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6 hours ago, stief said:

@Haji Still following up Sam and Miranda's chat with Emma Richards reported three days ago in the Live (about her 1998 JVT mast break).  Her Around Alone race in 2002-03  also sounds like a heartbreaker for many, with many remarkable stories.

Is this a decent enough account, or can you kindly recommend a better one? http://asianyachting.com/news/AroundAlone.htm 

Whoops, just saw this, sorry for the delay.  I hadn't seen that set of reports (or had forgotten them), so thanks for the link!  Looks like a very good compressed version of all the legs on one page.  Someday I need to put all of my reports from the 02/03 AA into a book. 

Too much of a memory wormhole for me to read that page entirely right now...too busy watching the current suspenseful event!  But I won't be able to resist at some point soon.

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":A 2h18 heure française, le team PRB a été informé du sauvetage de Kevin Escoffier par Jean Le Cam. " Kevin has been rescued.  

Give it a rest chaps. HB was another attempt at evolution, and they should be applauded for spending a fuck ton of money to do so. If you want to try and be innovative you run the risk of breakages al

VG sailors at sea in the rough A translation: JLC: Damien can you receive me ? DS: Yes Jean I can (garbled)... I don't think you're receiving me that well but I receive you very well. JL

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1 hour ago, Haji said:

Someday I need to put all of my reports from the 02/03 AA into a book. 

It's well past happy hour, so if you want, send me the reports and I'll rough then into some sort of narrative that you can edit and send to a real editor. Freely offered, no fees involved. Will need something to fill the next two months until the water softens. Offer lasts for a few more glasses. :P

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Good on them: 

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The relative silence from among the Vendée Globe leaders speaks volumes. Increasingly background activities are pared back to only what is necessary as the solo skippers devote all their energies to weather strategy, keeping fast and managing their energy reserves for what promises to be a final push, pressing tired bodies minds and boats to their limit in the pursuit of Vendée Globe victory.

Some skippers have made it be known, after 74 days, they want a few days respite from telling their stories to focus entirely on racing, to remain in the zone.  

more at https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/21852/all-quiet-on-the-western-front

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For the leaders who are 1000 or so miles SSW of the Azores this morning this stretch of the Atlantic is not as cooperative as it was forecast to be. Charlie Dalin is calculated to be 160 miles ahead of Louis Burton but the high pressure they are expecting to cross is more unstable and with lighter winds than expected as it moves eastwards. This can present opportunities again for the chasing groupe of boats as the leaders slow.

As the anticyclone evolves it is looking like it will not prove as quick and easy for the leaders to join the dots and connect into the low pressure train coming from the west, aiming to get to the favourable SW’ly at the Azores.

It is looking light then for the leaders for the coming 24 hours, through until Friday morning. There will still be wind but not as much as was hoped for. And as the high moves east and south the trade winds will diminish progressively down this part of the Atlantic.

In the medium term it does seem like the leaders will converge, compacting again more, close to the Azores. And the differential between Louis Burton (Bureau Vallée 2) and Charlie Dalin (Apivia) is far from conclusive in either way right now. There is now 300 miles of lateral offset between Burton in the west and Dalin in the east but, increasingly, speeds and angles suggest they are moving into the high at the same time and will slow at around the same time.

That can be an opportunity for Germany’s Boris Herrmann (SeaExplorer-Yacht Club de Monaco), Thomas Ruyant (LinkedOut) and Yannick Bestaven (Maître CoQ IV) to catch back some miles and as the high moves east it will favour the boats on the inside of the curve, allowing them to stay with the breeze longer and sail less distance. And that also means especially Damien Seguin (APICIL Group) and Giancarlo Pedote (Prysmian Group)  (160 to 200 miles distance from the leader), but they are also further to the east.

They can cut some of the corner, reducing their route to Les Sables d'Olonne. So too it will be the same for Jean Le Cam (Yes We Cam!) and Benjamin Dutreux (OMIA-Water Family) who are coming back strongly as they are still in the stronger trade winds at their slightly more southerly latitude. The initial outcome – west, south or middle – will become clearer towards the end of the weekend.

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Love the title...      SEVEN DAYS TO DESTINY                 20/1/2021

en-october-27-2020-french-skipper-c-1600 © Stephane MAILLARD

Seven D

The race at the front of the Vendée Globe is electrifying. None of the eight previous editions has ever witnessed a race finish as open and intense. Right now the leading skippers are trying to get their heads around a do-or-die sprint to the finish line in Les Sables d’Olonne which has now less than one week to run.

