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If Trump pardons Gates and Manafort would he survive?


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If trump pardons all those people charged by Mueller will the Congressional Republicans support him or would they turn on him? Will he survive? 

I can't see how he could but he always seems to move on to the next thing unabated.  

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-pardon-flynn-gates-himself-811695

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I would willing to bet a nickle that Mueller has negotiated state charges with NY AND has kept some charges in his back pocket just in case.  Trump pardons, Mueller files more charges.  Extended drama where Trump says more stupid stuff that Mueller writes down for Trump's charges.  Trump fires Mueller and Mueller sends the system password to Anonymous.

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Yes. And Trump doesn't care. Trump is above it all.

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4 minutes ago, HardOnWind said:

If trump pardons all those people charged by Mueller will the Congressional Republicans support him or would they turn on him? Will he survive? 

I can't see how he could but he always seems to move on to the next thing unabated.  

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-pardon-flynn-gates-himself-811695

Nothing can shake the 35%, but surely he would lose the support of some of his less dogged supporters.  I think it would be quite dangerous for any GOP Congress critters that might support the move. Any chance of a second term for Trump would be gone. It’s a no win situation. 

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1 minute ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I don't see Trump losing his base for ANYTHING AT ALL. He really has found a whole army of people utterly lacking in brains and morals.

Splitting Congress off from him.........maybe.

Someone needs to go after the Trump base (not the Nazi's and bigots). If the blue collar world starts to think someone cares about them they will run from Trump. So far everyone is courting upper class whites, blacks and hispanics. A sure way to loose the next election too.

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2 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

His Best Supporters are people of principle. Honest folk. People of the land. The common clay of the new west. 

You know, they will not turn on him unless he changes parties.  

Oh, morons.

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18 minutes ago, Sean said:

Not to nitpick, but morans is the correct term. 

EBB32C61-9340-42BB-A179-266E922C2094.jpeg

 

19 minutes ago, Sean said:

Not to nitpick, but morans is the correct term. 

EBB32C61-9340-42BB-A179-266E922C2094.jpeg

Sol's line was from Blazing Saddles. We're it not for that I most likely would have gone with the Bugs Bunny preference, "maroon." The tried and true "moran" is always appropriate especially when referencing Trump supporters.

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Around here, jobs are as scarce as hen's teeth.

The general population still thinks Trump is the Messiah.

Even the mini Wal*Mart closed down, and the best paying job is $8.50 at the Marathon gas-n-go, if you take night shift..... Not kidding.

 Who are they blaming? "The Democrats in congress that are blocking all the legislation!".... Not kidding.

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3 hours ago, jerseyguy said:

 

Sol's line was from Blazing Saddles. We're it not for that I most likely would have gone with the Bugs Bunny preference, "maroon." The tried and true "moran" is always appropriate especially when referencing Trump supporters.

 

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November is not going to be very pretty for Trump, the GOP or for his supporters.  Nothing will happen until the new Congress is seated. If he hasn't resigned he will be impeached. He won't be removed (not enough senate votes). At some point he will resign with his usual con bullshit reasons to continue his fleecing.

The End. It won't end well. Early November prolly a good time to invest in anti-depressant manufacturers.  

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3 hours ago, Ishmael said:

Sadly, most of the Darwinian methods are being sabotaged by safety devices.

I've been saying for a long time that we have to stop interfering in the natural selection process.

We should do it for children but once the age of majority has been reached we should let nature take its course.

A slow decline into Idiocracy is the alternative - the proof is all around us.

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4 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

Around here, jobs are as scarce as hen's teeth.

The general population still thinks Trump is the Messiah.

Even the mini Wal*Mart closed down, and the best paying job is $8.50 at the Marathon gas-n-go, if you take night shift..... Not kidding.

 Who are they blaming? "The Democrats in congress that are blocking all the legislation!".... Not kidding.

The Russians, through Trump didn't bring us 1984 in a vacuum. The right has been laying the foundations of a misinformed populace for years.

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10 hours ago, d'ranger said:

November is not going to be very pretty for Trump, the GOP or for his supporters.  Nothing will happen until the new Congress is seated. If he hasn't resigned he will be impeached. He won't be removed (not enough senate votes). At some point he will resign with his usual con bullshit reasons to continue his fleecing.

The End. It won't end well. Early November prolly a good time to invest in anti-depressant manufacturers.  

what do see as the impeachment charge?

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5 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

If Trump pardons Manafort and Gates, he has to go. 

If Trump doesn't pardon Manafort and Gates, he has to go.

