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Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018


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". Replying to Panoramix:    #1285 Posted June 6 "Very cool. Afte

They've just mounted a bronze plaque on the Wall of History, in the Victoria inner harbour, just across from the Provincial Legislature.  This is just above the walkway where several months ago they n

Jeanne has crossed her outbound track!  I know that she wants to cross her Victoria starting line, but as far as I'm concerned -- she's done it!  Congratulations to an inspiring human being!

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While pilot charts are useful for strategic guidance, remember that no plan survives contact with the enemy -- I mean weather.  Sometimes we have a route in mind and then, when halfway there, we discover that "you can't get there from here."  So we sail where we can get to, and perhaps spend some time becalmed, waiting for *any* wind.  Here are WX charts from my 2008 trip from Hawaii to San Francisco, and a Pilot chart for Aug 15.  Compared to the WX charts, there's not much value to the pilot chart.

875848634_pilotaug15.thumb.jpg.f6e22270ad526880a12743ce37e26099.jpg

WX leaving Hawaii:

035-Aug-7-Weather_jpg.jpg

WX four days later (red X is our position):

230-Aug-11_jpg.jpg

Four days after that:

355-Aug-15-Weather_jpg.jpg

 

:

 

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20 hours ago, valis said:

On the rhumline the prevailing southern trades will be on her nose, or at least far forward.  Here's a pilot chart for November, when she will be in that region.  Also, here's Jefe's route, showing how he dealt with the southern trades.

map.png

pilot nov.jpg

IIRC (EL Jefe's Blog seems to be gone), one reason for his track west of Easter Island was the "rules" surrounding an official circumnavigation, including the equator crossings and a minimum distance.  Some of the westing beyond Easter Island was to add enough mileage to his planned track to meet that minimum distance.  

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I agree that pilot charts are of most use for strategic planning, perhaps with the exception of trade wind zones where the wind directions and strengths are very consistent. Pilot chart data in mid-latitude locations reflect the impact of depressions moving through - hence winds from all directions are common. The pattern of depression movements is closely linked to jet stream conditions at any given time so can get very different conditions than the pilot chart would suggest. Once you get far enough south (or north) the winds become more reliably from the west, as shown in the map in the previous post, but depressions still mess with the long-term data on the pilot charts.

One condition that those going north to south like Jeanne have to deal with is the squash zones that develop as depressions in the 40s primarily move past the massive, largely stationary highs (really high like 1035 mb) that lie to the north. We found this to our chagrin when going from Mangareva in SE French Polynesia. Had 55 knots and large waves that caused a knockdown. Spent some time with Peter Smith the guy who invented the Rocna anchor. He was knocked down 180° going from the Falklands to Cape Town in similar conditions.

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Perhaps someone else could back me up on this or not. I think for passage planning I am basically a strategic thinker (pilot charts) and not a tactical one (weather). Are others the same?  I don't choose to leave on a bad forecast e.g. for crossing the Gulf Stream but I do choose the most favourable time of the year. Once you start though the weather you get is just something you deal with. At the speeds that most of the boats that we have can do, you are not able to steer around weather events that might be hundreds of miles across. There are exceptions though. We were told by various Kiwis that when you want to make the passage from Tonga to NZ you wait until a depression is approaching and the head out into it. The (sound) logic is that a depression near Tonga will not be as bad as one near NZ so you can pick your poison. Being the chickens we are, we sailed to Brisbane for cyclone season and took an airplane for  a month of backpacking in NZ, an absolutely wonderful place btw. We went from Indonesia to South Africa in November because that month has the fewest tropical storms (all months get them in that part of the world) with 2 every 3 years plus there had never been a full cyclone that month. We got a Category 3 cyclone so the pilot charts and climate data are certainly not infallible, nor pretend to be. We were not affected by Cyclone Anais but had to leave Mauritius sooner than we would have liked to because of its approach.

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I'm a bit of both with a strong leaning to tactical.

I'm very good at being a chicken and waiting till the forecast is good, AND model agreement is reasonable. During passages I'm really monitoring GRIBS and sometimes wfaxes to make sure things don't change.

We pick shorter passages when possible to minimize the risk of being clobbered. For example one typical route from the tropics to Australia is via New Caledonia. That's about 700 n.m. Long enough for a front or a low to move up the coast from further south and hit you en-route. We chose a more northern route of Vanuatu - Chesterfield Reef - Bundaberg. Both legs were around 400-450 n.m. Short enough we could pick a safer window to get there in one piece.

Same idea with getting to South Africa. The southern route via Reunion sucks because the last passage is 1100 n.m. and you will get hit by a low coming along the bottom of S.Africa. Just like getting to NZ. We chose a more roundabout route via the Northern Indian Ocean (Sri Lanka/ Maldives/ Chagos/ Seychelles/Comores/Madagascar/Mozambique). In that way we had options for bail out points along the Mozambique coast. Were very happy when a SW blow came and we were tucked behind an island. Would not have wanted to be in the Agluhas current with 30 knots blowing against it. 

On a passage from the Cook island to Tonga, we could see a front coming on GRIBs, with an active frontal shift. So we gybed 2 days in advance and went way off the rhumb line to get north. When the shift came, we tacked over and had a nice reach into Tonga. If we had just accepted what was coming and stayed on the rhumb line we would have had to beat the last 150-200 miles.

Strategic thinking is going to have to change too. My wife did a sailing mag story about changes in weather patterns. Watch the shoulder seasons! Meteorologists said they were getting harder to predict and when the winter season started might be coming sooner than historical knowledge suggested. This included Bob McDavitt - http://www.metbob.com/ who is a real guru of S.Pacific weather.  When we were in the Maldives they said the monsoonal shift was usually within a 7 day window but it had been coming 2 weeks early for some years.

Looping back to the beginning - the pilot charts might be getting more inaccurate too.

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46 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

We were told by various Kiwis that when you want to make the passage from Tonga to NZ you wait until a depression is approaching and the head out into it. The (sound) logic is that a depression near Tonga will not be as bad as one near NZ so you can pick your poison.

