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Tropical Storm Watch 2019


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It's that time.  This is what I picked up from Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits last night.

Right now there's a system off Florida that is expected to head out into the Atlantic.  But a high pressure system over NA could give it a nudge back toward the mainland, which could affect Canada.

TS Dorian is working in the Atlantic, heading toward the Caribbean islands.  But wind shear and dry air is making it difficult for the storm to get well established.  NHC has it becoming a Cat 1...

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According to Levi (video above), the HWRF model needing serious consideration.  The lower level winds are pushing it to the Florida coast.  The upper level winds will be pushing it away so it makes th

What is it with people buying bread in emergency situations?? Its like he wort thing to have, it spoils quickly. I get the sense this comes from the midwest when a blizzard is coming.  Here's wha

that is why I went with 3 layers of 5/8 ply on my roof STAGGERED [even the dade county code is 1 layer nailed] no nails only screws and glue on my roof no tarpaper only peal&stick plasti

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New Orleans-area kids just won the Little League World Championshlp, woo-hoo!!   Excellent baseball and a delight to watch.

Now we enter the Hurricane Season world series (New Orleans version)--the last week of August through the first two weeks of September.  About as predictable as tomorrow's baseball game, but with much more serious consequences....

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2 hours ago, nolatom said:

New Orleans-area kids just won the Little League World Championshlp, woo-hoo!!   Excellent baseball and a delight to watch.

Now we enter the Hurricane Season world series (New Orleans version)--the last week of August through the first two weeks of September.  About as predictable as tomorrow's baseball game, but with much more serious consequences....

Congrats on the win! As someone who spent months there post Katrina I hope this season is a huge miss.  Never want to see that again.

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Eastbank Boys! Sounds like a innercity gang, but great to hear the news of their win. 

     When I lived in New Orleans, I started out of the East Bank but then moved to the Oak Street Triangle sort of in the bend of the RIver where Carrolton meets St Charles. I got held up at pistol point just down the block from the Maple Leaf Bar so moved to Bucktown which was patrolled by the 'Bucktown Bad Asses'. Felt safer over there and I could just ride my bike across the pedestrian bridge at West End Park to my job at Halter World Headquarters just across the canal from Schubert's fuel dock.

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Ras, my part-time gig is teaching sailing for a local ASA-certified yacht broker-dealer who runs a sailing school.  The boats are berthed at the lower end of the selfsame fuel dock.

I'm looking forward to the new Community Sailing Center coming on line, too.  Based in the southeast corner of the outer harbor where the collegiate 420s traditionally have hung out.  And I get to borrow a boat from the Bucktown marina on occasion.  Good times, at least when we ain't sweating out an approaching storm...

 

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Met up with some neighbors during a walk last night.  They have been here a couple more years than us.  They were talking about storm prep - putting up metal shutters, pulling everything that can fly in heavy winds away, etc.

Based on what I've seen so far on Tropical Tidbits, I'm thinking if Dorian hits us it would be a tropical depression at best as it would have to cross the state to get to us. 

On the front page of the local paper there's the image taken from NOAA showing the cone.  The headline says Florida is in the cone of uncertainty.  

Maybe I'm underreacting but it seems to me there's a lot of overreacting. 

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16 hours ago, nolatom said:

Ras, my part-time gig is teaching sailing for a local ASA-certified yacht broker-dealer who runs a sailing school.  The boats are berthed at the lower end of the selfsame fuel dock.

I'm looking forward to the new Community Sailing Center coming on line, too.  Based in the southeast corner of the outer harbor where the collegiate 420s traditionally have hung out.  And I get to borrow a boat from the Bucktown marina on occasion.  Good times, at least when we ain't sweating out an approaching storm...

 

Tom, were you in New Orleans during the heyday of Sailboats South, the catamaran dealer in the little triangle at the marina end of West End Parkway? Right where the road splits to go right into Jeff Parish. I know they move out to the new Marina at Lakefront Airport after I left for the Caribbean, but I had some wild times working for SS and its wild and crazy guy of an owner, Colin. 

