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Windy tracker is also working this year: https://gis.ee/sh/  

Maybe they can fix the AIS transmitter while the mast is down?

I'm involved in that my name is on the boat, to which someone has attached a keel which it was not designed to carry, issuing a construction method we would never agree to use and have refused to in t

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There is now also a real time "Active fires" layer in Windy. 

Active fires are provided by the Copernicus Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Adding fire maps is an excellent addition to our current environmental maps. The active fires map represents thermal radiation measured from space-borne sensors and detected as coming from actively burning vegetation and other open fires.

https://www.windy.com/articles/new-map-on-windy-active-fires-10126?fires,-32.083,152.380,7,i:pressure

Screenshot_20200105-093017.thumb.png.df224f69f712010f4dbc14b10667fdb5.png

 

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52 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

There is now also a real time "Active fires" layer in Windy. 

Active fires are provided by the Copernicus Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Adding fire maps is an excellent addition to our current environmental maps. The active fires map represents thermal radiation measured from space-borne sensors and detected as coming from actively burning vegetation and other open fires.

https://www.windy.com/articles/new-map-on-windy-active-fires-10126?fires,-32.083,152.380,7,i:pressure

Screenshot_20200105-093017.thumb.png.df224f69f712010f4dbc14b10667fdb5.png

 

Thanks for posting

It does give a general area of the fires only

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30 minutes ago, Rushman said:

Thanks for posting

It does give a general area of the fires only

Yea, if you want a more precise location you'll have to ask you gramma where she is gone have her BBQ.

(That said with all due respect for the many victims.)

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5 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Yea, if you want a more precise location you'll have to ask you gramma where she is gone have her BBQ.

(That said with all due respect for the many victims.)

Harsh... I am sitting in Melbourne waiting to hear if the father in laws house has survived in Orbost (see if you can find it on the Windy map)

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14 minutes ago, Rushman said:

Harsh... I am sitting in Melbourne waiting to hear if the father in laws house has survived in Orbost (see if you can find it on the Windy map)

Sorry to hear that, but it's an old Aussie joke I learned from an Aussie while sailing round Australia.

Try zooming in on the Windy map, it's surprising how much detail it gives. How accurate I dunno.

Screenshot_20200105-113640.thumb.png.0628ef93c98b1dc2243b46317832be26.png

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7 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

I found the Vic app put out so many alerts that it created panic. Social media didn’t help either

We had 3 teenagers in the house 30/12 who spent the night looking at social media. It wasn’t until they went outside and saw the fires in the distance and watched for awhile that they calmed down. Not a lot of sleep was had but we were ok 

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This one is also very handy  - gives age of hotspot (fire-front) activity from satellite passes.

 

Nowra looks particularly nasty - now heading N with the Southerly change that came through.

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=2168b5162d61432c8b3499818a2d60df&extent=150.1575,-33.9201,150.5125,-33.7738

 

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44 minutes ago, Rushman said:

We had 3 teenagers in the house 30/12 who spent the night looking at social media. It wasn’t until they went outside and saw the fires in the distance and watched for awhile that they calmed down. Not a lot of sleep was had but we were ok 

It's frigging frightening for sure.

Apart from a few fires I set off myself, I've been really close to one while moving a boat to a safe place in a 60 knot thunder storm. Lightning all around and the fire was howling as much as the wind. I do have a picture...

1867476-bigthumbnail.jpg.853b07ad06b8cdd00df25bfe8953ba93.jpg

Edited by Fiji Bitter
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Hot off the press from Nic...

 

 
 
*Breaking* ALL ARE SAFE ❤️ Thank goodness - love to the Showtime family x
#keepingyoucovered
Mark Griffith:
Drama overnight. At around 2:30am Showtime set off it's Epirb off the NSW coast on way back from Hobart . It is believed that the keel broke away and the boat overturned. All crew were able to make it out and launch the life raft. Now all safe in police boat on way to Port Kembla. Well done to Rob Buchanan and crew for handling such a dangerous situation so well. And thanks to Marine Rescue who responded immediately and professionally.
 
81167455_2720601277983619_41521804682943
 
 

https://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/the-yachts/2019/lce-showtime/

 

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Showtime is a Ker 40 , I almost bought one of these when I was in the market, the only thing that tuned me off was needing 8 guys on the rail to go racing. 

I feel gutted for them, the Hobart delivery gods strike again.

That was a great job in getting everyone off safely at 2.30 in the morning on a boat that had turned turtle.

I have no idea what the conditions were like, any locals care to fill us in?