I don't want to digress too much, but that's not a rule I would take as gospel. These days weather forecasts give a feel for the shape of big features out beyond two weeks. Of course, they are always wrong in detail at that range. Still, they're good enough that, strategically, one can choose a season and then start looking for patterns in the long range forecasts. On the passage from the islands to New Zealand if your timing is flexible, you might plan to head South Novemberish. You don't really need the pilot charts to get that much and once you've gotten there you can start using model data. Now, what you choose to head out into will depend on lots of things; can you motor through a the high, what speeds are practical, do you have good weather forecasts underway and so on. I'm made that passage a few times and read weather for many folks on it and the number of fronts typically varies between zero and two. A fast boat with good weather info and time can choose to do that passage with no fronts most seasons. I found a nice window one year from New Cal that let me take a day and a night at Norfolk and still get to NZ without a front. Taking a single front somewhere N of 30S can work nicely sometimes.  On the other hand, if you're going to head out on a slow sail boat without a motor or radio the odds of having decent weather when you get the approaches of NZ might be improved by departing the islands as a front goes through.

I've got a complete set of pilot chart atlases. They are lovely and I've cherished them over the years. However, it's been a long time since I used them for weather planning per se.

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I'm no expert; my experience is mostly the same Hawaii and back passages, repeated many times.  I'm familiar with the summer patterns surrounding the Pacific High, and the rest of the Pacific is from watching friends or reading.  I've not studied the Atlantic patterns beyond glancing at the pilot charts and Cornell's World Cruising Routes.

So I usually sail to a race schedule, and any strategic calls involve optimizing the likely pain/gain when routing beyond the reliable forecasts, and watching how the low-pressure systems coming up from the southeast evolve (we race in hurricane season.)  When leaving Hawaii for home, I look for approaching hurricanes and the state of the tradewinds.  I might delay our departure by a week, waiting for better conditions.  Pilot charts aren't used, but I do know what to generally expect.

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40 minutes ago, valis said:

I'm no expert; my experience is mostly the same Hawaii and back passages, repeated many times.  I'm familiar with the summer patterns surrounding the Pacific High, and the rest of the Pacific is from watching friends or reading.  I've not studied the Atlantic patterns beyond glancing at the pilot charts and Cornell's World Cruising Routes.

So I usually sail to a race schedule, and any strategic calls involve optimizing the likely pain/gain when routing beyond the reliable forecasts, and watching how the low-pressure systems coming up from the southeast evolve (we race in hurricane season.)  When leaving Hawaii for home, I look for approaching hurricanes and the state of the tradewinds.  I might delay our departure by a week, waiting for better conditions.  Pilot charts aren't used, but I do know what to generally expect.

Effectively you are your own pilot chart for this junk of ocean for a particular time of year. You start with an understanding of the overall patterns and then look at the particulars of that particular time.

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2 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

A question for Zonker and anyone else who might know, are pilot charts fixed in stone or are they updated, say every ten years to reflect changing climate patterns?

https://msi.nga.mil/NGAPortal/MSI.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=msi_portal_page_62&pubCode=0003

" Pilot Charts depict averages in prevailing winds and currents, air and sea temperatures, wave heights, ice limits, visibility, barometric pressure, and weather conditions at different times of the year. The information used to compile these averages was obtained from oceanographic and meteorologic observations over many decades during the late 18th and 19th centuries.

The Atlas of Pilot Charts set is comprised of five volumes, each covering a specific geographic region. Each volume is an atlas of twelve pilot charts, each depicting the observed conditions for a particular month of any given year.

The charts are intended to aid the navigator in selecting the fastest and safest routes with regards to the expected weather and ocean conditions. The charts are not intended to be used for navigation."

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3 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Once you start though the weather you get is just something you deal with. At the speeds that most of the boats that we have can do, you are not able to steer around weather events that might be hundreds of miles across. There are exceptions though.

Boat speed helps!  Even so, Jeanne managed to avoid the worst at Cape Mendocino by getting 250 miles offshore (longitude) in only ~500 nm. of latitude, with her 24 hour average speed peaking at 6.5 knots (~156 nm. per day for two days).  At that speed or better, with satellite weather data and forecasts now pretty good for at least a few days (up to a week with caveats), one can actively choose between sailing options.

I've likely heard of pilot charts before and wonder if they evolved from the historic work of Matthew Fontaine Maury, who's story I remember from somewhere:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Fontaine_Maury

Quote

Matthew Fontaine Maury (January 14, 1806 – February 1, 1873) was an American astronomer, United States Navy officer, historian, oceanographer, meteorologist, cartographer, author, geologist, and educator.

He was nicknamed "Pathfinder of the Seas" and "Father of Modern Oceanography and Naval Meteorology" and later, "Scientist of the Seas" for his extensive works in his books, especially The Physical Geography of the Sea(1855), the first such extensive and comprehensive book on oceanography to be published. Maury made many important new contributions to charting winds and ocean currents, including ocean lanes for passing ships at sea.

In 1825, at 19, Maury obtained, through US Representative Sam Houston, a midshipman's warrant in the United States Navy.[1] As a midshipman on board the frigate USS Brandywine, he almost immediately began to study the seas and record methods of navigation. When a leg injury left him unfit for sea duty, Maury devoted his time to the study of navigation, meteorology, winds, and currents. He became Superintendent of the United States Naval Observatory and head of the Depot of Charts and Instruments. There, Maury studied thousands of ships' logs and charts. He published the Wind and Current Chart of the North Atlantic Ocean, which showed sailors how to use the ocean's currents and winds to their advantage, drastically reducing the length of ocean voyages. Maury's uniform system of recording oceanographic data was adopted by navies and merchant marines around the world and was used to develop charts for all the major trade routes.

 

Time for an updated, techy version of collecting and displaying historical weather patterns, esp. recent history.  If Windy could replay weather data for any year/date in the past decade (or more)... then average and aggregate it by month for selected years, and present it as they do forecast data now...  THAT would be super useful these days!  Far superior to "averages was obtained from oceanographic and meteorologic observations over many decades during the late 18th and 19th centuries".

Matthew Fontaine Maury would be delighted with the tools and data we have now.

P.S.  Found here: https://www.loc.gov/resource/g9111p.ct009519/

Pilot chart of the North Atlantic, 1857 - contributor: Matthew Fontaine Maury, with 5 degree "roses" of some sort:

pilot_chart_rose_Maury.thumb.jpg.ec01f9aaf3e1a581f7078d12cb62995f.jpg

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By boat speed I meant the sort of numbers that things like Open 60s and the like are able to do, well into two digits and even 20+. Jeanne is doing very well at 6.5 knots for two days but that is still pretty slow.

