Jump to content

Tropical Storm Watch 2019


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Repastinate Tom said:

I asked you nicely to knock it off. Now look what you've done. My sailing plans are probably ruined!

I'm really sorry, Tom.  I only intended to bring Dorian down to tropical storm level, not scare it away.

On another note, my crystal ball is seeing garage sales on bottled water, plywood and brand new generators.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 342
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

According to Levi (video above), the HWRF model needing serious consideration.  The lower level winds are pushing it to the Florida coast.  The upper level winds will be pushing it away so it makes th

What is it with people buying bread in emergency situations?? Its like he wort thing to have, it spoils quickly. I get the sense this comes from the midwest when a blizzard is coming.  Here's wha

that is why I went with 3 layers of 5/8 ply on my roof STAGGERED [even the dade county code is 1 layer nailed] no nails only screws and glue on my roof no tarpaper only peal&stick plasti

Posted Images

3 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

Does not matter the "Weather Channel" will hype up every possible scenario of fear and destruction....they have become a caricature of themselves ….only tune in for comic relief 

Most people perceive that hurricanes seem to end up at about  75-80% of the actual wind strength and 50-60% of the actual storm surge as forecast by TWC, making it hard to decide if evacuation is prudent or not.

Would be great to see a study (not funded by TWC) about their forecasts vs the reality of what really happened for the past 20 years worth of hurricanes; it seems that as time has progressed TWC has become less accurate even as the measurements and modeling have become more precise.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Twice in a year?

    We got hit twice in 10 days on St John... I lumped all the damages from both storms to my boat when I filed my insurance claim. The insurance looked at it and somehow decided that they would just make me pay TWO deductibles even though there was no way they could tell that the damages were distributed over two named storms! 

Irma and Maria hit St John 6 days apart just a couple of years ago. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

2004, I and my family got tagged by three out of four hurricanes that crossed Florida.  

Charlie - Evacuated to Orlando, direct hit

Francis - Stayed in Tampa, direct hit

Jeanne - Evacuated to Ridge Manor, North of Tampa, direct hit

Ivan was the only one that we did not get hit by, because it crossed Florida further South, but it did draw a nice circle around most of Florida:

Ivan_2004_track.png

I was warry, warry quiet, as the Hurricane was hunting, but could not get a bearing on me!

Wife then proclaimed that Hurricanes don't like me and try to stalk me down.

Irma was the last one to tag me, again in evacuated to Ridge Manor.

- Stumbling

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

looks like a replay of Mathew a couple years ago.

 

in the mid 80s I attended a conference at MIT hosted by Dr Danny Hillis of that esteemed university.

He was tying 64,000 386 intel chips together and about to release the same design with the brand new 486 chips.

AMEX and the US Govt were his big customers.

When asked what do we need all this compute power for, he said:   I want to be able to schedule my daughter's wedding based on a nice day  the day after she is born.

i want to run the maps around the world every day for 30 years into the future and know the best day for the outdoor reception.

 

All these weather teams were talking the storm heading WEST into the Gulf as of THURSDAY.

It would decimate D.R. and P.R.

Here we are on Saturday and they are now plotting 90 degrees in a different direction.

We have not come very far in forecasting as Dr Hillis envisioned 35 years ago..

 

TWC is clueless on this one.

Standing with their dick in their hands live in places that are untouched.

Cantori is now going out to the barrier islands looking for weather.

Typical spin and hubris of the media to the point you have no clue what news they are delivering 24 hours a day.

A darn shame for the people who just want to be safe..

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Foreverslow said:

We have not come very far in forecasting as Dr Hillis envisioned 35 years ago..

I don't watch TWC. So I will not comment on their coverage. The storm has been inside the NHC three day prediction all along. I think even in this particularly poor case they're close to being inside the 5 day cone at the moment. It is what it is.  NHC has been upfront about the skill of their predictions. This one has been difficult. In general, they're much better at this than they were 35 years ago.

image.png.010c531fe5a66d96b5607f772c142d32.png

image.png.b407486e43d1258cb3de996dcae16e37.png

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, weightless said:

I don't watch TWC. So I will not comment on their coverage. The storm has been inside the NHC three day prediction all along. I think even in this particularly poor case they're close to being inside the 5 day cone at the moment. It is what it is.  NHC has been upfront about the skill of their predictions. This one has been difficult. In general, they're much better at this than they were 35 years ago.

image.png.010c531fe5a66d96b5607f772c142d32.png

image.png.b407486e43d1258cb3de996dcae16e37.png

 

 

Same. Don't watch the weather channel, just rely on NHC and tropical tidbits. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Jules said:

I'm really sorry, Tom.  I only intended to bring Dorian down to tropical storm level, not scare it away.

