Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I'm a little puzzled by Burton's track since crossing the equator.  He is leading and obviously fast, but he has basically taken a flyer.  Whatever happened to covering?  Why take the risk?  He has to sweating bullets right now that he made the right call, but it didn't have to be that way.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 13.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

":A 2h18 heure française, le team PRB a été informé du sauvetage de Kevin Escoffier par Jean Le Cam. " Kevin has been rescued.  

Give it a rest chaps. HB was another attempt at evolution, and they should be applauded for spending a fuck ton of money to do so. If you want to try and be innovative you run the risk of breakages al

VG sailors at sea in the rough A translation: JLC: Damien can you receive me ? DS: Yes Jean I can (garbled)... I don't think you're receiving me that well but I receive you very well. JL

Posted Images

Just now, Roleur said:

I'm a little puzzled by Burton's track since crossing the equator.  He is leading and obviously fast, but he has basically taken a flyer.  Whatever happened to covering?  Why take the risk?  He has to sweating bullets right now that he made the right call, but it didn't have to be that way.  

He has done this throughout the race (remember when he went hard South along the ice gate through the worst weather) - he sails aggressively / confidently and it has paid off in the past. Race is all the better for it.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Snowden said:

He has done this throughout the race (remember when he went hard South along the ice gate through the worst weather) - he sails aggressively / confidently and it has paid off in the past. Race is all the better for it.

Makes for it exciting and interesting for us as spectators. However with Burton having the better port foil vs Dalin, the prudent move may have been to grind him down then cover to the finish. I suspect that Dalin may have some element of intimidation on his side, having repeatedly come out ahead in the majority of hand to hand tussles so far.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, bucc5062 said:

 

Long post sorry, just to say I see your view, but these guys and gals, I think they are, without being directed, letting us see who they really are in the middle of an ocean, alone, far from home.  I'm good with that.

It is also ironic because the same folks who have an issue apparently with skippers who choose to produce content for their sponsors also are the same folks who say they'd love it if programs or VG required 24/7 data being offloaded by the boats. And the only two skippers who committed to that aren't the French ones who do the "thank you for sponsor see you in a few months" - so which is it? Want more access or transparency to feed the holiday blues? Or more secrecy focused on winning above all else?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Refreshed the sched tracker and I see Pip heading in an odd direction, but it also looks like light winds around.  She has struggled in this last section of the race and that sucks, because she was really holding her own (before the Horn) with even the foilers.  A nice recent video from her.  I am pulling for her to hold her position in the fleet, but she needs to get out of that field of holes.  The ocean may be an amazing place, but the wind is a fickle mistress ready to give pleasure or pain at her whim.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

Refreshed the sched tracker and I see Pip heading in an odd direction, but it also looks like light winds around.  She has struggled in this last section of the race and that sucks, because she was really holding her own (before the Horn) with even the foilers.  A nice recent video from her.  I am pulling for her to hold her position in the fleet, but she needs to get out of that field of holes.  The ocean may be an amazing place, but the wind is a fickle mistress ready to give pleasure or pain at her whim.

 

 

Speaking of fickle pleasure or pain, it appears she went to take a nap on a stack of sails and it turned out there was a dead man-o-war lurking in there.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather update

 

After 2 weeks of other stuff on my head I have time to have detailed look at the weather and projections.

It's a about a week sailing to the finish. Burton is the most western skipper of the top-10 boats. This is because the Azores HP zone is in it's full glory. And light patches are there up to the Florida coast. As usual, ECMWF and GFS do no agree much after 3 days. This makes the projections less certain, but unless someone buys me a subscription, that's the best best I can do. 

The big picture is in pic #1 with ECMWF wind and pressure. Weather routing table in pic #2. Burton projected 1st, Dalin 2nd and 6 hrs later. Burton has invested in the west, had to make double more miles in that investment, but more wind is in the west. As the various LP zones will rotate in from the USA eastcoast in the comings days, he will have the new wind first. And the strongest. Routings for Burton and Dalin in pic #3 and 4. The Azores HP zone will move after a couple of days to the NE, a new LP zone will provide the other halve of the hammer and anvil which the fleet will have to navigate through. See pic#5, the yellow arrow indicates the projection for position for Burton at the 27th.

It is going to be an interesting last week, the fat lady is getting a bit restless.

 

 

 

ECMWG 20-01-21.jpg

table 20-01-21.png

Dalin 20-01-21.png

Burton 20-01-21.png

projections_27-01-21.png

  • Like 11
Link to post
Share on other sites

960x0.jpg.9d550adefcda1df5f48890a527bc2e93.jpg

https://www.piphare.com/blog/anunplannedvisitor

Pip Hare: An unplanned visitor

"... After the events of yesterday I know I am special. I have had what I believe to be a unique Vendée Globe experience. I have been stung on the back by a Portuguese man o’ war jelly fish. ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_man_o'_war

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good to have you back Herman. 

Never tried this before, but Simon Fisher in a couple of different interviews mentioned the" 500mb stuff" and the jet stream. IIRC, he said the jet stream will compress the Azores 'wall', leading to a break. Pic 1 is the 500mb view;

#2 is the 300mb "jet stream".  Does seem to be a 'break' that aligns with Louis' position. 

