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VOICEMEMO: UPDATE MARK #2 24-09-18 Hi all,  Another message from me on the boat Maverick. It have been incredibly heavy. I’ll talk you trough this bizarre storm from the start of it until now.

Incredible to see Gregor's boat still happily sending out position reports. Looks for all the world like it's trying to spell something ....

This very nice drawing of the 18 GGR boats that started today, was created by Jacques Taglang.

Posted Images

8 hours ago, Sea Breeze 74 said:

And tack he does ....

It’s almost as if Jean Luc knows what he’s doing :-)

Separately, in a recent GGR talk (https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=370886553667817&id=1751709878415736&fs=1&focus_composer=0) I found it interesting to hear that he (Jean Luc) is one of the few entrants with a ham license and, unsurprisingly, he’s been using access to ham nets to get weather info.  (They said they sort of had to convince/explain to some other entrants unfamiliar with HF radio that the radio requirement wasn’t just a tick-the-box on-board gear requirement - the radio might actually be useful...)

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20 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

There is no way in the world Igor has been taking a swim and polish.

FB_IMG_1544619700229.jpg

I believe the “two old blokes” in their FB chat I referenced above said Igor had (probably not reluctantly!) decided to retire - no surprise there.

What was the cause of this mussel explosion?  They missed putting on antifouling before launching the boat months ago?!  I think is what I heard!

And Slats has tacked. Must’ve missed that earlier.

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33 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

I found it interesting to hear that he (Jean Luc) is one of the few entrants with a ham license and, unsurprisingly, he’s been using access to ham nets to get weather info.  (They said they sort of had to convince/explain to some other entrants unfamiliar with HF radio that the radio requirement wasn’t just a tick-the-box on-board gear requirement - the radio might actually be useful...)

Like most of Don's radio talk that is not right or incorrectly conveyed. Firstly most of them are forced to use a Ham voice network as the Marine voice network for individual voice transmission and receipt is nearly non existent (other than cruiser networks and a few private marine land stations), other than voice transmission only by govt land stations of weather etc for recepit by individuals. Secondly a marine radio must be attached to a individual ship station licence and any operator of same licenced. Every competitor enjoys that. Thirdly a Ham operator while they can listen to marine frequencies they are prohibited from transmitting on marine frequencies and severe penalties apply. Strictly speaking a Marine operator can't transmit on Ham frequencies but the reality is they can and do so with no drama.

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Like most of Don's radio talk that is not right or incorrectly conveyed. Firstly most of them are forced to use a Ham voice network as the Marine voice network for individual voice transmission and receipt is nearly non existent, other than voice transmission only by land stations of weather etc for recepit by individuals. Secondly a marine radio must be attached to a individual ship station licence and any operator of same licenced. Every competitor enjoys that. Thirdly a Ham operator while they can listen to marine frequencies they are prohibited from transmitting on marine frequencies and severe penalties apply. Strictly speaking a Marine operator can't transmit on Ham frequencies but the reality is they can and do so with no drama.

Sorry - yes - I omitted details.  I was just trying to convey that it seems that JL, familiar with ham and HF, has probably been able to take full advantage of access to the non-marine freqs for info, as a ham.  I’m not sure which other entrants have.

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11 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

I’m not sure which other entrants have.

Most if not all, there is no-one listening out for them anymore as explained. Crazy as it sounds I'm pretty sure the RO didn't understand the current day limitations of Marine voice only HF until after the start.

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13 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Most if not all, there is no-one listening out for them anymore as explained.

Sure, but isn’t it a reasonable  assumption, though, that JL is taking advantage of ham geek nets ashore etc for weather to keep at the top of the fleet?  (Besides that, overall, he has tons of sailing experience.)

Example: Jean on S/V Nereida (https://svnereida.com/blog ), currently approaching the Horn with Uku is clearly getting weather info help  through her shore ham contacts. (“6.30pm Made several good contacts on 14160 - unusual - of late, propagation has been bad but talked to Victoria, B.C., Florida, Connecticut....all with good clear signals.”)

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33 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Sure, but isn’t it a reasonable  assumption, though, that JL is taking advantage of ham geek nets ashore etc for weather to keep at the top of the fleet?  

Not Ham geek nets on shore. He set up along with others a Ham network, probably min 2 stations worldwide before leaving. I guess but don't know but the French competitors all used the same network. Igor for instance set up a Russian one before leaving, Susie also had her own. In terms of detailed weather info (not public access weather) unless you set up a Ham network (with agreed weather TX format) before you left, weather via public access marine HF is all you have. I think Cpt Coconut only had public access ie via Charleville Radio in Aust.

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Some interesting "skipper updates" in the last 24 hours...

-Sinclair officially retired.  Tracker doesn't show it yet, but everything else does.

-Igor confirmed his intent to resume racing in Chichester, probably Sunday.  It'll be interesting to see how his speed compares without the farm.  Probably not fast enough to beat any of the SH fleet to Hobart.

-Kopar was granted access to the exclusion zone in an effort to maximize Easting before a large storm arrives in ~2 days.

-Tapio confirms he has a bad barnacle situation.

-Don is optimistic about Uku rounding the horn before encountering any more nasty weather.  Starting to look like a cruise to third.

-Slats apparently had a new set of sails stored for the final stretch and has pulled them out.  I think catching VDH is quite unlikely, but he's giving it everything he can.

-Nothing new about VDH...  Just doing what he needs to.

 

The Kopar situation is confusing.  Looking at the forecast, if he wants to avoid that storm, I'd think he'd be better off with something like a ENE course, trying to let the worst of the storm pass south of him.  It seems to me that his present course sets him up to be run over with no place to go.  I'm also a little surprised by the comments about Uku "weather shows no storms. The door is open wide right now"...  That seems like tempting fate in a part of the world where one oughtn't.  (I realize Don wrote that, not Uku).  While the forecast doesn't have a huge storm, it definitely has a few waves of significant wind to manage before he can turn for home.  And I worry about Tapio.  The Horn is still a long way away at the speed he can do dragging the farm.