Even the most informed of France’s pre-race race prognosticators did not project a podium finish for the maverick 35 year old from Saint Malo Louis Burton, but most avid race watchers now see the skipper of Bureau Vallée as having a small lead as he is furthest north and faster than his nearest rivals.

Even if the rankings have him fourth this evening – as he is to the west of his rivals - it looks like he may be first to round the Azores high pressure and connect with the low pressure express train to the finish line.

“He can be into the southwesterly winds first and benefit from a lane through the high pressure corridor with a more constant wind flow and then with a more sustained better angle than his pursuers.” Suggested Sébastien Josse the weather consultant for the Vendée Globe. “The others will be more downwind, forcing them to manoeuvre more. Louis could stay in the same flow as far as Les Sables d'Olonne and be in several hours ahead at the finish."

But the leader on the rankings Charlie Dalin says the two will re-connect, “We will meet again under the Azores and we will have to do a series of gybes and sail changes, there is still a lot of work to do before the finish!"

As the tension builds and time counts down to the finish, the skippers are feeling the pressure like never before. Thomas Ruyant continues to be quick but the skipper who originates from Dunkirk, Normandy was clearly frustrated that with no port foil he will be compromised during the final sprint and may lose out.

pour-son-passage-du-cap-horn-thomas-r-36

“I knew the Atlantic climb was going to be complicated with a lot of starboard tack,” he told the radio session this morning. "With a compromised boat it is difficult and frustrating not to compete with those around me on equal terms. But here I am I take my troubles patiently and hold on to a competitive spirit. In a few days, the downwind conditions will allow me to stabilize things a bit. There might be less of a performance gap so I'll do everything to keep in touch. "

Germany’s Boris Herrmann (Seaexplorer-Yacht Club de Monaco) has progressively recovered miles since his passage across the Doldrums and is back pacing the leaders mile for mile, quickest on all of today’s measures and looking like he has the potential to finish across the line in a podium position.

seaexplorer-yacht-club-de-monaco-r-360-3© Boris Herrmann / Imoca“It is pretty bouncy in the trade winds. Boris is looking forwards to getting into the high pressure system and getting into the lighter regime to really make sure he in the best shape for the finish sprint. He is intent in really looking after himself these next couple of days. He is very even headed and in a good place in his head. The breeze is dropping sooner than expected and you can see Louis is into light winds already.” Commented Herrmann’s usual co-skipper Will Harris.

 

 

Predictions have the leaders arriving into Les Sables on the 27th January with as many as six boats arriving on the same day.

 

 
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Bestaven this morning, 'No one has this race won yet'

21 January 2021 - 06:55 • 7893 views

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The skipper of Maître CoQ IV who is in fourth this morning at 156 miles behind the leader suffered technical damage at Cape Horn but says he has now regained practically all his potential, at least downwind, which is good news as there will be a lot of downwind sailing into Les Sables d’Olonne.

"I am in easterly trade winds between 17 and 18 knots. I am coming up quite quickly towards the Azores. That is not bad at all especially since I'm lacking a bit in sail power fore and aft because I'm having problems with my J2. So I am a bit unbalanced. Normally the wind will gradually ease and I will have some sail changes during the day. I could probably lift a bit to the right because the high pressure is shifting east.

I'm going to pass near the Azores archipelago, islands that I like because I won Class40 races there! They are amazing, I remember climbing the volcano on Pico, a cone which rises to more than 2350 meters. But this time there is one objective getting to Les Sables d'Olonne.

And there will be a lot of maneuvers to get there! Gybes, frontal crossings. This race is not won by anyone yet, especially since I have all my downwind sails. I was able to repair my furlers a little and I have, apart from my large spinnaker, masthead and one fractional. I have nothing to lose as I am currently in fifth place and some have technical issues to resolve. That makes you want to try different options… ”

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this is a proper scrap at the front, not just a glorified cruise. hats off to the guys racing hard after 75 days at sea.

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6 hours ago, stief said:

It's well past happy hour, so if you want, send me the reports and I'll rough then into some sort of narrative that you can edit and send to a real editor. Freely offered, no fees involved. Will need something to fill the next two months until the water softens. Offer lasts for a few more glasses. :P

Can you pm me your email?