 

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Good to hear all crew safe. I believe this boat was the ex Midnight rambler and they replaced the keel with a deeper version so hope  the structure was appropriately engineered to take the increased loads. A keel falling off should not happen as this boat was not exactly an old boat, but there may have been some other contributing factors such as recent groundings as per other yachts loosing their keels......

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33 minutes ago, Chucky said:

I believe this boat was the ex Midnight rambler

Very lucky to all get away with that, just like all of them on the Fastnet Rambler.

Some of my other good mates were less lucky, like too many others actually. 

Epirbs and plb's, and hopefully soon AIS plb's are life savers, no doubt about that.

PS. Those of you who went to the last Metz may know the latest on the AIS PLB combi. @Nick Bice anyone?

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Ais Plb
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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

Hot off the press from Nic...

 

 
 
*Breaking* ALL ARE SAFE ❤️ Thank goodness - love to the Showtime family x
#keepingyoucovered
Mark Griffith:
Drama overnight. At around 2:30am Showtime set off it's Epirb off the NSW coast on way back from Hobart . It is believed that the keel broke away and the boat overturned. All crew were able to make it out and launch the life raft. Now all safe in police boat on way to Port Kembla. Well done to Rob Buchanan and crew for handling such a dangerous situation so well. And thanks to Marine Rescue who responded immediately and professionally.
 
81167455_2720601277983619_41521804682943
 
 

https://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/the-yachts/2019/lce-showtime/

 

fmd -- glad they're all safe. This shit should not happen in this day and age.

 

Someone has some serious questions to answer.

From the link "The modifications which include new lighter deeper keel,"

 

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More hot off the press news

the mighty Gunrunner was dismasted 

 

*Breaking* Again ALL ARE SAFE ❤️ My thoughts are with all who have had a rough start to 2020 - Nic x 
#keepingyoucovered 
An update from crowd favourite Gun Runner:
After traveling from Hobart through Bass Strait on the Army's yacht with 50 knot winds, she was demasted. We made it into Eden at 0500, and then by 1230 we were being evacuated from the Eden wharf due to bushfires. We are all safe but it’s been a big 24 hours.

D4AD2AD6-B8B7-4C7C-8FB2-11958B3FC9C6.jpeg

EF05E814-2E20-4597-AEAF-489FF3769FB0.jpeg

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Boat yes that map ^^^^^  is real.

This is the one referred to as appearing overstated. 

IMG_20200105_065002.jpg

Who is saying that is overstated?  It does not distinguish between gas flares and small fires granted.  But it is a greatly simplified depiction of actual fire events at that time, including watch and act and contained fires - based on the active CFS mapping I see and am comparing with there is little on that that is not actually there...   The full scale maps generated by the various state authorities are far more detailed and scary...

 

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2 hours ago, shaggybaxter said:

Showtime is a Ker 40 , I almost bought one of these when I was in the market, the only thing that tuned me off was needing 8 guys on the rail to go racing. 

I feel gutted for them, the Hobart delivery gods strike again.

That was a great job in getting everyone off safely at 2.30 in the morning on a boat that had turned turtle.

I have no idea what the conditions were like, any locals care to fill us in?

 

50 knots in Bass straight...  Tests any boat and can deliver all sorts of wave nastiness.  Gun Runner dismasted and limped into Eden also.

 

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16 minutes ago, Boatbeard said:

Who is saying that is overstated?  It does not distinguish between gas flares and small fires granted.  But it is a greatly simplified depiction of actual fire events at that time, including watch and act and contained fires - based on the active CFS mapping I see and am comparing with there is little on that that is not actually there...   The full scale maps generated by the various state authorities are far more detailed and scary...

 

Boat you seemed to have missed the point that both maps are from the same source (MyFireWatch) They are vastly different so both can't be correct. Take your pick.

You can check for yourself in real time.

https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/#

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3 hours ago, Chucky said:

so hope  the structure was appropriately engineered to take the increased loads. 

Pretty sure they would have just knocked it together from bits and pieces they found lying around in the yard over a weekend. Why bother with all that paperwork nonsense :rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

PS. Those of you who went to the last Metz may know the latest on the AIS PLB combi. @Nick Bice anyone?

Fiji last time I looked McMurdo's compact 406/AIS combo suitable for PLB use was most advanced for release. US communications authority approval (read large US market) was the sticking point holding up its production. Recall a switching issue for different platforms???

