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4 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

This is ebay not yachtworld...but look at this Cheoy Lee Perry 44. Ain't she purty?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1980-Cheoy-Lee-44-Cutter/283802519387?hash=item4213f2c75b:g:PtAAAOSwxbpeXa6r

s-l1600.jpg

Well, what would one expect...She’s from the board of our own Bob

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Something must be wrong with me.  I don't really "lust." I rarely lust after other homes. Other locations? Occasionally, but only a tiny bit.  My home and property are great. Visitors often tell

Ummm, I don't suppose you've noticed that this is CRUISING anarchy? It involves the pure joy of cruising with furniture. I'm 65 and sail a 48', 30,000#, wooden sailboat with my 64 year old wife. The w

Ted Hood always seem to manage to steal my heart.  First the Little Harbor series and now this: https://www.lymanmorse.com/sailing_yacht/hood-lyman-morse-60-windwalker-ii/

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Ya know...... I love wood boats.  I love classics like the Rozinante.  But as someone who contemplates having a custom boat built (from time to time), I would never go with traditional construction.  Here will be a great boat at an awesome price, but...I wouldn't touch it.  Same thing with the Folkboat the School built a year or so ago.  (already on the market by the (presumably) first owner.   The dream is fun, the reality is, well, not so much....   (unless you have a history of puttering, building, fixing and regular wood boat type maintenance).

Give me cold molded, epoxy and a bit of glass sheathing perhaps, as well as an awlgrip type paint job.  Now I can go sailing...  Mebbe even afford to have someone do a little springtime freshening up.  Way back in the recesses of my brain are memories of sanding, caulking, painting, varnishing, leaking garboards, a rotted transom.....  (my body aches just thinking about it....nope, can't do it.....)

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26 minutes ago, Veeger said:

Ya know...... I love wood boats.  I love classics like the Rozinante.  But as someone who contemplates having a custom boat built (from time to time), I would never go with traditional construction.  Here will be a great boat at an awesome price, but...I wouldn't touch it.  Same thing with the Folkboat the School built a year or so ago.  (already on the market by the (presumably) first owner.   The dream is fun, the reality is, well, not so much....   (unless you have a history of puttering, building, fixing and regular wood boat type maintenance).

Give me cold molded, epoxy and a bit of glass sheathing perhaps, as well as an awlgrip type paint job.  Now I can go sailing...  Mebbe even afford to have someone do a little springtime freshening up.  Way back in the recesses of my brain are memories of sanding, caulking, painting, varnishing, leaking garboards, a rotted transom.....  (my body aches just thinking about it....nope, can't do it.....)

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

On the other hand, if it's a new build, and you happen to be an old geezer, it won't be your problem, it will be your executor's problem. Problem solved!

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Just to be clear, you will not likely save any money having the school build you a wood boat, but you will have a very interesting and rewarding experience. And it will take longer than having Betts do it. Cheers!

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5 hours ago, Bull City said:

Here is a lust-worthy entry to this thread. A Herreshoff Rozinante under construction at the Northwest School of Wooden Boat Building.

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2019/custom-herreshoff-rozinante--3247836/

image.thumb.png.421baf597309ce9e59732762af0e9366.png

Owned a Rozinante for years. actually lived aboard for 2 years.  Magical sailing boat like no other.  Last time I saw my old boat she was totally pimped and in Port Townsend.  The sailing yacht RoseMary.  I would have one today on the mooring for sailing around the Juans' if my pockets were a little deeper.  As anyone who has sailed a proper double ender (calling Kim) the wake off the stern is mesmerizing.

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9 minutes ago, zenmasterfred said:

Owned a Rozinante for years. actually lived aboard for 2 years.  Magical sailing boat like no other.  Last time I saw my old boat she was totally pimped and in Port Townsend.  The sailing yacht RoseMary.  I would have one today on the mooring for sailing around the Juans' if my pockets were a little deeper.  As anyone who has sailed a proper double ender (calling Kim) the wake off the stern is mesmerizing.

Very True!

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12 hours ago, Bull City said:

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

On the other hand, if it's a new build, and you happen to be an old geezer, it won't be your problem, it will be your executor's problem. Problem solved!

That thought HAS crossed my mind.  Not sure I'm quite geezerish enough just yet tho:o

8 hours ago, kimbottles said:

Just to be clear, you will not likely save any money having the school build you a wood boat, but you will have a very interesting and rewarding experience. And it will take longer than having Betts do it. Cheers!

