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Sydney To Hobart 2018


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OK...so I've nearly sobered up... and want to say a few things to the SA team that have followed the Voodoo story. Firstly  - Thank you for your support and input! From the outset I've put though

I was on shore for my live interview show, and then live with the ABC Grandstand radio for the start.  Channel 7 has full rights to all live vision - so there was really no point going on the wat

I have received dozen emails/private messages about my tracker for this year. I have updated to new Windy version and I hope it will work on boxing day https://gis.ee/sh/

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The Derwent will be a lottery. A bit like the Winter Series. If they are all within a mile or two of each other when they get there, and it is glassy - logic says Blackjack and Oats are less sticky than the big girls. Fucking epic race all over the scoreboard though. Will we see an Apollo/Condor finish??? 

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11 minutes ago, paps49 said:

Will indeed Black Jack be the dark horse, if she's closest come the Derwent anything could happen.

Agreed. Wild Oats sailing the deepest now, she is using her VMG running trumpcard. Black Jack is sitting on the Indian's arse waiting for the light. There is some pressure now but the angles aren't perfect for the fat arsed chief. Anyway this is when Comanche needs to make some gains. 

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Now that there is no more speed bumps this side of Tasman Is for the big dicks. Time to look at what is store for the others? The answer is not good.

The synoptic situation (see sat pic dated earlier today) is a Low and associated Cold Front SW of Tasmania, a High mid Tasman (that while its extent has moved around a bit is exactly positioned as forecast nearly a week ago) and between the two a Trough extending from Tasmania NW across mainland Australia as shown by the cloud cover. However from around midnight tonight or in 6 hours time that trough becomes more pronounced over Tasmania and it becomes a dead zone.

On the race course this will translate into a dead zone forming off the mainland NE corner and it will stick around for nearly 12 hours to late tomorrow morning.until that Low and associated Cold Front moves east for some gradients to appear and pressure return. That dead zone will be more pronounced closer to the coast, so expect to see boats staying east of the Rhumb Line approaching there. 

What this means is probably the only group that will either clear that postcode off the NE corner in time will be the 60'+ Club and even then may get stuck, but the leaders like Alive and WOX will get out of Dodge quicker. The 50's are not going to be so lucky I think and park up. However not all the fleet will compress raising the HC prospects of the smaller boats still to enter that postcode before tomorrow morning because they will have mixed bag of everything tonight in Bass Strait through to late tomorrow morning, then from lunchtime a SE change will be moving up the Tasmanian coast.

So bearing in mind before daylight tomorrow morning the southerly change should have hit Flinders Is and brought air back into Storm Bay, and the Derwent will have air after mid morning, it is the 60+ Club led by Alive and WOX who currently seem best placed to be arm wrestling for the Tatts Trophy.

Couta & Co need to get a wriggle on. 

       

20181227_Tas Weather.jpg

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20 minutes ago, richiec said:

The Derwent will be a lottery. A bit like the Winter Series. If they are all within a mile or two of each other when they get there, and it is glassy - logic says Blackjack and Oats are less sticky than the big girls. Fucking epic race all over the scoreboard though. Will we see an Apollo/Condor finish??? 

Agreed.

I think that the draft of the Big Injun will also not help her cause, which is a shame considering how well she has done in what most would have thought to be others conditions.

Still, quite a bit of runway left.....

Was the Privateer COG of 334 just a blip - or have they a problem?

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1 minute ago, richiec said:

Anyone game enough to call it? LH and Tatts? 

I'll go Wild Oats or the Indian for LH. After reading Jack's synopsis above Tatts is too hard. Love to see Voodoo win. Oats sailing really deep now the angles don't look the best for the Indian. 

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

My Tatts remains unchanged for Alive and with explanation above.

Makes sense she is the closest to the 100's and Oats X is a little off her pace. Voodoo or Prospector are next after them. 

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1 hour ago, Horn Rock said:

Yeah I hope it's not decided by who can drift better up the Derwent. It's an ocean race.

It’s a race from A to B with an ocean between. Oceans are sometimes quiet. Like the doldrums. Coping with that, AND the wilder weather, is what makes an ocean race, imho. Any idiot can sail in good winds. Managing light conditions brings out the connoisseurs. 

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Whats interesting is Black Jack is matching the Indians course or running angle, why can't she sail deeper like Oats? We have Indian sailing at 229 and Oats 224 however a few minutes ago Oats was sailing 30 degrees deeper. Must have been different wind. It looks more even now Comanche sailing faster but Oats deeper. It's math's. Still puzzled that BJ is not sailing deeper consistently than the chief?

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This is actually a fucking intriguing chess game. The breeze will strengthen and back down the track. With the seperation between the Indian and WOXI my guess is we will then see them take each other on but using their weak side. Comanche will go deeper slower and reduce distance sailed and WOXI will hot it up and try it with more miles more boat speed.

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One thing is certain from this race is what ever cheques Christian Beck has handed to Cape, Mutter, Bekking and Bannatyne etc, worth every penny. The best this shitter has ever done with conditions in mind since it landed in Australia, maybe even since it left the yard with the Speedboat sticker.

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The two 60's Alive and WOX heading due south to max seperation to the coast and hopefully get through the door later tonite/early morning before it closes. Voodoo fucking around still going west and might get stuck. Subject to weather and positional check in around 6 hours the 50's aren't dead, but heading for life support for getting Tatts.

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6 minutes ago, overlay said:

 BOM  showing a Southerly change at Tasman Island around 0200. Mini parking lot forming soon there after.

Interesting times ahead. 

Don't understand what you mean by that? That change brings air back into outer Storm Bay first and then secondly moving to the Derwent by mid morning.

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Just now, terrafirma said:

Teasing Machine been disappointing considering who is on board and their waterline length. They are a couple of miles behind Frantic a Donovan TP52 built in 2004. 

She isn't built as a coastal racer particularly one with conditions as experienced.

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1 minute ago, overlay said:

 

Such a lag between Marine traffic data and the tracker. Injuns gybe still hasn't shown on the tracker. Ppoor.

 

Tracker is a 10 minute interval and AIS is continuous? What's piss poor? There is a price attached to shorter tracker update times incl battery life.

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4 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Near the top mark out of Sydney, WOXI hit a hole and the helmsman screamed header.  Does he know the difference between a header and a velocity knock cause it sure didn't look like it.  Is that the best a program of that magnitude can do to steer a boat out of the harbor?

Boat in front had dropped right down...  Looked shifty to me but hey i'm a long way away with one 5 second camera shot to form my opinion.  So I must be right...

 

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I asked the question upthread as too lazy too look but don't SI's say they have to keep it on or is that just receive only not transceive?

Not sure on SI's but Oats haven't reported to my knowledge so far?

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3 minutes ago, overlay said:

Yer I checked the sailing instructions at the time and this came up:

Special Regulations 4.09(c): All boats in the BWPS shall carry an AIS transponder.

Is the S2H part of the Blue water point score series?

 

https://cyca.com.au/special-regulations/

11.4 Changes to Special Regulations

Special Regulation 4.09 (a): An AIS Transponder shall be carried and be switched on, such that it is receiving and transmitting.
 

http://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/media/3438679/rshyr-si-final.pdf
 

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3 hours ago, Apparent Lee said:

Well if you are a misogynist c##t, ilike Dick Witt it's nice to meet you too... but  please don't sail with me, women are welcome on my boat. 

 

Am I the only one that sees the irony in this comment? :lol:

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3 minutes ago, overlay said:

Yes, Windy ty is showing the breeze to increase and crank more to the NNW  for a while.

Fat arse girls are going to fly.

Yeah Info went from a 3-4 miles behind to around 8 miles now. It happened pretty quickly. Oats sailing 14 degrees deeper than the Chief. 

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2 hours ago, NORBowGirl said:

It’s a race from A to B with an ocean between. Oceans are sometimes quiet. Like the doldrums. Coping with that, AND the wilder weather, is what makes an ocean race, imho. Any idiot can sail in good winds. Managing light conditions brings out the connoisseurs. 

Ssshhhhhh, You’ll only confuse him with these technicalities. 

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4 minutes ago, Hold Fast said:

surely the Derwent will be the Injun's undoing. 

Oats LH, Patrice for the Tatts. 

 

41 minutes ago, overlay said:

Interesting, So could one assume that the CYCA is all over WO lack of an adequate AIS signal and will penalise them,

or does Mr Cooney need to protest?.

Oats isn't the only one without AIS in the fleet. Infotrack, Oats X, Prospector the list goes on just starting at the biggest. 

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1 minute ago, trt131 said:

Just because you cant see the boats on Marine Traffic AIS does not mean they don't have them switched on.  Most are short range VHF.  AIS is not a tracking device, it is design for ships' collision avoidance.

This makes sense. Patrice now in the IRC lead.. Early days but good to see her in the mix. Ichi Ban in 5th comfortably poised

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4 minutes ago, hoppy said:

Don't expect a reaction from the ch7 target audience here.

MR & TC have slowed right up. Quite good to see the gunners are up in 2nd for now. 

What's up with Komatsu Azzurro? Dead last in IRC4, not like them.

 

The standings also currently reckon that Envy, about six miles astern of Ichy, will finish half an hour in front of Ichi. They also reckon that Hollywood, behind Ichi and rating higher, will correct ahead of her.

The standings are bullshit and if you stop looking for a new boat to get beaten in club PHS racing and actually do some serious racing, you may understand why some people like idly watching the big boats,

 

 

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Re: AIS visibility

I would believe this if you could have seen WO (and others) two hours after the start when they were still in sight of land stations. They were invisible to AIS from the start gun when 90% of the fleet were on it.  

Faulty equipment (unlikely), silent mode (believable), cheap quality equipment limiting range (hahaha)!

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19 minutes ago, Curious said:

The standings also currently reckon that Envy, about six miles astern of Ichy, will finish half an hour in front of Ichi. They also reckon that Hollywood, behind Ichi and rating higher, will correct ahead of her.

The standings are bullshit and if you stop looking for a new boat to get beaten in club PHS racing and actually do some serious racing, you may understand why some people like idly watching the big boats,

 

 

They use a spot SOG and DTF at update to calc placings on the go. So taken surfing down a wave you look a hero. Need to observe a few not just one to get a trend.

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40 minutes ago, hoppy said:

Don't expect a reaction from the ch7 target audience here.

MR & TC have slowed right up. Quite good to see the gunners are up in 2nd for now. 

What's up with Komatsu Azzurro? Dead last in IRC4, not like them.

 

Its handicap racing. Most of the boats will be finishing within a small % of the overall race time. The current standings bear no relationship to the final standings.

 

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15 minutes ago, bayboy said:

It would be interesting to know how much is spent on this race by the professional boats, esp the 100's

Huge difference between boat sizes. Amortising capital costs like sails and minor make good/mods etc over a couple of years and operating expenses per race, don't bother showing up in a 100' if you haven't got at least $500K. 

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Huge difference between boat sizes. Amortising capital costs like sails and minor make good/mods etc over a couple of years and operating expenses per race, don't bother showing up in a 100' if you haven't got at least $500K. 

You estimating that as the all up annual cost, prorated for the number of races,  or just the race pre-start to finish, including crew wages, benefits, travel, gear and lodging