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Hi ya'll. Well this is a son of a bitch. I've weathered a lot of shit and discomfort in my life but this is a MF.....and I would classify my case as moderate. I can't imagine those who become critical

Well...............after two pretty shitty days....not as shitty as the first round mind you, but still pretty shitty.....with the exact same symptoms but less intense, today I feel better. Not 100% b

To help with any confusion from the update today. The Rules: 1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can. 2. Masks are useless, but maybe yo

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I'm kind of liking the zombie answer. 

As the curves flatten, the pendulum swings, the yin/yang, darkness-light, good evil, Jedi-Sith,  will Finland be the bellwether of doom?  The patient  Zombie Zero?

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7 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Fortunately you can measure this kind of stupid.  Unfortunately the measuring stick is body bags 28 days from contact.

If you infect all 30 people on that beach, the  death rate wouldn't fill A bag, much less bags in the plural.

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15 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

If you infect all 30 people on that beach, the  death rate wouldn't fill A bag, much less bags in the plural.

By they infect at least 3 more each and those infect 3 more....... you can see where I’m going with this can’t you? 

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10 hours ago, White Lightning2 said:

The governor here announced that we are making progress. Curve is flattening and we are sending extra supplies to more needed areas.

Media runs with the story.

Today I saw twice as many people out as yesterday. Almost normal Monday traffic. The beach (small beach, only 100' long) near the marina I work out of, had about 25-30 people all playing in the sand and out on paddleboards.

People wandering around the local waterfront park.

Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.

 

WL

 

F5BBB596-73B4-42F5-A30E-754DA7E6BF7A.jpeg

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2 hours ago, mad said:

By they infect at least 3 more each and those infect 3 more....... you can see where I’m going with this can’t you? 

But that wouldn't be the thirty people on the beach now would it?  Who's not so good at the maths?

I understand this, and where you are coming from, but let's be honest it's just arrogance thinking you can control nature.

We have two options, let this burn through the population, maybe save the economy, and accept the ~.0034% death rate.  (and that's going off of China's numbers, multiplied by 100, cause they're liars.  (~5000*100)/1439323776=.000034.)

Or, do we let this spread slightly less quickly through the population, also accept the ~.0034% death rate, and let's be honest our population and access to treatment exceeds that of the Chinese peasant, and run the risk of complete economic and social failure?  The government can only print so much money.

We aren't going to change that number by any significant amount.

 

I don't care what people say publicly, but if they are honest, I seriously doubt there is more than a handful of people that are truly isolating themselves.  We were talking about this after work yesterday.  Each of us had interacted with about 4-5 people that day including our families.  How many did the other four that we interacted with, come in contact with?  We had a truck come in the afternoon, I'd shit if that person hadn't talked to 20 other people already.  Social distancing is just a feel good illusion, not reality.  Isolation is the only real thing that will work, but nobody is self sufficient enough to not have to run to the store, and the second you do that, you just fucked the whole premise.

You're only going to save a handful of lives to royally fuck the rest of the population.  Why?  What happened to the greater good?  "But Karl, what if that was you, or somebody you loved?"  Fine.  That's the fucking hand you're dealt some times.

 

Get back to work.

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Does anybody have any idea why we still have not implemented the kind of testing that was used successfully in Japan and S. Korea?  The original idea to do our own tests was a bad call, but it's been weeks since this was recognized.  The tests exist, and a very brief look at the epidemiological curves clearly show Japan and S. K. have had the best practices.

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Well you are wrong.  I can personally vouch for a shit load at my corp as all the engineers, CPU guys and everyone that owns a laptop has been self quarantining for at least 3 weeks (heavily suggested by corporate)as we were deemed crucial to keeping shit running through this shit.  If you are counting, that's at least 20,000 ish people around the country.   I have not had contact with anyone besides my wife for at least 2 weeks and weare working crazy hours.  Some are taking this seriously, some not so much.  Be in the seriously column please, because I want to see my mom and dad again...  wise up.......  

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36 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

That's the fucking hand you're dealt some times.

 

Get back to work.

. . .and so you go back to work.  But, you can't really follow the OSHA/CDC guidelines for workplaces, and honestly you don't care to.  Then someone on your crew gets it, but only has mild symptoms, but gets tested and tells you they have it.

Now what do you do?

If you follow the OSHA/CDC guidelines, you've got some tough choices to make.  That's fine, we all make tough choices.  If you don't follow the guidelines, let's say one of your other guys gets sick.  Really sick.  Dies.  Now you have a lawsuit on your hands, which could put you out of business.

That's what we're grappling with right now, and fortunately management is adhering to the guidelines as best we can, and we're still producing goods.

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4 minutes ago, FoolOnTheHill said:

Does anybody have any idea why we still have not implemented the kind of testing that was used successfully in Japan and S. Korea?  The original idea to do our own tests was a bad call, but it's been weeks since this was recognized.  The tests exist, and a very brief look at the epidemiological curves clearly show Japan and S. K. have had the best practices.

Fake news we are winning bigley.  

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52 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

=  We were talking about this after work yesterday.  Each of us had interacted with about 4-5 people that day including our families.  How many did the other four that we interacted with, come in contact with? 

good luck with that

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4 hours ago, Hatin' life said:

If you infect all 30 people on that beach, the  death rate wouldn't fill A bag, much less bags in the plural.

Are you actively trying to take the "Chief Stupid" title from JerKZ?

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4 hours ago, mad said:

By they infect at least 3 more each and those infect 3 more....... you can see where I’m going with this can’t you? 

It's not like you to ask stupid questions Mad.

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32 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

 

good luck with that

Good luck with what?  I'm statistically more likely to die from just about anything else.

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2 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

You’re still posting, so I guess that has been proven wrong. 

You should put some ointment on that rash on your ass.

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2 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Are you actively trying to take the "Chief Stupid" title from JerKZ?

Is name calling the limit of your communication abilities?

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Looks like those Chinese Nationals in the Vancouver BC airport who were wearing the 5 gal. water bottles on their heads are now the smart ones.

I didn't see that coming.

Well done for tiger-mom taking action. In her head I imagine her saying " Screw all you who think I look funny, I'm taking care of business without harming anyone else.  Fashion-be-damned."

 

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17 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

Is name calling the limit of your communication abilities?

With uncomprehending morons?

Yes.

I'm not about to waste my time trying to fix stupid.

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Just now, SloopJonB said:

With uncomprehending morons?

Yes.

I'm not about to waste my time trying to fix stupid.

Haha.  You are a shining example of why I hate people.  Closed mind and shallow values.

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17 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

Good luck with what?  I'm statistically more likely to die from just about anything else.

 

Then you should be fine.  Move on about your business and spend as much time as you can with as many like-minded folks as you can find.

Question though: Is the theory that it's a hoax or that you'll either be dead or immune in a few weeks?

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4 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

With uncomprehending morons?

Yes.

I'm not about to waste my time trying to fix stupid.

JackstandJonB is quite secure in his insecurity 

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

 

Then you should be fine.  Move on about your business and spend as much time as you can with as many like-minded folks as you can find.

Question though: Is the theory that it's a hoax or that you'll either be dead or immune in a few weeks?

 

It's not a hoax.  It's real, but it's marginally more significant than the flu.  I'm more concerned about an asteroid, Yellowstone, or a solar flare than covid.  I don't lose any sleep over those either.

I do think those that sell space to the advertising whores are doing their best to blow shit out of proportion though.

There's overlap too. Sickness wipes out the old and weak on the regular.  How many of those will have either died from this virus or another in more or less the same timeframe?

The one thing, I think, this has taught people, or they have learned, is just how many people get sick and die every single year.  I knew the regular flu killed a shit load of people, but not 650,000 each year.  I didn't give a shit about them, and neither did anyone else.  So why the hubbub now?

I'm either immune or I am not, and vaccinations likely won't be a reality for this until we've already gone road warrior.  80% of the population I once read is going to catch this, with symptoms ranging from nothing to dead.  And it hasn't been killing many.

 

I could be completely wrong, and this will bottleneck the population down to a less than 100k.  Is that a bad thing?  It's happened numerous times before, and it will happen again.  Either way, it is what it is and I've got a mortgage to pay.

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1 hour ago, SloopJonB said:

It's not like you to ask stupid questions Mad.

I was being generous and giving him the chance to try and get his head around the whole infection thing........ it was a failure and a waste of time obviously. 

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6 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

Fuck anybody else, I don’t care if I live, die or infect innocents along the way  

Fixed for brevity. Have a nice day. 

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5 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Please post pics of your gatherings with your like-minded friends and family.

Clean, what's the outcome of this?  Seriously.  Worst case scenario.  What happens?

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5 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

Covid 19 virus.

What's the worst case outcome?

The worst case outcome with zero mitigation?  10-15% mortality worldwide and a nuclear war between china and the US.

 

 

 

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Hadn't heard the nuclear war angle yet.  Not sure that's a likely outcome, but it's possible.  I'd think civil war would be more likely, but I'm not basing that on anything.

What brings you to the billion deaths number?  Nothing I've read heard supports that.

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1 minute ago, Hatin' life said:

 

What brings you to the billion deaths number? 

nuclear winter, or the fact that Covid-19 has around the same mortality rate as spanish flu if you don't have hospitals that can treat it.  oh yeah, and the human population is many times denser than it was in 1917.

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6 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

nuclear winter, or the fact that Covid-19 has around the same mortality rate as spanish flu if you don't have hospitals that can treat it.  oh yeah, and the human population is many times denser than it was in 1917.

Lot of things to weigh in, comparing humans of today to humans of a century ago.

We probably aren't healthier, but we do live longer.  And we certainly have better access to medicine and healthcare than we did 100 years ago.  Sanitation alone, and access to clean water aren't even comparable.  As is cleanliness in general.

 

What instigates the nuclear option?  Who goes first and why?

 

I'm trying to understand others concerns.

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1 minute ago, Hatin' life said:

Lot of things to weigh in, comparing humans of today to humans of a century ago.

We probably aren't healthier, but we do live longer.  And we certainly have better access to medicine and healthcare than we did 100 years ago.  Sanitation alone, and access to clean water aren't even comparable.  As is cleanliness in general.

 

What instigates the nuclear option?  Who goes first and why?

 

I'm trying to understand others concerns.

You asked for a worst-case scenario.  I am sure you can come up with one that includes a war between China and the US.  The details don't matter much.

here are the main "others' concerns": Zero mitigation inevitably - every time so far - leads to huge numbers of hospitalizations, which increases the mortality rate of this bug by anywhere from 10x to 100 times, which leads to the 10% or greater mortality rate found in places like Iran and Lombardy. 

10% of the earth is 750M dead, or more people than have died in all wars in human history.  That's probably the worst case without a nuclear war, though that number of dead would add its own problems to the mix: failure of basic sanitation resulting in dysentery epidemics, that kind of thing.

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I also want you to come up with a best case scenario.

Don't take it lightly, give it a moment and some thought.

 

Why?  Because at heart I'm a pessimist.  I don't know who said it, but the nice thing about being a pessimist is you are either pleasantly surprised or right. When you find the extremes, the truth is usually in the middle.

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Just now, Hatin' life said:

I also want you to come up with a best case scenario.

Don't take it lightly, give it a moment and some thought.

 

Why?  Because at heart I'm a pessimist.  I don't know who said it, but the nice thing about being a pessimist is you are either pleasantly surprised or right. When you find the extremes, the truth is usually in the middle.

If you are really a scientist (and not a fucking social scientist), you'll try to set out at least some assumptions for your 'best-case scenario' question.

with or without distancing?  with or without national stay-at-home orders?  with or without a miracle treatment?

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2 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

When you find the extremes, the truth is usually in the middle.

This is coming from a real scientist?

Any 'truth' that you find by picking a point between two extremes is just a guess.  

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12 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

We probably aren't healthier, but we do live longer. 

 

Not true, we are in general much healthier!  Since then we have eradicated certain illnesses, and/or have treatments and medications for others, that they didn't have.  For this reason, it is being discussed to lower the average body temp from 98.6.  100 years ago, this was probably correct, but now we are healthier, so our bodies aren't fighting off things like they did then.  Every morning when I take my temp before going to work, it's usually 97.4.  Also 100 years ago a helluva lot more people smoked than do today.

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29 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

I don't know who said it, but the nice thing about being a pessimist is you are either pleasantly surprised or right. When you find the extremes, the truth is usually in the middle.

it's best to expect the worst, because the worst is only half bad at best, and the best is no worse than expected.

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27 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

This is coming from a real scientist?

Any 'truth' that you find by picking a point between two extremes is just a guess.  

But the point many people are missing is that all of this is just a guess.  Sometimes an educated guess, but a guess nonetheless.  I've quoted this before, but it's really important to understand that "all models are bad.  some are useful."

All the of the numbers being thrown around (IHME, WHO, Imperial College) are based on modeling.  None of those models will get the number exactly correct.  We also have to know what assumptions were used in constructing the models.  For example, Imperial College recently produced new numbers, based on data that has surfaced since social distancing went into effect.  Those new numbers don't negate the old ones, it's just that the new numbers have different information and assumptions behind them.

So, when you see a graph (as was recently trotted out by the US Administration) that has a line with a *very wide* shaded in area around it, that shaded-in area represents the 95% confidence (or whatever their number is, they didn't say) level of that line predicted by that model.  The number that ends up being reality has a 95% chance of falling within the range predicted by the model.

Unfortunately, we won't know which model was best until this is all over.  So, between 100k and 2.2M dead in the US.

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There will always be those in our society who are not going to comply because they don't want to be inconvenienced and some of the will even convince themselves they are right an everyone else is wrong. Some will value their expertise and education as a grocery clerk, plumber or businessman above that of those who have made their entire adult lives about the study and research of epidemiology, diseases, and public health. If they can find it, they will also hang onto the rare contrary opinion of some outlier who is seemingly an expert. We will always have those folks and we will have to carry their water. The key to success will be how many of those there are. If most of us lean into the effort we'll likely get through in spite of those who won't help and construct any number of reasons why their position is superior. 

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13 minutes ago, Point Break said:

There will always be those in our society who are not going to comply because they don't want to be inconvenienced and some of the will even convince themselves they are right an everyone else is wrong. Some will value their expertise and education as a grocery clerk, plumber or businessman above that of those who have made their entire adult lives about the study and research of epidemiology, diseases, and public health. If they can find it, they will also hang onto the rare contrary opinion of someone who is seemingly an expert. We will always have those folks and we will have to carry their water. The key to success will be how many of those there are. If most of us lean into the effort we'll likely get through in spite of those who won't help and construct any number of reasons why their position is superior. 

Thanks PB, there’s not much you can add to that.  
 

apart from just not engage with them........ my mistake and lesson learned. 

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

If you are really a scientist (and not a fucking social scientist), you'll try to set out at least some assumptions for your 'best-case scenario' question.

with or without distancing?  with or without national stay-at-home orders?  with or without a miracle treatment?

I don't want my best case scenario.  I want yours.  lol. Be creative and get back to me.  Since you insist, your parameters are reality, and sending people to Mars is not feasible.

 

I'm not a scientist.  I'm the scum of the earth construction worker with a ninth grade education.  But I do know that reality sits between the extremes of the options.  It's not a guess, it's establishing a boundary.  You work your way in from there.

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Just sitting around thinking. Once this social distancing is over there's going to be a lot of horney chicks out on the prowl.  If I wasn't such an old fuck I'd be out looking for some strange every night. Now where are my little blue pills. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Cool.  What do you mean by the word 'best'?  

 

Your interpretation of what you view would be the most positive outcome.

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My view of 'the most positive outcome' would be zero deaths, a world that is prepared for the next pandemic, increased transparency in all government, and an economy that grows at a sustainable rate.  

How's that?

 

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

My view of 'the most positive outcome' would be zero deaths, a world that is prepared for the next pandemic, increased transparency in all government, and an economy that grows at a sustainable rate.  

How's that?

 

Premature and lacking creativity.  I've either overestimated you or you aren't willing to part your boredom with a mental exercise.

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19 minutes ago, Hatin' life said:

Premature and lacking creativity.  I've either overestimated you or you aren't willing to part your boredom with a mental exercise.

garbage in, garbage out.

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13 minutes ago, blunderfull said:

Jack Dorsey pledges $1 billion to Covid efforts.   25% of his wealth.   Wow.

So he'll be down to his last $3 billion. :D

That extraordinary level of generosity still doesn't excuse him creating Twitter.

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10 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

So he'll be down to his last $3 billion. :D

That extraordinary level of generosity still doesn't excuse him creating Twitter.

Yea, this move will get worked over from ten different directions.  

Mega-level Virtue-signalling?

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

garbage in, garbage out.

You're no fun.

 

For those of you who are trapped at home, how do you feel about the anti-vaxxers?

Are you as righteous and condescending to them as well?  Do you feign superiority while tilting at windmills?

Not vaccinating could easily be debated as being more dangerous as there's some nasty shit being held at bay buy vaccines.  One mutation you're in deep dookie.

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1 hour ago, Hatin' life said:

 

For those of you who are trapped at home, how do you feel about the anti-vaxxers?

 

I don't call them anti vaxxers I call them Pro Diseases

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It looks like the NZ Government might be "flattening the curve" but they have some systems in place when come out the other side.

NZ GOVERNMENT SYSTEMS ARE IN PLACE


Due to the current financial situation caused by the Corona Virus and slowdown in the economy, the Government has decided to implement a scheme to put workers of 50 years of age and above on early, mandatory retirement, thus creating jobs and reducing unemployment.
This scheme will be known as RAPE (Retire Aged People Early). Persons selected to be RAPED can apply to the Government to be considered for the SHAFT program (Special Help After Forced Termination).
Persons who have been RAPED and SHAFTED will be reviewed under the SCREW program (System Covering Retired-Early Workers).
A person may be RAPED once, SHAFTED twice and SCREWED as many times as the Government deems appropriate.
Persons who have been RAPED could get AIDS (Additional Income for
Dependents & Spouse) or HERPES (Half Earnings for Retired Personnel Early
Severance).
Obviously persons who have AIDS or HERPES will not be SHAFTED or SCREWED any further by the Government.
Persons who are not RAPED and are staying on will receive as much SHIT
(Special High Intensity Training) as possible. The Government has always
prided themselves on the amount of SHIT they give our citizens.
Should you feel that you do not receive enough SHIT, please bring this to
the attention of your TD, who has been trained to give you all the SHIT you can handle.

 

 

 

 

;):lol::lol:

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10 hours ago, Hatin' life said:

I'm not a scientist.  I'm the scum of the earth construction worker with a ninth grade education. 

Now there's a surprise.

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New law here on the Emerald Isle.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coronavirus-sweeping-garda-powers-take-effect-despite-cabinet-divisions-1.4223513

The law allows that a person who refuses to comply with an instruction of a garda who is seeking to impose social distancing rules, is guilty of an offence that can lead to a prison sentence of up to six months.

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1 hour ago, Black Sox said:

New law here on the Emerald Isle.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coronavirus-sweeping-garda-powers-take-effect-despite-cabinet-divisions-1.4223513

The law allows that a person who refuses to comply with an instruction of a garda who is seeking to impose social distancing rules, is guilty of an offence that can lead to a prison sentence of up to six months.

Good, the UK could do with that as well....... the next jogger/runner that’s goes past right next to me is going to get there fucking head removed! 

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Good job China! Only 3,333 deaths out of 83.783 cases.

Man, how do they achieve such a low number, I mean being the unfortunate launching pad of the virus and all?

nCoV2019.live

 

/s

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18 minutes ago, hobot said:

Man, how do they achieve such a low number, I mean being the unfortunate launching pad of the virus and all?

lock down and social isolation 

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3 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Now there's a surprise.

FYI

You think you're insulting, but you're not capable of that.  You're ill prepared.  One would have to value your opinion beforehand.

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13 hours ago, Blue Crab said:

Some people: 

 

Can’t fucking believe that places like that are allowed to be open in the current state of the infection rate! 
 

That guys probably been doing that for years as well!

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1 hour ago, mad said:

Can’t fucking believe that places like that are allowed to be open in the current state of the infection rate! 
 

That guys probably been doing that for years as well!

Of course, that was filmed and initially published about  a year ago. Happened in Chicago.  
 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Of course, that was filmed and initially published about  a year ago. Happened in Chicago.  
 

 

 

Well at least I was correct on the second part of my post!! 
 

That’s exactly why I’ve avoided places like that for years. 

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Just now, mad said:

Well at least I was correct on the second part of my post!! 
 

That’s exactly why I’ve avoided places like that for years. 

Place across town from us has a reputation for never ending soup. Supposedly gets put away at night, topped off and back out the next morning. Don’t rinse, but repeat.
 

30 years ago, we had an all you can eat seafood place a few miles from where we lived.  Great prices and decent tasting food,  got shut down when a disgruntled employee reported them for recycling leftovers from customers’ plates.  

Haven’t been to an all you can eat place since.......

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Marinatrix447 said:

"Researchers in Shanghai "

I had read somewhere that much of the CV testing in China was unreliable ...hopefully the ONE thing the rest of the world can learn from this is that China in completely unreliable and will lie ,steal and cheat whenever possible or serves their interests....today's leaders of the CCP were as young men  on the front of Mao's,  Great Leap Forward , The Cultural Revolution and the Long March...their complete beings  are still in the mindset of that era. 

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2 hours ago, Innocent Bystander said:

Place across town from us has a reputation for never ending soup. Supposedly gets put away at night, topped off and back out the next morning. Don’t rinse, but repeat.
 

30 years ago, we had an all you can eat seafood place a few miles from where we lived.  Great prices and decent tasting food,  got shut down when a disgruntled employee reported them for recycling leftovers from customers’ plates.  

Haven’t been to an all you can eat place since.......

 

 

 

I have not eaten at a buffet etc in a lot of years. I saw a guy pick his nose absent mindedly and then grab a muffin from a stack with his hand. That was the proverbial “ah-ha” moment for me. No thanks.........certainly you can have a server do the same thing but less people = less chance....

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