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Been here four decaded, and remember them, but don't recall dropping in.    My hangout was at Murray Yacht sales, which Pre-Katrina was next to the Cocoanut Beach volleyball courts.  Fun times. 

Anyway, who out there in Anarchyland is sweating out Dorian??   Mid-Gulf we are keeping an eye out, but mid-eastern Fla in presently in possible cone-land:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start 

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36 minutes ago, nolatom said:

Anyway, who out there in Anarchyland is sweating out Dorian??   Mid-Gulf we are keeping an eye out, but mid-eastern Fla in presently in possible cone-land:

We're SW Florida.  From the way it looks now, that high over the Atlantic would have to really push the storm south, along Cuba's north shore, if Dorian has any chance of getting into the Gulf. 

If it is pushed south over Hispaniola, the mountains could tear it apart.  But if it makes it through the slot between DR and PR, then it may have a chance of strengthening, as long as wind shear doesn't kill it.  But if it does that, it looks like almost no chance of Dorian seeing the Gulf.

As for east Florida, Dorian might not be much more than a tropical depression when, and if, it hits land.  Some models have it dying due to wind shear.

We'll see.... 

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How quickly did THAT change?  Now they are predicting a Cat 3 hitting Florida and it it's got enough steam, it could go right across the state and out into the Gulf... where there is more fuel.  Dorian could become the mouse that roared.

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6 minutes ago, Jules said:

How quickly did THAT change?  Now they are predicting a Cat 3 hitting Florida and it it's got enough steam, it could go right across the state and out into the Gulf... where there is more fuel.  Dorian could become the mouse that roared.

Crazy fast. It made a big jump N into potentially much more favorable (for it) conditions. Right now the HWRF solution is not great for FL interests. 120+ knot at landfall, keeps hurricane strength right across and re-intensifies in the Gulf where it rolls around the ridge for a second pass.

 

hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_fh99-126.thumb.gif.fe0f767cfe4c8ea099c43cee35ab8384.gif

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This thing doesn't know where it wants to go.  Last night local news said the models moved it farther north on the Florida coast. This morning those models moved a bit back south.

Looks like today and tomorrow will be spent removing the sails, bimini and dodger and buttoning everything up.

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1 hour ago, Jules said:

This thing doesn't know where it wants to go.  Last night local news said the models moved it farther north on the Florida coast. This morning those models moved a bit back south.

Looks like today and tomorrow will be spent removing the sails, bimini and dodger and buttoning everything up.

Anything in the forecast beyond day #4 is suspect. Never to early to prep though....

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16 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

Anything in the forecast beyond day #4 is suspect. Never to early to prep though....

Especially with this storm.  Last reports had it making a sharp turn north after it hits the Florida coast.  Sort of a half version of Irma - right up the center of Florida.

But getting everything off will enable me to do some things that need doing.  I want to measure the genny to see if my suspicions of it being improperly sized are valid.  And taking the bimini and dodger off will enable me to clean the salt grime off the frames. 

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 They say that hurricane Dorian is going to turn into a major hurricane does that mean they’re going to change the name to hurricane Ionian ( inside musician joke ) 

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1 hour ago, garuda3 said:

so where he/she going to make land fall, 

your best guest?

My $$ is still on margot -largo , which is only a few miles south of me, That sucks!

If I had to take a guess right now it would be a little south of Melbourne, FL but if it cranks to Cat 4/5 ALL* bets are off the table.

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My guess is the Space Coast.  NASA is preparing for that.  But this storm seems to have as many personalities as Sybil.  Spaghetti models I saw earlier today showed it covering all of Florida.  

This is the latest from NHC.  That bulge on top is probably due to the predictions showing it will make a sharp right turn north after hitting Florida.

1225605805_144746_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind1.png.d9843c6d288e153bf71047dfddfaffe4.png

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40 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

So, a loose poll on where the eye arrives.

