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Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018


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". Replying to Panoramix:    #1285 Posted June 6 "Very cool. Afte

They've just mounted a bronze plaque on the Wall of History, in the Victoria inner harbour, just across from the Provincial Legislature.  This is just above the walkway where several months ago they n

Jeanne has crossed her outbound track!  I know that she wants to cross her Victoria starting line, but as far as I'm concerned -- she's done it!  Congratulations to an inspiring human being!

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You guys have been talking about it so I'll throw it out there....is there an over/under in terms of boat speed and outrunning weather? I know the Dashews had it at about 10-12 knots. Not average, but boat speed in terms of outrunning in any direction under sail or power with large tanks. Based on how fast a weather system might move...opinions?

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1 hour ago, fufkin said:

You guys have been talking about it so I'll throw it out there....is there an over/under in terms of boat speed and outrunning weather? I know the Dashews had it at about 10-12 knots. Not average, but boat speed in terms of outrunning in any direction under sail or power with large tanks. Based on how fast a weather system might move...opinions?

It's a bit stochastic. You can mitigate the risk of some level of wind (say gale force) but you can't get it down to zero on a significant passage. A front might cover most of an ocean basin and come ashore on a continent.  If you're between them and realities of bars or politics don't favor you then there isn't a practical speed that will get you clear. With smaller systems you have the vagaries of forecasting. A tropical wave might develop a low level center or two anywhere in a wide area. Models might move their solution around a hundred miles in  3 hours. GFS and EC might well disagree. Far form shore the weather models sometimes go off on wild tangents (at least on the scales that 20 knots will make a difference on) and take quite some time to get corrected.  A fast moving low might fly out of the topics or SO and the models might disagree wildly on where it's headed. Given enough time some wx forecast will be ambiguous and it will not be clear where to route. In the fullness of time you will see bad weather at sea. That said, the ability and willingness to motor for a day or two and decent wx info can make an enormous difference in the weather you will encounter and the time you will spend on passage. My WAG is that the ability to maintain 6 knots in any direction for 48 hours gets you a substantial majority of the advantage you'd get if you had 25 knots for the same period but every increase in speed and range should help.

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8 hours ago, fufkin said:

You guys have been talking about it so I'll throw it out there....is there an over/under in terms of boat speed and outrunning weather? I know the Dashews had it at about 10-12 knots. Not average, but boat speed in terms of outrunning in any direction under sail or power with large tanks. Based on how fast a weather system might move...opinions?

"in any direction"?  There's a rub, eh?  SV Delos has claimed 200 miles/day in their best conditions but apparently can't sail to windward well at all.

The numbers I posted yesterday for Nereida (88 nm./day = 3.7 knots) and Jzerro (147 nm./day = 6.1 knots) are average VMG over nearly 3,000 nm. great circle distance between end points.  While not identical conditions, both crossed through the ITCZ doldrums on roughly similar routes.  They include calms and headwinds and all the zig-zags each boat went through, which is somewhat dependent on how attentively ("aggressively"?) each boat is sailed to its potential.  Real boat speeds were obviously higher, depending on each boat's track, and it's quite likely that superior windward ability results in a shorter track.

As to "outrunning weather" (or seeking favorable wind), that long term daily average VMG is indicative of the practical limit for weather planning.  If you believe the three day forecast, for example, Nereida can almost ignore weather more than 264 miles away (3 * 88) because no matter what she does, she won't get there within the forecast window.  The weather range for Jzerro's average VMG in this example would be 441 miles (3 * 147).

It's a bit more complicated than this, of course, since some weather patterns are more stable than others and your estimated daily runs in current/expected conditions count more than VMG averages over thousands of miles.  Bottom line though is that a 4ksb is a sitting duck for weather systems and must suffer through whatever comes along.

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Weather systems tend to move faster than the boats we sail. And their influence covers a larger extent than one might guess by looking at the charts. For example, you might try to run from a typhoon a few days in advance, however they tend have much dead air around them.Same with the calm conditions ahead of cold fronts dropping out of the high latitudes.  If you motor away in some (guessed) direction for a couple of days you have used up your fuel and options.

Windward performance, the value of which is often discounted by cruisers, is quite valuable in transiting the ITCZ, doldrums and progressing thru the dead air ahead of a system. When the wind is in the low single digits the best direction to sail is close to windward. Beating or close reaching. Hopefully windward is a beneficial direction. If I were in Nereida's predicament in the ITCZ I would have been awake and "racing" whenever winds were favorable. Days at a stretch is necessary. Sleeping with sails furled when they were not. And with a boat that scoots to windward with 5 knots of breeze.

Sacrificial working ends on the reef outhauls are advised. She has maybe worn out her gooseneck too...with a long long way to go. Never never slat on a crossing.

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Equipment issues: Neither solar panel is providing any juice. In a way that's a good thing, since it tells me that it's a wiring problem. Having both panels fail so close together is quite unlikely. (And she has mentioned green butt connections).  I hope she's got enough spare wire, connectors, etc.

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Nov 4, 20:22 UTC -- Jeanne has crossed the equator!  She's currently sailing almost due south, at 5.8 kts.

And she's making some progress on her electrical problems.

Way to go, Jeanne!

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These young people today...... sigh...

We're making way roughly S-SSW at ~6kt in F3-4 from ESE. (I'm changing to the Beaufort scale for wind strength from now on - any wind speed I give will be a 'guesstimate'...) The AIS has an independent GPS input and is giving me position, COG and SOG - the only problem being it 'jumps about' a lot, so deducing actual speed & course readings is difficult.

1200 PDT (=1900GMT) - end of Day31. We made ? n.ml.(DMG) over the 24 hr period since yesterday's noon position. Presently, don't know distance - with no plotter, it has to be calculated... Goes like this:

Square root of [(60.26-12.40)squared + (132.65-8.66)squared] = sq root of 17884.0997 = 134 to nearest integer.

Does she rely totally on electronic navigation and not carry a copy of Nories?

The Traverse Table would solve her problems re day's run.... as long as she knows to convert DLong to Dep as she gets into higher lats...

