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Sydney to Hobart 2019


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2 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Yes best numbers and mode right now. And whilst I can't tell if updates are on equal time ATM it looks like BJ are only 200 metres behind Oats. But going 3-4 knots faster. It looks like a battle of the Skinny's and if one of them wins this race it may spark the end of the rest to the Scrapyard ? Proving skinny is king as an all rounder when kept up to date with latest thinking. Would be sad to see 2 x 100's in OZ instead of 5.. Just sayin......

Long way to go... but i’m hearing you. 

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Catching-up in the AM here in Florida, as usual Ricko squeals like a school girl every year, with a boat load of pros on-board why does he make every call and looks around everywhere except driving the boat? I would bet WOXI would be a lot faster if he would shut-up and drive the boat, making requests here and there on occasion. You would think IM would punch him in the mouth when he is blowing his ear drum out.

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And we have a new leader. The Jack Of Spades followed by the Joker.. Go Black.... The Oats gybe does not compute? I wonder if they were forced? Problem? I can't see a reason to head West right now..? Juan Villa may have fallen overboard??? :D

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4 minutes ago, LionIsland said:

I’ll bite ‘cause I’m an idiot- what karma would that be? 

You'd have to be a fan of Karma and to have an intimate understanding of Oats and Mark Richards to understand this one notwithstanding it was said "Light Heartedly" 

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7 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Info too

 

The Indian is starting to rumble out wide great race

Something is going to happen. Not sure where the fuck Oats is headed going backwards in an almost SE direction? Headed towards Mystery Bay wherever that is?

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5 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Something is going to happen. Not sure where the fuck Oats is headed going backwards in an almost SE direction? 

Perhaps retiring because of something but very strange.
Weather and/or waves aren't rough.

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4 minutes ago, Schakel said:

Perhaps retiring because of something but very strange.
Weather and/or waves aren't rough.

Going 2.4 Knots something not right? A jammed halyard? Almost running dead down wind which could suggest something? Comanche fastest boat in fleet once again. Stan has stuck thick

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Just now, terrafirma said:

Going 2.4 Knots something not right? A jammed halyard? Almost running dead down wind which could suggest something?

Caught in currents. When in cruising mode they would have had the engine started.
It's midnight over there.

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2 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Going 2.4 Knots something not right? A jammed halyard? Almost running dead down wind which could suggest something? Comanche fastest boat in fleet once again. Stan has stuck thick

Yeah the big around the outside suck it up and have faith maneuver 

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Just now, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Gotta be something wrong on Oats

Nothing on their facebook site.
Slowest of the 100's with 2.3 knots
My guess was very light winds and caught in currents.

Infotrack lying closest doing 5.8 knots.
Further east Black Jack 7.7 Knots.
Scallywag 11.4
Fartest east Comanche 11.2

Fingers crossed.

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RACE UPDATE | 0000hrs 27 December 2019

 

 

 After a picture-perfect start with blue skies and a north-easterly breeze, the fleet was able to make good time in the first leg of the race heading south from Sydney Heads.

InfoTrack made the initial move in the front running pack being the first yacht to make it in to open water, but soon after were reeled back in and overtaken by the current race record holder Comanche. 

As yachts have made their way further down the coast and pass Batemans Bay, the stronger breezes from earlier in the day have subsided with the pace of the fleet slowing dramatically. 

In the race for overall victory, many yachts have shuffled through the top placings of the leader board with the current weather conditions favouring the 40-foot range of yachts. The full list of current standing across all divisions can be found on the Standings page HERE.

The race suffered two early retirees as yachts made their way south from Sydney Harbour. The current list of retirements are as follows (all crew are safe and well):

  • Faster Forward - Steering problems
  • Hollywood Boulevard - Broken rudder

Stay locked on rolexsydneyhobart.com to keep up to date with the Race Tracker, standings, photos and video throughout the race. Fans, participants and media are encouraged to follow the race on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter as well as tag their Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race content with the official hashtag #RolexSydneyHobart on all social media platforms.

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Just now, SteveJH said:

It looks like there is an angry pack of 60-70 footers not very far behind the 100 footers.

This picture says it all.
1181775076_SydneyHobartwindytracker.PNG.906217511ca111a80f89041069611d2d.PNG

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Just now, The Dark Knight said:

could lightening strike twice? ;)

they have no doubt tried lightening, but with ll that surgery perhaps they got Botox and filler overdose? Lightning might strike twice, or perhaps they found an especially skilled sunfish? 

 

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2 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

Its most likey the one with the helicopter that keeps knocking them off the air... 

From the two attachments I posted, it is 100% clear that Scally, BJ and C are on the AIS chart... 

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Take a look at the tracker, the AIS is not their biggest problem, about to be passed by the 60' fleet currently going 2X as fast while they are at 3.7 kts in the hole. 

Probably wishing that they had not gybed West earlier. 

 

image.png.14da3d85d09d6e4f026a1ea236f7117c.png

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Still not looking good for WOXI
Even in comparison with the 60 and 70 footers who are aproaching.

Comanche 19kn

BJ 14kn 

SW 13kn

WOXI 4kn


Naval 8

Alive 9

URM 9

Maserati 10

396821549_SydneyHobartwindytracker2.PNG.d1a4fbdf94d93950f925d0c9d3948c84.PNG

 

 

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Indian up to 19kts...scally at 12 and Oats has the 60 footers breathing down her neck, not looking great for Ricco but there is lots of track left.

@terrafirma, it’s been 5 years, we all know Comanche was never designed for S2H, she is a record setting machine and upwards of 5kts faster than the skinny boats when the breeze comes on. Cutting her up would be a damn shame. The real question I would be asking the Oats/BJ teams are what would they design if given a clean slate in 2020?

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4 hours ago, terrafirma said:

you have to wonder what the design brief was?

Comanche was built to be a record breaker...meaning reaching across oceans at 30 knots...which they were doing yesterday.  Keep in mind Comanche is the current S2H record holder.  She was not designed to drift up the river like WOXI and BJ.

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4 hours ago, terrafirma said:

This looks like an Oats race now. BUT....If Karma is true then something will happen to them..? It looks impossible for Comanche now they are that slow in these conditions you have to wonder what the design brief was? Black Jack deserve a win but for some reason they always fail to deliver? There is no way Scallywag can win they are too consistently "BAD" for it to happen. But if someone opens Pandora's box none of this could be true for this race. Who's going to pick it.....????? :D

Seems as though Pandora stepped in

How only a few hours, change everything. 

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47 minutes ago, samc99us said:

Anyone know what the story with the VO70’s is? Down to 1 this year...I know Wizard is stateside or in Europe?

Wizard is checking ocean races off the owners' list.  They're back in the Caribbean ATM\ then doing Transpac Tahiti with the VO70 Pyewacket.

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26 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

looks like nobody on WOXI is even WATCHING their AIS either... the 60's 3 miles away are passing them at 2x speed and they are headed south at 5 Kts, instead of  coming a few miles East into the breeze

image.png.b2c722b22985e09852e0cea0ad241649.png

After 13 hours of racing naval is ahead of WOXI.
1395241219_13hoursracingS2H.PNG.aa4bfa05ad5a3de6c190ad1e8a376f32.PNG

 

7 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

Oats 17 miles behind Indian, but still a lot of tricky stuff ahead - so opportunities.

This looks very tricky, place your bets.
1563533744_13hoursracingS2H2.PNG.cea47ae95a8639f1e018788d31ac6d36.PNG

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As noted a lot of hard navigating and some local knowledge & drifting tactics yet to come.

So far, the Navigation and "ocean sailing" has to go to Stan and crew. 

They set up a conservative start, went outside from the Heads, and ran it  down to their gybe, subsequently have had faster  & deeper sailing , and presuming that Windy has any relation to reality, look positioned to thread the gap between the holes. 

Seeing WOXI stubbornly holding inshore, getting passed by boats 2/3 the length only 3 miles to the East, causes you to wonder if they have a special insight or just have bad choices.

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8 minutes ago, Swimsailor said:

Comanche was built to be a record breaker...meaning reaching across oceans at 30 knots...which they were doing yesterday.  Keep in mind Comanche is the current S2H record holder.  She was not designed to drift up the river like WOXI and BJ.

Before she became another Aussie boat, she was as human powered as possible and actually participated in the classics and sailed across the Atlantic and Pacific.

 

A lot of the Aussie 100fters are basically big fish in small pond duck queens. 

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Amazing what Comanche is able to do right now.  Stan Honey is some kind of wizard.  I like Black Jack purely because she looks so damn good.  But I know a good guy on WOXI so I feel bad they're getting so stuffed right now.  Exciting race so far!

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Peter Isler did a prerace forecast on Facebook yesterday that showed a route very similar to Comanche's based on the GFS model.

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34 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

It looks like they could use a bit more wind. I'll see if I can send cyclone Sarai to Bass Strait. Anyone likes to come for a sail today?

Screenshot_20191227-042653.thumb.png.7311f576fe80f2759128cc806047e98d.png

Thanks, But no thanks:D

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1812899857_SydneyHobartwindytracker3.PNG.de5880bb500690402cb3cd3f86acbe92.PNG
Guess the Oatley family had a better scenario in mind.
Sometimes, too much competition isn't really family like.
Any one knowing more about what slowed them down?
Their own site doesn't give the answer.
https://www.wildoatsxi.com.au/
Nor their facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/wildoatsXI/

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Bit of a nerve shredding night for those boys out there. Can’t see the wind. Following your competition by AIS only, sail changing in and out with the breeze, gybing on a prayer hoping this will be the last one to shoot you off and into the next system, hoping that it’s not a shift that sends the back markers right around you.
 

Brilliant tactical and luck match

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53 minutes ago, Schakel said:

Guess the Oatley family had a better scenario in mind.
Sometimes, too much competition isn't really family like.
Any one knowing more about what slowed them down?

I think they're getting beat fair and square.  Which is as it should be.

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54 minutes ago, samc99us said:

 What are the odds on the TP’s jumping the front to stay in essentially the same band as the leaders?

Given the prediction was that the fleet would park, (as it has) the odds were very good that the slower boats would catch up. And if they were able to see the leaders relative speeds, they could take a lesson via AIS.  

Question is who traverses the ridge fastest on the "restart"... 

 

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It seems that all the mods done to WOXI and Blackjack have done nothing to improve their light weather speed. It would appear, especially for WOXI who in her chase to match Comanche, has thrown her light wind speed advantage out the window.

If one was to believe the Windy forecast west looks the way to go in a few hours.

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Dave Kellett has an article in the January 2020 issue of Seahorse describing reasons for using HF to check-in during this race. One statement about not using technology that removes static because it may "weaken" signals and wanting to have the best possible reception seemed a bit contradictory, but overall, it was a good read, especially in light of what was discussed here. Moreover, he acknowledged the emerging role of newer technologies... "Certainly, in Bass Straight we still need the sat phones as a back-up for HF". Others may argue it should be the other way around, but it is their show, as are the responsibilities that come with running the event.

Now back to the race in progress...

 

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59 minutes ago, Varan said:

Dave Kellett has an article in the January 2020 issue of Seahorse describing reasons for using HF to check-in during this race. One statement about not using technology that removes static because it may "weaken" signals and wanting to have the best possible reception seemed a bit contradictory, but overall, it was a good read, especially in light of what was discussed here. Moreover, he acknowledged the emerging role of newer technologies... "Certainly, in Bass Straight we still need the sat phones as a back-up for HF". Others may argue it should be the other way around, but it is their show, as are the responsibilities that come with running the event.

Now back to the race in progress...

 

Well the last part is complete bullshit.

He might want to call Tas Maritime (the private radio group not the govt department) and ask them.

Not that they would know anything

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BJ is going north  now .Hope its just a glitch on tracker

 

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Wow indeed, the timing of the Western Gybe  was everything. Alive, et al are parked in/behind the hole, and URM & InfoTrack seem to be skirting it to the west, while Scally and Comanche bulled through further east 

image.thumb.png.6b7a0804004969045fc91c22c47bede7.png

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Just woke and joked to myself about the maxis getting overrun by the 60's... WOW what s messed up fleet...

Looks like there will be a few more hours of watching grass grow. Going back to sleep 

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Surprise surprise,

With the winds that's normally get's your engines going because you are going backwards on the currents,
This graph shows the world record is way ahead.

How come?
It is about LDV Comache 2017,,,,
Record.PNG.b3de4aae077903a249a2a742cb4b470a.PNG
 

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