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Some news from Sam this morning on the French VG, Google translated

After her forced stop in Cape Town, Sam Davies left the race to "save children". The Franco-British solo now opens the way for Alexia Barrier and Ari Huusela in the Pacific, a few hundred miles from Cape Horn! “It's nice to hear from the race! I'm in a bit of a storm, approaching Cape Horn: the last few days there has been a lot of wind with squalls, hail, and it has been very cold! Currently, there are only 35 knots, and things will get stronger during the day ... But all is well. Cape Horn will be deserved because it is not easy and not very fast. I am happy to come out of the South Seas. And besides, I'm paving the way for Alexia and Ari, whom I'm happy to have caught up with from South Africa: I feel less alone! And we exchange a lot by email and WhatsApp: we compare our squalls, our technical problems, our struggles and our joys ... It's cool to have fellow travelers for this crossing! The boat is doing well and so is the skipper: I am sailing out of the race so the only stake I have and which is very important is to participate in the rescue of children with Mécénat Chirurgie Cardiaque. But I take care of myself and my boat in this Pacific Ocean, with its sometimes extreme conditions, and my broken ribs hurt a lot less! Thanks for hearing from me and thanks for all the kids who follow me! And then I hope that Isabelle Joschke can leave Salvador de Bahia when I pass Brazil: it would be cool to finish the world tour together ... "

Sam Davies, out of the race / Heart Initiatives

 

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Pip did it! "It's always the starting that is the difficult bit." Good job explaining her mast climb procedure.

Quote

Yesterday I finally backed myself into enough of a corner to contemplate another mast climb. I'd done nearly every other job on the boat and the conditions were pretty much perfect. I have been sailing with either none or unreliable wind data for four weeks now and it is taking it's toll. I am tired through having to be more hands on with steering and I have struggled on navigation and decision making having no immediate reference of how strong the wind is and where it is coming from. From deck level it looked like something had hit the wind wand but the fact that I am getting some data to the deck suggested the wired connections were still ok. I could see through the binoculars that one of the cups from the anemometer was missing.

I really hate climbing the mast. I don't think that anyone likes it and I know in this race we have all been up and down like yoyo's and other skippers have climbed masts in terrible conditions so hats off to them. Even in 6 knots of wind and a light chop it scares the pants off me but I knew that if I could fix the wand it will make a big difference to my life and I had a choice yesterday, to sit round feeling powerless watching the three boats behind me romp North and eat into my lead or do something positive which would move me forwards, not on the water but giving better potential for what happens next.

When I have something big like this to do that I am scared of, I tend to sit around for a bit. I think about it. I try to imagine me doing it. To an outsider it must look like I have just given up, sitting staring into space. Then at some point in this little ritual I think I get embarrassed at my own procrastination, and without warning (sometimes even suprising myself), I will get up get my stuff together and just go and do it. Once I have started I will finish. It's always the starting that is the difficult bit.

It took me an hour and a half yesterday to climb the mast, remove the wand, inspect, change the cups on the anemometer and descend. It was terrifying. I was climbing up a rope pulled up to the masthead spinnaker halyard lock on the windward side and my main concern was being thrown around the front of the mast by a wave and then struggling to get back to windward again. For large sections of the mast there is some rigging to hold onto and I used this to both pull myself up and keep on the windward side. However in some parts there is nothing, just me and the mast. Here I was trying to use the mainsail to hold my position. Either standing on batten cars or pinch gripping the luff of the sail. Even in the mild conditions I was thrown around the front of the mast a couple of times and had some desperate scrabbling and swinging in mid air to get back to windward. During one set of aggressive little waves I had nothing to hold on to so did my best impression of a Koala wrapping arms and legs around the mast. The waves subsided and I tried to pull my limbs free to climb again and discovered that my right leg was now trapped between the luff and the mainsail track. My knee appeared to be too big to bring back through the gap in the other direction. The power in the main is so huge there was no way I could move the sail so my only option was to grit my teeth and physically pull my leg back through the hole. This I did with both hands, afterall there was no need to hold on I was stuck. Grinding my knee against the mast track I pulled it back through and now have some impressive bruises to demonstrate what a mast climbing hero I am.  I afterwards adjusted my technique to push back and out with my toes on the track .. Koala is not to be recommended. The rest of the climb was pretty quick after this. I was scared enough to just want it over with and working at the top of the mast was far easier than the climb or the descent. I finally made it down to the deck, very bruised, a bit sunburned, dehydrated but feeling like I have made a positive difference and very sure I never want to go up there again. 

The mission was a success. I once again have wind data though it didn't bring good news.