Yes.  Time.  One of the reasons that I'll have to decide soon.  I don't want to wait another couple years to get back out sailing...cuz then I might truly BE geezerish enough....

It would be nice to have Jim build in my 'almost' backyard, but I don't think he does much cold molded these days.  (he also seems to have a steady backlog....or not?)

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On 3/10/2020 at 6:28 AM, Veeger said:

That thought HAS crossed my mind.  Not sure I'm quite geezerish enough just yet tho:o

Yes.  Time.  One of the reasons that I'll have to decide soon.  I don't want to wait another couple years to get back out sailing...cuz then I might truly BE geezerish enough....

It would be nice to have Jim build in my 'almost' backyard, but I don't think he does much cold molded these days.  (he also seems to have a steady backlog....or not?)

There is always Eric Jespersen, also close by.

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With the global meltdown going on do you suppose now is a good time to go boat shopping?

Certainly someone somewhere has my next boat and is shitting bricks.

Every cloud has its silver lining.

 

Edit: After typing that I realized there might be a whole slew of people thinking of buying a boat and bugging out. Damnit!

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7 minutes ago, bmiller said:

With the global meltdown going on do you suppose now is a good time to go boat shopping?

Certainly someone somewhere has my next boat and is shitting bricks.

Every cloud has its silver lining.

 

Edit: After typing that I realized there might be a whole slew of people thinking of buying a boat and bugging out. Damnit!

Great idea.  Get a boat, head out...     Where do you go?  Ports are restricting entry - even for privately owned vessels.  You may not even be allowed to return to your point of origin.  How many months of meals can you carry with you? 

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2 minutes ago, PaulK said:

Great idea.  Get a boat, head out...     Where do you go?  Ports are restricting entry - even for privately owned vessels.  You may not even be allowed to return to your point of origin.  How many months of meals can you carry with you? 

Hey, don't harsh my buzz Mr every silver lining has its cloud.

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6 hours ago, bmiller said:

Hey, don't harsh my buzz Mr every silver lining has its cloud.

I think you are spot on with boat prices but I'd wait 6-12 mths.
Only problem is you need to be financially secure beyond the property and stock markets. If you have cash under the mattress there will be bargains galore.

 

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20 hours ago, PaulK said:

Great idea.  Get a boat, head out...     Where do you go?  Ports are restricting entry - even for privately owned vessels.  You may not even be allowed to return to your point of origin.  How many months of meals can you carry with you? 

This sounds like the Rimas Plan.

I wonder what happened to him.

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On 3/16/2020 at 2:50 AM, paps49 said:

I think you are spot on with boat prices but I'd wait 6-12 mths.
Only problem is you need to be financially secure beyond the property and stock markets. If you have cash under the mattress there will be bargains galore.

 

I've been pondering this very thing. Got a wild hair and looked at a Passport 40 this weekend. Not really in the market but just decided to indulge my fantasy about a bluewater boat for the heck of it. Then yesterday I found myself wondering what the owner would do if I offered half asking price for cash...   :blink:  Must stop having these thoughts.

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1 hour ago, Israel Hands said:

I've been pondering this very thing. Got a wild hair and looked at a Passport 40 this weekend. Not really in the market but just decided to indulge my fantasy about a bluewater boat for the heck of it. Then yesterday I found myself wondering what the owner would do if I offered half asking price for cash...   :blink:  Must stop having these thoughts.

When I first brought this up it wasn't that I was wishing doom on anyone. It's just the reality of the situation. There will be people wanting to unload unnecessary and burdensome things in their lives. In fact a buyer is a godsend for some people.

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2 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

I've been pondering this very thing. Got a wild hair and looked at a Passport 40 this weekend. Not really in the market but just decided to indulge my fantasy about a bluewater boat for the heck of it. Then yesterday I found myself wondering what the owner would do if I offered half asking price for cash...   :blink:  Must stop having these thoughts.

 

47 minutes ago, bmiller said:

When I first brought this up it wasn't that I was wishing doom on anyone. It's just the reality of the situation. There will be people wanting to unload unnecessary and burdensome things in their lives. In fact a buyer is a godsend for some people.

I would not want to be desperate to sell anything right now. Sure, the stock market will probably recover in 6 to 12 months, bringing more buyers back into the market, but you would still have carrying costs, and it's not likely that your asset will have appreciated in value. The only bright spot right now is that interest rates are low.