  1. Cocoa Beach
  2. Vero Beach
  3. Jensen Beach
  4. Jupiter
  5. Mar-a-Lago
  6. Delray Beach

Les dés seront jetés; faites vos jeux mesdames et messieurs!

I'm thinking Sebastian Inlet  With some expensive (about $7.5M) equipment outside in Key West and a daughter and her fiance in Juno, the more north the better

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1 hour ago, P_Wop said:

So, a loose poll on where the eye arrives.

  1. Cocoa Beach
  2. Vero Beach
  3. Jensen Beach
  4. Jupiter
  5. Mar-a-Lago
  6. Delray Beach

Les dés seront jetés; faites vos jeux mesdames et messieurs!

Get out the dart board because this thing isn't following the rules.  However, I just removed the dodger and bimini so that lessens the chance it's going south.  If we take the sails down, install the ground screws we got for storms and otherwise spend the next several days doing everything we can think of to protect the boat, then Dorian will hit New York.

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3 minutes ago, Jules said:

Get out the dart board because this thing isn't following the rules.  However, I just removed the dodger and bimini so that lessens the chance it's going south.  If we take the sails down, install the ground screws we got for storms and otherwise spend the next several days doing everything we can think of to protect the boat, then Dorian will hit New York.

Is that like how I caused a snow storm by selling my snow tires?

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NHC is showing landfall around Vero Beach.  There's a tear in my eye thinking about the Tiki Bar there getting blown away.  Lots of boats there at the harbors around the Tiki Bar.

Local news is sticking with NHC but noted the Euro model above is falling more in line with NHC.  One of the weather guys here must be seeing a lot of panic on social media because he keeps telling viewers, "I know I've said I like the Euro model most and USUALLY they are right but the NHC has a better track record." 

If there's a movement south I'll take down the sails and tie the shit out of the boat.  That keep Dorian away.

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18 minutes ago, Jules said:

"I know I've said I like the Euro model most and USUALLY they are right but the NHC has a better track record." 

GFS updates quickly and NOAA can get data into the model quickly so this should help:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/292047.shtml?

The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in
the Bahamas.  A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing,
and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC
model cycle.

 

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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 22.5N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 23.8N  68.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 25.2N  70.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 26.0N  72.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 26.5N  74.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 27.0N  77.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 27.5N  80.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 28.1N  81.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
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That Levi fellow on Tropical Tidbits is the best I have ever heard or seen! There will be a fight to hire him when he gets his degree and goes job hunting. He does a good job of putting things in perspective and also conveying the variables and uncertainties involved in what he does. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

That Levi fellow on Tropical Tidbits is the best I have ever heard or seen! There will be a fight to hire him when he gets his degree and goes job hunting. He does a good job of putting things in perspective and also conveying the variables and uncertainties involved in what he does. 

 

Yep,  I agree. I chip a few bucks into his patreon every month.

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14 hours ago, P_Wop said:

So, a loose poll on where the eye arrives.

  1. Cocoa Beach
  2. Vero Beach
  3. Jensen Beach
  4. Jupiter
  5. Mar-a-Lago
  6. Delray Beach

Les dés seront jetés; faites vos jeux mesdames et messieurs!

This is going to wiggle back and forth.    I am voting between Vero and Sebastian.

I'm expecting the hurricane will turn and head North up the central spine of Florida.   

I attract direct hits from hurricanes, so the West Coast of Florida is safe, this time, as I am not there at the moment.

- Stumbling

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15 hours ago, Jules said:

Get out the dart board because this thing isn't following the rules.  However, I just removed the dodger and bimini so that lessens the chance it's going south.  If we take the sails down, install the ground screws we got for storms and otherwise spend the next several days doing everything we can think of to protect the boat, then Dorian will hit New York.

Knock it off! You're screwing up my sailing plans!