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2 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

  If Windy could replay weather data for any year/date in the past decade (or more)... then average and aggregate it by month for selected years, and present it as they do forecast data now...  THAT would be super useful these days! 

Because climate is a topic of interest the data you'd need is freely available eg:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nomads/data-products

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/climate-forecast-system-version2-cfsv2

I'm not sure how well the streamline format that Windy uses would work with averaged data. The pilot chart wind roses have the advantage that they don't smear out the details. Maybe that's just me. I prefer wind arrows to streamlines. For me the arrows convey more data more precisely in less space than the streamlines.

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1 hour ago, weightless said:

I'm not sure how well the streamline format that Windy uses would work with averaged data. The pilot chart wind roses have the advantage that they don't smear out the details. Maybe that's just me. I prefer wind arrows to streamlines. For me the arrows convey more data more precisely in less space than the streamlines.

Animated streamlines are a local/client/browser interpretation of GRIB files, so weighted-average data delivered as a GRIB file would look exactly as it does now for forecast data.  Except the timeline on the bottom would allow choice of month instead of day/time - or rather, in addition to day/future (forecast) or any archived date/time (past), which would be the detailed basis for the averaged data.  Any given month could have "averaged" summary data broken down into ranked percentiles, like the wind rose arrows...

For me, the Windy-style gradient graphic presentation is immediately accessible to the untrained eye.  The many layers provide detail, along with the vast number of data points in modern data sets compared to collection methods of yore.  Archived historical GRIB data is a logical extension to Windy's forecast UI features, which are superlative.

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3 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

so weighted-average data delivered as a GRIB file would look exactly as it does now for forecast data.

Sure, but a problem is that you lose information about the distribution when you display the data that way. Per chart, the pilot charts show much more about the data than the Windy charts can. Anyway, OT enough that I'll leave it at that.

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No, I don't think Pilot charts are updated. Yes, of course they started with Maury.

I'm not sure how many years the GRIB file archives go back. Probably a few decades at most.

 

Jimmy Cornell's version is more up to date, but historical timeline is much, much smaller than the pilot charts. More accurate? I have no idea.

https://www.cruisingworld.com/jimmy-cornell-talks-about-his-ocean-atlas

CW: Can you explain how you arrive at the wind averages for a particular month and how to read the arrows, or wind roses?

J.C.: The wind and current data was obtained from observations made by a network of meteorological satellites since 1987 [book published in 2011 so ~24 years of data]. Daily samples of the average conditions measured across the globe using various remote sensing techniques were averaged and collated by a computer program. The resulting data is displayed onto the underlying maps in wind-rose form.

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1700 Monday, Jeanne's position: 30.53,-123.93, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 190 degrees

Has anyone ever been near enough to see this place, or heard of it?  "Ile de Clipperton", ~300 nm. E of her rhumbline, just south of the line of squalls.
Google map, satellite view only, no name:  10.30 lat,-109 point 22 long (appears as "-109dogballs"?  WTF - is someone being funny?)

Found on Windy: https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-25-00,10.302,-109.216,15

  • 1,380 nm. W of Costa Rica, 
  • 670 nm. WSW of Acapulco

Obstacles ahead:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=18.1&lon=-104.5&wxstn=0&satellite=1&hur=1

Wunderground1015a.thumb.jpg.dae70d40f02d605ee2c699723fa0d9d7.jpg

 

47 minutes ago, weightless said:

1 Jan 1979 to the present with CFS & CFS v 2

Jan 1979 is four decades!  That's plenty to make it worthwhile.  A massive treasure of data.

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1 hour ago, ProaSailor said:

Has anyone ever been near enough to see this place, or heard of it?  "Ile de Clipperton", ~300 nm. E of her rhumbline, just south of the line of squalls.
Google map, satellite view only, no name:  10.30 lat,-109 point 22 long (appears as "-109dogballs"? 

Isn't that the dinosaur zoo island?

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1 hour ago, ProaSailor said:

1700 Monday, Jeanne's position: 30.53,-123.93, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 190 degrees

Has anyone ever been near enough to see this place, or heard of it?  "Ile de Clipperton", ~300 nm. E of her rhumbline, just south of the line of squalls.
Google map, satellite view only, no name:  10.30 lat,-109 point 22 long (appears as "-109dogballs"?  WTF - is someone being funny?)

 

The Ed got tired of Tom Ray talking about his twenty-two caliber rifle so when you type the numbers you get dogballs. dogballs

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4 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

0800 Monday, Position: 29.582,-124.558, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 233 degrees - That's 78 degrees off her current rhumbline heading of 155.

tracker1016a.thumb.jpg.48f861a10ea8602cd518ecfd4cf7f4fc.jpg

Windy1016a.thumb.jpg.4f0bf2325633e8f75dad1269e9f06015.jpg

Next weekend:

Windy1016b.thumb.jpg.1c35fe0ea93e5b7fa4b8005d396bcb64.jpg

This would be a great time to be able to listen in on her routing/WX advice. It seems that some strong

decisions need to be made now to miss that brewing cyclone. Yes, most of those head N/NE this time

of year but someone tuned in to the 500mb charts might show us what the steering forces are likely

to be. Slow down?, Keep heading SW? What to do and why?

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5 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

0800 Monday Tuesday, Position: 29.582,-124.558, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 233 degrees

Oops!  Make that Tuesday...  Update: 1300 Tuesday, Position: 29.304,-124.794, Speed: 1.9 knots, Heading: 183 degrees

Seems to be sailing a deeper angle (slower, DDW) than the wind appears to allow (port tack on that rhumbline).

Windy1016c.thumb.jpg.6155b503a7937a76939dd4b807509589.jpg

VMG to Cape Horn "Approach Waypoint" ('CHAWp' at -56,-76) is the cosine of the difference in angle between current heading and heading to 'CHAWp' times her current velocity.  Pedantic, I know... but the cosine of 78 degrees is 0.208 or 20% of velocity toward the Horn and 80% to changing lanes (going sideways).

cosine.png.7a1ed2a7c468a7b58f5b85e54eca75d9.png

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I still don't think she wants to sail the rhumbline to Cape Horn.  She told me she was aiming to cross the ITCZ around 130 deg W (the ITCZ in the east Pacific is roughly between 10 deg N and the equator), and this seems like a reasonable goal for now.  Once she gets closer she can adjust for conditions.  This also puts her further away from the likely hurricane tracks, although the hurricane remnants can scramble the wind patterns for quite a distance.  Here's my qtVIM routing for the next seven days, using 130 deg W, 10 deg N as the goal.  The routing stops when the GRIB runs out (the WX shown is about 7-1/2 days from now).

