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2019 Pacific Hurricane Season: likely an active one


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NOAA thinks there is a 70% chance that 2019 will have above average tropical storm activity. 2018, which was a very active year particularly around Hawaii, is the closest recent analogue based on the sea surface temperatures. El Nino also tends to reduce wind shear. So, conditions should be favorable for more and stronger storms than typical. Here's NOAA's outlook: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2019-hurricane-season-in-central-pacific

Here's a look at what the SST analogs imply about TC frequency.

TCfreqa_fcst.png

 

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