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No way I'm going to PA. This was a top thread, now it's fucked. Thank you fucking idiots.

I was thinking for the last few days that  as a pro union lifelong Alliance voter I should respond to this post but turning on the radio this morning and hearing Mike Nesbitt made me decide to act.

Umm, that would be you.  1) You are fool (as is both evident and self-confessed) who thinks that brexit is a good idea.  2) You post nonsense that only reinforces this and believe that you a

Posted Images

On 2/21/2021 at 3:35 PM, Waynemarlow said:

Goose winged downwind.

 

On 2/22/2021 at 11:38 AM, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

 

A giddy goose.

image.png

Remember this little swap of ideas. Well Jack you and CuMS, having now found out the reason for the pretty little red sail, may well have to eat humble pie.

image.png.f1b222b74c0d71877a38ab363021955e.png

Well thought I might ask my mate who works in the boat yard on the River Deben where the Thames Barges are and blow me down, he asked one of the syndicate owners of one of the barges and back came the answer "its used for when going Goose Winged down wind". Its actually called a balancing sail, yes its used to counter the very heavy canvas sail to keep the barge upright more when going down wind, but thats not its main job. Its all to do with stopping the barge from trying to round up as the sail CE is way out to the side.

Now I would have thought you lead mine owners may well have experienced that very thing going DDW Goosewinged. Myself I can excuse as we are always on a reach ( well 95% of the time ) but you guys, are you you just arm chair sailors after all ? 

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This chart shows FR-GB freight market is returning to pre-Brexit 'normal' after Xmas/New Year disruption.

So the GB promised soft-touch appears to be working. Maybe shortages the motivation.

So EU exporters will be happy.

The other way not so good.

GB-FR reports on the number of empty lorries returning to FR continues meaning depressed volumes.Consistent with this.

Lloyds Loading List - Half of UK exporters reporting difficulties

Why no concern from EU importers?

I suspect they have simply got new supply sources within and outside EU.

Governments reaction.

Johnson shrugs shoulders: "It got me into number 10. Ha ha."

TIMCONSULT

Eu-_IqbXEAA1tVS.png

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Why do they have PMQ's if Johnson doesn't answer any questions?

Then when he does talk, its bullshit.

Said today that staying in the European Medicines Agency would have made the UK vaccine rollout "impossible". Wrong.

Still bound by EMA rules when the Covid vaccination programme began. Didn't matter, because EU legislation enacted into British law already allowed countries to temporarily authorise vaccines without waiting for approval from the EMA.

UK Government confirmed this in Nov press release last year as attached extract shows. Yet weeks later  Hancock tweets then Tory retweeters are saying rollout couldn't have been done if in EU.

Other extract is interview with former head of the UK's Vaccines Taskforce, Kate Bingham, also shooting down Johnsons shit that Brexit helped.

Yet he and his Ministers get away with these lies week after week.

Rapidly coming to the conclusion that UK houses the most compliant bunch of fools on earth.

Fact Check

EvAP-rkWQAQSSsl.png

EvAQV5SXUAAF8t4.png

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More bullshit...Wednesday must be bullshitting day.

Treasury secretary Steve Barclay tells the Guardian it is possible that more than 10 freeports could be created if the "quality" is there in the bids.

Says freeports will be "drivers of regeneration and help levelling up".

So how are they are going to be different to the  7 freeports the UK had for 28 years, one of which was an airport?

How many countries bother with freeports anymore?

These people actually believe their own bullshit.

Eu_6NHUXEAAZB8Q.png

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1 hour ago, cms said:

Boris Johnson 'a liar' who will blame Brexit costs on Covid, says diplomat | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

Excellent article and sounds like a book worth reading. She has Boris down to a tee.

Sub is "Sylvie Bermann, former French ambassador, puts PM’s handling of pandemic alongside Donald Trump’s"

The numbers support that, both have deaths 6 times their March forecasts but UK's far worse per capita, like world #1 worse. 

I wouldn't trust Treasury but so far the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) as a non-departmental public body (funded by the UK Treasury) looks to be reasonably straight shooters.

The time period of Brexit and Covid expediture overlap but not by too much and Brexit impacts on Govt revenue don't start to bite until now.

So hopefully he can't bury too much.

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On 2/23/2021 at 9:43 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Across another excellent piece. Just to the above piece.

First the sovereign border hasn't changed since 1921. The customs border has.

The first time set in train by the 1985 Irish Anglo Agreement (opposed to by the DUP) and put in place by the introduction of the single market in 1992 (supported largely by the DUP, except smugglers :D). This effectively moved a light customs border to the Irish Sea for some checks.

This predated the GFA (which the DUP opposed) by 6 years.

Today with Brexit that soft customs border in the Irish Sea has gone hard, but mitigated by the Ireland Protocol (that the DUP oppose).

The only place the customs border can go is back to the 1992 hard north south border if the DUP got their way.

That is an impossible impasse with no solution.

You are right to say that to accord with the GFA, "Northern Ireland shall remain wholly  a part of the United Kingdom until a majority decide otherwise". in effect any Brexit without the UK being in the EU SM collides with the GFA.

You correctly say; "The Irish Sea border effectively  changes the constitutional position of Northern Ireland  and was implemented without the consent of the people,."

A hypothetical. What if with the leverage the DUP enjoyed between the 2017 and 2019 election they insisted that a border poll be conducted as per the GFA BEFORE Brexit could go the distance?

Question is whether Sinn Fein would have supported that? My guess not as the result would be too close.

If not the DUP, if May had insisted upon it?

An interesting thought. It solves this issue you highlight.

However the outcome if reunification did not occur is no different to today is it not?

 

Quote

 

 

An interesting hypothetical Jack! Had a border poll been held during 2017 – 2019 then Unionism would almost certainly have won. It would have also put Sinn Fein in a tricky situation as their whole identity and strategy is based around a border poll. Loosing would put them in a very bad situation with regards to their constituency and potentially embolden dissident Republicans so ironically it would probably not have been in their strategic interests. Would they have lost too much face in opposing a border poll, though? It could have been a shrewd move by the DUP however, for reasons best known to themselves, they decided that the Union was safest with Boris and the ERG so here we are…..

