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VOICEMEMO: UPDATE MARK #2 24-09-18 Hi all,  Another message from me on the boat Maverick. It have been incredibly heavy. I’ll talk you trough this bizarre storm from the start of it until now.

Incredible to see Gregor's boat still happily sending out position reports. Looks for all the world like it's trying to spell something ....

This very nice drawing of the 18 GGR boats that started today, was created by Jacques Taglang.

Posted Images

1 hour ago, Left Shift said:

Tracker says that eastern lane is narrowing down to a goat track.

All I'm seeing is the eastern lane for the hand Slats has played.  Of course there's VDH's mast problem and a whole lot of upwind ahead of them both.  Mega card game for these two to play out.  This isn't as dull to watch as some suggested.

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14 minutes ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

11 out of 28 boats did not finish the last Vendee Globe.

How does that rate percentage wise to the two Round the World races going on in old boats at the moment?

I got to say, as far as the Vendee Globe goes, with the trashing of these old boats (and a lot of it justified) in this forum by various posters, I am surprised at the amount of DNF in the Vendee Globe.

Table source below is Wikipedia

Table: Registrants, 2016–2017 Vendée Globe[54]

Sailor Yacht Launch Date/Designer Time
France Armel Le Cléac'h Banque Populaire VIII § Jun 2015/VPLP-Verdier 74d 03h 35' 46" (current record)[55]
United Kingdom Alex Thomson Hugo Boss § Sep 2015/VPLP-Verdier 74d 19h 35' 15"[56]
France Jérémie Beyou Maître CoQ § Sep 2010/VPLP-Verdier 78d 06h 38' 40"[57]
France Jean-Pierre Dick StMichel-Virbac § Sep 2015/VPLP-Verdier 80d 01h 45' 45"[58]
France Yann Eliès Quéguiner - Leucémie Espoir Aug 2007/VPLP-Verdier 80d 03h 11' 09"[59]
France Jean Le Cam Finistère Mer Vent Jan 2007/Farr 80d 04h 41' 54"[60]
France Louis Burton Bureau Vallée Sep 2006/Farr 87d 19h 45' 49"[61]
Hungary Nándor Fa Spirit Of Hungary Apr 2014/Nándor Fa & Attila Déry 93d 22h 52' 09"[62]
France Éric Bellion Comme un Seul Homme May 2008/Finot-Conq 99d 04h 56' 20"[63]
France Arnaud Boissières La Mie Câline Feb 2007/Farr 102d 20h 24' 09"[64]
France Fabrice Amedeo Newrest - Matmut Jul 2007/Farr 103d 21h 01' 00"[65]
Switzerland Alan Roura La Fabrique Jul 2000/Pierre Rolland 105d 20h 10' 32"[66]
United States Rich Wilson Great American IV Sep 2006/Owen Clarke 107d 00h 48' 18"[67]
Spain Didac Costa One Planet One Ocean Jan 2000/Owen Clarke 108d 19h 50' 45"[68]
France Romain Attanasio Famille Mary - Etamine Du Lys Jan 1998/Marc Lombard 109d 22h 04' 00"[69]
New Zealand/United States Conrad Colman Foresight Natural Energy Jan 2005/Lavranos-Artech 110d 01h 58' 41"[53]
Netherlands Pieter Heerema No Way Back § Aug 2015/VPLP-Verdier 116d 09h 24' 12"[70]
France Sébastien Destremau TechnoFirst - FaceOcean Jan 1998/Finot 124d 12h 38' 18"[71]
Did not finish
Republic of Ireland Enda O’Coineen Kilcullen Voyager - Team Ireland Aug 2007/Owen Clarke & Clay Oliver day 56: Dismasted 180 nm SE of New Zealand[72]
France Paul Meilhat SMA Jan 2011/VPLP-Verdier day 49: Hydraulic-keel fissured[73]
France Thomas Ruyant Le Souffle Du Nord Pour Le Projet Imagine Jan 2007/VPLP-Verdier day 44: Damaged hull due to collision with an UFO[74]
France Stéphane Le Diraison Compagnie Du Lit - Boulogne Billancourt Jan 2007/Finot-Conq day 41: Dismasted 950 nautical miles away from Australia[75]
France Sébastien Josse Edmond De Rothschild § Aug 2015/VPLP-Verdier day 30: Damage port foil - South of Australia[76]
France Kito de Pavant Bastide Otio May 2010/VPLP-Verdier day 30: Damaged keel - North of Crozet Islands[77]
Japan Kojiro Shiraishi Spirit Of Yukoh Jan 2007/Farr day 27: Damaged masthead - South of Cape of Good Hope[78]
France Tanguy De Lamotte Initiatives-Cœur Sep 2006/Farr day 23: Damaged masthead - North of Cape Verde Islands[79]
France Morgan Lagravière Safran § Mar 2015/VPLP-Verdier day 19: Damaged rudder - South Atlantic[80]
France Vincent Riou PRB Mar 2010/VPLP-Verdier day 17: Damaged keel - South Atlantic[81]
France Bertrand De Broc MACSF Jul 2007/Finot-Conq day 14: Damaged keel[82]

