SloopJonB 12,565 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 It's currently blowing about 40 knots at my house. Plus, the hills around here stay in place. I'm sure glad I haven't been on board with her in similar winds. Major props. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, SloopJonB said: It's currently blowing about 40 knots at my house. Plus, the hills around here stay in place. I'm sure glad I haven't been on board with her in similar winds. Major props. Can’t believe they cancelled the Victoria-Horseshoe Bay ferry; a lot of the route is downwind! :-) :-) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Norse Horse 611 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Check out Sisters... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, Norse Horse said: Check out Sisters... (I was kidding, of course (re: ferry cancellation). I know it’s pumping out there...I was in the EC marine forecast site this morning, wondering who’s gonna come unmoored today in the nearby bay...) 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Re: the ferries, it ain't the "out there" that's the problem - it's the docking. Kind of like a high fall, it ain't the drop, it's the sudden stop. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Foiling Optimist 361 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 It's heavily out of the southeast so at least the Kits Point Zombie Fleet will be less affected than otherwise. Jeanne is so awesome. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Norse Horse 611 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 47 minutes ago, Foiling Optimist said: It's heavily out of the southeast so at least the Kits Point Zombie Fleet will be less affected than otherwise. Jeanne is so awesome. Look at the wind tonight. Those boats will get hammered onto Kits Beach. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=49.49;-124.42;8&l=wind-10m Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Norse Horse 611 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Jeanne's blog mentioned she had to change course near the horn to avoid another sailboat. Her most recent entry contemplates crossing the bank with the fine weather. https://svnereida.com/blog Thread drift...the historic White Rock pier has come apart in the storm today, it appears a sailboat bashed its way through. https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/12/20/rescue-operation-underway-at-least-one-person-trapped-on-white-rock-pier/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ishmael 10,568 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 hours ago, Norse Horse said: Look at the wind tonight. Those boats will get hammered onto Kits Beach. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=49.49;-124.42;8&l=wind-10m Is that a promise? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I was down at the boatyard at high tide a couple of hours ago - the ramps to the dock went UP from the land. The surface of the floats was above the level of the parking lot. The surf busting against the riprap was well over the tops of the boats on stands and the water was running ankle deep all over the parking lot (except around my boat ). Looked like the gas dock was in danger of tearing away - making ominous noises and flexing the pilings a foot or more - that's bundles of 5 pilings. Bruce, the owner went home - said he couldn't watch it. Could see huge busts of white over on Bowen Island - to be that big from this side it must have been hitting 30' high or more. Who needs to go to Tofino? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Foiling Optimist 361 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 If one of the kits point zombies gets blown over to West Van, the West Van Police will probably act like the Chilean navy when you go up the wrong channel and don't follow protocol. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Norse Horse 611 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 The wind has already switched up to the west to north in the northern gulf islands, very violently. Kits Beach will fell it soon, 40 plus knot gusts here, branches everywhere. . That liveaboard off Kits Point with the 8ft cockpit enclosure is doomed unless it moves to False Creek. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 One can but hope. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Ishmael said: 62 gusting 73 is impressive for around here. (Not that much on Bowen, but it was way more than I’ve ever seen here, in 9 years.) Meanwhile, somewhere in the Southern Ocean... :-) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Foiling Optimist 361 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I have a beloved Honda Jazz 50cc scooter which just rolled over 40,000km after 16 years of flitting about town. Today, parked on Heather near VGH, it got knocked over by the wind. That's never happened before though it's been knocked over by cars. Fortunately it's a Honda so you just have to wait a few minutes for the gas and oil to get back to wherever they are supposed to be and it starts up fine. Anyway, crazy weather. That's why retiree snowbirds like Jeanne head south for the winter while we working shmucks just hang on as best we can. Hey, the Longue route map https://maps.sail.cloud/home/event/19 hasn't updated Jeanne's position since yesterday. I assume it's glitching.