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1 hour ago, rgeek said:

For Labour? They're clearly want to go into a general election with the Brexit issue unresolved. I guess they think that will split the Tory vote. I wonder if the damage done to their own vote this week will cause them to stop and think.

Geek and to your second para. I wonder how many in the Labour Party are questioning Corbyn's strategic thinking that instead of coming out before the EU Elections with a commitment to a Confirming Referendum (where pre-polling had them being savaged compared to 1st Degree Murder in actual ballot) Corbyn waited until after the votes were counted to cave in this morning.

Using this Poll Analysis upthread showing they lost support in the main to Remain parties;

Labour voters from 2017 were more likely to stay with their party, but only a minority (38 per cent) did so. More than one in five (22 per cent) went to the Lib Dems, 17 per cent switched to the Greens and where the biggest single chunk of Lib Dem support in the European elections came from 2017 Labour voters (37 per cent).

There is an argument that had Corbyn accepted reality before the EU Elections they would be sitting pretty as a threat to the Brexit Party and crush the Tory's. An opportunity lost.

Now they are just a also ran and his position as leader is now under threat. Their Soft Brexit policy must now be under the microscope as I described upthread.

The Tory vote was split but if some consolation to a party that doesn't exist in Westminster.  Corbyn single handed split the Labour vote to Westminster parties that do exist. 

What a blunder.

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Ref-2016-to-2019-w-voters-1.jpg

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"No taxation without representation" should be a reasonably familiar rallying cry to most Americans. The bottom line with Brexit is that the EU is a non-democratic body that sets rules that folks

The European Union has a parliament.  Members of the European Parliament are directly elected by citizens of the member states.  This idea that the European Union imposes taxation without representati

Yes but I'm not sure he is too good at the relationship and negotiation blame game though.  

Posted Images

38 minutes ago, rgeek said:

The absolute priority for the Tories is to get Brexit resolved before calling a general election. There is no way they want the EU as a live issue going into a GE.

For Labour? They're clearly want to go into a general election with the Brexit issue unresolved. I guess they think that will split the Tory vote. I wonder if the damage done to their own vote this week will cause them to stop and think.

The Ashcroft numbers have one big flaw, they are based on on 37% of the voting numbers, GE normally attracts almost double the numbers.
And with leadership battles going on his prediction for the next GE is seriously flawed. Tories and Libdem will have new figureheads, Labour is 50/50 on the way to a new leader (September) And CHUK and UKIP are dead at the moment. And Brexit party nice on the side as they are not in Parliament can keep blaming everyone ding stuff wrong while the are doing nothing so can not be blamed. And can you think of a new Libdem leader that is capable to inspire and use social media at full. The fight is not between Lab and Con any more for the next GE, but between Libdem and TBP if you look at the EU election numbers. I do not think that will sink in at Lab and Con as they are not used to be sidelined the last hundred years. Learning old dogs new tricks...
While Con and Lab still rule the Parliament biggest blocks and Con is in government (with 9% of the votes in the last election).
And the last days going around on conservative twitter; 'stay with Con or it will be Corbyn by Christmas', really?

On the EU side;
they are really getting sick of it, and with UK as divided as ever and the risk of an Hard Brexit negotiator, their plan is likely looking like this;
3 months technical extension after 31 Oct to prepare for No Deal. No opening WA or the UK must come with a big surprise change after 3 years. (do not hold your breath).

On the Scottish side; after visiting Varadkar SNP leader statement;
Westminster never listened to Scotland in the exit process, while the EU supports Ireland and take them seriously.
It is better to be a small country in the EU then an ignored UK member. Next year Scottish independence vote is needed.

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19 minutes ago, LeoV said:

The Ashcroft numbers have one big flaw, they are based on on 37% of the voting numbers, GE normally attracts almost double the numbers.

That maybe Leo but 37% turnout is also far more accurate than any pre-poll that precceeding the election where they significantly understated the leakage from the major parties to smaller Remain parties and overstated leakage to Brexit Party vote slightly.

Going forward this result based on just a 37% turnout has a lot of Tory and Labour backroom analysts scratching their heads if it is to guide their future decision making.

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6 hours ago, LionessRacing said:
  • Elizabeth/Phillip passes, national reflection in mourning causes momentary gain of reason 
  • Trump negotiates a swap: NY city for rural England

Queen dying... hey that is a good one. What does that do with a Queens Speech and start of Parliament ?
Trump likes to own Scotland more.Better golf courses.

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1 hour ago, rgeek said:

The absolute priority for the Tories is to get Brexit resolved before calling a general election. There is no way they want the EU as a live issue going into a GE.

For Labour? They're clearly want to go into a general election with the Brexit issue unresolved. I guess they think that will split the Tory vote. I wonder if the damage done to their own vote this week will cause them to stop and think.

A panicked leap of the fence at knife point from his own party is probably a better description. 

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Going forward this result based on just a 37% turnout has a lot of backroom analysts scratching their heads.

Yep he asked 10.000 voters their opinion, of 37%.  It is the best polling you can find of this subject, but the UK politics are now in volatile movements. I would not bet serious money on it. It has better value on the understanding of why people voted for a party.
It is a bit weird to ask people who just voted if they would change their vote for the next GE.

image.png.61caff38d8d459ff7ce2ca29858cbce3.png
This is %
In the poll it looks like NI is missing as they voted in a different system.
I leave it for the UK to spot if it was equal polling around the Great Britannia.

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31 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Queen dying... hey that is a good one. What does that do with a Queens Speech and start of Parliament ?
Trump likes to own Scotland more.Better golf courses.

