Jump to content

US ranked #1 to best deal with a disease outbreak


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

No.

It doesn't.

Your jumped-to conclusion MAY be correct, but it certainly doesn't follow as a matter of fact nor of logic. There isn't enough information yet.

I bet you get halfway up a windward leg and often have no idea which way to go.  I’ve got great deductive reasoning.  I suspect that’s the reason we’ve not heard about long Covid wrt Delta vs Alpha.  The data is in the fact that no one is talking about it tells me it’s no worse and likely better.  With Omicron being a total bust wrt serious illness and death it’s fair to expect a coresponding decrease in the prevalence of long Covid.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 13.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Bus Driver

    1200

  • mikewof

    1120

  • Fakenews

    1113

  • Raz'r

    848

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

BTW, I gave Mikey a time out, which will be the same response anyone gets for calling the coronavirus response measures 'hysteria' or peddling misinformation that could hurt someone.

I'm day 9 of symptoms and still in the middle if it. Let me tell you,  getting a viral load from convience store handle much less than getting it from being in a maskless patients face coughing on you

It is not whether it offends, it is whether it is dangerous. Spreading false information about the dangers of a pandemic can kill people. Most forums have a ratio of between 10 and 100 lurkers to ever

Posted Images

1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

Models are saying there’s going to be a huge surge in cases with a crest in mid late Jan.  We will have more cases than ever before, but watch as the spread between the death curve and the case curve balloons.  So still not worried.

You're prognostication skills are for shit. You sound like TFG.


"It's Over!"

"Well, maybe not over, but no one will get sick!"

"Well, maybe folks are getting sick, but no one will die!"

to be continued....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

You're prognostication skills are for shit. You sound like TFG.


"It's Over!"

"Well, maybe not over, but no one will get sick!"

"Well, maybe folks are getting sick, but no one will die!"

to be continued....

Wut?
 

I called the corner in Feb.  Vaccines started pushing the cases down while many people were sheltering in place.  I banged the Delta crest to the day (Sept 2nd).  In October I called the the move from pandemic COVID to endemic COVID.   Back in the summer I also said respiratory viruses devolve  to become more transmissible but less deadly….

And voila Omicron.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fakenews said:

Also if you are vaccinated and boosted long Covid is not a significant risk.  So Not to worry about that.  I have zero fucks to give about willfully unvaxed people getting long COVID.

I won't edit what you wrote, because that's a dick move.  I don't do that.

But, I would suggest you edit all of you commentary for brevity by continually reposting your last sentence here, and leave off the last 7 words.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

I won't edit what you wrote, because that's a dick move.  I don't do that.

But, I would suggest you edit all of you commentary for brevity by continually reposting your last sentence here, and leave off the last 7 words.

That wouldn’t be honest of me.  So no.

Link to post
Share on other sites

In your rush to be first to call it, you miss important steps. Like gathering of relevant (you would probably call them redundant from your narrow viewpoint) facts. Of course, you're limited by neither scientific method, nor medical liability.

We all know that you're the smartest person you know. Get over it.

 

As to the pandemic/endemic categorization: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/covid-is-not-endemic-yet-and-may-not-be-for-a-long-time/620914/

As to my sailing skills, I don't try to apply my ability to call tactics to pandemics.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

In your rush to be first to call it, you miss important steps. Like gathering of relevant (you would probably call them redundant from your narrow viewpoint) facts. Of course, you're limited by neither scientific method, nor medical liability.

We all know that you're the smartest person you know. Get over it.

 

As to the pandemic/endemic categorization: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/covid-is-not-endemic-yet-and-may-not-be-for-a-long-time/620914/

As to my sailing skills, I don't try to apply my ability to call tactics to pandemics.

Endemic in the US and Europe.  Maybe not in Asia.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Danceswithoctopus said:

Not according to my cite.

Apparently there are epidemiologists out there who are silly enough to think they're smarter than our own FakeDoctor.