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@jack_sparrow

Also Seaangel have had one on their site for well over a year, but it still does not seem to be approved/for sale yet.   https://seaangel.at/index.php?route=common/page&id=2906

And indeed, apparently the AIS protocol is not allowed to be switched/interrupted by the PLB signal. Shame, as it may save more lives, particularly in a single handed MOB situation, and possibly also in an MOB situation in extreme weather when the AIS signal gets lost. 

 

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2 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

Sad to see one of our designs lost, and relieved that crew are all ok.  I should clarify However that that particular keel was not designed by us or built by McConaghy,  Apparently there were lower cost alternatives locally which were chosen.

More like better options locally

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1 hour ago, Jason Ker said:

Sad to see one of our designs lost, and relieved that crew are all ok.  I should clarify However that that particular keel was not designed by us or built by McConaghy,  Apparently there were lower cost alternatives locally which were chosen.

 

2 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

Sad to see one of our designs lost, and relieved that crew are all ok.  I should clarify However that that particular keel was not designed by us or built by McConaghy,  Apparently there were lower cost alternatives locally which were chosen.

Well Jason old chap, interesting to see you ducking for cover. But since the initial indications from the crew is that the failure commenced in the keel beam/ring frame connection, I'm guessing that you had a hand in the design of this component?

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3 minutes ago, Rawhide said:

 

 Well Jason old chap, interesting to see you ducking for cover. But since the initial indications from the crew is that the failure commenced in the keel beam/ring frame connection, I'm guessing that you had a hand in the design of this component?

If you build a keel regardless of its supporting structures, it should not come as a surprise if both part ways some day. Whether that was the case here needs to be seen. I think that

a) this should be part of an investigation. Was any of this salvaged and can be investigated? If not, it's going to be a lot of paperwork forensics, I guess.

b) this should hence not be discussed in a forum before it was discussed with investigators. Especially not by its designer (even if I personally appreciate the willingness to share very much)

c) we can be very thankful nobody got lost. And thankful to the rescue teams. They sure have better things to do, currently, than looking after yachties.

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31 minutes ago, Matagi said:

If you build a keel regardless of its supporting structures, it should not come as a surprise if both part ways some day

Quite correct.  When we engineer a keel we undertake detailed FEA on the whole assembly, as the behaviour of each part affects the loading on the others.

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22 minutes ago, nix0nix0 said:

It was a Dovell keel, so exactly a half-assed job... Well done to the crew and rescue agencies for managing such a cluster. It's been a great boat to race against, hopefully it's not the last time she's seen. 

Andy Dovell designed a new keel for my boat and he is a total professional naval architect. Andy may have designed a compliant (to the required naval standards) keel design but who built the new keel and was all the checks during construction/fabrication carried out so it may not be the design at fault!

I assume it will be the insurance company which will be in charge of the investigation given the crew are all safe. Insurance companies based on my experience will engage a subcontractor assessor to write their usual report which will involve I would imagine going through all the keel paper work including design, construction, fabrication NDT certificates etc in an effort to avoid the insurance company paying out the owner. It will be in the interest of the insurance company and owner to salvage to boat if possible for evidence as keels should not fall off unless there was there was a severe grounding? This will be a lengthy process as insurance companies are in no hurry in these situations again based on my experience depending on the particular insurance company.

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32 minutes ago, nix0nix0 said:

It was a Dovell keel, so exactly a half-assed job... Well done to the crew and rescue agencies for managing such a cluster. It's been a great boat to race against, hopefully it's not the last time she's seen. 

nix0nix0,

I’ve worked with Andy before and I can tell you it wouldn’t be a half assed job from his part and he is a well respected naval architect in the marine industry who has designed and worked on many high profile campaigns.

 

Please don’t speculate or point the finger at this stage and let’s leave it to the insurance companies to sort out. After all you could end up doing more harm to the owner and crew in the long run as well.

 

Pulpit

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22 hours ago, Boatbeard said:

50 knots in Bass straight...  Tests any boat and can deliver all sorts of wave nastiness.  Gun Runner dismasted and limped into Eden also.

 

50 kts is not uncommon in Bass Strait, and in recent times the Hobart race has not seen these conditions for a few years. Deliveries back from Hobart with less experienced delivery crew appear to be a problem getting caught out in these conditions. Deliveries should avoid these conditions based on the weather forecasts available so just stay in port and leave when the weather is not extreme.

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As some here know I am one of the owners of Showtime and do all the offshore races in it.

Just to throw a few facts into the uninformed opinion. 

The keel was designed by Andy Dovell, to a similar design he has used for many other yachts. The design and the fabrication plan were then certified by DNV-GL. The builder then signed off on the fabrication report and provided 100% NDT for certification. All of this was required to obtain the ISAF certificate you need to be able to race offshore these days. Not exactly a half assed exercise.

