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US ranked #1 to best deal with a disease outbreak


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5 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

I am without speech.

That's because you have COVID-19 on your mind, and you in fact are completely and 100% oblivious to the reality that tens of thousands of people in the USA are not dying from cholera, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and birth complications like in countries that don't have strong clinical capabilities like we do.

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BTW, I gave Mikey a time out, which will be the same response anyone gets for calling the coronavirus response measures 'hysteria' or peddling misinformation that could hurt someone.

I'm day 9 of symptoms and still in the middle if it. Let me tell you,  getting a viral load from convience store handle much less than getting it from being in a maskless patients face coughing on you

It is not whether it offends, it is whether it is dangerous. Spreading false information about the dangers of a pandemic can kill people. Most forums have a ratio of between 10 and 100 lurkers to ever

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2 minutes ago, mikewof said:

I would prefer that every person with a weakened immune system be kept away from other people, since that's what I just wrote, regardless the cost savings.

How can we prevent overcrowding in our hospitals? We can build more hospitals or reduce the diseases. Reducing the diseases is the low-hanging fruit. I won't get into COVID-19 now because it's barely a blip compared to cardiovascular diseases and lung disease. But for cardiovascular and lung diseases, the single cheapest way to reduce those is by cleaning our air both inside and outside our buildings.

NYC has about 1/2 of our country's covid cases.  What should they do NOW to prevent scenes like that in their hospitals?

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5 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

He's blissfully ignoring the FACT that the curve of US infections, even on the Log curve, it accelerating at a faster rate, while Italy's is actually starting to moderate.

Also blissfully ignoring both undertesting Infections and Mortality AND the FACT that the illness takes a good 10 days plus to kill - so all those infections in the last couple days? We won't see those deaths for another 10. Look at our mortality rate against the known infections of 10 days ago? That "rate" doesn't look so good.

Ah, so you keep writing about how we're right behind Italy, so even if we end this thing with 5,000 total deaths, that about 8% of the toll from pneumonia and flu.

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3 minutes ago, mikewof said:

That's because you have COVID-19 on your mind, and you in fact are completely and 100% oblivious to the reality that tens of thousands of people in the USA are not dying from cholera, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and birth complications like in countries that don't have strong clinical capabilities like we do.

Yeah, everybody but you is stupid

Funny, ain't it?

-DSK

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3 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

NYC has about 1/2 of our country's covid cases.  What should they do NOW to prevent scenes like that in their hospitals?

Nothing they can do. NYC has some of the most overcrowded hospitals in the country. COVID-19 or not.

I used to live in NYC, I've never seen hospital crowding in any place I've ever lived that is like NYC. We will see photos of overcrowding in NYC hospitals this year, and the photos will look a lot like I remember them. Only this time, instead of babies and children waiting for medical attention and being stored in hallways, it will be older people.

I remember one year back in the late 1990s, there was a tuberculosis scare there, I remember seeing hundreds of homeless people at Bellevue shoved in there like standing firewood, waiting for their inspections, sometimes mandatory.

There will ALWAYS be crowded hospitals because of the nature of illness. We can't build enough capacity for 100% of the outbreaks for 100% of the year. We build hospitals to handle 85% or so of the outbreaks, and even then, in many places, there are a lot of empty beds. Hospitals have to pay for those empty beds, they like to avoid them. And NYC is in a tough spot because it's hard to add capacity there.

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3 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

NYC has about 1/2 of our country's covid cases.  What should they do NOW to prevent scenes like that in their hospitals?

Mikey says they don't have any issues.

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Take a look at the graph for "Closed Cases".  See that orange line?  That's the death rate. 

If you go to the website, choose "Show Graph", and hover over the right hand end of that line, it indicates a death rate of 12.93%.

Note the trend.

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 5.25.06 PM.png

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5 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Nothing they can do.

Let's explore that.  If they can prevent/slow the spread of Covid it will mean the city likely avoids scenes that are occurring in Spanish and Italian hospitals.  How might people in NYC prevent/slow the transmission of Covid?

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3 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

Let's explore that.  If they can prevent/slow the spread of Covid it will mean the city likely avoids scenes that are occurring in Spanish and Italian hospitals.  How might people in NYC prevent/slow the transmission of Covid?

Can any coronavirus or rhinovirus be significantly slowed other than forced quarantines? They are some of the most virulent.

They spread exponentially. If we had a test now that showed say, 1/10th of the population of the USA has been exposed to COVID-19, it wouldn't surprise me too much.

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1 minute ago, mikewof said:

Can any coronavirus or rhinovirus be significantly slowed other than forced quarantines? They are some of the most virulent.

They spread exponentially.

So you are saying quarantines and social distancing and shutting down business are a way we can avoid scenes like that Spanish hospital?

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5 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

So you are saying quarantines and social distancing and shutting down business are a way we can avoid scenes like that Spanish hospital?

Social distancing? Nah.

Forced and rigidly enforced quarantines, rock solid, no exception, martial law, no delivery people, no Amazon packages, no take-out food lines, no supermarkets open, comply or be arrested? If you need food, a standard ration is dropped at your door. Yeah, that would work.

 

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11 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Nothing they can do. NYC has some of the most overcrowded hospitals in the country. COVID-19 or not.

I used to live in NYC, I've never seen hospital crowding in any place I've ever lived that is like NYC. We will see photos of overcrowding in NYC hospitals this year, and the photos will look a lot like I remember them. Only this time, instead of babies and children waiting for medical attention and being stored in hallways, it will be older people.

I remember one year back in the late 1990s, there was a tuberculosis scare there, I remember seeing hundreds of homeless people at Bellevue shoved in there like standing firewood, waiting for their inspections, sometimes mandatory.

There will ALWAYS be crowded hospitals because of the nature of illness. We can't build enough capacity for 100% of the outbreaks for 100% of the year. We build hospitals to handle 85% or so of the outbreaks, and even then, in many places, there are a lot of empty beds. Hospitals have to pay for those empty beds, they like to avoid them. And NYC is in a tough spot because it's hard to add capacity there.

For profit healthcare systems will maintain little excess capacity above “normal” baseline. It’s all about the margins. Healthcare should be socialized.

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1 hour ago, Remodel said:

Yes, but look at the infection curve. Theirs is flat lining flattening while ours is skyrocketing.

Yes....They did a better job of testing and isolating the infected than we did and are later in thc cycle than we are.

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6 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

We hit a 100 dead today.
So far.....

US Total, at this time, 522.  More than 10x the amount previously dismissed.  

And, that was just a few days ago.  Must be gaining steam.

Won't even register a "Meh" with Mikey.

 

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18 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

Take a look at the graph for "Closed Cases".  See that orange line?  That's the death rate. 

If you go to the website, choose "Show Graph", and hover over the right hand end of that line, it indicates a death rate of 12.93%.

Note the trend.

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 5.25.06 PM.png

That rate will fall as people recover and are discharged.

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Just now, Dog said:
21 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

Take a look at the graph for "Closed Cases".  See that orange line?  That's the death rate. 

If you go to the website, choose "Show Graph", and hover over the right hand end of that line, it indicates a death rate of 12.93%.

Note the trend.

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 5.25.06 PM.png

That rate will fall as people recover and are discharged.

You do know we are seeing an exponential increase in the death rate, right?  You can read that from the "Total Deaths" graph (log scale).

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2 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

US Total, at this time, 522.  More than 10x the amount previously dismissed.  

And, that was just a few days ago.  Must be gaining steam.

Won't even register a "Meh" with Mikey.

 

Na, let him know when it passes flu deaths for the year.  and then let him know when it passes car accident deaths for the year.  And then maybe we can let him know when it gets near cancer deaths for the year. 

Then Mikey will pop in and tell us that they're counting wrong.

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27 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Ah, so you keep writing about how we're right behind Italy, so even if we end this thing with 5,000 total deaths, that about 8% of the toll from pneumonia and flu.

If we can keep it under 5k, we've dodged a bullet.

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2 hours ago, Swimsailor said:

Do you believe Donald Trump?

I believe the CDC and WHO.

Sometimes I believe Donald Trump and sometimes I don't.

Do you believe the numbers out of China.

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9 minutes ago, Sean said:

For profit healthcare systems will maintain little excess capacity above “normal” baseline. It’s all about the margins. Healthcare should be socialized.

 

Even with socialization, there will still be overcrowded hospitals, it's the nature of illness. It doesn't come evenly spread through the year, it comes in clumps.

One solution for the overcrowding is wellness, stop the illnesses before they happen. But it's tough to run money through wellness, though Australia, New Zealand and Scandinavia are half-decent at it.

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

We'll be there in what, eight days?

if it doesn't accelerate, more like 13. But it's been accelerating quite a bit...

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9 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

You do know we are seeing an exponential increase in the death rate, right?  You can read that from the "Total Deaths" graph (log scale).

Means most of the cases are recent and it can take 6 weeks to recover. That rate will drop.

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13 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Na, let him know when it passes flu deaths for the year.  and then let him know when it passes car accident deaths for the year.  And then maybe we can let him know when it gets near cancer deaths for the year. 

Then Mikey will pop in and tell us that they're counting wrong.

I'm not the one claiming that we're counting it wrong, that's Len.

But flu deaths? Really Clean? You think a coronavirus can register more than 50,000 some deaths in the USA alone? Have you seen anything in the data to suggest that might happen?

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4 minutes ago, mikewof said:

I'm not the one claiming that we're counting it wrong, that's Len.

But flu deaths? Really Clean? You think a coronavirus can register more than 50,000 some deaths in the USA alone? Have you seen anything in the data to suggest that might happen?

Well, yes. Pretty simple really. No herd immunity, something like 60% infection in year 1, conservatively, which is 180M people. If it's just 5x as powerful, given it's a novel virus that we've not seen before, thats 90,000 deaths to start. But Italy is seeing something much more deadly. Could be the age of the population, could be the strain.  I'd say we're at 100,000 minimum

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Just now, Fakenews said:

No Dr Fauci or Redfield for this presser.  Ominously Barr is on the stage but on the plus side he looks ill.

Fauci is honest.  Would have looked out of place.  Trump:

 

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2 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

No Dr Fauci or Redfield for this presser.  Ominously Barr is on the stage but on the plus side he looks ill.

Barr always looks ill. Sallow and waxy complexion. A lifetime of drinking and obesity has his liver on life support.

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34 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

We'll be there in what, eight days?

If a magic wand was waved, and no new transmissions happened from this very minute going forward, it will still be over 5k once all the currently-sick people either recover or die.

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27 minutes ago, mikewof said:

I'm not the one claiming that we're counting it wrong, that's Len.

But flu deaths? Really Clean? You think a coronavirus can register more than 50,000 some deaths in the USA alone? Have you seen anything in the data to suggest that might happen?

I think it will register over 1 million.

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14 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Barr always looks ill. Sallow and waxy complexion. A lifetime of drinking and obesity has his liver on life support.

His sense of morality has apparently predeceased him.

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4 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Please, somebody who plans to vote for Trump in Nov, tell me what he's done right.  Thank you.

He didn’t use email

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Just now, jerseyguy said:

He didn’t use email

Too ignorant?  I say we give each candidate a cheap bbq grill in Nov and whomever assembles it the quickest with the least errors is our next President.  Since he doesn't drink, Trump has never held a screwdriver.  Now Pence is blowing him.

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3 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Too ignorant?  I say we give each candidate a cheap bbq grill in Nov and whomever assembles it the quickest with the least errors is our next President.  Since he doesn't drink, Trump has never held a screwdriver.  Now Pence is blowing him.

Makes as much sense as voting.  At least being able to assemble a grill means you have some useful skill and can read and follow directions.

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3 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

Fauci had some interviews come out over the weekend where he basically was saying ' What do you want me to do?  I cant control what this guy (Trump) says'.
He hasnt been at the last 3 pressers and you probably wont see him again.  Hes 79 and dosnt give a shit about Trump. If he gets fired he goes on every TV network  
exposing everything.  They are going to mothball him

Meanwhile its politics as usual

Mitch calls for two votes knowing it wont pass just to try to demonstrate Dem obstruction
Repubs say Dems have inserted abortion funding into this bill. They dont want that  
Trump said 'NO BUYBACKS'. Apparently the language says yes buybacks, only if they are approved by Mnuchin. If true this is laughable

What is true and what isnt? Who knows  

OAC was on TV saying everyone should get the support payments. Regardless of wealth or income. When asked if Bill Gates and Warren Buffet and Jeff Bezos should get a couple of monthly government  checks for $1,000, she said 'Absolutely, give them the money now and we can get it back next year when they file their taxes.  That is a direct quote     

SNAFU 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

Seems like the simplest way to do it.  No means testing, no bullshit, just prime the economy.  Giving $12,000 dollars a year to a guy who has already donated $36,000,000,000 to humanity seems OK to me.

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3 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

 Hes 79 and dosnt give a shit about Trump. If he gets fired he goes on every TV network  
exposing everything.  

If he's been working continuously for the fed, his paycheck will go up on retirement.  The man is honest, ergo, has no place in this administration!

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5 minutes ago, jerseyguy said:

Makes as much sense as voting.  At least being able to assemble a grill means you have some useful skill and can read and follow directions.

What if neither finishes before inauguration?

 

Edit:  Those fuckers aren't easy!

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5 minutes ago, jerseyguy said:

Makes as much sense as voting.  At least being able to assemble a grill means you have some useful skill and can read and follow directions.

You could make it touch and leave out a bolt, or extra sneaky, but in a couple extra.

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3 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

If he's been working continuously for the fed, his paycheck will go up on retirement.  The man is honest, ergo, has no place in this administration!

I'm sure the Prez can figure out how to fuck up the pension

 

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

I'm sure the Prez can figure out how to fuck up the pension

I hope he does.  I want Trump to die in jail.  Yes, I'm a hater.  

Fauci is way too visible for Trump to fuck with but seriously, how old is Trump in mental years.  Someone says something he views as negative and the one guy we looked to as a country to tell us the truth, is not allowed at the press briefing?  I was using crayons when this type of behavior was typical.  Hopefully, Fauci tells Trump to fuck off and addresses on the many news outlets that would hire him for a ton right now.  

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2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

look for trump pupil analysis.  He is 100% on it and its widely agreed.

I know Adderalll is used by many ADHD sufferers, what are the  complete list of side effects.  A cite would be fine.  Thanks. 

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Just now, Cal20sailor said:

I know Adderalll is used by many ADHD sufferers, what are the  complete list of side effects.  A cite would be fine.  Thanks. 

the ones I had were:

dilated pupils

excessive sweating (brow, palms, pits)

fidgeting

inability to stop talking

insomnia

vivid dreams

headache

dehydration

 

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11 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Doctors would have the whole word shut down for a year or more...

Trump's narcississtic 5yo brain only worries about himself.  I hate that idiot.  

I know, fake news.  

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/politics/trump-coronavirus-15-days-social-distancing/index.html

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/politics/trump-coronavirus-15-days-social-distancing/index.html

Dog and Punslinger are at least two of his supporters who believe in wiping your ass a week after it was steaming.

"It is very important that we totally protect our Asian American community in the United States, and all around the world," Trump tweeted Monday evening. "They are amazing people, and the spreading of the Virus (...) is NOT their fault in any way, shape, or form. They are working closely with us to get rid of it. WE WILL PREVAIL TOGETHER!"

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44 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

What if neither finishes before inauguration?

 

Edit:  Those fuckers aren't easy!

To see if POTUS and VPOTUS can work as a team have them assemble it as a team. If no one is done, new election with new candidates

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1 hour ago, Cristoforo said:

With what trump just said now about reopening the country ‘in weeks not months’

Fauci’s head would have exploded. He would have jumped on trump and tried  to choke him to death. 

We won’t see him again 

 

 

Yea, Trump is nuts.

Since we're all about 'data' on this site, here's a simple comparative graphic I put together.  Earlier, I pointed out people keep omitting the data from the X-Axis.  This is just a simple normalized bell curve - i.e, the entry level sort of exponential growth/decay function.  We all think the situation in Italy sucks.  Well, for simplicity, lets imagine our goal is to get to 1/2 of the instantaneous number of people who require extensive care - #flattenthecurve and all that.

The two curves have the same area - in other words, the same number of people infected for about the same number of time but spread out so that you end up with a spike 1/2 as tall - curve flattened.  I've taken the optimistic Italian case - it started January 31st and roughly peaked today (assuming that the two days declining, etc is true and not an anomaly).

Two weeks on lockdown isn't going to do shit.  It's just not anywhere near enough time.  To flatten the curve, you need a sustained effort to about where the peak occurs - in other words, 11 weeks.  Not 2 weeks.  ELEVEN.  This is just math.  To get to a peak ~ 1/2 as high, you need to sustain whatever flattening you're going to do till you peak and then HOPE that nature takes over from there and you can relax your constraints.  That's assuming that about 60%-70% of the people can magically develop the herd immunity. 

There are 64,000 cases in Italy.  There are over 61 MILLION Italians.  Their 'herd immunity' rate is 0.1% right now.  As soon as the constraints come off, they're getting right back on the curve.  So are the Chinese.  So are the Koreans, and Japanese. 

The best we can hope for is to hit some sort of equilibrium steady state bouncing around an infection rate that equals your recovery rate until we burn through the population and develop herd immunity or come up with vaccine.  How long will it take at the suppressed rate?  It's taken Italy about 50 days to hit 0.1% herd immunity.  First order guess?  60% of 50*65/0.1 or ~50 years, give or take a decade.  Sometimes, it's just math.

How long CAN you keep a population suppressed?

 

 

image.png.9774f56376429be3f0a3d4d3a20a562b.png

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, jerseyguy said:

To see if POTUS and VPOTUS can work as a team have them assemble it as a team. If no one is done, new election with new candidates

That's funny.  Betsy can help Trump, get a HS Jr to help Biden.  Even the biggest pro-Trump assholes (you know who you are) would go with the HS kid.

If the next prez, sen, and house were all democrats.  Could they enact a law that everyone in his lineage be sterilized?  Stop it from spreading?  Barbaric, sure.  But so was his choice to prioritize his political standing over the health of Americans.

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1 hour ago, Cal20sailor said:

That's funny.  Betsy can help Trump, get a HS Jr to help Biden.  Even the biggest pro-Trump assholes (you know who you are) would go with the HS kid.

If the next prez, sen, and house were all democrats.  Could they enact a law that everyone in his lineage be sterilized?  Stop it from spreading?  Barbaric, sure.  But so was his choice to prioritize his political standing over the health of Americans.

Somewhat barbaric and draconian but every male with Trump DNA get a vasectomy—-with no anesthesia.  Barron gets a pass for now but If he turns out like his uncles and father, then snip.

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5 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

The Lt Gov. of Texas is all on board withTrump. “Let’s get back to living. The 70 year olds can fend for themselves”.

Texas man are all kinds of stupid.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/im-all-in-texas-republican-urges-fox-news-viewers-to-risk-their-lives-so-coronavirus-closures-end/

Gator, did they assume you'd know basic grammar at UF.  They did in Ann Arbor.  

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20 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Male?  No bias on this one!

I’ll let anti-Trump feminists decide what to do with the women with Trump DNA.  Not my call.

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1 hour ago, cmilliken said:

 

Yea, Trump is nuts.

Since we're all about 'data' on this site, here's a simple comparative graphic I put together.  Earlier, I pointed out people keep omitting the data from the X-Axis.  This is just a simple normalized bell curve - i.e, the entry level sort of exponential growth/decay function.  We all think the situation in Italy sucks.  Well, for simplicity, lets imagine our goal is to get to 1/2 of the instantaneous number of people who require extensive care - #flattenthecurve and all that.

The two curves have the same area - in other words, the same number of people infected for about the same number of time but spread out so that you end up with a spike 1/2 as tall - curve flattened.  I've taken the optimistic Italian case - it started January 31st and roughly peaked today (assuming that the two days declining, etc is true and not an anomaly).

Two weeks on lockdown isn't going to do shit.  It's just not anywhere near enough time.  To flatten the curve, you need a sustained effort to about where the peak occurs - in other words, 11 weeks.  Not 2 weeks.  ELEVEN.  This is just math.  To get to a peak ~ 1/2 as high, you need to sustain whatever flattening you're going to do till you peak and then HOPE that nature takes over from there and you can relax your constraints.  That's assuming that about 60%-70% of the people can magically develop the herd immunity. 

There are 64,000 cases in Italy.  There are over 61 MILLION Italians.  Their 'herd immunity' rate is 0.1% right now.  As soon as the constraints come off, they're getting right back on the curve.  So are the Chinese.  So are the Koreans, and Japanese. 

The best we can hope for is to hit some sort of equilibrium steady state bouncing around an infection rate that equals your recovery rate until we burn through the population and develop herd immunity or come up with vaccine.  How long will it take at the suppressed rate?  It's taken Italy about 50 days to hit 0.1% herd immunity.  First order guess?  60% of 50*65/0.1 or ~50 years, give or take a decade.  Sometimes, it's just math.

How long CAN you keep a population suppressed?

 

 

image.png.9774f56376429be3f0a3d4d3a20a562b.png

 

 

 

How long can you keep a population oppressed?

Large Chinese cities now consist of huge high rises of 20 or more stories.  It only takes a couple of guards in the lobby.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Wuhan,+Hubei,+China/@30.5024241,114.2914634,11238m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x342eaef8dd85f26f:0x39c2c9ac6c582210!8m2!3d30.592849!4d114.305539

800.jpeg

Things like that are harder to control in the rest of the world.

We've already had all the spring breakers heading home to spread the infection.  The same thing happened in Italy and Britain isn't doing much better.

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2 hours ago, cmilliken said:

 

Yea, Trump is nuts.

Since we're all about 'data' on this site, here's a simple comparative graphic I put together.  Earlier, I pointed out people keep omitting the data from the X-Axis.  This is just a simple normalized bell curve - i.e, the entry level sort of exponential growth/decay function.  We all think the situation in Italy sucks.  Well, for simplicity, lets imagine our goal is to get to 1/2 of the instantaneous number of people who require extensive care - #flattenthecurve and all that.

The two curves have the same area - in other words, the same number of people infected for about the same number of time but spread out so that you end up with a spike 1/2 as tall - curve flattened.  I've taken the optimistic Italian case - it started January 31st and roughly peaked today (assuming that the two days declining, etc is true and not an anomaly).

Two weeks on lockdown isn't going to do shit.  It's just not anywhere near enough time.  To flatten the curve, you need a sustained effort to about where the peak occurs - in other words, 11 weeks.  Not 2 weeks.  ELEVEN.  This is just math.  To get to a peak ~ 1/2 as high, you need to sustain whatever flattening you're going to do till you peak and then HOPE that nature takes over from there and you can relax your constraints.  That's assuming that about 60%-70% of the people can magically develop the herd immunity. 

There are 64,000 cases in Italy.  There are over 61 MILLION Italians.  Their 'herd immunity' rate is 0.1% right now.  As soon as the constraints come off, they're getting right back on the curve.  So are the Chinese.  So are the Koreans, and Japanese. 

The best we can hope for is to hit some sort of equilibrium steady state bouncing around an infection rate that equals your recovery rate until we burn through the population and develop herd immunity or come up with vaccine.  How long will it take at the suppressed rate?  It's taken Italy about 50 days to hit 0.1% herd immunity.  First order guess?  60% of 50*65/0.1 or ~50 years, give or take a decade.  Sometimes, it's just math.

How long CAN you keep a population suppressed?

 

 

image.png.9774f56376429be3f0a3d4d3a20a562b.png

 

 

 

I’m really hoping the Italian outbreak is cresting,   A cdc paper said 45% of the positive swabs on one of the ships (shedding virus at the time of the test) were asymptomatic.   They didn’t say how many later became clinical.   I can’t find my source (cdc.gov).   That would be over 8 months with risk of infection of any spared populations people visit.     Herd immunity is hard to achieve with a long period of shedding, extensive commingling, and a high vulnerability of naive individuals.   It would keep smoldering a long time with fresh flair ups.   I’m hoping most of us aren’t highly vulnerable.    Very few viruses can decimate like smallpox, Spanish Flu or measles (used to kill a couple million people with an outbreak every few years, before public health efforts, and later the vaccine).  This upstart is bad enough without asking it to be one of the worst killers ever.   As somebody correctly observed yesterday, most highly infectious viruses aren’t that virulent, and vice versa.     The immune system has had a lot of field tests against a lot of bugs over the millennia.    It seems a cobbled together mess, but usually works.

This lab Corp test is very specific, but misses 5% of known positive cases.    Simply screening people at the airport will miss about one in  20.  One missed case could restart the whole process if we rely on quarantine.

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9 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

This is interesting.  DeSantis is going to make New Yorkers flying into Florida to self quarantine for 14 days.  Not sure if he can do that?

And what’s to stop them from driving down?


https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/03/23/huge-amounts-of-new-yorkers-flocking-to-florida-gov-desantis-says-in-refusing-lock-down/

It's illegal under the constitution to restrict travel from other states, but the supreme court has jurisdiction and they ain't working right now.  To be honest I am a little surprised that no state has locked its borders down yet.  In the absence of federal leadership it is the first think I would do.  By the time New York is on the downslope in 3 weeks Florida is going to be digging mass graves.

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