If she still needs to know how to calculate Great Circle distances and initial course she just needs to use the Haversine formula... simply replace the GP with the lat long of destination.....

Not that I can see why she needs that.... working the winds will be more of a concern on the way to the Horn....staying well west of the SE Pacific High and well offshore (500 miles or more ) south of about 40* S.

The traditional concept of the roaring forties flew out the window when the first WX sats were launched.... for the last 2 months the wind along the patagonian coast  from 40*S to  Magallanes has been calm or Sly for 90% of the time with big highs sitting offshore....

sopac.jpg

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If somebody (Valis?) is in contact with her they could draw her attention to the Chilean weather products.....

 

'Tues 5pm Another rain squall lies off to starboard affecting us... I was busy studying what weather information is available as we head further S towards Cape Horn and on...

..............

Been busy exploring weather information again - a matter of requesting files to see what turns up - they don't always give what they seem to indicate. Saildocs is an excellent resource - I can request almost any file on the Internet so long as I have its correct URL - but, clearly, I can't follow any links given within it. So I'm looking at weather information available from French Polynesia, Australia and New Zealand for when I lose that available from NOAA (U.S.), which only goes down to 20S.'

Available here in low bandwidth if she has iridium or whatever

http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/indice/english.htm

Also available by good old fashioned fax from Valpo (CBV) and Punta Arenas (CBM)......

Details of skeds and frequencies on the NOAA wefax page....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/marine/rfax.pdf

The list is a bit outdated but at 1100Z they broadcast an up-to-date sked.

 

 

 

 

 

 

carta.jpg

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9 hours ago, Cisco said:

If somebody (Valis?) is in contact with her they could draw her attention to the Chilean weather products.....

 

'Tues 5pm Another rain squall lies off to starboard affecting us... I was busy studying what weather information is available as we head further S towards Cape Horn and on...

..............

Been busy exploring weather information again - a matter of requesting files to see what turns up - they don't always give what they seem to indicate. Saildocs is an excellent resource - I can request almost any file on the Internet so long as I have its correct URL - but, clearly, I can't follow any links given within it. So I'm looking at weather information available from French Polynesia, Australia and New Zealand for when I lose that available from NOAA (U.S.), which only goes down to 20S.'

Available here in low bandwidth if she has iridium or whatever

http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/indice/english.htm

Also available by good old fashioned fax from Valpo (CBV) and Punta Arenas (CBM)......

Details of skeds and frequencies on the NOAA wefax page....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/marine/rfax.pdf

The list is a bit outdated but at 1100Z they broadcast an up-to-date sked. 

Those are good links!  I'm not in regular contact, but I can send her email via SSB WInlink (I don't have her satphone #).  I will send her a short list of the synoptic chart URLs, and she should be able to request the image files via saildocs.  I assume that she has the NOAA "Big list of worldwide WFAX transmissions", but will offer to send her that as well.

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19 hours ago, valis said:

Those are good links!  I'm not in regular contact, but I can send her email via SSB WInlink (I don't have her satphone #).  I will send her a short list of the synoptic chart URLs, and she should be able to request the image files via saildocs.  I assume that she has the NOAA "Big list of worldwide WFAX transmissions", but will offer to send her that as well.

Here is her reply:

Quote

Wonderful!
Thank you so much!!
Just gor MSLP and wind charts - just what I wanted.
Getting Drake Passage - not clear what that is...
Do they have any Ice Reports for Drake Passage (maybe that's what it is?)
Can you find out if Cape Naval is transmitting from Cape area in S.Africa?
They are MRCC for S. Atlantic region.
And are wxfaxes  available from SA Met Service, similar to these Chilean ones?
Thanks for your help - really useful info - making good use of my Iridium airtime!

I've found some sea ice charts and South Africa marine WX, and sent her the links.  I also found an old schedule for Cape Naval WFAX, and sent her the text (same data as in the big NOAA worldwide WFAX schedule).

Can anyone find good sources for this stuff?  The ones I found were really too large (in kBytes) for her to use regularly.

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My searching and enquiries have turned up nothing current for 'Cape Naval'..... I seem to recall receiving HF faxes from them in about 2012.... haven't needed them since...

 

She will just have to listen on those frequencies and see what turns up when she gets past the Horn.

 

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She sailed through a fishing fleet. Seems to have poor butt connectors on her solar.

" We made 121 n.ml.(DMG) over the 24 hr period since yesterday's 1100 PST position, despite gentle sailing.. Full canvas overnight, and up to now, in the lighter wind then. Sail trimming, as usual, for our present broad reach, gave increased speed! Position & weather report posted to Winlink.org and Shiptrak.org (using my US callsign of kc2iov) not long after 1100 PST (= 1900 GMT): TIME: 2018/11/10 19:00GMT LATITUDE: 13-33.14S LONGITUDE: 127-50.06W COURSE: 180T SPEED: 5.8kt WIND_SPEED: 13kt WIND_DIR: NE SWELL_DIR: ENE SWELL_HT: 2.0m CLOUDS: 20% BARO: 1013.9hPa TREND: 1 AIR_TEMP: 28.0C SEA_TEMP: 33.0C COMMENT: Bright, sunny some cloud.. Working on solar panels "

https://svnereida.com/blog

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Lots of fishing boats in the south pacific but not many in her immeadiate past area.... I wonder of she is picking up those AIS net markers that they use?

Interesting that she is appearing on free/non subscription Marinetraffic.com as a 'named' contact... maybe  she has some sort of subscription that does that??

That's her in the middle in purple.... fishing boats are brownish... cargo ships green..

 

fishboats.jpg

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I thought the "named" contacts were from ground stations and the un-named ones were from satellite data? At least that's how it appears in my vicinity.  (Sometimes this results in vessels showing up twice, a few miles apart, since the data comes in at different times.)   

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Yes, the unnamed targets are from sat reception, unless you are paying big bucks to have full sat-ais reporting.  I'm paying about $6 a month to have Marinetraffic.com show me Jeanne's AIS reports when a satellite picks them up (you can pay for one vessel, more vessels, or all).  It's actually been a couple of weeks since her previous sat reception, but one came in last night:

964182229_SatAIS11-11-18.thumb.jpg.e026fb0a98e5aa5bd970340658c0def9.jpg

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Jeanne is about 1,000 miles west of where I'd prefer to be right now...

