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On 3/8/2020 at 2:33 PM, jack_sparrow said:

......Using the above here are the 7 tactics  employed by the Brexit Charlatans.....

3. Blame EU Law, EU undemocratic, exploit knowledge gaps on how EU Parliament and Commission works.

Response - push back simply citing actual democratic EU power structures and process. The UK operates largely by its own laws.... 

Using the above tactics amazing how even an act of God like flooding Brexiteers can be blame it on the EU, or can they???

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So from this crowd who call themselves Pro-Brexit Facts 4EU.Org, and nearly sounding like an independent fact checker.

EU Directives have hampered dredging and traditional water management

A 2000 a raft of EU Directives started appearing – particularly the Water Framework Directive and its sub-directives, as well as the Waste Framework and Habitat Directives – which began to interfere in the normal dredging traditions. 

Note: By explanation this sketch appears to scientifically sound but is it?

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And short changed by the EU it would appear.

The "European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF)"

- Since 2002 the EU has agreed to pay out for floods and severe weather related events 77 times.
- In 17 years, only two of these 77 payouts went to the UK.
- In the last 10 years the UK has received just 1.5% of the money paid out.
- That’s the same percentage as Serbia has received, and Serbia isn’t even an EU member state.
- Meanwhile, for the last 18 years the UK taxpayer has been funding 12.5% of this.

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- For the UK from 2016, NO payouts have been approved by the EU for UK floods.
- In the same period the EU agreed 17 payouts totalling €1.7 billion to other EU countries.

So using the above suggested response format of citing actual EU structures and processes and the UK operates largely by its own laws.

1. EU Directives are to blame for floods is completely without foundation.

2. It’s not true that dredging could have prevented much of the recent flooding—potentially, in some cases, it could have made it worse. 28 Feb 2020

3.  EUSF Aid History Since 2002 Aid to UK is as follows. €162.3 million to deal with 2007 flooding in response to an application by the then Labour Government.  In 2016, the EU offered UK aid totalling €60.3 million to deal with 2015 floods but this aid was rejected by the Cameron Government. Apart from in 2007 no applications for EUSF aid have been made by the UK Government.

The real facts.

A decade of austerity has seen cuts to Dept of Environment and Local Authority budgets that deal with flood mitigation. Revealed: how Tory cuts are wrecking UK flood defences - Jan 2016.

As the following graphs show the local authority Environment cuts are -20%. It is a generalisation only but maybe worth mentioning that 13,200 hectares of Green Belt land has been lost since 2010. This may have involved local authorities selling green space (maybe used for flood mitigation) for development purposes to offset Government funding cuts averaging -30%. Consequences I think is the word.

The above is just a snapshot of the Brexiteer shitfuckery and in this case seeks to pry on the misery and misfortunes of others to peddle it.

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No way I'm going to PA. This was a top thread, now it's fucked. Thank you fucking idiots.

I was thinking for the last few days that  as a pro union lifelong Alliance voter I should respond to this post but turning on the radio this morning and hearing Mike Nesbitt made me decide to act.

Umm, that would be you.  1) You are fool (as is both evident and self-confessed) who thinks that brexit is a good idea.  2) You post nonsense that only reinforces this and believe that you a

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Every day the Cult brings up a new commandment for national self harm.

However this time they can't even keep to their own script. Read Chapter 7 of UK Negotiation Mandate that is only 10 days old.

Then read their advice just given to industry stakeholders - such as UK Chamber of Shipping, Ports, Freight Transport Association, Freight Forwarders Association, Eurotunnel etc.

Truckers face paperwork mountain after Britain opts against fast-track security checks agreement with EU

Non-EU freight forwarders to UK already do these Safety & Security Declarations  today but deep sea freight maybe month at sea. Each form between 3 and 4 dozen items depending on direction. These are additional to Customs Declarations and other vehicle/driver requirements.

Cross channel haulage (10k average crossings per day) don't even know which crossing point they are taking until they get close and are routed according to traffic. How do they lodge these forms (220 million annually) in advance and where the average operator only operates a handfull of vehicles when they don't know their UK port of entry?? UK don't even have a computerised system that can handle this amount of traffic.

Has the UK suddenly shifted to the other side of the Atlantic?? These people can't be serious? No one is that dumb.

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thank you UK, that is the way to negotiate, run for WTO.
Do not even attempt to get a waiver, just say you do not need that.

They really want to kill JIT.

And it will be the end of small transporter businesses. Only the big ones can handle the IT.
I am sure small trucking companies with a fleet of like 10 vehicles will have a difficulty rolling out a freight management system that simultaneously speaks to their stocking system, the servers of all their clients new and future, HMRC and EU customs authorities.
They are responsible, not the traders.


The argument that Brexit will not be so bad and trade will find its way and will not be hindered much is gone.

But it is almost sovereignty. They mention WTO, come on, who needs that. Dare to be real sovereign, whimps.

 

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

They really want to kill JIT.

I presume JIT translates to Just In Time,  I think the wake up call of Coronavirus has done to globilisation and JIT a pretty mortal blow, after this scare, then the reliance on other countries for essential supplies to your manufacturing chain, is going to be looked at with different views.

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

thank you UK, that is the way to negotiate, run for WTO.
Do not even attempt to get a waiver, just say you do not need that.

They really want to kill JIT.

And it will be the end of small transporter businesses. Only the big ones can handle the IT.
I am sure small trucking companies with a fleet of like 10 vehicles will have a difficulty rolling out a freight management system that simultaneously speaks to their stocking system, the servers of all their clients new and future, HMRC and EU customs authorities.
They are responsible, not the traders.


The argument that Brexit will not be so bad and trade will find its way and will not be hindered much is gone.

But it is almost sovereignty. They mention WTO, come on, who needs that. Dare to be real sovereign, whimps.

 

All of this is bad for consumers but for the smart and agile investor I see opportunity in the freight and logistics business in the UK.

The effect of the extra complexity and delay will do at least two things:

1.      Take capacity out in two ways – exiting small players and probably bigger effect of reducing effective capacity by increasing delays / transit times.

