chris UK said:

In these conditions the helm can only really sail the bit of water they are on top of and the stretch immediately in front. They cannot get their head up and connect the.dots, they need someone else doing that....that's Terry's job. .......but Terry isn't talking. Psychologically they need a change. Today was a lottery so kind of irrelevant, but the bigger picture is Terry needs to lead, with grit, through good and bad. Dean has his hands full. Boat also.needs to get a ligjt wind mode......somehow.

4 hours ago, MaxHugen said:

Similarly, I've been wondering about team dynamics... recent on-course decisions just don't seem to be up to the standard they displayed in the ACWS.

Perhaps it's just the feed (I doubt it) but the difference in the on-board chatter and communication that you hear on INEOS and LuuuuuuuuunaRossaPradaPirelli on the one hand, compared to AM on the other, is striking, particularly in yesterday's races. AM sounded like a funeral. They sounded lost and frustrated that conditions were challenging whereas the other teams worked the problem in front of them through communication and teamwork. I'm not sure I've heard TH speak once.*  Right now, the crew looks to be the weakest part of this boat.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*In fairness to him, I have no idea what he sounds like when not in front of a microphone.

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8 minutes ago, porthos said:

Perhaps it's just the feed (I doubt it) but the difference in the on-board chatter and communication that you hear on INEOS and LuuuuuuuuunaRossaPradaPirelli on the one hand, compared to AM on the other, is striking, particularly in yesterday's races. AM sounded like a funeral. They sounded lost and frustrated that conditions were challenging whereas the other teams worked the problem in front of them through communication and teamwork. I'm not sure I've heard TH speak once.*  Right now, the crew looks to be the weakest part of this boat.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*In fairness to him, I have no idea what he sounds like when not in front of a microphone.

Not that I have a clew... but it's almost as though DB and TH have had a spat...

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5 minutes ago, idontwan2know said:

Barker is and has been a great sailor. He's proven it in the AC, on the World Match Racing Tour, TP52s, X40s, etc. etc.

Where I don't think he's great is as a skipper on race day. Someone other than Dean needs to be in charge of tactics and leading the team so Dean can just drive. He's got too much on his plate and the team is making poor tactical decisions and lacking leadership.

The the start of race 2 yesterday was a great example. Being early for the start is not good, but penalties are not really that punitive in this regatta...panicking trying to slow down and dropping the boat off the foils to try and avoid a 50m penalty just doesn't show a team that's thinking about the big picture at all times.

The boat has been designed and built and the helm has been picked.

Both are long term decisions that are very hard to change at short notice.   The boat seems fast. Dean is a great sailor.......but is he an extraordinary sailor? When AM were putting together their team, there was some criticism that AM team seemed slightly "old school" based on a group that had been sailing TP52s together and long term AC experience extending back to before foiling.

ETNZ has always been a team where the talent have come from high speed dinghy , cat and foiling moth background. Burling has that 6th sense at high speed.

Ineos has an extraordinary talented team of BA and GS. I cannot put my finger on it precisely but you sense that if they have a competitive boat, the talent is there.

Luna Rossa : I confess I dont really understand the two helm structure. Not so much because of alternating drivers, but because alternately doing big picture tactics.

AM has made its bed and difficult to change. Dean is truly great sailor....but as a USA supporter I kind of had hoped they had experimented with some raw talent along the way. Dean reminds me of Bottas.Put him in the right car and he has all the global talent to win races but he is not Lewis. What AM needed was Verstappen, combining the right boat with fearsome talent.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Dean reminds me of Bottas. Put him in the right car and he has all the global talent to win races but he is not Lewis. What AM needed was Verstappen, combining the right boat with fearsome talent.

 

 

 

Well written , I was thinking something similar but in the end this is where my thoughts went. Russel may be the real deal. 

AB3CA416-F79A-49E2-AD61-90CF63075EDB.jpeg

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I also think the combination of team (tactician, trim and flight , helm) and design team is all so critical that its hard to just pick on the helm. It is too early to draw any conclusions but boat seems competitive and team seems to work competently (bottas) .  After ACWS they looked like they had the ingredients to be the challenger. The landscape has changed because suddenly Ineos may have a competitive boat.

I think that AM can chalk one up tonight. Lets hope so.