So, if you're a buyer with cash, make the low-ball offer, borrow the money for nothing, and throw your cash into the stock market. :D

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47 minutes ago, bmiller said:

When I first brought this up it wasn't that I was wishing doom on anyone. It's just the reality of the situation. There will be people wanting to unload unnecessary and burdensome things in their lives. In fact a buyer is a godsend for some people.

I agree. I meant that I must stop having these thoughts because I have no business buying a bigger boat. Especially without selling the current one!  On the other hand, if there is a way in the next year or so to buy a "dream boat" at a great price while taking a burden off something else, it would be a great thing.

If annual overhead (dockage, maintenance, misc) is say $10K per year "real cash" being spent, there are a lot of people who will be willing to part with their 1980s-vintage boats, because the boats start to look more and more like money pits to them. It becomes easier to lower the price substantially than to continue to write those checks during a recession.  If you don't sail it much, would you rather keep writing those checks, or take a grand vacation?

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We're in the process of selling our boat - deposit accepted, through survey, hoping to close in the coming days.  No signs of cold feet so far... 

I'm looking at larger boats (mostly 45-50'), some of which have been on the market for quite a while.  Hard to say how/if the situation will impact their pricing.  A lot of the sellers seem to be retired & realizing that it's time to get out of the game, but maybe not desperate or even too eager to sell.  Selling your last boat has to be hard, and a lowball might be rejected even if taking it is the rational response (which it may or may not be).  

On the other hand, there's at least one guy who bought a new boat before selling his old one... I think he'd be pretty responsive to a pile of cash on the table.  

Quick look at boat loan rates shows they're still close to 5%, so ~3% after the tax deduction.  If they come down a bit more then preserving the cash pile to buy the dip isn't a terrible idea if one likes to live on the edge a bit.  

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9 hours ago, bmiller said:

Is there anyway to find out what a boat recently sold for off YW?

Two things

A. Asking prices are just that: asking prices. What the boat really sold for is a different matter. This has never been more true than these days. 

Expect the market to fall drastically. I'd say, next autumn/winter, you'll get boats for a little plus the towaway cost from the yard in 'okayish' shape. Think of all the charter companies going bust now. A nightmare.

B. There are many better things you will need your money for in the near future, say 18 mths. Toilet paper. Rice. Medication. 

Flowers, sadly.

I would only invest in a boat if its a comfortable liveaboard situation that you envision and get from the boat.

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On 3/10/2020 at 5:28 AM, Veeger said:

That thought HAS crossed my mind.  Not sure I'm quite geezerish enough just yet tho:o

Yes.  Time.  One of the reasons that I'll have to decide soon.  I don't want to wait another couple years to get back out sailing...cuz then I might truly BE geezerish enough....

It would be nice to have Jim build in my 'almost' backyard, but I don't think he does much cold molded these days.  (he also seems to have a steady backlog....or not?)

Lots of off the radar people in the PNW who can build a boat. I can think of a certain kid in PT who would be at the top of my list for a new coldmolded hull.  If you poke around there is more out there than the well known shops.  It probably requires more leg work, logistics and dividing the project between different people or businesses.  

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2 hours ago, ghost37 said:

Alright here's my submission. The Mason 44 is, to me, one of the prettiest out there. I've lusted after this one in particular after the owners' articles in various magazines. 

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1990/mason-44-3642323/

Unfucking believable that one hasn't sunk yet.  Put in an offer now, and if she's not currently on the hard, she'll be gone by the time your surveyor gets there.

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9 minutes ago, European Bloke said:

Unfucking believable that one hasn't sunk yet.  Put in an offer now, and if she's not currently on the hard, she'll be gone by the time your surveyor gets there.

mason44.thumb.png.4f8d2a5eba1dd13b638a2886df3e233b.png

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Personal trip down memory lane: my parents' boat when I was a kid, which I recently discovered is now available for purchase, many years after their passing.

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1972/little-harbor-hood-maas-custom-60-3652933/

Unfortunately my wife has vetoed a family reunion, in part because we'd likely need a full-time captain and in part because she displaces five and a half Sabre 402s.  Some great memories, though - maybe yours someday!

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1 hour ago, ChrisJD said:

Personal trip down memory lane: my parents' boat when I was a kid, which I recently discovered is now available for purchase, many years after their passing.

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1972/little-harbor-hood-maas-custom-60-3652933/

Unfortunately my wife has vetoed a family reunion, in part because we'd likely need a full-time captain and in part because she displaces five and a half Sabre 402s.  Some great memories, though - maybe yours someday!