The new keel design has reduced bulb weight by 369kg and fin by 318kg, despite the increase in length of 400mm this has reduced the righting moment of the boat and resulted in lower loads on the structure than under the original configuration. So despite Jason Ker's self serving bleating's, he remains solely responsible for the adequacy of the internal structural design. Whether this in anyway caused or contributed to the keel lose, I don't know, nor does anyone else at this time.   

The delivery crew, who were quite experienced and who can be credited with the positive outcome in a very dangerous situation can not be faulted in their seamanship under difficult conditions. 

I am only happy that all crew got off safely from what was a harrowing experience where only cool thinking averted a tragedy. I have no interest in playing some blame game. if the boat is recovered, then we will likely be able to positively identify the failure mechanism, but until then it is pure speculation to say who is or isn't responsible. 

 

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43 minutes ago, Rawhide said:

As some here know I am one of the owners of Showtime and do all the offshore races in it.

Just to throw a few facts into the uninformed opinion. 

The keel was designed by Andy Dovell, to a similar design he has used for many other yachts. The design and the fabrication plan were then certified by DNV-GL. The builder then signed off on the fabrication report and provided 100% NDT for certification. All of this was required to obtain the ISAF certificate you need to be able to race offshore these days. Not exactly a half assed exercise.

The new keel design has reduced bulb weight by 369kg and fin by 318kg, despite the increase in length of 400mm this has reduced the righting moment of the boat and resulted in lower loads on the structure than under the original configuration. So despite Jason Ker's self serving bleating's, he remains solely responsible for the adequacy of the internal structural design. Whether this in anyway caused or contributed to the keel lose, I don't know, nor does anyone else at this time.   

The delivery crew, who were quite experienced and who can be credited with the positive outcome in a very dangerous situation can not be faulted in their seamanship under difficult conditions. 

I am only happy that all crew got off safely from what was a harrowing experience where only cool thinking averted a tragedy. I have no interest in playing some blame game. if the boat is recovered, then we will likely be able to positively identify the failure mechanism, but until then it is pure speculation to say who is or isn't responsible. 

 

Thanks for a measured response Rawhide. Appalling seeing a blame game kicking in from a bunch of uninformed keyboard admirals.  I wouldn’t blame Jason for ducking for cover either - IMHO what he writes is reasonable in the absence of any facts about what actually broke.  And your response is equally valid, but I’d also note that it’s not proven that McConaghy China built the boat to Jason’s spec either.

Let’s hope the hull is recovered but given what’s going on in the field of Fire & Rescue in that part of the world right now sadly this is likely to be a challenge. 

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2 hours ago, nix0nix0 said:

It was a Dovell keel, so exactly a half-assed job... Well done to the crew and rescue agencies for managing such a cluster. It's been a great boat to race against, hopefully it's not the last time she's seen. 

Autcorrect fail! Should read  "not exactly a half assed job"!! 

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2 hours ago, nix0nix0 said:

It was a Dovell keel, so exactly a half-assed job... Well done to the crew and rescue agencies for managing such a cluster. It's been a great boat to race against, hopefully it's not the last time she's seen. 

Typical newbie comment. Someone creates a profile to rag someone anonymously. I had a boat designed by Andy and he was first class in every respect. Glad the crew are safe.!

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4 minutes ago, nix0nix0 said:

Autcorrect fail! Should read  "not exactly a half assed job"!! 

When someones name and respect is at stake my advise would be take better care before you post. Based on that I will withdraw my comments above

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Personally I hope as much as possible is recovered so proper science can be applied, so as the owner of 40 something foot sailboat I can trust the science behind the engineering in my boat.

My 20 cents

 

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1 hour ago, nix0nix0 said:

Autcorrect fail! Should read  "not exactly a half assed job"!! 

I actually read it that way and was surprised it drew neg comments.
No one says "exactly a half arsed job"

 

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3 hours ago, pacice said:

I have been told the crew inside the hull did not see any hole in the hull and from the outside, the break was flush with the hull.

 

I'd been informed the design was essentially a box tube welded to a top plate that had the keel studs tapped into it.   The top plate sits in a recess in the hull. If what you've heard is correct then it would be logical to assume  that the top plate remains wIth the boat and the rest of the keel detached at the weld.

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I'm involved in that my name is on the boat, to which someone has attached a keel which it was not designed to carry, issuing a construction method we would never agree to use and have refused to in the past.  Rather than waiting months or years for an accident report to likely state the obvious I prefer to get the information out as soon as possible.