 

Would a unity referendum have solved the present situation….not sure. If unity was defeated then yes, it would reaffirmed Northern Ireland’s place in the Union but to me the question about where the customs border would go would have remained.  To my mind an NI specific referendum on any Brexit deal  would still have been needed.  To be honest, though, my head is still in a bit of a post-Covid vaccine mush so apologies if I’ve missed your point here!

 

To expand on that last point. I've been reflecting on things today and I suppose an argument could be made that one way to solve the current problem would be to hold a referendum on both the question of unity and the customs border. Get a bit of certainty around both questions. My fear though is that a unity referendum would cause huge damage to an already fractured civic society here and is the last thing we currently need.

 

As things stand Irish unity depends on the middle ground – Alliance voters and soft Unionists. Brexit has undoubtedly changed the dynamics and pushed many further away from the mainland UK. In saying that I am very aware that there are lots of people on the mainland who would happily push us away even more quickly! The concept of a modern, progressive union of four nations is still valid but Brexit has brought a style of English nationalism to the surface that is hard for a Celt or Ulster-Scot to find common ground with. The likelihood of Scotland going its own way also changes the dynamics totally. 

 

So whilst there are plenty of push factors there still aren’t a huge number of pull factors for the pro-British community when thinking about unity. If you are going to vote to join another country then you want to have a sense that your history and identity and beliefs would be valued in any new entity. I don’t get any sense yet that this would be the case in a united Ireland. In many ways this is understandable as the whole identity of the Republic is based upon a rejection of Britishness. Why would they substantially change their beliefs to incorporate a bunch of grumpy northerners?

 

Another problem with a border poll being called within the next few years is that the campaigns by both sides would be brutal. You can imagine what a DUP led campaign would be like. They have consistently failed to build a positive vision of Unionism and would rather burn bridges than build them.  Unfortunately that is also reflected in Sinn Fein’s increasingly sledgehammer style of diplomacy. Using words like ‘criminal’ or ‘illegitimate’ or ‘illegal’ to describe the concept of Northern Ireland (as they did during Brexit) doesn’t exactly make people in the other community feel valued. The upcoming centenary of Northern Ireland is only going to increase this style of rhetoric and make the divisions even bigger, I fear.

 

Jack – you mentioned a while ago about Sinn Fein needing to walk the walk and to me that’s absolutely right. They need to be upfront and say whether they want to unite the people or simply unite the territory. If they want to unite the people then constantly denigrating the pro-British identity and essentially saying it has no place in mainstream Irish society is not a way to win hearts and minds. If Northern Ireland fails then one major reason will be the failure of political Unionism to ever properly acknowledge and embrace the 32 county Irish identity. Create a kind of hybrid identity. My fear is that on current evidence nationalism risks doing exactly the same thing and it would be very sad to see history repeating itself in this way. Needless to say political  Unionism needs to finally walk the walk as well.

 

So all in all a unity referendum campaign would generate a huge amount of ill feeling between the communities. How could we possibly have an effective government in the event of a poll where the unity side lost? As such I think it can only be called as per the GFA, when it is clear that the pro-Unity would win. I think we are some way off that point.

 

I've rambled on again so best get back to Brexit. If a unity referendum is unrealistic and an Irish Sea referendum unlikely then it's hard to see what is going to happen. I imagine there will be some minor changes to the protocol then Boris will get sick of us (again) and throw us under the bus (again), leaving the DUP isolated (again). I can't begin to imagine how sick of us everyone must be........

Edited by Across the Pond
Being pedantic
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Well this one from left field.

The 'au pair' industry is finished due to no Visas PLUS not mentioned in letter no Erasmus.

Home Office has even shut down any future enquiries.

Which begs the question who is now going to look after Tory MP's and the elites kids?

Robots??

I have this image of Rees Mogg banging a robot called Helga. 

Actually to be serious 'au pairs' are not the domain of the well off and enables many couples or single parents to work  

 

au pairs.jpg

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

^^^^^^ EXCELLENT..... from the coal face.

Also it makes my long posts look short :lol:

 

He's got nothin'...

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:
9 hours ago, cms said:

Boris Johnson 'a liar' who will blame Brexit costs on Covid, says diplomat | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

Excellent article and sounds like a book worth reading. She has Boris down to a tee.

.......I wouldn't trust Treasury but so far the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) as a non-departmental public body (funded by the UK Treasury) looks to be reasonably straight shooters.

Dug this up from late November based on OBR Report to Parliament, noting it predated vaccine rollout bring forward but also assumed a smooth deal. I think their next report is due at the end of next month?

No-deal Brexit is the UK’s biggest economic threat, not Covid

 "This week, the OBR has confirmed its view that the long-term, permanent drag on the UK economy, compared with continued EU membership, will be 4 per cent of gross domestic product, assuming that the negotiations go well and the substantial, practical changes involved in ending the transition period go smoothly.

To put that in context, the economic hit is more than the OBR’s estimate of the long-term damage caused by Covid-19."
 

 

 

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Does a handful of news items exist, that better describes the outcome?

Johnson calls for people to eat British fish, UK fisherman is moving to the EU to fish, UK government to offer loans to encourage overseas buyers of British goods and Brexit voting Sunderland complains the UK Govt is not funding it like the  EU did.

Also anyone spot some 350m quid a week Red Bus savings there?

 

A fish 2.jpg

A. Fish.jpg

C Loan.jpg

B. Sunderland.jpg

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Here's a thought, if Scotland leaves the UK, who does NI go with? Ulster was "planted" mostly with Scots and the NI protestants are traditionally Known as "Ulster Scots". 

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7 hours ago, Across the Pond said:

 

 

An interesting hypothetical Jack! Had a border poll been held during 2017 – 2019 then Unionism would almost certainly have won. It would have also put Sinn Fein in a tricky situation as their whole identity and strategy is based around a border poll. Loosing would put them in a very bad situation with regards to their constituency and potentially embolden dissident Republicans so ironically it would probably not have been in their strategic interests. Would they have lost too much face in opposing a border poll, though? It could have been a shrewd move by the DUP however, for reasons best known to themselves, they decided that the Union was safest with Boris and the ERG so here we are…..