723809854_ScreenShot2021-01-20at2_33_06PM.png.34b850d1eb2c23ce8a84e2774bd7dc6f.png

803645117_ScreenShot2021-01-20at2_33_29PM.thumb.png.cab02e144cd011ad15ad1984da902201.png

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Virgulino Ferreira said:

960x0.jpg.9d550adefcda1df5f48890a527bc2e93.jpg

https://www.piphare.com/blog/anunplannedvisitor

Pip Hare: An unplanned visitor

"... After the events of yesterday I know I am special. I have had what I believe to be a unique Vendée Globe experience. I have been stung on the back by a Portuguese man o’ war jelly fish. ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_man_o'_war

 

That which we survive makes us tougher and I'm starting to see this is one tough sailor.  That she can laugh, bot I get that too, but i had to laugh at her last sentence, "blows me back to LSD."  Um Pip, that's a whole different trip from what I here :o:lol:

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Haji said:

Makes for it exciting and interesting for us as spectators. However with Burton having the better port foil vs Dalin, the prudent move may have been to grind him down then cover to the finish. I suspect that Dalin may have some element of intimidation on his side, having repeatedly come out ahead in the majority of hand to hand tussles so far.

Agree, particularly with the last sentence. It just seems like temperamentally Burton would prefer to maximise his chance of the win even if that means giving up a 'safe' second or third.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Snowden said:

Agree, particularly with the last sentence. It just seems like temperamentally Burton would prefer to maximise his chance of the win even if that means giving up a 'safe' second or third.

Keep in mind also that he needs to beat Hermann by 6 hours, Bestaven by 10:15, and Le Cam by 16:15.  So, particularly with Hermann, it isn't simply a matter of covering.  He needs some margin if he wants to officially beat them.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bucc5062 said:

That which we survive makes us tougher and I'm starting to see this is one tough sailor.  That she can laugh, bot I get that too, but i had to laugh at her last sentence, "blows me back to LSD."  Um Pip, that's a whole different trip from what I here :o:lol:

Yeah, I also had to read this last part twice. :lol:

We occasionally have Caravelas sailing by here, in Florianópolis. I learned very early that it is the most dangerous creature in our patch of the ocean, much more dangerous than stupid sharks. If you see one, get out of the water immediately, because they can have  tentacles of 100+ft/30+m.

At the same time, they are one of the most beautiful things I have ever seen in our ocean. No photo can show how wonderful their colors are, the richness of purple and pink tones, nor the hypnotizing iridescence.

It's an absurd race, for unlikely characters in ridiculous boats, but getting stung in the back by a Man-of-War, in the cockpit, that's "next level" indeed!

Hope she gets better soon.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Virgulino Ferreira said:

Yeah, I also had to read this last part twice. :lol:

We occasionally have Caravelas sailing by here, in Florianópolis. I learned very early that it is the most dangerous creature in our patch of the ocean, much more dangerous than stupid sharks. If you see one, get out of the water immediately, because they can have  tentacles of 100+ft/30+m.

At the same time, they are one of the most beautiful things I have ever seen in our ocean. No photo can show how wonderful their colors are, the richness of purple and pink tones, nor the hypnotizing iridescence.

It's an absurd race, for unlikely characters in ridiculous boats, but getting stung in the back by a Man-of-War, in the cockpit, that's "next level" indeed!

Hope she gets better soon.

I checked out the links, cool pace where you live, and man I hope they got the right stuff on board for those stings can be nasty.  The closest I came to such a moment was sailing in Chesapeake Bay south of Annapolis.  In the summer the stinging jellyfish can be very numerous.  One time I was in the water to clean the bottom and just missed a collection them coming back to the surface.

 

The water can yield much in nasty creatures to be avoided.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, bucc5062 said:

I checked out the links, cool pace where you live, and man I hope they got the right stuff on board for those stings can be nasty.  The closest I came to such a moment was sailing in Chesapeake Bay south of Annapolis.  In the summer the stinging jellyfish can be very numerous.  One time I was in the water to clean the bottom and just missed a collection them coming back to the surface.

The water can yield much in nasty creatures to be avoided.

Well, to be honest with you, in the summer we have one other creature here that is much, much deadlier than anything else on the water, and truly nasty:

Powerboaters.

:(

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Armel has had good luck in his transition of the doldrums and now heading to the back of this extraordinary lead group,..... but he is not the only black boat on the map....just shows again.   Dont give up.!!   This lead group is jockeying into their positions    almost like a gate start and someone coming in on port..... and with some routing predictions and time in lieu and the mix of c/b and foil and three LPs,.... this run to the finish is going to be one hell of a watch.   

     the sport of sailing has changed....no longer paint drying , to gaining an audience of people who have been shown their world out side the lock down four walls... a small planet with an atmosphere covered by water and one of the last frontiers......and a weather system that is changing

Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 10.39.14 am.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, huey 2 said:

a small planet with an atmosphere covered by water and one of the last frontiers.

Just found this: seems to fit with your post

(some hints of teams briefing migration maps as part of their race strategy, OSCAR, pingers, and reporting)

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, huey 2 said:

Armel has had good luck in his transition of the doldrums and now heading to the back of this extraordinary lead group,.....

I thought he's just entered them? Yesterday's update he said he'd be entering in less than 24 hours. And he's still at 12 kts on the last update (down from the 21 kts at which he crossed the Equator yesterday). The satellite image (if it attaches right) shows he has some way to go.

Do hope your words are prophetic though!

 

Capture.PNG

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, stief said:

Pip's job list

 

Love the blue crocs, and her comfortable movement around the boat sans harness, facilitated by benign conditions. She is wonderfully upbeat, I hope she gets home without difficulties.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
 
A beautiful symbol and a good thing done: Armel crossed the equator last night, Tuesday, January 19, after a little over 72 days alone at sea. The skipper of L'Occitane in Provence is on the attack, with the great morale that characterizes him for the last part of this extraordinary race. "I've still got 9 to 10 days at sea, which would make us a place at The Sables-d'Olonne on January 29th or 30th," Armel said this morning, in the confident skipper's good voice... and aware of having made a nice move, the last five days.
 
5e2b0ae9-9f6d-46da-9a13-cfcae69e265c.jpg
 
"I got very close"
"I got very close to Maxime Sorel (V and B-Mayenne, 10And), you'd have to do the math, but I've taken a lot of miles back, I think." We've done the math. And, indeed, this Wednesday morning Armel is less than 200 miles from the famous Top 10 dreamed before the start the 33 skippers of this ninth edition of the Vendée Globe. L'Occitane in Provence points to 185 miles from Maxime Sorel, up from 560 miles five days ago on January 15th! "I'm not going to sell the bear's skin, it's not a foregone conclusion, but if there's an opportunity to come back I'll obviously try it, there's still 3200 miles to go. We'll see, the priority is now to complete this round the world. »
 
2492ac18-7f66-44df-89e7-d1eb047ea02b.jpg
e599860c-ff9f-4a9b-bc8b-fe73597363f4.jpg
 
A favorable black pot: "I don't have to complain..."
 
The other good news of the day, in addition to the passage of the equator and the rapprochement to the tenth place, is that the pot to the black (the zone of intertropical convergence that often alternates between great calms very penalizing and violent grains) is rather favorable for L'Occitane in Provence. "I have windier conditions than the weather predicted, so I don't have to complain!  There I have 18 knots of wind. I thought it was going to be a painful passage, but it was actually pretty quick. I took something like 300 miles from Maxime Sorel (365 miles, even). I never stopped. I've been in the wind all the time, at least 11 knots for a few hours, and I don't think I'm going to stop now. I'll be really out of the black pot on Wednesday night. Besides, I'm starting to get the sea of the northeast wind: it's the next transition that I'm going to look for. Then we'll have three days up close... Behind
Armel's playful voice, you can hear the sea banging violently against the hull of L'Occitane in Provence. "The sea is chaotic, it's beating! He confirms. "It's hot at the equator, but it's wet and I can't put my nose in the window because it gets a lot wet. I have three days left to navigate close by, before finding the wind carrying. Then, the situation seems quite nice: we should have a large edge straight before recovering the southern edge of the depressions to go up to Spain. But we're not there yet."
 
e926d64c-4461-44be-bed4-e124d4670c00.png

Videos of the edge

 
"Don't worry about me"
 
For the time being it is necessary to hold, to measure the effort well until the finish so as not to break. On the food side, Armel is reassuring: he controls his rationing. "You don't have to worry about me. I have enough to make me another breakfast and a hot meal in the evening. It is only for lunch that I ration myself by contenting myself with cereal bars. So no worries, it will go like that until the finish. Morale is excellent, everything is fine on board!"

The boat? "No problem on the structure side is nickel: we live well together the boat and me.  Like everyone else I do little things every day like replacing a butt (stringing) or putting a patch back on a sail, but it's normal wear after 73 days at sea around the world. Seventy-three days, I don't even realize what it means, I've never spent more than 25 at sea! We're going to complete this round-the-world trip in 83 days, something like that. It's quite an adventure all the same... »
 
69a6c0ca-4ecc-4cb3-8ba3-ebb8ca512cf5.jpg
 
We have received the organization's latest health protocol for arrivals to the Sables d'Olonne. The village will be closed to the public. Each Team will have a limited number of accreditations to access and a PCR test of less than 72 hours will be required to enter.
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Varan said:

Speaking of Le Cam, how about another video? Missing your wit and humor, clack, clack, clack.

No videos lately... he must be very busy or taking as must rest as he can before the final push.

Yes We Cam!

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, TheDragon said:

In one of his posts Boris indicated he did 6-8 sail changes yesterday (J2/J3). Today it looks like only two. But I still don't understand some of the data coming off his boat. Why does he have to level the boat while changing from J2 to J3 and back? Are they not both on furlers so he brings in one and lets out the other? Why would that be enough to temporarily bring his boat up to an even keel and even tension on the outriggers? His speed drops all the way down from 20 knots to as little as 5 knots. And the apparent wind goes way back.

Because he bears off to a run and de-powers to do it. Standard practice with furling headsails (or should be)

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, stief said:

Good to have you back Herman. 

Never tried this before, but Simon Fisher in a couple of different interviews mentioned the" 500mb stuff" and the jet stream. IIRC, he said the jet stream will compress the Azores 'wall', leading to a break. Pic 1 is the 500mb view;

#2 is the 300mb "jet stream".  Does seem to be a 'break' that aligns with Louis' position.

 

Hi Stief,

How did you get those layers to show up in Windy? Cannot see them anywhere in the console...

Is it Windy you are using?

Link to post
Share on other sites

549330427_210120-isabelle-joschke-imoca-macsf-2-Copy.thumb.jpg.952343c800184c73ef183aafbd791756.jpg

https://isabellejoschke.com/cap-salvador-de-bahia-bresil-vendee-globe/

Isabelle is on her way to Salvador de Bahia

Forced to retire on 9th January while she was in 11th place in the Vendée Globe rankings, Isabelle set off for Brazil and the port of the capital of the State of Bahia, which she should reach from Monday. Our navigator has regained her morale these last few days, along with more manageable sea conditions and a milder climate. Her technical team is expected on site at the end of the week to assess the damage to her foiler and determine how she will be repatriated to France.