 

flynn gets a full pardon

manafort gets his in the last month of the donalds presidency

assuming he rats, gates gets nothing

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4 minutes ago, hermetic said:

flynn gets a full pardon

manafort gets his in the last month of the donalds presidency

assuming he rats, gates gets nothing

Was John Dean a "rat"? In one American chapter, he was all the public had.

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16 hours ago, Raz'r said:

He’d be fine. Unless there is an indictment, he’ll finish his term.

Worthy of a downvote, in other company.  Trump can't ride Mueller out for thirty months IMO.

 

But here's the makeup of any indictment. http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc-live-ari-melber

 Who is guarding the guardians? Can a special prosecutor indict a president? The spirit of the constution is that no man is above the law...but Clinton era blowback produced a DOJ position which denies constitutionality.

Our source here has appeared before the SC 30 times.

Quote

General Powers of Special Counsel. Controlling Opinion on indictment: A Sitting President's Amenability to Indictment and Criminal Prosecution,Oct. 16, 2000

Conclusion: The indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting president would be unconstitutional.

Source: the Office of Legal Counsel, DOJ  Author of report, Niel Kadjow (interviewed on link, above)

He lays out that the special prosecutor would have to get permission from the acting DOJ figure (Rosenstein) with the request. If the request to indict is refused, this triggers the requirement to notify the majorities and minorities in congress.

Within the Clinton-era finding, there are three warning triggers attached to congressional notification:

  • the hiring of a special prosecutor,
  • the termination of a special prosecutor, and
  • The denial of a special counsel's case for indictment

Once requested by the Special Counsel, any refusal to indict will be seriously aired out.

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, hermetic said:

what do see as the impeachment charge?

I think lying would be a start, he will be forced to under oath and it won't be about a bj.  In another year? Could be a menu of things to pick from.  Nothing is easy to predict, Pence could well pardon him "for the good of the country" for just about anything. 

What I do know is - Trump voters wanted to blow things up and have succeeded, prolly didn't expect it to be their own movement. 

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"The only honest answer is that an impeachable offense is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers [it] to be at a given moment in history; conviction results from whatever offense or offenses two-thirds of the other body considers to be sufficiently serious to require removal of the accused."
 
Gerald Ford, 1970.
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16 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

They turned out for candidate Grab-Em-By-The-Pussy. 

The "Birther in Chief," some guy said. It feels good to see him go down.

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Just now, jocal505 said:

The "Birther in Chief," some guy said. It feels good to see him go down.

He hasn't gone anywhere yet; unfortunately.  A long time between now and November.

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He could walk across the street to Lafayette Park, take the American flag away from a disabled vet in a wheelchair, strangle him with it, and the principled folk here who do not support him would point out the mysterious circumstances surrounding Vince Foster’s death. He will not be impeached unless he switches parties. 

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1 minute ago, jerseyguy said:

He hasn't gone anywhere yet; unfortunately.  A long time between now and November.

Yes, of course. But... You only allude to twisting in the wind...

As we bask in the schadenfreude factor, this is happening in fast motion AS WE ARE WELL INFORMED. Watergate plodded along, with few column inches indeed. 

The more rounds the better, Trump will win few.

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6 minutes ago, d'ranger said:
44 minutes ago, hermetic said:

what do see as the impeachment charge?

I think lying would be a start, he will be forced to under oath and it won't be about a bj.  In another year? Could be a menu of things to pick from.  Nothing is easy to predict, Pence could well pardon him "for the good of the country" for just about anything. 

so just a hope.  i don't share your hope

the donald and his lawyers will fight to the death any q + a from mueller's team about anything that goes beyond the election - ie. his old business dealings or extramarital romps.

the only thing he might get roped on is firing comey, but his lawyers have had a long, long time to straighten that story out

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1 minute ago, hermetic said:

so just a hope.  i don't share your hope

the donald and his lawyers will fight to the death any q + a from mueller's team about anything that goes beyond the election - ie. his old business dealings or extramarital romps.

the only thing he might get roped on is firing comey, but his lawyers have had a long, long time to straighten that story out

He has made a successful career out of bullying and bullshitting.  Trump has never tried this with someone as formidable as Mueller.

It won't end well.

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Don’t worry Hermetic.  We won’t face a Pence presidency.    The Republicans will keep my district, and most others on fly over gerrymander territory,   There will be enough Republican loyalists to make sure Trump is protected from all crimes and misdemeanors, including emollients, treason  and corruption.    The wetland will thrive untouched, Phragmites Putin will continue unabated.   Families containing immigrants will continue to be torn apart.   The best and the brightest will avoid sullying their reputation with US citizenship.   The deficit will soar to undreamed of heights.    The Republican legacy will endure for generations.

