Jump to content

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, LeoV said:
6 hours ago, Snowden said:

cranking it for two hours with water gushing into the seacock at 29 knots will do that

And maybe a few wipe outs will affect flow in all directions...

Jacko, sailing backwards, noted.

Kevin was charging his batts when "foldaboat" occured. That might be a more extreme version of hydrolock/fucked.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 13.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

":A 2h18 heure française, le team PRB a été informé du sauvetage de Kevin Escoffier par Jean Le Cam. " Kevin has been rescued.  

Give it a rest chaps. HB was another attempt at evolution, and they should be applauded for spending a fuck ton of money to do so. If you want to try and be innovative you run the risk of breakages al

VG sailors at sea in the rough A translation: JLC: Damien can you receive me ? DS: Yes Jean I can (garbled)... I don't think you're receiving me that well but I receive you very well. JL

Posted Images

9 hours ago, Laurent said:

Thanks Herman!

Am I reading your table right? Are you predicting 6 boats with 1 1/2 hrs at your virtual waypoint, at the corner of the ZEA, East of Cape Leeuwin??? That would be awesome for the interest of the race...

Indeed a nice get together at the AEZ is projected, but as usual the forecast will change as the situation is very dynamic with the highs and low coming in and out. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, samc99us said:

General opinion is that the AIS data is more accurate than the official tracker.  At Burton's average 4h speed of 13.9kts, 13.9*87/60 = 20.2 nm, hence 23nm seems reasonable no?

Some of the others are not of course, Dutreux for example would have to be going 36.92 kts to cover 24nm in 35min, maybe his position reports were confused with Sodebo :blink:

Indeed, by roughly calculating time delta's against location differences in NM you can guess certain outcomes are not valid. Simply, boats can't move that quickly in the timestamp delta to cover the location differences.

Disclaimer; unless the AIS-retrieved timestamps are not accurately enough harvested. But getting the Python script up and running is one thing, validating the script itself is entirely different, and beyond my scope. But I will do a second test on some boats in order to check AIS-accuracy, with live coverage from land instead of sat coverage.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, stief said:

Damian Foxall: of the 6 struck boats 2 had pingers. Very understanding of the efforts of the teams to mitigate the risks.

And very instructive and educational about the practical limitations of pingers, Oscar, etc. Damien answered a lot of questions that have been asked on this thread. He pointed out, in his opinion, the disingenuousness of the term UFO's; differentiating between a boat hitting eg fishing debris and sea life;  and his discussion about the efforts in process of other mitigation measures such as studying and avoiding known marine migration routes. . Thought his comment about the drawbacks of the ice gates given the upcoming weather forecasts was particularly interesting. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, littlechay said:

The hydrogenerator mounts really look shite, I was just commenting on one the other day to the guys fitting on to a boat that will be in a race in a couple of year. ... At least they are fuse to stop the generator ripping the back out of the boat! 

;)Oh, you are mentioning the „black boat“ being laid up in Ushuaia. Interesting to know...

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Miffy said:

W&S offers one that is feathering and hydraulically controlled - but the market isn’t really once every 4 year imocas. They probably sell as many on transquadra, mini scene in one season than all of imoca since inception. 

They're not all that popular amongst the Minis from what I've seen, partly because of the cost compared to fuel cells.

Link to post
Share on other sites

AIS validity check part deux

AIS positions check against the 08:30 schedule positions are all valid. Max timestamp differences for Burton is 54 minutes, with a max position delta of 7 nm in the right heading. All other AIS postions are smaller and look valid too. E.g. Dalin has a timestamp delta of 19 minutes, and a position delta of 5 nm in the right heading. He was doing 16 kts so 5/16 = 1/3 hr = 20 minutes is very, very accurate compared to the timestamp delta (+/-  1 minute). The vector towards the AIS-position is 100% accurate.

No idea why last night the results were not valid at all.

 

AIS positions 081220 0900.png

Positions 0830 schedule vs AIS 08 12 20.png

Dalin 081220.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather update

Routing with approximately 09:30 AIS-retrieved positions for the top-8 boats. So Dalin opted out for now for a more northern routing to avoid possible bad weather /seastate. Otherwise, he would have gone north of Amsterdam Island and St Paul Island. Ruyant seems to be heading above Amsterdam Island atm.