Image result for trump protesters in scotland golf course

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all sides must be looking for new catchphrases as many are now invalid.
Lets see if they are  creative enough.
 

1; 80% of the people voted for parties that wanted a Brexit.
2; Politicians do not listen to us, with 37% they did not let their voice be heard.
3; Tories or Labour can claim they are the voice of the people (8 and 12 %)
4; youth will change the numbers.
5; the EU will agree in the last minute to what we dictate.

 

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Looked at Ashcroft numbers, over 50% had an university degree or higher. Would that be the same for a GE I wonder.
Normally the more educated the more likely to vote, but 50% seems high.

ps go ahead Mad and Jack, I only read your post if others who I think will add something react on it, mad is on ignore I know 99% it are pictures/memes.
Oh and I glance first at Jack posts if I open them to see if Hitler is mentioned.

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21 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Yep he asked 10.000 voters their opinion, of 37%.  It is the best polling you can find of this subject, but the UK politics are now in volatile movements. I would not bet serious money on it. It has better value on the understanding of why people voted for a party.
It is a bit weird to ask people who just voted if they would change their vote for the next GE.

image.png.61caff38d8d459ff7ce2ca29858cbce3.png
This is %
In the poll it looks like NI is missing as they voted in a different system.
I leave it for the UK to spot if it was equal polling around the Great Britannia.

Leo as the EU elections morphed into a "defacto Brexit Referendum" courtesy of the Brexit Party popping up and not one representated in Westminster, maybe not so weird a question of voters looking forward.

BTW the NI result of the 3 MEP seats the Alliance Party (following their strong showing in Council elections) kicked a sitting DUP MEP to the kerb giving Remain 2/1. That will worry the DUP for any future GE for obvious reasons.

There are little nuggets in that polling analysis. For instance "Brexit Party - Leave on WTO Terms" which is softer language than "No Deal" which they abandoned. Yet only two thirds (67 per cent) of Brexit Party voters supported a No Deal. That is a figure contrary to most people's view of Brexit Party voters being portrayed as largely evangelical led sheep. That indicates a large leakage of votes towards any Leave party saying something sensible or in a future GE. It also is underpinned by history in that Farage has a history of adulation but when it comes to a Westminster vote, he has tried 7 times and failed.

The Tory's in choosing a PM to take Farage head on in a Brexit populist race using the same Brexit narrative will have to think long and hard about that analysis be it good or bad. I guarantee Lynton Crosby (who fucked up May's 2017 campaign and looking for redemption) and Boris key advisor today will be looking very closely at that.

Watch for Boris's PM platform weasel words about No Deal and maybe even turning on a sixpence, something he has form in doing and thinks nothing of it.

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35 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Meanwhile in NI;
MEP choices;
One Unionist DUP, one United Ireland (SinnFein) and one anti Brexit (Alliance).
So still Remain vote as SF can be counted as remain.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/27/northern-ireland-alliance-leader-naomi-long-gets-push-in-eu-elections-from-anti-brexit-stance

I'm now worried about you Leo ..you seem to only read what you write.

15 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So NI 3 seats is 2 Remain I Leaver

 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, LeoV said:

ps go ahead Mad and Jack, I only read your post if others who I think will add something react on it, mad is on ignore I know 99% it are pictures/memes.
Oh and I glance first at Jack posts if I open them to see if Hitler is mentioned.

Excellent Leo you gauge opinions you value posted here with likeys now..that is two strikes now..Don't know about Mad, but you have one left with me.

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Only one thing is sure, UK is divided as ever. And it will end with who has the ultimate say, Parliament or Government.
We know who is in Parliament till the next Ge, but who will lead the Government is only clear end July...
UK politics are being destroyed by the Brexit monster.

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:
50 minutes ago, LeoV said:

ps go ahead Mad and Jack, I only read your post if others who I think will add something react on it, mad is on ignore I know 99% it are pictures/memes.
Oh and I glance first at Jack posts if I open them to see if Hitler is mentioned.

Excellent Leo..that is two strikes now..Don't know about Mad, but you have one left with me.

No idea what I've done to offend Leo, I'm just posting up the general feelings off frustration and anger in the country and the pictures and clips sum it up.

There's little point in overthinking this situation and using analytical thought when almost none of the current protagonists are interested or showing any signs of doing so.

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2 hours ago, mad said:

Image result for trump protesters in scotland golf course

Mad I think Leo has a meme aversion using rude words or uncomfortable historical facts about Fascism, not realising it "says all" in terms of public opinion or forced upon them at that time. A simple meme/sign says it all sometimes.

So somehow Leo has put you I on his "shit list" no matter what we write here. Don't know about you but I'm starting to feel being shut down by Leo for having a contrary opinion to his own and worse challenging it? That aside.

This young girls anti-Trump sign was hoisted the same day when visiting his Scottish golf course at Turnberry in 2018. If her mother had allowed her to add the "C..t" word in the space provided, this sign would be very famous.

Leo chill out.

gettyimages-998515420.jpg

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And now Labour getting rid of one the smartest guys on the team, which seems ludicrous based on the fact that Labour will most likely have to stand on a 2nd referendum policy soon.

Quote

Tony Blair's former spin doctor says he has been expelled from the Labour Party after voting for the Liberal Democrats in the European elections.