I've been pondering the impact of the barnacle farms on risk of catastrophic loss.  One big issue is that it slows you down and therefore means you'll be in the most dangerous part of the course longer.   But my question is more about the implications once you're already in bad weather.  On the plus side, the barnacles may act somewhat like a drogue, keeping your speed more manageable, while also bringing your center of gravity a bit lower...  But on the minus side, they won't work like a drogue in terms of helping your boat to stay at a downwind angle, and I'm thinking the drag under water and forward of the rudder may increase the boat's likelihood to pitchpole or turn sideways when surfing a large wave.  Hence my worry about Tapio.  Anyone have knowledge on the topic?

 

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2 hours ago, Your Mom said:

 

The Kopar situation is confusing.  Looking at the forecast, if he wants to avoid that storm, I'd think he'd be better off with something like a ENE course, trying to let the worst of the storm pass south of him.  It seems to me that his present course sets him up to be run over with no place to go.  I'm also a little surprised by the comments about Uku "weather shows no storms. The door is open wide right now"...  That seems like tempting fate in a part of the world where one oughtn't.  (I realize Don wrote that, not Uku).  While the forecast doesn't have a huge storm, it definitely has a few waves of significant wind to manage before he can turn for home.  And I worry about Tapio.  The Horn is still a long way away at the speed he can do dragging the farm.

 
Quote

Golden Globe Race

14 hrs · 

STORM ALERT for Istvan Kopar Solo Circumnavigator It looks familiar! Another one! The position of Istvan's boat on this map is real time now. The weather overlay is for 0800UTC on the 14th in just over two days time. We have just advised Istvan to Immediately head south as fast as possible. We hope he can make at least 180 miles which is the lower marker on the distance track. We then have to hope the forecast track of this storm will be correct. Going South has risks as it moves closer to the center with the sudden wind shift zone? If he gets south he may Miss the worst of it. It changed and intensified in the last 18hrs. Yesterday we ALERTED Istvan to run East as fast as possible to outrun it but this now does not work as it has changed track. It will be up to Istvan to decide what to do . GGR can only offer advice . we update him every 12 hrs. Keep your fingers crossed. #GGR2018.

 

 2nd quote taken from the GGR facebook feed.

It seems Don may have had a light bulb moment on the risks of diving into the centre of a storm. But he still advises it! 

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2 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Some interesting "skipper updates" in the last 24 hours...

-Sinclair officially retired.  Tracker doesn't show it yet, but everything else does.

-Igor confirmed his intent to resume racing in Chichester, probably Sunday.  It'll be interesting to see how his speed compares without the farm.  Probably not fast enough to beat any of the SH fleet to Hobart.

-Kopar was granted access to the exclusion zone in an effort to maximize Easting before a large storm arrives in ~2 days.

-Tapio confirms he has a bad barnacle situation.

-Don is optimistic about Uku rounding the horn before encountering any more nasty weather.  Starting to look like a cruise to third.

-Slats apparently had a new set of sails stored for the final stretch and has pulled them out.  I think catching VDH is quite unlikely, but he's giving it everything he can.

-Nothing new about VDH...  Just doing what he needs to.

 

The Kopar situation is confusing.  Looking at the forecast, if he wants to avoid that storm, I'd think he'd be better off with something like a ENE course, trying to let the worst of the storm pass south of him.  It seems to me that his present course sets him up to be run over with no place to go.  I'm also a little surprised by the comments about Uku "weather shows no storms. The door is open wide right now"...  That seems like tempting fate in a part of the world where one oughtn't.  (I realize Don wrote that, not Uku).  While the forecast doesn't have a huge storm, it definitely has a few waves of significant wind to manage before he can turn for home.  And I worry about Tapio.  The Horn is still a long way away at the speed he can do dragging the farm.

I've been pondering the impact of the barnacle farms on risk of catastrophic loss.  One big issue is that it slows you down and therefore means you'll be in the most dangerous part of the course longer.   But my question is more about the implications once you're already in bad weather.  On the plus side, the barnacles may act somewhat like a drogue, keeping your speed more manageable, while also bringing your center of gravity a bit lower...  But on the minus side, they won't work like a drogue in terms of helping your boat to stay at a downwind angle, and I'm thinking the drag under water and forward of the rudder may increase the boat's likelihood to pitchpole or turn sideways when surfing a large wave.  Hence my worry about Tapio.  Anyone have knowledge on the topic?

 

Last time a boat dove south into the forbidden zone it done get broke and the skipper needed a rescue.  That storm will  roll over Kopar and please let us not have another rescue.

Not sure what Don is looking at but by the 15th, Uku may be in a bit of a mess as well and for a longer time.  The SO (or Southern Pacific as some might called it) does not want to release its victims so quickly.

JL looks like he needs to get @ 500 north and then he is golden for a good while.  If I read things right Heede has an 18 hour time out courtesy of the King of Madness which translate into just under 100 miles (@ 5kts * 18 hrs) and given how crafty Heed is, he could play it so he starts the timer, jogs east to get better positioning and at 18 hours pops north again (then I ate a hat and sprouts today so waddaIknow).

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2 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Some interesting "skipper updates" in the last 24 hours...

-Sinclair officially retired.  Tracker doesn't show it yet, but everything else does.

-Igor confirmed his intent to resume racing in Chichester, probably Sunday.  It'll be interesting to see how his speed compares without the farm.  Probably not fast enough to beat any of the SH fleet to Hobart.

-Kopar was granted access to the exclusion zone in an effort to maximize Easting before a large storm arrives in ~2 days.

-Tapio confirms he has a bad barnacle situation.

-Don is optimistic about Uku rounding the horn before encountering any more nasty weather.  Starting to look like a cruise to third.

-Slats apparently had a new set of sails stored for the final stretch and has pulled them out.  I think catching VDH is quite unlikely, but he's giving it everything he can.