Pics 1 and 2 give the overall situation for ECMWF and visible EUMETSAT clouds. Clearly Dalin and Ruyant are caught now too by the LP zone, which deepens and intensifies quickly, but luckily veers SE out of the way when it evolves into a full storm.

Both wave models ECMWF WAM and Wavewatch 3 (WW3) do more or less agree on the sea state, but not on a small scale. It's not fun out there as reported by Sorel earlier on the radio. He should be in 5,5 meter waves. See pics 3 and 4. 

Dalin could get up to 40 kts steady winds, and gusts in the 50s kts as predicted yesterday. Rough ride. But further in the week easier sailing, around Thursday. The projected AWA for the passing LP zone is nice for Dalin, 110 degrees or so.

Still 5 boats projected at almost the same time for ETA. Bestaven looks good for maintaining his third position. See routing table pic 5.

And pics 6 to 9 for routing Dalin, Ruyant, Burton and Le Cam.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECMWF 081220.jpg

EUMETSAT 081220.jpg

ECMWF WAM 081220.jpg

Waves WW3 081220.jpg

routing table 081220.png

Dalin 081220.png.jpg

Ruyant 081220.png

JLC 081220.png.jpg

Burton 081220.png.jpg

Edited by Herman
wrong pics
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Manfred said:

;)Oh, you are mentioning the „black boat“ being laid up in Ushuaia. Interesting to know...

Nope .. one that is being prepped.... its white ;) nowhere near Ush

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

AFAIK not posted up thread the very funny tweet by Philippe Eliès regarding Escoffier, swimming once again in his survival suit to the RHIB of the French frigate; "Bisous ma caille et merci Jean !" Or in English; "Kisses to my little bird (quail) and thank you Jean!" Is he referring to the hair of JLC which could be home to a quail?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Herman said:

AFAIK not posted up thread the very funny tweet by Philippe Eliès regarding Escoffier, swimming once again in his survival suit to the RHIB of the French frigate; "Bisous ma caille et merci Jean !" Or in English; "Kisses to my little bird (quail) and thank you Jean!" Is he referring to the hair of JLC which could be home to a quail?

 

 

"Bisous ma caille" could be translated into "Kisses sweetie"

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

News from Armel Tripon, i love the spirit of this guy, seems as positive as a buddhist Monk, no negative energy at all

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/fr/actualites/20887/armel-tripon-ce-sont-des-moments-de-grace-inouis

"I am alone in the middle of the Indian Ocean under a big blue sky. I think it's good to go south of the depression because I have the boat in the right shape to do it. The "timings" are good so you have to take advantage of them. I whipped last night to go fast, now it's going to soften a bit, but I'm going to move forward anyway. It's always nice to put some distance with the boats behind and regain some on those in front. The good thing is that I will manage to catch the front of the depression in front of me and thus be able to cross part of the Indian fairly quickly. 

 

I'm a bit tired, I manoeuvred a lot last night, there were a lot of sail changes because the wind is very unstable, and then the nights are short, at 1h30 or 2h, it's already daylight. It's quite unsettling so there is little sleep.

 

After a month at sea, I feel a fullness with the boat and the environment. Physically and mentally, I feel very well and I love spending days and nights on this racing boat, trying to go as fast as possible and find the best trajectories. It's a lot of things you feel and it's strong. Last night, I had never seen such a starry night. It was incredibly pure, there wasn't an ounce of pollution, the stars shimmered like never before, it was magical. These were moments of unbelievable grace.

 

My boat is a good travel companion, I get along well with it. I am careful because the road is still long and I don't know him very well yet, but when the conditions allow it, I can shoot it and it responds well. He is fluid, easy and he just wants to go fast so it's nice to try to understand him. 

 

The strategy is done, it is to go under this depression, to try to catch the front and to ride in front of the front to reach Cape Leeuwin. If the scenario remains the same, I should stay ahead of this front on the edge of the high. It's quite a dream situation, I'm really lucky"

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, eastern motors said:

How far behind was Tripon when he "restarted" racing?

I believe Beyou has lost 800+nm to the leaders since restarting.

I don't think he was that far behind, but was the other side of the front, and then go caught in the light airs that slwed the back markers so significantly.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cortosam said:

Tripon ... The strategy is done, it is to go under this depression, to try to catch the front and to ride in front of the front to reach Cape Leeuwin. If the scenario remains the same, I should stay ahead of this front on the edge of the high. It's quite a dream situation, I'm really lucky"

the group behind him are sailing NW upwind in light winds... bet he is glad to have avoided that!