5 out of 18 starters are currently making progress through the water toward France.  One of which has a cracked mast (the leader) and one of which is approximately an ocean behind, and hasn't yet passed a boat that was abandoned weeks ago.  Five boats have been abandoned mid-ocean and left adrift.  Not a great record. 

So far, apparently, no one is lurking mid-atlantic and fabricating their logs.

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30 minutes ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

Percentages of ‘Did not Finish’  Vendee  Globe since 1989-90

1989-90 =  42.85%  DNF

1992-93 =  50%  DNF

1996-97 =  62.5% DNF

2000-01 = 37.5%  DNF

2004-05 = 35% DNF

2008-09 = 60% DNF

2012-13 = 45% DNF

2016-17 = 39% DNF

You're right.   So far the GGR has a much higher attrition rate than all the Vendee Globes and it's far from over. 

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3 hours ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

Strange - I thought these modern boats were so, so, so much better than the old shit boxes that the percentages of DNF would not be so high.

I hardly think it strange, you are comparing a Landrover to a Masserati for the job of quickly circling the globe .

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16 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

More like a Humber (with Lucas electrics) versus that Maserati.

I should have said pre 90's Landrover to maintain the marvels of Lucas electrics. Actually I have owned a few Lucas powered English vehicles up to a quarter of a century old and Perkins marine diesels and I think I'm the only one on planet earth never have had a serious Lucas problem, and for minor ones they involved a quick self fix impossible with more modern varients. 

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4 hours ago, Peanutbutterjars said:

I calculate current DNF in GGR at 70%.

Granted, the race is not yet finished, but currently 7.5% and 10% more DNF than the '96-'97 and '08-'09 Vendee Globe. 

I would not classify that as "much higher" at this point in time,  but I accept before it's all over your ascertation may then be correct. 

Or you could say that 25% more finished the race even in the worst VG so far compared to boats still racing in GGR.

Or then you can get totally different figures, if you count the failures per hours spent at sea. GGR boats are likely to be safer in that statistic.

VG uses the latest technology. DNF rate would be much better, if they didn't allow so much (canting keel, foils etc). For GGR Don tried to choose the boats he thought had highest success rate in the 32-36" range 60's boats. Quite a big difference in the approach.

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Regards to Heede and Slat's epic crawl up the Atlantic, As was mentioned on the way down, given the slow speed, the shortest distance is generally the better route and even if Heed needs to crack off a bit, it would still seem better to tack up the rhumb line, taking advantage of any shifts along the way.  He may be babying his mast a bit, but if I remember, starboard tacks were better for him and the wind generally favors that.

Slats, he may need to work west of risk a bigger ITCZ light area to cross where as It looks like Heede will once again have found favor with the wind god.  After that Slats still faces the same general problem of upwind sailing so it seems oranges to oranges once both get into the North Atlantic.

 

Since there is no handicap between the two, normally Slats would have to beat him boat to boat, crossing first, but what would be curious to calculate is the penalty impact of (18 hours?).  18 * @ 4.5 kts = 81 (avg upwind) to at most 18 * 7 = 126 miles,meaning the finish line for Slats is anywhere from 81 to 126 miles behind Heede if he didn't have to do some stupid penalty box thing.  Either way he gives up that distance.  I think that will be a long row to hoe for Slats, but if he gets close....it could get interesting.

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45 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

  ..I think that will be a long row to hoe for Slats..

I love constants . Bucc you steadfastly elect to remain clueless and write reams of nonsense, albeit very analytical which is great, but despite being given real life clues.

