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Sydney To Hobart 2018


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OK...so I've nearly sobered up... and want to say a few things to the SA team that have followed the Voodoo story. Firstly  - Thank you for your support and input! From the outset I've put though

I was on shore for my live interview show, and then live with the ABC Grandstand radio for the start.  Channel 7 has full rights to all live vision - so there was really no point going on the wat

I have received dozen emails/private messages about my tracker for this year. I have updated to new Windy version and I hope it will work on boxing day https://gis.ee/sh/

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Some pre-race thoughts just launched...like Matt fearful of the 60's with just cause, but did a fuckin splendid job along with many 50's not letting them get away until later in the day. He needs to be more worried about the Privateer boys on that Cookson 50...they are punching well above their weight.

 

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1 hour ago, SPORTSCAR said:

BUGGER!

Patriot out with a broken rudder. Heartbroken for my wife and for the whole Patriot team, on and off the boat, after so much good work.

Safe return guys.

 

Ah shit!  Commiserations to the Patriot team - my son has spent the last many months trying to get Zen ready, only to have something go bad that would have gone bad in a warmup race, if only they'd had the chance to do one of those!

I've retired from a Hobart also - it's not a small club ...<_<

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18 minutes ago, overlay said:

Yes, Stored in diesel

And originally stored for future use by plants and dinasour bits that the world is hooked on as my left leaning green daughter tells me. I then say, "so your IPhone is made out of wood and you charge it using a waterwheel?" The conversation usually stops then and we talk about her not wanting a stepmother the same age as her younger sister. I only come to SA hoping to win the occasional debate.

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3 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Ah shit!  Commiserations to the Patriot team - my son has spent the last many months trying to get Zen ready, only to have something go bad that would have gone bad in a warmup race, if only they'd had the chance to do one of those!

I've retired from a Hobart also - it's not a small club ...<_<

Can I ask what it was on Zen? Website says rig issues?

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1 minute ago, mezaire said:

Can I ask what it was on Zen? Website says rig issues?

Appears the masthead box was sawing it's way down the vertical bit.

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7 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Ah shit!  Commiserations to the Patriot team - my son has spent the last many months trying to get Zen ready, only to have something go bad that would have gone bad in a warmup race, if only they'd had the chance to do one of those!

I've retired from a Hobart also - it's not a small club ...<_<

Thanks mate, appreciate the sentiments. I'm shore based this time so I'm gutted for Mrs S and the whole team. They had done so well in their lead up races and the owners prep was meticulous. The ocean is a cruel bitch.

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To maybe slant the spotlight away from the big pricks ...check out Celestial the TP52 keeping Ichi and Hollywood honest and which has @Potter on board from the UK in his first S2H believe it or not and his missus is on WOX. Bit of family competition synergy there with Voodoo's chief twerker having his missus also onboard WOX.

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Just now, SPORTSCAR said:

The ocean is a cruel bitch.

Indeed.  I have finally reached a place where I can accept shit luck as something that just happens.  I'm a slow learner - it only took 200K sea miles to come to that realisation!

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13 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Appears the masthead box was sawing it's way down the vertical bit.

Medcup boats only have a single spinnaker halyard so maybe the offshore upgrade didn't quite go to plan...  They did an awesome job just to get it to the start line - was always a risk that the untried bits would be vunerable.    Bummer for the Zens.

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8 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

They had done so well in their lead up races and the owners prep was meticulous. The ocean is a cruel bitch.

Mate if there is any consolation if God has already punched your damage ticket, the pain of it occuring seems to rise proportionally to how far down the race track it happens.

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9 minutes ago, Omer said:

Can somebody explain what DTG and DTL  are.

Distance to Go or Distance to Finish. Distance to Leader. Both based on GPS positions using some notional waypoints down the shortest course as shown, so not reality which is sailed/to be sailed miles.