Now that is a New England sailor's wet dream.

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23 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

Damn our parents for leaving most of us in a less-affluent world than they had.

 

...and damn us for doing the same to our kids.:mellow:

My favorite Philip Larkin poem:

They fuck you up, your mum and dad.   
    They may not mean to, but they do.   
They fill you with the faults they had
    And add some extra, just for you.
 
But they were fucked up in their turn
    By fools in old-style hats and coats,   
Who half the time were soppy-stern
    And half at one another’s throats.
 
Man hands on misery to man.
    It deepens like a coastal shelf.
Get out as early as you can,
    And don’t have any kids yourself.
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2 hours ago, ChrisJD said:

My favorite Philip Larkin poem:

They fuck you up, your mum and dad.   
    They may not mean to, but they do.   
They fill you with the faults they had
    And add some extra, just for you.
 
But they were fucked up in their turn
    By fools in old-style hats and coats,   
Who half the time were soppy-stern
    And half at one another’s throats.
 
Man hands on misery to man.
    It deepens like a coastal shelf.
Get out as early as you can,
    And don’t have any kids yourself.

It's always the fault of the previous generation. :rolleyes:

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11 hours ago, Bull City said:

mason44.thumb.png.4f8d2a5eba1dd13b638a2886df3e233b.png

If you're over far enough to get water in the companionway of a M44 you've got bigger issues to deal with than the fact that it's offset.....

That particular one is owned by very accomplished sailors, bee all over in her.

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1 hour ago, Fleetwood said:

If you're over far enough to get water in the companionway of a M44 you've got bigger issues to deal with than the fact that it's offset.....

You're not from around here are you? ;)

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10 hours ago, ChrisJD said:

Personal trip down memory lane: my parents' boat when I was a kid, which I recently discovered is now available for purchase, many years after their passing.

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1972/little-harbor-hood-maas-custom-60-3652933/

Unfortunately my wife has vetoed a family reunion, in part because we'd likely need a full-time captain and in part because she displaces five and a half Sabre 402s.  Some great memories, though - maybe yours someday!

wow, provision that beauty and shelter in place anywhere you want in comfort.

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2 hours ago, us7070 said:

but i wonder how real those prices actually are

what's to stop a broker listing a false sales price on YW?

 

What would the motivation be?  The deal is done.  Its a way better system then looking at the asking prices.   My broker always sends me the reports on a specific make and model when we are searching.

-Marc

 

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1 hour ago, Student_Driver said:

All the prices on YW are fantasies now. With Q2 GDP down 30%, a large number of boat owners will need to sell.  Prices will drop for a time.  Question is whether hyperinflation is next. 

Not hyperinflation but with another couple of trillion going to be added to the trillion they already gave the corporations you can expect significant inflation for the foreseeable future.

Money is already worth about 1/10th of what it was when I stated working - I imagine that will occur again. People will routinely get paid 1/4 mil a year before long.

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8 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Money is already worth about 1/10th of what it was when I stated working - I imagine that will occur again. People will routinely get paid 1/4 mil a year before long.

I agree.

Mid 1960s. Button down shirt $5.00; Bass Weejun penny loafers: $12; silk necktie: $2.50; Suit: $50-60 Gas: $0.30; Tartan 27: $9,000; VW Beetle: $ 1,100.

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56 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Not hyperinflation but with another couple of trillion going to be added to the trillion they already gave the corporations you can expect significant inflation for the foreseeable future.

Money is already worth about 1/10th of what it was when I stated working - I imagine that will occur again. People will routinely get paid 1/4 mil a year before long.

Inflation in everyday items we need.  Deflation in assets that no one 'needs'....

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5 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Not hyperinflation but with another couple of trillion going to be added to the trillion they already gave the corporations you can expect significant inflation for the foreseeable future.

Money is already worth about 1/10th of what it was when I stated working - I imagine that will occur again. People will routinely get paid 1/4 mil a year before long.

Uh-Oh, this risks activating my inner economics nerd…

It’s hard to imagine how inflation could result from the current crisis, since a huge chunk of consumers (and businesses) have lost their incomes, or at minimum will see them drastically curtailed.  A great deal will depend on how long this lasts. But even pumping multiple trillions into the US economy may not fill the hole being created, let alone create inflation. Especially so if the vast bulk of assistance doesn’t go directly to the people who have lost their incomes, but to major corporations or the financial sector in the hope it will filter down. 