10-16-18 autoroute.jpg

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The Windy Rain layer is interesting to watch (click 'Play' button at lower left) over the ten day forecast period; Jeanne is ~1,200 nm. away from the edge of the zone at 10N lat.:
https://www.windy.com/distance?rain,13.689,-112.192,5

I would be looking for the fastest way to sail through this (near my rhumbline), spots where wind from both sides meet instead of gaps where there is no wind at all.

Windy1016d.thumb.jpg.48782e65784e591ac92df1cd1123551d.jpg

Windy1016e.thumb.jpg.976827be36de091009d2e38eb14d8df5.jpg

https://www.windy.com/distance?13.005,-100.986,5

Windy1016f.thumb.jpg.d6c5565cf99566f1ecebdc75b280cc1f.jpg

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2 hours ago, Zonker said:

Wow - 130 deg is quite far west.

She's already around 125 deg W, but the more I stare at the gribs and pilot charts, the less confident I become that I know where Jeanne should point the boat.  130W isn't a bad crossing point if you are headed to the Marquesas and rest of the south Pacific.  From 130, making your way back east towards Cape Horn isn't so obvious.  Neither is it from 120 or 110, as the trades seem to be on your nose wherever you start from.  Also, the South Pacific High seems to be vary chaotic, more so than the North Pacific High in the equivalent season.  Still, I assume that she will be staying west of the coastal southerlies, standing off the coast by 1000 miles until she gets around 30 degrees south.  But I've been wrong before.

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Isn't that the dinosaur zoo island?

No, Clipperton is an atoll. Not much land. Maybe you're thinking of Isla Cocos?

Anyway I bet she's thinking of staying away from those hurricanes off Mexico. Typically they are all over by November 1st BUT they are often present right up to Halloween.

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The ITCZ is at its widest in the world in the eastern Pacific, sort of triangle shaped with its base on the coast of Panama and extending most of the way to Ecuador. it is much narrower, sort of normal iTCZ band at the meridian she is aiming for. You also get the bonus of staying away (likely) from that hurricane. You pay for money and take your choice with these things. Her decisions seem sensible to me.

I would not read too much into her course at any given moment, she might just be doing something (reefing/unreefing, mainntance on her vane (she does have a vane I assume), etc). If you get the same course over a two or three hour period it would mean  more.

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She has apparently been drifting for ~3 hours?  Headings at the tail of this track are 281, 284 and finally 287 degrees.  Going backwards.

At 6.5 knots, she would make the ~1200 miles to the ITCZ in eight days but at this rate now, there isn't much point in looking too far ahead at the weather.  At a four knot average (or less?) toward the Horn, the "event window" for route planning becomes very short, since anything 1200 miles away will change long before you get there.  Cosine(238 - 155) = 12% of boat velocity toward the Horn, 88% sideways.

tracker1017a.thumb.png.43e20ff48b8c9291627028790a5a339b.png

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Having spent considerable time wandering between the wind roses of the Pacific Pilot Charts, I can say that while they are reasonably accurate, they are easily misinterpreted. They are statistical, of course. Good to remember that they give zero indication of which way the wind will actually blow. Like stock market history chart..."Past performance is no indication of future results."

Worse yet, as Jeanne is experiencing first hand, one can spend in inordinate amount of time going either the wrong way or going nowhere at all. A few days speeding along in the prevailing breeze followed by a few days of wandering in the other-than-prevailing conditions.

Plus, all those short non-prevailing wind arrows often add up to a significant percentage compared to the one lovely long prevailing arrow.

That said, I wonder about the wisdom of her course. I stick much closer to the rhumb line or traditional route.

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Once again, I'll armchair quarterback and question the timing of her launch. Why leave so late in the hopes of nailing the timing around the southern continent(s) when doing so adds so much uncertainty to the rate of progress? I'd sooner leave early in good weather at the start and then, if I have to, slow things down to nail the timing later on.

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19 minutes ago, IStream said:

Once again, I'll armchair quarterback and question the timing of her launch. Why leave so late in the hopes of nailing the timing around the southern continent(s) when doing so adds so much uncertainty to the rate of progress? I'd sooner leave early in good weather at the start and then, if I have to, slow things down to nail the timing later on.

Factors she has to consider are also food and fuel, as well as the NPAC hurricane season.  Leaving earlier makes both of these worse.  And I don't think that there's any "nailing the timing", other than picking the right month or two for the southern capes.  But for all I know, she may have chosen her starting date because that's what worked for her the last time she circumnavigated (of course that didn't work so well a couple of years ago).

It's good to see her moving south again.  Perhaps she was fixing something.

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31 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

I don’t thinks she’s in a race, is she? Is there a “days” she’s trying to beat?

I think it's "years" she's trying to beat - wants to be the oldest person to do it - she's already got the oldest woman record.

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3 hours ago, Raz'r said:

I don’t thinks she’s in a race, is she? Is there a “days” she’s trying to beat?

It's not a scenic tour either.  At her current heading (200 degrees, 45 degrees from the rhumbline) and speed (3.9 knots), it will take 86 days (January 11) to reach that Cape Horn "Approach Waypoint" (-56,-76).  Cosine(45) * 3.9 knots = 2.76 knots toward that waypoint, or ~71% of boat speed.

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2 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

It's not a scenic tour either.  At her current heading (200 degrees, 45 degrees from the rhumbline) and speed (3.9 knots), it will take 86 days (January 11) to reach that Cape Horn "Approach Waypoint" (-56,-76).  Cosine(45) * 3.9 knots = 2.76 knots toward that waypoint, or ~71% of boat speed.

I think you shouldn't extrapolate too much from her present heading.  She's going to zig and zag as the wind changes, and I'm sure there will be many days where she sails at good speed directly towards her mark.

