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7 hours ago, Feilberg said:

My point exactly. It's actually my 12th hobart. 

Another know it all that knows fuck all

 

6 hours ago, Recidivist said:

Dude - may I give you a word of advice?

It's not considered good form to self-aggrandize by denigrating others.  What do you gain by calling others dickheads when you don't know who they are and what they've done?  Back in my day you'd cop a flogging behind the Shipwright's Arms for mouthing off.

Tone it down, and good luck for the race.  Remember, these blokes may be the people you are drinking and partying with in Hobart - hopefully you aren't too good for that as well?

Sorry, I can't take up your bet - my last S-H was over 40 years ago.  I just watch from my lounge room these days ;)

Rec I just got a good deal on one of these, if you want a linky. The hard bit though is taking a chainsaw to the companionway to get the fucker in B4 Wednesday. When Feelmyburger gets on and is sitting in a dementia ward manufacturing drool in the shape of Tasman Is, I'm hoping his family and my estate will connect on Gumtree..

chair-arm-furniture-stores-tv-ikea-nyc-armchair-warehouse-near-me.jpg

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OK...so I've nearly sobered up... and want to say a few things to the SA team that have followed the Voodoo story. Firstly  - Thank you for your support and input! From the outset I've put though

I was on shore for my live interview show, and then live with the ABC Grandstand radio for the start.  Channel 7 has full rights to all live vision - so there was really no point going on the wat

I have received dozen emails/private messages about my tracker for this year. I have updated to new Windy version and I hope it will work on boxing day https://gis.ee/sh/

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3 hours ago, jackolantern said:

All of the other 52s are going to be also-rans to Ichi Ban. None as old and refined (rags doesn’t count) as Quest/Balance to really inject some all-around  to the handicap discussion in the 52 foot band. The Cookson 50 Privateer is a breed that has never been seen in Aus. They’re racing with an inclined keel pin to make lift at high speeds, high modulus mast, pristine boat prep, and very professional crew. Good luck Mr. Allen  

Its reachy enough for the injun to safely be my fave for line honors. 

Many of the Quest/Balance crew are on Gweilo this year. 

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4 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

weather looking more interesting.. a stalled front on the South coast could see the fat girls park up in the light stuff first night.

Plus get tough for them after that while there is still some gas from the north for those behind. However odds of that transition and that after happening (which actually replicates models last week) are diminishing quickly. We will have a good idea by Saturday.

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2 hours ago, hoppy said:

Div 0

Better to be the small boat than the big boat. Also keeps you away from Ichy

Can't argue with this,  you would have a greater chance of being the only boat of your size/speed after that it comes down to whether the weather suits your size/speed.  Oh by the way you have to sail it fast & in all the right directions too!

Like Frantic I'm surprised that you have the Div 0 option without a canter,  and on the down side the Cookson should be there.

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7 minutes ago, Jason AUS said:

How on earth does Ichi Ban rate one pip lower than their old boat (Envy) ??

It's a black art, this rating caper...and yep Div 0 is currently made up of canters...so it's pretty arbitrary wrt actual rating and LOA. As for Itchy Bum and being "away from her"....meh, its the tatts trophy we're all chasing...and it all seems pretty close. In practical terms we give it 4hrs 33mins on a 53 hr race (current model prediction)...which doesn't sound crazy.

Gut feel is to be the small boat in the big boat fleet, but the truth is that it will actually depend on the forecast which is still dodgy....

Decision time for us...and all the other 60-70 footers...will be tomorrow after the latest forecast numbers are released...until then....happy to hear your thoughts!

 

 

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9 hours ago, Feilberg said:

My point exactly. It's actually my 12th hobart. 

Another know it all that knows fuck all

Hey ass-wipe, I have had the misfortune to sail with some dickheads who have (somehow) completed more than twice as many Hobarts as you (claim to) have done and I wouldn't give some of them deck space in a no-extras twilight race if it was my choice. Sailing Hobart races is not what makes you a good sailor; that's just distance.

There are plenty of seasoned Hobart strap hangers that know fuck all, believe me. The really good ones usually can't remember how many they have done because that's not what matters to them.

Introduce yourself at the Customs House and I might even buy you a beer. You do drink, don't you?

.