This Wednesday morning, Isabelle Joschke was 700 miles from Salvador de Bahia and its famous Bay of All Saints. The MACSF skipper is progressing in the east trade winds downwind.

Even if her morale naturally dropped very low in the hours following her retirement, Isabelle never gave up. She reacted very quickly to manage the perilous crossing of two fronts with a recognised sense of seamanship. Today, the sailor is already looking ahead to the next stage, in particular the Transat Jacques Vabre, which will start on 24th October.

In the meantime, during her stopover in Brazil, she will meet up with her technical team, whose arrival is scheduled for Saturday. The MACSF team will welcome her as she deserves and then carry out a visual assessment to evaluate the damage and judge whether the boat is fit to return to sea after repair work.

Joined at noon today, Isabelle explains why her navigation towards land is delicate and takes time:

"I absolutely have to make sure that the boat stays as flat as possible so that the keel doesn't make her heel further. If it heels over, the keel will hang downwind and make it tilt even more. We will then enter a vicious circle which can go as far as to lay the boat down as happened to me a week ago. This can be very dangerous. I keep MACSF flat thanks to the ballast tanks, the foils and the shape of the boat which is quite wide. I sail slowly enough so that the foil and ballast are sufficient to keep the boat flat to avoid vibrations and shocks, because a shock will be felt all the more if the keel moves and that will put a lot of stress on the boat and its structure. To preserve the structure of the boat, the keel must at all costs be prevented from moving too much and therefore avoid shocks, rolling or rocking. I'm always on my guard: I set myself a cruising speed of between 6 and 8 knots and if the boat heels over, I immediately reduce the sail".

Isabelle Joschke

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like Louis option will indeed pay, after what he went through him winning would be great !

(from tip & shat lst podcast, after he repaired along Macquarie, it broke again, main sail hook, and he went very close to giving up)

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, stief said:

Good to have you back Herman. 

Never tried this before, but Simon Fisher in a couple of different interviews mentioned the" 500mb stuff" and the jet stream. IIRC, he said the jet stream will compress the Azores 'wall', leading to a break. Pic 1 is the 500mb view;

#2 is the 300mb "jet stream".  Does seem to be a 'break' that aligns with Louis' position. 

Thank you. I will do a weather analysis later today.

First something on the "500mb stuff" SF refers to. These are 500 hPA geopotential maps, projecting with height contours the 500 hPA surface. The geostrophic winds can be derived from the height drop in these maps. This is the amount of air moving with a constant speed parallel to the isobars, without earth friction. That friction slows the air flow, lessening the effect of the Coriolis force. The 500 hPA height contours are lower in cold air masses, and higher in warm air masses.

It's a tool that was frequently used before supercomputers could calculate complex weather models at different levels of the atmosphere. It is basically half way up in the atmosphere, between the ground and the troposphere, the top of the atmosphere. Also called the level of non-divergence; beneath that 500 hPA-level there is a level of convergence and above that level there is a level of divergence. So the 500 hPA surface is the surface to look for vertical motions in the atmosphere. Also, it is used because the weather systems as the Earth's surface move with the winds at this height, approximately 5 to 6 km above the surface. So the 500 hPA is the most applicable height for forecasting weather system movement horizontally too. The map is provided for ECMWF but also GFS, like 5 other geopotential maps with other pressure levels. The calculated complex multi-level weather models have removed the necessity of the 500 hPA map for forecasting for daily use.

Sources here there and the Dutch book "Meteorologie en oceanografie voor de zeevaart".

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, yl75 said:

Looks like Louis option will indeed pay, after what he went through him winning would be great !

(from tip & shat lst podcast, after he repaired along Macquarie, it broke again, main sail hook, and he went very close to giving up)

Beat me to it!

Nearly all (or maybe all) of Louis' "flyers" seem to pay...

Really most impressive.

And Pip's vid makes me want to go do something, though I should have been asleep more than a while ago.

Phenominal race and coverage.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, PHIRKIN said:

Beat me to it!

Nearly all (or maybe all) of Louis' "flyers" seem to pay...

Really most impressive.

And Pip's vid makes me want to go do something, though I should have been asleep more than a while ago.

Phenominal race and coverage.

The tip & shaft podcast is quite interesting, with Serviane Escoffier (Kevin's sister, also Louis girlfriend and team manager), basically they are saying when it broke again after his Macquarie repairs (his main fell on the deck again), and somehow Serviane was key in him repairing again and keeping on going.

https://www.tipandshaft.com/podcasts/posreport/episode12-paul-meilhat-servane-escoffier/

(but in French with no automatic translation to my knowledge)

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Virgulino Ferreira said:

960x0.jpg.9d550adefcda1df5f48890a527bc2e93.jpg

https://www.piphare.com/blog/anunplannedvisitor

Pip Hare: An unplanned visitor

"... After the events of yesterday I know I am special. I have had what I believe to be a unique Vendée Globe experience. I have been stung on the back by a Portuguese man o’ war jelly fish. ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_man_o'_war

 

Wow...the photo in the Pip link shows a little critter compared to usual stated size. (3-12 in)

Size-wise, looks like Velella  or "by the wind sailor" (which can wash up on Pacific beaches in large numbers), but never heard of serious things from those...

I guess they must start out small; but did she sail through a nursery or something? 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather analysis

See pics #1 for the large picture with EUMETSAT with IR color. So to the NW of the fleet a LP with hurricane force winds with the red-green stuff, and the Azores HP to the NE as black stuff.

GFS and ECMWF do not agree within 2 days. ECMWF has a private patch of wind projected on Saturday for Burton that GFS is missing, see pic 2 the yellow circle. This would make the GFS projections less valid for him, meaning that if this private patch falls through, his chances of winning the VG are underestimated. The weather routing table is in pic #3. Burton still to win with 5 hours delta, but that could be with a bigger margin due to that private patch of wind. If the model holds up etc etc.

Weather routing for Burton and Dalin wit NOAA OPC surface analysis as overlay in pic #4. Burton closer west to the wind. Interesting to see is that their tracks are first parallel, but after that projected to cross-over two times. See pic #5 for zoom and projections for coming Monday evening, with the yellow arrows indicating Burton and Dalin. At that time Burton should have a lateral difference of 93 nm over Dalin. And increase that distance after that. 

 

 

EUMETSAT 21-01-21.jpg

ECMWF projections Saturday.jpg

routing table 21-01-21.png

Burton and Dalin projections wih NOAA Atlantic surface.png

Projections for Monday.jpg

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Herman said:

Thank you. I will do a weather analysis later today.

First something on the "500mb stuff" SF refers to. These are 500 hPA geopotential maps, projecting with height contours the 500 hPA surface. The geostrophic winds can be derived from the height drop in these maps. This is the amount of air moving with a constant speed parallel to the isobars, without earth friction. That friction slows the air flow, lessening the effect of the Coriolis force. The 500 hPA height contours are lower in cold air masses, and higher in warm air masses.

It's a tool that was frequently used before supercomputers could calculate complex weather models at different levels of the atmosphere. It is basically half way up in the atmosphere, between the ground and the troposphere, the top of the atmosphere. Also called the level of non-divergence; beneath that 500 hPA-level there is a level of convergence and above that level there is a level of divergence. So the 500 hPA surface is the surface to look for vertical motions in the atmosphere. Also, it is used because the weather systems as the Earth's surface move with the winds at this height, approximately 5 to 6 km above the surface. So the 500 hPA is the most applicable height for forecasting weather system movement horizontally too. The map is provided for ECMWF but also GFS, like 5 other geopotential maps with other pressure levels. The calculated complex multi-level weather models have removed the necessity of the 500 hPA map for forecasting for daily use.

Sources here there and the Dutch book "Meteorologie en oceanografie voor de zeevaart".

Thanks for those links and the clear explanation. Brought back lots of memories poring over 500mb charts, and stories of jet stream oddities like the Dreamliner that exceeded the speed of sound last year. Lots of fun rabbit holes in all that useful reading. 

Also led to imagining  Scotsman Andi interviewing the Welshman Louis on the Live (hope you get a laugh):

Quote

Andi: "Some people werre askin bout your rrrouting: Why did you go 5º more West than Charlie? Did you use 1098912555_ScreenShot2021-01-21at6_28_31AM.png.ad8f90a93973deea145a6948f8713f10.png  to calculate the geostrophic effect of the jet stream from the 500hPa  forecasts?"

Louis: "Quoi? (checks computer). Tabarnak! [illegal in Québec] I was about to sleep, so hit the autopilot for +5º.  Must have hit -5º. Quelle dommage!

Ah. Too slow posting. See you have posted the routing, and Louis' route pays off in both models. Cool, even if 'man plans and god laughs.'

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Trying to avoid work so had a quick play around to see what this would look like with the time compensation taken into account. Burton is still first - but less than an hour in front of Besthaven, with Boris only a little bit further behind in 3rd. Gap from 3rd to Dalin in 4th underlines how difficult it is going to be for him to pull out enough of a lead to cross the line first and still finish first on corrected time.

1 hour ago, Herman said:

routing table 21-01-21.png

image.png.0dcbfbcb3409cd0b5ffcf37d43139a11.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Herman said:

routing table 21-01-21.png

Burton and Dalin projections wih NOAA Atlantic surface.png

 

Thanks Herman, fast downwind and reaching finish,  mostly on starboard.  I think Louis Burton is favourite but Boris Hermann and Yannick Bestehaven have an outside chance on the basis that both Apivia and Linkedout others have port foil damage. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Some timelinks for the EN Live #75  (Marcus Hutchinson, team manager LinkedOut.)

Arrival protocol received  (COVID, curfew, # of people, private time via zoom with those who would otherwise be on the dock)  

Leader comments:   Boris, Louis' tactics impressive. Apivia may push harder on the foil bearing. May be scared by Yannick's fast boat now that he is back in control of sail wardrobe.

Re 'Benji' Dutreux:  example of small budget; nice guy that everyone wants to help.

Current IMOCA sales "Market is open", people looking for boats. Has been involved in selling seven IMOCAS

Sponsors: (Bureau Vallée) importance of more value for more cycles.

Weather: private corridor  as noted by Herman above.

Good future for the IMOCA class:  Ocean Race Europe, Fastnet non UK stop arrangements, 

Koji: "Race is absolutely massive now in Japan" furthest from Japan at this moment [Right.  enter -32.744333, -35.535167 into https://www.antipodesmap.com/#coordinates-converter ]

Ari still enjoying his time in wet and snowy squalls; glad he still has many days ahead!

Good Live.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Bebmoumoute said:

Very good interview with Antoine Mermod, president of the IMOCA class

https://www.letelegramme.fr/voile/on-va-limiter-la-taille-des-foils-21-01-2021-12691982.php

Yes, thanks. Size limits, but not standard shapes.

Quote

Should we limit the size of foils, or even standardize them as is already the case for masts?