This is what I had to say about Dorian last night on FB:

My plan for hurricane Dorian: SAILING! People are buying up all the gas in the county, which I guess is prudent, but I believe the storm will be a Cat 1 someplace north of here on Tuesday, meaning a strong West to Northwest wind here. If there are some daylight hours between rain bands when this happens, I'll take my Adventure Island to Punta Gorda or Port Charlotte and sail it home. Tropical Storm sailing in the Adventure Island is a blast because the water is warm (you're going to get wet), the wind is strong, and between rain bands of a tropical system is pretty much the only time in the summer that you're guaranteed to not encounter a thunderstorm to go along with any strong winds. It's only fun downwind so I use the trailer to go upwind.

On 8/27/2019 at 11:13 AM, Jules said:

Based on what I've seen so far on Tropical Tidbits, I'm thinking if Dorian hits us it would be a tropical depression at best as it would have to cross the state to get to us. 

If it comes in as Cat 3 or above at Palm Beach and goes West, look out.

Andrew did substantial damage in Everglades City. Charlie screwed up Lake Wales pretty badly. In both cases crossing about the same amount of land that we have between us and Palm Beach. Could still be a reasonably strong Cat 1 here, meaning some trees and power lines will fall and lightweight stuff left outdoors will fly.

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still looking good for Margot largo, west palm beach is f.....d, looks like for now the european model is winning out, as that bermuda high is pushing south and west that's the case it might not even make land fall but hang off the coast and follow the gulf stream northcone graphic

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1 hour ago, Repastinate Tom said:

Knock it off! You're screwing up my sailing plans!

Well, we're going out now to take the sails down.  Maybe that will help send Dorian to New York. 

Happy sailing!

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I'm not happy this morning.  Daughter in Palm Beach (Juno Ridge) has a target on her back.  Older daughter and her family is in Apollo Beach where GFS has it headed after landfall.  Palm Beach County is already out of gas, water, bread, eggs, etc and its not forecast to hit until Tuesday now.  She is a biologist with the FL Health Dept working potable water so will likely be putting in long hours after it passes. Hard to evac from South Florida when it looks to head basically up the peninsula..  

Of course, the euro agrees with GFS on Palm Beach but sends it a lot more north - so we might see it in the mid Atlantic next week.  Going to have to decide what to do about my boats Monday as I'm flying out on a business trip Monday night.  

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2 hours ago, Repastinate Tom said:

Knock it off! You're screwing up my sailing plans!

This is what I had to say about Dorian last night on FB:

My plan for hurricane Dorian: SAILING! People are buying up all the gas in the county, which I guess is prudent, but I believe the storm will be a Cat 1 someplace north of here on Tuesday, meaning a strong West to Northwest wind here. If there are some daylight hours between rain bands when this happens, I'll take my Adventure Island to Punta Gorda or Port Charlotte and sail it home. Tropical Storm sailing in the Adventure Island is a blast because the water is warm (you're going to get wet), the wind is strong, and between rain bands of a tropical system is pretty much the only time in the summer that you're guaranteed to not encounter a thunderstorm to go along with any strong winds. It's only fun downwind so I use the trailer to go upwind.

If it comes in as Cat 3 or above at Palm Beach and goes West, look out.

Andrew did substantial damage in Everglades City. Charlie screwed up Lake Wales pretty badly. In both cases crossing about the same amount of land that we have between us and Palm Beach. Could still be a reasonably strong Cat 1 here, meaning some trees and power lines will fall and lightweight stuff left outdoors will fly.

Based on photos you’ve shared of your “sailboats” if you launch I predict you’ll actually be sinking.

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1 hour ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Palm Beach County is already out of gas, water, bread, eggs, etc and its not forecast to hit until Tuesday now. 

In Eastern NC this would be white bread, Natural light and Eveready batteries.

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2 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

I'm not happy this morning.  Daughter in Palm Beach (Juno Ridge) has a target on her back.  Older daughter and her family is in Apollo Beach where GFS has it headed after landfall.  Palm Beach County is already out of gas, water, bread, eggs, etc and its not forecast to hit until Tuesday now.  She is a biologist with the FL Health Dept working potable water so will likely be putting in long hours after it passes. Hard to evac from South Florida when it looks to head basically up the peninsula..  