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I perfectly understand being forced to tack but she seems to be favoring a dead-downwind style the last few days, which is slow in 10 knots of wind, with headings all over the place except towards the mark.  I got very spoiled thirty years ago playing with Dick Newick's 50' trimaran Moxie - an entirely different animal - and it's difficult to adjust to the far slower performance expectations of Jeanne's monohull.  It weighs twice as much and is substantially shorter LWL (32' vs. ~46'?) , though has surprisingly similar sail area.  Ah, well...  I'll try to shut up for a few days and just see what happens.  Cheers.

Windy1017a.jpg.7cd5b5e855e28945f6f1e3bb06fea12c.jpg

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Just now, SloopJonB said:

The bottom line here is - she knows what she's doing.

With her level of experience offshore I would be very hesitant to second guess her - on anything.

I agree, I'm just puzzled is all. I'm sure she's got her reasons and I'm sure they're good ones. Forgotten more than I'll ever know and all that...

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2 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

The bottom line here is - she knows what she's doing.

With her level of experience offshore I would be very hesitant to second guess her - on anything.

yep

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3 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

I perfectly understand being forced to tack but she seems to be favoring a dead-downwind style the last few days, which is slow in 10 knots of wind, with headings all over the place except towards the mark.  I got very spoiled thirty years ago playing with Dick Newick's 50' trimaran Moxie - an entirely different animal - and it's difficult to adjust to the far slower performance expectations of Jeanne's monohull.  It weighs twice as much and is substantially shorter LWL (32' vs. ~46'?) , though has surprisingly similar sail area.  Ah, well...  I'll try to shut up for a few days and just see what happens.  Cheers.

Windy1017a.jpg.7cd5b5e855e28945f6f1e3bb06fea12c.jpg

When we did a simple transpacific, we ended up 300+ nautical miles NORTH of the rhumbline. And we didn't go far enough. 

Rhumbline while shorter, was slower.

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blog: Day14 Tues-Wed 16-17th October 2018 Solar panels' power input doubled!
By Jeanne Socrates , on 17 October 2018 20:23

Quote

By ten days' time, when a nasty system will possibly be threatening Cabo San Lucas, we should be getting close to 10N, 130W.

 

1600 PDT Wednesday - Position: 27.833,-125.775 - Speed: 3.9 knots - Heading: 187

Distance to 10N, 130W: ~1095 nm. at bearing 193.  Thirty-nine degrees to starboard of rhumbline.  Cosine(193 - 154) = 78% of boat speed toward The Horn, 22% toward her ITCZ target WP.   (at heading 187...  84% toward The Horn)

Windy1017b.thumb.jpg.3f4fbfc4050836894d4f7761021d0f49.jpg

242 nm. further to Horn Wp than rhumbline:

Windy1017c.jpg.198e8f8669d2fe90d9c15291fd007fe5.jpg

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45 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

When we did a simple transpacific, we ended up 300+ nautical miles NORTH of the rhumbline. And we didn't go far enough. 

Rhumbline while shorter, was slower.

Sounds much like driving in the city. :D

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6 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

It's not a scenic tour either.  At her current heading (200 degrees, 45 degrees from the rhumbline) and speed (3.9 knots), it will take 86 days (January 11) to reach that Cape Horn "Approach Waypoint" (-56,-76).  Cosine(45) * 3.9 knots = 2.76 knots toward that waypoint, or ~71% of boat speed.

Webb Chiles’ approach is interesting.  He waits for a good weather window to leave, leaves, has no wx info on board.  Deals with what comes.  No cosines required.  It’s taken him very, very far indeed.

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I also wonder what has happened with her latest tracker positions, but based on the time difference and the lat/lon difference, she was averaging around 5.4 kts to the SSW.  I think the indicated "-1.9 kt" speed and  "-1 degree" are more bogus reports caused by some conflict between her tracker and her iridium blog updates. 

As for her not sailing hot wind angles, remember that she likes to pole out her genoa, with the main out to the other side, which limits her downwind angles pretty severely.  This configuration is wonderfully stable and forgiving (I use it a lot when not racing, and when the wind is strong enough to push me to the steep part of my hull-speed curve it's not a bad racing setup either.)  Twin headsails are even better for deep downwind work, and much more stable than a spinnaker, but I don't know if she is rigged for this.  She's not pushing for the best possible speed -- it's probably more of a "slow and steady, and don't break stuff" approach.

I also see from her recent blog entry that the earlier jog in her route was caused by getting spun and backed while she was sleeping.  I think she has an "aux rudder" style of windvane, which is probably less able to steer her boat back on course than a Monitor-style servo pendulum.  An off-course or wind-angle alarm might have been a good thing for her to have set up.

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We have friends on a HR 39 that sailed from Ecuador (where we still are) to Easter Island over the last two weeks.

Easy sail, port tack the whole way in 8-15 knots. They are waiting for a window to depart for the southern Chilean

coast - and that is much more difficult this spring time of year - even from that far west. Nasty disturbances and

headwinds have been the norm for the past two months we have been watching.

She needs to be west and hope to get south of 40 deg S before getting nailed by something unpleasant.

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14 minutes ago, oysterhead said:

We have friends on a HR 39 that sailed from Ecuador (where we still are) to Easter Island over the last two weeks.

That's ~2,174 nm. / 14 = 155 nm./day = 6.5 knot average, port tack the whole way, much of it a beam to broad reach.  That's what I'm talking about !

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Here's what I just posted on Jeanne's facebook page:

Jeanne continues to make good progress south. As she mentioned on her blog, she is no longer aiming to cross the ITCZ at 130W longitude, but instead is shooting for a crossing a little east of that, where the region is narrower. You can see the contrary winds she will be encountering south of the equator. This will be a challenge, but I suspect when she hits these (and if they don't shift by then), she will be sailing to the southwest for a while.

You can see some tropical storm and hurricane activity on the chart, but neither Hurricane Willa or TS Vicente will have much effect on Jeanne. Even the associated waves will have diminished to virtually nothing by the time they would be reaching her. There is a low-pressure system brewing (the yellow "X"), and NOAA gives it a 20% chance of developing into a larger system. Even this is probably too far away to affect Jeanne, but it will probably increase the amount of rain and thunderstorm activity as she passes through the ITCZ.