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Potter said:

I don't think he was that far behind, but was the other side of the front, and then go caught in the light airs that slwed the back markers so significantly.

interesting that in light airs the scow was still faster.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, samc99us said:

General opinion is that the AIS data is more accurate than the official tracker. 

Current deltas for the fleet (nm), between updates, error distance from the predicted position:

image.thumb.png.120b443cb47c289474b38e87dc44b5f2.png

Seems pretty accurate.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Snowden said:

Boris seems to have found some pace again. Wonder if he has now fixed his J2 / hydros?

Indeed. Dutreux, Herrmann and Ruyant in high gear @ 19-20 kts now the cold front has passed. Dalin in rough wind (30+ kts) and windgusts up to 46-48 kts, with probably a double or triple reefed mainsail, @ 10 kts.

Skipper CET Latitude Longitude Heading Speed
DALIN 14:57:00 -39.4406 80.3879 150° 9.8
RUYANT 15:01:00 -37.8106 75.4732 96° 19.3
LE CAM 15:00:00 -39.0684 69.2769 105° 10.5
DUTREUX 14:42:00 -40.9285 68.9775 115° 20.2
SEGUIN 14:54:00 -40.8172 67.5650 77° 12.3
BURTON 13:36:00 -44.2630 68.1604 95° 10.1
BESTAVEN 14:52:00 -40.9873 70.6518 111° 14.6
HERRMANN 14:54:00 -40.4596 68.1050 84° 19.0
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Dalin and Burton are up-to-speed again 

DALIN:  -39.5162 LON:   80.4936, SPEED: 17.2, HEADING:  88°, TIME: 2020-12-08 15:35:00

BURTON: -44.2202 LON:   68.8534, SPEED: 19.9, HEADING:  58°, TIME: 2020-12-08 15:30:00

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Herman said:

AFAIK not posted up thread the very funny tweet by Philippe Eliès regarding Escoffier, swimming once again in his survival suit to the RHIB of the French frigate; "Bisous ma caille et merci Jean !" Or in English; "Kisses to my little bird (quail) and thank you Jean!" Is he referring to the hair of JLC which could be home to a quail?

 

 

"My caille" which is indeed a quail is sweet talk in French for your lover... In English, you would say "honey" for example...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Gripping story from Pip Hare. The lady sure knows how to write!

                                    

Pip Hare 'Fear Cannot Take Control.'

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/20886/pip-hare-fear-cannot-take-control

At 2am, in the pitch dark with no moon and building breeze the tack line on my code zero broke. It went with a loud bang ...

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, eastern motors said:

How far behind was Tripon when he "restarted" racing?

I believe Beyou has lost 800+nm to the leaders since restarting.

I recall Armel saying he expected to be 1000nm behind by the time he reached the equator, but he was not so fortunate. Turned out being over 2000nm.

20201208_075834.thumb.jpg.255893fb9bd043859c3ae30adc517daf.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Virgulino Ferreira said:

Gripping story from Pip Hare. The lady sure knows how to write!

                                    

Pip Hare 'Fear Cannot Take Control.'

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/20886/pip-hare-fear-cannot-take-control

At 2am, in the pitch dark with no moon and building breeze the tack line on my code zero broke. It went with a loud bang ...

 

Thanks for the find.  her last paragraph really hit home for me.  I've not been content to just sit around waiting for life to happen.  In my years, besides the passion I have for sailing and where it took me, I learned to fly and get my PPL, and I learned to ride and jump horses.  Each of these activities has challenged me, scared me, and at times embedded fear in me that was/is hard to remove.  Yet, I continue, despite the fear because the the joy I feel when I am engaged helps put the fear back in a corner.
-------------------
I know well that icy grip of fear and how it has the ability to paralyse you and to turn your brain in circles. But when you are alone on a boat in the middle of the ocean there is simply no one else to take charge, the  fear cannot take control, it keeps you sharp but you must learn to suppress it. I don't consider myself to be a particularly brave person, I don't think this is a characteristic you are born with. I think my sport has taught me how to control my fear and think clearly in a crisis. I do this not because I enjoy the stress or want to be a hero, but because I love my sport, I am driven to compete at the highest level I can possibly achieve and with the euphoria of screaming through the worlds most beautiful oceans on a beautiful race boat, comes the acceptance that at times I will be challenged and I will be scared.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Snowden said:

Boris seems to have found some pace again. Wonder if he has now fixed his J2 / hydros?