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1 hour ago, Jason Ker said:

I'd been informed the design was essentially a box tube welded to a top plate that had the keel studs tapped into it.   The top plate sits in a recess in the hull. If what you've heard is correct then it would be logical to assume  that the top plate remains wIth the boat and the rest of the keel detached at the weld.

How was the original keel constructed? 

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6 minutes ago, Jason Ker said:

Cast, at the time the boat was designed the IRC rule pushed towards solid castings.  We design welded keels also but very different to this one.

Thanks for the response Jason. When I had my keel strut built I used Karewau Engineering in NZ as they are one of the largest builders of Keels South of the equator and the quality of the build is exceptional with all the MDR records. I believe they supply most of the TP52 keels but this may have changed since the NZ boat building slow down including Cooksons folding.

The current trend with keel struts appears to be the welded box section to minimise weight  with the inside section filled with resin. Most planning type boats are increasing their draft and reducing bulb weights with a goal to reduce overall weight whilst maintaining righting moment.

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27 minutes ago, Jason Ker said:

Cast, at the time the boat was designed the IRC rule pushed towards solid castings.  We design welded keels also but very different to this one.  Certainly more expensive also but we want to be able to sleep when our designs are offshore.

Thanks Jason,

as I said, I think we should not indulge to much in speculating / finger-pointing in this particular case.

Nevertheless, your information raises a good question: to what extent do naval architects have intellectual property rights regarding their boats (especially, as you point out, if their name is written all over it). I know that, at least where I live, it can be hard for property buyers to make alterations to houses, especially if they can be considered 'hallmark achievements' of the architect (E.g. there was no way to extend a roof on a platform of a new train station in Berlin, because it didn't fit the artistic approach of the architect). Similar rules apply to altering cars and even cycles (e.g. repainting a Cannondale frame will void any guarantee).

So my question is: could a naval architect decline alterations to their design from an intellectual property rights point of view? And if yes, should they? 

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22 minutes ago, Chucky said:

Thanks for the response Jason. When I had my keel strut built I used Karewau Engineering in NZ as they are one of the largest builders of Keels South of the equator and the quality of the build is exceptional with all the MDR records. I believe they supply most of the TP52 keels but this may have changed since the NZ boat building slow down including Cooksons folding.

The current trend with keel struts appears to be the welded box section to minimise weight  with the inside section filled with resin. Most planning type boats are increasing their draft and reducing bulb weights with a goal to reduce overall weight whilst maintaining righting moment.

I have no Issue with welded box constructions which are posted into a socket as is the case with the TP's.  Horizontal welds to a top plate is a very different matter.  I've heard good things about Karewau, so as far as construction goes you're probably in good hands.

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19 minutes ago, Matagi said:

Thanks Jason,

as I said, I think we should not indulge to much in speculating / finger-pointing in this particular case.

Nevertheless, your information raises a good question: to what extent do naval architects have intellectual property rights regarding their boats (especially, as you point out, if their name is written all over it). I know that, at least where I live, it can be hard for property buyers to make alterations to houses, especially if they can be considered 'hallmark achievements' of the architect (E.g. there was no way to extend a roof on a platform of a new train station in Berlin, because it didn't fit the artistic approach of the architect). Similar rules apply to altering cars and even cycles (e.g. repainting a Cannondale frame will void any guarantee).

So my question is: could a naval architect decline alterations to their design from an intellectual property rights point of view? And if yes, should they? 

We make contracts with commissioning owners or builders, once the boat moves to its next owner they can change the design without our permission, if they think that is wise. 

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Geez Matagi,

that's a harder one than it looks.

My gut instinct would be to say once the client has paid for the (insert relevant item here) in full, it's his/hers to do what they like with it. I don't really understand how you could enforce rights when you've sold them the title to said widget. You of course could void the warranty if the offending design departure happened in that period, but I don't really understand how you could enforce any further restrictions post that. 

cheers,

SB

 

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25 minutes ago, Jason Ker said:

I have no Issue with welded box constructions which are posted into a socket as is the case with the TP's.  Horizontal welds to a top plate is a very different matter.  I've heard good things about Karewau, so as far as construction goes you're probably in good hands.

Glad you approve of the Socket joint. This is exactly what Andy designed for Showtime. Your earlier uninformed comments make you look like a right twat now don't they?

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11 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

Geez Matagi,

that's a harder one than it looks.

My gut instinct would be to say once the client has paid for the (insert relevant item here) in full, it's his/hers to do what they like with it. I don't really understand how you could enforce rights when you've sold them the title to said widget. You of course could void the warranty if the offending design departure happened in that period, but I don't really understand how you could enforce any further restrictions post that. 

cheers,

SB

 

We sell a licence to build to the design, without modification, but never the IP itself.  In this case McConaghy was our customer.

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24 minutes ago, Rawhide said:

Glad you approve of the Socket joint. This is exactly what Andy designed for Showtime. Your earlier uninformed comments make you look like a right twat now don't they?

If it's attached with a socket joint then you've modified the internal structure also... Which rather contradicts your opinions in an earlier post

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Hi Rawhide,

I am sorry to hear of your loss mate. I hope you get her back, I dread the though of getting that phone call, it must be surreal, or is horrible a more apt description?

If there is anything we can do to assist please let us know, even if you need a fix we'll make it happen somehow! Also, can you pass on my beat wishes to your delivery crew ? It sounds like they did a great job out there,, respect to them.      

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51 minutes ago, Jason Ker said:

I have no Issue with welded box constructions which are posted into a socket as is the case with the TP's.  Horizontal welds to a top plate is a very different matter.  I've heard good things about Karewau, so as far as construction goes you're probably in good hands.

But I am sure you would throw them right under the bus if they optimised one of your designs.

The speed in which you completely washed your hands of this without even knowing facts seems pretty cunty.

Clearly a good at drawing fast boats (and ones that float and upside down) not so good at PR.

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2 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

I'm involved in that my name is on the boat, to which someone has attached a keel which it was not designed to carry, issuing a construction method we would never agree to use and have refused to in the past.  Rather than waiting months or years for an accident report to likely state the obvious I prefer to get the information out as soon as possible.

That's refreshing to hear -- but whatever your intentions, deeds, or words, you'll still come out of the cesspit with shit on you.

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32 minutes ago, Jason Ker said:

If it's attached with a socket joint then you've modified the internal structure also... Which rather contradicts your opinions in an earlier post

Actually I'm guessing we're talking about different things, more likely you're referring to intermittent plug welding of the box sides through the top plate, not the keel actually socketing 300mm or more into the boat?

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47 minutes ago, Rawhide said:

Glad you approve of the Socket joint. This is exactly what Andy designed for Showtime. Your earlier uninformed comments make you look like a right twat now don't they?

 

25 minutes ago, Swanno said:

But I am sure you would throw them right under the bus if they optimised one of your designs.

The speed in which you completely washed your hands of this without even knowing facts seems pretty cunty.

Clearly a good at drawing fast boats (and ones that float and upside down) not so good at PR.

 

2 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

That's refreshing to hear -- but whatever your intentions, deeds, or words, you'll still come out of the cesspit with shit on you.

Image result for well this escalated quickly gif"

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7 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

That's refreshing to hear -- but whatever your intentions, deeds, or words, you'll still come out of the cesspit with shit on you.

Probably right, I've pointed out some truths that have upset a few people, but any logical person reading this will undoubtedly see a clear picture.

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2 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

Actually I'm guessing we're talking about different things, more likely you're referring to intermittent plug welding of the box sides through the top plate, not the keel actually socketing 300mm or more into the boat?

this sounds more likely...

I also kind of wonder if the "plug welding" is that much better than just attaching the plate to the top of the strut - as it appears was done with the Comet 45 - Tyger of London.

I guess it would be somewhat stronger - but nothing like a real socket 

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Keep going Jason, it’s been a while since there’s been a good beatdown by an expert on here. 
 

They mentioned reducing the RM....presumably that’s just static or 1% RM, I bet once they get bouncing around off waves caused by 50 knots in Bass Strait the gyradius of that lower bulb starts exerting loads on the structure that it wasn’t designed for - assuming it wasn’t modified.

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12 hours ago, Rawhide said:

As some here know I am one of the owners of Showtime and do all the offshore races in it...

...So despite Jason  Ker's self serving bleating's, he remains solely  responsible for the adequacy of the internal structural  design. Whether this in anyway caused or contributed  to the keel lose, I don't know, nor does anyone else at this time... 

 ...I have no interest in playing some blame game. if the boat is recovered, then we will likely be able to positively identify the failure mechanism, but until  then it is pure speculation to say who is or isn't responsible . 

Raw commiserations and glad to hear Rob & Co off safe.