Jeanne was having some difficulty getting a usable image from the GOES weather satellites, which she planned on using to see the weather activity in the ITCZ. She and I traded some emails and we were able to figure out a way to get what she needs. These are fairly large image files, and would have been too big for practical download over ham radio or marine SSB radio email. Fortunately, she can also get email with her Iridium satphone (thanks to Global Marine Networks, good folks who I have used myself.)665197481_10-22-18.thumb.jpg.4c97ea6762e5b237a3f338eabc6a30dc.jpg

 

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Speaking of GOES satellite images, has anyone recently downloaded these from saildocs.com?  I tried, and got a horribly compressed image, with what looks like a halftone screen applied (this is a jpeg, but the original saildocs file was a .tif, 167 kBytes in size  (I can't paste .tif's here):

2018444155_evpn10saildocs.jpg.3eef4fae0f1ec7a5eb45c2c4a5921968.jpg

There's a lot of obscured detail, and it seems to me that the compression could be better applied.

Here's a similar image off the NOAA server, only 81 kBytes:

evpn10 saildocs.tif

evpz11 noaa.jpg

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41 minutes ago, toddster said:

Looks like the format for weatherfax transmission? Maybe somebody uploaded the wrong file.  

I also think this is probably wfax halftone screening.  But compressing this screening (using either TIFF or JPEG) makes things worse, not better.  I just got the latest image from saildocs and it's the same thing, so this wasn't a one-time issue.

NOAA has recently changed some of their sat image locations, so a lot of links are broken.  Perhaps this is related?

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Here's an interesting chart I found on a U.S. Navy website: https://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/pubref/References/GUIDE/chap2/ch2ap.htm

fig205.jpg

These are similar to pilot charts, but done in streamline fashion.  For what it's worth, the chart was done in 1975.  And obviously any particular day's wind may look quite different.  Compare the above chart with today's conditions (below).  Note the big low-pressure system due north of Hawaii, at 40 deg N.  The wind there is rotating CCW, while the streamline chart  shows a CW-rotation high pressure region.  South of the equator it's a fair match -- for now.

streamline.thumb.jpg.dea790db7fe672dcf99652acaad84768.jpg

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1 hour ago, valis said:

Here's an interesting chart I found on a U.S. Navy website: https://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/pubref/References/GUIDE/chap2/ch2ap.htm

fig205.jpg

These are similar to pilot charts, but done in streamline fashion.  For what it's worth, the chart was done in 1975.  And obviously any particular day's wind may look quite different.

This image?

fig205.jpg.6c1a8441fad811e2939d6d9d33ad5027.jpg

P.S.  I posted this because using Chrome browser, the image appears broken in @valis post.  Not the case using MS 'Edge' browser...  A certificate problem on the .mil web site.

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53 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

This image?

fig205.jpg.6c1a8441fad811e2939d6d9d33ad5027.jpg

P.S.  I posted this because using Chrome browser, the image appears broken in @valis post.  Not the case using MS 'Edge' browser...  A certificate problem on the .mil web site.

Yes, that's the image.  I'm using Chrome here and the image displays fine (all of them).  Strange...

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RE: updating pilot charts with gribs. AFAIK When Comanche broke the North Atlantic record Stan Honey routed Comanche with historical data to identify lows they could catch all the way over the N Atlantic. This allowed them to identify the low forming a few days in advance and go for the record. My point being... apart from cruisers is there much point to averaged gribs for month? Commercial users tend to go for hindcasting AFAIK, which is kind of the same thing... but not more for defining operational limits.  http://www.oceanweather.com/research/HindcastApproach.html

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On 10/23/2018 at 4:25 PM, N1772 said:

RE: updating pilot charts with gribs. AFAIK When Comanche broke the North Atlantic record Stan Honey routed Comanche with historical data to identify lows they could catch all the way over the N Atlantic. This allowed them to identify the low forming a few days in advance and go for the record. My point being... apart from cruisers is there much point to averaged gribs for month? Commercial users tend to go for hindcasting AFAIK, which is kind of the same thing... but not more for defining operational limits.  http://www.oceanweather.com/research/HindcastApproach.html

They're for strategy, not tactics.  Approximately when to go and general route.  Details determined by short term forecasts and updated at sea.

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At 1700 PDT Thursday, Jeanne is ~40 nm. from her target of 10N,130W.  Position: 10.638,-129.722, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 196 degrees.  The rhumbline to -56,-76 is at bearing 152 degrees and runs directly through Easter Island.

Windy1025a.thumb.jpg.e3a9b8f5cbff61d29668013768b12639.jpg

 

Those wind holes at the ITCZ move so fast that she probably has few options for choosing a "gate" and will have to deal with whatever is happening when she gets there.  Or it gets to her (tomorrow morning, below):

Windy1025b.thumb.jpg.f700793b47ca0909d1ddaf24c2f9aa04.jpg

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She's in a wind hole now!  She may be able to sail SW tomorrow morning, but it's going to be light air forward of the beam.  I realize that Cape Horn is to the SE, but first she has to get out of the ITCZ, and SW is the only direction she will have open to her.

1616215901_10-26-18a.thumb.jpg.0677ff9622011c9a0fdcb186b525f8de.jpg1731391750_10-26-18b.thumb.jpg.7c5b858e67f5e178110be907fc9b19ba.jpg

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The ITCZ is hell unless one can motor thru it. Which I guess she cannot. My tour of Micronesia taught me all I ever want to know. A few days of light stuff. A few days of glass. Punctuated by horrendous squalls. There is no good point of sail. As one creeps nears the edge the trades blow you back in. Did I mention the eddies in the equatorial countercurrent? A sailor’s best hope is some huge squall line takes pity and ejects the ship out the preferred side. Fun stuff.

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Yes, she got her genset going.  She mentions it in her blog.  I've only heard friends talk about their time in the ITCZ (and read about it), but the thunderstorms and squalls can be nasty.  Here's windy.com showing rain and thunderstorms near Nereida:

1312418635_10-26-18c.thumb.jpg.ccd5583cc08f95c2a1ebb1c57a69f2e7.jpg

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Yup. Exactly what I meant in #165 above. One pleasant  morning, after painfully gaining ground towards Hawaii for a few days, a couple of gentle looking squalls approached. Reefed down. A minute later whamo! Spent the next 6 hours at tunnel-vision warp speed (SC50) under 2nd reefed main headed straight for New Zealand. Unwinding days of progress. Then nothing. Gave up. Sailed 3 days back to Majuro. Fun stuff that ITCZ.