I hope that the breeze will fill in again today and as I am writing now it is looking more positive.

more at https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/21859/pip-hare-has-climbed-her-mast-to-repair-her-anemometer-it-is-still-game-on

(my old tri had a rope 'ladder' of 5/8" 3-strand twist that could be hoisted and secured to the deck, a bit like a ratline. It gave a web to hang onto to avoid the 'koala' issue. Curious why, with all the lines aboard an IMOCA, that something like that isn't used)

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15 minutes ago, stief said:

Pip did it! "It's always the starting that is the difficult bit." Good job explaining her mast climb procedure.

more at https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/21859/pip-hare-has-climbed-her-mast-to-repair-her-anemometer-it-is-still-game-on

(my old tri had a rope 'ladder' of 5/8" 3-strand twist that could be hoisted and secured to the deck, a bit like a ratline. It gave a web to hang onto to avoid the 'koala' issue. Curious why, with all the lines aboard an IMOCA, that something like that isn't used)

I still don't understand why they don't use the cuples sensor as a backup, I self use them on my rotating mast and it works well with the autopilot.

https://lcjcapteurs.com/en/categorie-girouette-anemometres-capteur-vent/racing-sailboats/

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485681088_ProjectionsSunday24th00UTC22-01-21.thumb.jpg.5ea8157c7bfcf0bcbd71d7c7bb822e55.jpgWeather analysis

Pic #1 has the current situation and weather routing for the top-4 and NOAA OPC Atlantic surface analysis 06 Z this morning. The weather models don't agree much for the coming days, as the models struggle to capture the dynamic situation at the North Atlantic. Although the Azores HP is not moving much, just a bit west in the coming days, to the west lot's of things are going to happen. I had a look at the NOAA OPC surface analysis forecasts for 00z 24th UTC and 12Z 24th. And overlayed these synoptic maps with the GFS routing predictions. See pics # 2 and 3. So the situation is a cold front west of the fleet, moving east in the coming days. And a warm front north of the fleet, more or less stationary in the 2 coming days. The NOOA OPC Atlantic surface predictions indicate for Saturday a gale to the west of the fleet, and one east of the Azores north of the Azores HP.  At Sunday 24th 1200 UTC the warm front is projected to have past Burton, as it moves NE with the attached LP zone to the NW of the fleet. Or it is Burton chasing the front, or both.

A LP zone will have arrived Sunday 0000 UTC west of the fleet, with a gale west of the Azores HP. The top-4 will be more to the north already. Yellow arrows indicate the projected boat positions. As can be seen in picture 3, the boats change their heading to NE after passing that wam front. Projections look more or less valid. As that LP moves NE and gets further away from the Azores HP, the gale is projected to extinguish.

Weather routing table in pic 4. Burton still first and line honors, Herrmann 2nd within 2 hours. Bestaven, Ruyant and Pedote also arriving at the 27th.

So what gives with the time compensations? See pic # 5. Bestaven projected to beat Herrman with a 15 minutes to spare :blink:. Burton 3rd with 3,5 hrs behind Herrmann. Dalin 4th, and Le Cam a very honorary non-foiling 5th projected. If forecasts hold up etc etc. As a lot is uncertain atm regarding the weather, it could be a very close race between Bestaven and Herrman for who gets the eternal glory. The finish this VG-edition could get as close as the last Volvo Ocean Race finish in The Hague it seems. Which is still burned on my retina.

Exciting days ahead!

 

 

Top-4 routing with NOAA OPC 06Z today.png

Projections Sunday 24th 00 UTC 22-01-21.jpg

Projections Sunday 24th 1200 UTC 22-01-21.jpg

weather routing table 22-01-21.png

VG ranking adjusted 22-21-21.jpg

Edited by Herman
I just noted that with pics #2 and 3 that the overlay is inaccurate/shifted, but this post took me already 4 hrs. So no adjustments.
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17 minutes ago, Herman said:

Exciting days ahead!

Great piece of work I did it on basis of av VMC not so accurate but 

  CORRECTED DTL
Boris Herrmann
 
0
Charlie Dalin
 
10
Louis Burton
 
29
Yannick Bestaven
 
30
Thomas Ruyant
 
116
Jean Le Cam
 
145
Damien Seguin
 
158
   
Assuming Av VMC for compensation for Boris,Yanic,Jean
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Thx Herman for this projections, but with Bestaven being without bowsprit and no possibilities to carry gennaker and spi, I doubt that a 105% polar is right and should probably de downgraded.

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20 minutes ago, popov said:

Thx Herman for this projections, but with Bestaven being without bowsprit and no possibilities to carry gennaker and spi, I doubt that a 105% polar is right and should probably de downgraded.

See article upthread, Yannick is now only lacking his J2

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Yoann Richomme takes a wild guess at the finish order, 

Quote

Well, for this last column before the finish, I get wet and I give you the ETAs of the first (see sketch above of the positions next Wednesday), with calculation of the bonuses to see what the final classification would make - to be taken, as usual, with a grain of salt!

Either, by including the bonuses:

1) Bureau Vallée 27 5:00 
2) Apivia 27 at 06:00 
3) SeaExplorer Yacht Club Monaco 27 at 07:00 
4) Master CoQ  27 at 09:00 am 
5) LinkedOut 27 20:00 
6) Prysmian Group 27 at 21:00 
7 ) Yes we Cam! the 28 at 02:00 
8) Groupe Apicil the 28 at 04:00 
9) Omia Water Family the 29 at 12:00

gtrans snipped from amongst many more good comments in today's T&S

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Something subtly great about this edition...  While there's obvious enthusiasm around the podium race, and intrigue associated with the time, there's a lot to remain interested in, long after the first few boats finish...

-First, obviously, there will be the timing of the boats coming in with time corrections, and the impact on the podium.

-But then there's also the final position for several others who have put up amazing performances...  I'm thinking of Seguin (if he doesn't podium), Pedote, and Dutreax.

-But then it won't get dull, with boats trundling in once a week for two months...  Rather, we'll have....

-Tripon trying to run down Sorel for 10th.

-Cremer coming in as the first woman (although it's a bummer that Joschke and Davies didn't make it, as they'd have been in the pack up front).

-Beyou's likely emotional arrival, which may yet still turn into a race for 13th or possibly even 12th.  It would be great to see him trying to catch Cremer at the end (although in that scenario, I'd probably root for Cremer to hold him off).

-Then...  Wow...  it looks lke a tight race of 6 boats for 15th place.  It'll be interesting to see who's up for pushing to try to win a spot that far back.  I'm starting to think Pip may pull it off, although Koji might take off once he gets in the trade winds.

-It might get a little less interesting once those 6 have settled their positions, but Cousin, Merron, and Giraud are sailing close to one another and may produce a bit of competition for postions 21-23.  Somewhere in there, Sam should also arrive.  Hopefully Barrier and Huusela won't be too long after, as it would be nice for them to arrive before people totally tune out.

I can't remember a past event like this with so much going on all the way through the fleet.  The podium race itself is outstanding, but we're getting little bonuses throughout.

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Ari, calm as ever:

"It's been almost 24 hours like that and i just made my sailing career's most horrifying gybe on the gusts up to 45 knots and seas which are really really high heavy seas"

 

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8 hours ago, Herman said:

[awesome analysis]

Imagine... the first 9 boats finishing in under 24 hours... after racing non stop round the world for about 3 months, and racing hard !... wow...

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7 minutes ago, OPAL said:

Good link. And Will Harris says we can watch it on the dashboard

Quote

Harris says Herrmann has upped his intensity and the dashboard on the Team Malizia’s website, that displays a range of performance indicators from the boat, backs that up with evidence of more sail changes, rig set-up alterations and foil tweaks. “It really kind of shows that’s he’s upping his game a bit,”said Harris, a veteran of two Figaro campaigns who raced the Transat Jacques Vabre with Herrmann on this boat in 2019.

 

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Bets are off :

Yoann Richomme says that it will be (after times bonuses applied):

1. Burton

2. Dalin

3. Hermann

 

Dominique Vittet from Voiles et Voiliers:

1. Hermann

and after that too close to call between Bestaven, Dalin and Burton

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11 hours ago, mowgli said:

I still don't understand why they don't use the cuples sensor as a backup, I self use them on my rotating mast and it works well with the autopilot.

https://lcjcapteurs.com/en/categorie-girouette-anemometres-capteur-vent/racing-sailboats/

They are generally not as accurate as the rotating models.... The big question is how much accuracy do you need. I agree I don't know why they don't use the solidstate sensors more there are several manufacturers and models to choose from and are well proven having been around for 20 years or so now.

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4 minutes ago, littlechay said:

They are generally not as accurate as the rotating models.... The big question is how much accuracy do you need. I agree I don't know why they don't use the solidstate sensors more there are several manufacturers and models to choose from and are well proven having been around for 20 years or so now.

We have used both solid state and rotating wind sensors for test rigs. We have not found the rotating to be more accurate, as they have inertia to overcome, tend to measure direction with a lot of noise, and do not correct for heel, which the solid state units do. We calibrated by driving in still air against GPS speed, so not super accurate, but good enough for our application.

We use solid state sensors exclusively now, as they are also more reliable in our experience.

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1 minute ago, hump101 said:

We have used both solid state and rotating wind sensors for test rigs. We have not found the rotating to be more accurate, as they have inertia to overcome, tend to measure direction with a lot of noise, and do not correct for heel, which the solid state units do. We calibrated by driving in still air against GPS speed, so not super accurate, but good enough for our application.

We use solid state sensors exclusively now, as they are also more reliable in our experience.

Why/in what way does a wind sensor correct for heel? 

 

 

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Why/in what way does a wind sensor correct for heel? 

Well an off the shelf Airmar does:

Wind speed & direction 
Solid-state compass
10 Hz weather GPS
3-axis accelerometer
3-axis rate gyro

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27 minutes ago, hump101 said:

We use solid state sensors exclusively now, as they are also more reliable in our experience.

Absolutely and this is the point especially for this type of race! They do consume more power of course but these boats can afford it 

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The military has sensors that is reading wind out to several thousand yards both strength and direction.  Civilian versions are close 1000 yards.  Imagine being able to read the wind out to 1000 yards and feeding that into the autopilot, combine that with laser distance measurement to measure incoming seastate all fed into an autopilot. AP could then anticipate instead of react. That'd be good fun.

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On 1/21/2021 at 9:06 PM, stief said:

Clarisse update. 5 clicks to get a rough trans, but looks like she explains 'coupon' repair (cups on her wind instrument? electrical coupling on something?),  her use of sat images, and that she's cleaned up. She's up, alright.

English captions now available.

That was an awesome "fuck you"! :D

You go girl!

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4 hours ago, hump101 said:

We have used both solid state and rotating wind sensors for test rigs. We have not found the rotating to be more accurate, as they have inertia to overcome, tend to measure direction with a lot of noise, and do not correct for heel, which the solid state units do. We calibrated by driving in still air against GPS speed, so not super accurate, but good enough for our application.

We use solid state sensors exclusively now, as they are also more reliable in our experience.

I use the solid state Captuers instrument and have found it to be very accurate and maintenance free.  Low wind velocities, of which we have plenty, seem fine.  Better than the cups.  Nothing to get shaken loose and much lighter.  

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I don't know if it has been posted here. Did not find it...

The race organization confirmed that there will be no public along the channel or to welcome the sailors after the finish line... Due to the COVID situation in France, the authorities have banned big crowds and there will be no exception. So VERY limited number of people allowed per team, and all tested for COVID... The press conference will also be virtual.

It is going to be a weird finish celebration...

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7 minutes ago, Laurent said:

I don't know if it has been posted here. Did not find it...

The race organization confirmed that there will be no public along the channel or to welcome the sailors after the finish line... Due to the COVID situation in France, the authorities have banned big crowds and there will be no exception. So VERY limited number of people allowed per team, and all tested for COVID... The press conference will also be virtual.

It is going to be a weird finish celebration...

Woah, I'd read that there was no welcoming the racers home, but didn't realize that included the channel.  What a bummer for the racers.

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6 minutes ago, Rainbow Spirit said:

Louis has gybed north, will it pay off? Light winds showing up for the leaders as they approach the finish, who will benefit?

I'm a bit surprised by Burton's gybe this early, didn't expect that for awhile. 

Light wind at the finish will benefit any of the racers without time compensation from the PRB rescue.

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10 minutes ago, Rainbow Spirit said:

Louis has gybed north, will it pay off? Light winds showing up for the leaders as they approach the finish, who will benefit?

Think there could well be a problem. Less than 10kts over 4 hours isn't just easing off to make a gybe. 

Screenshot_20210123-091727.png

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10 hours ago, littlechay said:

They are generally not as accurate as the rotating models.... The big question is how much accuracy do you need. I agree I don't know why they don't use the solidstate sensors more there are several manufacturers and models to choose from and are well proven having been around for 20 years or so now.

As a back-up it it is still better than noting in strong winds, Mine works ok even with the rotating mast I have. They have nmea2000 so it is easy to switch from sensor if the preferred one stops working. You can then wait till the winds get les strong to repair the cups on the preferred one. You can also put both on the nmea2000 bus an select the on you need in the displays.

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10 hours ago, hump101 said:

We have used both solid state and rotating wind sensors for test rigs. We have not found the rotating to be more accurate, as they have inertia to overcome, tend to measure direction with a lot of noise, and do not correct for heel, which the solid state units do. We calibrated by driving in still air against GPS speed, so not super accurate, but good enough for our application.

We use solid state sensors exclusively now, as they are also more reliable in our experience.

That’s not really a like for like comparison given that all these boats will make a heel correction in the nav system using the boat gyro

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4 minutes ago, Snowden said:

That’s not really a like for like comparison given that all these boats will make a heel correction in the nav system using the boat gyro

What is the use for your correction if you don't have a working windsensor. I think it is not a problem to switch the correction table.

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They really need to move to a regular 2 or 3 hours  positions updates or something now, come on !!

How about "spamming" them on twitter ? :)

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46 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Nail biter, Burton feels the low coming in with lulls etc.

Not 100% sure about this...I hope there's nothing wrong.

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22 hours ago, popov said:

Thx Herman for this projections, but with Bestaven being without bowsprit and no possibilities to carry gennaker and spi, I doubt that a 105% polar is right and should probably de downgraded.

Thanks Popov, noted. I have set Bestaven from 105% to 101%.  

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Weather update

@Hitchhikerprovided fresh polars for the 2019-2020 launched boats, thanks again. These show a stronger performance clause-hauled and broad reaching compared to the ones I use, the IMOCA 60 2016 generation powered up to different percentages. See pic #1 the yellow circles. After working for a couple of hours on these today already, I will hope to get these up and running tomorrow. Set polars Bestaven to 101% for missing J2.

The big picture has not changed, LP to the west and Azores HP to the east. The private patch of wind for Burton which is not in GFS and that I mentioned 2 days ago seems to materialize, see pic 2 and the latest 30 mins speeds in the latest report. Projections for top-5 boats in pic#3. Weather table in pic #4. But as noted, that private patch of wind is not in GFS so I'm probably underestimating Burton's current performance. 

Sailing conditions for 3 boats have become better from "difficult" to "bumpy". 

Pic #5 has the adjusted finish times. For some skippers almost no changes, Bestaven still to win, Herrmann still 2nd but shared 2nd with with drumroll..... Le Cam! The king seems to have been very busy in the past day, chopping a whopping 6 hrs off his ETA. I do so hope the man gets his podium ranking he deserves imho. Third ranking for Dalin, and line honors too. Burton projected 4th.

But please remember to add a bit of salt, no bets are taken due to the hard to catch weather atm. 

graphical differences polars DJ and IMOCA 2016 @ 105%.png

ECMWF private wind Burton.jpg

projections top-5 boats.png

weather routing table 23-01-21.png

VG ranking after time compensations 23-01-21.png

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Till the end of that strange hook Burton had consistent speed. After he is slowed down a bit. Same as Dalin now.
Looking at weather maps with fronts, it is a mess out there in strengths and directions.

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No end to the drama here, fingers crossed Burton does not have an issue and can compete to the end. He deserves a break, no, not that kind!

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35 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Till the end of that strange hook Burton had consistent speed. After he is slowed down a bit. Same as Dalin now.
Looking at weather maps with fronts, it is a mess out there in strengths and directions.

I don't think anyone could have written up a more nail-biting scenario than what's brewing now.

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Burton back to speed, go Louis! And he's going to get the stronger wind first.

Sam going to round the horn today, in daylight and "nice" conditions, just two more to get safely around although looks like will have a rougher go of it.

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20 minutes ago, Haji said:

I don't think anyone could have written up a more nail-biting scenario than what's brewing now.

If I recall, the IMOCAs need high tide to get up the channel into Les Sables.  So I wonder if the first finisher will have to wait for tide, and the first few finishers would go up the channel in procession.  Probably not very likely, but it would be pretty awesome if it happens.

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9 hours ago, tDot said:

Woah, I'd read that there was no welcoming the racers home, but didn't realize that included the channel.  What a bummer for the racers.

That is what I understood, reading a bit between the lines. I am not 100% sure I am right... It looks like the organizers even asked if they could set up something like a "rolling crowd": keeping the people moving so you do not have a bunch of strangers shoulder to shoulder, coughing in each other's nose for hours... but that was not accepted by the authorities.

Now... that being said... knowing how obedient is a French crowd to authorities, I would not be completely surprised if a number of people sneak in on the East side of the channel, from the beach or on the west side through the streets of the city, unless the authorities completely cordon off the harbour entrance.

Once again, if I understood well, each team will be given a few dozen passes for team members, family and key VIP sponsor to greet the skippers at the pontoon. Everybody will have to have a negative PCR test.

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1 hour ago, Corryvreckan said:

If I recall, the IMOCAs need high tide to get up the channel into Les Sables.  So I wonder if the first finisher will have to wait for tide, and the first few finishers would go up the channel in procession.  Probably not very likely, but it would be pretty awesome if it happens.

Correct, the channel does not draw 4.5m at low tide. I believe that one year, knowing that the second boat was hundreds of miles behind, the winner decided to pass the last night at sea, waiting to pass the line in daylight and sail up the channel in daylight with a big crowd, rather than doing it at 3:00 AM, alone... The opposite is also true. I heard a story of a skipper who had a bitter-sweet memory of his arrival because just after passing the finish line, he did not have much time to sail through the channel and get to the pontoon before the tide was too low; so he had to "rush" through the channel, instead of basking into the cheering and applause of the crowd.

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

Till the end of that strange hook Burton had consistent speed. After he is slowed down a bit. Same as Dalin now.
Looking at weather maps with fronts, it is a mess out there in strengths and directions.

We will probably not know before the finish... Lots of speculation going on, presumably.

"Louis Burton, complicated early morning

In the 'match within the match' between Apivia and Bureau Vallée 2, the ascendancy may have changed sides. This Saturday morning, between 5:30 and 8:30 am, we noticed that Louis Burton's route was not as straight as Charlie Dalin's," explains Jacques Caraës, the race director. Is it a sail change, is he sailing under spinnaker, is his aerofoil (which affects the performance of the autopilot) still as efficient? "Since then, Louis Burton has regained speed (more than 15 knots) and remains neck and neck with Apivia. But in these moments when every detail counts, this fact of racing has not escaped anyone's notice, and even less so to the rivals of the Malouin."

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Burton back to speed, go Louis! And he's going to get the stronger wind first.

Sam going to round the horn today, in daylight and "nice" conditions, just two more to get safely around although looks like will have a rougher go of it.

I'm still rooting for Yannick, but hugely impressed by Louis.

Sam, (out  of the rankings but still concentrating on the aims of Initiatives Coeur, heart surgery for kids in third world), passed the longitude of Cape Horn just before 5 pm UTC, in fresh conditions. Her blog (in French) can be found here

https://live.initiatives-coeur.fr/vendee-globe/2020/vue-carto

Her blog from earlier today (Google translated)

Hello

I'm writing this from my bunk where I'm stuck while my freeze-dried dinner rehydrates.

The sea condition gradually increased throughout the day, and the wind increased. At first it was pretty good and the boat was moving quickly over the waves. But eventually the wind got a little too strong and we started jumping on the waves and diving into the ones ahead. The wind was blowing steadily at 40 knots with gusts well above. This is the tricky moment because it is still bearable at this level, but if the wind strengthens a bit, we go into survival mode. In this case, the next step is to lower the mainsail, but when the wind is really strong it is a very delicate operation and it is the sailor who has to take the upper hand. As I am no longer in the race, these decisions are easier to make and I prefer safety. So I decided to lower the mainsail before it got too windy. I was going to furl the storm jib for the maneuver, but its line is out and I will have to go to the bow to rewind it, which is not really a safe option with the sea conditions at the moment. .

Anyway, the mainsail came down fairly safely, and I attached it to the boom. We're definitely in storm mode here!

I would have preferred to take 4 reefs as that would have been a better option, I'm missing a bit of sail area at the moment. Good lessons are learned here! ! A few more hours of strong winds and rough seas and 140 miles to Cape Horn. I will not forget this passage anytime soon!

And I won't have much time to rest because these strong conditions will continue at least as far as the Falklands - I have not yet escaped the clutches of the Southern Ocean!

These challenges are difficult, but I chose to be here. Despite the dire situation, I take the time to think about the children I fundraise for. My struggles are nothing compared to what they have to endure every day to survive. Hopefully this adventure can help as many children as possible. I am there for them. And thank you for your support.

Sam xx

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7 hours ago, yl75 said:

They really need to move to a regular 2 or 3 hours  positions updates or something now, come on !!

How about "spamming" them on twitter ? :)

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/21896/towards-the-closest-winning-margin-yet

At 200 miles from the finish line, the race trackers will be updated every 30 minutes and then every 5 minutes from  60 miles from the crossing.

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Just now, Corryvreckan said:

So if I'm reading that right, he's projecting Boris, Yannick and Charlie on the podium, all within an hour on corrected time?

Wow.

Actually

1. Bestaven

2. Hermann

3. Dalin

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2 minutes ago, Bebmoumoute said:

Actually

1. Bestaven

2. Hermann

3. Dalin

I stand corrected.  Forgot that Bestaven had the extra 15 minutes.  The idea that 15 mins of corrected time might make the difference is mind-blowing.

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4 minutes ago, Corryvreckan said:

I stand corrected.  Forgot that Bestaven had the extra 15 minutes.  The idea that 15 mins of corrected time might make the difference is mind-blowing.

Sorry it's actually :

 

1. Herrmann

2. Bestaven +0h10

3. Dalin +0h42

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