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I love constants . Bucc you remain clueless, despite being given the clues.

But I'm a happy clueless, besides I like being the straight guy to your quips, it makes for interesting posts.  Enlighten me Obiwan for I did see the LC routing image that had Heede going pretty much straight along the line, I saw your pretty image of the globe with the clouds showing where not to go crossing the equator, and I saw the clue that Slats had to do 27% better to win this thing and that does seem like it a tough job.

Did you wake up grumpy today?  I hope Santa was good to you for Christmas.

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7 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

Did you wake up grumpy today? 

Hey Bucc,  JS hasn't hit the sack yet.  He's pulling an all nighter because the SH fleet can't possibly find Tassie without him keeping an eye on the shop .... lol

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6 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Hey Bucc,  JS hasn't hit the sack yet.  He's pulling an all nighter because the SH fleet can't possibly find Tassie without him keeping an eye on the shop .... lol

And laser as you force me into another Xmas tip, go sit on an ant heap with a dab of honey up your arse.

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1 hour ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

No f’ing way you could fit 7-8 months worth of supplies in a C32.  I’ve been in one only once - but seemed very tiny inside.

Speaking of which, what is the trash management plan for these tubs?  Most of them took off with stacks of glass jars and packaged foodstuffs.  Are they required to bring all that back home?  Is half of it headed for a Tasmanian land fill site?  Or are they slipping it over the side?

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12 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

GGR posted Dec 26 that VDH is (was at that moment in time) 1040 miles ahead of Slats.

(Here: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2192117917708261&id=1751709878415736 )

That is falsely measured. Don seems to measure the distance between the boats, not how far they are from finish. The tracker has shown up to 940 M difference in DTF, which seems to be quite accurate now.

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13 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Speaking of which, what is the trash management plan for these tubs?  Most of them took off with stacks of glass jars and packaged foodstuffs.  Are they required to bring all that back home?  Is half of it headed for a Tasmanian land fill site?  Or are they slipping it over the side?

Left no plastic shit over the side I think. The rest goes to the bottom. Many are using space in front of crash bulkhead to store their empty plastic bottles etc to aid flotation.

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Communications

Marine HF
1968 A lot of coast stations and weather bulletines.
2018 Most coast stations gone, almost all of the rest dropped voice weather. Good high seas prognoses available from Charlewille/Wiluna Radio(AUS) and Taupo Radio(NZ).
**** Any boat can make a phone call anywhere anytime. Coastal Radio Stations have many frequencies and commercial antennafields to cover their area.
**** Local meteological bureaus beat Windy model 10-1, within their area.
**** Maritime communications is not public in most countries (except distress channels) but nothing stops someone monitoring it.

Ham Radio
1968 No modern noise, a ham station situated at town can work with boats near Southern Ocean.
2018 To work daily with distant boats, you need a good rural location.
**** Most ham operators has neither maritime weather nor sailing experience. Peter(NZ) as an excemption offers weather equally.
**** Ham skeds are usually just once a day.
**** Propagation varies from nil to good by time, frequency, thunder, geomagnetic storms etc. A boat can lose contact with his ham team if plan isn't good. Some did.
**** Most of the entrants were not hams, some made up callsigns. Most of the ham operators wont work with such stations.
**** Generally, it's legal to listen, record and publish ham radio communications.

Satellites
1968 Nothing for race.
2018 Daily and weekly text messages / satellite phone calls
**** Its up to RO what he will publish.
**** We can't know what's happening within these networks. That's the problem.

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Xus

cit from russ forum

said on Dec 28, 2018 - 04: 19: 

And rage then? In the first race in 1968 started 9. One finished. One, on the strongest metal yacht, the leader, decided not to finish, but sail to the second around. One suicide. The rest are either saved or off. How are the results of this year different? What are the boats, are the results ...

Probably you are right.
But say very sad things. There is no progress in sailing skill for 50 years.
Yachts fantastically improved, communication, weather forecast ... The results of the aroundworld are incredible.
And the nautical skill level is the same.

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21 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Though you didn't mention DSC? ie to make a phone call anytime etc.

Well, I dont see big difference with DSC (to old school HF radiotelephone calls) when sailing middle of an ocean. There is still communities of listeners.
Everyone can use a satellitephone but marine HF's needs a good knowledge of propagation, frequencies, coast stations available and the radio. Oh, no "race" penalty box with HF calls!

Might differ where sailing, but I see advance of DSC-phone calls; Near coast(VHF/2 MHz), perhaps with language barrier for sudden calls when no sat phone available....when such service still available.

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4 hours ago, Texcom said:

Well, I dont see big difference with DSC (to old school HF radiotelephone calls) when sailing middle of an ocean. There is still communities of listeners.

Tex the point was the HF land station you want to contact to make that RadPhone call won't be listening to voice. Only way you can wake them up is with a DSC page.

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Lifted from the GGR facebook page. MS is showing some good ingenuity to repair stuff, he has used all his screws and must run out of available bits of wood soon   Good stuff. 

 

Quote

GREAT report from MARK about pushing to windward for days and the cost! #GGR2018

Image may contain: 1 person, sky and outdoor
Mark Slats is with Christophe Favreau.
10 hrs · 

VOICE UPDATE MARK #15

Hey, here's a message from me. A small update on how things are going on board. I thought it might be fun between Christmas and New Year. Everything goes well on board. Sailing close hauled for 14 days in a row had a huge impact on the boat. The suspension bracket of the wind vane completely torn off, he thick-walled steel pipe, it’s not completely torn but for 60% torn, so it suddenly came off almost completely. I have repaired the whole thing with some wooden doors. I made a whole new suspension system. Funny, because I did not stop sailing at all. While the wind vane was steering, I started to make the repairs. As Don said earlier this week it’s a 'Flinstones repair' but it is stronger than ever. I have been working from 16:00 pm until 3:00 am to fix it and to make sure it is really good. I used all the screws I had on board, so that's nice also. Now it’s really super solid, I used half a tube of sikaflex and off we go. I have now reached the tradewinds. For the next 4-5 days it’s all easy. When I reach the equator it will be close hauled again. Right now It’s so hot on board. It is not normal. When I go outside, most if the time it’s all wet and I'm still not healed on my buttocks from the Atlantic rowing. Those spots immediately reappear when my butt is wet for too long. So that’s the situation right now. So I really hurt my * & ^%, it’s really annoying. It feels like there are some kind of marbles in my buttocks. I cleaned my buttocks completely yesterday. Ah well nice story again. So I have completely cleaned it. Now I got wipes on it, it is better. After keeping it dry for a day, it feels better immediately. But when I have to get on the deck it is just soaking wet again so I’m wearing my sailing gear again. Outside it’s forty degrees Celsius and I'm in a full Southern Ocean suit to change my sails. It is what it is! I am working on it all,. It all goes well. My gas stove has fallen apart this week. I heard a bang at night and the whole stove was on the floor. But I managed to repair the stove so it’s back in business again. The last days it was just jumping out of the waves and then folding down. The mast foot has also broken. I could fix it also with wood I had on board. The fact is that sailing close hauled has more impact than the wind in the Southern Ocean can tell you. Because in general, in the Southern Ocean, there hasn’t been much of a problem. There often was a lot of wind, but if you do it right, it is all perfect. Oh please, this is very important, really the most important thing when I arrive … then you really have to bring me ‘Zaanse Mayonnaise’. You know those tubes. I really need that mayonnaise. You can’t buy it in France and when I have to stay in Les Sables d’Olonne for a week or two ... I’ll really enjoy eating good food. It will be nice to eat eggs with the mayonnaise. That would be very nice. So whether you can take 4 or 5 of those tubes with me so that I can enjoy them just as well!

 

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Uku has sailed himself into a bit of hole. He is going to have trouble extracting himself from that. 

PWE Forecast 10:00 31 Jan NZ time. i.e. 24 hours from now. I think I saw a GGR update that he was letting a storm pass in front. He seems to be doing just that. 

image.thumb.png.1f250a1dd1b79f3328110eff64c51e2c.png

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from Jeanne Socrates' blog - who was "hove-to" while slowly heading west for the last two days (~25 miles), as a heavy weather avoidance strategy:

Day 88 Sat-Sun 29-30 Dec 2018 Finally underway again, just before midday Sunday
30 December 2018 21:13
https://svnereida.com/blog/4968-day-88-sat-sun-29-30-dec-2018-finally-underway-again-just-before-midday-sunday