What you are looking at, when you expect falling boat prices, is deflation. There may be a lot of folks who can’t pay their mortgages or other bills, and need to sell. Or who are willing (or forced) to sell their labor more cheaply than they might have a couple of months ago. Or who can’t work at all. Less money is available to those who otherwise might like to buy- or hire. Money has value when it circulates. If everybody, all at once, gets fearful and just sits on their cash, you have a recession. Generally that means asset prices falling. The tried and true way of fixing a recession is to throw a bunch of money out there- enough that people stop hoarding- and get them spending again. 

But we could possibly also have scarcity from inability to produce goods & services if this goes on very long. That is a counter force that is inflationary. 

It’s possible that, if enough money is shoveled freely out to consumers without many of them able to go back to productive work, that demand could outstrip supply and provide inflationary pressure. Personally I doubt that is likely in political terms, I’d guess we will be lucky to get enough stimulus to keep the economy staggering- stagnation is a risk. There is lots of resistance to just giving people money, even when it is clearly the right thing to keep the economy functioning. But my crystal ball is pretty cloudy, and this is a very unusual situation.

Modest inflation of a couple of percent indicates a heathy economy. We have had relatively few periods of high inflation in my lifetime, and inflation over the last few decades has been very low- many would argue too low.  Price differentials are amusing (my first job was $1.35/ hour, my 1970 college tuition was $100 per quarter), but if you have even 2% inflation, compounded over 50+ years, you are talking about a big change in dollar numbers. More telling is what you can buy with an hour of labor. 

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I am 71 years old, yet I can still remember my 7th grade core teacher (taught history, English, spelling and reading in one three hour daily session) explaining to us that inflation was not such a bad thing.  He lived through the Great Depression and knew the effects of a severely depressed economy.  This was just one of many small tidbits he threw in extra during the course of our daily lessons

Mr. Dunn, of all things, having followed in your footsteps as a teacher I can say the lessons you taught us, go far beyond the expected and you remain the finest of inspirations in my life.  

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9 hours ago, Oceanconcepts said:

Uh-Oh, this risks activating my inner economics nerd…

It’s hard to imagine how inflation could result from the current crisis, since a huge chunk of consumers (and businesses) have lost their incomes, or at minimum will see them drastically curtailed.  A great deal will depend on how long this lasts. But even pumping multiple trillions into the US economy may not fill the hole being created, let alone create inflation. Especially so if the vast bulk of assistance doesn’t go directly to the people who have lost their incomes, but to major corporations or the financial sector in the hope it will filter down. 

What you are looking at, when you expect falling boat prices, is deflation. There may be a lot of folks who can’t pay their mortgages or other bills, and need to sell. Or who are willing (or forced) to sell their labor more cheaply than they might have a couple of months ago.

More money being printed means it will have less value - period.

Think back to the last crisis - boats & houses went incredibly cheap - for a short time, couple of years at most.

Now think of prices in general now - what costs the same or similar to what it cost 10 years ago?

Did a decent burger cost $20 back then?

Did loaded pickup trucks clear $100K?

The negative economic hit from this will be very short term but the inflation, added to the existing inflation will be big. Not 1980 big but pretty big.

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4 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

More money being printed means it will have less value - period.

Think back to the last crisis - boats & houses went incredibly cheap - for a short time, couple of years at most.

Now think of prices in general now - what costs the same or similar to what it cost 10 years ago?

Did a decent burger cost $20 back then?

Did loaded pickup trucks clear $100K?

The negative economic hit from this will be very short term but the inflation, added to the existing inflation will be big. Not 1980 big but pretty big.

In our area there has been an incredible economic boom over the last decade. That creates localized higher prices. That’s not true everywhere, and many areas have not yet completely recovered from 2008. Inflation overall has not met even the Fed’s target on average since the recovery really began around 2010. Cars & trucks aren’t good barometers, since they have rapidly become much more feature rich- as the market has demanded. Overall inflation since the recovery started has been very low, less than 2%. Some economists predicted runaway inflation form the 2008-10 stimulus, but it just did not happen. Their models did not fit well with observed reality. And the economies that practiced “austerity” remained in recession far longer, with much weaker recoveries & are still suffering lower growth as a result.

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More money being printed means it will have less value - period.

There is an element of truth there, but the reality is more complex. Money is a social convention, a medium of exchange and a store of value, it is not wealth. It only works when it circulates.  More money in circulation in a “normal” economy can create inflationary pressure. But in a recession the issue is that money isn’t circulating, so adding more money can help get things moving at a more normal level. That can protect jobs, infrastructure, human capital, and keep the economy from spiraling downwards in a negative feedback loop as it did in the Great Depression. Particularly if the opportunity is taken to invest in infrastructure, education, or research that yields long term benefits. 

It’s important to remember that central banks, or the government, can also remove money from the economy when there is a recovery and inflationary pressure starts to build. The regulator works both ways- there is both a gas pedal and a brake pedal. I’ll use the US as an example, but the same is true for any country that controls their own currency.  US dollars are a fiat currency with a floating interest rate. They are not a limited resource, the government can make more at any time- and is their only source. The only way they come into the economy is for the US government to spend them into existence faster than they receive them back in taxes and fees. This is also known as a deficit, which in fact adds net financial assets to the private sector. A federal government surplus removes dollars from the private sector. This can function as a kind of enforced general savings and is deflationary. 

The fundamental principle is that there should be enough demand (and available money) to utilize the real productive capacity of the economy- not too little, and not too much. In those cases where private demand fails, government can step in and spend- and remember, that spending is only half the picture, government spending is also someone's income. If demand is overheated and inflationary pressure builds, government can step in as well, and lower the money supply, increase taxes, or reduce government spending.  This is not a new insight.  Frédéric Bastiat argued back in the early 1800's that the government should directly employ farmers in times of famine, so they don't starve and leave too few to plant the fields for next season: "As a temporary measure in a time of crisis, during a severe winter, this intervention on the part of the taxpayer could have good effects. It acts in the same way as insurance. It adds nothing to the number of jobs nor to total wages, but it takes labor and wages from ordinary times and doles them out, at a loss it is true, in difficult times."

The thing that makes the current situation potentially unique is that there is not just a collapse of demand caused by sudden unemployment, but also a collapse of supply created by enforced closures. Those forces could work in opposition. It’s also the case that the US government has largely blown off much of our ammunition in advance of meeting the enemy, by passing huge tax cuts and blowing up deficits in a good economy- a time when building reserves would have been prudent.

I doubt anyone knows what lies ahead. Too much depends on how persistent this virus is, if a vaccine is possible (not a foregone conclusion, by any means), and how long shutdowns last. But deflation is far more damaging to far more people than inflation, and past history shows that the tendency is to take these kinds of crisis not seriously enough, and to provide too little economic help at the places it is most needed.

If I were thinking of buying a boat, and had plenty of cash (neither true, unfortunately) I expect the next year might be an attractive time. 

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14 minutes ago, Oceanconcepts said:

 Inflation overall has not met even the Fed’s target on average since the recovery really began around 2010. Cars & trucks aren’t good barometers, since they have rapidly become much more feature rich- as the market has demanded. Overall inflation since the recovery started has been very low, less than 2%.

That is predicated on believing the official inflation figures.

I don't.

My lifelong experience has demonstrated to me that they are very understated.

If you pay attention to what things cost and remember what they used to cost you will form a very different picture compared to the official numbers.

Officially prices are currently 5 or 6 times what they were in 1970 when I started working.

That is, $100 back then is worth around $600 now.

BULL-SHIT!

Name something - anything - that doesn't cost at least 10X as much as back then. O/K, TV's are cheaper but food? cars? houses? gas?

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5 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

More money being printed means it will have less value - period.

Think back to the last crisis - boats & houses went incredibly cheap - for a short time, couple of years at most.

Now think of prices in general now - what costs the same or similar to what it cost 10 years ago?

Did a decent burger cost $20 back then?

Did loaded pickup trucks clear $100K?

The negative economic hit from this will be very short term but the inflation, added to the existing inflation will be big. Not 1980 big but pretty big.

Looking on the bright side, a decent case of inflation will do much to reduce government debt - and I don't mean that sarcastically.

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It's the only thing that will.

But the stupid fuckers keep increasing it at an accelerated rate.

How old were you when you first heard the term "a trillion dollars"?

I was pretty old.

Now it's the new billion.

Hell, back in '72 when Barrett and his socialist horde were first elected they tripled the provincial budget (that's budget, not debt) to 3 $billion. :o

I was of voting age then

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39 minutes ago, Elegua said:

2% over 50 years is a lot.  I think the average rate was about 4-5% 1970 to last year. So that's be around a 6 fold increase. 

Like I said - official figures.

Name something that matters that only costs 6X what it did in '70.

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We'll see what happens to the market generally but nobody "needs" a pleasurecraft. You need lodging, food, taking care of your kids, but from the gather by most of the posters - your aging parents and medication. Nobody "needs" a wet toy. YW btw has a private has their private Sold Boatscom and you can only access that from a benevolent broker that's on their system. But it's by volunteer to put that up on that site. I don't think they cheat on that as why would they but? Also, the Canadian dollar is in the tank, badly, so a 130K CAD boat on the market in Canda comes to approx. 89.5K....today. Problem is the border is basically shut so you can't get there.

  

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2 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Like I said - official figures.

Name something that matters that only costs 6X what it did in '70.

One thing I can definitely say has not gone up 6X is average wages.

I agree that government inflation figures are understated in terms of what we actually experience. There is some motivation for that, since many government benefits and payments are indexed to inflation or the CPI. Then again, the Fed’s targets are expressed in constant terms, so… apples and apples.

Looking at some sites that track historical prices for items (interesting) I’m seeing about a 10X increase in many items since 1970. That’s including a period of very high inflation in the late 70’s and early-mid 80’s, though. We have not seen anything like that since.

You can look at a variety of sources for current inflation figures, some government, some academic, some private, and they are all in general agreement. Some variation depends on how you weight what types of commodities- how often you assume the average family buys a washing machine or a car. Changing consumer behavior also enters in- grass fed organic beef or cheap hamburger? But we have been looking at low inflation rates consistent with a healthy economy for the last couple of decades. 1975-85 not so much.  What happens next is a big question. 

Some figures from an ad tracker site- it's the internet so... 

Gas- local taxes make a big difference (it’s a lot more $ where I am now), but these are AAA’s national averages:

1970 36 cents , 1980 $1.19 , 1990 $1.34 , 2009 $2.051 , 2020 $2.13

Ground beef:

1970 70 cents , 1980 99 cents , 1990 89 cents , 2009 $3.99 , 2020 $4.17

New home:

1970 $23,450.00 , 1980 $68,700.00 , 1990 $123,000.00 , 2008 $238,880 , 2019 $385,000

 

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2 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Like I said - official figures.

Name something that matters that only costs 6X what it did in '70.

Gas averaged 0.36 in 1970.  It's 1.69 at the corner store today.   In 1970 a big (21-inch?) console TV was around 500$.  Today a 55 inch is around $400.

 

What do i win?

 

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Gas averaged 0.36 in 1970.  It's 1.69 at the corner store today.   In 1970 a big (21-inch?) console TV was around 500$.  Today a 55 inch is around $400.

 

What do i win?

 

image.png.adad5c15bfd7ae7b2c069a9eba14b9bb.png

I already covered TV's and gas is just a blip right now. When it's been at these prices for a year I'll concede the point.

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2 hours ago, Oceanconcepts said:

One thing I can definitely say has not gone up 6X is average wages.

I agree that government inflation figures are understated in terms of what we actually experience. There is some motivation for that, since many government benefits and payments are indexed to inflation or the CPI. Then again, the Fed’s targets are expressed in constant terms, so… apples and apples.

Looking at some sites that track historical prices for items (interesting) I’m seeing about a 10X increase in many items since 1970. That’s including a period of very high inflation in the late 70’s and early-mid 80’s, though. We have not seen anything like that since.

You can look at a variety of sources for current inflation figures, some government, some academic, some private, and they are all in general agreement. Some variation depends on how you weight what types of commodities- how often you assume the average family buys a washing machine or a car. Changing consumer behavior also enters in- grass fed organic beef or cheap hamburger? But we have been looking at low inflation rates consistent with a healthy economy for the last couple of decades. 1975-85 not so much.  What happens next is a big question. 

Some figures from an ad tracker site- it's the internet so... 

Gas- local taxes make a big difference (it’s a lot more $ where I am now), but these are AAA’s national averages:

1970 36 cents , 1980 $1.19 , 1990 $1.34 , 2009 $2.051 , 2020 $2.13

Ground beef:

1970 70 cents , 1980 99 cents , 1990 89 cents , 2009 $3.99 , 2020 $4.17

New home:

1970 $23,450.00 , 1980 $68,700.00 , 1990 $123,000.00 , 2008 $238,880 , 2019 $385,000

 

It hasn’t for every group except the top 10%, and even among the top 10%, the bottom and the top are very different. 
 