His article this morning, he said he doesn't envision fixing it until he gets some calmer weather on Friday or so(!).  He seems to be happy enough with how things are going for now.

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/20884/boris-herrmann-reasons-to-be-cheerful-milestones-to-look-forward-to

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Virgulino Ferreira said:

Gripping story from Pip Hare. The lady sure knows how to write!

                                    

Pip Hare 'Fear Cannot Take Control.'

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/20886/pip-hare-fear-cannot-take-control

At 2am, in the pitch dark with no moon and building breeze the tack line on my code zero broke. It went with a loud bang ...

 

She made a nice video about replacing her tack line.  Doesn't seem to show up on the VG site.  Looks like the weather co-operated. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, DVV said:

I wander who is the pleasure craft you can see up on the right

Sodebo?!

Sodebo is

lat lon: -48.305510      45.716010      

spd hdg: 20.5    126 (down from 31.0 122 10 mins ago)

As of 2 minutes ago. I think thats not them.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TPG said:

Here's the only leading edge damage I could see on Seb's foil.

Screenshot_20201208-085533_Instagram.jpg

Hard to get exact scale in that but it looks like damage over a relatively large area with no localised damage from a hard/sharp object.

So I'd guess it was something large and relatively soft, like a big fish or whale...

I don't think containers, fishing lines of logs would leave damage like that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, despacio avenue said:

marine migration routes

Still looking if those migration routes might be in a Windy plugin. Could explain some seemingly odd choices the fleet makes.

The race organizers plan and know about the routes. Dee discussed those routes (and the migration routes of other jetsam and flotsam), a few days ago with Conrad Humphreys, so the routes are somewhat known.

Haven't noticed the sailors themselves talking how much they factor this into their routes. Obviously, more than I expected.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, cortosam said:

News from Armel Tripon, i love the spirit of this guy, seems as positive as a buddhist Monk, no negative energy at all

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/fr/actualites/20887/armel-tripon-ce-sont-des-moments-de-grace-inouis

This guy has a very good head for this race his first VG and into IMOCA only just before last edition. .

Diverting to Spain to fix his J3 lock didn't faze him. 

His history a good clue. Some good mini results but also a lot of modest ones in Figaro, then class 40 and good multi results but that only very recent. Hard work more than gifted??

His sponsor must have very good eye for someone different from a lot knocking on doors sponsor looking. Groupe L'Occitane pioneer in natural cosmetics, now global and enough money for a bespoke boat. A very French relationship skipper and sponsor.  

This vid from 6 years ago.  

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

His sponsor must have very good eye for someone different from a lot knocking on doors sponsor looking. Groupe L'Occitane pioneer in natural cosmetics, now global and enough money for a bespoke boat. A very French relationship skipper and sponsor.  

Armel Tripon managed to get Manuard & Black Pepper Yachts to do the work for the project before he signed on L'Occitane. Amongst the new boats, I don't think anyone has had such a tough financial time as Tripon and Thomas Ruyant re getting the boat to the start line. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Corryvreckan said:

His article this morning, he said he doesn't envision fixing it until he gets some calmer weather on Friday or so(!).  He seems to be happy enough with how things are going for now.

https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/20884/boris-herrmann-reasons-to-be-cheerful-milestones-to-look-forward-to

Thanks--Had assumed all the nav programs automatically handle dateline issues that plague trackers.  "After that I will close my navigation program and restart it in anti meridian view."

Might explain that the tracking error crossing the equator originated in his onboard software, not the dashboard.

Link to post
Share on other sites

JLC seem to be loosing some way to the boats below him. I guess that - as he said in an interview posted here - he is easing a bit until he can make a proper check at the boat.

More difficult conditions for YesWeCam then those souther

And very though condition for Ruyan!!! 

Schermata 2020-12-08 alle 19.57.17.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stief said:

Still looking if those migration routes might be in a Windy plugin. Could explain some seemingly odd choices the fleet makes.

The race organizers plan and know about the routes. Dee discussed those routes (and the migration routes of other jetsam and flotsam), a few days ago with Conrad Humphreys, so the routes are somewhat known.

Haven't noticed the sailors themselves talking how much they factor this into their routes. Obviously, more than I expected.

Hmm note sure there are routes as such. But if you think of where the animals hang out in the winter and keep in mind that they head for Antarctica for the summer you could make some reasonably assumption on longitudes where you might expect them to be more abundant. For example Blue whales heading South from Tahiti area, Souther rights heading south from Cape of Good Hope etc...  I'll ask my other half if she can did something up as it broadly falls into her field :) 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, troll99 said:

7/12 am 8.00 and 8/12 pm 6. 
Other boats: "okay, Im giving up" :lol:
300 nm already in 30 hours to the previous boat (Roura).

..Not to mention he was 1,100 miles behind them at the equator. Fascinated by L’Occitane’s progress. I hope he manages to thread the needle with the weather along the top of the ice gate

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, littlechay said:

Hmm note sure there are routes as such. But if you think of where the animals hang out in the winter and keep in mind that they head for Antarctica for the summer you could make some reasonably assumption on longitudes where you might expect them to be more abundant. For example Blue whales heading South from Tahiti area, Souther rights heading south from Cape of Good Hope etc...  I'll ask my other half if she can did something up as it broadly falls into her field :)

Thanks Chay. Bouquets to the missus anyway.

Dee sounded like the issue was more than exaggerated bar talk, so wondered what you, zonker and the others who sail these areas thought. Just 'deal' (or shrug off)? I recall we just "accepted" the whales in the St Lawrence we'd see when racing to Prince Edward Island (one of the other PEIs) many years ago. Nothing we could do at night. No way were we going to hove to until daytime. :lol:

Do you run much differently when in such places? Extra watches? Bit more cautious?

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, OPAL said:

Seems to be a bit of a highway down there?

Link? Most of the maps I found so far are species specific. Dee mentions the stuff coming down the Agulhas current, the trees flowing out of river mouths, and the various migratory paths of the mammals.  The maps for Australia look pretty dense too. Damian Foxall mentioned the whales are tagged and tracked by satellites, but data is too delayed to be much use for the fast foilers. This looked interesting https://sharkresearch.rsmas.miami.edu/education/virtual-learning/tracking-sharks/

So, back down the rabbit hole. Something like Marine Traffic's shipping density maps that combined all of the above would be buried treasure. Right now finding lots of grains of sand.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

Does anyone know why 15th 16th 17th and 18th are heading north... Did I miss something....?

I had the same thought but roll the weather forward 24h and it makes more sense why they are getting separation from the ice zone and the centre of that L

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stief said:

Do you run much differently when in such places? Extra watches? Bit more cautious?

No not really.. But the boats I sail in those areas would not be hurt by a whale, rather the other way around. I suspect that until you are doing over 10 knots the whales will generally get out of the way, unless they are asleep when it is possible to run right over the top of them. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Snowden said:

I had the same thought but roll the weather forward 24h and it makes more sense why they are getting separation from the ice zone and the centre of that L

Edit: I read VMG as boatspeed, looks like they are doing 6kts in 10kts of forecast breeze which is somewhat reasonable. If you looked at the low VMG numbers you would think they were parked. No search patterns so that is a much-needed positive!

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, samc99us said:

At 3-4kts of boat speed? Doesn't make too much sense if they are the 10kts of forecast breeze. Plus 18th place is headed right for them.

19th is 160NM away and in completely different pressure and routing phase. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Least attrition this VG since 2004.

Quote

30 days elapsed since the departure of #VG2020 , the abandonment rate is 15% of the number of departing boats. This is quite reasonable, we have to go back to 2004 to find a lower rate of 10%.

details here; cred to Micih D for the find.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

Does anyone know why 15th 16th 17th and 18th are heading north... Did I miss something....?

If they go north now they will have a TWA of ~80degrees when it starts to get windy.  If they continued east then they would have a TWA of 50 or worse and being crunched against the ice limit when the wind comes.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Coconuts.is said:

If they go north now they will have a TWA of ~80degrees when it starts to get windy.  If they continued east then they would have a TWA of 50 or worse and being crunched against the ice limit when the wind comes.

 

much better explanation than mine^_^

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I was listening to the podcasts of tip and shaft and i was really impressed by how many french offshore sailors had something to do with the french sailing school Les Glénans at some point of their sailing carreer, Franck Cammas, Vincent Riou, Armel Tripon, Charles Caudrelier, Michel Desjoyeaux obviously.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites