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Sydney To Hobart 2018


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12 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Wasn't in the last Hobart race? 

An unknown quantity coming from New York Yacht Club to participate in their first Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race. Will be looking to compete with super-competitive TP52s including Ichi Ban.

They had planned on going and ran into some logistical and timing issues 

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OK...so I've nearly sobered up... and want to say a few things to the SA team that have followed the Voodoo story. Firstly  - Thank you for your support and input! From the outset I've put though

I was on shore for my live interview show, and then live with the ABC Grandstand radio for the start.  Channel 7 has full rights to all live vision - so there was really no point going on the wat

I have received dozen emails/private messages about my tracker for this year. I have updated to new Windy version and I hope it will work on boxing day https://gis.ee/sh/

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

SammyC you forget while these two races are around same racetrack length in N-B you don't have a terrestrial fence on one side just off the Rhumb Line unlike the S2H so N-B necessitates a much wider longitude spread and so increased data requirement for routing. That said you did point to me to failing to mention my rate was per model and ignored utilising multiple sources for maybe different proprietary versions of the same overarching models.

Certainly valid Jack. Broadband also changes things a bit I suspect, Iridium is probably slower than HF so inherently limits your data usage. With higher data rates I would be pulling down additional models and real time wind data through buoys and scatterometer data.

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On 12/15/2018 at 8:22 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Jas there is none other than maybe send small Xmas cards if sending a card late and you want it to get there.

Bwahahahaha - you’re aware of Australia Post’s reputation aren’t you?

 

If you send a Christmas card tomorrow it’ll be lucky to get there by Easter (2023).

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4 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Hey Couta did Voodoo get a paint job recently? Looks very well looked after. 

Nah SCANAS...paint is heavy!! A cut & polish, new cockpit anti-slip and some new graphics....every other dollar has gone into the new sail wardrobe!! She's ready and fully prepped -  Now, like everyone else, we're just waiting on the forecast....

 

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On 12/14/2018 at 9:52 PM, Curious said:

Yes, but do they have any other 100 foot canters to race against in those events and if not, isn't it being a big fish in a small pond?

Pretty much sums up WO in the S2H.

Lets be honest they've only had real competition in the last 3-4 years.

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So if the CYCA think multihulls are unsafe to race to Hobart... what are they going to say when the first full foiling monohull turns up? Ie full crewed IMOCA 60 ????? Or will they just move the stability requirements beyond their reach protecting 100 foot dinosaurs?

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1 hour ago, FinnFish said:

Pretty much sums up WO in the S2H.

Lets be honest they've only had real competition in the last 3-4 years.

They’ve raced every other supremaxi in the world. Should they go beat up on some porky Wally’s & Swan’s? 

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12 hours ago, Couta said:

Nah SCANAS...paint is heavy!! A cut & polish, new cockpit anti-slip and some new graphics....every other dollar has gone into the new sail wardrobe!! She's ready and fully prepped -  Now, like everyone else, we're just waiting on the forecast....

 

Looks good. That finger has the largest collection of 50’+ race yachts I’ve ever seen in the one place. 

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21 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

They’ve raced every other supremaxi in the world. Should they go beat up on some porky Wally’s & Swan’s? 

Oh come on Scanas, a lot of WO victory's pre 2012/2013 were against either non-existent or very weak opposition.

It's only in the last 3-4 years with the entry of several well funded maxi programs that the race for LH has becoming interesting again.  

Would be nice to see some younger blood in the back of the boat though.  

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2 hours ago, FinnFish said:

Pretty much sums up WO in the S2H.

Lets be honest they've only had real competition in the last 3-4 years.

Dunno about that;

2005 she had to beat her near sister Alfa plus Skandia/Wild Thing and the 100 ft fixed keeler Konica Minolta/Lahana and Langman with Ingvals's smaller older boat.

2006 she had to race Wild Thing and Maximus, so there was one hacked up older boat and one flat-out new 100 ft canting race machine for WOXI to beat.

2007 she had to race the 100ft canting racer/cruiser ICAP Leopard.

2009 they had to race the near sister Alfa, Loyal, Wild Thing, the 100 ft canting racer/cruiser ICAP Leopard, Ludde's old 90 footer, and the 100 ft Lahana.

2010 they had Loyal and Wild Thing, both 100 ft all-out racing canters, plus Lahana.

I haven't checked every year but it looks as if apart from 2007 she had to beat at least one flat-out new-ish 100ft canter each year, and sometimes two of them. Maximus wasn't "very weak" in terms of pedigree. Alfa certainly wasn't, nor was Loyal. At no stage did she really have "non existent" competition by the standards of the Hobart or the comparable Fastnet and Bermuda races. In fact it was arguably overseas the overseas races that had the weak line honours competition in the monos.

 

 

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Wild Oats is worth a bet on the Hobart for Line Honours given her odds, either conditions or gear failure could strike Comanche? Who knows? When we get an accurate weather forecast we might know more? In a blow and in gear breaking conditions which boat would you prefer? Oats or Comanche? 

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47 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Wild Oats is worth a bet on the Hobart for Line Honours given her odds, either conditions or gear failure could strike Comanche? Who knows? When we get an accurate weather forecast we might know more? In a blow and in gear breaking conditions which boat would you prefer? Oats or Comanche? 

One of the Volvo 70's as all the 100 footer might struggle in a big blow, ie gale force conditions on the nose!

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15 minutes ago, Chucky said:

One of the Volvo 70's as all the 100 footer might struggle in a big blow, ie gale force conditions on the nose!

Which ones....?  The old Mal hart built (Chinese entry) ... It won't get there based on recent form and no training with a new crew....

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3 hours ago, despacio avenue said:

Witty spoke too soon about the skiff race; he and the boys had to return to the dock in the third race due to unspecified equipment damage. 

 

Damaged ego after that mark rounding?:)

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17 hours ago, PIL66 said:

Which ones....?  The old Mal hart built (Chinese entry) ... It won't get there based on recent form and no training with a new crew....

Crew have been out here training for a few months, bolstered by a few solid Aus crew. Apparently lots of money spent on boat. That said the designer doesn't have a lot of runs on the board. 

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2 hours ago, Rawhide said:

Crew have been out here training for a few months, bolstered by a few solid Aus crew. Apparently lots of money spent on boat. That said the designer doesn't have a lot of runs on the board. 

Seams they are prepared to spend but time is running out...99% of the training was done on the Davidson Aftershock so not ideal. Training is done by Aussies (SM and MF) through an interpreter which again is not ideal... The practice runs on the boat have been few and hampered by breakages.

I applaud the effort but won't be putting my hard earned on them... 

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The odds have certainly narrowed for Comanche and Ichi Ban. 

Comanche - Opened at $2.50 now at $1.85 Line Honours

Ichi Ban - Opened at $4.50 now at $2.85 Handicap

Teasing Machine narrowed to $4.75

Privateer - Out from $10.00 to $14.00

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/sailing/sydney-to-hobart/Sydney-to-Hobart-2018-4408639

 

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7 hours ago, PIL66 said:

Seams they are prepared to spend but time is running out...99% of the training was done on the Davidson Aftershock so not ideal. Training is done by Aussies (SM and MF) through an interpreter which again is not ideal... The practice runs on the boat have been few and hampered by breakages.

I applaud the effort but won't be putting my hard earned on them... 

We are taking rum jug bets on irc. 

But you'd have to be in the race.

Guess there won't be too many here that are actually sailing in the race.

 

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2 hours ago, Feilberg said:

We are taking rum jug bets on irc. 

But you'd have to be in the race.

Guess there won't be too many here that are actually sailing in the race.

 

You do know now that is against the World Sailing rules to bet on races you are apart of.  Stupid rule I know, but it is a rule.

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9 minutes ago, trt131 said:

You do know now that is against the World Sailing rules to bet on races you are apart of.  Stupid rule I know, but it is a rule.

Yes. Rules rules rules. I'd love to see that enforced over a jug of rum

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7 hours ago, hoppy said:

Looks like no Sailorgirl coverage of the start

From her Facebook 

At least it wil be streamed on the CYCA site and SG will appear on their stream

 

http://rolexsydneyhobart.com/news/2018/pre-race/rolex-sydney-hobart-yacht-race-covered-from-all-angles/

She should do a Roy and HG style voice over coverage.

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13 hours ago, terrafirma said:

The odds have certainly narrowed for Comanche and Ichi Ban. 

Comanche - Opened at $2.50 now at $1.85 Line Honours

Ichi Ban - Opened at $4.50 now at $2.85 Handicap

Teasing Machine narrowed to $4.75

Privateer - Out from $10.00 to $14.00

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/sailing/sydney-to-hobart/Sydney-to-Hobart-2018-4408639

 

Plenty of good boats not even on sportsbets list and a few on there where you would have to wonder why?

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34 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

She should do a Roy and HG style voice over coverage.

Live from the Card Table? 

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14 hours ago, terrafirma said:

The odds have certainly narrowed for Comanche and Ichi Ban. 

Comanche - Opened at $2.50 now at $1.85 Line Honours

Ichi Ban - Opened at $4.50 now at $2.85 Handicap

Teasing Machine narrowed to $4.75

Privateer - Out from $10.00 to $14.00

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/sailing/sydney-to-hobart/Sydney-to-Hobart-2018-4408639

 

What's driving the change in the odds?

Weather forecasts?

Oh, and I can't open the link due to my location.  Any chance that you can post all the super maxi odds?

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48 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

People betting. 

Ok, stupid question.  

What is driving people to bet on particular boats?

For example, some horses do better at some tracks versus others.

Whats the local goss on why people are choosing one boat  horse over another?

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10 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

Ok, stupid question.  

What is driving people to bet on particular boats?

For example, some horses do better at some tracks versus others.

Whats the local goss on why people are choosing one boat  horse over another?

How long is a piece of string.... I don’t think there is any local gossip, people make their own opinions based on hundreds of factors. You’re overthinking it. 

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34 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

Ok, stupid question.  

What is driving people to bet on particular boats?

For example, some horses do better at some tracks versus others.

Whats the local goss on why people are choosing one boat  horse over another?

The 2 main boats are being driven as follows: 

1. Comanche Line Honours - Odds started at $2.50 which is good for any clear and strong favourite, now it's being dragged back in because people are backing it

2. Ichi Ban - Handicap . Odds started at $4.50 which is once again really good for the clear favourite, it's not just winning on IRC it's smashing other boats

The answer is that there isn't strong competition for these 2 other than Oats and I'd say 5-6 boats on handicap weather being averaged. The weather can change this off course if we get a big blow or a system that favours the smaller boats. Personally I think the 52 footers are sailing so fast now they get to Hobart in a couple of weather systems, the smallest boats sometimes sail through 3-4 weather systems. We see so many times the smaller boats leading on IRC at some stage during the race but they are usually miles out of Hobart whereas the 52's are fast enough to get the race done quickly. Breakages or issues on any boat can also change the outcome but typically the best prepared boats have less chance of not sailing a clean and fast race. 

 

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16 hours ago, Feilberg said:

We are taking rum jug bets on irc. 

But you'd have to be in the race.

Guess there won't be too many here that are actually sailing in the race.

 

Nice to have you back Captain Feilberg.... now that you're here I will let you update the good folk on your program ..... And I will bet you $100 and a Jug you don't get top 5.... I know where you live

Hopefully I will see you there to collect....

13 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

I'd sign up - but I suspect you may not wait around long enough :)

Where ..at Woollongong ...?  

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7 minutes ago, hoppy said:

The latest PW forecast has 15-20 easterlies for the first 24hr switching to 25-30 NNE all the way to Tasman I for the next 12hrs. At about 3am Friday it will switch to 25 SW at Tasman I and the SW will work its way north over the next 12 hrs.

Maybe this could be a good forecast for Couta and other boats bigger than the TP52, or perhaps a race for a Maxi tatts win?

Windyty EC model is saying light NE going to light to moderate NE most of the way.  GF model is a little different though.  Too far out for any certainty. 

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2 hours ago, PIL66 said:

Nice to have you back Captain Feilberg.... now that you're here I will let you update the good folk on your program ..... And I will bet you $100 and a Jug you don't get top 5.... I know where you live

Hopefully I will see you there to collect....

Where ..at Woollongong ...?  

I'd love to take that bet but your not in the race. 

 

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1 hour ago, PIL66 said:

Correct but i don't need to be for the bet

How about the race home .... you, me and Scally...? MP is keen

I know you struggle with reading pil but i am only betting jugs of rum on irc with other competitors. No cash just a jug a rum and only if you are in the race.

 

No bets with lounge room hobart racers sorry.

 

I'll happily bet on the race home I'm on a A330 so good vmg!

 

 

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9 hours ago, Hitchhiker said:

Oh, and I can't open the link due to my location.  Any chance that you can post all the super maxi odds?

Line Honours
 
Comanche 1.85
Wild Oats XI (Sail Number 10001)3.50
Black Jack4.50
Scallywag10.00
Infotrack12.00
 
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8 hours ago, Feilberg said:

I know you struggle with reading pil but i am only betting jugs of rum on irc with other competitors. No cash just a jug a rum and only if you are in the race.

 

No bets with lounge room hobart racers sorry.

 

I'll happily bet on the race home I'm on a A330 so good vmg!

 

 

I'll take it....you're on!

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16 hours ago, Feilberg said:

I know you struggle with reading pil but i am only betting jugs of rum on irc with other competitors. No cash just a jug a rum and only if you are in the race.

 

No bets with lounge room hobart racers sorry.

 

I'll happily bet on the race home I'm on a A330 so good vmg!

 

 

Wise move

8 hours ago, Couta said:

I'll take it....you're on!

Yes......will be fun to watch Feilberg hand that over....

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1 hour ago, DtM said:

You haven't been following this thread if you don't know the Couta boat :lol:

He’s been here long enough and enough downvotes to show, I wonder who this poster was before the name change?

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Live Briefing at CYC courtesy of Nic.

BOM weather dude days fresh NE through to Thursday to Bass Strait then uncertain but one prospect is it going south and variable.

 

 

Sounds like a big boat race if this forecast is accurate? Personally I think a little too much instability in the weather to predict yet? Sounds like Comanche would enjoy this if she can break the back of the race before it turns light and the angle in the run down is right

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Didn't know Ed and Midnight Rambler had gone to a Sydney 36? Interesting choice of boat after the Ker 40 footer I would thave thought? 

http://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/news/2018/pre-race/entrant-spotlight-ed-psaltis/

I hope this wasn't the reason to change, animation of a boat called Midnight Rambler in 70 foot waves...! 

 

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2 hours ago, DtM said:

You haven't been following this thread if you don't know the Couta boat :lol:

Correct because it's full of shit and dickheads that think they know a whole lot more than they do ike most of the threads here. 

Same dickheads slinging shit every year and fuck all posters that actually do the race.

Hence my offer of a jug on irc with other competitors. 

 

So far 1 week out, 1 jug been placed.

Lol

 

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8 minutes ago, Feilberg said:

Correct because it's full of shit and dickheads that think they know a whole lot more than they do ike most of the threads here. 

Same dickheads slinging shit every year and fuck all posters that actually do the race.

Hence my offer of a jug on irc with other competitors. 

 

So far 1 week out, 1 jug been placed.

Lol

 

It's Christmas get it all off your chest..! Seasons greetings too. I love most rum too. The Kracken, Sailor Jerry, Cap'n Morgan Black......

 

piratepots_jug-copy.png

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32 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Sounds like a big boat race if this forecast is accurate? Personally I think a little too much instability in the weather to predict yet? Sounds like Comanche would enjoy this if she can break the back of the race before it turns light and the angle in the run down is right

The models I ran on the 17th and the 18th had GFS slower than Euro by four to five hours or so.  Today was a big reversal with the Euro slower by some 14 hours. That tends to indicate quite a bit of instability and uncertainty to me. 

The last GFS I ran just now was 2 hours faster than this morning, (2 days 3 hours), super maxi (80% of polar).  Euro hasn't updated yet.  

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1 hour ago, mad said:

He’s been here long enough and enough downvotes to show, I wonder who this poster was before the name change?

Hasn't posted for more than six years and is now here all piss and wind for his first S2H.

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2 minutes ago, DtM said:

Hasn't posted for more than six years and is now here all piss and wind for his first S2H.

My point exactly. It's actually my 12th hobart. 

Another know it all that knows fuck all

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53 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

The models I ran on the 17th and the 18th had GFS slower than Euro by four to five hours or so.  Today was a big reversal with the Euro slower by some 14 hours. That tends to indicate quite a bit of instability and uncertainty to me. 

The last GFS I ran just now was 2 hours faster than this morning, (2 days 3 hours), super maxi (80% of polar).  Euro hasn't updated yet.  

Keep em coming. Those forecasts. I put some money on the Indian early to get the best odds but was worried about too light or a big blow. Looks like the big blow won't come and I hope they are almost home by the 27th if it goes light then

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

Didn't know Ed and Midnight Rambler had gone to a Sydney 36? Interesting choice of boat after the Ker 40 footer I would thave thought? 

http://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/news/2018/pre-race/entrant-spotlight-ed-psaltis/

I hope this wasn't the reason to change, animation of a boat called Midnight Rambler in 70 foot waves...! 

 

Fuck me that's one solid rig. Who built it do you know ?

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58 minutes ago, Feilberg said:

My point exactly. It's actually my 12th hobart. 

Another know it all that knows fuck all

Golly gosh, if that is the measure then I have every bit of the experience you have, dickhead.

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1 hour ago, Feilberg said:

My point exactly. It's actually my 12th hobart. 

Another know it all that knows fuck all

Dude - may I give you a word of advice?

It's not considered good form to self-aggrandize by denigrating others.  What do you gain by calling others dickheads when you don't know who they are and what they've done?  Back in my day you'd cop a flogging behind the Shipwright's Arms for mouthing off.

Tone it down, and good luck for the race.  Remember, these blokes may be the people you are drinking and partying with in Hobart - hopefully you aren't too good for that as well?

Sorry, I can't take up your bet - my last S-H was over 40 years ago.  I just watch from my lounge room these days ;)

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

Keep em coming. Those forecasts. I put some money on the Indian early to get the best odds but was worried about too light or a big blow. Looks like the big blow won't come and I hope they are almost home by the 27th if it goes light then

10%.

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3 hours ago, Feilberg said:

Correct because it's full of shit and dickheads that think they know a whole lot more than they do ike most of the threads here. 

Same dickheads slinging shit every year and fuck all posters that actually do the race.

Hence my offer of a jug on irc with other competitors. 

 

So far 1 week out, 1 jug been placed.

Lol

 

Jeez MF... tell us how you really feel.... you must be home sick or miss your puppy..... Couta is sailing with Box

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