Of course, the euro agrees with GFS on Palm Beach but sends it a lot more north - so we might see it in the mid Atlantic next week.  Going to have to decide what to do about my boats Monday as I'm flying out on a business trip Monday night.  

My prediction is non-event for Maryland at best to heavy rain at worst, but taking the jib down and double lines never hurts.

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16 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

My prediction is non-event for Maryland at best to heavy rain at worst, but taking the jib down and double lines never hurts.

Don't disagree.  Only headed to NY so will be able to come back Wed if it looks to accelerate or get closer.  Dealing with a nervous mother who has kids and grandkids in the path is going to be interesting this weekend.  

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2 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

I'm not happy this morning.  Daughter in Palm Beach (Juno Ridge) has a target on her back.  Older daughter and her family is in Apollo Beach where GFS has it headed after landfall.  Palm Beach County is already out of gas, water, bread, eggs, etc and its not forecast to hit until Tuesday now.  She is a biologist with the FL Health Dept working potable water so will likely be putting in long hours after it passes. Hard to evac from South Florida when it looks to head basically up the peninsula..  

Of course, the euro agrees with GFS on Palm Beach but sends it a lot more north - so we might see it in the mid Atlantic next week.  Going to have to decide what to do about my boats Monday as I'm flying out on a business trip Monday night.  

I feel for you.  I hope your daughter is making plans to either leave or find a seriously solid shelter.  My dad lived in WPB for 14 years, one of those years Andrew hit, but never was there a threat like this.

If I were on the east coast, I'd probably be heading south and/or west.  Going north on I-95 or the tollway could put you right in the thick of things.  Dorian is predicted to run right up the middle of the state.  OTOH, the skittishness of this storm could take it anywhere.

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10 minutes ago, Jules said:

I feel for you.  I hope your daughter is making plans to either leave or find a seriously solid shelter.  My dad lived in WPB for 14 years, one of those years Andrew hit, but never was there a threat like this.

If I were on the east coast, I'd probably be heading south and/or west.  Going north on I-95 or the tollway could put you right in the thick of things.  Dorian is predicted to run right up the middle of the state.  OTOH, the skittishness of this storm could take it anywhere.

I grew up in Eau Gallie and well remember the ability of hurricanes coming up the peninsula to wander along the coast before suddenly coming ashore.  Her fiance's parents live in a newer house in Loxahatchie so they are looking at camping with them.  From an Evac standpoint, they are in the "hard to pick someplace given the spread of possibilities" mode.  

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13 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Please all keep in mind Florida has some internal waterways that will flood the shit out of Jacksonville and some other places from the land side if the storm yanks a right at landfall.

Yep.  The St Johns will have older parts of Jacksonville flooded knee deep with even a near miss.  

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1 hour ago, Israel Hands said:

In Eastern NC this would be white bread, Natural light and Eveready batteries.

     My interior decorator girlfriend had one of her gay wanna be interior decorator buddies beg to 'ride the storm out' with her at her (well decorated) 1950's fishing shack on a coastal bayou just a quarter mile from the open Gulf beach. He thought it was just an excuse for 'day and night drinking' and he was so in the way as far as preparing the house and property for a major storm approaching that she sent him to the stores with instructions to stock up on emergency supplies if they got hit.

     He came back with many boxes of mac and cheese, dried beans, and plenty of light bulbs is case the power was out for days!

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56 minutes ago, Jules said:

Dorian is predicted to run right up the middle of the state.  OTOH, the skittishness of this storm could take it anywhere.

    I'm getting a bad feeling that Dorian is going to make the turn North and following I-95 just after landfall and it will be like deveining a shrimp. 

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1 hour ago, Israel Hands said:

In Eastern NC this would be white bread, Natural light and Eveready batteries.

What is it with people buying bread in emergency situations?? Its like he wort thing to have, it spoils quickly. I get the sense this comes from the midwest when a blizzard is coming. 

Here's what you really want: to have: bottled water, canned goods, pasta, propane (some cooking fuel source), batteries, candles/lantern, a way to charge your phone (car outlet, generator, solar charger), chainsaw, GASOLINE!,   

OH YEAH: and fill your bathtub with water to flush your toilet with!

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55 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

     My interior decorator girlfriend had one of her gay wanna be interior decorator buddies beg to 'ride the storm out' with her...

Made me think of a Ron White skit about a guy who was planning on tying himself to a tree during a hurricane. 

"It's not THAT the wind is blowin'.  It''s WHAT the wind is blowin'."

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This guy seems to really be getting a good message out over on Windy. I especially like how he has worded this bit,

This is dire and plans need to be made. I know people in Florida tend I hope we are wrong and that some people can be a bit stubborn or say "They lived through Hurricane X".

I've been guilty of the 'I lived through Hurricane ____' syndrome but the intensity and rapid intensification of storms in the last few years and the preponderance of media overload and confidence in forecasting doesn't let one wait to the last minute to take action. 

Earlier today, Dr. Marshall Shepherd, the host of The Weather Channel's Weather Geeks and a Senior Contributor to Forbes, has posted "the most urgently worded update in some time" on hurricane Dorian. Read on (the original post was reformatted for better readability).

Urgent, urgent hurricane update (Friday 7:00 am)

This probably going to be my most urgently worded update in some time. 2 things are happening that ramp up my worry.

  1. The best weather models that we use are starting to come into consensus
  2. It is getting closer in time for Hurricane Dorian landfall.

The east coast of Florida, much of the state, and coastal GA/Carolinas face a major and life-threatening and sustained threat.

The storm is projected, at this time, to make landfall as a Category 4 or higher hurricane somewhere between Melbourne and Ft. Lauderdale.

If you need a reminder of the life-altering and devastating potential of this magnitude storm, Hurricane Michael (2018) near Panama City is an example, and this area is more densely populated. The full brunt of a hurricane (wind, storm surge, rainfall, tornadoes) will be on display.

I have two other significant concerns. First, the storm is projected to slow significantly once it makes landfall (overnight argh) around Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. The models then show it slowly meandering up the Peninsula, which means every Part of peninsula Florida would eventually be affected.

By Wednesday the hurricane would still be in the central Florida (Tampa to Orlando) area. From Wednesday to Friday, it then heads towards Jacksonville and the Georgia Coast....so be paying attention places like Savannah and Charleston.

Then heads up the GA/Carolina coastline (and near water again for some strengthening). This slow meandering storm will pose a significant wind and storm threat but we could also see 2 to 3 feet of rain and life-threatening flooding.

I am trying not to use analogues because every hurricane is different but a Michael (wind+surge) + Florence (tremendous) flooding is coming to mind. I will be calling my dad today. He lives in an affected region.

This is dire and plans need to be made. I know people in Florida tend I hope we are wrong and that some people can be a bit stubborn or say "They lived through Hurricane X".

However, as we saw with Harvey or Michael, it is flawed logic and optimism bias to think you have lived through anomaly extreme events. Past experience is not a predictor in anomaly events.

I truly hoping people are making those inaccurate, cliche jokes next week (actually forecasts have a high degree of accuracy people just tend to remember the occasional miss like they do a rare field goal miss in a big game by a really good kicker), but there is nothing at this point that suggests that anything is going to change.

There will be little tweaks here and there of the models in the coming days but the uncertainty is narrowing. Again, this is guidance not Gospel.

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Just saw the local forecast - we're getting close to 24 hour coverage, like Irma - and it said Dorian could come close to a standstill right over the Bahamas.  And we've been thinking we're fucked.  This could be another Barbuda-type destruction.

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there must have been a memo at NHC a few years ago that every update has to include the phrase 'life threatening' at least 3 times.

The problem with these types of warnings is they are not specific enough so the wrong people end up evacuating, and the people who really do need to evacuate end up getting stuck in traffic wit no gas in the middle of a hurricane.