You say Ker is "self serving bleating" and   "...he (Kerr) remains solely responsible for the adequacy of the internal structural design." My only comment would be that no such structural delineation exists. Hull structure and keel structure are "homogeneous" not seperate structures. Simply commenting as such your inference is the hull structure is responsible for this keel loss in priority to other possible causes. 

Apart from that yours an appropriate and considered response concluding with. "..but until then it is pure speculation to say who is or isn't responsible."

But then you go against your own advice when the OEM is defending his design reputation in real time here for a vessel built under licence with no involvment beyond that to understandably distance himself for things beyond his responsibility and knowledge.

To be clear that is distance himself from both the build itself and your subsequent modifications of that design/build where that exact same modification is now sitting on the bottom of the ocean. I read that as not distancing himself from original design responsibility or "bleating," but simply ensuring it is well known where his responsibility started and finished.

Without that explanation the automatic conclusion is his design name only and no-one elses is prejudiced pending an investigation. Unfortunately that investigation may never happen unless physical evidence is retrieved, so all the more reason to have responsibilities at least understood at now the time of incident.

4 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

I have no Issue with welded box constructions which are posted into a socket as is the case with the TP's...

 

3 hours ago, Rawhide said:

Glad you approve of the Socket joint. This is exactly what Andy designed for Showtime. Your earlier uninformed comments make you look like a right twat now don't they?

 

3 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

If it's attached with a socket joint then you've modified the internal structure also... Which rather contradicts your opinions in an earlier post...

Raw my suggestion. Follow your own original  advice ..."it is pure speculation to say who is or isn't responsible" and STFU.

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24 minutes ago, jackolantern said:

Keep going Jason, it’s been a while since there’s been a good beatdown by an expert on here. 
 

They mentioned reducing the RM....presumably that’s just static or 1% RM, I bet once they get bouncing around off waves caused by 50 knots in Bass Strait the gyradius of that lower bulb starts exerting loads on the structure that it wasn’t designed for - assuming it wasn’t modified.

RM of the boat is a different thing than the structural moment of the keel about its root, it's possible to increase one while reducing the other.  In this case it seems based on the numbers provided above by Rawhide that they targeted to match the original Structural moments exactly.  

You're right that the Inertial loading will have increased, as that depends on the distance squared.  The ISO rule doesn't take that difference into account.

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2 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

RM of the boat is a different thing than the structural moment of the keel about its root, it's possible to increase one while reducing the other.  In this case it seems based on the numbers provided above by Rawhide that they targeted to match the original Structural moments exactly.  

You're right that the Inertial loading will have increased, as that depends on the distance squared.  The ISO rule doesn't take that difference into account.

Jason revised keel parameters are noted up thread. By all means if our designers got it wrong and imposed greater loads on the hull structure I am interested to know. But otherwise until the hull washes up on a beach somewhere it's a pointless discussion. 

in the meantime I'm shopping for a new or newish offshore yacht in the 40 to 46 ft range. Got any recommendations? Now that's an idea for a new thread.

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I have to wonder about the future of this race as far as being notable outside of Australia.  It is extremely unlikely anyone goes into a new build of a boat to compete for line honors with the 100' non-foiling mono restrictions, so how long will it remain interesting to see the few boats capable of winning be the only ones to look forward to follow?  Sit still and die.  This is the first year I could hardly give a damn, did not even bother to follow and simply remembered that it had happened, and then checked to see who won.  Quite different than my interest level for who knows how long.  I'm not going to bother singing the praises of opening it up to multis, or anything else.... they can do whatever they want.... but I do wonder how many are like me, and just don't give a crap anymore.

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1 hour ago, Rawhide said:

Jason revised keel parameters are noted up thread. By all means if our designers got it wrong and imposed greater loads on the hull structure I am interested to know. But otherwise until the hull washes up on a beach somewhere it's a pointless discussion. 

in the meantime I'm shopping for a new or newish offshore yacht in the 40 to 46 ft range. Got any recommendations? Now that's an idea for a new thread.

If, as has been said here, that the keel departed from the boat without leaving a big hole in the bottom of the boat then it doesn't matter if the internal structure had greater loads on it than it was designed for, it's still there and the keel isn't.

We couldn't know if the new keel caused greater loading on the keel structure without undertaking a detailed FEA of the assembly of keel, bolts, internal longitudinal beams and the two bulkheads, as a minimum.  

I would assume, based on the very limited information, that after a tension failure in the windward keel side plate welds, the leeward plate welds would have gone into bending, putting the I beam Internal longitudinal beam into torsion (certainly not a loadscase they are intended for) and after a short while the leeward keel plate welds would have failed and the keel would have dropped quickly to the bottom. Terrifying experience  for the guys on board!

I'd certainly be delighted to design a replacement 40 to 46 footer, I know of at least one other seriously in the market for a similar boat.

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Jason Ker said:

If, as has been said here, that the keel departed from the boat without leaving a big hole in the bottom of the boat then it doesn't matter if the internal structure had greater loads on it than it was designed for, it's still there and the keel isn't.

 We couldn't know if the new keel caused greater loading on the keel structure without undertaking a detailed FEA of the assembly of keel, bolts, internal longitudinal beams and the two bulkheads, as a minimum.  

I would assume, based on the very limited information, that after a tension failure in the windward keel side plate welds, the leeward plate welds would have gone into bending, putting the I beam Internal longitudinal beam into torsion (certainly not a loadscase they are intended for) and after a short while the leeward keel plate welds would have failed and the keel would have dropped quickly to the bottom. Terrifying experience  for the guys on board!

I'd certainly be delighted to design a replacement 40 to 46 footer, I know of at least one other seriously in the market for a similar boat.

 

 

 

I must say, I like how this -sad but thankfully not tragic- event has turned into a 90% civilized discussion with useful insights. Thanks :) 

Raw, I think we're not far away from two major developments: a) foiling b) less crew. So if you're looking for a new one, take this into consideration, otherwise the half-life of your new design will be very short, might be very outdated in 3 yrs time (unless the rating penalty becomes so exorbitant that the default answer is TP52. For the next ten years). So I think a Swan 36 or sth. very similar, maybe an iteration of a Shaw 11? Will be interesting to see how foiling in smaller (40ftish) boats will go together with stability requirements in offshore races (OSR 1+2 and their STIX requirements etc.).

But this is the future. Like it or not. 

clubswan-36-1.jpg?itok=aHONslVy

 

 

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3 hours ago, Rawhide said:

Jason revised keel parameters are noted up thread. By all means if our designers got it wrong and imposed greater loads on the hull structure I am interested to know. But otherwise until the hull washes up on a beach somewhere it's a pointless discussion. 

in the meantime I'm shopping for a new or newish offshore yacht in the 40 to 46 ft range. Got any recommendations? Now that's an idea for a new thread.

First off, I’m glad everyone is okay. Second, it sucks losing a boat. 
 

However, I think your beef should be with the folks you hired, and not Ker. No one is accusing you of doing anything wrong. He designed his boat to hold his keel. Period. 

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6 hours ago, Jason Ker said:

If, as has been said here, that the keel departed from the boat without leaving a big hole in the bottom of the boat then it doesn't matter if the internal structure had greater loads on it than it was designed for, it's still there and the keel isn't.

If clean break what's the consensus....semi submerged doing some circle work in the anticlockwise current off the coast for a while then NZ bound???

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8 hours ago, GauchoGreg said:

I have to wonder about the future of this race as far as being notable outside of Australia.  It is extremely unlikely anyone goes into a new build of a boat to compete for line honors with the 100' non-foiling mono restrictions, so how long will it remain interesting to see the few boats capable of winning be the only ones to look forward to follow?  Sit still and die.  This is the first year I could hardly give a damn, did not even bother to follow and simply remembered that it had happened, and then checked to see who won.  Quite different than my interest level for who knows how long.  I'm not going to bother singing the praises of opening it up to multis, or anything else.... they can do whatever they want.... but I do wonder how many are like me, and just don't give a crap anymore.

locally -- I'd suggest it might be a good thing.  It may just get back to a more grassroots race where the focus is on the fleet, not the top 3

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On 1/4/2020 at 1:48 AM, Matagi said:

Apparently, Zen sailed in 46kts gusts with a full main, that's all they had. I guess, brains  balls of steel increase righting moment?

FIFY. 

What kind of "ocean racer" can't reef? 

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15 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

FIFY. 

What kind of "ocean racer" can't reef? 

One that has sailed Race 1 of a series in offshore configuration, then changed to inshore config for the remainder of the series (complete with different IRC Certificate), courtesy of the brainstrust at Australian Sailing.

Note also, that, although the boats in the IRC championships were all (I assume) offshore capable, the race organisers knew full well that the boats were racing in inshore configuration (with no reefs, or maybe one reef, available in the main), yet started the long race in 30+ knots (gusting much higher) anyway.  The wisdom of that is somewhat questionable, as a change to the offshore main would have required a new certificate - which you can't do in the middle of a series.  Oh, wait !  Unless it's a series organised by Australian Sailing, but even then only for one division and not the others.  YCMTSU.

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