Everyone thinks of the 70’s as bad, but real income growth was higher for most groups than the 80’s. The drop in growth happened around the Regan tax reform. 

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6 minutes ago, Elegua said:

It hasn’t for every group except the top 10%, and even among the top 10%, the bottom and the top are very different. 
 

Everyone thinks of the 70’s as bad, but real income growth was higher for most groups than the 80’s. The drop in growth happened around the Regan tax reform. 

Wa wa wa Whaaaaaat?  You mean trickle down economics doesnt really work???

 

Image result for trickle down economics meme

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8 minutes ago, Elegua said:

It hasn’t for every group except the top 10%, and even among the top 10%, the bottom and the top are very different. 
 

Everyone thinks of the 70’s as bad, but real income growth was higher for most groups than the 80’s. The drop in growth happened around the Regan tax reform. 

but muh trickle down

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Hey, Soreass is living proof that trickle down works - he got a commission to design a new mansion for some 1%er.

If you run into one of these right wing dimwits in real life is it considered rude to ask when they suffered their brain injury?

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2 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Isn't that what Rush got?

I'd start expecting a run at the returns counter.

I expect the ones handed out by the Current Occupant will forever come with an asterisk. 

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8 hours ago, Oceanconcepts said:

I expect the ones handed out by the Current Occupant will forever come with an asterisk. 

Who also has an asterisk.

* Impeached

What happened to Lusting onYachtWorld??

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https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1965/pearson-vanguard-2732694/

 

I have always lusted after the Pearson Vanguard; just a beautiful, natural looking design.  It's what a sailboat should look like.  I'm not wild about how they sail and how tender they are, but oh that row-away factor....

This is one of the very best-cared for Vanguards I have come across.  Without a major rebuild, there's not much to be done about the cheap looking bulkhead paneling, but this owner has done just about as much as he could with everything else.  I'd rather have a tiller, but other than that, I'd jump all over this if I were in the market.

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Rhodes was an artiste. Even Olin never drew a sweeter sheer than Rhodes.

Re: those teak arborite bulkheads, I've sometimes wondered if a coat of varnish would add enough "imperfection" to make a more convincing wood effect.

The colour and graining is very realistic, only the absolutely flat perfection of the finish really gives away what it is.

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43 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Aside from the tiled head, what are the weird decisions?

Yeah I was thinking the tiled head, the self-steering gear, and the windlass with 300' of chain and only a 35lb anchor.  Also the relatively small tankage (80g water, 28g diesel, 10g (!) holding).

It's sort of betwixt and between a stripped out ULDB racer and a cruiser.  At 14,000lbs displacement I'd want to keep her as light as possible, *or* add a bunch of tankage & comfort stuff for long-range cruising.  

Not really a criticism, and there might be some solid logic behind the decisions but probably not the ones I would take.  Easily remedied regardless.  

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6 minutes ago, socalrider said:

Yeah I was thinking the tiled head, the self-steering gear, and the windlass with 300' of chain and only a 35lb anchor.  Also the relatively small tankage (80g water, 28g diesel, 10g (!) holding).

It's sort of betwixt and between a stripped out ULDB racer and a cruiser.  At 14,000lbs displacement I'd want to keep her as light as possible, *or* add a bunch of tankage & comfort stuff for long-range cruising.  

Not really a criticism, and there might be some solid logic behind the decisions but probably not the ones I would take.  Easily remedied regardless.  

Looks like a stretched Express 37. And well executed as well.

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1 hour ago, Hukilau said:

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1965/pearson-vanguard-2732694/

 

I have always lusted after the Pearson Vanguard; just a beautiful, natural looking design.  It's what a sailboat should look like.  I'm not wild about how they sail and how tender they are, but oh that row-away factor....

This is one of the very best-cared for Vanguards I have come across.  Without a major rebuild, there's not much to be done about the cheap looking bulkhead paneling, but this owner has done just about as much as he could with everything else.  I'd rather have a tiller, but other than that, I'd jump all over this if I were in the market.

Nice hull but that cabin trunk reminds me of a Westerly Centaur.

4738992_20140616130706368_3_XLARGE.jpg.7152a9f5d6fbdc04cefacfc7a49a736f.jpg

6289821_20190322061739557_1_XLARGE.jpg.79ce66730c9927bf5fb291e90cc790a4.jpg

 

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