Imagine.

There are alway some outliers.  Gottlieb, Fauci and the head of NIH disagree.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

So the short answer is: no.

(You do understand that your credibility here in this thread is very not good.)

You are an extremely lazy person.  My credibility is not to be questioned.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/dr-scott-gottlieb-expects-coronavirus-to-be-an-endemic-virus-in-us-after-delta-surge.html

some May quibble and say it’s not endemic because it’s disrupting daily life (unvaxed dying, NFL games missing players etc) but that’s playing cutsie.  Fauci has held (I think he no longer does) that he won’t be comfortable till cases hit 10,000 per day but that’s not going to happen for a long time.  As long as vaxed people have good outcomes life goes on as usual.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Deleted for smart people who have Fake on ignore

You are an extremely sloppy person. Perhaps that's why you lack credibility.

Your link simply says that the pandemic is EXPECTED TO become endemic.

You insist that it IS endemic.

And that, Gaston, is at the root of your credibility problem. You can't seem to tell the difference between present and future tense any more than you can tell the difference between your opinions and actual facts.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

You are an extremely sloppy person. Perhaps that's why you lack credibility.

Your link simply says that the pandemic is EXPECTED TO become endemic.

You insist that it IS endemic.

And that, Gaston, is at the root of your credibility problem. You can't seem to tell the difference between present and future tense any more than you can tell the difference between your opinions and actual facts.

An inability to admit when wrong is also noteworthy.

Gator is the humblest person on these boards.  Ask him.  He'll tell you.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Models are saying there’s going to be a huge surge in cases with a crest in mid late Jan.  We will have more cases than ever before, but watch as the spread between the death curve and the case curve balloons.  So still not worried.

You might be right.

I hope you're right.

I even suspect you're right.

But I'm not betting my life or the life of my family on that. I'm going to wait for the data. And I'm going to do everything I can to reduce community spread until we get solid data.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Nice! said:

You might be right.

I hope you're right.

I even suspect you're right.

But I'm not betting my life or the life of my family on that. I'm going to wait for the data. And I'm going to do everything I can to reduce community spread until we get solid data.

Thank you. If more people adopted that attitude, we could shorten the duration. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

In your rush to be first to call it, you miss important steps. Like gathering of relevant (you would probably call them redundant from your narrow viewpoint) facts. Of course, you're limited by neither scientific method, nor medical liability.

We all know that you're the smartest person you know. Get over it.

 

As to the pandemic/endemic categorization: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/covid-is-not-endemic-yet-and-may-not-be-for-a-long-time/620914/

As to my sailing skills, I don't try to apply my ability to call tactics to pandemics.

Since you like the Atlantic as a source for Covid stories (I do to they are well written and thought provoking).

https://www.mediaite.com/news/the-atlantic-takes-aim-at-cdcs-case-for-masks-in-schools-based-on-very-shaky-science/

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Meanwhile in South Africa

https://www.thedailybeast.com/omicron-ground-zero-in-south-africa-has-already-peaked?ref=home

Phaahla told reporters that the country’s hospital admission rate of COVID patients “fell 90 percent in the second week of the current infection wave driven by the Omicron variant” as compared to the second week of the Delta wave. Boiling down the good-for-a-global-pandemic news further, he said that only 1.7 percent of all Omicron cases are even hospitalized, compared to 19 percent of Delta cases earlier in the year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, time for some grades.   We have little to be proud of.