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17 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

To maybe slant the spotlight away from the big pricks ...check out Celestial the TP52 keeping Ichi and Hollywood honest and which has @Potter on board from the UK in his first S2H believe it or not and his missus is on WOX. Bit of family competition synergy there with Voodoo's chief twerker having his missus also onboard WOX.

Know a couple of the Celestial guys - they go hard and a new keel and rudder has made a big difference downwind.

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Distance to Go or Distance to Finish. Distance to Leader. Both based on GPS positions using some notional waypoints down the course, so not reality.

Comanche is clearly ahead of Woxi  with a negative DTL whereas woxi is shown to have zero DTL. Thats where i got confused.

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4 minutes ago, Omer said:

Comanche is clearly ahead of Woxi  with a negative DTL whereas woxi is shown to have zero DTL. Thats where i got confused.

Emphasis on these words for boats closest to the Rhumb Line used by the tracker.

14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

..based on GPS positions using some notional waypoints down the shortest course as shown, so not reality which is sailed/to be sailed miles.

 

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5 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

Know a couple of the Celestial guys - they go hard and a new keel and rudder has made a big difference downwind.

They are indeed doing better than I would have expected given the age of the boat!  good on em!  Actually, even "old" Tp52s seem to be quite competitive!

I didn't see where Itchybum  got her break - I assume she just did some magic and avoided the glassout in the harbour - did anyone notice?  Good luck or good management?  

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If you are posted as First, then accompanying that data your DTL will be 0.00 - because for that moment in time you are La Grande Fromage (LGF)

For those who are NOT First (or LGF) then accompanying data will show as DTL (X.XX) and other useful numbers.

Go from there Omer, when you have a tight fleet but lots of lateral separation then take all published data with a pinch of salt - they will see/saw widely as each boat changes their course speed and heading (aka VMG) which in turn changes their fortunes (Heros or zeros).

For Handicap, wait until scheds so that data used is like for like (or the best that can be determined).

 

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14 minutes ago, Omer said:

Comanche is clearly ahead of Woxi  with a negative DTL whereas woxi is shown to have zero DTL. Thats where i got confused.

Looking at the wrong Comanche? The one with the minus DTL is the track of number #1 from last year. The current one is #4 and some 8 nm behind leader WOXI who is closest to the Rhumbline in the lead pack.

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18 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

Don't get why the Indian gybed inshore, they've now gybed back.  Chickened out on a big lift I guess but it's looking very light in where they are and all the models say more pressure out wide.

I think that is a half way bet. Not wanting to start a Nav heirarchy discussion in expertise for this race but I think Capey on IT just gave SciFi on the Indian a quick lesson and SciFi folded.

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8 minutes ago, Marty6 said:

Looking at the wrong Comanche? The one with the minus DTL is the track of number #1 from last year. The current one is #4 and some 8 nm behind leader WOXI who is closest to the Rhumbline in the lead pack.

Thanks Marty. Clearly i was looking at the wrong Comanche.  It is a bit confusing to have two of them though. I did not notice the 2017  date.

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33 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Actually, even "old" Tp52s seem to be quite competitive!

Yes. The old Ichi now Envy Scooters with its rating advantage was giving the real Ichi a lot of grief earlier on today. That nightmare might come back for Matt Allen.

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32 minutes ago, Maw said:

I wonder if right about now all the naviguessers are feeling uncomfortable watching the rhumb line get further away?? I know its for all the right reasons etc, still feels uncomfortable to me. 

You would be horrified then watching Black Jack (the V70) a few years ago going via Dunedin to avoid a soft spot and chalking up a extra million miles (the year Comanche on first outing got bogged and WOXI got through?) but BJ still finished in a respectable but forgettable position. 

It's called "weather routing", providing you have the boat speed and know the numbers to take real advantage of them.

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7 minutes ago, Der_Dude said:

Can somebody explain, why Comanche has come back West? Too much separation?

Hint. Try reading upthread first even for just the last hour before posting lazy shit.