Do worry about this new generation of kids.   They won’t be able to stop things from being fucked up in 2018,   They will make some changes as early as 2020, and they will not be kind to the fossils that destroyed their future.   If they are kept out of the voting booth, or their votes are kept from mattering, they will change the system.  It may be for the country’s benefit, but it will be to the detriment of those that are creating this mess.   The NRA cannot kill them all.   Don’t worry about health insurance,   We won’t have any, they will pass a law so only people under 40 get universal coverage.   Old farts that created the mess will have to deal without any government interference, just as Paul Ryan wants, to pay for the tax cut.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, jocal505 said:

Worthy of a downvote, in other company.  Trump can't ride Mueller out for thirty months IMO.

 

But here's the makeup of any indictment. http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc-live-ari-melber

 Who is guarding the guardians? Can a special prosecutor indict a president? The spirit of the constution is that no man is above the law...but Clinton era blowback produced a DOJ position which denies constitutionality.

Our source here has appeared before the SC 30 times.

He lays out that the special prosecutor would have to get permission from the acting DOJ figure (Rosenstein) with the request. If the request to indict is refused, this triggers the requirement to notify the majorities and minorities in congress.

Within the Clinton-era finding, there are three warning triggers attached to congressional notification:

  • the hiring of a special prosecutor,
  • the termination of a special prosecutor, and
  • The denial of a special counsel's case for indictment

Once requested by the Special Counsel, any refusal to indict will be seriously aired out.

 

 

 

Probably worthy of a downvote, but I don’t see a Senate conviction, regardless of midterm results. Harsh truth.

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1 hour ago, d'ranger said:
1 hour ago, hermetic said:

so just a hope.  i don't share your hope

the donald and his lawyers will fight to the death any q + a from mueller's team about anything that goes beyond the election - ie. his old business dealings or extramarital romps.

the only thing he might get roped on is firing comey, but his lawyers have had a long, long time to straighten that story out

He has made a successful career out of bullying and bullshitting.  Trump has never tried this with someone as formidable as Mueller.

It won't end well.

maybe so

but keep in mind that while the best prosecutors work for the government, the best lawyers work for money.  the smart bet is on the whores

this november is what counts

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12 hours ago, d'ranger said:

November is not going to be very pretty for Trump, the GOP or for his supporters.  Nothing will happen until the new Congress is seated. If he hasn't resigned he will be impeached. He won't be removed (not enough senate votes). At some point he will resign with his usual con bullshit reasons to continue his fleecing.

The End. It won't end well. Early November prolly a good time to invest in anti-depressant manufacturers.  

There is another scenario...he might die :D

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13 minutes ago, hermetic said:

maybe so

but keep in mind that while the best prosecutors work for the government, the best lawyers work for money.  the smart bet is on the whores

this november is what counts

Yep, and 6 months ago I thought that come November not much would change.  I now see the winds of change sweeping - nobody is trumpeting Trump anymore - those people aren't going to switch sides but are depressed and demotivated. Meanwhile, back at the ranch a lot of people who were apathetic are becoming motivated voters, at least here in deep red state Texas. I vividly recall standing in the long line to vote and sensing what a bunch of really unhappy people with nobody smiling, the mood was noticeably sullen - something I had never before witnessed.  It really struck me that for those people there were no good choices.  My district typically is very Republican partly due to our friend Gerry Mandering. 

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52 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Probably worthy of a downvote, but I don’t see a Senate conviction, regardless of midterm results. Harsh truth.

I'll go along, for the moment. Are you figuring Jared and Ivanka in the docket? The 666 project in foreclosure? His confidants all sent down the road? His fragile mental state after Hope Hicks jumps? This man can't take it, and Pence is lurking. We''ll see. 

Drain the swamp. Lock her up. No collusion. Over and out.

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4 hours ago, jocal505 said:

Was John Dean a "rat"? In one American chapter, he was all the public had.

Ever notice who subscribes to that "Rat" mentality?

Children and criminals.

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3 hours ago, hermetic said:

spare me the woe is me lark

us history is chock full of idiots in power who have done some horrendous things.  it'll get past this one too

so pardon me for not being myopic and sharing your sense of doom

Probably.   The Romanovs thought they were in a position of strength, and refused all compromise until it was too late.   We see political parties that refuse all compromise, and hear off key fiddle playing with smoke on the horizon,   There is plenty of time to reform, but Trump is a bright orange reminder of the desperation many people feel.   The Republicans have harnessed the left behind 40-90 year old white male demographic with racism,  guns and abortion,     If they succeed in killing the abortion boogeyman, as seems likely, all they have left is guns and racism.    Neither is looking as popular as it did last election.   A few people own all the guns,    The NAZI pride marches are mocked by sane people everywhere.   A mulatto proved a better president then their racist rich hero.