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blog: Day23 Thurs-Fri 25-26 October 2018 Arrive at 10N - ITCZ entered with a big rainsquall... then v. little, v. shifty wind

Most of her latest blog post is duplicated - here is the second, more complete version:

Quote

Day23 Thurs-Fri 25-26 October 2018

5pm Things beginning to calm down a bit now from earlier - seas still fairly steep at times but not so high resulting in not so much rolling around.

Looks like several days of being becalmed is coming up. Hopefully, there'll be a slight breeze at times to make way occasionally but not looking good... Not having the use of an engine to get through the calm areas will make the passage south a lot longer.

Just released first reef - winds definitely easing.

Having to put out towels everywhere to be comfortable when touching surfaces - when writing up my log, the paper gets wet otherwise.

Had a pleasant couple of chats on 40m - excellent copy on two hams - one from near Los Angeles and another in Indiana - good signals from both of them, so no problem chatting.

7.30pm Was having a mug of tea, sitting out in the cockpit, enjoying the refreshing cool air, having brought in the boom to reach the preventer lines and re-connect the starboard preventer - feel far more comfortable with that in place in this swell on a broad reach. A few 3m/10ft steep-faced waves came along dead astern - and, suddenly, there we were, surfing at over 7 kt down the face of each one - good fun!!! We've slowed down a lot, despite full canvas - only making around 5-5.5kt now. The sky is almost completely covered, but with light cloud - no threatening, towering cumulus - yet! Light is fading fast. The moon should be rising soon, if not already, but its bright light will be dimmed by the cloud layer. Down below, the air is very warm and humid - I finally gave up on long trousers - far too hot! Definitely into light summer gear now - bare arms and legs...

Enjoyed an apple - three more left...

We're due W of Costa Rica by 2,500 miles just now. Tomorrow, we'll be due W of Panama....

8pm Time for the Pacific Seafarers' Net on 14300kHz and my daily evening check in and weather report. I keep hearing boats I know checking in - it's nice to find out where they are now. I met most of them in La Cruz de Huanacaxtle, Mexico, over the last few years when they were preparing for their Pacific crossing to the Marquesas and French Polynesia.

11.30pm Wind has dropped right down to 11kt, occasionally up to 14kt, so we've slowed right down ... Doldrums, here we come! Well- that was clearly the 'lull before the storm', almost exactly on reaching 10N. Wind came up suddenly just after writing that - to well over 20kt. We were rushing along due west in a rain squall.... with me frantically reefing down and getting very wet... unwanted excitement! The wind direction had changed from NE to ESE so our course and sail trim needed adjusting. We've been mainly close-hauled ever since then. At least we've all had a wash down in fresh water! Must get out my sailing gloves - hauling on wet ropes with bare hands is an excellent prescription for blistered fingers...

Fri 8am: In fact, all night long, I've been up at least once an hour to check on our heading in wind that finally settled down - right down - to 8kt during the night but 5kt now, from different directions but mainly either SE, SW or S. That meant we had trouble heading S and actually have gone around in a big wiggly loop, frequently headed either NW or NE. At sunrise, there was another major windshift which seemed to coincide with passing a long line of grey cloud.

The best I can do in present conditions is to keep the wind to starboard if it's from the SW quadrant, or to port, if from SE quadrant. That way there's a chance we might make some southing... We've made less than 8 miles of southing in the 9 hours since heading due W when the squall hit last night and we're about 4 miles further W.

8.30am We were heading SW - at 1.4kt! - having made a semi-circle as the 4-5kt wind veered to WSW as I wrote this..... Having just adjusted Fred, we're now heading almost S - at least, until the wind shifts again.... Time for beakfast, with half an eye on the wind direction and our resulting course... and then, maybe, a nap.

Later - well, I managed breakfast but no nap. Just before midday, two enormous rainclouds appeared close by and, despite trying to dodge the one upwind of us, it caught us, of course... Several wind shifts involved changing tack each time, twice backng the main. Reefed down as the wind started rising, as a precautuon - often these clouds have 30kt winds in them - but not seen anything over 20kt so far. Mainly heading W now in S-SE wind. Tried tacking around, thinking would be nice to head more S, but didn't work out - wind shifted and dropped just then. We're 'going with the flow' just now and hoping to get onto a better course soon.

Forecast is still for no wind very soon...

1200 PDT - end of Day23. We made 75 n.ml. (DMG) over the 24 hr period since yesterday - 65ml were made reaching 10N around midnight PDT and the other 10 ml DMG since then (12hrs!) - a lot more, of course, in actual distance travelled... but not in the right direction!

Position & weather report posted to Winlink.org and Shiptrak.org (using my US callsign of kc2iov) not long after midday PDT (=1900 GMT):

TIME: 2018/10/26 20:43GMT LATITUDE: 09-50.00NLONGITUDE: 129-52.88W COURSE: 255T SPEED: 3.6kt WIND_SPEED: 11kt WIND_DIR: SE SWELL_DIR: N SWELL_HT: 1.5m CLOUDS: 100% BARO: 1011.8 hPa TREND: -1 AIR_TEMP: 28.0C SEA_TEMP: 35.0C COMMENT: ITCZ - big rainclouds giving wind - shifts all over...

image0de8e0c25ddf7d8593d4466615defa81.jpeg.355ab1c16ffb55830f855996c8231b05.jpeg

P.S.  In the last ~27 ~15 hours she has traveled ~28 nm. on the tracker, in a Figure 8, to be only 1.3 nm. from where she "started":
10/26/2018 9:50:01 AM to 10/27/2018 12:54:27 AM  (or is that only ~15 hours?)

tracker1026a.thumb.png.ec3168731faf8fea08f5d35956cffe5c.png

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So she sailed in whatever direction she could for nearly two days, then was able to head south-ish for a day, gaining about 60 miles.  But now a much larger dead zone has moved on top of Nereida.  It's going to be another few frustrating days.

143152286_10-28-18a.thumb.jpg.a3c51554d1dd2d100884bb944b3e2215.jpg

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Add to that the foul current, heat, wind shifts and sails slapping it must be sleepless.

The currents at her last position show a strong east flow. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-111.97,0.74,568/loc=-121.819,8.674

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Here's the wind in 24 hours.  Even though the "Maxwell's Daemon" strategy of maximizing the microscopic gains and minimizing the microscopic losses during random light-air conditions is probably her best bet, this is hard on the boat.  During my Pacific Cup races, many of the fleet's gear failures were caused by slatting about in no wind and confused seas.  We always tried to get somewhere else, but if she can just sit it out and wait for favorable winds it might be prudent to button things up so there's less shock-loading on the rigging.  But that's uncomfortable too, and having sail up will reduce the rolling...

 

10-28-18 b.jpg

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34 minutes ago, valis said:

Here's the wind in 24 hours.  Even though the "Maxwell's Daemon" strategy of maximizing the microscopic gains and minimizing the microscopic losses during random light-air conditions is probably her best bet, this is hard on the boat.  During my Pacific Cup races, many of the fleet's gear failures were caused by slatting about in no wind and confused seas.  We always tried to get somewhere else, but if she can just sit it out and wait for favorable winds it might be prudent to button things up so there's less shock-loading on the rigging.  But that's uncomfortable too, and having sail up will reduce the rolling...

Yes, better in nearly all cases to lower the sails. Let the weather come to the boat while you sleep on the cabin sole. The crew will be rested and energetic when the wind arrives. The rig and sails will be intact. When the wind does come back she should bravely hunt down every approaching squall. 

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On 10/17/2018 at 8:13 PM, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Webb Chiles’ approach is interesting.  He waits for a good weather window to leave, leaves, has no wx info on board.  Deals with what comes.  No cosines required.  It’s taken him very, very far indeed.

Anyone able to comment on how well this works. It's very appealing if you have (on can gain) the experience required, plus you cut out a lot of electronic failure points. 

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1 minute ago, Vaeredil said:

Anyone able to comment on how well this works. It's very appealing if you have (on can gain) the experience required, plus you cut out a lot of electronic failure points. 

I lean towards that philosophy. Tend to leave on a good sailing day when the boat is ready. No sense having bad weather on the first day out if it can be easily avoided by waiting a day or two. But sitting in port waiting for a 'window' based on famously dubious forecasts? No thanks. Or listening to the pathetic rag chewing by armchair prophets on the nets? No thanks. However, I wouldn't go so far as to not use WX info while underway. Warnings of major wind shifts, frontal systems, typhoons and such are very handy. Finding a typhoon by eyeballing the barometer and wind shifts is a step too far for me.  I long ago reduced my consumption of GRIB files in favor of the ancient FAX-like prognostic charts. Lately I have gone a step further. Last time across the Pacific I simply listened to the WWV/WWVH severe weather broadcast or read the equivalent SAILDOCS text file downloaded via IRIDIUM.

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Yes, he "deals with what comes" and I learned from his presentation that he deals with some pretty hairy shit that could be avoided with timely weather information. He's just such a damned good sailor and survivalist that he gets through it.

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My philosophy is that I'd rather have information, even known iffy information, than not. You can always choose to ignore it. The problem is if you come to depend on it and can't deal with the loss of it. 

Webb may be a badass but if you keep putting yourself in harm's way, eventually the odds will catch up with you no matter how good you are. 

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I tend to agree with Webb Chiles for the most part although if I get weather data underway I might well use it, but I don't go out of my way to follow every last bit of weather data there is. If you are doing passage making in a nice part of the ocean, which most of us do, you want it to be as relaxing an experience as possible. Not possible to relax if you are worried about what might happen in 3 or 4 days - which in reality may not happen as forecast.

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Wednesday, 0600,  Position: 6.617,-128.27, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 145 degrees

Looks like Jeanne has escaped the doldrums!?  She has been doing 5.8 knots for the last eight hours, close to her rhumb line great circle heading.  She'll have headwinds from that direction before reaching the equator but she is moving again now; wouldn't be surprised to see her bear off east when that happens.  Wind appears to be from SW @ 11 knots: https://www.windy.com/?6.617,-128.270,7

Windy1031a.thumb.jpg.9c8d41053feeb9d937fcaee2a484e6a3.jpg

 

P.S.  I just noticed that my understanding of "rhumb line" to be the same as "great circle" route is wrong.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhumb_line

Quote

In navigation, a rhumb linerhumb, or loxodrome is an arc crossing all meridians of longitude at the same angle, that is, a path with constant bearing as measured relative to true or magnetic north.
[...]
A rhumb line can be contrasted with a great circle, which is the path of shortest distance between two points on the surface of a sphere. On a great circle, the bearing to the destination point does not remain constant.

In this case, her great circle bearing of 152 degrees now changes to 148 by the time she passes west of Easter Island (very close), and to 140 degrees at 45S latitude, ~1,000 nm. from Cape Horn.

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The rhumb line is what you get when you plot a straight line on a Mercator projection chart (a typical marine chart or map).  As you note, this gives you a constant compass bearing.  A great circle route is the result if you stretch a string from one point to another on a spherical globe.  It's usually shorter than the matching rhumb line (if the direction exactly  is north/south or east/west, the two lines are identical.)

Jeanne still has some patches of light air ahead, but yes, it looks like she's through the worst of that now.  She will sail SE when she has to, but I suspect that she will be trying to make it due south when she can for the next 1000 miles or so, given the average wind directions.  Check out the windy.com GRIB display for the next nine days:  There is a persistent south-pacific high around 35S / 130W that she has to get around.  If it's anything like the NPAC High (and I assume it is), she's going to want to sail around the western edge of that.  While you're looking at the forecast, watch the low-pressure systems marching from west to east at around 50S.  In some areas the waves are 32 ft @ 13 seconds.  It's all pretty hairy.

10-31-18 a.jpg

Of course Jeanne is currently about 2,500 miles north of that spot. 

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On 10/29/2018 at 8:27 AM, Ajax said:

Yes, he "deals with what comes" and I learned from his presentation that he deals with some pretty hairy shit that could be avoided with timely weather information. He's just such a damned good sailor and survivalist that he gets through it.

I’m thinking, too, of the “minimalist” Pardeys as well.  But when they started out crossing oceans back in then ‘70s, they also had access to limited wx info (i.e., not minimalists by choice except in terms of the comms, etc equipment they have onboard).

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