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2 minutes ago, SaltyPuppy said:

You can kind of guesstimate Boris position when you put his data-page next to the official tracker...

 

 

Granted.  Just wish we didn't have to cross-reference multiple trackers and guestimate. 

It's like they ought to have a map or something... that updated all the boat positions at the same time.:P

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":A 2h18 heure française, le team PRB a été informé du sauvetage de Kevin Escoffier par Jean Le Cam. " Kevin has been rescued.  

Give it a rest chaps. HB was another attempt at evolution, and they should be applauded for spending a fuck ton of money to do so. If you want to try and be innovative you run the risk of breakages al

VG sailors at sea in the rough A translation: JLC: Damien can you receive me ? DS: Yes Jean I can (garbled)... I don't think you're receiving me that well but I receive you very well. JL

Posted Images

Believe me they don't care about their opponent's positions, it's too late for that and they are committed to their respective options. All they care about is pushing the boat as hard as possible.

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Will Dalin have favourable weather and waves to reach the line without jibing?
Wind speed is softening near finish line for all contenders of a podium spot.
Can Boris reach the line without jibing...
Does the build up of the seas in the coming 9 hours cost Bestaven speed ?
 

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45 minutes ago, staysail said:

...also if Louis was doing 18 kts its hard to believe he isn't in the circle by now?

Refresh your browser with F5 - Louis is 17 nm into the 200 nm circle  

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It's a pity that the VG organisation seems to be reading this thread and all SAT-AIS data for the IMOCA boats is no longer available. Not at Marinetraffic, also not at vesselfinder. 

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4 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's a pity that the VG organisation seems to be reading this thread and all SAT-AIS data for the IMOCA boats is no longer available. Not at Marinetraffic, also not at vesselfinder. 

Even the "normal" AIS seems to be disabled (positions 7h old). Wonder if this a conscious decision by the skippers or how the race organisers are doing that.

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1 minute ago, Hanne said:

Even the "normal" AIS seems to be disabled (positions 7h old). Wonder if this a conscious decision by the skippers or how the race organisers are doing that.

Doesn't sound very safe in some very busy shipping lanes

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4 minutes ago, Hanne said:

Even the "normal" AIS seems to be disabled (positions 7h old). Wonder if this a conscious decision by the skippers or how the race organisers are doing that.

I'm starting to think the VG is run by the same guys who made the final episode of the Sopranos.

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3 minutes ago, Corryvreckan said:

I'm starting to think the VG is run by the same guys who made the final episode of the Sopranos.

Switched writers after GRR Martin killed off too many beloved characters in the first act.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

It's a pity that the VG organisation seems to be reading this thread and all SAT-AIS data for the IMOCA boats is no longer available. Not at Marinetraffic, also not at vesselfinder. 

This is indeed strange. There is plenty of SAT-AIS reception from the bay, and a lot of traffic.

Actually seems most North Atlantic is almost empty of class B SAT-AIS boats, South Atlantic and another Oceans there are many present. Might be an issue or intentional.

BTW situation with SAT-AIS is improving, was it yesterday that SpaceX launched again multiple satellites with SAT-AIS receivers, number is increasing all the time. This won't make it to this race, but next for sure.

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Weather analysis
Pic # 1 has the 11:30 positions and NOOA OPC surface overlay for 06 UTC. A HP zone south west of Portugal, and a handful of LP’s on the north west Atlantic. The developing storm near the Azores I mentioned yesterday has evolved into an official one. Dutreux is caught by that storm expanding north and west. But he still manages to keep up boat speed to 16 kts, as the wind angle seems to be OK for broad reaching or half wind sailing. The top-5 boats have light winds to the finish. 

When looking at the projected tracks I see that these deviate from the actual heading of the boats according to the official tracker. With additional gybes for both Dalin and Herrmann. Don’t think so. Thus the actual wind direction is probably different from GFS. In favor for the 2 southern boats. The scenario Richomme pictured that could happen, a wind shift in the wrong way that required an extra gybe for Dalin, does seem not to materialize.


Routing table in pic #2. To be taken with salt for Dalin and Herrmann due to the inaccurate GFS wind direction. Their ETA’s are over estimated, they should arrive quicker. Burton and Herrmann to arrive within 1 (one) minute after each other. 

Pic 3 the adjusted finish times. Bestaven's march through the top ranks in the past days which I called “impressive” yesterday, seems to culminate as number one on the podium. Herrmann 2nd, Dalin 3rd and line honors. Burton 4th. Ruyant 5th. JLC has been doing good business with the 6 Bft around his boat and his ETA has come down with another 2 hours, probably 6th spot. 

 

pic 1 routing and overlay 27-01-21.png

pic 2 weather routing table.png

pic 3 adjusted fiish times 270121.png

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Dee, yes. Alec Wilkinson?  we'll see.

Andi Robertson is on the Live now with Antoine Mermod, Christian Dumard,  and François Gabart

Quote

The live video coverage of the finishes can be followed in English on the Vendée Globe website and the race’s official social media channels, Facebook, Dailymotion and YouTube. English commentary will be thanks to Alec Wilkinson, Dee Caffari and Will Harris, covering the top five finishers. 

 

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Yannick is 189.6 miles from the finish and has a VMG of 19.3 knots...

So IF he can maintain that performance, and I know, it is a big IF, with his 10hr15min rescue bonus, he is actually arriving right about.... NOW.

Making him the winner !  :D

I know, I know, oversimplification...

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24 minutes ago, Laurent said:

Yannick is 189.6 miles from the finish and has a VMG of 19.3 knots...

So IF he can maintain that performance, and I know, it is a big IF, with his 10hr15min rescue bonus, he is actually arriving right about.... NOW.

Making him the winner !  :D

I know, I know, oversimplification...

I think you are looking at his distance to Charlie, not his distance to finish? I'm pulling for him, but he's still outside the 200 mile zone, right?

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27 minutes ago, Laurent said:

Yannick is 189.6 miles from the finish and has a VMG of 19.3 knots...

 

 

Am I looking at an out of date tracker? :blink: The latest update I'm seeing on the VG website tracker is showing Yannick at 264.3nm DTF as of 1330 UTC...?

ETA: @suider beat me to it. Slow again!

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Painful for Boris right now. Impressive to see the northern bet pay off for Bestaven. So many of these guys deserve to win this thing, I just hope we can keep all their achievements in mind a few years from now when we look back at it, every one of them has a remarkable story and has overcome long odds to be in this top 10 set.

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Interview of Charlie's sailing partner at his beginnings:

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Arrivée du Vendée Globe. « Sur l’eau, ce n’était plus le même », confie l’ami de Charlie Dalin

Charlie Dalin, le skipper d’Apivia, devrait franchir la ligne d’arrivée du Vendée Globe 2020-2021 en première position ce mercredi après-midi. Mais qui est vraiment le Havrais de 36 ans ? Éléments de réponse avec Thomas Aubert, son premier équipier et ami.

 

Thomas Aubert est le premier équipier et l’ami de Charlie Dalin. Pour Ouest-France, il a accepté d’évoquer la personnalité du skipper d’Apivia, qui devrait franchir la ligne d’arrivée du Vendée Globe 2020-2021 en première position ce mercredi :

« J’ai rencontré Charlie quand nous étions en seconde. C’était en 1997, on était tous les deux à l’école de voile et on voulait faire de la compétition. Notre moniteur de l’époque s’est dit : « Thomas et Charlie, ça pourrait matcher. On va les mettre ensemble sur un 420 ! » Charlie n’était pas vraiment timide mais il était discret, effacé, réservé. Il cachait bien son visage de compétiteur. À terre, il ne se faisait pas trop remarquer mais une fois que nous étions sur l’eau, ce n’était plus le même. Déjà, c’était tout pour la gagne. On venait de commencer à l’époque donc on n’avait pas un super niveau. Mais même à l’entraînement, il fallait toujours être devant les autres. J’étais un peu comme ça mais pas autant que lui.

Techniquement, il n’était pas plus fort que les autres au début, mais il avait ce côté « je ne lâche rien, j’ai la gnaque » qui était beaucoup plus poussé que les autres. Il n’acceptait jamais de faire une erreur, il était perfectionniste. Il se donnait les moyens d’y arriver, et s’il n’était pas au niveau, il faisait tout pour l’être. Il s’occupait de la voile avant de s’occuper de l’école. Ce n’est pas qu’il n’avait pas les capacités scolaires, mais il avait des facilités et faisait le minimum pour que ça passe (rires). À l’époque, il ne parlait pas de Vendée Globe mais de Mini-Transat. Il disait : « Je veux faire de la régate ! » C’était son truc, il ne se voyait pas faire autre chose.

 

« S’il en est là aujourd’hui, c’est uniquement grâce à lui »

S’il faut retenir une chose sur Charlie, c’est qu’il s’est construit lui-même, qu’il ne sort pas d’une famille de voileux qui l’a poussé à faire ça. Ses parents n’étaient pas là pour l’aider ou financer quoi que ce soit, il s’est démerdé tout seul. C’est lui qui s’est découvert une passion. S’il en est là aujourd’hui, c’est uniquement grâce à lui. Il n’a jamais perdu cette gnaque. Je me souviens qu’il m’avait appelé pour un convoyage lorsqu’il était en Figaro. Je m’étais dit : « C’est un convoyage, ça va être cool ! » En fait, pas du tout, il fallait toujours aller à fond !

 

D’un point de vue technique, ça ne m’a pas surpris qu’il connaisse une telle ascension. Il a toujours voulu faire ça et il s’en est toujours donné les moyens. Du coup, à chaque fois qu’il m’annonçait des trucs genre je vais faire la Mini-Transat, du Figaro ou construire un IMOCA, je n’ai jamais vraiment été étonné. Ça coulait un peu de source. Mais je me disais qu’il aurait peut-être un peu de mal à trouver des sponsors et à se vendre. Le côté communication lui manquait un peu mais il s’est beaucoup amélioré ces derniers temps. Je crois qu’il a pris des cours, il n’y a plus le choix maintenant.

Quand il est parti en Angleterre pour ses études, on ne se voyait pas très souvent. Mais depuis sept-huit ans, on a repris contact. C’est sympa. Qu’est-ce que Charlie aime en dehors de faire du bateau ? Faire du bateau (rires). Il est hyper sportif. On est parti régulièrement en vacances ensemble ces derniers temps et il ne s’arrêtait jamais. Quand il n’est pas sur un bateau, il fait du paddle, un footing ou il va nager. C’était aussi pour entretenir sa condition physique pour naviguer en IMOCA. Sur les deux dernières années, il ne pensait qu’à ça. Nous étions partis en juin 2019, juste avant la mise à l’eau d’Apivia (en août de la même année). On le sentait un peu stressé de ne pas être au niveau physiquement. Pendant ces vacances-là, il n’arrêtait pas. Il allait chercher le pain en courant, etc. Je pense que la victoire sur la Transat Jacques-Vabre lui a fait du bien. Même s’il était en double (aux côtés de Yann Eliès), ça l’a rassuré, il a vu qu’il n’était pas à la ramasse. Je l’ai vu à son retour, j’étais ému pour lui. D’autant que pour nous, Havrais, la Transat Jacques-Vabre c’est LA course.

 

Un Pitch pour Noël en souvenir du bon vieux temps

Après sa victoire, on voyait des affiches « Bravo Charlie Dalin ! » partout au Havre. C’était marrant de voir Charlie comme ça (sourire). C’est un peu le nouveau Paul Vatine. Et moi je suis l’ami d’une nouvelle star (rires). Quand on se voit, on se raconte les moments marrants qu’on a vécus ensemble. Par exemple, quand on était jeune et que l’on partait en régate pendant une semaine, il fallait que l’on se fasse des sandwichs tous les matins que l’on mettait dans un bidon étanche sur le semi-rigide de l’entraîneur. En général, en fin de semaine, on avait un peu la flemme de les faire. On remplissait le bidon de Pitchs que l’on mangeait toute la journée. Sur le Vendée Globe, je lui en avais mis un dans ses cadeaux de Noël. Quand il l’a vu, il a dit : « Ah, ça, c’est Thomas ! » (rires).

 

S’il gagne le Vendée Globe, sa notoriété va encore monter d’un cran. Je ne sais pas vraiment si on peut être préparé à ça. Tous les anciens vainqueurs disent qu’ils se prennent un énorme coup de massue sur la tête en arrivant. Mais je pense qu’il peut le supporter. Il a la tête sur les épaules, il ne prendra pas la grosse tête, ce n’est pas le genre. S’il gagne le Vendée Globe, je sais que ce n’est pas pour ça qu’il m’oubliera. Je ne réalise pas trop que je suis peut-être le premier équipier du prochain vainqueur du Vendée Globe. Je suis hyper content, je suis fier pour lui. À l’époque, si on m’avait dit que Charlie gagnerait le Vendée Globe un jour, et même si je savais qu’il ne voulait faire que ça, je ne l’aurais jamais cru. »

  •  

https://www.ouest-france.fr/vendee-globe/arrivee-du-vendee-globe-sur-l-eau-ce-n-etait-plus-le-meme-confie-l-ami-de-charlie-dalin-7133023

(paywall)

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Both Boris and Charlie should jibe in order to better controll opponents. Surely they have to keep an eye on fortunate wind shifts near the coast, but I would play it cool and safe. JMC at 18 knots - unbelievable!!             

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As a guy who normally sails a 4ksb around the cans in a PHRF fleet, it's weird that the thing I can most relate to about these guys right now is all the mental arithmetic you do coming up the line.

"Let's see... Joe's over there, but he owes me time, but I owe Fred time, so he might have me beat..." [repeatedly glances at watch]

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21 minutes ago, Haji said:

Boris should be gybing soon...by the next update @ 1530?

17:30 FR (16:30 UTC) is the usual poll time which comes out at 17:00 UTC (Sorry if this in not what you are asking. I'm at -6 UTC and get easily confused flipping back and forth between three zones on three trackers ;) )

His dashboard show the beginning of a gybe now (not bad--10 minutes to get back up to speed)

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2 minutes ago, stief said:

17:30 FR (16:30 UTC) is the usual poll time which comes out at 17:00 UTC (Sorry if this in not what you are asking. I'm at -6 UTC and get easily confused flipping back and forth between three zones on three trackers ;) )

His dashboard show the beginning of a gybe now

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeesss! Go Boris Go!

image.png.c3d6935a54152bc291688f576f15c229.png

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14 minutes ago, suider said:

I think you are looking at his distance to Charlie, not his distance to finish? I'm pulling for him, but he's still outside the 200 mile zone, right?

And the distances don't add up with the different reporting intervals.  Right now the tracker has Yannick 189 miles from Dalin, and 318 from the finish.  But Dalin is showing only 80 miles from the finish.  So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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4 minutes ago, Corryvreckan said:

And the distances don't add up with the different reporting intervals.  Right now the tracker has Yannick 189 miles from Dalin, and 318 from the finish.  But Dalin is showing only 80 miles from the finish.  So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah, these differing reporting intervals are confusing at best... I liked the idea floated earlier of the first in that zone triggers a larger zone of reporting times...

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30 minutes ago, suider said:

I think you are looking at his distance to Charlie, not his distance to finish? I'm pulling for him, but he's still outside the 200 mile zone, right?

My FUCK-UP !!!

I need more coffee.

So my mis-constructed over simplified calculation just shows that if everything stays equal, he is arriving at the same time than Charlie... Even closer finish than I imagined...

 

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3 hours ago, Herman said:

It's a pity that the VG organisation seems to be reading this thread and all SAT-AIS data for the IMOCA boats is no longer available. Not at Marinetraffic, also not at vesselfinder. 

I think the thread jumped by 10K views in the last few hours, so imagine Marine Traffic and Vessel Finder took a huge hit too.

(and bravely done putting out a projection when the details are changing so fast. Even the media pros have been hedging madly the last few days ;) )

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20 hours ago, Laurent said:

 

Yes, it is fairly common for the newer boats to be sold right after the event for the next edition.

In some cases, they are even sold before the finish! I believe it was the case for the last edition winner, Banque Populaire VIII skippered by Armel Le Cléac'h, who sold his boat to Louis Burton even before the race...

I wonder if L’Occitaine is the smart buy. Seems to have been durable, quite quick, and because it's not one of the leaders one could possibly get it cheap...

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4 minutes ago, Laurent said:

My FUCK-UP !!!

I need more coffee.

So my mis-constructed over simplified calculation just shows that if everything stays equal, he is arriving at the same time than Charlie... Even closer finish than I imagined...

 

but distance to leader should be smaller than indicated in the tracker because leader has to gybe thus having more to sail than the crow flies and bestaven goes straight forward to the finish as the crow would fly(:

so if he keeps his performance, then he could win, but not "now"

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2 minutes ago, steinbrenner said:

but distance to leader should be smaller than indicated in the tracker because leader has to gybe thus having more to sail than the crow flies and bestaven goes straight forward to the finish as the crow would fly(:

so if he keeps his performance, then he could win, but not "now"

Do you mean I fucked up the recovery of my fuck up?

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1 minute ago, Laurent said:

Do you mean I fucked up the recovery of my fuck up?

 

Just now, Corryvreckan said:

It means that's just the kind of morning this had been.

Pffft. Not as bad as Bernie's morning (blame the Northern Canadians)

IMG_3849.thumb.JPG.d74114203225ff3d7e897d04b126a64f.JPG

 

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I know all the routing shown here has really enhanced the race (thank you all) and even working and displaying the numbers it is still a nail biter, but...

 

It's also fun to look at the players and just made a good guess at the end game without a program.  It looks like the top three still have one more gybe while the next two have a straight in shot on a freshening breeze.  Not enough to physically pass but does make yannick's finish tight if Boris blows the gybe.

I'm loving JLC's track and I like to wax poetic that he's going to ride that storm hard into the finish and gain more then the numbers may say.  He has shown to be a crafty and lucky sailor racing in an older boat.

I loved Pip's comments in her video about the top finishers and her own efforts to stay "in the race".  Till she hit her bumps in the road she was holding her own even against foilers.  It is still a long race for her and maybe she can gain some ground again.   

This has been a fantastic race this time around and my congratulations to not just the podium and top 10, but to all those who finish.

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4 minutes ago, Herman said:

Interesting, only when I log in anonymously with another browser I can see that tweet and account. 

I've had that problem on the iPad. Seems to be a cache issue, because it's not consistent.

Also, finish line adjustment is official:

Quote

SI 9.1 Finishing line is modified as follows

The finishing line will be a straight-line true bearing of 00°, and
-Marked to the north by the Nouch South buoy at 46°28’60 N and 001°47’40 W 
to be left on port

-Marked to the south by the point whose coordinates are 46°26, 60 N ; 001°47, 40 W to be left on starboard

The committee boat will be moored stand at the southern end of the line.

In the event of the committee boat being absent, competitors must pass north of the most southerly point of the finishing line. In this case, the reporting will be done from Fort Saint Nicolas ashore.

In the event of bad weather, with the race committee’s agreement, race management may alter the position of the southern extremity of the finishing line 24 hours before the ETA.

January 26th at 10h40 (Paris Time)

 

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43 minutes ago, cortosam said:

Thx for all your posts that keep us updated on this fantastic finish !

Ditto. Maddeningly, can't break away from secondary stuff like -- work to observe it real-time. Will have to relive vicariously by reading all the great contributions here...

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43 minutes ago, Der_Dude said:

if you set Boris' dashboard on 5 or 10 sec refresh intervals you can see him trimming in in real time. This is unfuckingbelievable.

Boris' dashboard should be compulsory for all yachts in the next edition.

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If I calculate DTF / boat speed = 45 / 18 = 2,5 hrs racing remaining for Dalin. ETA +/- 19:45 - if the wind stays up

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9 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

Unbelievable. National Public Radio has a an article on the Vendée Globe this morning!

Seems the newspapers get wind of the VG every four years about this point in the race.  I would often get someone showing it to me saying "here, check this out".  And when I'd start to fill in some backstory for them (like say, Riou rescuing LeCam in 2008 or 2012), their eyes would usually glaze over.

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On the French Vendée Live daily broadcast, Yannick Bestaven explained that he lost half an hour last night.

The small dyneema line holding the rudder down broke; rudder goes up, boat crashes upwind; had to roll the genaker, replace the line, get back on track, unroll the genaker...

Anything can still happen..

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2 minutes ago, Laurent said:

On the French Vendée Live daily broadcast, Yannick Bestaven explained that he lost half an hour last night.

The small dyneema line holding the rudder down broke; rudder goes up, boat crashes upwind; had to roll the genaker, replace the line, get back on track, unroll the genaker...

Anything can still happen..

Merde! How he suffers, and yet still pushes. Think that just made him my favourite (no jinx, please!)

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10 minutes ago, stief said:

Merde! How he suffers, and yet still pushes. Think that just made him my favourite (no jinx, please!)

I hope he can add a First in VG to his First in Mini Transat. Yannick the real seaman racer.

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