-Nothing new about VDH...  Just doing what he needs to.

 

The Kopar situation is confusing.  Looking at the forecast, if he wants to avoid that storm, I'd think he'd be better off with something like a ENE course, trying to let the worst of the storm pass south of him.  It seems to me that his present course sets him up to be run over with no place to go.  I'm also a little surprised by the comments about Uku "weather shows no storms. The door is open wide right now"...  That seems like tempting fate in a part of the world where one oughtn't.  (I realize Don wrote that, not Uku).  While the forecast doesn't have a huge storm, it definitely has a few waves of significant wind to manage before he can turn for home.  And I worry about Tapio.  The Horn is still a long way away at the speed he can do dragging the farm.

I've been pondering the impact of the barnacle farms on risk of catastrophic loss.  One big issue is that it slows you down and therefore means you'll be in the most dangerous part of the course longer.   But my question is more about the implications once you're already in bad weather.  On the plus side, the barnacles may act somewhat like a drogue, keeping your speed more manageable, while also bringing your center of gravity a bit lower...  But on the minus side, they won't work like a drogue in terms of helping your boat to stay at a downwind angle, and I'm thinking the drag under water and forward of the rudder may increase the boat's likelihood to pitchpole or turn sideways when surfing a large wave.  Hence my worry about Tapio.  Anyone have knowledge on the topic?

 

I would think that going down a wave with that barnacle farm on your bottom would be like riding a mountain bike down a steep trail with your front brake jammed on.  Not good for directional stability.  

 

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1 hour ago, bucc5062 said:

-Igor confirmed his intent to resume racing in Chichester, probably Sunday.  It'll be interesting to see how his speed compares without the farm.  Probably not fast enough to beat any of the SH fleet to Hobart.

Got to appreciate the fact he bothers to continue. He needs to get home anyway, I guess.

Igor needs to find a bit of new speed with the clean bottom, or he's going to miss Don's 'finish party' on Apr 22nd. 

Some motivation: tracker estimates Tapio's "Frutti di Mare" delivery to France on April 21st, so it should be nice and fresh for the party dinner.

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On 12/7/2018 at 12:01 PM, smackdaddy said:

Agreed. The whole "always scuttle" notion just doesn't make sense in situations like this. And, in any case, these boats being a "danger to others"? In the SO near Nemo? This is not exactly the milk run route.

PS - Is there a link to her radio call mentioned above?

 

On 12/7/2018 at 12:38 PM, littlechay said:

In the south Pacific.  A long way from the southern ocean thanks to the silliy latitude limits. 

As the silly latitude limits transitory latitude guidelines are changing once again, I wondered where the Southern Ocean begins.  It turns out that line has been changing over time, the most recent meaning is below 60 degrees, which is pretty far down there

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean

 

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So, on Igor’s barnacles, apparently he or his team may have paid someone to paint the bottom prior to re-launching in France, but evidently it was never done, or done very poorly (according to a FB comment on GGR post) How else to explain such growth?  Anyone?  Sure, they’re not fast boats, but they’ve been moving nonstop since July.  This is not normal.  (It’s all too easy to just say, as the predictable front page pic caption unhelpfully guffaws, “this is what happens when you sail 4ksb’s around the world.”)

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

The delta for the old guy and Slats will be in the 700's pretty shortly. The snakes and ladders timetable seems to change over the weekend so will be interesting see that delta come then.

The old guy is getting lifted now but not much pressure about. 

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12 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

So, on Igor’s barnacles, apparently he or his team may have paid someone to paint the bottom prior to re-launching in France, but evidently it was never done, or done very poorly (according to a FB comment on GGR post) How else to explain such growth?  Anyone?  Sure, they’re not fast boats, but they’ve been moving nonstop since July.  This is not normal.  (It’s all too easy to just say, as the predictable front page pic caption unhelpfully guffaws, “this is what happens when you sail 4ksb’s around the world.”)

Correction - I see now that Igor’s barnacle farm was his fault (GGR says he meant to, but didn’t, paint after a quick haul out and clean earlier, in France).

Not having any experience with barnacles on the open ocean, I’m quite curious why other boats (Mark Sinclair, Tapio, Slats’ [he’s been diving on his periodically], and Istvan’s, says recent GGR update) that were apparently antifouled grew them.  Has VDH’s boat grown such pelagic gooseneck  barnacles?  I don’t recall hearing about this (and I don’t recall hearing that he’s been diving on his hull - too busy sailing hard !).

It has has something to do with speed (the “4ksb” thing), but these boats have been moving continuously since July.  Poor antifouling paint? (vs. a lack of enough paint in Igor’s case) Is pelagic (as opposed to intertidal coastal) barnacle growth that common on a continuously moving boat?  I’ve no idea.  Anyone know who has lots of ocean sailing experience?  

I hadn’t even know there were two distinct species of gooseneck barnacles, the pelagic kind and the coastal/intertidal zone kind.  See: https://www.centralcoastbiodiversity.org/pelagic-goose-barnacle-bull-lepas-anatifera.html )

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6 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

It has has something to do with speed (the “4ksb” thing), but these boats have been moving continuously since July.  Poor antifouling paint? (vs. a lack of enough paint in Igor’s case) 

Discussed in detail many pages up. Igor sounds as though he hauled, left it out of the water too long and killed the copper biocide.

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Discussed in detail many pages up. Igor sounds as though he hauled, left it out of the water too long and killed the copper biocide.

Thanks - missed that.  Will have a look.  But did you see Mark Sinclair’s too?  Barnacles seem to be a problem, to a greater or lesser degree, for everyone.  

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26 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Thanks - missed that.  Will have a look.  But did you see Mark Sinclair’s too?  Barnacles seem to be a problem, to a greater or lesser degree, for everyone.  

As discussed upthread the difference is probably not their choice of coating system, albeit Heede using a copper infused topcoat probably has the best. It comes down to regular cleaning to expose and activate the biocide. Those that have done that the problem has been very manageble, those that haven't have paid the price, particularly the slower ones requiring more attention in that regard and the problem then compounding as they got slower.

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3 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Thanks - missed that.  Will have a look.  But did you see Mark Sinclair’s too?  Barnacles seem to be a problem, to a greater or lesser degree, for everyone.  

Yes.  Doesnt seem to make any difference what anti-fouling you use when in warmer water they appear.  You can just brush them off with your hand.  

The dont appear in cold water and I've not had them appear whilst inshore,  at least not significantly enough to remember. 

Now if this race had actually been through the souther ocean - barnacle problem solved. 

Never seen them on Trilux 

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

As discussed upthread the difference is probably not their choice of coating system, albeit Heede using a copper infused topcoat probably has the best. It comes down to regular cleaning to expose and activate the biocide. Those that have done that the problem has been very manageble, those that haven't have paid the price, particularly the slower ones requiring more attention in that regard and the problem then compounding as they got slower.

I wouldn't count out the choice of coating as a factor, though. Anyone hailing from the Baltic Sea has to use bottom paint essentially intended for lakes. Local regulation prevents any serious stuff from being sold or applied. I suppose this applies at least to Uku and Tapio, don't know about Igor (I don't know which port Igor started from - if Russia, probably different story there).  

This is because there really is a difference in the stuff allowed for Baltic Sea from what is internationally available. You can't even legally buy or apply the real stuff if you live by the Baltic Sea. So if you happen to live on the east coast of Sweden and travel to the Atlantic side for summer, you'll pick up stuff like you didn't paint at all.

The best source I can find right now is not an easy read, but here you go (from chapter 4.2 / page 12 onwards) : https://law.handels.gu.se/digitalAssets/1648/1648953_national-study---sweden.pdf 

Bottom line though: anyone from the Baltic should have repainted their bottoms in France. Of course they should have cleaned their bottoms too. But if I was out there dragging a farm of barnacles growing on a coat of environmentally super-friendly, Scandic approved, water soluble, non-poisonous, recyclable, decaffeinated crayon paint, .. I might find my lack of preparation to be the biggest problem.

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3 hours ago, Nord said:

But if I was out there dragging a farm of barnacles growing on a coat of environmentally super-friendly, Scandic approved, water soluble, non-poisonous, recyclable, decaffeinated crayon paint, .. I might find my lack of preparation to be the biggest problem.

Decaffeinated crayon paint will be the norm worldwide pretty soon with the ban on copper based biocide starting to roll out. It is already occured in parts of Nth Europe as you point out and occuring slowly state by state in the US for instance.

The replacement non copper biocide that seems to work well is Econea, a pharmaceutical that disappears quickly in the water unlike copper where concentration in the water column due to hull cleaning sterilises the area and is the major issue. Hence the copper ban in Washington State in the US effective 2020 only applies to recreational boats.

It seems Econea is good for hard-shell fouling like barnacles in particular who don't tend to stick. To deter soft-fouling organisms such as slime, algae, and weed a booster in the form of zinc omadine is used.

However I assume some countries might ban biocides all together remembering  the history of first TBT that got banned worldwide so the move to copper, and now copper is on the hit list. So there may be an inclination not to move to just the next biocide. That may be the case with Baltic Sea fronting countries, I don't know.

The only non-biocides offerings called "foul release" coatings are those which are silicon based. Apart from costly both in product, preperation and application they are really only suitable for boats regularly used and with minimum boat speeds in the order of 10kts.

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18 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Have no idea if this vid was beamed up post Cape Horn or something from the GoPro drop bag in Hobart.

What's the electronic device looking thing sitting on cockit combing behind Mark?

 

 

Sure looks like my old piston-driven autopilot.  That thing had a lot of miles on it.

But it doesn’t seem to have a tiller connection

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Have no idea if this vid was beamed up post Cape Horn or something from the GoPro drop bag in Hobart.

What's the electronic device looking thing sitting on cockit combing behind Mark?

 

Everything on the boat looks pristine (apart from Mark) , just look at the bright work so I guess this is pre start.

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Have no idea if this vid was beamed up post Cape Horn or something from the GoPro drop bag in Hobart.

What's the electronic device looking thing sitting on cockit combing behind Mark?

 

 

Oh, I’m pretty sure that’s just a perfectly allowed, unusual looking, vintage cassette tape player... :-)

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It looks as if JL will open the delta to Slatts to over 1000NM by the time he is off Recife. We don't need routing software to tell us that but here it is for illustration purposes. 

image.thumb.png.0a6d1279f5f61603544968f467485439.png

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On 12/10/2018 at 3:34 PM, littlechay said:

It looks as if Slatts has an opportunity to get within 800 NM or so of Heede before the end of the week but then the rubber band will stretch out to around 1k NM again.  It will be difficult for him close the gap enough to make a move. 

 

Slatts got the delta down to 735 NM as of the current report, better than anticipated for him, but as you say, it is pretty clear that VDH will open up now.  And the runway is getting short too, in a few days Slatts will have to be 25% faster for the remainder of the course.  It seems that further breakage to the boats will be the largest factor for these two, and the related boat breaking weather.

Meanwhile it is good to see that Istvan weathered the last low without rolling the mast into the water.  It looks like Uku (and J Socrates) will have to contend with it too, though appears to be a bit less intense.

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7 hours ago, littlechay said:

It looks as if JL will open the delta to Slatts to over 1000NM by the time he is off Recife. We don't need routing software to tell us that but here it is for illustration purposes

Chay that delta of around 1,000+ may actually be understated if the old guy can get get into a backing breeze a bit quicker. Slats on the other hand is guaranteed a very painfull 10+ days ahead with light to moderate headwinds.

If you then factor in Heede's guaranteed runway between Recife and his ITCZ doorway while Slats is still short of the trades, the Treacher could easily stretch that delta out further and have enough gas in the tank to either crawl home north of there taking pressure off the rig and or even incur a bit more damage/refix.

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I just did a quick back of envelope calc to the finish and this may surprise you all.

Providing first Slats at the end of 10 days from now is still struggling to get into the Trades, which current forecast says is highly likely, and second the old guy's rig doesn't shit itself before he enters the ICTZ, my guess is he will be around 1500nm plus or minus ahead of Slats at that ICTZ juncture. Store that delta number in your head for then subsequently compression, Slats catches up and then when Heede is up and out Slats is yet to hit the ITCZ.

After exiting the ICTZ and the Teacher gets far enough up the track then let's say the rig just says goodbye with more breeze less favourable TWA at those higher latitudes.

My guess that latitude will be somewhere around north of 28N or say north of the Canary Is when exiting the last remnants of rig friendly nth hemisphere trades. Looking at his mast damage involving a longitudinal 50mm or 2" plus slot at the start, maybe growing just below the spreader root, then it would by then probably reached its use by date where he simply can't correct it physically or counter that with a relaxed TWA any more. So hypothetically the rigs gone somewhere around 1500 to 2000nm of the finish depending on approach longitude to the finish.

So is all lost? I don't think so. He will be left with a very usable stump below that lower/spreader connection. Then noting the finish line is 46N, he can use up 18hrs at the penalty latitude before then say 500nm from the finish to rebuild shit with no further time penalty as it is was a penalty already incurred in the Pacific by him using his sat phone. Think about that RO rule on the run in terms of RO possible favourites?

So taking note of that Slats ITCZ delta I mentioned above, the old guy should have enough time even under jury rig to the finish and still take the prize. I don't know if he has a sewing machine on board, unlikely regarding his minimal weight plan, but if so that prospect of success increases.

That result would put him in the fucking history books of RTW racing, no matter what you may think of this event. If it happened old pricks will be leaving their nursing homes in droves to compete in the next edition and prove the RO right that this is not some millennial generation event for the Susie's and Mark's of the world, but a old persons adventure event. The RO got chirpy when Slats went down the Brazilian coast and looked gone. Crocodile tears at Susie going home in a Chinese freighter?

I always wondered why Peche a 50yo professional and a favourite was sacked by the RO with made up rules never transmitted to him so quickly and he has never been heard of again. I'm now catching up to the RO's plan. Peche knows it is my guess.

The Donald's RO future is dragging people out of nursing homes to better their past with an adventure alongside him in a steel Joshua clunker next time around, not attracting adventure young ones with no money. Current competitor age and socio/economic stats prove that.

My guess is the Maths Teacher going over the finish line without a rig will prove the RO's "old adventure money" business plan is on the money and with more PR you can poke a stick at. Huge success.

If that occurs I will be worshipping the old guy alongside my heros, and leave nothing for the RO's self promoting blood sucking  old people race plan.

795327894_Old_sailors_Y_Borth_NLW3362989.jpg.283857bc61705bc4bcd29a8c9aff34e2.jpg

 

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39 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Hope Slats is all right, big course change, speed dropping to 1 knot, course weird in regard to weather.

Leo I know he is a Dutch brother but he has more than a week now of crawl north ahead. Now no breeze and forced west into current so dead in the water. Windyty is very wrong real time outside high resolution postcodes, albeit the RO uses to direct people thinking it is.

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Yeah i know winds can be fickle, but it was to drastic, seems he has sorted it out, back to over 3 knots :) better course. Could be wind, small repair, barnacle cleaning or sail overboard etc.

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On 12/13/2018 at 3:29 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Hence the copper ban in Washington State in the US effective 2020 only applies to recreational boats.

The WA ban is on hold pending more research. 

https://www.marinadockage.com/washington-state-halts-ban-antifouling-copper-paints/

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I just did a quick back of envelope calc to the finish and this may surprise you all.

Providing first Slats at the end of 10 days from now is still struggling to get into the Trades, which current forecast says is highly likely, and second the old guy's rig doesn't shit itself before he enters the ICTZ, my guess is he will be around 1500nm plus or minus ahead of Slats at that ICTZ juncture. Store that delta number in your head for then subsequently compression, Slats catches up and then when Heede is up and out Slats is yet to hit the ITCZ.

After exiting the ICTZ and the Teacher gets far enough up the track then let's say the rig just says goodbye with more breeze less favourable TWA at those higher latitudes.

My guess that latitude will be somewhere around north of 28N or say north of the Canary Is when exiting the last remnants of rig friendly nth hemisphere trades. Looking at his mast damage involving a longitudinal 50mm or 2" plus slot at the start, maybe growing just below the spreader root, then it would by then probably reached its use by date where he simply can't correct it physically or counter that with a relaxed TWA any more. So hypothetically the rigs gone somewhere around 1500 to 2000nm of the finish depending on approach longitude to the finish.

So is all lost? I don't think so. He will be left with a very usable stump below that lower/spreader connection. Then noting the finish line is 46N, he can use up 18hrs at the penalty latitude before then say 500nm from the finish to rebuild shit with no further time penalty as it is was a penalty already incurred in the Pacific by him using his sat phone. Think about that RO rule on the run in terms of RO possible favourites?

So taking note of that Slats ITCZ delta I mentioned above, the old guy should have enough time even under jury rig to the finish and still take the prize. I don't know if he has a sewing machine on board, unlikely regarding his minimal weight plan, but if so that prospect of success increases.

That result would put him in the fucking history books of RTW racing, no matter what you may think of this event. If it happened old pricks will be leaving their nursing homes in droves to compete in the next edition and prove the RO right that this is not some millennial generation event for the Susie's and Mark's of the world, but a old persons adventure event. The RO got chirpy when Slats went down the Brazilian coast and looked gone. Crocodile tears at Susie going home in a Chinese freighter?