Tracker: http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida, Blog: https://svnereida.com/blog

Position: -16.89,-127.18, Heading: 144 degrees, Speed: 3.9 knots

https://www.windy.com/distance?-41.013,-57.920,4

windy_2018Nov12a.thumb.jpg.9e2d4a045c3d00a538217552edb665b3.jpg

The high to her SW will move east, be centered on her great circle route by Wednesday and halfway between Easter Island and Chile by Friday.

windy_2018Nov12b.thumb.jpg.a88eba0dd3239ca1d12e1b0f4d726dff.jpg

windy_2018Nov12c.jpg.a10899e658afddac69b1a81bb000108e.jpg

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I've heard circumnavigating referred to as the sailing version of summiting Mt. Evererst.

I disagree with that analogy. I think it's more akin to summiting the world's 5 tallest peaks, all in one trip, non-stop, with no guide sherpas.

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2 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

Jeanne is about 1,000 miles west of where I'd prefer to be right now...

Tracker: http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida, Blog: https://svnereida.com/blog

Position: -16.89,-127.18, Heading: 144 degrees, Speed: 3.9 knots

https://www.windy.com/distance?-41.013,-57.920,4

windy_2018Nov12a.thumb.jpg.9e2d4a045c3d00a538217552edb665b3.jpg

The high to her SW will move east, be centered on her great circle route by Wednesday and halfway between Easter Island and Chile by Friday.

windy_2018Nov12b.thumb.jpg.a88eba0dd3239ca1d12e1b0f4d726dff.jpg

windy_2018Nov12c.jpg.a10899e658afddac69b1a81bb000108e.jpg

However..... the highs don't jump the Andes... they tend to just sit until forced north by a low coming up from the  SW.

Most dangerous situation down there is to be a) to close to a lee shore b) running before a strong NW'ly which is blowing over a substantial SWly swell.

Best to get south as quick as you can first and then worry about heading east.....  

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"The high to her SW will move east, be centered on her great circle route by Wednesday and halfway between Easter Island and Chile by Friday."

Not sure what her 24 runs will be during that period, but won't she soon pickup consistent  E'ly backing eventually  to NE'ly breezes that will make for steady sailing and good VMG between now and Fri? What am I missing?

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2 hours ago, Cisco said:

Most dangerous situation down there is to be a) to close to a lee shore

That's true anywhere, eh?  The southerlies off northern Chile turning to easterlies off Peru preclude sailing south anywhere near that coastline, but it looked to me like punching through the ITCZ further east and then being forced to sail west for awhile might have worked well - and been shorter.  Not hindsight, it looked that way to me all along.

2 hours ago, Cwinsor said:

"The high to her SW will move east, be centered on her great circle route by Wednesday and halfway between Easter Island and Chile by Friday."

Not sure what her 24 runs will be during that period, but won't she soon pickup consistent  E'ly backing eventually  to NE'ly breezes that will make for steady sailing and good VMG between now and Fri? What am I missing?

She has had consistent easterlies for quite awhile.  That might be changing due to wind holes, south-easterlies and northerlies in her path ahead.  We will see.

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'Keep off lee shore' south of Pto Montt means 500 miles off shore... unless you want to make landfall in Chile.:)

Yes, from the ITCV south just a case of working south as best you can until you pick up the westerlies in maybe 35/40 south if you are lucky.... but avoiding sailing into the middle of the highs that live off the Chilean coast N of 40S... this austral spring they have been working their way south into the mid to high 40s...

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20 minutes ago, Shu said:

How's she doing?

https://svnereida.com/
https://svnereida.com/blog
tracker: http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida

Her solar panel drama goes on and on...
She looks fine to me until perhaps a week from tomorrow (Friday, 23 November):
https://www.windy.com/?-26.402,-123.772,6,m:c0gacFA

windy_2018Nov15a.thumb.jpg.9299dad716daee7e8b419b268077dede.jpg

Friday, 23 November (below):

windy_2018Nov15b.thumb.jpg.3ed974ac22a30545bb809c9992eafae6.jpg

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https://svnereida.com/
https://svnereida.com/blog
tracker: http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida

Position: -27.54,-123.63, Heading: 140 degrees, Speed: 5.8 knots

https://www.windy.com/?-29.085,-118.103,6,m:cTkacI8   (wind flag at her current approximate position)

Now and the next three days (below).  That's Easter Island at the top right, below the Windy.com logo.  The wind line on Tuesday between northwesterlies and easterlies is ~300 nm. away, at approximately latitude -31.3, moving south to latitude -34 (~520 nm.) by Wednesday - assuming she maintains 140 degree heading.  Next Friday she might have light southerlies, then Saturday and Sunday she might be in a wind hole.

windy_2018Nov17a.thumb.jpg.1e4fde353fad7afa726f452ad6898cad.jpg

windy_2018Nov17b.thumb.jpg.0c2bbd2f2602017945b69176ff20e1b6.jpg

windy_2018Nov17c.thumb.jpg.166c036654ee4de5304d44bed23c6272.jpg

windy_2018Nov17d.thumb.jpg.6de451229aaa1ee9eb6c7a9db216ca65.jpg

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1 hour ago, ProaSailor said:

Care to tell us who and where they are?

Hi

Just what I read on her second last post.

" One radio session just started, that's working out quite well, is between myself, Mark on 'Maverick' and Susanne on 'Nehaj' - we're all headed towards the Horn and not too far apart, so radio contact is quite good. I'm just over 1,000 ml to the N of the two of them. Susanne is not in the Golden Globe Race but is at 45S, with Mark 570 mls ahead of her and Uku on 'One and All' over 1,000 ml behind her. "

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37 minutes ago, Norse Horse said:

Hi

Just what I read on her second last post.

" One radio session just started, that's working out quite well, is between myself, Mark on 'Maverick' and Susanne on 'Nehaj' - we're all headed towards the Horn and not too far apart, so radio contact is quite good. I'm just over 1,000 ml to the N of the two of them. Susanne is not in the Golden Globe Race but is at 45S, with Mark 570 mls ahead of her and Uku on 'One and All' over 1,000 ml behind her. "

Ah, so, thanks.  Two of the three in the Golden Globe Race, [all three] approaching Cape Horn from New Zealand:

https://yb.tl/ggr2018#
https://goldengloberace.com/livetracker/

windy_2018Nov18a.thumb.jpg.48f25215b7c70c0924e24f61a0748200.jpg

And Susanne Huber-Curphey on s/v Nehaj, "...the first woman to navigate the Northwest Passage single-handed (west to east 6)", doing the Long Route 2018, is also approaching from south of New Zealand: http://longueroute2018.com/

Quote

In the spirit of Bernard Moitessier, this world tour is not a race: it is a pilgrimage, there is no regulation, no constraints, no obligations, no price either. .. Just the ultimate reward to have a dream come true and to go beyond oneself. It is a return to the true values, the personal human responsibilities of every man and every sailor. The freedom, the serenity of being at sea, alone in front of the ocean.

This tracker shows boats in both events: https://maps.sail.cloud/home/event/19

tracker_2018Nov18a.thumb.png.17a174e119a96e996f6cee4a1b48e42b.png

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From Jeanne's latest blog entry: https://svnereida.com/blog/4926-day-46-sat-sun-17-18-nov-2018-good-sunshine-with-scattered-thin-cloud-rolling-around-downwind

Quote

Strong sunlight this afternoon - but I'm just not seeing any evidence of it getting into my batteries - so have been looking for the solar panels' earth lead(s). Very glad I did! I've just come away from working in the aft cabin where I found a single earth lead coming from the panels into under the aft bunk - clearly there's a connection inside the boat just below the pole which leads the wires to down below. But the earth and two postive wires were totally tangled up with my autopilot (AP) rams - with the back-up ram in particular. Everything - several other wires as well as the vital hydraulic AP line - was in a mess in that area - just where the steering quadrant and AP rams need room to move freely...

"earth lead(s)"?  The saga of her electrical problems is hard to follow.  It has been going on since almost the beginning of her trip, with daily blog updates raising and dashing hopes for its resolution.  Still unresolved.

Position Information: 19/11/2018  11:31
Position: -29.96,-121.05 - Heading: 128 degrees, Speed: 7.8 knots

Unless she heads east, she'll be crossing that wind line tonight as it approaches her track, changing from NW winds now to SE headwinds:
https://www.windy.com/?-29.960,-121.050,5

windy_2018Nov19a.jpg.4f1e428a2fe2733dfa05aa3701f10689.jpg

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11 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

From Jeanne's latest blog entry: https://svnereida.com/blog/4926-day-46-sat-sun-17-18-nov-2018-good-sunshine-with-scattered-thin-cloud-rolling-around-downwind

"earth lead(s)"?  The saga of her electrical problems is hard to follow.  It has been going on since almost the beginning of her trip.

Earth leads - I think meaning negative (negative is usually [but not always] at ground, or earth, potential).

I believe she has a physics background, so she’ll probably sort out the various problems :-)

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2 hours ago, Jud - s/v Sputnik said:

Earth leads - I think meaning negative (negative is usually [but not always] at ground, or earth, potential).

I believe she has a physics background, so she’ll probably sort out the various problems :-)

When I saw her and her boat about a year ago I was far from impressed about preparations. I am not surprised about the solar panel wiring. Nor the dubious rigging issues so far. Overall more casual than most of us would be before a crossing.

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32 minutes ago, Foiling Optimist said:

 https://maps.sail.cloud/home/event/19 - Thanks ProaSailor that is the map we were looking for!

And I see that Jeanne's boat has now been added to it!?  How did that happen?  Not her track though...  It is cool to see different fleets on a single tracker like that but otherwise, that tracker is very short on features, or I can't see how to activate them?  There is a Windy.com logo/link but why?

This one shows two or three positions per day for her, but only the last 64 entries, going back to October 21:
http://mmsn-shiptrak.herokuapp.com/?callsign=kc2iov&filter=30&_m=f

Her current position: -30.5,-120.0, Heading: 120 degrees, Speed: 5.8 knots
https://www.windy.com/?-30.500,-120.000,6,m:cOOacPb

Was it @valis who mentioned earlier that her speed on this tracker are suspiciously regular and unwavering?  They jump between a short list of values.

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4 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

Was it @valis who mentioned earlier that her speed on this tracker are suspiciously regular and unwavering?  They jump between a short list of values.

I don't recall if I mentioned it, but I've certainly noticed the strangely consistent speed numbers, apparently selected from a very small list of possible values.  Her 24-hour average runs are pretty close to the reported hourly (most of the time) speeds, but I find it impossible to believe that her speed is the same, down to the tenth of a knot, hour after hour.  I've decided to only take the tracker numbers as a rough indication of her true speed.   

I've been trying to match the polars I'm using for my "what-if?" routing exercises to her actual speed from whatever source I can get, and the windspeed / angle from windy.com.  It's a fun exercise, but far from precise.  Probably the most important factor is that Jeanne isn't sailing the same as a full and rested crew trying to wring the best possible speed from the boat.  I do agree with her "don't break anything important" philosophy.

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Valis, I asked a question somewhere else and JohnT from CapeTown sent me this... please pass it on.

'


Hi, I contacted Bridgett at Cape Naval for you. The answer is "yes, when the weather service bothers to send them the info to transmit".

The frequencies I was quoted are:
4012.1 KHz
7506.1 KHz
13536.1 KHz
18236.1 KHz

Download the 04:30 Schedule for full info.

Times now appear to only be at 05:00, 10:30, 15:30 and 22:30 (all UTC)

I must admit that I have not heard of anybody in this neck-of-the-woods using WX Fax for many years, so cannot confirm the above info as being accurate. From talking to Bridgett, it appears quite sporadic!

In the old days the WX Fax service was transmitted by Cape Town Radio, but they closed down the HF WX Fax service as their satellite service had taken over. The SA Navy took over, but there are few funds these days to maintain the ageing transmitters, never mind the staff to actually operate the service.

John
_________
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11 hours ago, valis said:

I don't recall if I mentioned it, but I've certainly noticed the strangely consistent speed numbers, apparently selected from a very small list of possible values.  Her 24-hour average runs are pretty close to the reported hourly (most of the time) speeds, but I find it impossible to believe that her speed is the same, down to the tenth of a knot, hour after hour.  I've decided to only take the tracker numbers as a rough indication of her true speed.   

I've been trying to match the polars I'm using for my "what-if?" routing exercises to her actual speed from whatever source I can get, and the windspeed / angle from windy.com.  It's a fun exercise, but far from precise.  Probably the most important factor is that Jeanne isn't sailing the same as a full and rested crew trying to wring the best possible speed from the boat.  I do agree with her "don't break anything important" philosophy.

These are the only speed values that appear on her tracker - highly suspicious, multiples of 1.95 rounded ("floor") to a single decimal place, likely a rounding error somewhere:

-1.9 knots  (when she is transmitting on the HF radio?)
3.9 knots
5.8 knots
7.8 knots

She loves her DDW sailing configuration.

Her current position, 20/11/2018  13:24 (UTC?) - Lat/Lng: -31.42,-118.15 - Speed: 5.8 knots - Heading: 90 degrees (due east)

Just north of that wind line, but likely not for long: https://www.windy.com/?-31.420,-118.150,6,m:cNxacSs

windy_2018Nov20a.thumb.jpg.47222deda1f87ac395340bdcb7716a8c.jpg

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Her current position, 20/11/2018  20:25 (UTC?) - Lat/Lng: -31.53,-117.49 - Speed: 3.9 knots - Heading: 64 degrees  (NE)

blog: Day 48 Mon-Tues 19-20 Nov 2018 Change of climate as a Low affects us.....
https://svnereida.com/blog/4928-day-48-mon-tues-19-20-nov-2018-change-of-climate-as-a-low-affects-us

Quote

Wind generator is doing well in the stronger wind but I'm still needing to run the small diesel generator 2-3 times a day for half an hour each time to enable my radio use and for charging computer etc.

Her track since previous post seven hours ago: (yellow point)

tracker_2018Nov20a.png.5acfd358d5a5b155a7cd7cd77cd71ff4.png

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Jeanne's position this morning: 21/11/2018 12:46 UTC - Lat/Lng: -32.40,-117.18 - Speed: 3.9 knots - Heading: 158 degrees

tracker_2018Nov21a.png.858c5d0456fae295656aabf4de0e43bf.png

Still north of the wind line, which is moving south away from her: https://www.windy.com/?-32.598,-116.378,7,m:cLPacT8

windy_2018Nov21a.jpg.be2ea4385f46df99bec28722a00b32f7.jpg

Looks like some tough choices in a slow boat for the next couple of days, until the high passes south of her on Friday (west to east) and those easterlies bend left around it to become northerlies by Saturday.  Still a long way to go to Cape Horn.  2,233 nm. to -56,-76, which is 16 days at 140 nm. per day.

windy_2018Nov21b.thumb.jpg.c9b62209acf1066487ee4be2f3e4b36e.jpg

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At 22/11/2018 12:33 UTC, Lat/Lng: -33.55,-115.57, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 173 degrees.

About an hour ago, Jeanne took a sharp turn to starboard, from heading 101 degrees (E) to heading 173 degrees (S), apparently determined to punch through that wind line and get into the band of SEasterlies just south of it, temporarily leaving the NWesterlies behind.  The upper edge of the next wind hole is ~270 nm. due south.

https://www.windy.com/?-33.550,-115.570,6,i:pressure,m:cJmacWF

windy_2018Nov22a.jpg.f3a4f5d4b1f947781c510e2cb08fb4fc.jpg

When the high moving from west to east centers due south of her tomorrow (Friday), the northern edge of the westerlies "below" it will be ~430 nm. from where she is now.  As the high continues to move east, the narrow band of easterlies bends around it to become NE and northerly by Saturday.

Struggles with the solar panel wiring continue unresolved.

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6 hours ago, Norse Horse said:

Office pool to celebrate her rounding of the Horn?:D

Dec 5 2pm as per her log recording.

December 5th?  I'm not sure where you saw/heard that?  On Nov 5th, she said "I think I'll leave it to celebrate seeing in the New Year - by then, we should be well past Cape Horn".

I don't when she'll get there but definitely not by Dec 5th!  This morning she had 2,115 nm. great circle distance to reach the -56,-76 reference point I've been using, which is ~300 nm. from Cape Horn.  That's ~2,400 nm. total if she makes a bee line toward it, which she probably won't, since she loves to pole out wing-and-wing going DDW, a slow point of sail.  At 140 miles/day, 2,400 miles would take 17 days, which would be December 9th, but yesterday's blog entry said she had made only 79 nm. in the previous 24 hours.  And there is rougher weather ahead than she's been through for most of her trip thus far.  Making Cape Horn by winter solstice, December 21, would be more reasonable.

 

46 minutes ago, oysterhead said:

Nereida is on the Longue Route 2018 tracking page...

https://maps.sail.cloud/home/event/19

 

LR.Tracking.jpeg

That was mentioned last Monday - it looks like her position on that tracker is two days old?  20/11/2018

This tracker shows her most recent position - four hours of not good: http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida

tracker_2018Nov22a.png.85a6b8edae382383aeff6ffa5142fc8e.png

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11 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

' Making Cape Horn by winter solstice........'

One would hope she is down here well before then.... summer solstice maybe ?  :)

I seem to recall on previous trips she had some bee in her bonnet about needing to be at the Horn on a certain date.... as if any of the  other 364 days was certain death....

11 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

 

 

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Jeanne's boom kicker has let go from the mast. https://svnereida.com/blog

" not long after the boom had swung over, it jerked upward and I soon saw that the rod-kicker (that supports the boom) had come away from the mast - the connection had failed. I reefed the mainsail, as I'd intended anyway - and more so now, to put less stress on the boom while i investigated the situation and thought over my options - I was not a 'happy bunny' at this point.... The fitting had basically torn all the rivets out so one thing that needed to be done was to get rid of the remaining protruding rivet bits - out with the hammer! Clearly, the fitting was not going to go back snugly where it had been - but I decided I could lash it around the mast so that it would be more or less in place, moving very little ... So I set to - and by 6.30am was satisfied that I'd lashed it reasonably well, using Spectra line.. "

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Ish, they are well put together and so are the Selden spars that come stock with the Najad.  Better custom spars just cost more $.  

While properly installed rivets should be sufficient for most, Jeanne has a few miles on Nereida and it would be easy to miss some loose rivets during inspection.  

Lucky the boat & rig isn't all busted up and it came off clean. She should have the tools to drill/ tap 8mm bolts, although a time consuming task on a nice day at the dock.

Monday morning I see my client with an unused 35' that monitors Jeanne daily log with plans to go offshore. Most of these issues don't show up till you slam them around a little.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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She didn't post a blog update yesterday - first time to skip one, I think?  Her speed has been very slow since she hove-to two days ago.  She has traveled only ~89 nm. in the last 49 hours, due south of where she was Thursday morning.  Only 70 nm. closer to the -56,-76 reference point, or ~35 nm./day.  Cape Horn is 67 days away at that rate, on the great circle route.

Saturday morning tracker update at 24/11/2018  13:45 UTC, Lat/Lng: -35.03,-115.52,  Speed: 1.9 knots, Heading: 160 degrees

https://www.windy.com/?-35.030,-115.550,6,i:pressure,m:cGKacWB

tracker_2018Nov24a.png.8bbad799f89862865b226fcd71bd0889.png

tracker_2018Nov24b.png.dfd3719c654b7f70c9bd453c239cf915.png

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7 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

She didn't post a blog update yesterday - first time to skip one, I think?

Jeanne belatedly posted yesterday's blog update ~3 hours ago:
https://svnereida.com/blog/4931-day-51-thurs-fri-22-23-nov-2018-winds-still-from-the-east-seas-a-lot-bigger-still-hove-to

And just now posted today's: "... still hove-to, waiting for better wind direction."
https://svnereida.com/blog/4932-day-52-fri-sat-23-24-nov-2018-big-seas-from-strong-weather-to-south-still-hove-to-waiting-for-better-wind-direction

Quote

... it took me a time to realise that the reason the loose sail was dangling far lower than usual, on the downwind side of the boom, was that the starboard lazyjack lines, that normally hold the sail in to the boom when reefing, were flying around - they'd broken... I managed to grab one end near the cockpit but saw the loose, higher section making a macrame pattern high up in the shrouds - it is still well out of reach and the eye at its end is totally tangled high up.
[...]
The wind does seem to be slowly backing more to the north but I'll not move away before dealing with those items - no rush.... I'm not in a race! My priorities are keeping 'Nereida' functioning well and staying safe.

24/11/2018  19:46 UTC, Lat/Lng: -35.20,-115.38,  Speed: 1.9 knots, Heading: 134 degrees

https://www.windy.com/?-35.200,-115.380,7,m:cGMacXu   (seas S 10' @ 11 secs.)

tracker_2018Nov24c.png.d4c7318c255c1493be4bce50d44543ad.png

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She apparently did an interview by radio with GOB. She stated that she's had multiple material and equipment failures. Here's an excerpt of the breakages part of the interview:

 

GOOD OLD BOAT: What, if any, equipment failures have you had so far?

JEANNE: Lots! Staysail furler fittings, small generator water pump, genoa and staysail foot shackle pins (both!!),... I've forgotten several others but all have been dealt with. Most recently - two days ago, I had heaved to, finding us in light SE winds and not wanting to head NE or SW. The wind go up so I went to reef the main - the rod-kicker came away from the mast - pulled all the rivets out!! I've now lashed that fitting to the mast base, likewise the very similar boom gooseneck fitting (!), and pray my Spectra lashings hold fast.
Up to then, for the last 2 wks or more, I've been working on my solar panels' wiring and connections, having lost all solar input. That same morning, I was pleased to see good solar power once again coming in to the batteries - problem finally dealt with successfully!

GOOD OLD BOAT: What are you missing most right now, this minute, 50+ days out?

JEANNE: Shoreside help and equipment/materials availability! My starboard lazyjack broke yesterday evening and it would be nice to replace both and deal with the rod-kicker mast fitting in a better, more permanent way, a well as checking the gooseneck mast fitting or replacing it.

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And she dropped a bombshell on the GGR fleet...' JEANNE: Please note - they get their positions from talking to radio contacts daily on SSB - the fact that skies are overcast for days on end, preventing sextant sights being taken, does not stop them from knowing exactly where they are from other people who can see their tracker positions! '.......

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20 minutes ago, Cisco said:

And she dropped a bombshell on the GGR fleet...' JEANNE: Please note - they get their positions from talking to radio contacts daily on SSB - the fact that skies are overcast for days on end, preventing sextant sights being taken, does not stop them from knowing exactly where they are from other people who can see their tracker positions! '.......

I had no idea!  https://goldengloberace.com/retro-sailing/

Quote

Retro Sailing - Sailing like it's 1968

They will be navigating with sextant on paper charts, without electronic instruments or autopilots. They will hand–write their logs, cook with kerosene and determine the weather for themselves. Only occasionally will they talk to loved ones and the outside world when long-range high frequency and ham radios allow

Don McIntyre

But I don't think Jeanne can see the Golden Globe Race tracker either, eh?  (weird exclusion zones)
https://goldengloberace.com/livetracker/

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28/11/2018  14:34 UTC, Lat/Lng: -38.90,-109.15,  Speed: 0.0 knots, Heading: 96 degrees (hove-to for the last four hours?)

https://www.windy.com/?-38.900,-109.150,5,m:cAlac7f

windy_2018Nov28c.jpg.608347617b6d9dbcdbf0cbf080a002ad.jpg

The high to her west (~600 miles to the left edge of the image below) moves rapidly ~1,200 nm. east in the next 24 hours, crossing her path at a rate of ~50 knots!  Not the wind speed but that's how fast the high "evolves" eastward.  Click the "Play" button (lower-left) on Windy to see it.

windy_2018Nov28a.thumb.jpg.6b95efdaf7e04a33c1487e965d89925b.jpg

windy_2018Nov28b.thumb.jpg.68b34c674c5098b57b35093ba044a47c.jpg

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50 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

28/11/2018  14:34 UTC, Lat/Lng: -38.90,-109.15,  Speed: 0.0 knots, Heading: 96 degrees (hove-to for the last four hours?)

Yes, in the last five hours she's traveled 2.4 nautical miles.  The wind has been about 12 kt from the south, with somewhat steep 7-ft waves from the west.  Looks like she's hove-to.  I hope it's that, and not gear failure.   The wind should have backed by this evening as that high moves east underneath her, and give her conditions where she will start sailing again.

I had to edit the polars I'm using for Nereida, to reflect how Jeanne sails (or heaves-to) when the wxrouter thinks she should be beating upwind.

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blog update: https://svnereida.com/blog/4937-day-57-wed-thurs-28-29-nov-2018-underway-again-being-thrown-around

Quote

I had to laugh at myself this morning - soon after dawn I went on deck to adjust Fred, my Hydrovane wind steering, to get us off the wind a bit more. We'd been making really slow speed overnight due to being too close to the wind, wanting to head S rather than SW, so I wanted to bear away to get better speed, now that the wind had backed further.

I had a real problem making the adjustment using the 'fine-tuning' line to the cockpit. I went aft to get closer and make the adjustment there - and suddenly realised that poor Fred was trying in vain to steer to the wind on the wrong side of the boat... I'd not adjusted it correctly earlier and, in effect, Nereida had been steering herself all night, close-hauled - as well-balanced boats are perfectly happy doing! The wind steering rudder, trying to steer us the wrong way, had been acting as a drag and slowing us down more... Once that situation was remedied, we picked up speed to around the 6 kt we should have been making earlier.... LOL!!
[...]
1900GMT (=1100PST) - end of Day 57. We made 72 n.ml.(DMG) measured in a straight line between the two points, over the 24 hr period since yesterday's 1900 GMT position. If I'd adjusted Fred correctly when we finally got underway at sunset, it would probably have been over 100ml...

 

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30/11/2018  10:51 UTC, Lat/Lng: -41.16,-106.92,  Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 119 degrees  (SE)

https://www.windy.com/?-41.160,-106.920,5,m:cwKadcW

The next high moving from west to east will be at (or slightly north of) her current position Sunday night, by which time she could be well south of there.  No significant wind holes or adverse wind direction forecast in her path for the next ten days.

windy_2018Nov30a.thumb.jpg.5e8ee87f0ec1e1b132fccf9cd8917d5d.jpg

One week from today, however, gale force winds are expected that look unavoidable, NW @ 38 knots gusting to 54 knots, waves W 24 feet @ 11 secs.

windy_2018Nov30b.thumb.jpg.21f2499a0e9a0daca063b02718e793f9.jpg

~1,800 nm. to Cape Horn on great circle route, ~14 days at 130 nm. per day.

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Here is the route that qtVlm plotted for her (using my questionable polars), showing the conditions on Dec 8:

1393084933_route11-30conditions12-6.thumb.jpg.912dd2227a1efa0a92b438ec50cac76d.jpg

I'm using the GFS GRIBs.  The strongest average wind is predicted to be 32 kts on Dec 5, but there will be a few lows moving over her between now and Dec 9.  She will definitely be getting big wind and waves, but at least through the next nine days no storm-force stuff.  Of course gale-force is bad enough...

 

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03/12/2018  07:02 UTC, Lat/Lng: -44.84,-100.05,  Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 123 degrees  (SE)

https://www.windy.com/?-44.840,-100.050,5,m:crNadow  (Wind: W 18 knots, Waves: W 9 feet @ 9 secs.)

Another high moves rapidly west to east over her path in the next 24 hours, bringing northerlies gusting to 35 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday..

windy_2018Dec03a.thumb.jpg.3f651f02477ae9d676915c7025924adc.jpg

windy_2018Dec03b.thumb.jpg.0a14bdbbdd603fd65041f128f734f7f8.jpg

windy_2018Dec03c.thumb.jpg.3c53c84de34897abf8a959b5727216c2.jpg

 

blog update: https://svnereida.com/blog/4940-day-60-sat-sun-1-2-dec-2018-sunny-blue-sky-but-not-for-long

Jeanne_2018Dec02.jpg.cd1112b9faef8eb85bb4b178c6f18dc4.jpg

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GFS model shows wind gusting to 43 knots on Wednesday at her position six hours ago, vs. wind gusting to 35 knots from ECMWF model in previous post:

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gfs,gust,2018-12-05-19,-45.844,-80.596,5,m:crNadow

windy_2018Dec03d.thumb.jpg.b2f96d0835c9781eba8cf63b8c0e7570.jpg

windy_2018Dec03e.jpg.336c6291d95f61262d54da80b5907bde.jpg

 

Jeanne's blog mentions that Susanne on 'Nehaj' is "lying to her Jordan Series Drogue, staying safe in 50kt winds. She'd deployed it five hours earlier and is likely to lie to it for a day in all. Good to be safe in big seas and strong wind....".  Jeanne has previously mentioned the same contingency plan for her own vessel Nereida.  Windy for ~1,400+ nm. more to Cape Horn!

Longue Route 2018 tracker: https://maps.sail.cloud/home/event/19

windy_2018Dec03f.thumb.png.aa3ac30778935f319820a57d0613f333.png

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Too far in the future to count on this 9-day forecast but good reason to stay well off to the west on this approach.  These two images (below) show significant difference in wind direction between the GFS and ECMWF weather models, with GFS showing treacherous lee shore conditions not evident on ECMWF.

ECMWF model: (wind gusts)

windy_2018Dec03_ECMWF.jpg.d2d4b27720027cb49e240d69c0a82334.jpg

GFS model: (wind gusts)

windy_2018Dec03_GFS.jpg.2eb7ef5dc0ff4120258c155169371548.jpg

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The two weather models are in closer agreement about a similar lee shore wind direction developing this Thursday afternoon, Dec. 6th (three days from now) and lasting through Saturday, before returning more northerly, with less of the lee shore component:
https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,2018-12-07-00,-45.844,-80.596,5,m:crNadow

 

This is Google Maps, 3D mode, showing Cape Horn and the underwater shelf/shallow area extending ~60 nm. south of "Isla Hornos, Chile, Cabo de Hornos, Región de Magallanes y de la Antártica Chilena, Chile": https://goo.gl/maps/hdxr7xspzX82

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cape+Horn+Monument/@-60.3844917,-69.7009178,383917a,35y,358.5h,51.26t/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0xbc4f6a398c36381d:0x3605fa061b7bec05!8m2!3d-55.9652002!4d-67.2256851

gmap_Cape_Horn_2018a.thumb.jpg.e9eebc59e000401457280d0794366a1f.jpg

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7 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

Jeanne's blog mentions that Susanne on 'Nehaj' is "lying to her Jordan Series Drogue, staying safe in 50kt winds. She'd deployed it five hours earlier and is likely to lie to it for a day in all. Good to be safe in big seas and strong wind....".  Jeanne has previously mentioned the same contingency plan for her own vessel Nereida

On the topic of drogues, I find it interesting how there seems to be such strong opinions pro and con.

In a recent talk (on Facebook) with two-time Around Alone sailor Robin Davies, Don McIntyre (who runs the current Golden Globe race and who’s done an Around Alone), spoke of storm tactics in the Southern Ocean.  Both were not in favour of drogues (or heaving to), primarily b/c of the effort and large loads in setting and retrieving.  (They both favour towing warps.)

I’m trying to imagine those two not-young women dealing with drogues in 40-50 kts...wow!  I’m impressed.

Here’s multiple circumnavigator James Baldwin, on his Pearson 28 Atom, testing a drogue in 30 kts or so.  It’s a couple of hundred feet long, with 82 cones for a 28’ boat.  (So Nereida’s and Nehaj’s would be longer and heavier.)  Took two people two hours to retrieve it using anchor windlass: 

 

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03/12/2018  22:06 UTC, Lat/Lng: -45.597,-98.596,  Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 127 degrees  (SE)

blog, Dec. 3: https://svnereida.com/blog/4941-day-61-sun-mon-2-3-dec-2018-some-sunshine-again-wonderful

Quote

Sunday 1:15pm LT Back to a cloudy sky - the blue sky and sunshine of this morning didn't last long. I was amazed at how quickly the edge of the cloud layer came over - bringing with it a gust to almost 30kt and a veering wind. Things have settled down now to a fairly steady 20-22kt wind, which backed to WSW, shortly after the big gust. Weather changes very rapidly down here - we're in the 'Roaring Forties' now...

1:40pm A mainly blue sky and sunshine again - wind WSW 24-25kt. 4m/13ft seas are throwing us around as they pass us, even though they're more on our starboard quarter than abeam.

https://www.windy.com/?-45.597,-98.596,5,m:cp8adrP  (Wind: W 13 knots, gusting W 20 knots, Waves: 11 feet @ 11 secs.)

ECMWF wind now - NOTICE!  Wind blowing from east to west at Cape Horn, briefly:
windy_2018Dec03g.jpg.8af4fb3de61a453c1d045a6518ccddfa.jpg

ECMWF gusts on Wednesday, 48 hours from now, from W to E:

windy_2018Dec03h.jpg.83ea1e7b6d0fb4c4748822dd3d7a646c.jpg

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Jeanne's Jordan Series Drogue weighs 32 lbs plus few more for bridle legs,  plus 15 lbs chain for tail end.  

7/16ths Amsteel Blue 12 strand Dyneema first section attached to 150 feet half inch double braid polyester. 

Cones are 6.4 oz Dacron sailcloth. 

Pic is drogue for yacht similar displacement in Malaysia. 

 

 

20181119_090127.jpg

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1 hour ago, jordanseriesdrogue said:

Jeanne's Jordan Series Drogue weighs 32 lbs plus few more for bridle legs,  plus 15 lbs chain for tail end.  

7/16ths Amsteel Blue 12 strand Dyneema first section attached to 150 feet half inch double braid polyester. 

Cones are 6.4 oz Dacron sailcloth. 

Pic is drogue for yacht similar displacement in Malaysia. 

 

 

20181119_090127.jpg

Thanks for the info, “Jordan” :-)

Any idea what the rough length comparison might be between a JSD and warps?  Just out of curiosity, for learning purposes, as I don’t know much at all about storm devices.  The question stems from being somewhat surprised to hear two experienced Southern Ocean sailors (as I mentioned in my post above) say they favoured warps over drogues, claiming easier retrieval.  

But I would imagine that a warp (or warps) would have to be substantially longer (and perhaps be heavier/thicker rope) to equal the drag of, say, 100’ of rope and cones...and also therefore be a challenge to set/retrieve (let alone store on board: bulky).  Just curious if anyone’s done any comparisons between what length drogue vs. warp produces the same reduction in boat speed.  Super long warps would seem really unwieldy...which makes me wonder why those two mentioned above prefer warps.

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04/12/2018  21:12 UTC, Lat/Lng: -45.873,-96.222,  Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 90 degrees  (E)

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,-45.873,-96.222,5,m:coHadsT  (Wind N 22 knots, gusting to 29 knots, Waves W 10 feet @ 9 secs.)

Midnight Tuesday (tonight!), GFS wind gusts to 47 knots for ~24 hours!:  ECMWF model peaks at 36 knots for same area and time.

windy_2018Dec04c.jpg.f31be35899d2c9b92ee551dcad95befb.jpg

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Around 00:00Z she apparently jibed and is going very slowly to the SSW.  I wonder if she did deploy the drogue?  GFS shows the average windspeed around 30 kts right now, with waves 12 ft, 9 seconds.  That can't be fun.

12-5-18.png.12340064fbf1ec1843c2faecf6ea4636.png

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