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BTW, I gave Mikey a time out, which will be the same response anyone gets for calling the coronavirus response measures 'hysteria' or peddling misinformation that could hurt someone.

I'm day 9 of symptoms and still in the middle if it. Let me tell you,  getting a viral load from convience store handle much less than getting it from being in a maskless patients face coughing on you

It is not whether it offends, it is whether it is dangerous. Spreading false information about the dangers of a pandemic can kill people. Most forums have a ratio of between 10 and 100 lurkers to ever

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4 minutes ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

Dude! The word, "Dude" had a completely different meaning when I was in my 20s. (Billy rapped all night about a suicide . . .).

And we've all heard ad nauseum your self congratulations. You still have the dangerous characteristic of not knowing the limits of your knowledge. Maybe it's time for you to grow up and accept your limitations? (Because a man's got to know his limitations.)

I have a few but recognizing a waning pandemic isn’t one of them.  Neither is knowing that if you are vaxed, have no comorbidities and less than 75 you have little to fear from Covid.

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4 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

I have a few but recognizing a waning pandemic isn’t one of them.  Neither is knowing that if you are vaxed, have no comorbidities and less than 75 you have little to fear from Covid.

(Emphasis added) AND he backpedals again. From "zero" to fear, to "little" to fear.

Medical expertise is still not an area in which you excel. Arrogance, on the other hand . . . .

Dude.

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8 minutes ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

(Emphasis added) AND he backpedals again. From "zero" to fear, to "little" to fear.

Medical expertise is still not an area in which you excel. Arrogance, on the other hand . . . .

Dude.

See that’s your major malfunction, you don’t t need medical expertise to see the waning.  I personally have Zero to fear from Covid.  Peak health and super immune.

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11 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

I personally have Zero to fear from Covid.  Peak health and super immune.

You may not be much.  But, you are all you ever think about.

The very definition of "selfish prick".

I have a hunch it wouldn't even bother you, were you to be informed you infected someone in the gym and they died.

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1 minute ago, Bus Driver said:

You may not be much.  But, you are all you ever think about.

The very definition of "selfish prick".

I have a hunch it wouldn't even bother you, were you to be informed you infected someone in the gym and they died.

Your hunches are stupid.

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2 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

See that’s your major malfunction, you don’t t need medical expertise to see the waning.

I don't have medical expertise, and I don't claim to. That's why I consult with those who do when I have a medical question.

What I see is you jumping to a lot of partially informed conclusions that strike me as irresponsible based on the science, in order to boost your ego.

And I wouldn't consider that to be my major malfunction. I have others that are far worse.

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6 minutes ago, justsomeguy! said:

Disinformation.  More transmissible does not equal more lethal.   The Delta variant ha been instrumental in causing the pandemic to wane earlier 

 

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3 hours ago, Fakenews said:

viruses don’t evolve into more lethal variants

Viruses evolve. That is, in fact, what the Delta strain is, an evolution.

There are two mechanisms for this evolution, drift which is just bad virus gene copying and shift when two viruses enter a cell and both participate in the genetic copying.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

Period.

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10 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Viruses evolve. That is, in fact, what the Delta strain is, an evolution.

There are two mechanisms for this evolution, drift which is just bad virus gene copying and shift when two viruses enter a cell and both participate in the genetic copying.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

Period.

And it didn’t become deadlier.

Period.

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8 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

And it didn’t become deadlier.

Period.

So, the first Covid-19, with its particular deadliness and transmissability, just sprung from the ether, didn't evolve from a less deadly progenitor and had a card in it's little wallet that specified its maximum deadliness forever.  So after it multiplied and made little Covid babies, the evolution police could pull all it's little tykes over and check that they were meeting all of the approved fatality parameters.  Got it.  

These are very polite, law-abiding viruses we seem to have.  I wonder if the small pox virus evolved from something less deadly. 

Hey, didn't T-Rex evolve from something less deadly?  

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5 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

So, the first Covid-19, with its particular deadliness and transmissability, just sprung from the ether, didn't evolve from a less deadly progenitor and had a card in it's little wallet that specified its maximum deadliness forever.  So after it multiplied and made little Covid babies, the evolution police could pull all it's little tykes over and check that they were meeting all of the approved fatality parameters.  Got it.  

These are very polite, law-abiding viruses we seem to have.  I wonder if the small pox virus evolved from something less deadly. 

Hey, didn't T-Rex evolve from something less deadly?  

I wouldn’t call a virus that killed millions polite, but YMMV.  They do follow rules though and the first rule is “don’t kill everyone”.

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16 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

It’s hard to argue against bro science, bro. Viruses evolve. Period. They don’t ask permission. They don’t follow guidelines. They evolve.

 

3 hours ago, Fakenews said:

See that’s your major malfunction, you don’t t need medical expertise. . .

:blink:

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

I wouldn’t call a virus that killed millions polite, but YMMV.  They do follow rules though and the first rule is “don’t kill everyone”.

And of course viruses don't have the subtlety to distinguish between none, a few, some, a bunch, a lot, a bunch more, a metric shit ton and everyone. 

Nope, they never evolve to deadlier.  

It seems didn't T-Rexes evolve to kill everything either, just lots more.

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21 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

It’s hard to argue against bro science, bro. Viruses evolve. Period. They don’t ask permission. They don’t follow guidelines. They evolve.

I didn’t say they don’t.  Reading is fundamental.

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Actually you did. You said “viruses don’t evolve into more lethal variants”. I then pointed out that indeed viruses do evolve and that they don’t pay attention to any of your provisos.

I am done here.

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1 minute ago, Olsonist said:

Actually you did. You said “viruses don’t evolve into more lethal variants”. I then pointed out that indeed viruses do evolve and that they don’t pay attention to any of your provisos.

I am done here.

Why didn’t you italicize the entire sentence? Glad you are done, in the near future so will the pandemic.

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20 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Why didn’t you italicize the entire sentence? Glad you are done, in the near future so will the pandemic.

 

How "near"? Your prophecies seem megalomaniacal, but I suppose that's par for the course.

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22 minutes ago, justsomeguy! said:

 

How "near"? Your prophecies seem megalomaniacal, but I suppose that's par for the course.

I think we’ll be in the low 100’s death toll by this 22 winter (say mid to late Jan).  In the eyes of most (not Bus Driver!) that will be the end of the pandemic.

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23 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

I think we’ll be in the low 100’s death toll by this 22 winter (say mid to late Jan).  In the eyes of most (not Bus Driver!) that will be the end of the pandemic.

Floriduh or Americuh?

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7 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Floriduh or Americuh?

Don’t look now but I have  good news on that front.   The 7DMA of deaths in Florida crested Sept 2nd at 370 and is now down to 40.  Pretty much everyone here is vaxed, got Covid and vaxed, or just got Covid.  Fuel is running low here for the virus.  Some say we’re north of 85% of the population with some level of immunity to the virus.

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2 hours ago, Fakenews said:

I wouldn’t call a virus that killed millions polite, but YMMV.  They do follow rules though and the first rule is “don’t kill everyone”.

Your problem is that you like to talk about things that you don't know much about.

Viruses have indeed "killed everyone" many times in the past. Extinction of species is usually keyed to an environmental change but it has happened many many times due to virus. https://phys.org/news/2009-04-mass-extinctions-ancient-viruses-clues.html

Real science.

It's a thing

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Fakenews said:

I think we’ll be in the low 100’s death toll by this 22 winter (say mid to late Jan).  In the eyes of most (not Bus Driver!) that will be the end of the pandemic.

Four months. For posterity's sake, what if not? Will you acquiesce?

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Just now, justsomeguy! said:

Four months. For posterity's sake, what if not? Will you acquiesce?

Acquiesce to what?  I may be off a month, perhaps two,  but the pandemic is waning.  The combination of the vaxed and those who’ve been infected is crowding out the virus especially as it relates to bad outcomes.

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

 I may be off a month, perhaps two,  

Okay, 6 months. Will you acquiesce if your prognostications don't come true?

I hope to be here then.

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10 minutes ago, justsomeguy! said:

Okay, 6 months. Will you acquiesce if your prognostications don't come true?

I hope to be here then.

I hope you are here to!  However, when I’m proven correct I don’t expect I’ll get of tip of the hat.  

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#1 in getting people killed in the more industrialzed nations. Don't trust the numbers of e.g. Brazil, China or India, but still job well done MAGAs. Be the death with you ;)

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Good news on the therapeutic front.  We are fortunate to live in an era of modern medicine where the virus is being attacked on all fronts.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

A pill has cut the risk of hospitalization or death from Covid-19 by half in a study, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said Friday.

It would become the first oral medicine that fights viral infection for Covid-19 if approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization.
"At the interim analysis, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%," Merck said in a news release. "7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo treated patients (53,377). Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo."
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1 hour ago, Fakenews said:

Good news on the therapeutic front.  We are fortunate to live in an era of modern medicine where the virus is being attacked on all fronts.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

A pill has cut the risk of hospitalization or death from Covid-19 by half in a study, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said Friday.

It would become the first oral medicine that fights viral infection for Covid-19 if approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization.
"At the interim analysis, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%," Merck said in a news release. "7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo treated patients (53,377). Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo."

That is good news.

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12 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Don’t look now but I have  good news on that front.   The 7DMA of deaths in Florida crested Sept 2nd at 370 and is now down to 40.  Pretty much everyone here is vaxed, got Covid and vaxed, or just got Covid.  Fuel is running low here for the virus.  Some say we’re north of 85% of the population with some level of immunity to the virus.

Bullshit.

From the herald, in Florida, yesterday.

In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 272 deaths and 5,612 cases to the daily cumulative total, according to Herald analysis of CDC data. 

That's 272 new deaths per day, excluding those death certificates still not processed.

And at the current late reporting levels that adds another 50 percent or so.

 

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52 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

Bullshit.

From the herald, in Florida, yesterday.

In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 272 deaths and 5,612 cases to the daily cumulative total, according to Herald analysis of CDC data. 

That's 272 new deaths per day, excluding those death certificates still not processed.

And at the current late reporting levels that adds another 50 percent or so.

 

The last sentence is a lie but my apologies, Worldometer reported an incorrect number.  However the 7DMA death count is spiraling downward quickly. Using your source Yesterday’s count was the lowest since Sept 1 and down from 440 on Sept 20th.  

Daily cases counts are a mere 25% of those reported at the Delta crest.  My reasonable estimate?  The daily 7DMA will be below 100 in two weeks.

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46 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

The last sentence is a lie but my apologies, Worldometer reported an incorrect number.  However the 7DMA death count is spiraling downward quickly. Using your source Yesterday’s count was the lowest since Sept 1 and down from 440 on Sept 20th.  

Daily cases counts are a mere 25% of those reported at the Delta crest.  My reasonable estimate?  The daily 7DMA will be below 100 in two weeks.

Do you honestly not know how Florida reports deaths?

Worldometer shows how many deaths were officially recorded same day as the death occurs. On most days this is around 8 to 20.  The actual number who died is between 200 to 370+ atm.

The people who died and are not counted same day are added back to that same day as the death certificates are processed, from a few days later to up to 4 week later.

Go read the news papers such as the herald to see how deaths are being added up to 4 weeks later so they don't appear in current daily tallies.

Worldometer does correct the overall death toll as data appears, but again they do not (and cannot) parse the data properly on a current daily basis.

Yes the trend is downwards, but not the quick drop you claim.

This isn't rocket science. If it confused you, blame Florida GOP. They are the ones who make the data confusing in the first place.

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3 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Good news on the therapeutic front.  We are fortunate to live in an era of modern medicine where the virus is being attacked on all fronts.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

A pill has cut the risk of hospitalization or death from Covid-19 by half in a study, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said Friday.

It would become the first oral medicine that fights viral infection for Covid-19 if approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization.
"At the interim analysis, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%," Merck said in a news release. "7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo treated patients (53,377). Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo."

so, only half of the dumbfucks will die, if they can get the magic pill. if not, strong light or bleach might help. has anyone compared that to the chance of not getting covid, if you are not a moron and were vaccinated?

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11 minutes ago, Fakenews said:
36 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

And just to be clear, the 7dma for last week (270) will rise as more death certificates arrive in the coming 3 weeks.

Lie.

What? That's exactly how it works.

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34 minutes ago, Voyageur said:

so, only half of the dumbfucks will die, if they can get the magic pill. if not, strong light or bleach might help. has anyone compared that to the chance of not getting covid, if you are not a moron and were vaccinated?

I wonder how many of them refused the vaccine, believing the bullshit it was "developed too quickly", but will happily take the pill, which was developed rather quickly?

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9 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

What? That's exactly how it works.

Um no.  Every day there are fewer deaths the 7DMA falls in lockstep though daily fluctuations are smoothed out.  The 7DMA is heading for 100 in the next 2 weeks and this is crystal clear when you look at the 7DMA of cases which has fallen from more than 20K in early Sept.  to 5K.

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32 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Lie.

Nah, I dont lie - sorry.

Let me spell it out at an even more basic level so hopefully you might just comprehend what Fl does.

Let just say 320 people actually die resulting from covid on a particular day. 

On that day - lets say its a Friday because it is easier to understand, only 6 death certificates are received by the state *for that same days' deaths*.

This is what worldometer reports.

Then by Monday the following week, the state receives 100 extra death certificates applicable to that Friday. Florida then includes those 106 death certificates in the  X number of new deaths have been added in the last 4 weeks, of which 50% (typical atm) actually occurred in the last 2 weeks, because Fl releases its report late on a monday every week.  Note even in just that statement you should be able to see 50% of the new deaths added actually happened 2 - 4 weeks ago.

Then 1 week later, another 80 death certificates are received for that Friday. These are then included in the report on the following Monday.

Fl is on record for stating death certificates take up to 4 weeks to be processed. And the data supports this - if you go and do the proper analysis.

So on day 1 (friday), the death certificates recorded are 8.

The following monday, florida has recorded another 100 certs for that day, so now 108.

Then next monday after that, florida has recorded another 80 certs for that day, so now 188.

Then the next monday after that, florida has recorded another 70 certs for that day, so now 258

Then the next monday after that florida has recorded another 40 certs for that day, so now 298.

Capice?

Care to be nice and retract the accusation of me lying?

 

 

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21 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

Nah, I dont lie - sorry.

Let me spell it out at an even more basic level so hopefully you might just comprehend what Fl does.

Let just say 320 people actually die resulting from covid on a particular day. 

On that day - lets say its a Friday because it is easier to understand, only 6 death certificates are received by the state *for that same days' deaths*.

This is what worldometer reports.

Then by Monday the following week, the state receives 100 extra death certificates applicable to that Friday. Florida then includes those 106 death certificates in the  X number of new deaths have been added in the last 4 weeks, of which 50% (typical atm) actually occurred in the last 2 weeks, because Fl releases its report late on a monday every week.  Note even in just that statement you should be able to see 50% of the new deaths added actually happened 2 - 4 weeks ago.

Then 1 week later, another 80 death certificates are received for that Friday. These are then included in the report on the following Monday.

Fl is on record for stating death certificates take up to 4 weeks to be processed. And the data supports this - if you go and do the proper analysis.

So on day 1 (friday), the death certificates recorded are 8.

The following monday, florida has recorded another 100 certs for that day, so now 108.

Then next monday after that, florida has recorded another 80 certs for that day, so now 188.

Then the next monday after that, florida has recorded another 70 certs for that day, so now 258

Then the next monday after that florida has recorded another 40 certs for that day, so now 298.

Capice?

Care to be nice and retract the accusation of me lying?

 

 

What a Garage scenario.  Every day fewer deaths COVID are happening in Florida.  Declining deaths mean a declining 7DMA .  Our case count peaked in early Sept..   We know what that means for deaths they peak 2 weeks later.  The 7DMA takes a smidge longer to peak because math.   Like clockwork the 7DMA death count peaked Sept 20th.  With case counts now around 25% that of the peak it’s easy to see where the 7DMA for deaths will be in two weeks.  
 

Perhaps you are not lying and just have no idea what the case counts and deaths in Florida actually are.  In that case I wholeheartedly apologize. 

Edit to add your 4 week delay in deaths reported is a huge Malarkian worthy lie.

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

What a Garage scenario.  Every day fewer deaths COVID are happening in Florida.  Declining deaths mean a declining 7DMA .  Our case count peaked in early Sept..   We know what that means for deaths they peak 2 weeks later.  The 7DMA takes a smidge longer to peak because math.   Like clockwork the 7DMA death count peaked Sept 20th.  With case counts now around 25% that of the peak it’s easy to see where the 7DMA for deaths will be in two weeks.  
 

Perhaps you are not lying and just have no idea what the case counts and deaths in Florida actually are.  In that case I wholeheartedly apologize. 

I have not disputed that deaths will drop as a result of a reduction in positive test results, and I said much the same above.

However if you look very closely at the stats Florida supply - in arrears -, what the smarter local news are reporting, it is clear that while the 7dma is dropping, the 7dma for the previous week to now woefully under reports the true 7dma.

On other words, the 7dma is not accurate until the data is analysed about 4 weeks later. So in addition to a long tail from infection to hospital to death, there is an extra long tail (4 weeks+) on top of that for reporting delay.

A further complication is we do not know how accurate new case reporting is anymore. Lots of doubt as to absolute numbers, but certainly I agree there is a fall from 20k down to 5k *reported* new cases.

If you did not understand how the reporting process worked before I explained it to you, and you are still banging on about me not 'just have no idea what the case counts and deaths in Florida actually are', then you are just seeing what you want to see, not looking at the real, delayed, data.

So your apology is a non apology. Fine, why would I care? I've made my case.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

 

3 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

I have not disputed that deaths will drop as a result of a reduction in positive test results, and I said much the same above.

However if you look very closely at the stats Florida supply - in arrears -, what the smarter local news are reporting, it is clear that while the 7dma is dropping, the 7dma for the previous week to now woefully under reports the true 7dma.

On other words, the 7dma is not accurate until the data is analysed about 4 weeks later. So in addition to a long tail from infection to hospital to death, there is an extra long tail (4 weeks+) on top of that for reporting delay.

A further complication is we do not know how accurate new case reporting is anymore. Lots of doubt as to absolute numbers, but certainly I agree there is a fall from 20k down to 5k *reported* new cases.

If you did not understand how the reporting process worked before I explained it to you, and you are still banging on about me not 'just have no idea what the case counts and deaths in Florida actually are', then you are just seeing what you want to see, not looking at the real, delayed, data.

So your apology is a non apology. Fine, why would I care? I've made my case.

 

 

Yeah your case is based on a lie about the 7DMA being based on deaths that happened 4 weeks ago.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

 

Yeah your case is based on a lie about the 7DMA being based on deaths that happened 4 weeks ago.

 

Don't give up your day job whatever it is. You are not cut out to be a data analyst.

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And just to add a little detail about florida, for the week 9/17 to 9/23.

Here is what the tampa bay news said.

'The state added 2,340 deaths since the previous week’s report, 128 fewer than the previous week.

This brings the total statewide number of pandemic deaths to 56,325. The report indicates that 355 deaths occurred in the past seven days, but it can take officials up to two weeks to confirm and report a coronavirus-related death.'

The data eventually flows through to the CDC. From the CDC daily deaths listing for Florida - today- , 812 deaths are recorded for the same date. I will revisit the same dates next week.

From the data I have seen 90% of death certs are processed within 4 weeks (not the 2 weeks as written in the tampa bay news).

2,340 deathsadded (in the report) - 355 that occured in the same 7 days = 1,985 deaths that are being retrospectively added to days prior.

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4 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

Bullshit.

From the herald, in Florida, yesterday.

In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 272 deaths and 5,612 cases to the daily cumulative total, according to Herald analysis of CDC data. 

That's 272 new deaths per day, excluding those death certificates still not processed.

And at the current late reporting levels that adds another 50 percent or so.

 

Anyone, like Dr. Flakenews, who believes accurate data is coming out of Florida is also likely to believe that viruses can't evolve into deadlier strains.

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1 minute ago, Left Shift said:

Anyone who believes data coming out of Florida is also likely to believe that viruses don't evolve into deadlier strains.

The data is mostly correct, but purposely presented to be misleading. 

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1 minute ago, Left Shift said:

Anyone who believes data coming out of Florida is also likely to believe that viruses don't evolve into deadlier strains.

The convenient part of your and DFW’s pathology is that in 2 weeks you can simply claim not to believe the dramatic drop in the 7DMA #’s.  

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17 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

The convenient part of your and DFW’s pathology is that in 2 weeks you can simply claim not to believe the dramatic drop in the 7DMA #’s.  

Are you being deliberately obtuse? He didn’t say it won’t come down. All he said was that the current numbers, for today, will be retroactively raised as the numbers get added. The slope will change. It will be shallower than first reports.

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9 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Are you being deliberately obtuse? He didn’t say it won’t come down. All he said was that the current numbers, for today, will be retroactively raised as the numbers get added. The slope will change. It will be shallower than first reports.

Incorrect. He said in his post 

And just to be clear, the 7dma for last week (270) will rise as more death certificates arrive in the coming 3 weeks.”

He is selling a lie that the 7DMA is based on deaths that happened 4 weeks ago.

Disgusting bullshit.

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7 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Incorrect. He said in his post 

And just to be clear, the 7dma for last week (270) will rise as more death certificates arrive in the coming 3 weeks.”

He is selling a lie that the 7DMA is based on deaths that happened 4 weeks ago.

Disgusting bullshit.

It WILL go up from what it is now. That’s what happens when the state under-reports. When the real data comes out and falls in the right bucket, the absolute number will go up. That doesn’t mean it will go higher than say, the previous day, it’ll just go up. If it was 270, maybe after corrections it will be 300.

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8 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Incorrect. He said in his post 

And just to be clear, the 7dma for last week (270) will rise as more death certificates arrive in the coming 3 weeks.”

He is selling a lie that the 7DMA is based on deaths that happened 4 weeks ago.

Disgusting bullshit.

He is selling a truth that the 7DMA is based on incomplete data, including deaths that happened during those 7 days but which will not be recorded for days to come.

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19 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

He is selling a truth that the 7DMA is based on incomplete data, including deaths that happened during those 7 days but which will not be recorded for days to come.

Weeks to come .  It’s a huge lie

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48 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

In a rare bit of good news from the SCOTUS they refused to overturn NYC’s vaccine mandate.

I think we can count on this rendition of the Supremes to err on the side of govt power. 

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9 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Incorrect. He said in his post 

And just to be clear, the 7dma for last week (270) will rise as more death certificates arrive in the coming 3 weeks.”

He is selling a lie that the 7DMA is based on deaths that happened 4 weeks ago.

Disgusting bullshit.

Either you are willfully misunderstanding, or are a moron.

The deaths all occur during the period. Reporting of those deaths is delayed for periods between zero days and 4 weeks. Thus the total number cannot be known until 4 weeks later.

If you had any morals at all, you'd apologise to dfw sailor.

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39 minutes ago, Se7en said:

Either you are willfully misunderstanding, or are a moron.

The deaths all occur during the period. Reporting of those deaths is delayed for periods between zero days and 4 weeks. Thus the total number cannot be known until 4 weeks later.

If you had any morals at all, you'd apologise to dfw sailor.

I'm going for moron. He seems to be the only one here not grasping how this whole thing works, and why Florida is doing it this way.

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8 hours ago, Se7en said:

Either you are willfully misunderstanding, or are a moron.

The deaths all occur during the period. Reporting of those deaths is delayed for periods between zero days and 4 weeks. Thus the total number cannot be known until 4 weeks later.

If you had any morals at all, you'd apologise to dfw sailor.

It’s a hideous lie that deaths from four weeks ago are in any way impacting the 7DMA death rate.  Is possible that a death from 4 weeks ago suddenly gets reported from a small county like Union (well no but let’s say it is).  But there’s no way that’s happening in Dade, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Broward, Orange etc in any meaningful way. 

In any event his allegation is that the 7DMA will be going up for the next three weeks mine is that the 7DMA will be at or below 100 in two weeks.  Easy money.

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Well, well, well, look at this.  The 7DMA dropped bigly.  Tip of the hat to me!

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/10/02/florida-adds-37772-covid-cases-1719-deaths-in-past-week/
 

Florida reports 37,772 coronavirus cases over the seven-day period from Sept. 24-30, an average of about 5,400 infections per day. The data released Friday shows a 33 percent drop in cases from the week before and the lowest weekly infection rate since early July.

The latest tally brings the total number of cases up to 3,576,571 since the pandemic’s first two cases in Florida were reported 19 months ago on March 1, 2020.

The state added 1,719 deaths since the previous week’s report. This brings the total statewide number of pandemic deaths to 55,299 The report indicates that 233 deaths occurred in the past seven days

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5 hours ago, Fakenews said:

It’s a hideous lie that deaths from four weeks ago are in any way impacting the 7DMA death rate.  Is possible that a death from 4 weeks ago suddenly gets reported from a small county like Union (well no but let’s say it is).  But there’s no way that’s happening in Dade, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Broward, Orange etc in any meaningful way. 

In any event his allegation is that the 7DMA will be going up for the next three weeks mine is that the 7DMA will be at or below 100 in two weeks.  Easy money.

You just don't get it. I give up.

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11 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

You just don't get it. I give up.

He'll see that as a win.  Won't be surprised if he dusts off his old claim of having "schooled" you.

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

Imagine your confusion when the 7DMA of deaths falls below 100. In two weeks from now!  

Imagine your confusion when you look back two weeks from now and today's 7DMA is higher than reporting right now.

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4 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Imagine your confusion when you look back two weeks from now and today's 7DMA is higher than reporting right now.

That'll be time to move the goal posts.

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Bill Palmer speaks up.

Quote

Let’s get something straight here. I reject the false egalitarian idea that we must respect everyone’s opinion. Recently I reposted a meme on my Facebook wall that gives an example of a differing opinion as the false equation “3-squared equals six.” The common assertion of the hippie era that “All religions are true” is another falsehood. In order for tolerance to work it must have at its foundation a specific intolerance of rubbish and a steadfast refusal to entertain it. Freedom of speech sometimes also requires freedom from speech.

Many well-meaning people on our side of the government keep making the same idiotic mistake. The mistake is enunciated in the language of pusillanimous compromise. The idea that, along with encouraging vaccinations and the wearing of masks, “no one wants to take your freedom away from you,” is pure hogwash. Murder has never been a freedom. Drunk driving is not a freedom. The wearing of clothing in public is not optional. We should be sticking people who “disagree,” people who hold “opinions different from ours” directly in prison. Covid vaccinations need to become the law of the land right now, right this minute, and anti-vaxxers need to be told to sit down and shut their stupid mouths.

There is a direct, unambiguous correlation between the refusal to wear masks and the refusal to get vaccinated and the deaths of Americans. Morons who continue to espouse the “freedom” not to get vaccinated are dying by the hundreds of thousands. The slightly less benightedly stupid among them are realising their mistakes. Some of those less contemptibly, vacuously mallet-headed idiots are actually stating that obvious fact out loud.

Being stupid is not a freedom, it’s a deadly imposition on the rest of us. I’m sorry if you were born stupid but it’s not my fault. I want to restore the world to normality and you’re in my way. You need to go. That’s why we have laws, you cretin. If you don’t like it, too bad. I have no sympathy for you. I reserve my sympathy for innocent people, people with compromised immune systems, people whose deaths you caused.

Occasionally, after some benighted thug and walking cliche murders a crowd of people with a gun because girls don’t like him, and then has the rare good taste to turn the gun on himself, the press will report the total number of deaths by including his. I immediately subtract one from that number. I’m not interested in his death. His death I set aside as the only bit of good news coming out of an otherwise horrific tragedy. So it is for the deaths of anti-vaxxers. If you’re an anti-vaxxer and you die of Covid-19, I have just two words for you: good effing riddance.

 

It should also keep us humble that, just as segregation was once the cause of Democrats, opposition to MMR vaccinations began as a cause largely of liberals. It’s an anti-science medieval piece of loathsome ignorance and it needs to go — right now. If you’re an anti-vaxxer then educate yourself and move on. There are plenty of excellent books and websites run by actual doctors who will set you straight. If you have a brain cell in your little head it shouldn’t take more than 30 minutes to learn the truth and how you have been deceived. Get smart and move on. We’ve got work to do.

  

Before the year 2022 is out more than a million Americans will be dead from Coronavirus, and most of those deaths will have been preventable. We’ve already endured the presidency of a murdering rapist, let’s not make it worse by prolonging his legacy of death by weak-willed notions of tolerance. Man up and woman up. It’s time for the adults in the room to come to the rescue. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/its-time-for-the-adults-in-the-room-to-come-to-the-rescue/41791/

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8 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Imagine your confusion when you look back two weeks from now and today's 7DMA is higher than reporting right now.

LOL.  I don’t live in your fantasy land where the 7DMA  is in any way impacted by deaths that occurred 4 weeks ago.  Fortunately neither do Public Heath officials nor those you tabulate the #’s.  Deaths this week alone are down 30%from the prior 7 days.  The 7DMA is similarly cascading downwards.
 

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6 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

LOL.  I don’t live in your fantasy land where the 7DMA  is in any way impacted by deaths that occurred 4 weeks ago.  Fortunately neither do Public Heath officials nor those you tabulate the #’s.  Deaths this week alone are down 30%from the prior 7 days.  The 7DMA is similarly cascading downwards.
 

Fuck....

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Title....

US ranked #1 to best deal with a disease outbreak

No question, that is a true statement! 

Problem is that 80 million MORONS believe all the fake bullshit posted on Fake Book, and RWNJ Media, so refuse to get the safe, fully tested, vaccine that will save their lives and the lives of their loved ones. 

Never in my 66 year lifetime would I have believed there are so many totally naive, stupid MORONS, in the US of A!!  Circling the bowl ever faster, in the race to the bottom, to become the next 2nd or 3rd world Country. 

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4 hours ago, Fakenews said:

LOL.  I don’t live in your fantasy land where the 7DMA  is in any way impacted by deaths that occurred 4 weeks ago.  Fortunately neither do Public Heath officials nor those you tabulate the #’s.  Deaths this week alone are down 30%from the prior 7 days.  The 7DMA is similarly cascading downwards.
 

The 7dma is a flawed metric for the reasons given.

What part of "it doesn't count all deaths" don't you get?

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Ease the sheet. said:

The 7dma is a flawed metric for the reasons given.

What part of "it doesn't count all deaths" don't you get?

 

 

What part of they are immaterial to the moving average do you not get?

I get it math is hard for you guys.  Maybe I should  stick to weekly deaths reported (which not coincidently is skyrocketing downward along with COVID cases).