I always wondered why Peche a 50yo professional and a favourite was sacked by the RO with made up rules never transmitted to him so quickly and he has never been heard of again. I'm now catching up to the RO's plan. Peche knows it is my guess.

The Donald's RO future is dragging people out of nursing homes to better their past with an adventure alongside him in a steel Joshua clunker next time around, not attracting adventure young ones with no money. Current competitor age and socio/economic stats prove that.

My guess is the Maths Teacher going over the finish line without a rig will prove the RO's "old adventure money" business plan is on the money and with more PR you can poke a stick at. Huge success.

If that occurs I will be worshipping the old guy alongside my heros, and leave nothing for the RO's self promoting blood sucking  old people race plan.

795327894_Old_sailors_Y_Borth_NLW3362989.jpg.283857bc61705bc4bcd29a8c9aff34e2.jpg

 

A very interesting analysis and while I'm not questioning it (God forbid I have to eat shit again) it hinges on him losing a mast.  Is it possible he's figured a way to put a brace on the damaged section?  Does he have the tools to move the shroud connection point and re-rig?  It is clear he can't wrap something round the mast for then he'd not be able to drop the main, but could there be a splint screwed over the tear?  He had to do something, and if it holds to the end I cannot wait to see what he rigged to keep the mast complete.  (Remember, I'm a naive optimist) 

Don may get some nursing home rejects to take a chance on going RTW in outdated, slow, obviously not good platforms for the Southern oceans boat, but 2022 is 4 years away and smart sailors, seeing how this crapfest went, would (I hope) put serious consideration in giving this man his fame while they take all the risk.  Doing this on the 50th anniversary is one thing, a one off event to celebrate the memories of the original adventurers, but to do it again?  There is no point, no rational value especially if he even restricts more the ability to get good weather information.  People should learn from their mistakes, but folks like Don don't and one day, it won't just be boats being left at sea.  Heede is the exception here, not the rule.

I read Susie's statement, and hope that what she's saying is she'd do a RTW again, but I'd rather she do it in the VG and not wait 4 years to feed Don's ego.                     

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44 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

A very interesting analysis and while I'm not questioning it (God forbid I have to eat shit again) it hinges on him losing a mast.  Is it possible he's figured a way to put a brace on the damaged section? 

Bucc I will go one step further. The rig has to come down.

If he does by the grace of God get to the penalty lattitude (is it 40N?) with the rig still standing and with a 18 penalty hours to burn up. Well then with Nth Atlantic weather in Jan/Feb to the finish , he should use that free time to beat the enivitable to the punch and  drop the top bit off there and then...and go jury to the finish.

Though maybe he shouldn't tell the Mad King about the angle grinder thing, it may effect the RO's book sales and next edition entries from the sailor nursing home.

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

Yeah i know winds can be fickle, but it was to drastic, seems he has sorted it out, back to over 3 knots :) better course. Could be wind, small repair, barnacle cleaning or sail overboard etc.

Here is the reason.  Posts in reverse chronological order,  read from the bottom up. 

IMG_20181216_091525.thumb.jpg.ddb2c088eb00bf5350e1423d89f49701.jpg

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19 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Here is the reason.  Posts in reverse chronological order,  read from the bottom up. 

I think he got smacked by the arse end of that low with a southerly hitting that warm quick current so a sea state fetal position not a huge wind. He is going to be annoyed shortly losing breeze, on the nose and being forced onto starboard tack at times and west into the current. 

He will need the patience of Job for the next 10 days.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Bucc I will go one step further. The rig has to come down.

If he does by the grace of God get to the penalty lattitude (is it 40N?) with the rig still standing and with a 18 penalty hours to burn up. Well then with Nth Atlantic weather in Jan/Feb to the finish , he should use that free time to beat the enivitable to the punch and  drop the top bit off there and then...and go jury to the finish.

Though maybe he shouldn't tell the Mad King about the angle grinder thing, it may effect the RO's book sales and next edition entries from the sailor nursing home.

When he gets up  just a little bit more he should have champagne sailing for quite some time.  Even after he tip toes through the ITCZ he's got another 1000 miles of non-punishing sailing by the time he gets to 40.  If he still has a working mast at that point I'm not sure if it is more you want him to lose if and sail in with a jury rig, beating all odds and what a hell of a story (for Don) or lose it, finish on jury rig, because that throws a big FU to this whole thing (Don still gets the glory).  I'd like him to finish with his stick intact, shake Don's hand, then tell him he'd never do something like that again with Don in charge.  Sailing, like the horse world is a small community so one needs to pick one's battles, but while Don can throw kudos after kudos on this "success", I don't care if Christ himself decided to enter in 2022, I won't support this "thing" again.  However, if Heede wrote a fictional tale about a guy who sailed in the Silver Cube Round the World Race, suffered storms, calms, and a torn up rig to win the event...why'd I read that book :) 

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5 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

I'd like him to finish with his stick intact, shake Don's hand, then tell him he'd never do something like that again with Don in charge. 

Until he gets the keys and checked the utilities bills to his apartment he may postpone that.

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50 minutes ago, harrygee said:

Bucc.

Don is an alpha male, born with the collective knowledge of the human race.

Alpha males don't make mistakes.

They don't learn from them either.

That got me to laugh tonight and I needed it.
 

On a different note, how does one get into the Vendee'?  Ms Goodall is rarin' to get back out and I think she's done her time in the hellhole of tubs.  MacAuthur did the VG at 24, coming in second.  I remember her recounting having to climb a mast in the dark heading towards the finish and was amazed at her strength of will.  What would be fantastic is if she could convince DHL to sponser her on a IMOCA boat and truly see what she can do.  She did a hell of a job despite falling into holes and the first person I'd hired for the shore/wx/routing team would the JLH.  Maybe she'd even give Hugo Boss something to think about.

Don may have the collective knowledge of the human race...but he can't organize worth a shit.

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Uku going for the Horn?  

Jeanne Socrates on Nereida, near Uku and also waiting for conditions to abate in order to round Cabo de Hornos, logged yesterday (0300 GMT Sat Dec 15/Sun Dec 16?):

“The warnings of 55kt gusts in two areas and 6m seas or more are still there on two different weather models so I said [to Peter, ZL1PWM, Northland Radio, NZ] I'd keep to my plan of heaving to where I was at that point and wait for a day or more so that when I reach the Cape, conditions would not be so intense. Uku spoke to me also - he was going to continue on, despite the warnings”

(Her last log entry 1900 GMT ystdy (Sat Dec 15...or is that Sun local time?) says, “Still hove to - on to Horn late Sun...or Mon?”)

https://svnereida.com/blog

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5 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Uku going for the Horn?  

Jeanne Socrates on Nereida, near Uku and also waiting for conditions to abate in order to round Cabo de Hornos, logged yesterday (0300 GMT Sat Dec 15/Sun Dec 16?):

“The warnings of 55kt gusts in two areas and 6m seas or more are still there on two different weather models so I said [to Peter, ZL1PWM, Northland Radio, NZ] I'd keep to my plan of heaving to where I was at that point and wait for a day or more so that when I reach the Cape, conditions would not be so intense. Uku spoke to me also - he was going to continue on, despite the warnings”

(Her last log entry 1900 GMT ystdy (Sat Dec 15...or is that Sun local time?) says, “Still hove to - on to Horn late Sun...or Mon?”)

https://svnereida.com/blog

According to the model Don looks at it will flat calm when Uku gets to the horn so it seems he's told him. Its fine (source FB) 

On the other hand Jeanne has a history of being cautious in this area,  not always to her benefit. After all gusting 55 means forecast winds of 30 + a bit,  uncomfortable but not terrible.

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22 minutes ago, littlechay said:

According to the model Don looks at it will flat calm when Uku gets to the horn so it seems he's told him. Its fine (source FB) 

On the other hand Jeanne has a history of being cautious in this area,  not always to her benefit. After all gusting 55 means forecast winds of 30 + a bit,  uncomfortable but not terrible.

Thanks - hasn’t seen that update.  Who knows which model is right!  

 Looks dicey for Istvan...possibly 60-70?!

I recall reading somewhere that the force of the wind increases by the square when speed doubles.  So, when the wind speed doubles from, say, 20 to 40 knots, the force it creates intense by 2 squared, or four times.  Food for thought...

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5 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Thanks - hasn’t seen that update.  Who knows which model is right!  

 Looks dicey for Istvan...possibly 60-70?!

I recall reading somewhere that the force of the wind increases by the square when speed doubles.  So, when the wind speed doubles from, say, 20 to 40 knots, the force it creates intense by 2 squared, or four times.  Food for thought...

Wind Pressure

You can get a general idea of the pressure on a 1-foot–by–1-foot section of a structure by using the following formula: wind pressure per square foot = 0.00256 x the square of the wind speed. For example, a 40-mile-per-hour (mph) wind speed creates a pressure of (0.00256 x (40)^2) = 4.096 pounds per square foot (psf). According to this formula, a structure meant to withstand 100-mph winds must be built to resist a wind pressure of 25.6 psf. Several websites offer multifactor online calculators to determine wind pressures on standard structures.

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Remind me again why there was some forbidden zone if half the fleet was able to cross south of the line?

Slow crawl for the boys up front at the moment.  Neither catching a break soon, but JHL needs @ 450 miles and he can get a nice long starboard pull.

I guess Susie's boat has sunk.  It stopped reporting on the 8th and I remember comments here saying those tracker batteries can last a bit.

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20 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

Remind me again why there was some forbidden zone if half the fleet was able to cross south of the line?

Slow crawl for the boys up front at the moment.  Neither catching a break soon, but JHL needs @ 450 miles and he can get a nice long starboard pull.

I guess Susie's boat has sunk.  It stopped reporting on the 8th and I remember comments here saying those tracker batteries can last a bit.

No go zone keeps sailors out of potential ice areas and where lows generally more intense.  Because of storm tracks, Istav/others permitted to cross into to avoid worst of some storms.  (E.g., see Istvan’s recent sudden dive on tracker basically due south across “the line”.)  Seems reasonable, given that they’re handicapped for advanced wx info on-board?

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18 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

Wind Pressure

You can get a general idea of the pressure on a 1-foot–by–1-foot section of a structure by using the following formula: wind pressure per square foot = 0.00256 x the square of the wind speed. For example, a 40-mile-per-hour (mph) wind speed creates a pressure of (0.00256 x (40)^2) = 4.096 pounds per square foot (psf). According to this formula, a structure meant to withstand 100-mph winds must be built to resist a wind pressure of 25.6 psf. Several websites offer multifactor online calculators to determine wind pressures on standard structures.

Physics: Force = Mass x Velocity squared

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50 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

No go zone keeps sailors out of potential ice areas and where lows generally more intense.  Because of storm tracks, Istav/others permitted to cross into to avoid worst of some storms.  (E.g., see Istvan’s recent sudden dive on tracker basically due south across “the line”.)  Seems reasonable, given that they’re handicapped for advanced wx info on-board?

I seriously doubt ice was an issue and given that three boats were trashed above that line, I don't think it did a damn bit of good.  The fact that the were "allowed" to cross to avoid the worst of a storm indicates that its value in "safety" was moot.  Kopar get a "fine" for cutting a corner, Uku can cut another to avoide a storm that was not an issue on his course.  Susie was told too late to be allowed to cross the line.

I get why something like the VOR or VG need an ice line, they are traveling at speeds that would make it a bad day to meet ice at any time.  This line did not exist in 68', it did not help any this time around.

yet the Don can call them up sand say, "go south young men" to be safe and these sailors can then only what...trust the Don?

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2 hours ago, bucc5062 said:

Wind Pressure

You can get a general idea of the pressure on a 1-foot–by–1-foot section of a structure by using the following formula: wind pressure per square foot = 0.00256 x the square of the wind speed. For example, a 40-mile-per-hour (mph) wind speed creates a pressure of (0.00256 x (40)^2) = 4.096 pounds per square foot (psf). According to this formula, a structure meant to withstand 100-mph winds must be built to resist a wind pressure of 25.6 psf. Several websites offer multifactor online calculators to determine wind pressures on standard structures.

So, for my boat, recognizing my boat is a little extreme, 40mph winds generate 14,000 lbs of force on the sails (if we kept them all up).  Wind speed is reduced, of course, by the boat speed - so really only about 3-4,000 lbs of effective force if we stayed in a stable state.  Still very much plenty.  And when you go splat, you get the full force.  And break stuff.  

At 100mph, the wind pressure would be about 90,000 lbs.  That would be amazing to watch, for the second or two before the boat flew by overhead.

The logarithmic increase in pressure is why I tell my crew that after 30-32 knots of breeze, you are just attempting to "arrive alive" and are no longer effectively racing. 

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50 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

So, for my boat, recognizing my boat is a little extreme, 40mph winds generate 14,000 lbs of force on the sails (if we kept them all up).  Wind speed is reduced, of course, by the boat speed - so really only about 3-4,000 lbs of effective force if we stayed in a stable state.  Still very much plenty.  And when you go splat, you get the full force.  And break stuff.  

At 100mph, the wind pressure would be about 90,000 lbs.  That would be amazing to watch, for the second or two before the boat flew by overhead.

The logarithmic increase in pressure is why I tell my crew that after 30-32 knots of breeze, you are just attempting to "arrive alive" and are no longer effectively racing. 

I posted a video on here somewhere of 80 knot willawaws. 

GFS forecasts in Cape Horn latitudes always over estimate at long range and approach reality as the time gets closer.  Its not unusual to see 50k forecast come down to 25 or 30k. Other models differ :)

Reported windspeeds must be taken with a pinch of salt.  I doubt these guys have calibrated their anemometers (those that have them)  for the height of the mast.  Very few under report windspeed when telling a story. But if you as a solid old hand what the wind speed was and he mutter "fucking fresh" you get an idea ;)

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2 minutes ago, littlechay said:

I posted a video on here somewhere of 80 knot willawaws. 

GFS forecasts in Cape Horn latitudes always over estimate at long range and approach reality as the time gets closer.  Its not unusual to see 50k forecast come down to 25 or 30k. Other models differ :)

Reported windspeeds must be taken with a pinch of salt.  I doubt these guys have calibrated their anemometers (those that have them)  for the height of the mast.  Very few under report windspeed when telling a story. But if you as a solid old hand what the wind speed was and he mutter "fucking fresh" you get an idea ;)

Never been there, but from what I've read when considering it, the williwaws descending out of the channels on the Chilean coast can hit like a solid wall of 80 knots.  Makes cruising there sporty.  

Around here, Environment Canada almost always over-predicts winds along the west coast of BC,  they seem to predict the highest velocity likely to be experienced somewhere in the forecast area.  However, in the upper wind ranges, their near term predictions are often quite accurate and if they say 40 to 50, we have learned to believe them and stay snug.  Especially since a lee shore is usually nearby.

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1 hour ago, Left Shift said:

Never been there, but from what I've read when considering it, the williwaws descending out of the channels on the Chilean coast can hit like a solid wall of 80 knots.  Makes cruising there sporty.  

 

Yes in the channels that can be true but these guys are nowhere near enough to the coast to be affected by Williwaws,  which are very local.

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3 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Never been there, but from what I've read when considering it, the williwaws descending out of the channels on the Chilean coast can hit like a solid wall of 80 knots.  Makes cruising there sporty.  

Around here, Environment Canada almost always over-predicts winds along the west coast of BC,  they seem to predict the highest velocity likely to be experienced somewhere in the forecast area.  However, in the upper wind ranges, their near term predictions are often quite accurate and if they say 40 to 50, we have learned to believe them and stay snug.  Especially since a lee shore is usually nearby.

Yes - we once blithely ignored Environment Canada’s gale warning for Johnstone Strait - after all the somewhat exaggerated forecasts in lower wind speeds. Won’t do that again!  

(Was listening to VHF today —after finally finishing new antenna hook up— and they’re forecasting hurricane force winds for NW coast of Vancouver Island tonight/tomorrow...)

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34 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Yes - we once blithely ignored Environment Canada’s gale warning for Johnstone Strait - after all the somewhat exaggerated forecasts in lower wind speeds. Won’t do that again!  

(Was listening to VHF today —after finally finishing new antenna hook up— and they’re forecasting hurricane force winds for NW coast of Vancouver Island tonight/tomorrow...)

Not a day to be sailing off of Brooks on a flood tide.  The first map is the gust map is seriously ugly. 1320987552_ScreenShot2018-12-16at5_44_00PM.thumb.png.b0ed059f9d47336d5a32cc86b1ca959f.png

1989744122_ScreenShot2018-12-16at5_37_58PM.png.4e0eb9391fa79721a0b8c3137a5522d7.png

 

 

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1 hr ·IGOR has a health issue that may cause some delays to his plans. there is a translation of the statement below. We all wish him well and #GGR2018 looks forward to seeing him back sailing toward the finish in Les Sables d'Olonne Agglomération as a Chichester sailor when he is ready! There is NO time limit. GOOD LUCK IGOR!!!! ..Good health to you!!
 
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43 minutes ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

You’d think Gregor would think it worth his while to fly to Perth, and...

But maybe b/c sponsored was insured and written off/paid out?!

Can't be economic to salvage back to Ireland given flight + transport costs. Sentimental value only.

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On 12/15/2018 at 4:42 PM, bucc5062 said:

I don't care if Christ himself decided to enter in 2022, I won't support this "thing" again.   

Now, that's the beginning of a great joke:

Jesus, Moses and Mohammed decide to enter a single-handed round the world sailboat race....

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