Yes, we limit the size of the foils. There is a certain convergence towards a foil size that gives the right balance between the power that this can give to the boat and the lifting effects to get the hull out of the water. We are not going to standardize them because we are not yet converging towards a concept that would be the ideal concept. Between the foils of L'Occitane in Provence and those of Hugo Boss and their use, these are very different ways of seeing things and we have not found the ideal solution. So we are still in a research phase that makes it a little early to standardize foils.

(forgot to note:  ECMWF as free as GFS by 2022 or 2023)

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, GER 100 said:

Latest weather update from Will Harris

Nice explanation of how the two LPs will interact and affect the sea state for Boris this weekend. Sounds exhausting.

Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, bclovisp said:

Let's hope that Burton's initial penalty for crossing the line too early won't come bite him!!!

It won't he's already done it, time penalties have to be taken by a certain point as described in the NoR/SI and Burton's has long since been done.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, JonRowe said:

It won't he's already done it, time penalties have to be taken by a certain point as described in the NoR/SI and Burton's has long since been done.

I think the point is what if he loses by less than 5 hours. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Roleur said:

I think the point is what if he loses by less than 5 hours. 

Ah, from that perspective it is a bit c'est la vie, the penalty taken hasn't really affected his positioning, his positioning now is a result of pushing the boat hard after his repairs I don't think it could directly translate to being 5 hours ahead of his current positioning

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Pip finds joy in hand steering

Quote

For the first time in many many weeks yesterday I hand steered Medallia and it was magnificent. I took a cup of tea, some great sounds (Daft Punk and Muse) and sat on deck steering my way through the shifts and the waves for five hours, until night had fallen and my neck and back were tired and a big ugly cloud rolled over the top of us and stole all of the wind. Since then the night has been a mixture of rain, wind from every direction, no wind and general resolve-breaking conditions.  At least we are sailing again now.

My autopilot is such an incredible machine, when fully functioning with wind data it steers the boat so consistently well I have not needed to even think about picking up the tiller. The truth is that most of the time, the machine can steer better than me, it doesn't get wet, tired, cold or distracted and though it can't see the waves the multiple sensors are able to feel the acceleration and heel of the boat and judge exactly how to ride a wave. Thus far in the race the pilot has made me redundant as a helm, freeing up my time to manage the rest of the multiple jobs on the boat.

Despite being very tired and frustrated I did relish the opportunity to helm last night. I have always been a very active helm when solo racing. In all of my previous boats I have spent hours and days at the helm, locked into position, feeling every part of the boat. It gives me a truly deep connection with weather and conditions. You feel every change directly, become part of the interface that converts the raw potential of the wind to the refined directional power that is driving me to the finish. Taking the tiller in my hands yesterday alleviated the ache in my head; I was taking control, using my own brain to react to the many changes on the water, steering a way through the disturbed conditions and that made a difference. I have not yet been totally superseded by a machine.

I can't hand steer for the rest of the race but as conditions become more stable the pilot will once again be king. Meanwhile I need to strike the balance between time on the helm, sleeping and all of the other tasks that need to be done. Right now the pilot is driving, it's been doing a great job so far but we just hit a wave at the wrong angle and my head is back in a knot. I can't ignore it, my concentration on anything else has now gone.

full article (more details, pics and vids) at https://www.piphare.com/blog/taking-the-tiller

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bebmoumoute said:

Very good interview with Antoine Mermod, president of the IMOCA class

https://www.letelegramme.fr/voile/on-va-limiter-la-taille-des-foils-21-01-2021-12691982.php

Indeed, especially regarding the target foils rules, that will limit the foils static moment to 8 m^3, so not imposing anything regarding the design approach. (long and thin or more cord and shorter, C foils HB style or not, Occitane style or not etc).

But I find some sentences a bit incoherent, like : "Et la marche suivante n’interviendra pas avant le Vendée Globe 2024, même peut-être après." (redundant / incoherent) : basically no T rudders in 2024, but most probably afterwards.

(would not be surprised it is due to the journalist)

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much content coming from the leaders boats lately... So the media has to be more creative ...

yacht.de started a poll on how hard should Boris Herrmann sail the last week of racing:

  • Full throttle, all or nothing, the chance to win never comes again - 23%
  • As before, sail smart, with calculable risk and then see what comes out.  - 76%
  • Don't take any more risks, sail cautiously, the goal is to arrive. - 1%

I guess for Louis Burton this would be a complete waste of time, as he has clearly opted for the first variant :-)

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, GER 100 said:

yacht.de started a poll on how hard should Boris Herrmann sail the last week of racing:

  • As before, sail smart, with calculable risk and then see what comes out.  - 76%

"rather the sparrow in hand than the pigeon on the roof"

Thanks gtrans

Link to post
Share on other sites

Alan Roura commended by J. Beyou. Rightly so.

Quote

Since his first keel problems on November 28, which forced him to let a decisive wind shift pass for his entry into the South Seas and, at the same time, to let his fellow travelers of the time (Clarisse Crémer and Romain Attanasio) slip, Alan Roura has continued his way, a little in his corner. Since caught up with, then doubled, by Jérémie Beyou at the helm of a latest generation Charal, as well as by Arnaud Boissières on La Mie Câline - Artisans Artipôle of the same potential as La Fabrique at 100% of its capacities, the taste for regatta is back at the Swiss skipper. Already forcing admiration by his self-sacrifice to complete his round the world race alone, without stopover or assistance, despite the reduced potential of his boat, the youngest of this ninth edition of the Vendée Globe impresses, thus standing up to his new competitors. This Thursday, he even returned less than a mile from Arnaud Boissières, who had widened the gap by more than 80 miles. Last week, it was Jérémie Beyou who, during a session, welcomed this performance and this pugnacity to all tests: "Alan is doing a not simple race. He did the whole South with the keel in the axis, it's a balancing act. Putting the keel in the wind is a guarantee of stability for boats. He has been on a soap for weeks and he is doing more than well. I think a bunch of people would have thrown in the towel, and totally legitimately, and went to the end of things and his Vendée Globe.' This is really to be welcomed. When it's one of the big favorites at the start who says it...