Quote

Sunday 4am Hoped to make contact with Uku - but was not on any frequency at usual time. Think he's probably got some pretty nasty conditions where he is now - high thirty knots with gusts in fifties quite likely and seas to match - not nice.... If he'd had access to proper weather info, he might well have avoided the system - but that was not allowed under GGR rules - I disagree thoroughly with that policy - leads unnecessarily to dangerous situations for the racers. How many are left...?? And how many completed the original race...?? Uku also does not have a Jordan Series Drogue which, properly deployed, keeps boats safe in strong conditions.
[...]
end of Day 88. We mostly drifted another 11 n.ml. DMG over the 24 hr period, measured in a straight line between the two 1900 GMT positions.

 

Day 87 Fri-Sat 28-29 Dec 2018 Hove to - drifting mainly W - nearly made a heart-shaped track!!
29 December 2018 21:33
https://svnereida.com/blog/4967-day-87-fri-sat-28-29-dec-2018-hove-to-drifting-mainly-w-nearly-made-a-heart-shaped-track

Quote

end of Day 87. We drifted 14 n.ml. DMG over the 24 hr period, measured in a straight line between the two 1900 GMT positions.

 

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If you take lateral seperation into account the delta between Stats and the old guy is now probably around 450 mile. Take say 100 off that for the old guys penalty box that reduces it around 350nm or 2/3 days. If Slats can average >0.5k quicker this is going to be very close. 

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From the GGR live news feed:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR and well done to PIerre-Andre Huglo who just sailed around Cape Horn after 156 days at sea non-stop from France in his beautifully prepared Contessa 32 as a participant of the Longue Route 2018 officiel. rally. He now sails north to France. "  

Without knowing all of the details, it sounds like Pierre sailed from France to Cape Horn quicker than any of the boats in the GGR, in a freaking Contessa 32!  Pretty astonishing if that's the case.

 

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6 hours ago, mowgli said:

counting is difficult it is 708 at the moment :D

3444 - 2736 = 708

Nah. Jack has a secret formula, its more or less 450.

3444 - 2736 - secret_correction = 450

Slats has talked more on the radio than sailing, if he has now new habits he also will make new mistakes.

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1 hour ago, r.finn said:

From the GGR live news feed:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR and well done to PIerre-Andre Huglo who just sailed around Cape Horn after 156 days at sea non-stop from France in his beautifully prepared Contessa 32 as a participant of the Longue Route 2018 officiel. rally. He now sails north to France. "  

Without knowing all of the details, it sounds like Pierre sailed from France to Cape Horn quicker than any of the boats in the GGR, in a freaking Contessa 32!  Pretty astonishing if that's the case.

 

From GGR: Golden Globe Race No JL VDH was 145 but wasted 10 days with film drops and mast damage so could have been 135 days?? maybe??..but a smaller boat like Contessa 32 and S&S 34 are easily faster in many conditions..

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1 hour ago, r.finn said:

From the GGR live news feed:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR and well done to PIerre-Andre Huglo who just sailed around Cape Horn after 156 days at sea non-stop from France in his beautifully prepared Contessa 32 as a participant of the Longue Route 2018 officiel. rally. He now sails north to France. "  

Without knowing all of the details, it sounds like Pierre sailed from France to Cape Horn quicker than any of the boats in the GGR, in a freaking Contessa 32!  Pretty astonishing if that's the case.

Saw that too - and I was going to “reply” to my post somewhere above expressing skepticism that a Contessa 32 could carry supplies for that many months (they’re very small inside).  Impressive!!

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5 hours ago, r.finn said:

From GGR: Golden Globe Race No JL VDH was 145 but wasted 10 days with film drops and mast damage so could have been 135 days?? maybe??..but a smaller boat like Contessa 32 and S&S 34 are easily faster in many conditions..

A smaller, better designed boat.  

Query...how many of the Longue Route boats have decided to make the Indian Ocean or Southern Pacific Ocean their permanent home?  Haven't heard of any.  Don must not have been giving them routing advice.

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6 hours ago, r.finn said:

From GGR: Golden Globe Race No JL VDH was 145 but wasted 10 days with film drops and mast damage so could have been 135 days?? maybe??..but a smaller boat like Contessa 32 and S&S 34 are easily faster in many conditions..

‘A smaller boat are easily faster’

 

1.34 x root LWL in feet anybody??

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12 hours ago, DtM said:

Can "the old guy" serve his penalty by just sailing east when he reaches the area he has to do the penalty?

No he gets it on the end.

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I think I recall something about crossing a certain line of latitude, then ducking back under it for the length of the penalty but only being allowed to recross within 40nm of the original crossing? So he could make up some of the 300 eastward miles potentially. 

Is there actually a prize for getting back first other than escaping the circus? VDH has the victory in my eyes regardless of the line result. Would find it amusing if Slats did catch up enough to pass and then sailed alongside to finish together. 

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“Time penalties allocated to an Entrant will be served in a Penalty Box (TBA in the sailing instructions) On crossing north of 45 degrees North latitude, the Entrant suffering a time penalty must then return south of that latitude (Penalty time starts) and not cross North of it again (within 40 miles of the crossing longitude), until the time penalty has been served. The entrant may then make for the finish line.”

 

https://goldengloberace.com/app/uploads/2018/02/GGR-NOR-EN-050218.pdf

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UKU - Forecast (PWE) for just under 48 hours time. 07:00 Kiwi time on the 4th. Running NE as some of us have suggest in the past should be safer than diving into the unpredictable southern sector. 

Uku's current position at the end of the red track. Divider at 190NM for reference and scale. 

 

image.thumb.png.dd42a821a195058aec96486044f57f28.png

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6 hours ago, littlechay said:

UKU - Forecast (PWE) for just under 48 hours time. 07:00 Kiwi time on the 4th. Running NE as some of us have suggest in the past should be safer than diving into the unpredictable southern sector. 

Uku's current position at the end of the red track. Divider at 190NM for reference and scale. 

 

image.thumb.png.dd42a821a195058aec96486044f57f28.png

Do mean the southern sector of storms/low pressure systems in general are “unpredictable”, or this one in particular (and, if so, why)?  Just trying to understand better.

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1 hour ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Do mean the southern sector of storms/low pressure systems in general are “unpredictable”, or this one in particular (and, if so, why)?  Just trying to understand better.

In the Southern hemisphere yes.  In the northern sector you will have westerly winds,  with a wind backing from NW to SW quite gradually. The sea state will generally be better as the wind is westerly so the waves along with the ground swell are all in the same direction.  You have a wide latitude that the storm track can vary in without causing a major change in conditions.

If the system closes you may have stronger winds in the north as the system will be moving to the East or South of East which adds to the wind strength. 

Conversely in the southern sector the you may experience lower winds (in a closed system)  but the sea state will be a mess.  You'll have the ground swell from the west overlaid with with a decent wind wave from the North,  then Easterly,  then Southerly etc.. Any change in storm track, however small,  will make a big change in what you get;  hence difficult to make a plan. 

All IMO and YMMV etc.  etc.. 

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On 9/24/2018 at 3:30 PM, SCANAS said:

The new build leopard? 

There’s a whole host of boats floating around down there inc Abby Sunderland’s. 

And here it is (Sunderland’s “Wild Eyes”, eight years after being abandoned...just spotted off Western Australia https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2196654383921281&id=1751709878415736

Interesting data point for oceanographers who study ocean currents?

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I do agree with Jack on the distance point.  I got @ 450, but was stated this is measured from two different reporting times, but unless mark sank, it should not be too far off.

The penalty will be taken fairly close to the finish line since Nantes is @ 47 degrees north.  By the time the 'Old Man' crosses 45 he's within 120 NM of the approximate finish line.  With a 40 NM box (longitudinally) he'll need to do maybe one spin (18 * 4.5 = 81 NM).  He will lose some time for without GPS, knowing when you cross 45 will either fantastic timing (for a noon sight during the day and solid dead reckoning, star sighting on a clear night and DR), but still padding the be sure then to sail back across.

Personally, it is a shitting application of a time penalty for boat with no means to be accurate to a high degree.  While big brother can watch down the smallest distance, you are stuck with DR to stay within 40 NM with little information currents about local currents that may impact speed over ground and if there is a storm around that time,  you are forced to stay in one small area and maneuver.  A reasonable approach would be to just apply the time after crossing then if the trailing boat is inside that time, they win.

