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Sydney to Hobart 2019


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Windy tracker is also working this year: https://gis.ee/sh/  

Maybe they can fix the AIS transmitter while the mast is down?

I'm involved in that my name is on the boat, to which someone has attached a keel which it was not designed to carry, issuing a construction method we would never agree to use and have refused to in t

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3 minutes ago, paps49 said:

It was just an expression not a sailing term dipshit.

 

Hey paps, do we have to start explaining to some of these (insert derogatory epithet of choice) the source of EVERY expression? As far as I am aware it is just slang and has no official sailing designation

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35 minutes ago, Francis Vaughan said:

Seems we had this exact same conversation in 2017.  Nothing if not consistent. 

IMHO the only thing that makes the tack look close is the amount of money involved if they touched. Otherwise SW nailed the move, unlike WOXI in 2017, when MR overcooked it, badly. 

Agreed, perfect move by SW(I can’t believe I just typed that..) but let’s be honest, if WO have their sail selections and set up right from the start, they should have been well in front anyway. .. Let’s focus on the gold that is forming in the way of a TP 52 sandwich at Tasman island....

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5 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Comanche is just pure power theirs to lose now

only 3 at >20 SOG and the Indiand is clear by a couple @ 25.4

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As many of you know I am not much of a WOXI fan. However I have to say I'm impressed.
They were out the back door big time. What they do superbly is sail that boat to the max in whatever conditions they are in. Thats where the lesser teams fall down
The rest of the hoopla, not so much. 

GO THE INDIAN!

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Well if we look at the wind it’s shifting north t as they head down, DDW is the favourite direction for the RP sleds... Pity they can’t crank on the brace pull the pole back and run deep like they used to. But I think it will be close after the gybe. How much can Com pull away before then... it could be quite a few miles.

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11 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Comanche is just pure power theirs to lose now

Their's or the weather? LOL I don't think they will be the reason if they lose it will be the weather. Having said that they are now 5.5 miles ahead of Infotrack. Around 17 Miles ahead of Oats their nemesis. At this rate of extending they could well be over 10 miles ahead of Info and 20 Miles ahead of Oats at Tasman Island. 

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8 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Their's or the weather? LOL I don't think they will be the reason if they lose it will be the weather. Having said that they are now 5.5 miles ahead of Infotrack. Around 17 Miles ahead of Oats their nemesis. At this rate of extending they could well be over 10 miles ahead of Info and 20 Miles ahead of Oats at Tasman Island. 

I think they will have that kinda advantage. Such a beast in its conditions,  untouchable 

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5 minutes ago, paps49 said:

It is going to be fascinating.

The Indian is smoking, but burning up her advantage angle wise with squarish running predicted down the coast.

It's going to be a long night.

 

About midnight tonight.

Windy.JPG

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Yeah Comanche's angle isn't going to last at this rate. I'm surprised they have to be this hot? The good news is there is more pressure but up their arse later tonight. Wild Oats will relish these conditions. Stan knows the boat but only he knows what their routing shows compared to the other boats? The other good news for them is Oats is a way back and further than she was in years gone by. I think Comanche got out to 10 miles ahead of Oats at the moment she is 18 miles ahead of Ricco and the boys. Scally has pulled level with BJ wow..! Info holding firm with the boats behind her.

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Looking like a great fight for all positions on the line and a long time before all the quiet and strong races behind are sorted out. Little boats forecast to be in great breeze in 12 hours. Loving it

 

Though not so sexy for IRC7 in 24 hours. Still looks good for a winner from IRC1 or IRC2

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Comanche finally sailing way deeper..! Their angle is way better now which if sustained means they can hold it for longer and keep their gains coming. Their speed is good and consistently faster than the other 100's. 20 odd miles ahead of Oats now.

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A Race against time for Comanche there is breeze until 6am tomorrow morning. 7am onwards at the Derwent it is a parking lot. If they average 20 Knots they will be at Tasman Island in 8 hours at around 5am. That only leaves them 2 hours to get home. This could be a repeat nightmare for them? It's in the lap of the wind gods

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15 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

Anyone who thinks LO is a foregone conclusion now has obviously never followed the S2H racing history...

Yeah my predictions and based on the Windy forecast is they could be parked in the Derwent. Do you mean LH ? What is LO? 

P.S. Both Windy and Predict Wind show a parking lot after 6am in the Derwent Region

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Perfect setup by Comanche, much better angle than they have had before. At this rate looks like they should extend enough to take it, but anything could happen.
 

One bad sail change between 2-5th. Would think BJ & WOXI have more gears & be able to change quicker than info & SW. 

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A 20 mile lead is only 1 hour if the boat behind you is going 20 Knots. So Comanche could end up at the Derwent entrance 20 Miles ahead of Black Jack etc but with no wind. Let's see how accurate the weather is from Predict Wind and Windy?

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Maverick into 2nd place on handicap overall. DSS and the Gilmour Brothers smoking... Comanche need to get to Tasman Island sooner rather than later. My predictions put them at the Derwent with bugger all breeze. If they can get there an hour sooner then that may be all the difference? TENSE TIMES....! 

P.S. My calcs based on an average of 20 Knots until Tasman Island but if they can average 24 Knots that gives them an extra hour.

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2 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Maverick into 2nd place on handicap overall. DSS and the Gilmour Brothers smoking... Comanche need to get to Tasman Island sooner rather than later. My predictions put them at the Derwent with bugger all breeze. If they can get there an hour sooner then that may be all the difference? TENSE TIMES....! 