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 8 hours ago, Foiling Optimist said: That's why retiree snowbirds like Jeanne head south for the winter while we working shmucks just hang on as best we can. Hey, the Longue route map https://maps.sail.cloud/home/event/19 hasn't updated Jeanne's position since yesterday. I assume it's glitching.... Let us not talk of those lucky enough to not have to work anymore for their money and who can also go south for the winter...I have an ocean going boat sitting at dock a mere 7 min walk from my house, chomping at the bit, surely telling me to take her out, to go south...instead of going on the ferry to visit (much-loved) in-laws for Xmas :-) :-) :-) Re: Longue Route tracker...I’ve forgotten totally about that “event”...gonna have to see how those sailors are doing. Have there been any capsizes or boat losses? I’m sort of assuming not, since like with Jeanne —and unlike the GGR (Golden Globe Race) sailors— these sailors have access to good comms (sat phones, routing, etc.) to get good wx info for “Le Grand Sud” (as the French call the Southern Ocean, or anywhere below the Great Capes” anyway). 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Foiling Optimist 361 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 It's updated now, she's halfway to the Falklands. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ishmael 10,568 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 21 hours ago, SloopJonB said: One can but hope. Not sure if folks have seen this, but the White Rock pier was damaged, as were a few boats. Looks ugly. https://globalnews.ca/video/4785699/b-c-s-south-coast-digs-out-from-windstorm Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 That pier looked like a boat got loose and beat it apart. Didn't hear of any trash blowing ashore on Sunset beach. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ishmael 10,568 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 36 minutes ago, SloopJonB said: That pier looked like a boat got loose and beat it apart. Didn't hear of any trash blowing ashore on Sunset beach. I was out checking our boat today, only issue was the life ring got blown out of its bracket and was floating beside the boat. Bill the liveaboard said he saw 43 knots in the marina, other side of Tsehum Harbour got gusts up to 62. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Prairie Boater 14 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Was the 62 knots on the south or north side of Tsehum Harbour? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Has been two days of slow going. That may be changing in the next few hours. https://www.windy.com/?-54.275,-62.426,8,m:8AaeqN (Wind NW 22 knots gusting to 28 knots, Waves W 8 feet @ 7 secs.) Potentially gusting to 39 knots ~4 hours from now, first from NW then from SW. Clearing ~6 hours later: (Pacific time shown) yesterday's blog update: Day 79 Thurs-Fri 20-21 Dec 2018 A mix of light winds, headwinds and good wind on the way to the Falklands 21 December 2018 23:44 https://svnereida.com/blog/4959-day-79-thurs-fri-20-21-dec-2018-a-mix-of-light-winds-headwinds-and-good-wind-on-the-way-to-the-falklands Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ishmael 10,568 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Prairie Boater said: Was the 62 knots on the south or north side of Tsehum Harbour? South, Van Isle side. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sail4beer 3,413 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Thanks for all the updates Jud and Proa! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Day 82 Sun-Mon 23-24 Dec 2018 Season's Greetings from Nereida to everyone!| Merry Christmas! / Feliz Navidad! 24 December 2018 20:02 https://svnereida.com/blog/4962-day-82-sun-mon-23-24-dec-2018-season-s-greetings-from-nereida-to-everyone-merry-christmas-feliz-navidad Jeanne is ~90 nm. east of Stanley, east end of the Falkland Islands, in its lee: https://www.windy.com/?-51.737,-56.909,8,m:ceFaeCR (Wind W 9 knots gusting to 17 knots, Waves W 7 feet @ 9 secs.) P.S. Southerly passing through in next 24 hours? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 https://www.windy.com/?-51.286,-54.778,7,m:cfmaeEH (Wind NE 11 knots gusting to 19 knots, Waves SW 7 feet @ 9 secs.) She'll soon have SW winds gusting to 35 knots, shifting to westerly overnight Tuesday. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 She is 154 nm. ENE of Stanley and has caught the SW wind, now doing "5.8 knots" for the last 3+ hours, Heading: 62 degrees (ENE). https://www.windy.com/?-51.155,-56.646,7,m:cfMaeFI (Wind SW 24 knots gusting to 35 knots, Waves SW 9 feet @ 7 secs.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Jeanne is 215 nm. NE of Stanley, heading north (357 degrees) at 5.8 knots. https://www.windy.com/?-51.502,-52.976,6,m:cg7aeHC (Wind W 20 knots gusting to 24 knots, Waves SW 8 feet @ 8 secs.) West wind clocks north and gets light in the next 24 hours. Strong northerly over the Falklands on Friday moves east and dominates her route until midday Sunday when westerlies return. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 The dolphins Jeanne wants identified are Peale's Dolphins... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peale's_dolphin Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ishmael 10,568 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 3 hours ago, Cisco said: The dolphins Jeanne wants identified are Peale's Dolphins... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peale's_dolphin Cool. What's the best way to cook them? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Training Wheels 71 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 They taste like chicken. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Be careful what you say.... he is watching you.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 10 hours ago, Training Wheels said: They taste like chicken. Do you remember the scene in “The Brendan Voyage” where Trondur, the Faroe Island Viking crewmember, “fishes” for seagulls for food for the crew? Remarkable! I think they even said they taste like chicken, well boiled and seasoned :-) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Training Wheels 71 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I have a deal. I don’t eat shark, they don’t eat me. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 210 nm. NE of Stanley, Falkland Islands... at wind arrow below. https://www.windy.com/?-51.937,-57.173,6,m:ciQaeFQ (Wind SE 19 knots gusting to 26 knots, Waves N 6 feet @ 3 secs.) Wind clocking steadily around in the next 24 hours from SE to S to W to light NW, then strengthening Saturday N 27 knots gusting to 38 knots, Waves NW 12 feet @ 8 secs. blog: https://svnereida.com/blog/4965-day-85-wed-thurs-26-27-dec-2018-waiting-for-low-pressure-system-to-pass-more-to-come Day 85 Wed-Thurs 26-27 Dec 2018 Waiting for Low pressure system to pass - more to come... 27 December 2018 22:47 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Jeanne has been slowly moving west for ~19 hours... https://www.windy.com/?-48.180,-52.530,5,m:ckQaeHB (Wind N 22 knots gusting to 29 knots, Waves NW 7 feet @ 6 secs.) Will be gusty all day today, N 26 knots gusting to 36 knots. Even stronger winds are forecast through the area on Tuesday. (Pacific time, ECMWF Wind gusts) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Jeanne is moving NE again after drifting west for two days (~25 miles) to avoid heavy weather. https://www.windy.com/?-47.210,-50.440,5,m:cmuaeK5 (Wind NW 16 knots gusting to 20 knots, Waves NW 7 feet @ 8 secs.) Wind is shifting north and building all day and through the night, gusting to 30 knots and more by 3:00 pm Pacific time (21:00 UTC) Monday. Early morning Tuesday (0400 Pacific, 12:00 UTC), winds peak at 30 knots gusting to 41 knots. waves NW 11 feet @ 7 secs. Happy New Year! She is ~400 nm. NE of Stanley, Falkland Islands. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 OK, what's going on now??? This doesn't look good. The wind should be coming from the NNW, and I see no WX-related reasons for Jeanne to be turning around. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Foiling Optimist 361 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 There was a bit on her on the CBC British Columbia radio news this morning, about how she'd rounded the Horn etc. I was like, "That was so ten days ago". Nice though. Hopefully they will have a few more updates as she progresses. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Her last blog says this: Quote Weather ahead not looking good - likely to have to heave to again shortly for 2-3 days to avoid a nasty big Low expected in the New Year on my path. And yes, I do see a nasty low-pressure system moving over her route about three days from now. So perhaps this is all part of her plan. It seems to me that she needs to make good speed towards Good Hope when she can though. All this waiting around makes her a sitting duck, and there's always going to be a new low moving through. Perhaps I wouldn't be so aggressive if I were sailing her boat, rather than sitting in my comfy chair. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 13 hours ago, valis said: It seems to me that she needs to make good speed towards Good Hope when she can though. All this waiting around makes her a sitting duck, and there's always going to be a new low moving through. Yes. She is in a convergence zone between west winds from the Pacific and north winds from Brazil. Sailing only down wind doesn't get her out of the area. Easy to say... https://www.windy.com/?-47.535,-50.142,5,m:clUaeLB (Wind W 21 knots gusting to 30 knots, Waves NW 10 feet @ 8 secs.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Norse Horse 611 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I guess she is preserving her rig. She may see this as the last shot at this record. Thx Foiling for the story heads up. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sailor-record-attempt-1.4960631 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 She does seem to spend rather a lot of time hove to. As I think I mentioned before rule numero uno down there is to get north as quick as you can...... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Jeanne's coping strategy for heavy weather might be inspired a little by the sea birds she so often observes around her. It worked at Cape Horn and is still working for her now. Patience pays off! ~17 nm. elapsed over the last two days (47 hours): https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,-46.892,-49.873,6,m:cm0aeL1 (Wind W 9 knots gusting to 14 knots, Waves W 8 feet @ 8 secs.) She may be sitting in a wind hole later today until light easterly wind fills in this evening, then builds and clocks S and SW. Tomorrow's extreme wind should pass to the SE before she gets there. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 She has about 9250 miles to go to Stewart Island if she stays in 45*S........ Autumnal equinoctial gales can kick in by mid March..... 120 miles a day will take her about 77 days.... or 21st March... I would be keeping the boat moving......... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 hours ago, Cisco said: She has about 9250 miles to go to Stewart Island if she stays in 45*S........ Autumnal equinoctial gales can kick in by mid March..... 120 miles a day will take her about 77 days.... or 21st March... I would be keeping the boat moving......... That’s a telling “statistic”. Those equinoctial dates definitely make one think about where you want or don’t want to be at those times! I haven’t been following her daily averages, but I have the impression (only) that she can generally better 120 miles a day (assuming she keeps moving). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 hours ago, Cisco said: She has about 9250 miles to go to Stewart Island if she stays in 45*S........ Autumnal equinoctial gales can kick in by mid March..... 120 miles a day will take her about 77 days.... or 21st March... I would be keeping the boat moving......... Yeah, and super slow running DDW is hard to watch. But she has 82 knots of wind in her downwind path, what else can she do? Very gentle where she is now and this storm will soon move on to the SE. She has traveled ~57 miles since my last report, ~21 hours ago. https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,-45.997,-49.448,5,m:couaeMI (Wind SW 16 knots gusting to 22 knots, Waves S 7 feet @ 8 secs.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I think I may have been mildly misunderstood... I was only pointing out the ( least ) distance she has to cover before she gets clear of the Southern Ocean and the time she has to do it in . As I think I have mentioned before the best thing when under the lee of South America in those lats is to get north as quick as you can - even if it means making a bit of westing - up into the high 30's and then turn right. As we have just seen some pretty nasty stuff - I think 950mb can be called 'nasty' - can appear from nowhere out from the Patagonian coast in the deep South Atlantic... I agree with Vito Dumas..... the southern Indian Ocean is nastier than the lower part of the South Pacific ..... and from what I have seen the bottom of the South Atlantic is nastier than the pair of them put together.... He put it down to the proximity of the land.... the weather systems are 'purer' and much more predictable in the South Pacific...... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheDragon 898 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Don't forget she has done this successfully once before and at least one other attempt, so she has a pretty good handle on what she needs to do. Not to discourage thinking aloud about what she needs to do! So far she has managed the theoretically hardest part of getting around the horn in one piece, something she failed at at least once before. She is patient and has pretty good weather information, advice, and routing, but agreed, getting to south of Australia too late in the season will be a problem. I met Jeanne in Simonstown several years ago after one of her failed attempts, and she is very impressive. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Jeanne has been sailing north at "5.8 knots" or better for ~22 hours (~128 nm. in 22 hours = 5.8 knot average): https://www.windy.com/?-43.819,-47.461,5,m:cr0aeP8 (Wind SW 21 knots gusting to 36 knots, Waves SW 12 feet @ 8 secs.) Looks like she'll be able to hold this course north to 40 degrees latitude if she wants, where the weather ahead looks calmer, east of where she is now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Geeze - looks like she knows what she's doing. Whooda thunkit. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 She's heaving-to again, to avoid being hammered by a low that will pass over her current position on Tuesday (three days from now), with the worst of it about 150 NM to the NE of the center. Looking at the forecast, I agree with her blog report that she won't be able to get north of the bad stuff since the wind will be heading her as the low approaches. If she pushed on one way or another she would end up in the "dangerous semicircle" of the low. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I'm not sure that I would sit and let a 986 low pass over the top of me thereabouts. But then what would I know....... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Cisco said: I'm not sure that I would sit and let a 986 low pass over the top of me thereabouts. But then what would I know....... Perhaps she will let the headwinds blow her south as the low approaches. I'd rather not be on the north side of that low... (I just checked her track. She's drifting SSW) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I'm not sure what it is about the Pampas but when that air comes over the Andes seriously strange things happen to it as it crosses the coast... which is why that is such a crap bit of ocean.... from southern Brazil on south. Which is why I am a great believer in keeping in towards the land until well north.... you also get the benefit of the Falklands current. Everyone to their own.