It is so early. 

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It’s early days to make a call on the AM program - but I think we are seeing proof that the AC is still about the talent of the sailors.  Foiling is the future of high performance sailing globally.  Foiling is different than keel boat sailing - the feel and instincts are different.  Being a great keel boat sailor or great boxer doesn’t help.   The Kiwi program is lead by 3 of the best foiling sailors in the world.  And its not just on the water - it makes a huge difference to the design team to get the feedback from great foiling sailors.   The leaders of the AM program hate foiling - as they have stated.  They have built an afterguard built for keel boat racing.  So not surprising to see them in displacement mode.

Hope they turn it around.

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Just now, sosoomii said:

They’ve about as much chance as NYYC on today’s showing :)

and yet 3 weeks ago, AM had the best score among the challengers with 4 and 2 and the only team that beat ETNZ in a race.

Early stages in a rapidly evolving boat.

AM has had 3 races and has at least 9 more races to go before they can get eliminated . 

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2 hours ago, MaxHugen said:

Interesting bet selection at a French bookie:

image.png.09f42d9b37fb6eecd92848d8e8b4a587.png

I’m not so familiar with decimal odds, but does that mean you can place equal money on all the challengers (US, UK and Italy) and provided NZ don’t win you’ll still make a profit?

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So far we have seen a total of 4 short races in a very difficult course area.  One with huge down speed pot holes. 

I think it is kind of early to be throwing dirt on the coffin.

On the other hand, it seems that American Magic have made a design choice that focuses on smaller and flatter sails which are more efficient and faster once they are foiling, but have large down speed risks.  

They seem to always have the smaller jib set, and have pushed the area of the mainsail to the minimum.  Even yesterday their main seemed to have a smaller head than Prada or Ineos.  They also do not seem to push as much camber into the main. I assume this is by intent.  They also had the smallest foils on the water yesterday.  

Ineos only made the time limit by 2 minutes yesterday, so the judgement that speed in those conditions doesn’t matter because the race cannot be finished in the time limit, is not far wrong.  If the course hadn’t been shortened in both races, neither would have counted.  So one really could believe that these two losses were flukes sailed at the absolute minimum race-able conditions.  If you were going to risk something, being fast at the minimum condition might be one you would take.

SHC  

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4 minutes ago, Steve Clark said:

So far we have seen a total of 4 short races in a very difficult course area.  One with huge down speed pot holes. 

I think it is kind of early to be throwing dirt on the coffin.

On the other hand, it seems that American Magic have made a design choice that focuses on smaller and flatter sails which are more efficient and faster once they are foiling, but have large down speed risks.  

They seem to always have the smaller jib set, and have pushed the area of the mainsail to the minimum.  Even yesterday their main seemed to have a smaller head than Prada or Ineos.  They also do not seem to push as much camber into the main. I assume this is by intent.  They also had the smallest foils on the water yesterday.  

Ineos only made the time limit by 2 minutes yesterday, so the judgement that speed in those conditions doesn’t matter because the race cannot be finished in the time limit, is not far wrong.  If the course hadn’t been shortened in both races, neither would have counted.  So one really could believe that these two losses were flukes sailed at the absolute minimum race-able conditions.  If you were going to risk something, being fast at the minimum condition might be one you would take.

SHC  

Problem was, they got beaten yesterday in the medium range too.

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I'd feel better about AM if they were owning their mistakes. 

Instead the boat goes quiet when things aren't going their way. The other boats are great examples of how to communicate in a race. AM just isn't. 

In the media they lay the blame on things they have no control over - the wind, course, etc, instead of taking ownership of the things they are screwing up. 

It doesn't mean they won't turn it around, but they aren't in a good place right now. 

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55 minutes ago, sosoomii said:

I think the boat is good - or at least, the hull, foils and sails certainly look the part.  Not convinced about the helm, tactician or weather support though.  If you give the opposition a head start in every race then you gonna struggle.  

Making it pretty hard when they get the tactician to grind, it’s hard to look around analyse and make great calls when you spend a lot of the race looking into the bottom of the boat and trying to breath

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5 hours ago, marlowe said:

They're alright once they get off the ground.

It's the unscheduled and unwanted returns to the surface that are problematic...

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