Alastair Campbell, a lead campaigner for another Brexit referendum, said he was "sad and disappointed".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48434842

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Partesan or not articles like this indicating in eccence Remain voters are rising from the dead after watching Brexiteers go no where for 3 years and where they have had enough is reality.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/28/remainers-eu-elections-second-brexit-referendum

Expect also to see a resurgence of articles like this which haven't been around for a while outlining the practical outcomes of Brexitting. Articles like this to date have been labelled "project fear" however the worm has turned and Brexiteers will now start to be forced to put up or shut up as reality hits home.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-deal-brexit-could-ruin-breakfast-in-britain-11559035802

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Honestly, it will be an unfortunate turn of events if we lose this thread to noisy anarchy.  It has been civilized anarchy in the main and has been for some time my first read in the morning, before the FT, Gdn, SCMP, DW, LM.  Of course, I also have a few ignores going on...

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1 hour ago, dogwatch said:

It's a long, long time since he was "on the team".

Yes, absolutely correct and much despised by many after the Blair years. I had and have no great feelings about him, However, he’s pretty damn smart and absolutely correct in his thinking on this one. 

Very foolish of Corbyn etc to shut him out when he’s very useful and has a proven track record with reinventing the Labour Party when needed, again not something I think highly off as it’s just blurred the lines between the 2 mainstream parties. 

He’d be very good for the Lib/Dems as well 

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3 hours ago, crashdog said:

Honestly, it will be an unfortunate turn of events if we lose this thread to noisy anarchy.  It has been civilized anarchy in the main and has been for some time my first read in the morning, before the FT, Gdn, SCMP, DW, LM.  Of course, I also have a few ignores going on...

Apart from a couple, well one in particular, this thread is very civilised. I tend to look here first before the regular news sources as a way of filtering out the noise from main stream media. 

Part of this sorry saga is the feeling of the general public, admittedly I’m a firm believer in remain, especially based on the fact that the pro Brexit have been unable to decide how they would like to leave after 3 years.......quite possibly the longest drawn out divorce in history. 

I tend now to post some of the reactions being put forward by the public in order that other international posters can understand the feelings in the country. In another thread in the dreaded PA, Boris is apparently seen as an erudite, intelligent and potential saviour...... this maybe a step too far by anyone’s measure. So the only response was to post some honest home truth interviews with him to show him in his true colours. 

I apologise to other posters here if they find this annoying, offensive, dull, childish etc. 

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This is a regular read for me, and it keeps me up to date. I have no issue with any poster, other than Wayne and his childish name calling. I said many pages back, I think remain is the best plan. After saying never again would I buy a British motorcycle, I now have a newer vintage Triumph Trophy, which is a fine bike. My 71 Norton Commando was a piece of junk. Also way back I said issues like this need a larger majority. Just stupid to move on 52% IMO.

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4 minutes ago, mad said:

... Boris is apparently seen as an erudite, intelligent and potential saviour...... this maybe a step too far by anyone’s measure. So the only response was to post some honest home truth interviews with him to show him in his true colours. 

I apologise to other posters here if they find this annoying, offensive, dull, childish etc. 

It’s a public service to surface Boris’ past absurdities. For those who have not been following his career it is a public service.

Imagine Boris as PM – he would give Trump some serious competition. Would BJ take 601 days to put 10,000 lies and misstatements on the record? (not counting the ones he’s already placed there).

Imagine a summit meeting with Boris and Trump...add in a little geopolitical tension with Russia and China ...and you could see the opportunity to bluster over the edge...makes the “preppers” seem less and less loony.

the times Boris Johnson flat-out lied

Although a year out of date provides a quick tour of some of Johnson’s qualifications to take on Trump in the dishonesty dash. Afterall BJ has already been fired twice for dishonesty (as a reporter and as a shadow cabinet minister).

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5 minutes ago, Unkle Krusty said:

This is a regular read for me, and it keeps me up to date. I have no issue with any poster, other than Wayne and his childish name calling. I said many pages back, I think remain is the best plan. After saying never again would I buy a British motorcycle, I now have a newer vintage Triumph Trophy, which is a fine bike. My 71 Norton Commando was a piece of junk. Also way back I said issues like this need a larger majority. Just stupid to move on 52% IMO.

I rode to Atlanta in 1980 on a 1965 Triumph which broke down in Bowling Green.  

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46 minutes ago, Unkle Krusty said:

This is a regular read for me, and it keeps me up to date. I have no issue with any poster, other than Wayne and his childish name calling. I said many pages back, I think remain is the best plan. After saying never again would I buy a British motorcycle, I now have a newer vintage Triumph Trophy, which is a fine bike. My 71 Norton Commando was a piece of junk. Also way back I said issues like this need a larger majority. Just stupid to move on 52% IMO.

Whoa up a bit on the childish name calling, I think I'm positively polite compared to Jack Sparrow who I've nick named Haw Haw jack for very obvious reasons and yet you guys let jack carry on unchallenged as though he is your messiah. I sympathise with LeoV on this issue.

Krusty I regard your judgement of people rather like your choice of motorcycles, having had friends with both the Trophy and the Commando back in the early 70's bought from new, the Commando was a far superior bike with greater reliability ( apart from regular oil leaks ). You are in for some rather unpleasant surprises with your Trophy and my best recommendation would be to polish and cherish it but never ride it. You should buy something really interesting like a Ducatti Desmo of the same era ( even the reliability was better than the Triumph ) or do as all my friends did, dump the Brit bikes of that era and bought bikes that did 10's of thousands of miles with total reliability like the early Honda 750F's and early Kawasaki Z1's. image.png.728e2b116fb249d9bc785d93b9b30406.png

Mad, there are two sides to this Brexit story and your version of " I tend now to post some of the reactions being put forward by the public in order that other international posters can understand the feelings in the country "  is one of only one side of the story. Unfortunately for you the Remain side of the story is quite rightly so in my opinion, taking a bit a beating at the moment and will continue so until Brexit is fully implemented. Its a pity the likes of yourself hadn't accepted democracy and let the nation find out itself whether they were right or wrong to vote leave. With the situation as of the moment, you Remainers have done far more damage to society in general in the UK in the last 3 years than the  short term disruption of leaving could have done.  