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1 hour ago, hoppy said:

then why care about which division? ;)

You can chase the Tatts in either division, but if it's not a big boat race, in div 0 you might get a consolation prize ;)

Hoppy, 

 

That sounds like a very shallow way of winning don’t you think even if it’s only a div 0 win ?

 

If it’s a big boat race you say “I was in the wrong division and the other boats were all 70 to 100 footers how could I beat them”.

 

If it’s a smaller boat race and you win you say “ aren’t I good I beat the 100 footers on handicap”  

 

The way I see it is, I’d like to beat the other boats around my own size and handicap. That way when I tell people about my win I can look them in the eye and say “I won my division and I beat the other boats around my own size and handicap and it was a hot fleet”. 

 

Pulpit 

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Huge difference in the models this morning.

Euro has you all getting punched in the throat for the first 10 hours with 18 to 20 from the SSE.

GFS has nearly the complete opposite, 10 from the NNE building to 20's and backing.

I know which one I'd rather start with!!

Euro 13 hours slower, obviously.

 

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That far out I know which one I would believe as well. GFS starts to fall apart when you leave the continental united states and get about halfway across the Atlantic. I wouldn't put much faith in it especially for a longer term forecast...

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3 hours ago, Hitchhiker said:

Huge difference in the models this morning.

Euro has you all getting punched in the throat for the first 10 hours with 18 to 20 from the SSE.

GFS has nearly the complete opposite, 10 from the NNE building to 20's and backing.

I know which one I'd rather start with!!

Euro 13 hours slower, obviously.

 

18-20 a punch in the throat? Is 25-30 a kick in the nuts? Where do we go from there?

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9 hours ago, Flatbag said:

Hey ass-wipe, I have had the misfortune to sail with some dickheads who have (somehow) completed more than twice as many Hobarts as you (claim to) have done and I wouldn't give some of them deck space in a no-extras twilight race if it was my choice. Sailing Hobart races is not what makes you a good sailor; that's just distance.

There are plenty of seasoned Hobart strap hangers that know fuck all, believe me. The really good ones usually can't remember how many they have done because that's not what matters to them.

Introduce yourself at the Customs House and I might even buy you a beer. You do drink, don't you?

.

Yep .... 100%

Feelmyburger drinks, but not well.....

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4 hours ago, Hitchhiker said:

Huge difference in the models this morning.

Euro has you all getting punched in the throat for the first 10 hours with 18 to 20 from the SSE.

GFS has nearly the complete opposite, 10 from the NNE building to 20's and backing.

I know which one I'd rather start with!!

Euro 13 hours slower, obviously.

 

BOM agrees with EMC -- park up off Jervis and restart ? 

But this far out, not sure I trust any of them.

 

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Nervous times for Oats and Comanche looking at the weather and waiting. Oats must be liking what they are seeing so far. Having said that weather forecasts aren't agreeing so I think we don't have an accurate forecast yet? Oats narrowed a little to $3.00 and Comanche $2.00. Not sure what to make of BJ's chances as they seem to have lost the light weather edge they had with the mods? The 52's right in the sweet spot of uncertain weather IMO.

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17 hours ago, Feilberg said:

Being told to tone it down on S.A. that's gold.

Fair enough - this place was founded on smack and talking shit.  It appears you're good at it, so keep it up.  I hope your result reflects your attitude.

 

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Just saw the latest forecast...hmmm
If it's right and we don't make it thru before the shut down as per Clouds prediction, then the Big Boats win everything...
That said, we won't be able to hold off the TP's either...
OK...
reviewing the numbers and the options here's my thinking..
Div 0 is canters.
Canters lose their relative advantage in the lighter air....and are penalised in light air.
If forecast is for a long transition/lighter air, we are happy to be in Div 0 with the canters
In Div 0 the boat that's a worry is Teasing Machine. (1.386 or we give them 5mins 35secs/Hr)
In Div 1 it's Itchy.
Based on the competition if it's smaller boats conditions then we'll struggle to podium in Div 1...there are lots of TP's!  However we'll still do OK in Div 0.
Bottom line is...and it's dependant on the conditions....I think we're better off in Div 0.
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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

Nervous times for Oats and Comanche looking at the weather and waiting. Oats must be liking what they are seeing so far. Having said that weather forecasts aren't agreeing so I think we don't have an accurate forecast yet? Oats narrowed a little to $3.00 and Comanche $2.00. Not sure what to make of BJ's chances as they seem to have lost the light weather edge they had with the mods? The 52's right in the sweet spot of uncertain weather IMO.