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Panoramix 1,776 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I never thought about this but starting a RTW is probably easier starting from Europe as you spend less time in the Southern bit of the south Atlantic. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 She has retreated far enough SW (a long way!) that she'll be on the edge of the big blow passing from NW to SE when it peaks Tuesday morning at 3:00 AM Pacific (10:00 UTC), eight hours from now, with Wind S 24 knots gusting to 35 knots, Waves SE 9 feet @ 7 secs. https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,-43.945,-37.661,5,m:csSaeRs (Wind E 18 knots gusting to 30 knots, Waves E 7 feet @ 7 secs.) Next big blow passing through is on Friday. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Jeanne is sailing north again, in the wake of that low she dodged. It looks like she's going to have a hard time making any real progress over the next several days though, as a series of highs (or ridges) moves through. By this time tomorrow she will be in very light winds, turning to strong north winds later in the day. She should be able to go N or NNW on Thursday, but it's a pretty mixed-up wind pattern and if she can't break free to the north she will again be trapped in a big no-wind high on Saturday. If she aims for a due-east course she may have better luck, but it's still a tough routing problem. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, valis said: Jeanne is sailing north again, in the wake of that low she dodged. It looks like she's going to have a hard time making any real progress over the next several days though, as a series of highs (or ridges) moves through. By this time tomorrow she will be in very light winds, turning to strong north winds later in the day. She should be able to go N or NNW on Thursday, but it's a pretty mixed-up wind pattern and if she can't break free to the north she will again be trapped in a big no-wind high on Saturday. If she aims for a due-east course she may have better luck, but it's still a tough routing problem. I find this quite interesting and enlightening —I had no idea there could be so many potential routing issues (down there) with regard to weather. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Veeger 471 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Normally.... I'd be inclined to make a negative comment about all this 'storm dodging' she's doing. I sort of get it but she appears very dependent on frequent, updated wx forecasts. The good news is that they are available and it makes sense to utilize the information. The bad news is that I believe the real reason it's so important on this trip comes from a couple factors that may not have otherwise been considerations. I've been concerned about her vang repairs (i.e. lashings) for her boom. She absolutely NEEDS to nurse that and dodging storms is thus essential. Second, at her age, undertaking another attempt if this one goes awry is probably not too likely. Better to be successful even if it takes longer and there's no penalty for taking longer. I also get the sense that the boat may be less of a spring chicken overall as well and perhaps not the best suited in overall condition (no judgement intended on the actual design---yet). I wish her well and have no real desire to try to undertake this type of voyage. Her dedication to it and her obvious love for sailing long passages in tough conditions are enough reason to give her respect. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 East it is. I see no other option for the next few days. She finally got the genoa re-rigged and hoisted (and has been using it), but she's already worrying about another incoming low: Quote The bad news is that the next Low is only two days later - and is beginning to look too threatening to ignore. I thought I'd be able to head N as the present Low passes on and get far enough away not to be affected by the next Low but there are light winds in between the two systems so not enough wind to help us to escape N. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 hours ago, Veeger said: Normally.... I'd be inclined to make a negative comment about all this 'storm dodging' she's doing. I sort of get it but she appears very dependent on frequent, updated wx forecasts. The good news is that they are available and it makes sense to utilize the information. The bad news is that I believe the real reason it's so important on this trip comes from a couple factors that may not have otherwise been considerations. I've been concerned about her vang repairs (i.e. lashings) for her boom. She absolutely NEEDS to nurse that and dodging storms is thus essential. Second, at her age, undertaking another attempt if this one goes awry is probably not too likely. ...... Re-visiting her boom and vang issues makes me have a rethink about her aversion to wind.... not only the vang/kicker is/was blind riveted but also the gooseneck... first pic.... Hopefully that is just a preventive lashing and that hasn't also failed.... My boat seems to have the same fittings but each is secured with 8 hex headed set screws..... That said she could just junk the kicker and rig a tackle as a traditional vang.... there is a fitting at the base of the mast that will take a shackle that will take a block...... same same mine in the following pic...... Maybe those blind rivets are considered ok for 'weekend use' but that boat has done 3(?) high lat circumnavigations.. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Panoramix 1,776 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I am not so sure that she should be so cautious, we are already past the solstice and she has a long way to go till exiting the Southern oceans. May be she should move at a reduced pace in gale winds (storm jib alone) instead of stopping. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Jeanne is ~750 nm. NE of Stanley, Falkland Islands. https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,-42.710,-45.073,5,m:ctXaeT2 (Wind N 18 knots gusting to 25 knots, Waves N 8 feet @ 8 secs.) Instead of sitting and drifting south, it looks like she could be sailing east now, aiming to stay west/north/behind the low passing through on Friday... SW wind forecast Thursday morning will make it her favored downwind run, peak seas of 8' to 9'. These conditions are not severe. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Raz'r 5,180 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just a guess, that vang and possibly gooseneck failure is putting the whole thing at risk. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Panoramix said: I am not so sure that she should be so cautious, we are already past the solstice and she has a long way to go till exiting the Southern oceans. May be she should move at a reduced pace in gale winds (storm jib alone) instead of stopping. My thoughts also.... maybe getting too much weather info.... no future in stressing out on lows that are still in Uruguay's territorial waters.... she needs to get north and tuck in under the highs..... The gooseneck and vang would be an issue but in any serious weather I tended to run under storm jib alone... makes life a lot simpler and less stressful... One thing I had never heard of until a few days ago ( on the GGR site ) was the idea of temperate latitude lows having 'dangerous semicircles'. That is a TRS thing.... if you sail in the high 30's or the 40's ( southern hemisphere ) having a low to your SW and finding yourself experiencing freshening northerlies is the norm. Beats being south of the low and copping an easterly gale with a short steep sea over a swly swell.... Someone mentioned having met Jeanne in Simonstown. I met her a few times in the Falklands in 2011..... she had her ideas... I had mine... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SloopJonB 12,565 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Panoramix said: I am not so sure that she should be so cautious, we are already past the solstice and she has a long way to go till exiting the Southern oceans. May be she should move at a reduced pace in gale winds (storm jib alone) instead of stopping. She's nearing 80 FFS. I doubt she wants to deal with any sort of seriously heavy weather. She knows more about it than most of us here. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Panoramix 1,776 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 31 minutes ago, SloopJonB said: She's nearing 80 FFS. I doubt she wants to deal with any sort of seriously heavy weather. She knows more about it than most of us here. That's why I said may be... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, SloopJonB said: She's nearing 80 FFS. I doubt she wants to deal with any sort of seriously heavy weather. She knows more about it than most of us here. 'nearing 80' my left rollock............ She is 76 and a few months.... so she is in her mid 70's If one does not want to deal with heavy weather one does not sail in the mid forties... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 https://www.windy.com/?-42.608,-43.935,5,m:ct7aeVV (Wind S 22 knots gusting to 29 knots, Waves 7 feet @ 8 secs.) Friday's low is a fizzle that develops later to the east, out of range for Jeanne. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Day 100 Thurs-Fri 10-11 Jan 2019 One hundred days at sea.... Another problem fixed... By Jeanne Socrates , on 11 January 2019 20:24 Quote Went to the mast to have a look at a problem with the lowest mainsail batten - the complete slide has pulled out of the mast track... [...] Had to lower main and remove slides below that one - relieved to find only two other slides below. Couldn't remove ring from track end-stop pin, however hard I tried - but then found the other end of the pin had its ring missing...! Good news, since at least that meant I could remove it and the end-stop and deal with the three slides, but could well have been bad news if the pin had come away by itself... all the sail slides would have slid out and I'd have lost the end stop overboard, no doubt!! Track is damaged where batten end slide sits just now - expecting it to come out again if sail 'slatting' a lot in light winds - will have to try to avoid that but difficult with so much swell always. ~903 nm. NE of Stanley, Falkland Islands - 100 days at sea. https://www.windy.com/?-46.423,-32.915,5,m:cvCae0k (Wind S 13 knots gusting to 20 knots, Waves W 6 feet @ 8 secs.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Good to see her following the 'rule of 1020'... COURSE: 062T SPEED: 7.9kt WIND_SPEED: 22kt WIND_DIR: WNW SWELL_DIR: NW SWELL_HT: 2.5m CLOUDS: 40% BARO: 1018.7hPa Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jud - s/v Sputnik 1,427 Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 hours ago, Cisco said: Good to see her following the 'rule of 1020'... COURSE: 062T SPEED: 7.9kt WIND_SPEED: 22kt WIND_DIR: WNW SWELL_DIR: NW SWELL_HT: 2.5m CLOUDS: 40% BARO: 1018.7hPa Had to go look that up! Hasn’t stuck in my head yet. (Your post above, #362, and Valis’s, following that.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ProaSailor 674 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Jeanne is 1,201 nm. NE of Stanley, Falkland Islands. She has reached latitude S39 near the center of a high, with light air to her north, so she might want to head more east than north at this point? (as indicated by the 1020 hPa isobar) https://www.windy.com/?-35.138,-17.314,4,m:czrafcT (Wind W 15 knots gusting to 20 knots, Waves W 5 feet @ 7 secs.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Well, she's been moving along nicely! Her speed over the last three reports has been about 7.2 kts (not the 7.8 reported), but that's still great. I think she will be slowing down over the next 24 hours as the lighter air above the low moves over her. Here is her current position, and where she might be in 24-hours, about 150 miles to the ENE (today's WX shown). (Proa, I agree with you that due east is a better course for a while.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 But heading due east also has potential issues. Here is the WX in three days, and her position if she averages 150-mile days. Perhaps a bit to the north isn't such a bad idea, although tomorrow she may be in a parking lot: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Stay in the middle of the road.... keep the wind but don't be tempted to go south looking for more... it will turn up soon enough.... She was asking yesterday about a planet.. 'Saw very bright light low down in the E - a ship? But decided it was a planet maybe...? Kept an eye on it - it was just above the horizon and not moving. Looked just like a bright top light on the mast of a boat very close by - but no dark shape below it - turned on radar just to confirm! Eventually relaxed - but was difficult - so very bright and looked to be so close! Can someone ID the planet? Not Venus because yellow in colour and too bright for Mars, I think - Saturn or Jupiter?' Venus is currently rising in 40S at about 0300 local sort of time ( hard to know what time she is keeping v/v her long but this should be close enough ). Bearing ESE.... Jupiter rises about 15 minutes later a bit further to the right..... bright but nowhere near as bright as Venus. Edit.. she may already have this info or maybe someone could pass it on..... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 My time was a bit out there.... confused as I was by local summertime.... but the general thingo stands... Now if a rising venus confused her ( not the first time that has happened ) someone should alert her to this weekend's lunar eclipse https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/lunar/2019-january-21 which should be quite spectacular from her location... First lunar eclipse I ever saw was down there... on passage southern Brasil to the Cape in about 1972.... very impressive..... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On one trip, a crewmember was getting pretty worried about an approaching vessel. It turned out to be Mars. Another time we spotted a big cruise ship to the east. We could see the well-lit upper and lower decks, strings of lights, everything. But it wasn't showing up on AIS. It wasn't aiming for us, and seemed to be several miles off, but the no-AIS thing had us puzzled. Until a few minutes later when the view shifted and the Moon rise above the low clouds. The moon on the horizon seen through the gaps in the clouds had really done a good job of mimicking a brightly-lit cruise ship. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It seems she is convinced she is looking at Jupiter.... maybe someone could put her right.......? Jupiter is rising 12 minutes after Venus and is nowhere near as bright. https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/night/argentina/buenos-aires ( note... BA is on summer time... ) Anyway it is all in the nautical almanac... she does carry an almanac? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cisco 221 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ho Hum.... hove to again.... cos ... '5pm Hove to - received two separate warnings of gusts to 40-50kt' Not sure why she is fixated on the 'gusts'.... forecasts are for 'wind' of 20~30 kts..... perfect downwind sort of a breeze.... if worried about the boom or vang just run under headsail...... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
valis 641 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 But for now, downwind isn't a good place to go seeing how that low-pres is moving over the next 12 hours. Even being hove-to, she's drifting towards the strongest wind in that low. But in 24 hours she should have good downwind sailing conditions. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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