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1 hour ago, mad said:

I apologise to other posters here if they find this annoying, offensive, dull, childish etc. 

its not like that content would be unusual. And as you are discussing the EU, it's quite appropriate. 

 

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6 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:
1 hour ago, mad said:

I apologise to other posters here if they find this annoying, offensive, dull, childish etc. 

its not like that content would be unusual. And as you are discussing the EU, it's quite appropriate

Unfortunately it’s only the UK that fall into that category, the rest of EU have been very sensible, restrained and civilised. Much like a parent dealing with a petulant child having a tantrum. 

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2 hours ago, mad said:

Boris is apparently seen as an erudite, intelligent and potential saviour...... this maybe a step too far by anyone’s measure. So the only response was to post some honest home truth interviews with him to show him in his true colours. 

Boris resignation letter as Foriegn Minister is very instructive as to his candidacy as PM and skills for dealing with Brexit.

His prime objection was that the UK would agree to adopt a “common rule book” on standards for food and goods in return for achieving greater divergence on services. By the way how this is central to ones position as Foreign Secretary to justify resignation escapes me, other than he resigned for self serving reasons.

You will see in his letter he couched this concern about wanting to see truck design changed to make make cycling safer but prevented from doing so by EU regulations. However he has ignored the facts as often is the case.

In 2015, Europe adopted regulations allowing these design changes however, the truck makers, helped by France, Sweden, Italy, and UK Government's, industry lobbied to delay their introduction until sometime after 2020. So the UK Government and MEP's actually facilitated what Johnson objected to.

How does Brexit bring the remedy Johnson desires? It would mean the UK government would not be at the table in any EU design standards negotiations and no UK MEPs would be either. The UK would still have to abide by the EU rules for its trucks to be useable across the Channel, and it would also have to accept EU truck design on its own roads.

So one set of rules means lower costs in a much larger market as opposed to the UK going it alone, higher safety and better outcomes irrespective of the place of manufacture/supply either from in or outside the EU. This truck example is why regulatory alignment works, yet Boris wants to walk away from that and potentially open the UK up to even lower standards and or sources of supply?

The disturbing thing is this objection of Boris's mirrors that of many Brexiteers.

So MP's in supporting him have no issue with this example of his intelect for negotiating a better Brexit deal or is there something else driving it? The only thing that can be is someone sees a commercial advantage attached to Britain as a much smaller market having to become a source of cheaper supply from places that have inferior standards. In other words Brexit is a cash cow that will come at cost not benefit to consumers.

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3 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Who on earth would give a toss about that wanker. Next you will be quoting Cameron as someone we should listen to. 

Wanker he may be, but on this occasion he makes a lot of sense. 

Which one would you prefer to listen to at the moment? 

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1 minute ago, Gissie said:

None of them. 

Surely with such opposing views you must find one of their arguments more persuasive, however unpalatable that may be. 

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Just now, mad said:

Surely with such opposing views you must find one of their arguments more persuasive, however unpalatable that may be. 

Blair certainly sounds more persuasive, however he is a snake oil salesman. I find it difficult to take anything he says seriously because of his past behaviour and wonder why he is even given the air time to try and show how nice a guy he is. 

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Just now, Gissie said:

Blair certainly sounds more persuasive, however he is a snake oil salesman. I find it difficult to take anything he says seriously because of his past behaviour and wonder why he is even given the air time to try and show how nice a guy he is. 

On his previous behaviour and character I absolutely agree with you, however, listening to what he has to say compared to most of the others he makes more sense. 

It seems that many people in the Brexit discussions refuse to actually listen to what is being said, but just knee jerk react based on what they think of the person. Next we’ll be deciding who to listen to by the colour of their clothes. 

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1 minute ago, Gissie said:

Blair certainly sounds more persuasive, however he is a snake oil salesman. 

That maybe when he has something to sell. His view that there is no such thing as a compromise or half in half out Brexit, which is Labours position, is spot on. That view is supported by EU election results. His view that it will come down to a No Deal Brexit or Remain is also spot on.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

That maybe when he has something to sell. 

He always has something to sell. This is all about himself, selling himself as the older sensible statesman. Next he will offer to broker a deal between GB and the EU. For a price of course. 

Not saying he doesn’t sound good and make sense. Just he is a weasel and always will be. 

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34 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Not saying he doesn’t sound good and make sense. Just he is a weasel and always will be. 

Name one politician who isn't a weasel, rat, ferret or any other animal who's name implies negative connotations when assigned to a person? 

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1 hour ago, hoppy said:

Name one politician who isn't a weasel, rat, ferret or any other animal who's name implies negative connotations when assigned to a person? 

I think most politicians are just ineffectual, either by their own limitations or the bureaucracy they have to work with. Some of them are assholes. Every now and again you get a used car salesman like Blair make it to the top. They slime everything they touch then side away leaving a pile of fuckedupness behind. All the time smiling and assuring others that they did their best and a knighthood would be acceptable. 

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I need to clarify my post. My 1971 Norton was a piece of junk, my words. My Triumph is a 1996 model, made by the new Triumph firm. It has had many rave reviews. I do not wish to hijack the main theme, but I will say, I do not need any advice on the quality of bikes, old and new. I currently own several, have owned many many over the years, sold several different brands, including early seventies Triumphs, riden on 60s British bikes, sold Honda, Kawasaki, BMW, Moto Guzzi, Vespa. I am familiar with the Ducati pictured above, and raced a 68 Norton that was faster. Nuff said.