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I haven't been studying it closely enough in the past 48 hours to get a grasp: Has it gotten much larger than before? Or will it? Because we've always understood that its intensity would likely rise, but it was a relatively small, compact system.

Even if it moves very slowly, a prediction of 2-3' of rain all up the coast is extreme. That's only happened a small number of times. It happened here in 1999 when Dennis (10") and Floyd (20") conspired to deliver us 30" of rain in 10 days. And we had what they called "500-year flooding."

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So this may not be the ideal place to ask: 

we have a townhouse in Conway, SC, that did just fine in the October 2018 Hurricane Michael. 

the place included OSB pre-cut for windows patio doors. 

 

What's the "best way" to install those ? 

Stainless "Hanger Bolts" with fender washers and  wing Nuts

Do you put reinforcing 1x3" across as battens? 

 

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6 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

So this may not be the ideal place to ask: 

we have a townhouse in Conway, SC, that did just fine in the October 2018 Hurricane Michael. 

the place included OSB pre-cut for windows patio doors. 

 

What's the "best way" to install those ? 

Stainless "Hanger Bolts" with fender washers and  wing Nuts

Do you put reinforcing 1x3" across as battens?

Depends on what you're hanging it on.  Here, all the exterior walls are CMU (concrete masonry unit - aka cinder block).  For wood stud walls with wood siding, you could just screw the plywood down but it will leave holes in your siding.  You certainly put hanger bolts into the wood studs followed by fender washers and either wing nuts or standard nuts.  With standard nuts, you can snug them up them with a battery drill and save your thumbs.  After you take the plywood down, find some kind of cap to cover the machine screw end of the hanger bolts.  

The 1x3 would be fine over smaller openings but for patio doors 2x4s would be better if you need the interior support.  Where the plywood joins, a 1x4 strip screwed over the joint would help keep the wind from getting underneath.  OSB isn't going to take a lot of weathering.  You're better off with Douglas fir plywood.  SYP ply tends to delaminate when it gets wet.

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So I'm sitting in my office in West Palm looking over the intracoastal. I'm surprised at how many boats are still here. The super yachts started heading out yesterday and today, but the cruising sailboats are all still here with canvass up. One's parked in the channel right in front of the bridge. 

My apartment stops A/C at 35kts so I'm headed to PDX this afternoon. 

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5 minutes ago, Elegua said:

So I'm sitting in my office in West Palm looking over the intracoastal. I'm surprised at how many boats are still here. The super yachts started heading out yesterday and today, but the cruising sailboats are all still here with canvass up. One's parked in the channel right in front of the bridge. 

either planning to get to it tomorrow or they are hoping for a total loss.

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17 minutes ago, Elegua said:

So I'm sitting in my office in West Palm looking over the intracoastal. I'm surprised at how many boats are still here. The super yachts started heading out yesterday and today, but the cruising sailboats are all still here with canvass up. One's parked in the channel right in front of the bridge. 

My apartment stops A/C at 35kts so I'm headed to PDX this afternoon. 

Plenty of time to head south from WPB area, which is the shortest path out of Dorians path... well not plenty but if one was thinking of moving that would be the direction to go 

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Not sure if this link will take you to the Windy scenario I just dialed up but if it does you will see what I meant about Dorian deveining the Fla peninsula but now guts the Ga and Carolina coasts too!

https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes?gust,29.037,-80.046,5,i:pressure,m:evpadJl

Try and run the animation from the timeline start button in the lower left corner.

image.thumb.png.d02325681889079bb8b70930618a5b1a.png

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I see so many doing the plywood over windows WRONG
 
 plywood sheets if nailed or screwed over the OUTSIDE of a window on the wall will blow off
as the wind will get under the corners vibrate the sheet and pull it off

the way to do it is cut the plywood to fit INSIDE the window opening on the sill outside
then use 2x4's split on the angle of your window sill to hold the plywood in place
with topcon screws going 90 deg to the wind into the sill so they can't pull out

of course metal shutters lag bolted in place is better but not a last minute deal to get
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