Deposed President Trump:  

  • Early days:   F.   Even before the virus arrived he had weakened US preparedness, for example by not maintaining ventilators.   He dismissed what he privately admitted to being a real threat, once it happened.   He lied his sorry ass off.   His travel ban was his only actual positive action in the early days.   It was a stop gap that didn't include US citizens and didn't include all nations.    It was an appropriate delaying tactic, done half assed.   He then bought non functioning ventilators from his political patron, Putin.   His administrations inept competition with hospitals trying to buy emergency supplies certainly made things worse on a local level.   
  • Mid Pandemic:  D -  His vaccine program gets a B, one of his few passing grades.  He did ignore (predictably) small companies without lobbying dollars.   His repeating stories of fake cures and bogus vaccine concerns was criminal malpractice.  HIs complete failure to engage in basic biosecurity was a F.    His lying about his exposure status during a Presidential debate was callus public endangerment for personal gain.       
  • Emergency spending during the often questionable local shutdowns were necessary to avoid complete recession, but the free cash fed inflation. 
  • Outcome:  He caused more people to die then necessary, but the virus would have entered the US and would have reached every town eventually, whatever he did.    The captain did most everything wrong and lied repeatedly, but the ship would have sunk either way and there never were enough life boats.   

US Medical and Public Health System:   C

  • Early days:   F.   the testing kit fiasco should not be forgiven, in a country that claims to be technologically competent.   Only testing people with a travel history allowed the virus to gain a foothold while we denied we had it.   
  • Public Health system: C-.  Our reliance on local control limits the ability of the Feds to manage a crises.  Politicians often treat their health officials as publicity machines, instead of leaders of a lifesaving system.
  • Governors' shutdowns were only beneficial in preventing hospital overcapacity.   They accomplished nothing else.   Everybody gets it eventually.  By slowing the curve we did allow most critical people to get oxygen and many got an opportunity for a vaccine.    Treatments improved.   CoViD vacations were mostly just that, free time off requiring massive inflation causing stimulus spending to overcome the immediate pain.   Their slight justification in the early days was the CDC incompetence in developing and distributing a test.
  • Mass vaccine clinics in parking lots or abandoned shopping malls were often well done and creative, allowing them to squeak by with a pass.  
  •  Hospitals:   C.   Hospitals were throwing away outdated masks and other PPE as normal a week or two before they were begging for emergency supplies, because it was the rules.   They kept inventory and staffing as low as possible, to maximize corporate bonuses.   They were not well situated like the German medical system.   Individual people worked their asses off.  The system is pathetic.

President Biden:   C-  He inherited a mess and his primary success has been not personally spreading lies or making things worse.   Its almost like he isn't there at all.  

  • Mid Pandemic:  I am unsure if political pressure led to confused messaging of the CDC and their infamous 'all clear for vaccinated people just before the delta variant.   This sudden announcement angered me at the time and has proven somewhere between ill advised and malpractice.
  • He really couldn't do much from a public health perspective, since that's local politics not medicine.
  • His continuation of government free cash has almost certainly contributed to our current high inflation.
  • Again, it isn't clear to what extent our reliance in mediocre vaccines from major companies instead of new vaccines coming from niche players is political and how much is simply government corruption, but the status quo isn't very good.    You get sick virtually as often if vaccinated.  You spread disease if vaccinated.  You die statistically less often, but the number of deaths and hospitalizations is low enough the benefit isn't visible in the sample size of individual acquaintances.  

Republicans:   Is expulsion possible?   An F is too high.   This is the lasting legacy of our outbreak.  Several Republicans lie about the storm on the horizon so they could make money off insider trading.   Then things got really crazy with misinformation and protest violations of emergency public health measures.   I'm willing to bet there are virtually no new applicants for Public Health masters programs.   Many career experts on a state or county level quit, due to political abuse.   Others lied for their political masters.    No improvements of our flawed system have been enacted.  We did not learn from our mistakes, we doubled down on stupid.   Republicans have eliminated all ability to react next time without waiting for political debate.   A future fast moving outbreak will be all but impossible to contain or control.   The next one will be many times worse. 

Presidents Bush and Biden both get a B: for FEMA stockpiles that Trump failed to maintain; hospital regulations improving ventilation; surveillance in China and elsewhere around the world; and diversion of some defense spending after 911 to bioterrorism and therefore biosecurity.   This may be the only B Bush the lessor earned in his life.   :)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember those days when COVID first exploded onto the scene and all the things we knew about it that turned out to be not so true?

Constantly disinfecting contact surfaces?

Wiping down groceries and packages from the store?

We are still learning.  Especially when it comes to Omicron - 

UPDATE 1-Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

Link to post
Share on other sites

From the files of Fuck Around and Find Out, Southwest CEO testified to Senate committee, questioning benefits of masks on planes, subsequently tests positive for CoViD 19. Hilarity ensues. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/southwest-ceo-tests-positive-covid-19-after-senate-hearing-airline-2021-12-17/

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bus Driver said:

Remember those days when COVID first exploded onto the scene and all the things we knew about it that turned out to be not so true?

Constantly disinfecting contact surfaces?

Wiping down groceries and packages from the store?

We are still learning.  Especially when it comes to Omicron - 

UPDATE 1-Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

We are still washing fruit and veg when it comes into the house, as well as wiping down the tops of cans. Those things now strike me as being just basically smart about what is going into your body. We'll probably never stop.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bus Driver said:

Remember those days when COVID first exploded onto the scene and all the things we knew about it that turned out to be not so true?

Constantly disinfecting contact surfaces?

Wiping down groceries and packages from the store?

We are still learning.  Especially when it comes to Omicron - 

UPDATE 1-Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

I remember that. It  was utter BS and people knew it early on but promulgated the nonsense.  A local example was when they closed the gyms for about a month early on.  People organically gathered to work out outdoors.  Tampa has the worlds longest contiguous sidewalk along the bay with exercise stations along the way.  It became a mini Muscle Beach.  Outdoors is safe no? (YES).  Well despite the fact that it was Known that the virus couldn’t stand up to heat and UV rays (deadl in seconds) the city decided to close the outdoor stations.  So everyone went back to the gym as soon as it opened. Some wore masks at first but that was untenable.  The outdoor equipment wasn’t put back till September.  Deeply silly.    As for wiping down groceries?
 

LOL. No.

 

Didn’t click the link but that study is trash.  There’s nothing to study yet except in South Africa, and you all saw the data I posted slightly up thread.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bus Driver said:

Remember those days when COVID first exploded onto the scene and all the things we knew about it that turned out to be not so true?

Constantly disinfecting contact surfaces?

Wiping down groceries and packages from the store?

We are still learning.  Especially when it comes to Omicron - 

UPDATE 1-Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

 The protection afforded by past infection against reinfection with Omicron may be as low as 19%, Imperial College (ICL) said in a statement, noting that the study had not yet been peer reviewed.   Chilling quote from your source.   As well as the poor protection 2 weeks after Pfizer vacs.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Lark said:

 The protection afforded by past infection against reinfection with Omicron may be as low as 19%, Imperial College (ICL) said in a statement, noting that the study had not yet been peer reviewed.   Chilling quote from your source.   As well as the poor protection 2 weeks after Pfizer vacs.  

Not chilling at all, could even be fortuitous if the outcome is asymptomatic infection or very minor illness.  We know this to be true from the data in SA so far.  Omicron may be a threat to unvaxed people but not vaxed and boosted.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Fakenews said:

Not chilling at all, could even be fortuitous if the outcome is asymptomatic infection or very minor illness.  We know this to be true from the data in SA so far.  Omicron may be a threat to unvaxed people but not vaxed and boosted.

I think the bottom line is we don't know.  We have preliminary reports, and everybody is looking at the news with personal blinders.  Most of us are tired of this and want to get on with existence.   We desperately want this next version to be a bad cold that rarely needs oxygen and produces lasting immunity.   We don't want any more long haulers.  In medicine wishes never influence reality.