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Blair in that vid said that people will definitely be stepping up (be it the media or politicians) now and challenging Farage on some of his extraordinary claims about a "Brexit on WTO Terms".

It is not as if WTO process is a unknown. There have been countless Westminster Committee findings and papers etc such as this by the UK Bar Association WTO Brexit dated June 2017.

Fiction: Yesterday on the LBC Nigel Farage Show 28 May 2019 Farage said a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the UK and the EU could be finalised before the A.50 expiry date of 31 October.

Fact: The Government lodged their UK EU Draft WTO Goods & Services Schedules last July and December respectively for WTO Certification involving over 5,000 product lines. These mirror existing arrangements with EU save for Quotas which have been split. The WTO will certify a draft schedule as ‘official’ unless a WTO Member objects.

Unfortunately for the UK, around 20 Member countries have objected using their veto right with regard to its impact upon their existing EU FTA's and in particular proposed Quotas. The very complex compensation/trade off negotiation period has started and this could take many years to finalise in conjunction with the EU to remove all objections.

Note: This is just one FTA with the EU only. Seperate FTA's with some 80 non EU countries (plus 20 pending) that the UK currently enjoys being a member of the EU will also need to be put in place at some point. In conjunction with a FTA is the thousands of new companion regulatory instruments that the UK will also need to enact.  Crashing out with No Deal makes the UK the only WTO country in the world without a FTA of any kind.

I wonder if, as Tony Blair says this statement from Farage that a EU FTA can be in place by October will be vigorously challenged by someone? It certainly won't come from a No Deal PM asperent.

So let's wait and see if the mirage continues unchallenged.

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But for his fuck up with foreign policy (a c9mmon theme) Blairs is probably one of the top 3 uk governments in postwar history. Would put Callahan 1st and, gritting my teath, Thatcher third. Wilson and Major after that.

May? Bottom of the list.

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1 hour ago, Gissie said:

Are there any mp’s that haven’t lied at some point in their career. Be no one left in parliament if this shit works. Which may be a good thing. 

It’s hard to prove that any MP has not lied. It may be that they simply have not yet been caught.

 However, accepting that some level of bad behaviour may be suspected or common does not mean that consistent, sustained and proven bad actors should be accepted as normal.

Some of BJ’s lies clearly show his pursuit of his self interest at the expense of the truth. For example his unwillingness to accept the consequences of his actions (cheating on his wife) and willingness to mislead to hid his misdeeds. Other lies are simply making up facts to go with his chosen story line or to embellish a tale. Both  patterns of behaviour are frightening in someone who will be making promises about the future in order to win your vote.

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1 hour ago, mad said:

The program referenced and while dated 5 years ago a good insight about the man who wants to be Emperor of the World...and never buttoned up his "willy".

And a Post Script to the above dated just after the Referendum result.

 

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2 hours ago, Gissie said:

Are there any mp’s that haven’t lied at some point in their career. Be no one left in parliament if this shit works. Which may be a good thing. 

Blair is clearly a very good politician.  His insight seems spot on to me.

Perhaps you fail to understand the term "Politician"   The job is to find words  (its a rich language), demeanor, theatrics to get the opposition  politician to find a compromise that both can live with AND (the hard part) to bring along a diverse constituency to support the process and outcome.     Negotiators find compromise.... but you never mistake them for politicians...  So... the hard part of the job is managing the expectations of the  constituency.  Political Parties are formed by politicians to streamline and foster group think,  create the notion of being part of "the team" and so make their job easier by getting you to take the parties word rather then think critically about the issue.   Couple those skills with  the ability to lead and you have a PM or President.   Political speech has to be different then negotiation speech. 

While I am  certain you can find an examples of a bald face lie....(See Trump) often people equate a change of position as "a lie".....or they don't appreciate the wiggle room that the careful language used enables the compromise.   I much prefer an actual politician in elected office rather then a Businessman, bullshit artist, or true believer.

I have to admit, I never understood Tony Blair's willingness to be Bush's poodle on Iraq.   He was clearly much smarter then Bush and a far better politician.  Perhaps he was a true believer.... I just don't know the full story.

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6 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Callaghan 1st? Why?

Nhs, social protection etc etc

Basically everything the current load of assholes are trying to roll back having benefityed from it all their lives thanks to their parents

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17 hours ago, rgeek said:

But for his fuck up with foreign policy (a c9mmon theme) Blairs is probably one of the top 3 uk governments in postwar history. Would put Callahan 1st and, gritting my teath, Thatcher third. Wilson and Major after that.

May? Bottom of the list.

Excellent book just out titled "Heroes or Villains? The Blair Government Reconsidered," that has a bit more balanced, kinder and I think more accurate view of New Labour compared to other Administration's than many have portrayed.

For instance Iraq with US alliance was inevitable but doing so hastily without proper examination and oversight etc was Blair's crime, particularly when Bush was not the smartest knife in the drawer. So harsh judging foreign policy history on just that screw up. Ironically Australian PM is critisised on the same same basis. Bush must have had pictures of them both with Stormy Daniels.

There are some big Brexit ironies attached to Blair who was in some aspects more pro Euro than the EU. For instance he encouraged the addition of eastern countries to lock in democracy to those ex Soviet states and also for diluting the influence of Germany and France. Pretty smart move, particularly in light of recent political shift in EU like Macron wanting to centralise EU versus others more nationalistic. Also increase in united defence policy, not just reliant on NATO that Trump is now moaning about.

Free movement of people/labour condition of 7 years residency in places like Germany Blair abolished in the UK to encourage the turbo charging of economy, labour for expanded NHS, financial services etc in places like London that Johnson as Mayor reaped the benefit of. Blair actually used imigration successfully to portray the Tory's as mean-spirited and backward-looking and so successfuly that Cameron in opposition backed off the subject completely.