2.      Increasing capital deployed / minimum economic scale...higher barriers to entry

Both of those structural changes are likely to increase profitability of the industry (at the expense of consumers). Provided the effective capacity reduction exceeds any effective demand reduction from reduced trade/increased cost to trade ...then this will create opportunity.

While the strategics (big established players) will be best placed to buy up the little guys there could also be roll up opportunity to consolidate the smaller players. A new entrant or consolidator of others might have particular opportunity if they can tune their system to the new reality in a way the existing players have not.

 

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7 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

I presume JIT translates to Just In Time,  I think the wake up call of Coronavirus has done to globilisation and JIT a pretty mortal blow, after this scare, then the reliance on other countries for essential supplies to your manufacturing chain, is going to be looked at with different views.

JIT is just showing up the problem of lack of supply chain redundancy, and highlighting modern manufacturings dependance on frictionless borders. Its so much more efficient than stockpiling that coronavirus and brexit problems won't kill it. 

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20 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

I presume JIT translates to Just In Time,  I think the wake up call of Coronavirus has done to globilisation and JIT a pretty mortal blow, after this scare, then the reliance on other countries for essential supplies to your manufacturing chain, is going to be looked at with different views.

I think the two are quite different in their effect on supply chains.

Covid 19 like SARS and MERS are transitional issues that do certainly stress business continuity / disaster recovery plans. They certainly have a major impact for months...maybe even a year...and they favour the larger better prepared players but they are transitional.

A wide spread permanent increase in transit times and costs won’t directly eliminate JIT.

The T – Time will extend...if the transit is longer then you need more stuff in transit. In all likelihood JIT will still be preferable to building to / ordering to inventory. The effect of a longer transit time will be creating some of the disadvantages of building to inventory. The product in transit is a form of inventory...if instead of a days worth of product in transit you now need three days then you need to finance three times as much WIP (work in process) any undiscovered defects in intermediary products produces three times as much waste...

The longer and more expensive transit means that production systems that don’t involve the UK have a structural advantage. Maybe the Brexit regulatory revolution will produce a more efficient market able to overcome that disadvantage ....but it will be starting at a fundamental ongoing disadvantage. More likely as producers make incremental decisions the UK players will be at a disadvantage and eliminated as new models are introduced / new processes developed...

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6 minutes ago, JonRowe said:

efficient than stockpiling that coronavirus and brexit problems won't kill it. 

Is it that much more efficient when the slightest hiccup in the supply chain such as the French Hauliers strikes of a couple of years back, could bankrupt your business. The world is going to have to wake up the fact that long transport links to maintain JIT is all part of the globilisation dependency that is not always to the benefit of anyone other than large companies to maximise their profits.

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3 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Is it that much more efficient when the slightest hiccup in the supply chain such as the French Hauliers strikes of a couple of years back, could bankrupt your business. The world is going to have to wake up the fact that long transport links to maintain JIT is all part of the globilisation dependency that is not always to the benefit of anyone other than large companies to maximise their profits.

No again thats not JIT, thats lack of supply chain redundancy, keeping stock sitting around on the shelf is slow and inefficient.

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2 minutes ago, JonRowe said:

No again thats not JIT, thats lack of supply chain redundancy, keeping stock sitting around on the shelf is slow and inefficient.

Agree work in progress is a cost but if you could source the same product 20 miles down the road without the need of redundancy or 1200 miles down the road but at a cheaper price but with all the disadvantages of the length of the 1200 miles, which one would you choose ?

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29 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Agree work in progress is a cost but if you could source the same product 20 miles down the road without the need of redundancy or 1200 miles down the road but at a cheaper price but with all the disadvantages of the length of the 1200 miles, which one would you choose ?

That depends, which one can enabled a quicker response but with an economic cost, which one can provide the supply I need when I need it. The distance / cost factor is not something that rules out JIT manufacturing, its merely a decision process within it.

Normally I'd say the product 20 miles down the road would be a better fit for JIT manufacturing as it enables a tighter supply chain, but things can still disrupt that supply chain (fire, flooding, staffing difficulties, their own supply chain...) and of course they have to be able to provide the scale I want when I want it.

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32 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Agree work in progress is a cost but if you could source the same product 20 miles down the road without the need of redundancy or 1200 miles down the road but at a cheaper price but with all the disadvantages of the length of the 1200 miles, which one would you choose ?

That is a problem that yeilds to math relatively easily if you know or can get good enough estimates of things like:

Cost for each supplier

Transit time

Transit cost

volatility of transit times

supplier reliability (delivery consistency rate)

cost of capital

cost of outage

cost of emergency supply (for many parts it is cheaper to organize occasional air delivery than to build inventory for the occasional shortage)....

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2 minutes ago, JonRowe said:

That depends, which one can enabled a quicker response but with an economic cost, which one can provide the supply I need when I need it. The distance / cost factor is not something that rules out JIT manufacturing, its merely a decision process within it.

Normally I'd say the product 20 miles down the road would be a better fit for JIT manufacturing as it enables a tighter supply chain, but things can still disrupt that supply chain (fire, flooding, staffing difficulties, their own supply chain...) and of course they have to be able to provide the scale I want when I want it.

Absolutely right that all else equal shorter / faster is better. Witness the concentration of small suppliers in close proximity to large Japanese car manufacturing sites (often with interlinked ownership in Keiretsu).

But for big ticket items with significant minimum economic scale...(e.g. major driveline components)...transit distance becomes less and less important in the decision.

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So where does the Mini engine crank fit in with its 3 times movement across the channel before its finally assembled into a vehicle and then promptly exported back across the channel for a 4th time, that simply can't be good practice. For anyone with a logical mind, all those so called machining operations can be done just down the road and the need for all the logistics on just one part among many thousands in each vehicle, can only be explained by where the best subsidies are.

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

All of this is bad for consumers but for the smart and agile investor I see opportunity in the freight and logistics business in the UK.

Safety & Security Declarations are responsibility of freight transporter. Shipper is responsible for Customs.

No one has experience and resources large or small logistics companies. Freight transporters even harder as they are dominated by small unsophisiticated owners of a handfull of trucks and who keep their market share by being price takers. 

 Tarriffs are totally irrelevant. Was always going to come down to non tariff barriers. The UK as a gateway to Europe for non EU  importers will cease as going direct will save thousands per container. Those with EU FTA will get the fast lane.

UK consumer is going to take it up the arse big time in both price and product diversity.

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1 hour ago, Waynemarlow said:

So where does the Mini engine crank fit in with its 3 times movement across the channel before its finally assembled into a vehicle and then promptly exported back across the channel for a 4th time, that simply can't be good practice. For anyone with a logical mind, all those so called machining operations can be done just down the road and the need for all the logistics on just one part among many thousands in each vehicle, can only be explained by where the best subsidies are.

I would say that Brexit will make the current operating model more expensive. Overtime that will likely will lead to fewer channel crossings - multistep cost minimization exercise with one step going up in cost...you try to reduce that step. The solution will depend on UK vs overseas market demand and local operating environments. Mini makes up about 30% of BMWs UK business so material but not dominating market. Either more concentration of mini manufacturing in the UK or overtime moving Mini manufacturing out of the UK.

In the short run for low capital outlay stuff...probably more concentration in the UK.

In the longer run - it would take a brave business executive to be saying let's put big new capital investments into a market with increasing import/export friction and a government that is on record saying "fuck business"...unless of course somehow the UK treasury comes up with large enough sums of money to cover that extra cost and risk.

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1 hour ago, Waynemarlow said:

So where does the Mini engine crank fit in with its 3 times movement across the channel before its finally assembled into a vehicle and then promptly exported back across the channel for a 4th time, that simply can't be good practice. For anyone with a logical mind, all those so called machining operations can be done just down the road and the need for all the logistics on just one part among many thousands in each vehicle, can only be explained by where the best subsidies are.

As far as I know BMW is building engines for Rolls Royce Cars in germany, since this is the place with with the best knowledge to build these engines... Same may apply for parts for BMWs Minis... Maybe due to the best technical universities in Munich to come back to your talk about universities. Volkswagen is also producing parts of their Bentleys in germany, to be able to supply superior quality products. Not saying that there are no good suppliers in the UK, but since the german gov has adviced the companies to take all UK suppliers out of their supply chains due to rules of origin, their market is propably going to shrink. Plus life may get harder for the 400000 workers that are employed by german companies in the UK...  but o.K. that's the choice of the UK. 

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2 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Either more concentration of mini manufacturing in the UK or overtime moving Mini manufacturing out of the UK.

Why stay let alone concentrate??? Can't capitalise on origin anymore. Optimise depreciation of P&E then piss off. 

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The Mini is all about "Branding" would it have the same kudos to the purchaser if you said its a German Mini, BMW if they didn't think the heritage part of the Branding made any difference would have moved the production years ago.

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28 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Safety & Security Declarations are responsibility of freight transporter. Shipper is responsible for Customs.

No one has experience and resources large or small logistics companies. Freight transporters even harder as they are dominated by small unsophisiticated owners of a handfull of trucks and who keep their market share by being price takers. 

 Tarriffs are totally irrelevant. Was always going to come down to non tariff barriers. The UK as a gateway to Europe for non EU  importers will cease as going direct will save thousands per container. Those with EU FTA will get the fast lane.

UK consumer is going to take it up the arse big time in both price and product diversity.

I am getting a bit of an education in this stuff. I’m working with a company that is selling high value/margin relatively low volume goods internationally – some covered by various FTAs – others not. Lots of sales to EU and UK but for this year we’ve declined UK sales unless they are FOB at the North American distribution center (clients problem once loaded on a truck at our dock), for the EU we will consider DPP (i.e. delivered to the clients door with duty and taxes taken care of)

I’m certainly finding the paper work, regulatory issues, etc. a much bigger cost than the cost of the duties even if they applied – in this case mostly duties exempted by FTAs.

From a shipping and services related to customs etc. we are getting much more aggressive pricing from the very big suppliers...BUT the smaller players are offering so much better service (they actually answer the phone and have people who can actually answer a question...e.g. DPP vs DPP Vat unpaid approaches) that it more than makes up for their higher cost.

If this business were selling high volume low margin...be very different answer but right now I’m saving money by going with more expensive suppliers who are making my life easier.

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4 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

The Mini is all about "Branding" would it have the same kudos to the purchaser if you said its a German Mini, BMW if they didn't think the heritage part of the Branding made any difference would have moved the production years ago.

Nope...Mercedes did a lot of research on country of manufacturing impact on brand perception before they started manufacturing in US...

at least for US buyers it didn't really make a difference

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7 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

The Mini is all about "Branding" would it have the same kudos to the purchaser if you said its a German Mini, BMW if they didn't think the heritage part of the Branding made any difference would have moved the production years ago.

Nedcar, Netherlands:

Current

productionEdit

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42 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Why stay let alone concentrate??? Can't capitalise on origin anymore. Optimise depreciation of P&E then piss off. 

Exactly...for smaller cost, more easily sourced items you might concentrate that purchasing on the UK side of the border while you were still making money on the big imobile capital investments in the UK...i.e. for a transitional period there might be some concentration of activity. The moment marginal returns on those assetts (for calculating marginal returns you'd treat the UK assetts at near zero value as they would have little redeployment or selling on opportunity) dropped below other returns you could get or you need to make an major investment in those assetts (e.g. signficant tooling for a model change)...then you would leave the UK.

Given the mini engine is used in a number of minis assembled outside the UK as jgh66 points out...

I'd predict the solution will be to move BMW (mini) engines production from Hams Hall in Warwickshire to Austria and then import the engine into the UK to supply Cowley until the next major model refress...then goodbye to 90 years of production at Cowley.

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2 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

Jaguar Land Rover Slovakia:

LR Discovery and Defender.... 

And really Tata of India products...

There are no volume UK car companies.

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3 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

I presume JIT translates to Just In Time,  I think the wake up call of Coronavirus has done to globilisation and JIT a pretty mortal blow, after this scare, then the reliance on other countries for essential supplies to your manufacturing chain, is going to be looked at with different views.

How is JIT any worse than deep ocean cargo supply? In fact it is probably better with instant recovery time. Pandemics stop everything not just freight. For instance getting shop drawings transmitted digitally before something has even been manufactured first requires someone to draw them. Bit hard making stuff or a even national income without globalisation. That steel works is not much use without someone's else's coal and iron ore and someone else to buy what comes out if it.

If I was UK I would be more worried about its poor food security. BTW I wonder how that trade genius at #10 is going who said the UK should import all its food supply? Bad career utterance that one.

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

How is JIT any worse than deep ocean cargo supply? In fact it is probably better with instant recovery time. Pandemics stop everything not just freight. For instance getting shop drawings transmitted digitally before something has even been manufactured first requires someone to draw them. Bit hard making stuff or a even national income without globalisation. That steel works is not much use without someone's else's coal and iron ore and someone else to buy what comes out if it.

If I was UK I would be more worried about food security. BTW I wonder how that trade genius at #10 is going who said the UK should import all its food supply? Bad career utterance that one.

Just to be controversial.

Actually I thought the guy saying the UK should give up food production and import it all was one of the few sensible folks in that crew.

It sure isn’t consistent with an independent UK but it might well be a rational economic decision.

If you put it in different context – who in the US would panic if any US state stopped agricultural production (11 US states are larger than the UK) and just bought food stuff from other states.

The UK is not a low cost producer of food.

Redirect some of the farm subsidies to more efficient environmental protection and rural beautification and pocket the rest.

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So Boris says maybe we “take it on the chin” which I think is:

80% infected: 42,000,000
3% mortality: 1.2 m deaths

This cunt is insane.

 

could lead to big cost savings for the NHS, if you can get rid of all the old and sick people in just one strike?? 

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35 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So Boris says maybe we “take it on the chin” which I think is:

80% infected: 42,000,000
3% mortality: 1.2 m deaths

 

Yea who mocks such a serious issue when in your circumstances, you would be looking right down the barrel of being one of the statistics, age tick, reduced immunity tick.

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38 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Just to be controversial.

Actually I thought the guy saying the UK should give up food production and import it all was one of the few sensible folks in that crew.

It sure isn’t consistent with an independent UK but it might well be a rational economic decision.....

....The UK is not a low cost producer of food.

Redirect some of the farm subsidies to more efficient environmental protection and rural beautification and pocket the rest.

Food security highly rated international commodity. 100% import is regarded as nuts if you have production capacity. Production cost not a factor like other commodities. That is why it agri food has the highest and most widespread tariffs of all commodities globally.

UK high cost producer is not right, though it certainly has some sector inefficiencies bumping up price. Subsidies already on the way out in EU CAP and UK following same plan. It's problem is production quantity and diversity not matching it's population.

Netherlands and France in World Top 3 food security stakes why can't the UK compete is the question.

43 minutes ago, KC375 said:

....If you put it in different context – who in the US would panic if any US state stopped agricultural production (11 US states are larger than the UK) and just bought food stuff from other states...

Not panic, shit themselves 

Everyone assumes US is close to being a net food exporter. Actually world's largest net importer by value/volume. Some basic sectors like fruit/veg around 50% self sufficient. But big exporter some sectors.

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27 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So Boris says maybe we “take it on the chin” which I think is:

80% infected: 42,000,000
3% mortality: 1.2 m deaths

This cunt is insane.

 

 

14 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

could lead to big cost savings for the NHS, if you can get rid of all the old and sick people in just one strike?? 

jgh may have it exactly right. In the new brave Brexit world of freedom from Europe, freedom from regulation free markets and survival of the fittest ...well Covid 19 may be exactly what the doctor (or at least Dominic) ordered.

Probably well less than 1% fatality rate in the general population but 10% or more “compromised” patients. Really “compromised” is just code for the people that are costing the NHS too much. Given the shortage of respiratory support and attending staff in a “take it on the chin” approach the fatality rate among the “compromised” might hit desirable levels of over 50%...that would deliver real cost savings for the NHS in 2021.

This is the sort of creative outside the box economic thinking Dom has been calling for. Get ride of the farmers, the fishermen, the infirm and transform the UK into a new economic and social paradigm. Dom has already shown a fondness for hiring eugenics fans.

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4 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Yea who mocks such a serious issue when in your circumstances, you would be looking right down the barrel of being one of the statistics, age tick, reduced immunity tick.

I think it less mocking than trying to find some thead of sanity in the actions taken by no10

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Food security highly rated international commodity. 100% import is regarded as nuts if you have production capacity. Production cost not a factor like other commodities. That is why it agri food has the highest and most widespread tariffs of all commodities globally.

UK high cost producer is not right, though it certainly has some sector inefficiencies bumping up price. Subsidies already on the way out in EU CAP and UK following same plan. It's problem is production quantity and diversity not matching it's population.

Netherlands and France in World Top 3 food security stakes why can't the UK compete is the question.

Not panic, shit themselves 

Everyone assumes US is close to being a net food exporter. Actually world's largest net importer by value/volume. Some basic sectors like fruit/veg around 50% self sufficient. But big exporter some sectors.

US is ....Actually world's largest net importer by value/volume.

Can you provide some source for that? The only info I could find easily suggested otherwise but was so dated (2007) that it could be meaningless...same dated info suggested Norway was the least secure producing only 50% of its needs.

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36 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

could lead to big cost savings for the NHS, if you can get rid of all the old and sick people in just one strike?? 

 

12 minutes ago, KC375 said:

and survival of the fittest ...well Covid 19 may be exactly what the doctor (or at least Dominic) ordered

Probably well less than 1% fatality rate in the general population but 10% or more “compromised” patients. Really “compromised” is just code for the people that are costing the NHS too much.

It's going to have come down hard to produce a impact. 65 - 75yo 12 million. Over 75yo 6 million.

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16 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Yea who mocks such a serious issue when in your circumstances, you would be looking right down the barrel of being one of the statistics, age tick, reduced immunity tick.

Well if there’s a big outbreak, and it affects the older generations as predicted it’ll knock the support for Brexit for six! 
A shame it wasn’t a few years ago. :ph34r:

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22 minutes ago, KC375 said:

US is ....Actually world's largest net importer by value/volume.

Can you provide some source for that? The only info I could find easily suggested otherwise but was so dated (2007) that it could be meaningless...same dated info suggested Norway was the least secure producing only 50% of its needs.

That is total net value which US population and standard of living drives up. Highest net is not least secure.

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

I’m certainly finding the paper work, regulatory issues, etc. a much bigger cost than the cost of the duties even if they applied – in this case mostly duties exempted by FTAs.

KC interesting if your experience matches this.

The Trade Barrier Index (TBI) 

Shows EU countries are in fact some of the most open to trade in the world. Because of state by state regulation differences the UK is top of the EU list so today is one of most open to trade in the world.

I wonder where it is going to end up now...a fall from score of 8 to 54 to join the US???

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KC, yep some people will make money, investment in UK to EU exporting sector will go down. If you want to produce for the Eu you are not going to invest in the UK.

Jacko, publishing a draft FTA is not uncommon. It can speed things up. They should have one ready at the time of the referendum.

Got the feeling Brexit must be done, whatever the costs. And Brexit means cutting al ties to Europe and the EU, simples.
And it was the slogan that gave BJ a majority.

Investors are looking for stable countries, what will happen after Bj gets defeated ? Big swing, nationalisations, high business taxes ?

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

So Boris says maybe we “take it on the chin” which I think is:

80% infected: 42,000,000
3% mortality: 1.2 m deaths

This cunt is insane.

Just a reminder:one clever austrian guy had the same Idea 80 years ago:

Aktion T4

 
 

Aktion T4 (German, pronounced [akˈtsi̯oːn teː fiːɐ]) was a postwar name for mass murder by involuntary euthanasia in Nazi Germany.[4] The name T4 is an abbreviation of Tiergartenstraße 4, a street address of the Chancellery department set up in early 1940, in the Berlin borough of Tiergarten, which recruited and paid personnel associated with T4.[5][c] Certain German physicians were authorised to select patients "deemed incurably sick, after most critical medical examination" and then administer to them a "mercy death" (Gnadentod).[7] In October 1939, Adolf Hitler signed a "euthanasia note", backdated to 1 September 1939, which authorised his physician Karl Brandt and Reichsleiter Philipp Bouhler to implement the programme.

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8 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Jacko, publishing a draft FTA is not uncommon. It can speed things up. They should have one ready at the time of the referendum.

Boasting they are now going to legal drafting when they still have a mountain to climb made me laugh beside Gove saying "significant differences" ...  "In other areas, notably fisheries, governance and dispute settlement, and the so-called “level playing field”, there were, as expected, significant differences."

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21 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

Just a reminder:one clever austrian guy had the same Idea 80 years ago:....

Yes I very much had that in mind but I decided not to mention it for two reasons:

1. I don't want to be sent to PA...I'm too young and fragile;

2. I'm trying to avoid Godwin's law.

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Now this stupid woman is gone past the annoying stage.

This is nothing new, there has been no ban -  it has been a long process of mucking around on UK's behalf around disease control regulation alignment, noting Ireland satisfied that requirement 5 years ago.

JULY 2016 - US set to import British beef for the first time in 20 years

No ban and the reality the UK has fuck all beef production headroom. The UK currently imports around 35% of the beef and veal it consumes or around 250,000 tonnes. Most from EU (majority Ireland) Exports around 100,000 tonnes or 15% of production goes to EU where most comes back to UK processed. BMPA

Truss's £66 million is a made up figure, noting Ireland with production capacity and headroom US exports struggle to exceed £10 million.

Any UK FTA with US the biggest hurdle won't go away - the US Farmer a protected species and guess what trade off they will demand - import to UK what is illegal for UK producers to produce. NB. Biggest beef exporter to US is Aust and FTA tariff free & lower cost of production. Dream on.

 

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5 hours ago, LeoV said:

Got the feeling Brexit must be done, whatever the costs. And Brexit means cutting al ties to Europe and the EU, simples.
And it was the slogan that gave BJ a majority.

Yep reality is now getting in the way of the slogan, the slogan can't be shown to be wrong no matter the cost = No Deal in June.

The biggest prize for Tory Right sits in Chapter 1 of their Brexit Bible. "Fix the UK economically by winding back UK regulations to the good old days."  3rd World status here we come.

The real hilarity will then be the first UK attempted FTA once EU is disposed of. Particularly where that countries existing trade with EU is a significant proportion of their existing trade, (which just about includes everybody except maybe North Korea) and discussions get around to reciprocal standards. LOL.

Or if you have got some shit you can't get rid of, just like making shit or can't do anything else but make shit -  no problem, send it to the UK. In fact with suppresed cost of UK labour plus it is legal to employ wee children, it might easier to set up there and make that shit.

5 hours ago, LeoV said:

Investors are looking for stable countries, what will happen after Bj gets defeated ? Big swing, nationalisations, high business taxes ?

...and Rejoin.

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$142 billion of stimulus so far for Coronavirus. Who is the odd man out?

$50bn - IMF
$15.4bn – Hong Kong
$13.7bn - South Korea
$12bn - World Bank
$8.4bn – Italy
$8.3bn – US 
$5.5bn – Japan
$2bn – Taiwan
$0.75bn - Indonesia
$14.2bn - China
$5.5bn – Australia
$3.0bn – Ireland
$12.0bn – Germany
$Nil – UK

Hospital beds per 1,000 people (OECD). Spot the problem?

Japan 13
South Korea 12
Russia 8
Germany 8
France 6
Switzerland 4.5
China 4.3
Scotland 4.2
Australia 3.8
Italy 3.6
Spain 2.97
Ireland 2.96
USA 2.77
England 2.3

Then again why be surprised. The team that pissed £69 million on Operation Brock up against the wall, (the Kent motorways lane barriers thing) aimed at scaring the EU into believing the UK were going for No Deal, then demolishing it for Election and putting into storage. No doubt to trot out again shortly to try the same scare thing again.

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

Got the feeling Brexit must be done, whatever the costs.

I've got the feeling that now would be a really, really good time for UK/EU freight transporters to do a 5 day replicate of what non-tariff barriers to Channel trade look like costing.

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Brexit news is is thin on the ground so thought sharing this may interest.

I have been a great fan of Nth Ireland activist and arch socialist Bernadete Devlin  (or Bernadette McAliskey). Our political views may not align but her political and social brain I find absolutely astounding.

Now 73 years old she is a standout as an original 1960's civil rights campaigner, a socialist breakaway from Sinn Féin (she abhorres violence) yet some of her best friends were members of the IRA, biographer at the age of 23 and a Republican to the core, but not a Nationalist (there is a big difference). She has no time for major parties, particularly Sinn Fein and it's leadership and is quoted as saying she would probably not vote for reunification in a border poll. More on that later.

Many probably only know her as the youngest MP elected to Westminister at age 21 as an Independent Socialist and who in the HOC the day following Bloody Sunday in January 1972 (she was there), stormed to the front bench and slapped NI Home Secretary across the face when he told the House the British paratroopers had fired in self-defence.  Bernadette Devlin Interview - HOC Slap

Well known as spokesperson for the Smash H-Block Campaign Committee, which supported the IRA and Nationalist hunger strikers in late 70's/early 80's and nearly murdered because of that Committee being a thorn in Thatcher's side. The Ulster Defence Association (UDA) loyalist paramilitary group shot her 9 times along with her husband in 1981 in front of her kids. The evidence indicates they did so in collusion with and at direction of the Thatcher Government and British Army.

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She is the only surviving members of the H Block Committee, all the others were targeted like her and not so lucky. All this ironically being no friend of Sinn Fein who campaigned against her in a number of elections.

This first vid is of her being interviewed in London in March 1972 just after Bloody Sunday and the day after Home Rule was brought down (collapsing Stormont for 35 years) by a  William F Buckley Jnr.

He was an American right wing writer, commentator and would be political aspirant who hosted a long running public affairs television show in the 60's in the US called the "Firing Line." 

As you can see he has this really fucking annoying contrived accent, being a combination of US east coast gentry and upper class English with a touch of Southern drawl. His approach of interrupting guests and use of obscure facts and forced analogies makes you want to reach into the screen and punch him.

He is sort of like a ruthless 1960's polarising version of Andrew Neil today. His most famous line was saying to Gore Vidal: "Now listen, you queer, stop calling me a crypto-Nazi or I will sock you in your goddam face." In his favour though, he did sail across the Atlantic twice.

Anyway if you watch you will see this wee young lass, poor as a church mouse but educated from County Tyrone, smoke in hand and unblinking either carving up this model of American aristocracy or batting it back with precision.

The three young English tosser panelists likewise. Nerves of steel as those four sitting opposite her looked down their noses in utter contempt of her and those she spoke for.

My two standouts; 

- From 11 min. Conservative versus conservative politics with “elections fought from the back of lorries, either draped in the tricolour [the Irish flag] or the Union Jack”. She doesn't accept that Catholic-Protestant paradigm and is insisting on "dual identity." That is the cornerstone to the Sunningdale (powersharing) Agreement of two years later (that never lifted off as the Unionists killed it off) and it's near facsimile the Good Friday Agreement nearly 4, 000 lives, many more suffering and 27 years later on from where she suggested that was the only way forward. Ahead of her time. The GFA by the way she is not a great fan of, but more on that later.

- From 35 min she explains in detail the background and in exacting accuracy where Ireland is today, nearly 50 years in advance.

As I said very large brain this lady. Devlin is one of the few who truly understands the "Irish Problem" and risks of unification, albeit coloured by her socialist bent. The next vid I post which is only a few years old will spell that out in greater detail.

Anyone in London who thinks fucking around with the Ireland Protocol in the Brexit WA is nothing to worry about, I would strongly suggest they watch this. 

 

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Italy 60 million people lock down. Over 9,000 cases and 460 deaths.

For data followers the UK, USA, Spain, Germany, Switzland & France are nearly exactly matching Italy's 33% daily growth rate. Those 6 countries are between 9 and 13.5 days behind Italy. Japan the odd man out.

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Quote

Keir Starmer, the Labour leadership frontrunner, has declined to rule out campaigning to rejoin the EU in the years ahead, saying it was a question for future generations.

The shadow Brexit secretary said he did not think it was a “priority for now and the immediate future” and has previously said the question of leaving the EU is over. But when pressed to rule out advocating rejoining the EU in future, he said: “It’s for our kids to decide what our future relationship is.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/08/keir-starmer-declines-to-rule-out-campaigning-to-rejoin-eu

Did labour buy shares in a fence company??

Image result for sitting on the fence

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

...and Rejoin.

Not in a few decades.

Funniest ;
Export expert: In the Express, Sunak reveals he will increase the state loans available to export firms to £8 billion from £3 billion in an effort to boost global trade after Brexit. “This decade will provide even more opportunities for British businesses to export and trade with new partners across the world,” the chancellor says. “This package — which is the highest level of export lending the government has ever made available — will provide support to industries and regions across the country.”

You know, to boost export you could pay that 8 billion to the EU. seems to be the entry fee you had. Ooops that low fee is gone now forever.
Oh no, then you have to follow SM rules. So you need billions to find market niches where there are no trade rules, impossible except for smuggling, illegal mining, drugs and arms black market trade etc.Swashbuckling Global Brittiania.
This loan offer is so bleak, lending money has never been so cheap. Are they going to pay you for loaning money ?

Even more funnier;
The ERG is against Huawai, so they will vote against it today.
The Tory reaction;
Not impressed: A senior government official calls Playbook to suggest that “certain Tories need to take a long, hard look at themselves” today. The official added: “This is a time we are gripped by coronavirus, when the government is about to deliver its first budget … and they are diverting their energy into trying to inflict a defeat upon their own side. Frankly most of these people are not very well informed, and will not have to be held to account about what this policy change would mean for consumers. They are not very good at government.”

Just replace Huawai with Brexit, and you are spot on too. ERG, newspapers and thinktanks know how to use the power of populism, and will not retreat. You thought having a ref and then an exit will get rid off them, no way. Green stuff, taxes and Huwai are the next ones. expect the ERG and Brexit party to run hand in hand again.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Brexit news is is thin on the ground so thought sharing this may interest.

Here even on business related channels, tv, internet newspaper, it has gone since end Feb. as headline news, it is now more 3rd page news.
Prepare for WTO or Canada, not much difference without the transport waiver now. And that is it, no drama. Even the fisherman are more hopeful they can continue to fish.
The years of delay have been good.

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20 minutes ago, LeoV said:

The ERG is against Huawai, so they will vote against it today.

The Huawai blocking list is 26 so far. Would need another 14 Tories and opposition vote in unison for the Government to lose.

#10 looks safe I think.....unless the Spartans play the Coronovirus card :D

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So I go hang out at Boris's front door saying no one really knows ...the uncertainty.... blah blah and worry about my mate inside working hard and tossing and turning overnight. 

In the morning I wake up and suddenly say we have a crash and it could have "as big if not bigger" impact than the GFC.

WTF.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The Huawai blocking list is 26 so far. Would need another 14 Tories and opposition vote in unison for the Government to lose.

Gov will not loose, but it is a pain in the ass, ERG about Brexit was first small fry too.
It just shows BJ majority is not as stable as they will tell you. And many years of difficult decisions ahead.

So recap;
Brexit reasons; totally bogus
Financially we will be better off, dustbin.
We will make our own trade rules, dustbin or UK must 100% stop exports.
and Fish oh the Fish, EU boats will have access. Or they will fight for it.
Less asylum seekers You think it will magically stop ? Dream on.

true or still questionable, but worth it ?
We will make our own laws, possible, go ahead, first make sure the laws in your Union is fixed. And which EU ones were so bad ?
Less European workers, yep, in the future. replaced by Non EU ones.
We will not be under EU undemocratic government. Yep, you are on your own now, good luck. Seems you have very loose understanding what democracy is.
Blue passports, yep. But with less right to work and travel and own property in the EU.

Let see were they are in 10 years.
Oh, There must be a sale in the future of Med based UK boats, and 2d homes in France and Spain. And a market for motor sail deck salon boats for pensioners, as their retreat to the EU will stop. Back to the old days when travelling around the UK was de rigour. With an occasional summer visit to the EU as a normal tourist. No more emigration to the EU.
 

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""We will not be under EU undemocratic government. Yep, you are on your own now, good luck. Seems you have very loose understanding what democracy is ""

Better than having no fucking idea at all

 

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24 minutes ago, LeoV said:

And a market for motor sail deck salon boats for pensioners, as their retreat to the EU will stop. Back to the old days when travelling around the UK was de rigour. 

Returning UK Expats will be skint as their Costa 2 bedroom apartment was sold to a nice Syrian couple for a fraction for what the paid for it 10 years ago.

There will be a rush followed by explosion for UK canal boats as that is all they can afford. They then demand the Govt build more canals to fit them all in.

Govt obliges by raiding flooding infrastructure and Midlands leveling up funds as polls show their survival depends on the over 65 vote. They also throw in a pension increase for anyone who doesn't have a letterbox. 

In the week before the 2024 Election a one-in-300 year storm causes unprecedented flooding flushing them all out into the North and Irish Seas where they miss polling day. 

3F2F509B00000578-0-image-a-3_1492184898708.jpg

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Returning UK Expats will be skint as their Costa 2 bedroom apartment was sold to a nice Syrian couple for a fraction for what the paid for it 10 years ago.

There will be a rush followed by explosion for UK canal boats as that is all they can afford. They then demand the Govt build more canals to fit them all in.

Govt obliges by raiding flooding infrastructure and Midlands leveling up funds as polls show their survival depends on the over 65 vote. They also throw in a pension increase for anyone who doesn't have a letterbox. 

In the week before the 2024 Election a one-in-300 year storm causes unprecedented flooding flushing them all out into the North and Irish Seas where they miss polling day. 

3F2F509B00000578-0-image-a-3_1492184898708.jpg

image.jpeg.d7fba50a21563a1b2f4f7d373e2932f0.jpeg

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This is going to be great for a global audience who already think the Govt is mental.......the spectacle of the UK Chancellor drunk as a skunk at the Dispatch Box delivering a Budget he can't keep a straight face over and gets an attack of the giggles.

PS. Him then throwing up over Boris would be nice added extra...but maybe a bit much to wish for.

 

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

then we have this....instead of just snubbing the racist prick, Harry should have also kicked him in the balls.

Look at Johnson's face when he realises he has been skipped 

Better get your sources right, that was fakenews,  cut clip. H talked to BJ.

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

and Fish oh the Fish, EU boats will have access. Or they will fight for it.

Scrub that one. No fighting, apart from some argy bargy at the table for domestic appearances sake, fishing is already off the table IMO.

If UK start a fish war the militant French will oblige and in kind and brutal. They can blockade Calais and Boulogne-sur-Mer etc by both land and sea in their sleep. Jesus they even use their own Govt and other EU states for port blockade practise from time to time.

The UK can't afford a high profile international incident as it will expose in 5 seconds that all they have promised domestically over fishing rights has been bullshit and can only come out looking like a bunch of dicks, which they are.

No domestic upside when already you have a 80 seat majority and the next election is over 4 years away, just downside.

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Scrub that one. No fighting, apart from some argy bargy at the table for domestic appearances sake, fishing is already off the table IMO.

If UK start a fish war the militant French will oblige and in kind and brutal. They can blockade Calais and Boulogne-sur-Mer etc by both land and sea in their sleep. Jesus they even use their own Govt and other EU states for port blockade practise from time to time.

The UK can't afford a high profile international incident as it will expose in 5 seconds that all they have promised domestically over fishing rights has been bullshit and can only come out looking like a bigger bunch of dicks, which than they already are.

No domestic upside when already you have a 80 seat majority and the next election is over 4 years away, just downside.

Just a minor edit.

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I do not know how the domestic side will play out. They loved BJ so much that they made him PM.
He wants to be the Brexit PM for the history books, nothing else matters. If it goes wrong; hey folks, it is what the people wanted, and the Eu is to blame anyway.

Believe fishing rights around Channel Islands is a big thingy for the French and fishing in the Channel. That will be the battlefield.

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Right wing Brexiteers on Twitter like Carswell Leave.EU founder and other more populists;
Italy is suspending mortgage payments, it will go broke and leave the EU.

Few hours later;
UK; RBS is suspending mortgages.

Utter silence. While mortgaged home ownership in the  UK is much and much higher then in Italy.

Really it is time for the UK to be alone for a few decades.

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

Blue passports, yep. But with less right to work and travel and own property in the EU.

They will also need to have them on hand to travel not just within their own continent but also within the UK, that is cross the east west border from GB to NI....and they are more black than blue...the Polish printer got even.

Bit of Polish history some Brexiteers should be forced to know.

A total of 8,384 Polish airforce personal were on British soil in WWII. They couldn't speak English so instruction done in French, had to learn many things from scratch, including how to measure speed in miles instead of kilometres and fuel in gallons instead of litres. They had to learn to push the throttle forward to accelerate, not backwards as it was set in Polish aircraft. Practised riding tricycles - all equipped with radio, speed indicators and compasses - around airfields in flying formations. They looked upon Britain with great anticipation and named it 'The Island of the Last Hope'. For the few still alive I wonder what they name it now?

THE POLISH PILOTS WHO FLEW IN THE BATTLE OF BRITAIN

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I hope the EU is making a list of UK people who are a nuisance based in their lies about the EU, and will not allow them passports or visa. For the good of the EU health, as they must certainly have some thing very sick making in their brains.
Just start with the populists, from Johnson to the lowest TBP MEP, random populists and journalists. For the Johnson's and alike an exception, everyone with that name must be blocked for eternity or for how long the EU exists ( a few days some will think).

Really to gloat over the problems Italy has is so low.

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11 minutes ago, LeoV said:

I hope the EU is making a list of UK people who are a nuisance based in their lies about the EU, and will not allow them passports or visa. For the good of the EU health, as they must certainly have some thing very sick making in their brains.
Just start with the populists, from Johnson to the lowest TBP MEP, random populists and journalists. For the Johnson's and alike an exception, everyone with that name must be blocked for eternity or for how long the EU exists ( a few days some will think).

Really to gloat over the problems Italy has is so low.

I'm sure there's a few in the UK starting that list already.................... the blowback from this is going to be messy!

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Right wing Brexiteers on Twitter like Carswell Leave.EU founder and other more populists;
Italy is suspending mortgage payments, it will go broke and leave the EU.

Few hours later;
UK; RBS is suspending mortgages.

Utter silence. While mortgaged home ownership in the  UK is much and much higher then in Italy.

Really it is time for the UK to be alone for a few decades.

They sure got that wrong. UK more than double Italy's ratio for mortgaged owner occupied homes. Everyone thinks of the UK as owner occupied property owner leaders in Europe. It isn't. Poorer countries tend to have higher rates of owner occupiers and lower rates of indebtedness.

They actually have a relatively low proportion of owner occupiers (65%) but one of the highest proportions of those which are mortgaged (over half) and 38% of all homes.

Italy actually has the inverse with higher proportion of owner occupiers (72%) but one of the smallest proportions of those which are mortgaged and only 17% of all homes.

It could be argued that the UK householders  are more prone to BOTH rental and mortgage stress than many countries in Europe.

This may explain why mortgage possession claims have increased in the UK in the last 5 years.

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 BIG NEWS - PARLIAMENT HAS A NEW TREATY SCRUTINY COMMITTEE ...well nearly.

Lords has always looked at treaties but will be now via a dedicated Sub-Committee (under the umbrella of the EU Committee) to consider all international treaties and agreements. So this makes treaty scrutiny now very much a part of the business of the House of Lords. This will include all new UK Trade Agreements. 

Someone is going to be pissed off.

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30 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:
1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Right wing Brexiteers on Twitter like Carswell Leave.EU founder and other more populists;
Italy is suspending mortgage payments, it will go broke and leave the EU.

Few hours later;
UK; RBS is suspending mortgages.

Utter silence. While mortgaged home ownership in the  UK is much and much higher then in Italy.

Really it is time for the UK to be alone for a few decades.

They sure got that wrong. UK more than double Italy's ratio for mortgaged owner occupied homes. Everyone thinks of the UK as owner occupied property owner leaders in Europe. It isn't. Poorer countries tend to have higher rates of owner occupiers and lower rates of indebtedness.

They actually have a relatively low proportion of owner occupiers (65%) but one of the highest proportions of those which are mortgaged (over half) and 38% of all homes.

Italy actually has the inverse with higher proportion of owner occupiers (72%) but one of the smallest proportions of those which are mortgaged and only 17% of all homes.

It could be argued that the UK householders  are more prone to BOTH rental and mortgage stress than many countries in Europe.

This may explain why mortgage possession claims have increased in the UK in the last 5 years.

 

How nice of the banks to help out the home owners.............I guess those renting will just have to fend for themselves. <_<

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 BIG NEWS - PARLIAMENT HAS A NEW TREATY SCRUTINY COMMITTEE ...well nearly.

Lords has always looked at treaties but will be now via a dedicated Sub-Committee (under the umbrella of the EU Committee) to consider all international treaties and agreements. So this makes treaty scrutiny now very much a part of the business of the House of Lords. This will include all new UK Trade Agreements. 

Someone is going to be pissed off.

ESwGhFRX0AEYKeP.jpeg

Will that actually stop Johnson and Cummings et al. from just pushing everything through regardless?

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7 minutes ago, mad said:

Will that actually stop Johnson and Cummings et al. from just pushing everything through regardless?

A decent speed bump ..but 80 seats is 80 seats. Best protection is unearthing the fuckups that rushing shit through will produce using independent expert witnesses addressing the committee. It also provides a source for the media to put some sun on the shit. 

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13 minutes ago, mad said:

Will that actually stop Johnson and Cummings et al. from just pushing everything through regardless?

Legislation  like trade is reduced by friction - which the Lords have just added to passing treaties...think of it as a nontariff barrier

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24 minutes ago, mad said:

How nice of the banks to help out the home owners.............I guess those renting will just have to fend for themselves. <_<

Generous landlords? Small landlords that get a bank mortgage holiday pass it on as a part rent holiday, pay at back end of the lease??? Might have to offer up some security like your oldest child :P

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