 

Would a unity referendum have solved the present situation….not sure. If unity was defeated then yes, it would reaffirmed Northern Ireland’s place in the Union but to me the question about where the customs border would go would have remained.  To my mind an NI specific referendum on any Brexit deal  would still have been needed.  To be honest, though, my head is still in a bit of a post-Covid vaccine mush so apologies if I’ve missed your point here!

 

To expand on that last point. I've been reflecting on things today and I suppose an argument could be made that one way to solve the current problem would be to hold a referendum on both the question of unity and the customs border. Get a bit of certainty around both questions. My fear though is that a unity referendum would cause huge damage to an already fractured civic society here and is the last thing we currently need.

 

As things stand Irish unity depends on the middle ground – Alliance voters and soft Unionists. Brexit has undoubtedly changed the dynamics and pushed many further away from the mainland UK. In saying that I am very aware that there are lots of people on the mainland who would happily push us away even more quickly! The concept of a modern, progressive union of four nations is still valid but Brexit has brought a style of English nationalism to the surface that is hard for a Celt or Ulster-Scot to find common ground with. The likelihood of Scotland going its own way also changes the dynamics totally. 

 

So whilst there are plenty of push factors there still aren’t a huge number of pull factors for the pro-British community when thinking about unity. If you are going to vote to join another country then you want to have a sense that your history and identity and beliefs would be valued in any new entity. I don’t get any sense yet that this would be the case in a united Ireland. In many ways this is understandable as the whole identity of the Republic is based upon a rejection of Britishness. Why would they substantially change their beliefs to incorporate a bunch of grumpy northerners?

 

Another problem with a border poll being called within the next few years is that the campaigns by both sides would be brutal. You can imagine what a DUP led campaign would be like. They have consistently failed to build a positive vision of Unionism and would rather burn bridges than build them.  Unfortunately that is also reflected in Sinn Fein’s increasingly sledgehammer style of diplomacy. Using words like ‘criminal’ or ‘illegitimate’ or ‘illegal’ to describe the concept of Northern Ireland (as they did during Brexit) doesn’t exactly make people in the other community feel valued. The upcoming centenary of Northern Ireland is only going to increase this style of rhetoric and make the divisions even bigger, I fear.

 

Jack – you mentioned a while ago about Sinn Fein needing to walk the walk and to me that’s absolutely right. They need to be upfront and say whether they want to unite the people or simply unite the territory. If they want to unite the people then constantly denigrating the pro-British identity and essentially saying it has no place in mainstream Irish society is not a way to win hearts and minds. If Northern Ireland fails then one major reason will be the failure of political Unionism to ever properly acknowledge and embrace the 32 county Irish identity. Create a kind of hybrid identity. My fear is that on current evidence nationalism risks doing exactly the same thing and it would be very sad to see history repeating itself in this way. Needless to say political  Unionism needs to finally walk the walk as well.

 

So all in all a unity referendum campaign would generate a huge amount of ill feeling between the communities. How could we possibly have an effective government in the event of a poll where the unity side lost? As such I think it can only be called as per the GFA, when it is clear that the pro-Unity would win. I think we are some way off that point.

 

I've rambled on again so best get back to Brexit. If a unity referendum is unrealistic and an Irish Sea referendum unlikely then it's hard to see what is going to happen. I imagine there will be some minor changes to the protocol then Boris will get sick of us (again) and throw us under the bus (again), leaving the DUP isolated (again). I can't begin to imagine how sick of us everyone must be........

Look, Pal, I don’t know who you think you are but your post count indicates that you might be new around here so let me give you one of the basic rules of this place:

You can’t just come on here with well-reasoned and articulated considerations, apparently based on some fancy first-hand knowledge and, and, and, just, well, you know, get away with that sort of thing!

We have standards, you know.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Apologies not necessary.

Whyane is sitting down to have "fancy peas" tonight. :lol:

"Origin check Isle 3".

EvAqfp_WYAQ2D_u.jpeg

A French brand being given an anglicised name. Love the Pinguin, oops, penguin ....

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1 hour ago, The Q said:

Here's a thought, if Scotland leaves the UK, who does NI go with? Ulster was "planted" mostly with Scots and the NI protestants are traditionally Known as "Ulster Scots". 

The Orange Order alive in Scotland.

Many well to do Unionists have holiday homes there. (I recall Arlene Foster saying that was where she would go if Remain/border poll reunification got up?)

Place of enforced residence of some less than desirable Unionists.

However if BOTH Indy and a reunification border poll were to get up, where to next?

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On 1/20/2021 at 6:53 PM, cms said:

A large proportion of the English think that Scotland is part of England, that Scots are English and that Liz 1 is Liz 2 .... What you say!

Is that really true? 
I can't say I've met anyone who has. (In England) 

When I work outside of Europe I have to explain that we're actually 4 separate countries quite regularly.

And maybe I'm being slow, but I've never got this American 'Irish Roots' thing, if your ancestors left 200 years ago then you're American not Irish, by that same metric I could call myself a Viking. 

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9 minutes ago, MiddayGun said:

And maybe I'm being slow, but I've never got this American 'Irish Roots' thing, if your ancestors left 200 years ago then you're American not Irish, by that same metric I could call myself a Viking. 

Check out timing/number in this graph .... does explain it. Extended beyond the famine.

Then where they ended up in America. 

Source

emigration_1821_1920.gif

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Cheers Jack, I get the fact that their ancestors came from Ireland, but if you go back far enough then everyone with white skin came from Europe originally. 

Its the ones that start talking about feeling a 'special connection', or some other vague connection that make me switch off. 

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12 minutes ago, MiddayGun said:

Its the ones that start talking about feeling a 'special connection', or some other vague connection that make me switch off. 

Big generalisation but the US a nation of immigrants and it is principally the US this attaches to? Doesn't seem to happen in other Anglo countries with high immigration levels?? They tend to integrate quicker there?