This ironically then ignited the UKIP/Farage fire and led ultimately to Cameron capitulating to holding 2016 Referendum, where the refugee crisis of 2015 that the UK was largely insulated from, was exploited by Farage and Co. Today the word immigration doesn't pass Farage's lips.

It is funny or not funny how Brexit is playing out when you look back a bit.

blair-bush-2002.jpg

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Blairs mistake with iraq was to make it an issue of beleif and to push hsrd the wrongful justification for an illegal war. None if that fits with the social democratic values he campaigned on and made it look like he had lost touch. Iraq just looked like naked imperialism and when you shit on people for selfish greed abroard people in a similar position at home are going to beleive you are happy shitting on them.

Perhaps he would of been better sticking to the long alliance with the us, common values, that the us saved the UK twice in world wars and that was a dept unpaid, and that the UK armed forces where more competent at the kind of engagement that was going to be involved.

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'Front of line!' Huge trade boost as US promises deal 'QUICKLY as possible’

This Express Headline today is not unexpected as the UK enjoys a significant Trade Surplus with the US (see graph below) that Trump will be very keen to diminish if not reverse just as he is doing with China and elsewhere. Expect Farage and Brexiteers to be milking the "speed" bit for all it is worth and shying away from the US's underlying intentions.

It is also important to note the US has been in negotiations with the EU since the end of the Cold War and in earnest for around the last 5 years to set up a Free Trade Agreement called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership that obviously the UK outside the EU cannot participate in.

It will be Theresa May PM not the future PM meeting Trump to discuss this future FTA with or without Brexit and the emediate fear would be she will be poorly prepared and briefed and get suckered. Rest easy the Government unlike in many areas are on top of this.

Westminster's International Trade Committee has guided a  US Trade Relations Enquiry or enquiries since the 2016 Referendum and in May last year published a Report warning the Government about rushing in and doing a Free Trade Agreement with the US. The Committee Chair Angus MacNeil commented as follows:

“The Government has been extolling the virtues of a potential deal with the US, and this wooing has been met with positive sounds from Washington. As the UK’s largest single-country trade partner, it is easy to understand why the Government wants to promote freer trade with the US, and it is undeniable that some sectors of the UK economy could benefit from reduced regulatory barriers and improved market access in the US.

But it would be a catastrophic error to rush into negotiations with the US without a comprehensive trade strategy. The economic benefits of a US deal are presently unproven. The Government appears to be engaged in an exercise in doublethink: on the one hand telling us that new trade deals will be the pot of gold at the end of the Brexit rainbow, while simultaneously saying it’s too soon to offer a realistic estimate of the possible contents or benefits a deal with its highest-priority target.”

“Even in ideal circumstances, trade-offs will have to be made to get a comprehensive US deal. Without a trade strategy, we have no idea what these may be. Will the Government, in their rush to secure the future of the UK services sector, sacrifice UK agriculture or manufacturing? What does the Government intend to do to help industries if they are negatively affected by this bargain?

“It was clear in our inquiry that questions about trade with the EU and with the US cannot be answered in isolation. Will the UK align its regulations with the US, and risk erecting impenetrable trade barriers with our other global partners, particularly the EU? If there is a clash between the regulatory regimes of the EU and the US, which does the Government plan to prioritise? These issues need to be worked out, not just before negotiating a deal with the US, but also before we finalise our future trading relationship with the EU.”

In addition to the above a seperate line of enquiry is being undertaken by a new entity called the UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) as a part of the framework for the UK’s future trade remedies regime and was announced in the Trade Bill in November 2017.

The TRA will both advise and support the Secretary of State to perform certain functions and conduct trade remedies investigations – a function that the UK has not had to perform since its accession to the then EEC in 1973.

It is visits like these that the Government should be taking advantage of a coherent "trade strategy" to be able to articulate not just to Trump, but the country at large, their vision for "shaping a new Britain" post Brexit.

Unfortunately both inside and outside Government the only thing being "shaped" is their hair when they get out of bed in the morning. 

_104510659_uk-us-imp-exp-nc.png

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4 hours ago, rgeek said:

..None if that fits with the social democratic values he campaigned on and made it look like he had lost touch..

Geek if the EU Elections are a guide the middle ground of a Soft Brexit ie Norway/Norway Plus etc is a "dead zone." It is Remain or No Deal. Blair obviously believes the former, which historically for him is no surprise, but let's assume he is imparting an impartial view in that vid.

So parking where the Labour leadership have elected to position themselves over Brexit to date, do you reakon they should continue "as is" OR move towards the Tory position OR make it clear once and for all they are a Remain party to stay relevant for say a General Election somewhere down the track?

You're far closer to the ground than I to answer that question.

PS. One of my few hall of fame moments was in 1995 where I attended a function hosted by Rupert where Blair as opposition leader was invited. I found myself talking to the both of them mainly about sailing. I'm a Tory centrist and Geek I have to agree with you about Blair's salesmanship qualities, he charmed my pants off (not literally). It was also my first inkling that Murdoch by flying this guy half way around the world to a tropical destination had a gutful of Major and the Tories which was then two years before Blair's winning election. 

My only regret was the Smart Phone hadn't been invented then. If so pounds to peanuts my ex-wife would have demanded a selfie and she all doe eyed about smooth talking Tony would have put a big dollar value on her keeping that pic in our divorce settlement, so reducing my outlay. She would have then cropped me out.

 

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At this point people have realised that a soft brexit is the same as remaining but with out the ability to influence anything.