On another note, my crystal ball is seeing garage sales on bottled water, plywood and brand new generators.

Looks like some wind on Wednesday but not what I had in mind. Oh well.

The going rate for putting up storm shutters was about $30 per window on Facebook yesterday.

Home Despot had a whole bunch of 6.5 kw generators in the main aisle today.

8 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

Three hours of driving north on I 95 NC into Virginia just now - at least 200 utility trucks already heading southward

They should probably park 'em and wait to see what's next. Two days ago, Florida had a real problem brewing. Now it looks like Jules has taken care of that problem.

At least for us. I'd be very worried in the Abacos right now...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Pray for the people is Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island they will be experiencing Hurricane Cat 3-5 force winds for 24 hours, unimaginable terror, and when Dorian has past see horrific destruction to both structures and plant life much of which will never return

 

DorGB.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, garuda3 said:

european model shows it going to about 160 Kts, ( 210 mph) 

05L_intensity_latest.png

The northern Bahamas  will need IMMEDIATE help....especially water....they are basically low lying barren rock with small trees and shrubbery...all of which will be denuded and much will never come back to life  

Link to post
Share on other sites

My son’s mother-in-law has a place on Guana Cay, likely won’t be there when this is done. She’s gone to Great Abaco to a friends place on higher ground.  

Hoping for the best. My D-in-law is a wreck.

BFC9E441-BC4E-416F-BE98-572E5E64E362.jpeg

Link to post
Share on other sites

I flew a plane to Harbour Island right after Andrew came across. It was a site, pretty much every leaf had been blown off every shrub and tree. I had as many flashlights, batteries, and cases of water as I thought the plane could lift and it was very much appreciated. We actually had a hard time finding our way around, everything looked different.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I flew a plane to Harbour Island right after Andrew came across. It was a site, pretty much every leaf had been blown off every shrub and tree. I had as many flashlights, batteries, and cases of water as I thought the plane could lift and it was very much appreciated. We actually had a hard time finding our way around, everything looked different.

I pray the landing strip at  Marsh Harbor has safely secured heavy equipment for clearing the runway and that the asphalt has not floated off the limestone base...I think Freeport has a concrete runway....barges filled with water tank trucks strapped to their decks need to be readied in the US ASAP

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Sean said:

My son’s mother-in-law has a place on Guana Cay, likely won’t be there when this is done. She’s gone to Great Abaco to a friends place on higher ground.  

Hoping for the best. My D-in-law is a wreck.

BFC9E441-BC4E-416F-BE98-572E5E64E362.jpeg

good luck to your family, 

hope they rebuild Nippers

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Sean said:

For reference -

847E0BE2-AFB7-497F-8E43-AC54D82263C2.jpeg

It is important to understand that the numbers in the chart represent peak intensity and not necessarily the intensity at landfall. Katrina for example was just a CAT 3 when it came ashore...

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

It is important to understand that the numbers in the chart represent peak intensity and not necessarily the intensity at landfall. Katrina for example was just a CAT 3 when it came ashore...

Also important to understand its a big fuckin storm 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

It is important to understand that the numbers in the chart represent peak intensity and not necessarily the intensity at landfall. Katrina for example was just a CAT 3 when it came ashore...

Doesn’t help the folks in the Northern Bahamas. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Sean said:

My son’s mother-in-law has a place on Guana Cay, likely won’t be there when this is done. She’s gone to Great Abaco to a friends place on higher ground.  

Hoping for the best. My D-in-law is a wreck.

BFC9E441-BC4E-416F-BE98-572E5E64E362.jpeg

First world problem ! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 
· 42 mins · 
 
 
 
A dropsonde in the NE eyewall of Dorian just measured a surface wind of 202 mph. Dropsonde measurements are instantaneous, so this is probably a gust, but wow.... Forecast below for Abaco Islands
 
 
 
 

ddor.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, weightless said:

GOES16_1km_ir_201909011735_22.25_30.75_-

Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Dorian made landfall in Elbow Cay in The Bahamas at 12:40 pm EDT Sunday with 185 mph winds, gusting to 220 mph, making it the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record. In the 8-hour period ending at 12:45 pm EDT Sunday, Dorian put on a rare show of rapid intensification—its already-formidable 150 mph winds increased to 185 mph, and the central pressure dropped from 934 to 911 mb.

Dorian’s forward speed of 8 mph this morning is expected to slow to just 4 mph tonight, causing an unprecedented long-duration battering of The Bahamas by one of the most extreme hurricanes in history. On Great Abaco and Little Abaco islands, hurricane-force winds will likely blow for 12 - 15 consecutive hours, interrupted only by the passage of the calm eye. For several hours, Category 5 winds in excess of 160 mph are likely, which will be capable of destroying all but the most rigorously designed concrete steel-reinforced structures. Dorian may wobble enough to the northwest to prevent Grand Bahama Island from receiving such a long pounding, but that island is still likely to experience extreme damage.

 

.

.

Elbow Cay is a 2-3 nmiles south of Hopetown....I've rented a house on Elbow back in the day

Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

You would make 10 knots under bare pole....

 

I talked to a round-the-world cruiser who said her and her husband's max boat speed ever was under bare poles....

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Too bad that conch season closure just ended.

D-amty5WwAEQgbx.jpg:large

 

     Any conch are now probably blown up in the mangrove tops. 

 

Conch are going to be the least of worries after Dorian but it is an important food source for the Islanders. 

Much of the mangrove will be killed off as well as tree and shrubbery ... these are modern Bahamians ...grocery store... this is going to be so heartbreaking to watch in the coming days 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Here is some coverage from Marsh Harbour as the eyewall approached. Amazing that power and cell service lasted as long as it did to allow such reports to get out.

This gal has balls that make Jim Cantore look like a eunuch! Studio producers back on the mainland finally told her to get to the bunker.

https://t.co/WLpWCGNcPr

That was 1 1/2 hours BEFORE the eye passed over Elbow Cay 5 miles to the east... time stamp shows 11 AM

Link to post
Share on other sites

All these videos from the eye of Dorian showing devastating destruction, and they are only half way through it.

The NHC director reminded us of the fact the centerline path predicted for Dorian is + or - 70 miles.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

This gal has balls that make Jim Cantore look like a eunuch! Studio producers back on the mainland finally told her to get to the bunker.

And when they have to seek safety, it goes back to the studios where these big strong guys take over in perfect safety.  Hats off to Rebecca and her crew.  Hope they are safe.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jules said:

If that's in the eye, where the hell are those people going to hide in round 2?

Lots of potential flying projectiles awaiting flight

Link to post
Share on other sites

185 mph

They are saying it is like a direct hit of a ef 3 tornado.

Except it is a bigger size hurricane.

and instead of lasting 15 seconds, it  will last several hours.

Pray for the folks...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, DryArmour said:

You would make 10 knots under bare pole....

 

For amusement, for 186 MPH winds, take the "sail area" of your boat's hull and spars and rigging and multiply it times maybe 80 PSF and compare that to your displacement.  Codes don't bother to go that high.  

At that pressure, 2-story house on the shoreline 20' high times 30' wide might get 50,000# first pushing and then pulling.  A 2,400 SF 2-story wood framed house might weigh about 30,000#.  

th-1.jpeg.6f3266a68445956344204864e61715ff.jpeg

Hurricane_Wind_Load_Chart1.thumb.jpg.1e826aa681d8a4d4b2c267afc9265657.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

According to Levi (video above), the HWRF model needing serious consideration.  The lower level winds are pushing it to the Florida coast.  The upper level winds will be pushing it away so it makes that projected turn north.  At it's present strength, the height of the storm will catch the upper level winds enough to make that turn north.  But as the hurricane weakens, the height decreases and that could mean the upper level winds may not be sufficient to overcome the lower level push to the coast.  If that happens, there could be a landfall around the Space Coast.

1653166291_hwrf_tcx_05L_361.thumb.png.858cb725316747c1810263c6f771292f.png

I learn more in 5 minutes on Tropical Tidbits than 5 days on TWC.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Jules said:

According to Levi (video above), the HWRF model needing serious consideration.  The lower level winds are pushing it to the Florida coast.  The upper level winds will be pushing it away so it makes that projected turn north.  At it's present strength, the height of the storm will catch the upper level winds enough to make that turn north.  But as the hurricane weakens, the height decreases and that could mean the upper level winds may not be sufficient to overcome the lower level push to the coast.  If that happens, there could be a landfall around the Space Coast.

1653166291_hwrf_tcx_05L_361.thumb.png.858cb725316747c1810263c6f771292f.png

I learn more in 5 minutes on Tropical Tidbits than 5 days on TWC.

It's in the last quarter of the video. Especially the visualization of the cut-through really caught my eye. 

To me (rather amateur in meteorology, but trained in visualization of data), his comparison shows pretty well that the Euro and GFS models may not provide the necessary resolution and the the HWRF model may contain some overlooked details.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Matagi said:

To me (rather amateur in meteorology, but trained in visualization of data), his comparison shows pretty well that the Euro model may not provide the necessary resolution and the the HWRF model may contain some overlooked details.

As I understand it -- and for sure I'm a bit confused -- there are three bits to Levi's feeling that HWRF might be onto something. First, because Dorian is slow moving GFS, which does not take ocean mixing from the storm into account may be overestimating the strength. Second, the EC which does take mixing into account may not have the spacial or temporal resolution to fully account for the impact (I'm not exactly sure if that's what he was saying and I'm less sure it's correct, but it's sorta what I got). Third, a less powerful storm will be more driven by lower level steering forces and they tend to set Dorian West.

While this seems plausible to me I think it's also worth taking into account that HWRF has not even been as "skillful" as the global models in either intensity or track with Dorian so far. Also, with the storm moving at 3 knots details of steering forces that are too small even for the meso scale models to see may well determine the positioning for the next day or two. So, while the HWRF solution is plausible and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand, I don't think it is obviously better than the EC or GFS solutions at this point.  More to the point I'm not sure Levi was arguing that HWRF was more likely than GFS / EC so much as it deserves consideration as a possibility.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The eye wall looks like it will be impacting the length of Grand Bahama island at 90 degrees...I just woke up thinking there are people in the Abacos dead and dying ,gravely injured, cold and wet in the dark with hurricane force winds still blowing and NO help really arriving for 36 more hours....sorrow beyond description

Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

The eye wall looks like it will be impacting the length of Grand Bahama island at 90 degrees...I just woke up thinking there are people in the Abacos dead and dying ,gravely injured, cold and wet in the dark with hurricane force winds still blowing and NO help really arriving for 36 more hours....sorrow beyond description

 No doubt Bravo, very sad.

  I've cruised the Abaco's a number of times and love that place as well.  I'm hoping for the best.

  Just the thought of open exposure to 180+ kts for prolonged time frames is unimaginable,  would be like hell on earth... 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The above video is of Hopetown harbor....the below screenshot is before....I would not be surprised if there are many breaches in the islands all over Dorians path with new passes created....I was first in Hopetown in 1966 as a HS kid flown in to Treasure Cay to help bring back a Hinckley....Hopetown was not much then and still run by British citizens...

 

Screenshot_(62).png

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

The eye wall looks like it will be impacting the length of Grand Bahama island at 90 degrees...I just woke up thinking there are people in the Abacos dead and dying ,gravely injured, cold and wet in the dark with hurricane force winds still blowing and NO help really arriving for 36 more hours....sorrow beyond description

Been thinking the same thing.  From where I've been sitting, had I been on the northern islands I would have evacuated but some of these people don't know how to escape or have the means to do so.  Why we, or someone, didn't help them evacuate, I don't know.  My heart just breaks for these people.

Never in my life have I ever heard of any storm system moving 1 MPH.  Maybe the only saving grace for this slow moving storm is it will give those living in structures too damaged to handle the second half of the storm a chance to find something that survived the first half. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Jules said:

Been thinking the same thing.  From where I've been sitting, had I been on the northern islands I would have evacuated but some of these people don't know how to escape or have the means to do so.  Why we, or someone, didn't help them evacuate, I don't know.  My heart just breaks for these people.

Never in my life have I ever heard of any storm system moving 1 MPH.  Maybe the only saving grace for this slow moving storm is it will give those living in structures too damaged to handle the second half of the storm a chance to find something that survived the first half. 

There really is no practical way to evacuate everyone without a lead time a lot longer than the accurate forecasts. Also true in Florida.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

There really is no practical way to evacuate everyone without a lead time a lot longer than the accurate forecasts. Also true in Florida.

Getting help in is going to be very difficult....just saw video both Marsh Harbor and Freeport airport are under 5' of standing water.....need to send a USMC helo equipped assault ship

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

When we landed in North Eleuthera we had no idea if we were going to be able to or not and likewise had no idea about gas. When we go there the Royal Marines had just cleared the runway but had no comms to tell anyone. All kinds of shit was all over the runway not long before.

A team of SeaBees or similar with a helo need to be on the way the second the weather clears.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

When we landed in North Eleuthera we had no idea if we were going to be able to or not and likewise had no idea about gas. When we go there the Royal Marines had just cleared the runway but had no comms to tell anyone. All kinds of shit was all over the runway not long before.

A team of SeaBees or similar with a helo need to be on the way the second the weather clears.

Yep...too much for Nassau to handle..I am going to stop posting videos as there are many coming out now....

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, can't be that bad. Even tough the Big Orange canceled a state trip but went golfing instead and Cat. 5 at landfall is only a rumor (even though 4 happened in the US during his time) according to him.

Joking  aside: Stay save everybody. This looks pretty serious regarding of landfall or not. Unimaginable to have storm like this sitting on top of oneself for a prolonged time.

Link to post
Share on other sites