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8 hours ago, Across the Pond said:

Would a unity referendum have solved the present situation….not sure. If unity was defeated then yes, it would reaffirmed Northern Ireland’s place in the Union but to me the question about where the customs border would go would have remained. 

To expand on that last point. I've been reflecting on things today and I suppose an argument could be made that one way to solve the current problem would be to hold a referendum on both the question of unity and the customs border........

I'm quoting only a short bit of your excellent post for brevity but responding to its entirety. I should state up front I am a complete outsider to this debate.

The intractability of the Irish consequences of Brexit seem in part to be a consequence of the divisive nature of the British-Irish history going back hundreds of years. Hence the difference between the Scottish and NI approach to the Union. From the outside it looks like Brexit has exposed existing fissures that the GFA combined with British EU membership had papered over, rather than addressed.

The problem seems to be that the geography of NI does not reflect its people. Would an option be to reduce the size of NI to the few unionist counties? Hold an NIrexit in NI, and counties could vote to stay in NI or join the Republic? I guess this would not fully satisfy the Republicans, but people would get what they voted for to a finer discretization?

The only other alternative seems to a fully independent and autonomous NI country, who could then choose to align themselves with whomever they vote for?

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29 minutes ago, MiddayGun said:

Its the ones that start talking about feeling a 'special connection', or some other vague connection that make me switch off. 

 

17 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Big generalisation but the US a nation of immigrants and it is principally the US this attaches to? Doesn't seem to happen in other Anglo countries with high immigration levels??

I think a big factor is why the emmigration occured in the first place. For people forced out through economic or literal genocide, the ties to their "stolen" home are a lot stronger than for those who left for other reasons.

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I don't think the UK has seen anything yet. Four years of a UK government sitting on its arse doing nothing and now the shit will start to fly over the next few years. What industries are left are moving out of the UK .  It doesn't look good. 

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19 minutes ago, hump101 said:

 

I think a big factor is why the emmigration occured in the first place. For people forced out through economic or literal genocide, the ties to their "stolen" home are a lot stronger than for those who left for other reasons.

200 years ago they may have left for economic reasons, I really don't see how that applies to people several generations removed living today. 
Talk of a genetic connection or ties just sound like a load of waffle to me, but I'm a pretty cynical person. 
 

40 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Big generalisation but the US a nation of immigrants and it is principally the US this attaches to? Doesn't seem to happen in other Anglo countries with high immigration levels?? They tend to integrate quicker there?

It might be that Jack, and its not everyone in the USA, I think its used mostly by people trying to cash in on some perceived virtue of their supposed 'ancestral race', I see it mostly about the Irish, but I heard some bloke not that long ago talking about how his British roots (from 3 decades ago) meant that he still 'truly resonated' with British culture. Yeah whatever you say pal. 

 

I was reading an article the other day about how Joe Biden might not want to constructively work with Britain because of his Irish heritage, but given how long he's been in the USA I've no idea how what would even factor. (And I don't believe it would influence him, I guess people are just looking for a story) 

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Just ordered some Musto stuff from wetsuitsoutlet.co.uk after I had found out that they have moved their warehouse to East Netherlands. Marketing and sales stayed in the UK, the rest moved.. Another Brexshit advantage for me, they are only 80km away from me now.... 

 

https://oostnl.nl/nl/nieuws/op-de-vlucht-voor-de-brexit-britse-watersportshop-steekt-over-naar-deventer

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26 minutes ago, MiddayGun said:

200 years ago they may have left for economic reasons, I really don't see how that applies to people several generations removed living today. 
Talk of a genetic connection or ties just sound like a load of waffle to me, but I'm a pretty cynical person. 

I don't think it is cynicism - I also do not understand why people feel the need to segregate themselves into self-identified exclusive groups, but for some reason they do, and nationalistic origins seems to be a favourite division.

I don't think it is perceived as genetic ties, so much as cultural. My experience with this is mostly middle eastern and north african, not north american, but I was surprised to find a mini Switzerland in Wisconsin, particularly as their stated Swiss identifiers are not ones I recognise in Switzerland now.

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Singapore on the Thames has sprung a leak.

EU engaged in ‘very serious escalation’ over UK financial services, says Bank of England governor 

"The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has accused the European Union of trying to poach business from the City of London in the wake of Brexit, labelling the bloc’s recent activity a “very serious escalation”

 

Isn't this a case of HTFU...and put those big boys pants on you wanted??

Best comment. "If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu".

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I can't believe this is still going on when the Shellfish Association early in the month said Eustice on the record had already admitted the Govt had screwed up.

What is it with this lying shit, its like a badge of honour?

 

 

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Eustace is lying in that piece when he says this trade is only between the UK and the EU. Morroco, Tunisia, and Turkey, amongst others, import live bivalves into the EU, and in total over 12% of all bivalves (live, frozen, and tinned) consumed in the EU are imported from outside the EU and UK.

Why should the UK get an exemption when Morroco had to make the required investment in purification systems before being allowed to import?

Here is a WHO paper from 2005 giving details of the requirements, so this is nothing new despite his protestations. Interestingly, the requirements for importation into the US are even more strict, with only four countries qualifying at that time.

Edit: Didn't want to give the impression this was his only lie, he lied several times, but just pointing out one that Cathy Newman did not challenge.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Big generalisation but the US a nation of immigrants and it is principally the US this attaches to? Doesn't seem to happen in other Anglo countries with high immigration levels?? They tend to integrate quicker there?

Maybe US immigrants hold onto their origin culture because, well, there ain't none in the US.  Blank slate once the pesky locals were removed.
 

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Quote of the week

"It seems despite Brexit being “done”, that the EU is gonna live rent free in the Brexiteers heads for some time yet"

Neale Richmond
TD for Finegael
Spokesman on European Affairs.

Daily Mail - Italy snubbed in its hour of need. France and Germany at each other's throats. Hungary and Austria turning to Russian and Chinese vaccines... the EU is tearing itself apart right before our eyes

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Brexit wonderwoman Liz Truss nears ANOTHER Brexit deal 

INTERNATIONAL Trade Secretary Liz Truss is closing in on a £17.5 billion trade deal with Australia, as negotiations get back underway.

2020 Aust/UK trade inclusive of EU sector agreements is around.............................................................£17.5 billion.

And Aust exports fish.

"Brexit wonderwoman". :lol:

YCMTSU

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From the coal face.   Brexshit Britain, don't you just love it!!

My (UK) prop-shaft CV coupling has still not managed to be reunited with its owner in the Canaries.

On 1st December that coupling would have been here in 2 days - repared in a week - and back on the boat in 2 days.  All for the princely sum of £160 quid (£80 each way).  

Time line & cost so far :

22nd Jan pick up from Canaries - Carriage cost now £130.

29th Delivered here + a bill for vat, import duties and handling/admin chargers to the tune of £190

The unit was sent up country repaired and back to us within a week.

11th February instructed shipper to pick up and re-export to the Canaries. £130.

26th February - today - I have just spoken with my client and it seems the box is stuck in Las Palmas Customs.   If he parts with £140 Euro "they may" release it to him.

 

And that is just for 1 lousy hunk of metal & rubber.  Not surprising the import/export business is down a bit on previous years.:mellow:

 

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7 hours ago, Laser1 said:

My (UK) prop-shaft CV coupling has still not managed to be reunited with its owner in the Canaries.

Is this right

Logistics Cost was £160.

NOW

2 X Shipping - ADD £50 each way = £260.

2 X Vat, import duties/handling/admin chargers ADD £60 each way = £120

Total now £380

Total Increase £220 (380 - 160) OR ADD 240%

This is BEFORE Spanish special colony taxing on return adding €120 less £60 expected.

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Sylvie Bermann again from the Guardian, she being French Ambassador to UK 2014-2017. Choice cuts....

“When you’ve admired a country for a long time, appreciated its humour, tolerance, courtesy, openness – of course it’s sad,” she says. “It also means, now, there’s no more jelly or Stilton in Marks & Spencer’s in Marché St Germain. And that’s Brexit, too.”

First and foremost, though, was the shock. “No one thought it would happen, not even the Brexiters,” Bermann says. “David Cameron told me several times there was no way he could lose – he just wanted to solve his problem with his Eurosceptics.”

At endless embassy lunches and receptions, she says, she was assured by all that “‘the British are pragmatic; we just won’t do this’. One very senior Brexiter told us: ‘We’re not leaving, and we’ll keep annoying you. Are you sure you want us to stay?’”

She spent a lot of time trying to talk to Brexiters, “and it was impossible – not to convince them, even, but simply to … discuss it with them. This really is an ideology. Brexit was a victory of passion over reality.”

The national narrative of a country never defeated, and uninvaded since 1066, had – according Bermann - created a “mad” and obsessive conviction among Brexit true believers that Britain had single-handedly won the second world war.

“Look, I did a lot to acknowledge the role of the British in the war,” she says. “I presented a lot of légions d’honneur to British veterans, and it was very moving. But at the same time, I’m sorry, the Americans and the Red Army did their bit.”

Bermann has few kind words for the role the prime minister, whom she met often during his time as mayor of London, played in the Brexit process. From the moment he started to campaign for Brexit, she says, his bad faith was evident.

“No one should be surprised he gets called a liar,” she says. “Just look at the side of that bus: a flagrant lie. But lying is no longer a sin. The views of someone with no competence are worth as much as those of an expert – as Michael Gove said.”

Bermann was all the more shocked by Johnson, she says, because the first time she met him, at a breakfast, he had given “a fine speech, about how Sparta, in ancient Greece, had vanished because it cut itself off, while Athens, open city, flourished”.

She had more time for Theresa May, whose “inflexibilities and mistakes” – including the red lines of Brexit means Brexit, leaving the EU’s single market and customs union – produced the hardest of hard departures but who “at least had an honest side”.

Bermann left London in 2017, but followed developments closely from her next – and final – diplomatic post in Moscow. “The deal that was finally arrived at is a deal in which Britain sacrificed everything to a mythical idea of sovereignty,” she says.

“I’m sorry, but France is sovereign. Germany is sovereign. When we decide to share our sovereignty, it is to reinforce our power in the world, because there are now two superpowers, the US and China. Absolute sovereignty simply does not exist.”

Global Britain is also a myth: “The UK has erected new barriers with its biggest partner. For the US, it’s no longer the bridge it was. With China, there are moral problems. India won’t play unless it gets visas. Who will Britain be global with?”

Meanwhile, Britain is now a third country, Bermann says, “which means frontiers, documents, declarations. It wanted to leave because of EU bureaucracy, but it has a mountain of new paperwork – and companies are already suffering.”

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Is this right

Yup.  It was a warranty job that has now cost us dear.  If that happens again I'll be looking to ship & repair within EU, if that is possible. Lesson learned.

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3 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Yup.  It was a warranty job that has now cost us dear.  If that happens again I'll be looking to ship & repair within EU, if that is possible. Lesson learned.

Currently setting up a French company for a UK sailmaker to deal with EU purchases, sales and working with EU partners. Thanks Boris....

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32 minutes ago, Laser1 said:
1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Is this right

Yup.  It was a warranty job that has now cost us dear.  If that happens again I'll be looking to ship & repair within EU, if that is possible. Lesson learned.

+ 240%.. that's insane...the stories like that are insane.

Apparently people in NI favour RoI packet chips made from RoI potatoes. Same brand different factories in both.

The UK sell potatoes to the RoI (that's right potatoes ) because people in RoI favour British fresh chips

Then an English retailer imports EU packet chips. He posted the additional cost per box so has now stopped importing them.

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24 minutes ago, cms said:

Currently setting up a French company for a UK sailmaker to deal with EU purchases, sales and working with EU partners. Thanks Boris....

I wish someone could track UK SME's doing exactly that. The number is probably eye watering.

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1 hour ago, cms said:

Bermann says. “David Cameron told me several times there was no way he could lose – he just wanted to solve his problem with his Eurosceptics.”

Will be on his tombstone.

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:43 AM, Black Sox said:

Look, Pal, I don’t know who you think you are but your post count indicates that you might be new around here so let me give you one of the basic rules of this place:

You can’t just come on here with well-reasoned and articulated considerations, apparently based on some fancy first-hand knowledge and, and, and, just, well, you know, get away with that sort of thing!

We have standards, you know.

Cheers mate! I've been lurking around here since early 2004 and have seen plenty of people come and go and plenty of changes on the site. Thought it about time I actually said something. Not to worry, though, I have a small amount of knowledge about a very limited area so anything I say on any topic other than Brexit will fit in with the usual standards. I'd hate to get a reputation for being articulate and well reasoned. That sort of thing gets you banned round here!

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On 2/25/2021 at 9:47 AM, hump101 said:

I'm quoting only a short bit of your excellent post for brevity but responding to its entirety. I should state up front I am a complete outsider to this debate.

The intractability of the Irish consequences of Brexit seem in part to be a consequence of the divisive nature of the British-Irish history going back hundreds of years. Hence the difference between the Scottish and NI approach to the Union. From the outside it looks like Brexit has exposed existing fissures that the GFA combined with British EU membership had papered over, rather than addressed.

The problem seems to be that the geography of NI does not reflect its people. Would an option be to reduce the size of NI to the few unionist counties? Hold an NIrexit in NI, and counties could vote to stay in NI or join the Republic? I guess this would not fully satisfy the Republicans, but people would get what they voted for to a finer discretization?

The only other alternative seems to a fully independent and autonomous NI country, who could then choose to align themselves with whomever they vote for?

Thanks for your comments. You may be a complete outsider but you summed the situation up very well.

 

It is an intractable situation and I think in many ways the best solution all round would have been if Northern Ireland never existed in the first place - and I say that as a someone from the Pro-UK community! However it is what it is and it's hard to see a solution that would suit everyone over here.

 

In terms of the GFA: The formation of Northern Ireland - in my opinion - was an act of temporary pragmatism that has lasted 100 years. The GFA itself is a supreme example of political pragmatism and you are absolutely right to say that EU membership papered over a lot of the cracks. It did away with the land border and any visible signs of difference between the two jurisdictions beyond road signs and road markings. Pre-Brexit Anglo-Irish relations were pretty good and we got a lot of financial support from the EU. For me the EU element was important as I am as much European as British and Irish. That identity cut across a lot of the traditional political divisions here - particularly amongst the younger generations. 

 

The fundamental problem here as you know is that we have two mutually incompatible identities - one that aligns itself to London and looks away from Dublin another that looks towards Dublin, ignores London and, at it's extreme end, doesn't actually believe that Northern Ireland has the right to exist. That is not a recipe for long term stability. Having said that there is much in common between the two communities and the GFA struck a good balance between them. Back in 1998 when the deal was announced I thought there would be some sort of a coming together and a new, hybrid identity taking in the best of both sides would develop. That didn't happen and the two communities - at a political level - have drifted ever further apart. That highlighted the big issue with the GFA - if something proves to be intractable then at some point you are going to have to go with one side and therefore alienate the other. With Brexit, given the strong resistance to the land border things were only going to go one way and the risk was always going to be that Unionists would end up isolated. Given the DUP's stupidity at backing a hard-Brexit and continuing failure to promote a positive version of Northern Ireland and develop progressive alliances - that risk became reality.

 

So - to get back to your question - where do we go? I don't think that the option of reducing NI to a few small Unionist counties is viable as it would be such a small entity that would be even more dependent on London handouts. I don't think there is a huge desire in London to keep bailing us out forever. There is also quite considerable minority communities in all the counties - Unionists in Fermanagh and Nationalists in Antrim as an example - so any small rump that was left would still have it's problems with identity and community cohesion.

 

To me the idea of an independent (within the EU) Northern Ireland - acting as a political, economic and cultural (non Boris) bridge between GB and Ireland, with an identify that fuses the positive sides of each community - has it's appeal. The problem, though, is that we are utterly incapable of governing ourselves. The Stormont assembly is a bye-word for inaction and incompetence. The politicians are completely unwilling to make unpopular decisions so they usually sweep any problems under the carpet, refuse to do anything and then demand more money from London. If they can't handle the limited devolved powers they have then God help us if they ever had to run an independent country. We also have no real industries or resources - the Civil Service is probably the main employer - so again we couldn't survive independently unless bailed out by Brussels. 

 

To me joint authority between London and Dublin is  probably the ultimate expression of the GFA and could potentially be a solution to this but I can't see that happening. I think if they can sort out the trade issues so that business runs pretty much as seamlessly as before then things will settle down and we'll find something else to argue about.

 

Not sure if that has answered your question but thanks for asking it!

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:56 AM, jack_sparrow said:

The Orange Order alive in Scotland.

Many well to do Unionists have holiday homes there. (I recall Arlene Foster saying that was where she would go if Remain/border poll reunification got up?)

Place of enforced residence of some less than desirable Unionists.

However if BOTH Indy and a reunification border poll were to get up, where to next?

As you know Jack the there are so many practical, cultural, sporting, economic and emotional links between the two countries. I was up on the east coast of Co Down with work a while back and could see houses on the Scottish shore - it's that close. I don't think that Scotland leaving the UK would make a huge difference to the situation over here, though. It would certainly add to the push factor away from what remained of the UK but there is still not a huge pull factor for Unionists towards Dublin. As such I would say that the majority would still look towards London and want to remain with the UK. Were there to be referendums in both countries within the next five years then I would expect Scotland to leave and Northern Ireland to stay in the UK. If Wales then decided to go then who knows what would happen!

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13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

The DUP petition to trigger article 16/scrap the NIP only collected so far.

142,092 votes across the entire planet.

Only 75k signees were from NI

OR

put.another way only 22.5% of NI Leave voters, just under 6% of eligible NI voters, and only 4.3% of all NI constituents.

Says it all.

IMG_20210226_204834.jpg

Two problems Jack:

1) The lack of an argument articulating a viable alternative.

2) The fact that it is led by the DUP would put off a lot of moderate people from supporting such a petition.

 

So somewhat doomed to failure....

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1 hour ago, Across the Pond said:

Two problems Jack:

1) The lack of an argument articulating a viable alternative.

2) The fact that it is led by the DUP would put off a lot of moderate people from supporting such a petition.

 

So somewhat doomed to failure....

Yes and the ONLY solution to BOTH making the Customs Border a land border & preserving the GFA is.......................

..... is staying IN the EU Single Market.

What did the DUP do?

- They campaigned locally leaving the EU and lost.

- Blew up May's original WA proposal (the EU put forward) having the border in the Irish Sea, then;

- Blew up Mays WA second proposal (their proposal and the EU reluctantly agreed) having a north-south/since 1921 border, then;

- Used that to help the Tory right get rid of May and give Johnson the keys to #10, where he put the border back in the Irish Sea, then;

- They voted for that WA AND the Ireland Protocol that put border in the Irish Sea and NI in TWO single markets the UK and EU to preserve the GFA, then;

- They voted for a HARD DEAL for trade in goods only that had the GB no different than any 'third country' save for no tarriffs subject to origin rules/quotas etc, then;

- Two weeks after commencement of that on 1 January now want to tear up the Ireland Protocol.

That then begs three questions.

1. Are they criminally insane or just plain insane?

2. Is it possible their objective has ONLY been about blowing up and or radically changing the GFA so they could go back to 1972 and rule Stormont alone?

3. Would reinstating capital punishment for say a week be supported in NI?

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1 hour ago, Across the Pond said:

It is an intractable situation and I think in many ways the best solution all round would have been if Northern Ireland never existed in the first place 

Both Michael Collins and Éamon de Valera shifted in their graves. :lol:

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Repeat of the same 2016 message, this time to Scotland voters.

In 2016 it was the large customer (the UK) who had leverage over the seller (the EU) and they, the EU would be forced to fold  aka German cars. However the seller won as the buyer had limited alternatives and the seller had other alternatives, internal and external.

Now its a repeat and where the sellers (Scotlands) alternatives are the EU direct as a member of EU single market. 

It's though these people think a large single market on your doorstep has no value, unless it is its own.

EvNhLvwXYAACevX.jpeg

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8 hours ago, Across the Pond said:

Not sure if that has answered your question but thanks for asking it!

It certainly did, thank you!

Your assessment makes for some depressing reading, in terms of finding a viable way forward. It really does sound like re-integration with RoI is the only long-term option.

There seems to have been some quite significant social and cultural changes in RoI in the last few years, with increased secularisations of its laws. How much further does the RoI need to move before NI Unionists might feel comfortable that integration won't threaten their identity, or will that always be a bridge too far for the current generations?

Do you think the more extreme Unionist cohort would rather settle in the UK, with UK gov support, or are they more Irish than that? I appreciate that there is a full spectrum of Unionism, so a grossly unfair question, and I'm not advocating ethnic cleansing!

The impression I have taken from RoI work colleagues is that they are nervous of re-integration occuring before NI has resolved its internal conflicts in a permanent manner. It is possible that the UK rejoining the EU SM and CU might be the best "short" term solution.

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27 minutes ago, hump101 said:

It is possible that the UK rejoining the EU SM and CU might be the best "short" term solution.

Haha, Boris would rather die in a ditch first before that happens  .......  ehm ......  :unsure:

Carry on.

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24 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

I think this is the longest this thread has been silent from the get go...amazing!

Jack is cogitating ...

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52 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

I think this is the longest this thread has been silent from the get go...amazing!

The pre-budget avalanche swamps everything. Happens every budget on this thread. :D

Did notice this gem. Stories appearing about SME's suddenly trading with the EU (they couldn't before?) or how existing ones successfully adjusted.

They all had a link...the same advertiser.

EvVv_b9XYAEObC6.jpeg

IMG_20210301_081438.jpg

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And in the news desperation stakes Irish Protocol related.  Liam Fox was interviewed by Ridge on Sky in 2017 about this 2016 tweet.

"The United Kingdom, is one of the few countries in the European Union that does not need to bury its 20th century history" 

So a 30 year civil war in NI didn't happen and since 1921 it was on and off.

March 2017 - Liam Fox denies sending controversial tweet while sitting in front of giant picture of it 

image.png.c52c035eb7107c49486993d7415d5d99.png

The weird bit is he didn't take it down and still there today and the first standing reply is that of a survivor to a Ireland's equivalent of the Beatles being blown up (he wrote a book) by Unionist paramilitary in collusion with the Brit Army.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Sail4beer said:

I think this is the longest this thread has been silent from the get go...amazing!

Jacks too busy over on

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

You believe Johnson 

You are the only one who thinks that and the only one writing that, starting to think the lack of Brexit news is getting to you. What are you going to do with all your spare time, oh I know become the resident Covid expert here on SA, now thats going to be around for a few years, should see you through your dark hours.

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18 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:
1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

You believe Johnson 

You are the only one who thinks that and the only one writing that,..

So like you everyone else thinks Johnson is honest and I'm the only one that doesn't think that.

:lol::lol::lol:

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18 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So like you everyone else thinks Johnson is honest and I'm the only one that doesn't think that

See there you go again, thinking for the world on their behalf and telling us it all must be true because JS decrees it so.

Sorry but the real world is a very different place to what you think Twitter and the internet is telling you.

OK back to work, not much happening here these days.

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12 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Sorry but the real world is a very different place to what you think Twitter and the internet is telling you.

Ugh..You just told me I'm the "only one who thinks" you believe Johnson.

45 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:
1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

You believe Johnson 

You are the only one who thinks that

How can it be on Twitter??

Can I post on Twitter just by thinking something?

Is this like having X-RAY glasses when you were a kid to look under girls clothes?

Have you checked your drink for Rohypnol??

..mmmmmmm who would do that to you??

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:
6 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:
7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You believe Johnson 

You are the only one who thinks that and the only one writing that,..

So like you everyone else thinks Johnson is honest and I'm the only one that doesn't think that.

:lol::lol::lol:

Come on Wayne, tell the class how you feel about the Johnson, Gove and Raab, or any of the others for that matter,:lol:

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On 2/27/2021 at 9:06 AM, hump101 said:

It certainly did, thank you!

Your assessment makes for some depressing reading, in terms of finding a viable way forward. It really does sound like re-integration with RoI is the only long-term option.

There seems to have been some quite significant social and cultural changes in RoI in the last few years, with increased secularisations of its laws. How much further does the RoI need to move before NI Unionists might feel comfortable that integration won't threaten their identity, or will that always be a bridge too far for the current generations?

Do you think the more extreme Unionist cohort would rather settle in the UK, with UK gov support, or are they more Irish than that? I appreciate that there is a full spectrum of Unionism, so a grossly unfair question, and I'm not advocating ethnic cleansing!

The impression I have taken from RoI work colleagues is that they are nervous of re-integration occuring before NI has resolved its internal conflicts in a permanent manner. It is possible that the UK rejoining the EU SM and CU might be the best "short" term solution.

Thanks! 

Just re-read it after being away from SA for a few days and I appreciate how the search for a viable way forward here can look depressing. As someone who sits in the middle ground and respects both ideologies it can be an infuriating place from a political point and it gets very frustrating, especially when something as monumental as Brexit occurs and self interest rules.

 

Re-integration with the Republic is the most likely long term option and I've been thinking a lot about your perceptive question over the last few days........and I'm not really sure what the answer is!

 

There has been a fundamental shift in the Republic's society and it is a much more liberal, secular and forward looking country than when I was young - which admittedly is a generation ago! It's certainly much more forward thinking that we are up here, which in some ways isn't hard as Northern Ireland is a pretty conservative place - on both sides of the divide. 

 

You're right in saying that the key to a significant number of Unionists shifting is for them to feel that their identity, views and history have a place in the mainstream of a new Ireland. That they wouldn't be pushed to the margins. Unionists wont want to join a United Ireland if they are made to think that their views are worthless, or that their country was illegitimate, or that there is some sense of shame attached to Northern Ireland's existence. There are other questions. How would a new state remember the Troubles - would blame be shared or would it all be considered the fault of one side? It's that sense of a 'pull mechanism' that I've alluded to in the previous posts that I don't currently see.

 

Having said that, in recent years I got a sense that there was significant momentum in that direction. Dublin has been pretty even handed in it's handling of the situation here over recent years and in many ways Unionism would find more in common with and get a better hearing from some of the southern parties as opposed to those on the mainland UK. I remember being very impressed by the way the Easter Rising centenary commemorations of 2016 were conducted. They were reflective and respectful, acknowledged that there were two sides to the story and that both sides suffered. Anglo-Irish relations were good. I remember thinking that if this was a sign of things to come then I could be persuaded that unity was a viable option.

 

The last few years have seen that dynamic change. Maybe it's to do with the rise of Sinn Fein, maybe it's Brexit, maybe it's social media (or as is more likely a combination of those factors) but there has been a significant increase in the amount of ant-British and anti-Unionist rhetoric coming from the Republic over recent years. There is a real feeling that the fears of the pro-British community were ignored during Brexit. There is a perception that when people do make attempts to present a more revisionist view of Irish history then they are condemned as being partition-ist. I can understand why those feelings exist but it has pushed a lot of the British community up here further away from that tipping point. I must stress, though, that there are very few people up here who have genuinely negative feelings about the south. There is a lot of common ground, respect and a real desire to work together. Many Unionists have holiday homes in the Republic - much more so than in Scotland. It's just that they want to remain in the UK. 

 

What would I would love to see North and south is a genuine, open and inclusive conversation not only about where we are going but where we have been. What does it mean to be Irish, British, both or neither? Have a discussion where all constitutional options are on the table - which isn't the case now - have both sides make their case and for the other side to respectfully critique it. For example, I have said all along that I would like to see an Ireland that is more at ease with it's past, that sees positives from the British presence and Northern Ireland's existence as well as the negatives. But do I have a right, as a member of a minority community, to ask that of the majority? If the majority don't want to change their identity then what right do I have to expect them to. That's the sort of conversation I would like to see happen and would readily take part in. As such I'm not sure if the thing that would make more Unionist's change their vote - a fairly fundamental change in the Irish national identity - is a realistic or fair question to ask.

 

Undoubtedly some of the more extreme element of Unionism would move to the mainland in the event of unity and it would be sad to see that happen. I think it would be a very small number, though. The vast majority of people here have Irish-ness as a core part of their identity - just differing types. For many it is a 32 county, Gaelic, nationalist identity but for many others it is Irish-ness in a geographic sense. I am Irish in that it's the island I'm from but my nationality is British....or increasingly Northern Irish (which is another debate!). I absolutely believe you can be both and that's why the rugby team is so important to me, for example. So I would say that virtually all Unionists would stay here in the event of unity - for family reasons, work, a sense of where your roots are and quality of life. It's a great place to live. They mightn't necessarily have a huge sense of attachment to the new state or engage with it but they would keep their heads down and just get on with things.

 

It's interesting what you say about your colleagues in the south. I had a recent conversation with a friend who lives in the west of Ireland and works in a very strong Irish language community. Same age as me. She feels that if a unity referendum was called in the south today then it wouldn't surprise her if it was defeated. Most of the people have a romantic attachment to the concept of a united Ireland but she knows very few who actually want it in reality. In many ways the current situation suits them well. Now if political Unionism could realise this and really promote a positive, open and inclusive Northern Ireland, apologising for the past discrimination that should never have happened, then Northern Ireland could well have a viable long term future.

 

I'll try and finish on a more positive note than before! Yes it is a frustrating place politically with a bunch of incompetent politicians in charge but it is never going back to where it was. Violence will not return, Brexit will sort itself out, Stormont will, by the law of averages, eventually do something and we'll keep chugging on!


Again, not sure if it's answered your question but thanks for asking it!

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Can I post on Twitter just by thinking something?

No but you could put in on there at 2 am like this post.

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Err mate you might want to pop your head up and have a look around. You have been down below shit fighting on the interwebs without a break since 2300 yesterday. 

Tanker Newbuildings Low in 2019, but Still More than 2018 -  synergymarinegroup

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