The May deal may well be the closest thing to a compromise out there. The problem with it is it removes the lemmings off a cliff negotiation tacktic. Not sure its such a good one to be honest as there can't be much coincidence amyone on the UK side is acting in good faith and every time the pressure comes on its the UK that folds.

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5 hours ago, rgeek said:

 every time the pressure comes on its the UK that folds.

The U.K. advisors such as Ollie Robbins and the political elite fold, the average guy & gal in the street are becoming more resolute about wanting to get on with leaving, and that’s where we are today, the muppets at the top simply cannot comprehend that, just look at Hammonds comments today.

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2 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

Wow, never knew we ate so many meat pies !!

Remarkably the largest UK exports to US are Cars. With Medical and Pharmaceutical next.

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

Not to mention a little Trumpian unhappiness with MI 5 in the run up to 2016.  (sorry, wrong thread, forget I said anything)

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6 hours ago, KC375 said:

So many significant trading partners like the US indicating they will be demanding "concessions" on trade in return for new deals with the UK to replace those it has as an EU member state, the concept that Brexit can be underpinned on an improved trading position is getting close to a joke.

Interesting graph just out.

740x-1.png

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YouGov General Election Poll just out.

This compares to Lord Ashcroft's upthread.

So Remain/Centrics big spike with NoDeal/Far Right strengthening and Labours Soft Brexit/Corbyn's Left starting to look sicker.

Lib/Dems with either Labour sans Corbyn or a Softer Tory Party in Coalition OR Brexit Party and Tory's "as is" in Coalition.

Some PM contenders might have to reconsider their speeches.

14167106-7088527-image-a-1_1559249314775.jpg.5a77c68e42160492943d66a7c841fef1.jpg2019-to-next-election.thumb.jpg.616ae21e484f4fc0669e89cd5e7d41cd.jpg

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9 hours ago, KC375 said:

Remarkably the largest UK exports to US are Cars. With Medical and Pharmaceutical next.

Yes KC vehicles #1 UK US Export. 8 in 10 UK vehicles are exported, but where market is only US 18% versus EU 53% and to add insult to injury the top US seller the Honda Civic built at Swindon (55% exported to US) is closing favouring Japan and expanded US plant(s). 

By the way in Swindon 55% voted to Leave, though to be fair Brexit was not prime reason for Honda's decision, being a Japan EU FTA negating the reason it established itself in UK in the first place. Something UK has to be very cognisant of with other foreign owned UK based car makers like Landrover/Jaguar and in other industries, particularly those with FTA's with the EU like the Japanese.

Interesting read for when Brexiteers say Brexit and UK Auto industry issues are unrelated, comments that will get vigorously recycled over the next few months with new PM choices and 31 October looming.  13 Auto Industry Brexit Myths Busted.

Day-in-UK-Automotive-2017.png

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3 hours ago, hoppy said:

Sounds like a smart move by them and not at all unexpected.

It went around yesterday and a few weeks ago in twitter in conservative sides. It was prove the EU was mean and nasty...

But I did not know that in Barnier saying "we will clearly face problems" 00.19 That we means the UK, I though he was working for the EU...
So the UK was using to Irish border to create problems for the EU according to this conversation.
But whenever that was pointed out in twitter feeds the hardline Brexiteers twitters just ignored that. Damage done, look how bad they are.
Really funny was the Media will ignore this comments, till pointed out BBC  already did broadcast it.

 

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The Rocketman speaks:

Elton John: 'I am a European – not a stupid, imperialist English idiot'

“I’m ashamed of my country for what it has done. It’s torn people apart … I am sick to death of politicians, especially British politicians. I am sick to death of Brexit. I am a European. I am not a stupid, colonial, imperialist English idiot.”

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1 minute ago, KC375 said:

The Rocketman speaks:

Elton John: 'I am a European – not a stupid, imperialist English idiot'

“I’m ashamed of my country for what it has done. It’s torn people apart … I am sick to death of politicians, especially British politicians. I am sick to death of Brexit. I am a European. I am not a stupid, colonial, imperialist English idiot.”

I don't normally have a lot of time for him, but on this occasion, he sums it up perfectly.

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11 hours ago, Sea warrior said:

 

Sea the poster of that short Vid simply extracted a few minutes out of that excellent must watch BBC "Behind Closed Doors" series to paint a picture that EU apparatchik's were engineering a Remain outcome to the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) using the Irish Border issue.

That Vid snippet therefore needs to viewed in context of what was recorded before and after plus the factual history of what was occuring on the UK Government side up until the EU and May signed off on a WA in late 2018.

5 hours ago, hoppy said:

Sounds like a smart move by them and not at all unexpected.

So Sea and Hoppy the Jury is probably out on that as an understandable EU negotiation strategy or not, however what is forgotten May made an undertaking right up front in her May's 12 Point Plan January 2017 that the Good Friday Agreement and avoiding a Irish Hard Border issue was sacrosanct. Trouble was she and along with everyone in Westminster had no fucking idea how to prosecute that ideal. Maybe they sort of forgot Northern Island was part of Union, had the only UK land border with the EU and there has been a 100 years of Civil War, if not War post late 60's over that border. Who knows?

Anyway the wheels then fell off the Tory Billy Cart over the next year, first with May crashing Tory seats in the 2017 snap election she stupidly designed to give her a mandate but resulting in the opposite having to get into bed with the NI DUP (who despite statements to the contrary couldn't give a tinkers cuss about the border issue other than it will never be marked by the Irish Sea, thus setting NI adrift).

Notwithstanding that to a man everyone of all political pursausions in Westminster generally supported Tory party imposed "Red Lines' and May's "12 Point Plan" right through to the end of 2017. Even BoJo the most Hard Brexiteer in her Cabinet and having her job in his sights supported her with this statement dated November 2017 insisting a hard Irish border would be "madness" and "unthinkable" adding all MPs understand the "social, political and spiritual ramifications" of such a move. Pretty solid position one would think...oops it was Boris who said that and he has been known to tell fibs.

It in fact not just off the cuff fib, but was a repetition of BoJo / DUP's Irish Border Position 2016 Referendum simply dismissing the Irish Border as an insignificant issue and easily solved. Yet an issue that today which has caused a PM for her plan to be blown up by her own side and made to walk causing a PM vacancy. Funny about that.

Yet literally weeks later Boris egged on by those like Rees Mogg's ERG did a 180 degree turn saying the Irish Border Issue was no different to driving in and out of Camden a London burrough as stated here in February 2018.

Boris and hardline Brexiteers then through the course of 2018 culminating in his resignation as Foreign Minister mid last year (propogated by his PM asperations) right through to today have adopted the narrative May never wanted to solve the vexed issue of the Irish border because she saw The Backstop as a way of Remaining. That being of course ironically in line with EU strategy as portrayed in that EU behind the scenes Vid.

Brexit Reality

If you correctly differentiate between the Brexit Party No Deal/Leave on WTO Terms blah blah and Tory PM asperants like Boris and Raab articulating exactly the same populist thing but wearing different coloured T-Shirts they are saying: Brexit - Do Today - Fuck Ireland & the Economy. Their sole complaint being the Backstop was "open ended" and could tie the UK into the Customs Union/Single Market with no say. A reasonable complaint that May using the non binding Political Declaration couldn't get beyond yet people like Farage portray it bizarrely as a "Treaty."

On the other hand May's Deal which was rejected for cross party and many reasons was exactly the same as a No Deal Brexit inclusive of WTO trade deals etc other than time, being;  Brexit - With a Transition - Accommodates Ireland and Save's the Economy.

If you accept that Brexit comparison and are into crystal ball gazing how is this as an amusing and possible scenario?

The Possible EU Brexit End Game

Bearing in mind some EU States like France will not agree to a UK A.50 extension beyond 31 October, the EU (before existing incumbents Junker and Tusk's time is up) simply to whoever the UK's PM anointed is in the last week of October in a simple one page letter saying this;

24 October 2019

Dear Boris, Dominic or whoever gets the gig

You have 7 days until 31 October 2019 to accept this EU variance to the May EU/UK agreed WA dated 2018 being the Backstop provision. It is now no longer an open ended date which agreives you so, but one matching the existing Transitional End Date or Sunset Date of 31 December 2020 in the WA. 

If for any reason a Free Trade Agreement is not agreed to in principle by then pending WTO certification, including frictionless trade between the EU and UK with priority being the EU/UK Irish Border, the UK can unilaterally extend that Sunset Date at a cost of €X per month until no later than the 3rd of May 2021 but on the condition of the UK having facilitated under the GFA a Irish Unification Referendum result on or before this date.

After this extended date of 3 May 2021 the WA is at a end and no further obligations or responsibilities exist between the EU and the UK unless agreed to elsewhere.

Yours faithfully 

Your Wife or Ex Wife the EU.

So 800 years of history where England got its first colony, fucked it over like many and it comes down to the centenary of 1921 partitioning out the last bit, the Brexit nigger in the woodpile and finally a date where the English have to Brexit piss or get off the Brexit pot.

That letter if ever written by the EU and no matter the response of the UK would put to bed once and for all Brexit and make all involved look like foreign and or domestic policy genius's regardless of whether they really should be regarded so. 

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11 hours ago, Sea warrior said:

 

 

I would not call it a plot.  I would call it a strategy.  It is a very obvious strategy, and it is working.  The Brexiteers still do not have a coherent plan for handling the Irish border. 

 

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5 minutes ago, captain_crunch said:

I would not call it a plot.  I would call it a strategy.  It is a very obvious strategy, and it is working.  The Brexiteers still do not have a coherent plan for handling the Irish border. 

 

The brexiteers are barely coherent at best.

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One of the populist ideas was to make Brexit so costly for the UK that no other nation would think about doing the same.

Little did they know that the UK English elites would be more interested in playing Russian Roulette with a shotgun... I guess that is what they have on their estates given the UK gun laws.

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16 minutes ago, mad said:

The brexiteers are barely coherent at best.

Mad barely "coherent" ???..Theresa at least had the excuse of having a 3 year long stroke, a personality bypass and the naughtiest thing she ever did was run through fields of wheat...

 

..the next PM will have Juncker and Tusk scratching their heads.

images - 2019-05-31T224510.037.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Chasm said:

One of the populist ideas was to make Brexit so costly for the UK that no other nation would think about doing the same.

Little did they know that the UK English elites would be more interested in playing Russian Roulette with a shotgun... I guess that is what they have on their estates given the UK gun laws.

308 Speedmaster

You can have one of these, just no pistols.

http://www.southern-gun.co.uk/example-gun-build

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I have shot a few goats, but never the thought in Tory grannies heads being the Lebanese love goat interest thing catching on in their village on account of EU free movement of people ..and which then drove them to vote Rees Mogg for preselection and then Leave? Brexit is a very complex subject.

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I presume Stormont talks put on hold pending election though getting info is like getting blood out of a stone.

This stupid women however just raised the bar, in 2016 she said: "A free press must be allowed to continue to hold the government to account."

 

She is probably on a bungee cord that keep pulling her back into Arlene Foster's office to continue her education on why people in NI who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties. She would make a great PM candidate. 

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