Don't write off BJ's light weather edge from one Harbour race over an hour or so which was a pure soldiers course with no passing lanes and they also had to deal with a shitload of power boat wash and chop all race which WOXI didn't. Whoever won that start was always going to win that race. Credit to WOXI for doing it though.

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1 hour ago, Flippin Out said:

Don't write off BJ's light weather edge from one Harbour race over an hour or so which was a pure soldiers course with no passing lanes and they also had to deal with a shitload of power boat wash and chop all race which WOXI didn't. Whoever won that start was always going to win that race. Credit to WOXI for doing it though.

Yeah hope your right. I'm seeing some VMG running early on in heavish pressure and Oats will love this. They are not burying the nose anymore and will make big gains on the fleet. If BJ can hang in there until the park up (If this is how it goes down) then they could do well. Comanche will sail some extra miles but could generate a sizeable lead at the start if she has some angle in the sails? Looking forward to an accurate forecast though

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1 hour ago, jackolantern said:

All this Tatts discussion.... had to go back and realize it’s been 11 years since a US boat won it, and to that end the previous American boat that won it was Kialoa in the 80s. 

Gotta be feeling that Privateer looks good for this one. The talent onboard is unbelievable. 

Ok, so I had to check out the team, then moved to Prospector.  How is Artie Means not the designated navigator?

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Now that the splits have been published, what are the Anarchists prognostications for IRC divisional honours?

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Good to see Australian Sailing getting behind the big race and its sponsors. AS are running a big promo for Zikh on their FB page referring to the Hobart race when Musto are the official clothing sponsor and no doubt pay serious bucks to be there. Classic ambush marketing. What a bunch of self-serving cunts. But we knew that didn't we?

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17 hours ago, Flatbag said:

Hey ass-wipe, I have had the misfortune to sail with some dickheads who have (somehow) completed more than twice as many Hobarts as you (claim to) have done and I wouldn't give some of them deck space in a no-extras twilight race if it was my choice. Sailing Hobart races is not what makes you a good sailor; that's just distance.

There are plenty of seasoned Hobart strap hangers that know fuck all, believe me. The really good ones usually can't remember how many they have done because that's not what matters to them.

Introduce yourself at the Customs House and I might even buy you a beer. You do drink, don't you?

.

Lol I'm sure you can find me. I think i have appointments out back of the shippies.

Not sure I'd be able to find you. There'll be flat bags everywhere in that place which one will you be? The flat bag lying in the human filth on the floor of the cubical with the rest of them? ;-)

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Feilberg said:

Lol I'm sure you can find me. I think i have appointments out back of the shippies.

Not sure I'd be able to find you. There'll be flat bags everywhere in that place which one will you be? The flat bag lying in the human filth on the floor of the cubical with the rest of them? ;-)

 

 

 

I had no idea the Shippies had become a gay bar. The things you learn here.

CH is more my scene.

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7 minutes ago, Flatbag said:

I had no idea the Shippies had become a gay bar. The things you learn here.

CH is more my scene.

FYI customs is a gay bar every other week if the year. NTTIAWWT. 

So now we know your scene.

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9 minutes ago, Feilberg said:

FYI customs is a gay bar every other week if the year. NTTIAWWT. 

So now we know your scene.

I would like to extend an invitation to you to walk into the Customs House after  if you arrive in Hobart and tell the assembled multitudes what you have written here. And its OK to bring your Mum too.

That crowd loves a good dismembering.

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5 minutes ago, Flatbag said:

I would like to extend an invitation to you to walk into the Customs House after  if you arrive in Hobart and tell the assembled multitudes what you have written here. And its OK to bring your Mum too.

That crowd loves a good dismembering.

Yawn so predictable.

You on for an irc jug or not?

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Latest BOM Forecast looks better for Comanche although she may need to gybe a fair bit to keep the heat on. The forecast off Sydney around 2pm looks strong so I think Comanche will have her fat arse smoking for a while. However it gets tricky off Montague Island from late Wednesday to Thursday early morning however Bom doesn't show maps off shore but I suspect depending on currents etc that's where the big boats will be. Certainly conditions suit Oats as well. The interesting bit will be just after the start to see how the other 100's go running with 25 Knots? There looks to be enough pressure off Tassie when they get there too. Forecast is certainly moving around still

Forecast may yet suit Chutzpah if the TP52's somehow get held up? Very hard to tip against Ichi Ban though they are going better than they did last year and they won that one. Could be back to back? Not sure the conditions are for Teasing Machine? Let's see how the 60-65's are going just after the start? 

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55 minutes ago, Flatbag said:

Good to see Australian Sailing getting behind the big race and its sponsors. AS are running a big promo for Zikh on their FB page referring to the Hobart race when Musto are the official clothing sponsor and no doubt pay serious bucks to be there. Classic ambush marketing. What a bunch of self-serving cunts. But we knew that didn't we?

You seem confused.

Australian sailing is not the CYCA.

Musto sponsors the cyca hobart race.

Zhik can do what they want on the Australian Sailing fb page.

Zero connection, zero ambushes 

 

 

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All the CYCA club gear is Musto, so it is an ongoing arrangement. Some pretty nice stuff they have too. The Zhik sale (promoted here on the mythical front page also) - is just a Christmas thing and also celebrates the great race south on the 26th. Who gives a toss. I just saved about $300 on RRP on Zhik stuff I have had my eye on for a while. (Thanks Santa). And I will also look forward to pouring over the unsold S2H gear when the CYCA puts it on sale in a few weeks from now. If you search long and hard enough, Quantum Sails, Norths and others - like Melges - all have mega sales going on right now. 

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2 minutes ago, richiec said:

All the CYCA club gear is Musto, so it is an ongoing arrangement. Some pretty nice stuff they have too. The Zhik sale (promoted here on the mythical front page also) - is just a Christmas thing and also celebrates the great race south on the 26th. Who gives a toss. I just saved about $300 on RRP on Zhik stuff I have had my eye on for a while. (Thanks Santa). And I will also look forward to pouring over the unsold S2H gear when the CYCA puts it on sale in a few weeks from now. If you search long and hard enough, Quantum Sails, Norths and others - like Melges - all have mega sales going on right now. 

Me too. Reckon at 50% off they came down to where they should be.! Overpriced IMO. Anyway I grabbed a Jacket and a PFD. Took me a while to get the order through reckon the SA front page notice had their servers in meltdown. There might be others that think the same richiec.? :D

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Yeah, my order yesterday shat itself midway through the transaction. I came back tonight and it went through no problems. Yes, agree on the price. 50% off is very handy, but full Zhik RRP - is too high for what I want to pay - same with most sailing gear in AUS. I stock up on gear and clobber if passing through the USA. San Diego - bloody hell, that place is like sailing Disneyland! 

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46 minutes ago, richiec said:

Yeah, my order yesterday shat itself midway through the transaction. I came back tonight and it went through no problems. Yes, agree on the price. 50% off is very handy, but full Zhik RRP - is too high for what I want to pay - same with most sailing gear in AUS. I stock up on gear and clobber if passing through the USA. San Diego - bloody hell, that place is like sailing Disneyland! 

Importer must be making the extra $’s between US & AU prices as individual shops don’t seem to want to discount much usually. 

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1 hour ago, SCANAS said:

Importer must be making the extra $’s between US & AU prices as individual shops don’t seem to want to discount much usually. 

Yeah they jumped on the SA Hobart train and nearly cooked their servers. Reckon 50% off is more where they need to be? That ain't gunna happen? 

We are nearly at the business end gang and this is where you sniff the Salts and say take it on..! 

No shame here, who do we want to win...?

LH: _________________________________________________________

HC:_________________________________________________________

 

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4 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Yeah they jumped on the SA Hobart train and nearly cooked their servers. Reckon 50% off is more where they need to be? That ain't gunna happen? 

We are nearly at the business end gang and this is where you sniff the Salts and say take it on..! 

No shame here, who do we want to win...?

LH: _________________________________________________________

HC:_________________________________________________________

 

Maybe the question ought to be which model do we want to win? 

S2Hcomps.JPG

S2hcompic.JPG

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22 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Anyone know who is replacing Spithill on Comanche? And who will be driving at the start? Will they chase another helmsman? 

Cooney is driving the start. Brad Jackson sailing master with John Hildebrand, Pablo Arrarte and Tony Rae in the back of the bus. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, richiec said:

Yeah, my order yesterday shat itself midway through the transaction. I came back tonight and it went through no problems. Yes, agree on the price. 50% off is very handy, but full Zhik RRP - is too high for what I want to pay - same with most sailing gear in AUS. I stock up on gear and clobber if passing through the USA. San Diego - bloody hell, that place is like sailing Disneyland! 

Brought back a Henri LLoyd coat recently,  $60 delivered on line in the US on Black Friday, $Aus 330 here in Hobart..

 

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36 minutes ago, ASP said:

Cooney is driving the start. Brad Jackson sailing master with John Hildebrand, Pablo Arrarte and Tony Rae in the back of the bus. 

 

 

He speaks well and it sounds like he and they really know the boat now. The electric winches and tuned sail plan make them more of an all rounder but fat is fat if it's light. The big one he hinted that they sailed wrong angles last year and hence sailed more miles, if they can fix that it's a key factor IMO

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6 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

He speaks well and it sounds like he and they really know the boat now. The electric winches and tuned sail plan make them more of an all rounder but fat is fat if it's light. The big one he hinted that they sailed wrong angles last year and hence sailed more miles, if they can fix that it's a key factor IMO

That’s a big admission to make. 

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10 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Importer must be making the extra $’s between US & AU prices as individual shops don’t seem to want to discount much usually. 

Zhik AUS is actually the manufacturer/importer, and distributes to the Pacific rim from Sydney. They do make sure that their pricing is in line with what the other brands are selling for, but the reality is that as an Australian company their global ops and design team is in Sydney and those wages are carried here.

 

The reason that those retailers won’t do much discounting is that they’re traditional bricks and mortar chandleries with big overheads in rent, electricity and staff wages (and a poor online presence). The retailers who have a strong online presence (and there are two in particular) will periodically offer discounts as their warehouses tend to be a spare bedroom - so their overheads are a fraction of the cost. But those are the guys who chose to embrace e-commerce rather than to have a website that you can’t actually purchase from.

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35 minutes ago, Jason AUS said:

Zhik AUS is actually the manufacturer/importer, and distributes to the Pacific rim from Sydney. They do make sure that their pricing is in line with what the other brands are selling for, but the reality is that as an Australian company their global ops and design team is in Sydney and those wages are carried here.

 

The reason that those retailers won’t do much discounting is that they’re traditional bricks and mortar chandleries with big overheads in rent, electricity and staff wages (and a poor online presence). The retailers who have a strong online presence (and there are two in particular) will periodically offer discounts as their warehouses tend to be a spare bedroom - so their overheads are a fraction of the cost. But those are the guys who chose to embrace e-commerce rather than to have a website that you can’t actually purchase from.

I for one, put a decent order in! More than happy to save 50% of RRP.

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1 hour ago, Jason AUS said:

Zhik AUS is actually the manufacturer/importer, and distributes to the Pacific rim from Sydney. They do make sure that their pricing is in line with what the other brands are selling for, but the reality is that as an Australian company their global ops and design team is in Sydney and those wages are carried here.

 

The reason that those retailers won’t do much discounting is that they’re traditional bricks and mortar chandleries with big overheads in rent, electricity and staff wages (and a poor online presence). The retailers who have a strong online presence (and there are two in particular) will periodically offer discounts as their warehouses tend to be a spare bedroom - so their overheads are a fraction of the cost. But those are the guys who chose to embrace e-commerce rather than to have a website that you can’t actually purchase from.

That's true Jason, however only whilst Zhik can differentiate their product enough to justify the expense and customers are buying it to the extent that model works. If you could buy something very similar and of the same quality for 30-40% less and it's public knowledge they could be in trouble? A great example is the snow ski product, people were trying on something that's $900 or $1200 then going and buying it online for far less. Many stores started charging people to try stuff on. The bricks and mortar vs online scenario is not new and it presents a challenge for everyone. I think Zhik got their timing right with this one. They are still making money at 50% off.! 

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Betting: Some money on Privateer and Voodoo both narrowed to $8.00. Teasing Machine now out to $9.00 although I don't mind the forecast for her now? Looking at the forecast it could come down to sail changes and crew work. Will be interesting to see if Teasing Machine and Privateer can stay reasonably close to Ichi Ban? In fact all the 52's will be screaming down the coast after the start. 