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1 hour ago, bucc5062 said:

The penalty will be taken fairly close to the finish line since Nantes is @ 47 degrees north.  By the time the 'Old Man' crosses 45 he's within 120 NM of the approximate finish line

...

He will lose some time for without GPS, knowing when you cross 45 will either fantastic timing (for a noon sight during the day and solid dead reckoning, star sighting on a clear night and DR), but still padding the be sure then to sail back across.

If 45 is the original penalty box latitude, "R"O has spoken since. I recall new line to be at 20 degrees because of possible strong winds around 45.
The 'old man' will also be informed when he can turn around for the penalty and woken up after 18 hours.

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1 hour ago, Texcom said:

If 45 is the original penalty box latitude, "R"O has spoken since. I recall new line to be at 20 degrees because of possible strong winds around 45.
The 'old man' will also be informed when he can turn around for the penalty and woken up after 18 hours.

Maybe that rings a bell, but the official NOR has not been updated.  If that is the case, he's Inside 300 miles from the line.  Having Don call the shots on the penalty make him feel like a BMOC even though it smacks in the face of his "Retro" theme.  I doubt Heede would need his help, but his stepping in would make it even a more ridiculous and arbitrary application of a bogus penalty.

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On 1/2/2019 at 12:18 AM, Joakim said:

Slats has been in stealth mode for 28 hours. Will the tracker ever work again? Just when there was a slight possibility for a closer finish.

Tracker back up for Slats.  He “cut open a 12v fan to salvage a magnet from the motor and has now successfully REBOOTED the main YB3i tracker!” - says GGR RO today.

Not bad!  I’d be curious to hear more details.  Mark’s been pretty resourceful (Istvan too, fixing or making a bearing for his wheel steering?) using lots of wood bits to resecure his Aries vane, wedges in his mast collar, and now a bit of “electrical engineering” to reboot his tracker...

 

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On 1/2/2019 at 11:27 PM, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

And here it is (Sunderland’s “Wild Eyes”, eight years after being abandoned...just spotted off Western Australia https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2196654383921281&id=1751709878415736

Interesting data point for oceanographers who study ocean currents?

Getting some press now.

So in 2026 Tomy's timber epoxy Suhali replica surfaces and around 2030 Don is finally found clinging to his Turkish steel Joshua rambling incoherently about being RKJ's illegitimate child.

There is a decade of intertainment.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-03/wild-eyes-find-prompts-emotional-response-from-abby-sunderland/10681704

 

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:27 PM, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

And here it is (Sunderland’s “Wild Eyes”, eight years after being abandoned...just spotted off Western Australia 

Makes you think how many Volvo's, Vendee Globes and record braking tri's have dodged that bullet :wacko:

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1 hour ago, Laser1 said:

Makes you think how many Volvo's, Vendee Globes and record braking tri's have dodged that bullet :wacko:

Or not.  Might want to check to see if bits of HB's foil may be embedded in the hull :o

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2 hours ago, r.finn said:

Slats is now west of rumbline and pointing at Van den Heede's stern, about 900 miles away.  At that heading the funny math is not on Mark's side.  Was it port tack that VdH has concerns about?

From memory, yes.  From the looks of it it may be a long slog on port back towards the Verdes.  A real test of his handy work.

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2 hours ago, Laser1 said:

Makes you think how many Volvo's, Vendee Globes and record braking tri's have dodged that bullet :wacko:

Meanwhile, speaking of boats afloat in the Indian Ocean, some dude in Brooklyn, NYC (I think), who apparently works in marine salvage, has launched an effort to rescue the whiskey and return Gregor’s boat...seriously.  

#whiskeyrescue

Ambitious adventure - hope they succeed:  https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2196758743910845&id=1751709878415736

 #whiskeyrescue rescuers here:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=964420893757367&id=100005683968267

 

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3 hours ago, r.finn said:

Slats is now west of rumbline and pointing at Van den Heede's stern, about 900 miles away.  At that heading the funny math is not on Mark's side.  Was it port tack that VdH has concerns about?

A delta of 630 mile based on the tracker distance to go is now pretty irelevant as they go away from the tracker rhumline. So your delta of 900 mile bow to stern is more accurate. 

The tracker says Slats has reeled in 120 mile on the old guy since funny maths time. So back to the funny maths.

Slats leverage has reduced from 300 to around 250 mile, largely because of easting Heede has made in the last few days. That is not good for Slats.

Slats leverage today compared to Heede when at this same latitude around 10 days ago was only 150 mile. That is even worse news for Slats. However from this point if Slats maintains his current course of 355 degrees he will be sailing around 10/15 degrees higher than Heede did in the same period so there is a prospect that leverage may increase.

What ever way you cut it I would still be chopping around 300 mile off your 900, so make that 600. Then take off 100 for the penalty box to reveal a true delta of around 500 mile. 

When I first did the funny math that true delta was 350 mile so Slats has gone down the toilet 150 mile not caught the old guy up by 120 as shown by the tracker.

The next 10 days are critical for Slats. He has to sail around 10/15 degrees higher than Heede in the same period plus not slow. The former is doable subject to weather, the last bit will be the hard bit with a doldrums exit still to do.

Pendulum has swung in the old guys favour.

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

A delta of 630 mile based on the tracker distance to go is now pretty irelevant as they go away from the tracker rhumline. So your delta of 900 mile bow to stern is more accurate. 

The tracker says Slats has reeled in 120 mile on the old guy since funny maths time. So back to the funny maths.

Slats leverage has reduced from 300 to around 250 mile, largely because of easting Heede has made in the last few days. That is not good for Slats.

Slats leverage today compared to Heede when at this same latitude around 10 days ago was only 150 mile. That is even worse news for Slats. However from this point if Slats maintains his current course of 355 degrees he will be sailing around 10/15 degrees higher than Heede did in the same period so there is a prospect that leverage may increase.

What ever way you cut it I would still be chopping around 300 mile off your 900, so make that 600. Then take off 100 for the penalty box to reveal a true delta of around 500 mile. 

When I first did the funny math that true delta was 350 mile so Slats has gone down the toilet 150 mile not caught the old guy up by 120 as shown by the tracker.

The next 10 days are critical for Slats. He has to sail around 10/15 degrees higher than Heede in the same period plus not slow. The former is doable subject to weather, the last bit will be the hard bit with a doldrums exit still to do.

Pendulum has swung in the old guys favour.

I think he grabbed that Pendulum and tied it onto his mast to hold it up thus not allowing it to swing away from him.

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3 hours ago, littlechay said:

This is from the Expedition Facebook feed. It is slightly off topic but of interest to those that understand that weather models are just models and not always very accurate. :)

Chay that is an interesting read. I too would have put BOM's ACCESS model at top of the tree for that race, #1 boat Alive was navigated by Wouter a Euro and #2 boat WOX navigated by Elizabeth Greenhalgh also a Euro. The interesting is they stuck very close to each other with no more than 5nm DTG seperation with a finish delta of around 15 or so minutes and with Alive leading for most of the race where just after the start had maybe the most lateral seperation that did pay off.  

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17 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Tracker back up for Slats.  He “cut open a 12v fan to salvage a magnet from the motor and has now successfully REBOOTED the main YB3i tracker!” - says GGR RO today.

Not bad!  I’d be curious to hear more details.  Mark’s been pretty resourceful (Istvan too, fixing or making a bearing for his wheel steering?) using lots of wood bits to resecure his Aries vane, wedges in his mast collar, and now a bit of “electrical engineering” to reboot his tracker...

 

I wonder if anyone took a string of pearls with them......

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Chay that is an interesting read. I too would have put BOM's ACCESS model at top of the tree for that race, #1 boat Alive was navigated by Wouter a Euro and #2 boat WOX navigated by Elizabeth Greenhalgh also a Euro. The interesting is they stuck very close to each other with no more than 5nm DTG seperation with a finish delta of around 15 or so minutes and with Alive leading for most of the race where just after the start had maybe the most lateral seperation that did pay off.  

Yes interesting.. look at the graph; very much a much of a muchness for the first 8 hours but then quite a divergence in both amplitude and time, as you would expect. 

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36 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Yes interesting.. look at the graph; very much a much of a muchness for the first 8 hours but then quite a divergence in both amplitude and time, as you would expect. 

I will get off my bum one day and analyse the divergence in models against their actual decisions on the race course. My quick guess is that even with model divergence they were reluctant to part company laterally. 

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36 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Thanks Leo I got it from on board first hand not long after they docked. I'm super happy for the guy as he fully deserves it from before and from after his VOR Cargados Carajos career defining speedbump.  

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