Maverick on a massive charge but will it be all in vain if they get parked up?! Best S2H in a long time!

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35 minutes ago, 10thTonner said:

Sorry, but it is a sailing term. I think I first read it in a 1980s book by... Dennis Conner!  :lol:  

Slam dunk is not originally a sailing term.... you ever seen any of them tall fellas what play with basketballs? 

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

Yeah my predictions and based on the Windy forecast is they could be parked in the Derwent. Do you mean LH ? What is LO? 

P.S. Both Windy and Predict Wind show a parking lot after 6am in the Derwent Region

My comment was aimed at the "fight for the minor placings"......

LO is just a brain fade..... 

 

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Scallywag and Blackjack within sight of each other.
59997082_distancescalllwag.PNG.97313f2bb8a4941a34d5ea1211b30e01.PNG

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9 hours ago, boomer said:

Fast forwarded to the infraction.

 

Typical, btw, that Seven cuts away from the copter view just when it gets interesting for a sailing audience, and gives us some meaningless, distorted “onboard action” instead. The whole discussion wouldn’t be here, had they made the cut ten seconds later. 

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The ABC described the super maxi battle as a game of cat and mouse. 
I would have thought cowboys and Indians a closer analogy.

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Progressing the tracker, the Wind will carry Commanche in a building breeze to the corner and then nicely across Storm bay.

Unless there's a major deviation from forecast (and it's been surprisingly predictive for the last 30 hrs) or a breakdown, this is all over but the fanboy bleating. 

Nicely done.

Setup to take a careful start,

run away building separation to the East,

finesses the transistions

 and then pure power across Bass Strait with a gybe to favorable angle to the corner while your competition is on the wrong gybe. 

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One quick post for insight. For first 2 dozen boats great day around 20k and increasing with only spoiler it backing left as the day wore on, now close to Nth. Pretty weird having 100 footers only around 4 hours in front and even weirder WOXI at the back. A collapsing front is moving through west to east with compression between the two systems pushing the breeze up getting closer to the corner. Currently gusting 40k+ NNE at Tasman Is. That weak front should go through Tasman Is after daybreak ahead of a light northerly in Storm Bay followed by a fresh SW change late morning. Looks as though the skinny boats will be taking time out of Comanche this morning on approach to the Pot so the Indians delta at the corner will probably be the decider. My guess it will be too big with BJ #2 second year in a row.

My other guess is Tattersalls looks good for Ichi as that southerly and lighter conditions on east coast will slow those down behind except back markers. Alive in with a chance for the rare double of 2 years running if the Derwent comes into play late late tomorrow to hold Ichi out .  

Out.

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9 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

Progressing the tracker, the Wind will carry Commanche in a building breeze to the corner and then nicely across Storm bay.

Unless there's a major deviation from forecast (and it's been surprisingly predictive for the last 30 hrs) or a breakdown, this is all over but the fanboy bleating. 

Nicely done.

Setup to take a careful start,

run away building separation to the East,

finesses the transistions

 and then pure power across Bass Strait with a gybe to favorable angle to the corner while your competition is on the wrong gybe. 

Stan’s the man. As well as the rest of the crew.

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Info Track should gybe in about 15 min and the others about an hour. Meanwhile Commanche is sailing 100% VMG for the corner while they make their Easting with only ~34% VMG (sin of 20 degrees, BTW = 230, they are on 160 COG)  or 14 nm an hour delta 

 

Look for a time difference at corner of about 90 min to WOXI, perhaps an hour for Infotrack 

image.png.f45004340bc0f61d0335aa0a60a59e0b.png

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11 hours ago, r22tahoe said:

image.thumb.png.4ad76a120f62814dd9e29f5fd0817927.png

"Standby to tack"

image.thumb.png.bb93a419e81ae3adbdf9da396de43779.png

"Ok helm's down." Note that the bow has already come up a few degrees, as evidenced by the spectator boat and the aft edge of Infotrack's main.

All boats are moving, but the wheel position does NOT.  Look at the spokes between shots.

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3 minutes ago, RobbieB said:

All boats are moving, but the wheel position does NOT.  Look at the spokes between shots.

This is why if you are as simply fast as Commanche, you let the sports joust in the harbor, and then go power to the win. No reason to hit the line and duel with Witty, Richo and a pack of TP52's that are built for buoy racing. 

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13 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

This is why if you are as simply fast as Commanche, you let the sports joust in the harbor, and then go power to the win. No reason to hit the line and duel with Witty, Richo and a pack of TP52's that are built for buoy racing. 

I was thinking the same when they got that late start...  Someone said they shanked it, but I think it was intentional...  Sail the start casually, stay clear of trouble and drama, and then go to plaid once the course opens up.

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1 minute ago, Your Mom said:

I was thinking the same when they got that late start...  Someone said they shanked it, but I think it was intentional...  Sail the start casually, stay clear of trouble and drama, and then go to plaid once the course opens up.

One does have to admire Scally's tactical move, if only for the drama of it. No doubt he's going to be able to enjoy that video from WOXI for a long time. 

Almost as elegant as Libby threading the islands in the VOR and nailing their gybe. 

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42 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

This is why if you are as simply fast as Commanche, you let the sports joust in the harbor, and then go power to the win. No reason to hit the line and duel with Witty, Richo and a pack of TP52's that are built for buoy racing. 

Ricoh.  Is that the "mouth" on WOXI?  God, that guy goes on....

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10 minutes ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

i'd love to see the action going on, on  Scally, BJ, & WO...  right now

Richo will pulling his perfectly coiffured hair out! :D

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