54 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

Don't get why the Indian gybed inshore, they've now gybed back.  Chickened out on a big lift I guess but it's looking very light in where they are and all the models say more pressure out wide.

 

39 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think that is a half way bet. Not wanting to start a Nav heirarchy discussion in expertise for this race but I think Capey on IT just gave SciFi on the Indian a quick lesson and SciFi folded.

 

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49 minutes ago, Maw said:

So we have Alive, WOX, and Appliances lined up neatly across the racetrack with enough separation to make it interesting.

You forget the Voodoo just off the pace slightly. As for current positions Villa on WOXI and particularly Will Oxley on Ichi, take a bow, masterclass S2H navigation.

Current forecast indicates the transition has gone up in smoke, they will be having a decent N/NE airflow for Gabo approach and well into Bass Strait. That explains a lot Comanche driving back to the Rhumb Line. All those extra miles sailed and going quick just got evaporated by God.

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10 minutes ago, Maw said:

Jack, if you add in Voodoo, we have to squeeze in Prospector.

A single Mills surrounded by Reichel Pughs, like leopards stalking a cheetah. 

True ..I just felt guilty about seeing Couta being sliced and reconciling that with Ichi being kissed on the dick with transition going up in smoke.

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18 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Current forecast just in indicates the transition has gone up in smoke, they will be having a decent N/NE airflow for Gabo approach and well into Bass Strait. That explains a lot Comanche driving back to the Rhumb Line. All those extra miles sailed and going quick just got evaporated by God.

what forecast is that?

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27 minutes ago, us7070 said:

what forecast is that?

This, noting without real time data from each boat, couch potatoes like me are just potatoes. 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Those at the front end with $ will now be downloading latest ACCESS model gribs and pondering Himawari geostationary satelight IR pictures to determine their destiny through and other side of this first transition. Very stressful time. Watch this space.

 

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1 hour ago, Der_Dude said:

Read that. Was wondering about the seemingly better  pressure out west too. Why play follow the leader into conditions  that favor the other boat? Because the pressure didn't materialize?

Comparative pressure at any one time slice is irelevant. The transition just disappeared with little warning leaving no advantage being east. Time to cut your loses and get back to the Rhumb Line quick smart. Arguably InfoTrack saw it happening before the Indian.

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25 minutes ago, Tropical Madness said:

you could throw a blanket over the 4 maxis. All the pre race hype was right - everyone's worked on their weaknesses and these boats are fairly level now. Definitely will come down to the derwent.

That's nonsense, it is varied conditions that are the leveler. In that vein look at distances sailed to date and by who under what conditions that have transpired and now forecast. Arguably the middle tier 100' is now tied up in Sydney and crew are on the drink. The extremes now left have each a few hurdles for and against well before the last hurrah in the Derwent from this restart.

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1 minute ago, terrafirma said:

Comanche getting a lesson in pyhsics and VMG running..! Oats beating Comanche easily at the moment

We're watching different races.  Comanche is running Oats down and will be in front in two hours.  NASCAR tracks lead changes and this race looks like one where there will be a lot of back and forth.  Very entertaining.  

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27 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Comanche getting a lesson in pyhsics and VMG running..! Oats beating Comanche easily at the moment

You need to give yourself an uppercut terra. We don't know their respective TWS but both are within 5 degrees of COG of each other and only a mile or so apart so assume TWA and TWS are pretty close. The Indian at the moment is cutting WOXI's lunch which is pretty spooky. I don't think Richo will be getting much sleep tonight, albeit a one sleep race for these 100' guys.

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5 hours ago, Grinning Ape said:

Looks like the 2nd start line was quite animated. 

And that's how you get a 3rd row start, too close to leeward, room to weather, hesitant, no boat speed and can't drive off to leeward before the gun.

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Yes. The old Ichi now Envy Scooters with its rating advantage was giving the real Ichi a lot of grief earlier on today. That nightmare might come back for Matt Allen.

Isn’t Envy at 1.398 against Ichi’s 1.397 ?

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That's nonsense, it is varied conditions that are the leveler. In that vein look at distances sailed to date and by who under what conditions that have transpired and now forecast. Arguably the middle tier 100' is now tied up in Sydney and crew are on the drink. The extremes now left have each a few hurdles for and against well before the last hurrah in the Derwent from this restart.

Exactly, the game and the lottery dice start for the last part up the river. 

I’m enjoying this one from the armchair. 

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16 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

It's awesome vs the 'official' tracker.  Well done.  

True,the Rolex wearers tracker looks more  like a manual winder movement compared to Forss.

At least the start footage access improved this year and the no commentary and advertising portion was brilliant.

D945506D-B7B9-49F5-8DE5-24D86B23FD00.thumb.png.2d4b51946423e21f042f941fee76026a.png

 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You need to give yourself an uppercut terra. We don't know their respective TWS but both are within 5 degrees of COG of each other and only a mile or so apart so assume TWA and TWS are pretty close. The Indian at the moment is cutting WOXI's lunch which is pretty spooky. I don't think Richo will be getting much sleep tonight, albeit a one sleep race for these 100' guys.

With the amount of shit he dribbles on with one can only assume he's auditioning for a commentary position with Ch7 for next years start coverage.

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3 minutes ago, Gorn FRANTIC!! said:

With the amount of shit he dribbles on with one can only assume he's auditioning for a commentary position with Ch7 for next years start coverage.

I hate to admit it, but I thought the coverage was great.  Being in the US I did get the welcome gaps in coverage which was nice.  The announcers were good, they balanced between the racing sailors watching and the laymen.  Spithill was great as well.  You guys are too harsh.  Of course my metric is Clean...enough said. 

 

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1 minute ago, us7070 said:

well, with breeze apparently dropping over last few updates., the speed difference between woxi and comanchee is diminishing.., and may soon turn in favor of woxi

I expect a number of lead changes and from a spectator's viewpoint, the last one on the last lap in the Derwent.  This is fun to watch!

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5 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I expect a number of lead changes and from a spectator's viewpoint, the last one on the last lap in the Derwent.  This is fun to watch!

+ 1 on lead changes and fun to watch!  Not having a dog in the fight, it's most important that the final result comes down to the wire.

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10 hours ago, Horn Rock said:

Who Gilly?

Might be time to shut the fuck up now princess. You have shown you are a ignorant cocksucker- there is no need to keep confirming it.

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1 minute ago, Swimsailor said:

Any reason why they keep heading inland?  Isn't the breeze offshore?  Too long a route to make it worthwhile?

They have every bit of information we do and are playing their optimum solutions.  Maybe you aren't aware, but there are software packages that take your boat's polars and the wx predictions and tell you where to sail.  These guys are doing just that x10.

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2 hours ago, Bruno said:

And that's how you get a 3rd row start, too close to leeward, room to weather, hesitant, no boat speed and can't drive off to leeward before the gun.

No boat speed+ too early 2 line + owners g/f driving (maybe?) = hang head down and hope no one recognizes you.   Oi vay baby!

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9 minutes ago, Swimsailor said:

Any reason why they keep heading inland?  Isn't the breeze offshore?  Too long a route to make it worthwhile?

12Z Euro and GFS (which aren't that old) both give nearly identical routing solutions - and both go west to get around the hole that opens.., and to get the W/NW a bit on the beam, rather than dead aft - it comes in pretty light initially...

the image shows routing for comanche with the 12Z GFS blue and 12Z Euro Black

routing.png

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6 minutes ago, vtsail said:

Anyone know how to access the livestream that's supposedly going on right now?  It's too big of a thread to go back and search for it.

 

Supposed to be on the 7Plus app but nothing happening ATM.

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here is a close up.

i did the routing for comanche about 2hrs ago (when comanche was at mark 0), just after the 12Z EC became available - you can see they are pretty much exactly on the routing.., about where the GFS predicted they would be

routing 2.png

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