Of course a few want reality fit their political sunglasses: either the virus is disappearing since the entire world faked their family members dying to make Trump look bad before an election, or everybody without a vaccine needs to die a horrible death unless they wear a mask to prove Gym Jordan is a moran.   The reality so far has been somewhere in the middle.   Most idiots get better, seeming to prove idiocy is wise.  Some very cautious people die or suffer huge consequences despite following best medical advice.   Statistics tell the truth, if you play enough hands.    Like a hot table in Vegas, many people just seem lucky or unlucky.    'The loosing card I'll someday lay.'  For some it happens on the first hand.   Survivors get to wash, rinse and repeat, working short handed and tired.

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Lark said:

I think the bottom line is we don't know.  We have preliminary reports, and everybody is looking at the news with personal blinders.  Most of us are tired of this and want to get on with existence.   We desperately want this next version to be a bad cold that rarely needs oxygen and produces lasting immunity.   We don't want any more long haulers.  In medicine wishes never influence reality.

Of course a few want reality fit their political sunglasses: either the virus is disappearing since the entire world faked their family members dying to make Trump look bad before an election, or everybody without a vaccine needs to die a horrible death unless they wear a mask to prove Gym Jordan is a moran.   The reality so far has been somewhere in the middle.   Most idiots get better, seeming to prove idiocy is wise.  Some very cautious people die or suffer huge consequences despite following best medical advice.   Statistics tell the truth, if you play enough hands.    Like a hot table in Vegas, many people just seem lucky or unlucky.    'The loosing card I'll someday lay.'  For some it happens on the first hand.   Survivors get to wash, rinse and repeat, working short handed and tired.

Look I get that everyone has different level of comfort with risk.  Here’s the thing because so many people won’t get vaxed this virus is going to kick around for a while.  For the foreseeable future we are going to  be having cold and COVID season,  doesn’t mater what we do.  Wearing masks won’t end this,  social distancing won’t end this shut downs won’t end this.    The only fix is to get vaxed and boosted or frankly be unvaxed and either die or recover.    If we repeat that cycle enough it will eventually be noise in the system.  Sure some vulnerable people are going to die, 50k a year die from the flu every year.  The difference?  There an effective vax to keep you alive AND if you are stupid enough not to get vaxed there’s an anti viral that almost definitely will keep you alive.  So if you want to socially distance fine, if you want to wear a mask fine.  If not fine too.  We are moving on.  I’m done with Covid.

Edit to say I feel bad for healthcare workers the unvaxed are making their live very very difficult.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I”m reminded of the line from Joe Walsh “life of illusion”.  Continual crisis.  We are in a state of continual crisis.  Example is NFL game being canceled, no Rockettes show, no Christmas parties, shut down of Cornell first case of Omicron, first death from Omicron.  It goes on and on and on. There’s always something else.   We need to break this cycle.

Edit that’s a great song lyrics below

Sometimes, I can't help the feeling that I'm
Living a life of illusion
And oh, why can't we let it be
And see through the hole in this wall of confusion
I just can't help the feeling, I'm living a life of illusion
Pow! Right between the eyes
Oh, how nature loves her little surprises
Wow, it all seems so logical now
It's just one of her better disguises
And it comes with no warning, nature loves her little surprises
Continual crisis
Hey, don't you know it's a waste of your day
Caught up in endless solutions
That have no meaning
Just another hunch
Based upon jumping conclusions
Caught up in endless solutions
Backed up against a wall of confusion
Living a life of illusion

Supposedly this is about the death of his daughter in 74

Link to post
Share on other sites

Good news and bad news!  Omicron is probably going to supplant Delta in the next two weeks. That’s good news because Omicron is super less lethal than Delta.  One of the Dr.s on TV (I wasn’t looking but could have been Fauci) said we will have more than 1M test positive a day (sounds a little high, can we even test 1M per day?).  That’s bad news right?  Not necessarily!  Death counts could actually go down as we say goodbye to Delta. However an already strained health system is going to get more so.  But!  If we are hitting 1M cases a day almost everyone will be infected by some variant or have protection via vaccination or super immune like myself. So good!
 

Its complicated.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

Good news and bad news!  Omicron is probably going to supplant Delta in the next two weeks. That’s good news because Omicron is super less lethal than Delta.  One of the Dr.s on TV (I wasn’t looking but could have been Fauci) said we will have more than 1M test positive a day (sounds a little high, can we even test 1M per day?).  That’s bad news right?  Not necessarily!  Death counts could actually go down as we say goodbye to Delta. However an already strained health system is going to get more so.  But!  If we are hitting 1M cases a day almost everyone will be infected by some variant or have protection via vaccination or super immune like myself. So good!
 

Its complicated.

The R number and the hospitalization rate is key.

If Omicron is twice as infectious but half as virulent (half the % of contracted cases end up in hospital) that doesn't mean what one might think it does. The infectious rate is exponential, while the hospitalization rate isn't. So while *your* particular chances of going to hospital are less (by half) if you happen to catch it, the hospitals will be overrun with cases. There will be plague-style people dying in their homes (only to be discovered by the smell some weeks and months later) and even on the street.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Nice! said:
21 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Good news and bad news!  Omicron is probably going to supplant Delta in the next two weeks. That’s good news because Omicron is super less lethal than Delta.  One of the Dr.s on TV (I wasn’t looking but could have been Fauci) said we will have more than 1M test positive a day (sounds a little high, can we even test 1M per day?).  That’s bad news right?  Not necessarily!  Death counts could actually go down as we say goodbye to Delta. However an already strained health system is going to get more so.  But!  If we are hitting 1M cases a day almost everyone will be infected by some variant or have protection via vaccination or super immune like myself. So good!
 

Its complicated.

The R number and the hospitalization rate is key.

If Omicron is twice as infectious but half as virulent (half the % of contracted cases end up in hospital) that doesn't mean what one might think it does. The infectious rate is exponential, while the hospitalization rate isn't. So while *your* particular chances of going to hospital are less (by half) if you happen to catch it, the hospitals will be overrun with cases. There will be plague-style people dying in their homes (only to be discovered by the smell some weeks and months later) and even on the street.

Omicron is already the predominant strain in the USA, according to tonight's news.

And FN's "super immunity" is not as good as he thinks; still WAY better than scratch.

Worse, Omicron does not appear to be conferring immunity at the same levels as other variants.

This game is far from over, I'm afraid.

- DSK

Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Nice! said:

The R number and the hospitalization rate is key.

If Omicron is twice as infectious but half as virulent (half the % of contracted cases end up in hospital) that doesn't mean what one might think it does. The infectious rate is exponential, while the hospitalization rate isn't. So while *your* particular chances of going to hospital are less (by half) if you happen to catch it, the hospitals will be overrun with cases. There will be plague-style people dying in their homes (only to be discovered by the smell some weeks and months later) and even on the street.

Oh come on.  There won’t be people dying in the streets! Or at home because they couldn’t be treated at the hospital.  They might not be able to get to the hospital or be fearful of going but not because they couldn’t be treated a la India.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Oh come on.  There won’t be people dying in the streets! Or at home because they couldn’t be treated at the hospital.  They might not be able to get to the hospital or be fearful of going but not because they couldn’t be treated a la India.

We don't actually know yet what the R numbers and virility (is that a word?) of Omicron is. In the hypothetical scenario I described (2x as transmissible, half as virulent) there certainly will be people dying in their homes and in the street.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Good news and bad news!  Omicron is probably going to supplant Delta in the next two weeks. That’s good news because Omicron is super less lethal than Delta.  One of the Dr.s on TV (I wasn’t looking but could have been Fauci) said we will have more than 1M test positive a day (sounds a little high, can we even test 1M per day?).  That’s bad news right?  Not necessarily!  Death counts could actually go down as we say goodbye to Delta. However an already strained health system is going to get more so.  But!  If we are hitting 1M cases a day almost everyone will be infected by some variant or have protection via vaccination or super immune like myself. So good!
 

Its complicated.

May have been the same guy I heard on NPR, yesterday morning.  He pointed out the population of South Africa and the US are nowhere near as similar as people suggest by predicting their outcomes will repeat, here.  Younger and largely infected previously from Delta.  Here, not so much.

He also takes care to point out even a tiny fraction of a much, much larger number means a lot of hospitalizations/possible deaths.

U.S. could see 1 million cases per day, warns departing NIH director Francis Collins

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fakenews said:

Oh come on.  There won’t be people dying in the streets! Or at home because they couldn’t be treated at the hospital.  They might not be able to get to the hospital or be fearful of going but not because they couldn’t be treated a la India.

The problem becomes hospitals overrun with patients,

but you knew that ...

right? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Good news.  It only took a few hours for that prediction to come true!
 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

I’m confused.    If omicron doesn’t provide good functional antibody levels after infection how will it replace delta?    It may make up more cases due to its greater R, but won’t Delta chug along in the background as before?   Meanwhile, if Delta doesn’t provide long term immunity against Omikron, did we just get a two for one deal?   

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Some news from UW’s Covid model.  3Billion are likely to be infected in the next two months.  Sounds like bad news except

UW researchers said the omicron hospitalization rate is between 4 and 10% that of delta and that the fatality rate is 1 to 3% that of delta.

I saw somewhere else  that it projects peak deaths will be around 2,800 in the US substantially less than last Jan and remarkable given the number of cases even if 70% of those cases will be asymptomatic.

This is exactly what we need to burn out the willingly unvaxed.  In March we will emerge with everyone exposed.

 

https://mynorthwest.com/3289906/uw-modelers-project-3-billion-new-covid-19-cases-by-february/

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Some news from UW’s Covid model.  3Billion are likely to be infected in the next two months.  Sounds like bad news except

UW researchers said the omicron hospitalization rate is between 4 and 10% that of delta and that the fatality rate is 1 to 3% that of delta.

I saw somewhere else  that it projects peak deaths will be around 2,800 in the US substantially less than last Jan and remarkable given the number of cases.

This is exactly what we need to burn out the willingly unvaxed.  In March we will emerge with everyone exposed.

 

https://mynorthwest.com/3289906/uw-modelers-project-3-billion-new-covid-19-cases-by-february/

 

10% of 30x infections = 3x the load on the medical system 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

10% of 30x infections = 3x the load on the medical system 

No doubt.  But still less death than last year.  Either the willingly unvaxed will die or acquire some protection from Covid.  In the end this will be a good thing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Fakenews said:
10 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

10% of 30x infections = 3x the load on the medical system 

No doubt.  But still less death than last year.  Either the willingly unvaxed will die or acquire some protection from Covid.  In the end this will be a good thing.

Except now the people dying will be the ones who can't get into hospitals for cancer treatments and car accidents because the wards are filled with sick antivaxxers.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Except now the people dying will be the ones who can't get into hospitals for cancer treatments and car accidents because the wards are filled with sick antivaxxers.

True,  those selfish pricks who won’t vax are going to impact healthcare accessibility for the rest of us.  However just going by the death numbers well be in a better place than last year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Fauci: 'Dangerous' to assume Omicron's apparent mildness means the end of the pandemic is in sight

“It appears that in the context of South Africa, there is a decrease in the severity compared to Delta, both in the relationship in the ratio between hospitalizations and the number of infections, the durations of hospital stays and the need for supplemental oxygen therapy,” Fauci said of findings from researchers in South Africa, where Omicron was first discovered.  

Fauci then referenced the findings of a separate study conducted by researchers in Scotland that “appears to validate and verify the data that are in South Africa.”

“This is good news. However, we must wait to see what happens in our own population, which has its own demographic considerations,” Fauci added. “I would point out that even if you have a diminution in severity, if you have a much larger number of individual cases, the fact that you have so many more cases might actually obviate the effect of it being less severe.”

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

Fauci: 'Dangerous' to assume Omicron's apparent mildness means the end of the pandemic is in sight

“It appears that in the context of South Africa, there is a decrease in the severity compared to Delta, both in the relationship in the ratio between hospitalizations and the number of infections, the durations of hospital stays and the need for supplemental oxygen therapy,” Fauci said of findings from researchers in South Africa, where Omicron was first discovered.  

Fauci then referenced the findings of a separate study conducted by researchers in Scotland that “appears to validate and verify the data that are in South Africa.”

“This is good news. However, we must wait to see what happens in our own population, which has its own demographic considerations,” Fauci added. “I would point out that even if you have a diminution in severity, if you have a much larger number of individual cases, the fact that you have so many more cases might actually obviate the effect of it being less severe.”

Fauci is more eloquent than I am, but maybe that’s not good for these folks. Maybe a

”hey, dumbshits, 10% hospitalized sounds great, but basically all of you unvaxxed are gonna get it. Do you want covid and that risk of death, or a covid vax? Cause you get to choose one of the 2.”

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Fauci is more eloquent than I am, but maybe that’s not good for these folks. Maybe a

”hey, dumbshits, 10% hospitalized sounds great, but basically all of you unvaxxed are gonna get it. Do you want covid and that risk of death, or a covid vax? Cause you get to choose one of the 2.”

If they choose Door Covid, I hope they have the good grace to suffer at home.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fakenews said:

This is interesting.  DEVCON making themselves useful.

Right, and I wonder why that story is not getting bigger play . . 

It could be a total game changer - in a good way for a change 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Bus Driver said:

Fauci: 'Dangerous' to assume Omicron's apparent mildness means the end of the pandemic is in sight

“It appears that in the context of South Africa, there is a decrease in the severity compared to Delta, both in the relationship in the ratio between hospitalizations and the number of infections, the durations of hospital stays and the need for supplemental oxygen therapy,” Fauci said of findings from researchers in South Africa, where Omicron was first discovered.  

Fauci then referenced the findings of a separate study conducted by researchers in Scotland that “appears to validate and verify the data that are in South Africa.”

“This is good news. However, we must wait to see what happens in our own population, which has its own demographic considerations,” Fauci added. “I would point out that even if you have a diminution in severity, if you have a much larger number of individual cases, the fact that you have so many more cases might actually obviate the effect of it being less severe.”

Average age in SA is 27 years old.

Average age in USA 37 years old.

Not to undermine the great Fauci, but low vaccination rates in countries with high prior infection, in younger people usually translate to less severe illness. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Uh oh.  Biden refused to ramp up testing back in October.  Now he is claiming no one could have expected this.  Less we forget Trump was getting bashed a month in, for lack of testing.
 

 Vanity Fair

The Biden Administration Rejected an October Proposal for “Free Rapid Tests for the Holidays”

Link to post
Share on other sites

To be fair to him now that everyone who wants a vaccine or booster can get one, testing becomes much less important given that and especially so now that the new variant is so mild wrt to serious illness.  If someone gets Omicron and passes it to a willingly unvaxed person they’re doing the world a favor.  We are now at the point where infection is not something of significance for a healthy vaxed person.  There should be no more cancelling of events, football games and the like.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, The Joker said:

Uh oh.  Biden refused to ramp up testing back in October.  Now he is claiming no one could have expected this.  Less we forget Trump was getting bashed a month in, for lack of testing.
 

 Vanity Fair

The Biden Administration Rejected an October Proposal for “Free Rapid Tests for the Holidays”

Why should the government be paying for this?

The government should be withdrawing funding for covid related issues.

The free market and personal responsibility are what made the US number 1 in disease management. The government needs to get out of the way!

Link to post
Share on other sites