Meanwhile this precarious stool they stand on blocks the view of the coming generation.   That generation is routinely intimate across racial lines.  They will face the consequences of climate change and the deficit.   They will not be distracted by a new war like Bush used, since we haven’t finished the last two yet.   They will surely kick the stool aside someday.

The white female left behind demographic doesn’t love Trump, but dutifully voted team red or stayed home since Hillary was a very bad person who wanted their guns to kill babies with.   If somebody is smarter next time, they may not stand by their men.   

Republicans achieved great short term gains, but their very success has painted them into a corner.   They own racism, climate change for the whole planet, net neutrality, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and the deficit.   Something to piss of everybody coming of age.  Maybe they will be more worthy than my generation, they face more challenges then any generation in 80 years.    

The Republicans are very good at tarring their opponents, so the Dems would be smart to keep any worthy candidates they have hidden.  If they don’t have a sucker, an apparent champion will emerge somewhere.   If the political machines keep him or her from becoming a viable candidate, another less ideal way will be found.    Don’t forget the current unrest is occurring 7 or 8 years up the recovery ladder of a cyclical economy.   The recovery was delayed by choking spending in a recession while telling everybody how bad off they were.   The new stimulus package in a boom will pump up the pressure.     Consumer debt is again keeping the left behind from feeling poor.    The last bubble grew for years. Who knows how big this one will get.  The economy will crash again, it always does.   The timing of that crash is a huge unknown variable.

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54 minutes ago, hermetic said:

.... and I also don't share in your demonization of just one side of the political spectrum

Nor do I,   I support the corporate tax reform, or would if it could have been revenue neutral.   Some of Trumps foreign policy and aid streamlining would have been laudable, I’d not so clumsily done,    I actually find his non traditional sexual mores mildly refreshing, except for the cheating on his wife thing and the non conscient groping thing.   And the hypocrisy thing.   And....   ok delete that endorsement,    But he has a few areas where he’s not bad.   I wish he’d address disability rules, but he’d hurt his Ohio base bigly.

I do demonize the lack of responsibility of the Democratic platform.   I repeatedly denounced The Hawkishness of the Clinton platform, and think she pushed Obama into Syria, though he of course gets ultimate responsibility.   

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  • 1 year later...
10 hours ago, Ishmael said:

They need to keep him alive somehow to serve out the full sentence. Even if it's just a brain in a jar.

Fucking hell! Ron Popiel get on that right away! Wait, what? he's dead too, DAMN!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Ripping off "Futurama")

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Manafort case thrown out by state judge in NY.

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Thing is, Trump could shoot someone on on 5th ave etc etc, right?  Could he shoot, say, Rep. Collins on 5th Ave and get by with it?  I’d argue yes, because he’s annoying.  Most of these guys are annoying, even for their own crowd, so it gets down to Trump supporters having no friends, and therefore, Trump shooting one of the fold is not only good, it’s great!  (I think Rep. Cole figures that out yesterday...). Have any Trumpettes expressed any outrage over the Trump supporter who our Beautiful President expelled from his own rally?

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1 hour ago, kent_island_sailor said:

The New York judge determined that the state charges against Manafort overlapped with the federal crimes he was convicted for and thus protected him from being charged at the state level. 

Just in case anyone thought he didn't do it ;)

That's too bad, it means that Turnip can pardon him.

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26 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

This is interesting because the United States Supreme Court has allowed this double jeopardy but that is a New York state court which is throwing it out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/us/politics/supreme-court-double-jeopardy.html

I suspect that the argument will be that the Gamble case involved conduct prosecuted at the state level first, and fed level second, with the question being whether whether NY law allows subsequent prosecution of federal crimes. 


Edit.  Yup, the issue is whether it violated the NYS double jeopardy law. 

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1 hour ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I suspect that the argument will be that the Gamble case involved conduct prosecuted at the state level first, and fed level second, with the question being whether whether NY law allows subsequent prosecution of federal crimes. 


Edit.  Yup, the issue is whether it violated the NYS double jeopardy law. 

Cuomo signed something but then I guess this is why they play the football game.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-legislation-closing-new-yorks-double-jeopardy-loophole-authorizing-state

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