Safari trans [incl. slip of the soap] of text snip from https://www.lafabriquesailingteam.ch/fr/blog/alan-s-en-sort-plus-que-bien

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, PHIRKIN said:

Wow...the photo in the Pip link shows a little critter compared to usual stated size. (3-12 in)

Size-wise, looks like Velella  or "by the wind sailor" (which can wash up on Pacific beaches in large numbers), but never heard of serious things from those...

I guess they must start out small; but did she sail through a nursery or something?

I didn't know this Velella, beautiful thing, thanks!

I'm usually more afraid of the little tiny creatures, which you only see when it's too late... :lol:

Link to post
Share on other sites

@Haji Still following up Sam and Miranda's chat with Emma Richards reported three days ago in the Live (about her 1998 JVT mast break).  Her Around Alone race in 2002-03  also sounds like a heartbreaker for many, with many remarkable stories.

Is this a decent enough account, or can you kindly recommend a better one? http://asianyachting.com/news/AroundAlone.htm 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

In the last sched, we passed the reference time from the last edition, 74 d 03 h 36 min,  with over 2,000 miles left for the leaders.  Interesting that Burton is sailing the boat that set that time.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Really disappointed with the Antoine Mermod interview in Le Telegramme. Why on earth can't people resist the temptation to impose rules and restrictions? He should be concentrating on deleting the rules which are not helping anyone any longer and are bad for future events. Imposing new rules is the last thing this event in particular needs.

The real attraction of the Imoca class and the VG for me and many others has always been that it encouraged development of seaworthy long distance race boats and was the antithesis of a one-design.

Don't let the organisers and the class association take over from where innovative designers should be in charge! It is already completely obvious that the one-design mast makes no sense any longer now foils are being used and really, what logic now to the one-design keel as far as anything other than materials issues are concerned? None whatsoever! It is now the boats which break due to keel and rig loadings! Do we really want Imoca's to morph into VOR 65 one-designs? Slippery slope.

The solution to the question about limiting foil size/power is obvious. Revert to an "open" style box rule for them.. Having a natural limit on the RM from foils is easy. All they need to do is set a beam limit beyond which no appendage may project. Then leave it up to the skipper and his design house to decide what size and shape and movements to adopt. Imposing a rule based on a hypothetical static moment on an adjustable dynamic lifting surface is just about as daft as it sounds!

Similarly with regard to lifting rudders there are so many problems to solve in that area when you consider the boat must be operable single handed, and get round the world! what is the point in having any other rule apart from the box?

The ice limit question was also addressed with some sensible observations but not the sensible conclusion. The ice line has severely limited skipper tactical freedom, (against safety, Beyou) has forced them into terrible seastates and made the Southern Ocean sailing boring and predictable. People I have talked with about this feel the ice gate system was far better.  Mermod says, "There is no quick fix, but everyone agrees that we should not go play with ice cream. We therefore need safeguards"!. No! If "everyone agrees we should not go play with ice cream" and he includes skippers with "everyone", then no rule is necessary. Information about the whereabouts of ice is now better and more available than ever before. Does a VG skipper really need protecting from him/herself? Skippers I know are for sure already frightened enough by the risks of accidental collisions, UFOs, big soft objects etc. that they are not going to be looking for a self-inflicted wound in iceberg territory at 30 kts!

Similar head-in-sand approach to electric power. Personally I like it in principle and I think technically potential exists for an electrically propelled boat to be faster and more efficient than one with a gasoil engine but that is not yet. Electric boat propulsion systems on the market are pathetic, still in back in the dark ages. Just let electric propulsion take over if and when it becomes technically competitive.

Any pretense that an Imoca project is climate friendly (if you worry at all about such things), is a joke anyway,  total greenwashing nonsense. Let's just concentrate on what is best for a seaworthy long distance single handed raceboat and keep designers and skippers free to create them.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, oioi said:

Thanks Herman, fast downwind and reaching finish,  mostly on starboard.  I think Louis Burton is favourite but Boris Hermann and Yannick Bestehaven have an outside chance on the basis that both Apivia and Linkedout others have port foil damage. 

As @b3nharris showed in the table with time adjustments above, Burton, Herrmann and Bestaven projected to finish within 1 hour after adjustments. That too close to call a winner, but my money would be on Burton. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you all of those who have shared their expertise!

Burton is killing it on VMG  20 vs 11 for Dalin.  If you play follow the leader you will never be the leader!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Giancarlo's log. Didn't talk about his engine troubles until now.

Quote

There is one thing I haven't talked about, which happened after Cape Horn. Throughout the Great South , I had a hard time starting the engine. Probably due to low temperatures, the lack of additional additives in the diesel fuel that could help simplify the first combustion, or perhaps some operating problem of the glow plugs . The fact is that, in order not to take any risks, I started the engine every 6 hours throughout the Great South , never letting it cool . The engine is a fundamental element of a sailboat. It is forbidden to use it to navigate, but it is essential to recharge the batteries . And provide electricity.