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

Will be interesting to see if Teasing Machine and Privateer can stay reasonably close to Ichi Ban? In fact all the 52's will be screaming down the coast after the start. 

I think you will see Ichi looking at Privateers arse as well as well as TM's in the downwind game. The current weather models indicate this might be for longer than Ichi will like. 

They show the west to east system movement slowing. It shows the northerly flow lighter on Wednesday and stronger on Thursday and lasting well into Bass Strait until Friday then clocking west through north. The big boats will have a trough related transition to get though on the south NSW coast on the first night which will slow them down.

If that comes to fruition it opens up the handicap field to a lot more boats. If I had to pick a favourite LOA band my guess is Couta & Co in the 60'+ bracket might be grinning at the moment if they don't get caught in that big boat transition.

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think you will see Ichi looking at Privateers arse as well as well as TM's in the downwind game. The current weather models indicate this might be for longer than Ichi will like. 

They show the west to east system movement slowing. It shows the northerly flow lighter on Wednesday and stronger on Thursday and lasting well into Bass Strait until Friday then clocking west. The big boats will have a trough related transition to get though on the south NSW coast late Wednesday which will slow them down.

If that comes to fruition it opens up the handicap field to a lot more boats. If I had to pick a favourite LOA band my guess is Couta & Co in the 60'+ bracket might be grinning at the moment.

Interesting Jack that you think Ichi will be looking at Privateer's arse with a downhill start? I would have thought IB will be faster downhill than a Cookson 50? Teasing Machine is a little unknown notwithstanding it's 54 feet? Interesting to see if the 60's can get through the weather best? 

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On 12/21/2018 at 4:48 PM, Feilberg said:

Yawn so predictable.

You on for an irc jug or not?

All talk no balls.

Couta if you've got box head onboard and you end up owing me a jug tell box "no garnish" ok?

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10 hours ago, terrafirma said:

The big one he hinted that they sailed wrong angles last year and hence sailed more miles, if they can fix that it's a key factor IMO

I should preface what I say now is that that the Coon guys prep for this race is first class and his decision to do the start himself as owner, I think fantastic. Though I would be putting my money on WOXI or BJ to make it first to turn right.

However that comment of his that on the approach to Tasman Is last year they sailed around 20 miles more than they should have to keep its arse in the air is either pre-race gamesmanship or he honestly believes that horseshit. If so that translates into either he now thinking in retrospect Stan got it wrong at the time or Stan admitting during their lead up training this year with him in board and with basically the same downhill  wardrobe, he got it wrong by 20 odd miles. I'm not a mind reader but in the comfort of my chair last year along many pundits here, the opinion was Stan absolutely nailed the Tasman Is approach to plus or minus metres not fucking miles as WOXI went deep because she can.

That aside if the current weather models are a guide, which 4/5 days out now the trends will not change but only actual TWS and TWD within in a smaller spread and maybe over a 6 hour time period, the Big Indian is going to be doing it really tough this year. They will be forced offshore away from the rhumber dance line the first night like it or not, for the transition that evening it is aguably better to be inshore, then it is a case of on the other side in Bass Strait somehow getting west in a breeze that will be slow to go west via north. 

If that current crystal ball shit holds true it will be the longest RP of your choice that has best odds for getting over first and by a decent margin to the rest. Going with the skinny RP theme for Tatts, take your pick out of the 60+ tour list, albeit some are not even listed on SportsBet. The rationale to that is the 50 footers have a fair chance of not beating the southerly change this side of Tasman Is.

That shit aside this year is going to be a cracker to watch and for those on board too where a battering is not in store despite the odds.

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54 minutes ago, monosailor said:

Bit more involved I think, the boat has been seized

Actually determing ownership of that boat since built requires a Rubix cube starting with when the program ran out of money mid VOR in India? One of Gleneral Bourke's great legacy's where a RTW race goes on a fuckin papadum tour. BTW I see he is doing his first Hobart this year on WOXI.

Maybe the CYC is the first RO that has bought a Rubix Cube and looked into who actually owns that thing?

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

I should preface what I say now is that that the Coon guys prep for this race is first class and his decision to do the start himself as owner, I think fantastic. Though I would be putting my money on WOXI or BJ to make it first to turn right.

However that comment of his that on the approach to Tasman Is last year they sailed around 20 miles more than they should have to keep its arse in the air is either pre-race gamesmanship or he honestly believes that horseshit. If so that translates into either he now thinking in retrospect Stan got it wrong at the time or Stan admitting during their lead up training this year with him in board and with basically the same downhill  wardrobe, he got it wrong by 20 odd miles. I'm not a mind reader but in the comfort of my chair last year along many pundits here, the opinion was Stan absolutely nailed the Tasman Is approach to plus or minus metres not fucking miles as WOXI went deep because she can.

That aside if the current weather models are a guide, which 4/5 days out now the trends will not change but only actual TWS and TWD within in a smaller spread and maybe over a 6 hour time period, the Big Indian is going to be doing it really tough this year. They will be forced offshore away from the rhumber dance line the first night like it or not, for the transition that evening it is aguably better to be inshore, then it is a case of on the other side in Bass Strait somehow getting west in a breeze that will be slow to go west via north. 

If that current crystal ball shit holds true it will be the longest RP of your choice that has best odds for getting over first and by a decent margin to the rest. Going with the skinny RP theme for Tatts, take your pick out of the 60+ tour list, albeit some are not even listed on SportsBet. The rationale to that is the 50 footers have a fair chance of not beating the southerly change this side of Tasman Is.

That shit aside this year is going to be a cracker to watch and for those on board too where a battering is not in store despite the odds.

So your thinking Wild Oats for Line Honours based on the weather as it stands? 

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26 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

So your thinking Wild Oats for Line Honours based on the weather as it stands? 

No just WOXI and BJ beating each other up alone at this weather juncture.

I also find it interesting about the owners comments that his big black boat has found some mysterious go deep off wind capability not revealed to date, yet SciFi stepping on the Big Indian for the first time to replace Stan, was arguably the first one to unlock the Volvo 65 getting to the other end quicker 3 heading it at tighter AWA's and leaving the A3 in the bag.

That could lead to some interesting onboard mid race discusions?

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37 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

No just WOXI and BJ beating each other up alone at this weather juncture.

I also find it interesting about the owners comments that his big black boat has found some mysterious go deep off wind capability not revealed to date, yet SciFi stepping on the Big Indian for the first time to replace Stan, was arguably the first one to unlock the Volvo 65 getting to the other end quicker 3 heading it at tighter AWA's and leaving the A3 in the bag.

That could lead to some interesting onboard mid race discusions?

Yeah looks like a lot of VMG running on the current forecast. Comanche may have some angle just after the start to develop a lead but will soon see if they have developed some mysterious ability to run deeper? Oats will go better downhill than BJ. Interesting as I think Scallywag may enjoy the downhill conditions? Infotrack too 

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2 hours ago, dachopper said:

So...... when are we gonna see a semi foiler in this race???? Any entrants this year???

CQS and Oats both examples I can think of. Both efforts were a failure from memory 

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The Voodoo croo are busy working angles & forecasts & options & permutations....and nuthin is clear right now except it looks like a "soft" hobart. The Big angles, west of the rhumb for the 100's have narrowed significantly in the latest update and everything for us will hang on whether we can skedaddle across in front of the shut down (and leave the TP's to it) As of the latest update, that's a 50/50 probability...and all depends on how much pressure we get on the sthn NSW coast...and how fast the High pressure system moves.

Anyway you carve it it's looking like a close run thing...which makes it great!!

All eyes are on tomorrows forecasts...... ;-)

 

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1 hour ago, bayboy said:

So Alive will have a chance of handicap given she would be VMG running.

Lot of competition in that RP60'+ so not sure about your just VMG running expectation. That said they have aguably the best nav in Wouter and who knows the boat out of that bunch so you would hope gets the angles right. That said keep an eye out on WOX amoungst a very competitive bunch, they may surprise.

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2 hours ago, Couta said:

and everything for us will hang on whether we can skedaddle across in front of the shut down (and leave the TP's to it) As of the latest update, that's a 50/50 probability...

Even when I posted earlier a skedaddle ahead of the south coast transition looked doubtful for the 100 footers, but now looking better for all the 60'+ brigade. The irony of that is if the HP slows it lowers the prospect of the 50's getting bogged on the Flinders approach.

Will be a great race for the weather watchers in real time and already doing it in advance this far out.

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