Energy is essential

Without electricity, our boat becomes unmanageable, it becomes a completely adrift vehicle . Without energy there is no more autopilot, there is no more communication, there is no computer, we no longer have the position of our boat or that of others, we no longer have drinking water. Without energy, only danger remains. Danger of sailing blind. Battery charging systems are essential, and if so is Prysmian Groupit is equipped with two hydrogenerators, one of which is capricious and unreliable, the main battery charging system, the one without which it is not possible to continue, is the engine. To save diesel, after Cape Horn, in a moment of tranquility, I decided to use hydro generators for 24 hours. During this time, the engine cooled completely and when I went to start it, it wouldn't start. The hydrogenerator was not working at that time, because the speed of the boat was not enough. When I tried to start the engine, when I pushed that switch and the engine didn't start, when despite all of myself I asked the engine to please start and he didn't, there I had a real thrill of fear. An uncontrollable reaction of despair, darkness and fear all mixed together, not caused by the possibility of losing my life, but by a possibility that life showed me at that moment: the possibility of not finishing the race . At that moment I felt the full load of energy invested in this project, on my part, by the sponsors, by all those who worked and who work with me. See everything waver, generated a kind of cerebral Short Circuit in me. Finally, fortunately, the engine started and only a huge fright remained of this. And that fright, a bit like the madeleine soaked in tea of which Proust spoke in "In Search of Lost Time", brought back the memory of the panic, of the only time I experienced it. My first and for now only panic.

My first panic

I am seven years old, I am sitting in the back seats of my father's Juliet, we go home after visiting family friends. My father parks, I get out of the car with my mother who takes me by the hand to cross. A scooter goes by with two people a few centimeters from us and my mother 's bag is snatched . My body stiffens and petrifies. I remember the noise of the scooter, the scream of my mother, I see my father sprinting to chase them, I remember the scent of the interior of the Giulietta, the smell of the burnt mixture of the scooter accelerating at full speed. They are my mother's despair, my father's anger and my petrifaction at the same time. It was there that I first encountered panic, that I shook his hand to get to know him. I was just a kid and it took me by surprise. Fear opened the door for him and he took possession of me in half an instant. Since that day I have seen it again, but in this journey that is the Vendée Globe I relived in memory, the feeling I felt and that I know I could have felt. Because panic always accompanies fear, always tries to come and see you. I classify panic as a fear so great that it immobilizes, does not allow to add anything else. It crystallizes and petrifies. When panic invades you, you remain immobilized, with no chance to act, lost in your troubled thoughts more than a stormy ocean. When the engine didn't work, I didn't give the panic time to come knocking on my door : I immediately took action. I called the person on my team who is responsible for the engine on the ground as well as the technicians of the engine manufacturer himself, who immediately activated and with whom we immediately began to speculate until we found a solution.

gtrans snipped (pics at link) from Corrier della Sera

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, staysail said:

Let's just concentrate on what is best for a seaworthy long distance single handed raceboat and keep designers and skippers free to create them.

Can agree with many of these points, but also disagree with many parts.  If you just want to post a manifesto and rant, fine. If you're asking for a reasonable discussion, fine too. I just have zero interest in an ad-hominem shitfight. I'll leave that to others.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The ice problem could well be the most likely to be dropped or changed. Mike Golding, Conrad Humphreys, and Pete Goss (and more, but would have to check) all have noted the problem. This edition was 'mild' in the south.

Given the apparent cheapness of getting data to and from the fleet, and that the JVT boats manage with no limits (not sure about he Australian rescue limit, though), allowing shore based ice routing or the actual data itself to be available equally to all skippers,  might help free them up from unnecessary barriers.

Frankly though, can't see the skippers nor the organizers increasing the chance of failed or futile rescue attempts. The ice barrier is not only about ice.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stief said:

She sounds interesting . .. a RTW sailor who hadn't heard of the VG?

Clipper Race.

as we say in this thread she is not of the same bread as Dalin etc (more like a Herrmann)

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Snowden said:

Clipper Race.

as we say in this thread she is not of the same bread as Dalin etc (more like Herrmann)

Good to see that the audience is growing. Sir Robin's bet on the Clipper continues to pay. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sad news, but hope the skippers get a virtual welcome they can cherish

Quote

Vendée Globe. Arrival behind closed doors, the public banned from village

Decidedly, this edition of the Vendée Globe is unlike any other and the finish will not be sprained. This Thursday, the organization of the race announced that the finish would be behind closed doors, without an audience in the village. No big party on the village therefore. As for the channel, it could also be banned from the public, but the Prefecture has not yet communicated about it.

The organization of the Vendée Globe has decided. The finish of the race will be played behind closed doors and without an audience in the village because of the context of the health crisis that persists in France. "The Vendée Globe complies with the authorities' requests. The finish of the Vendée Globe will be played behind closed doors in the village, which will be closed to the public. Only people working on the event, including the media, will be able to access it. No public on the village therefore.

What about the ascent of the channel? The Prefecture of Vendée has not yet communicated a decree concerning any ban. Interviewed by our colleagues from France 3 Pays de la Loire, Yannick Moreau, the Mayor of Les Sables-d'Olonne nevertheless expressed his wish that the Sablais could welcome sailors as tradition requires: "I hope that sailors who have travelled around the world can be welcomed, it is a bit of a right for them and a duty for us. I hope that we can find a compromise between respecting sanitary gestures and at the same time having a little audience on the channel because they deserve it. "

Safari trans of V&V article by Laurene COROLLER.Published on 01/21/21 at 7:55 pm

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites