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1 hour ago, The Joker said:

18,000 Americans have already died from the flu.  Where are the screaming headlines.  
The threat is nowhere near as bad as the media would like you to believe.  

Have you missed all the CDC is screwing up stories?  
 

Geez, Joker, Do you ever think that there just might be a reason why people are cleaning out places like Costco and Sam's Club? Do us a favor, and let us know when you finally get it. If for no other reason, get smart for your families sake.

The author is Liz Specht,  She holds a bachelor's degree in chemical and biomolecular engineering from Johns Hopkins University, a doctorate in biological sciences from the University of California, San Diego, and postdoctoral research experience from the University of Colorado ...

"I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n

Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n

If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n

Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n"

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n

One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n

How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n

Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor. 18/n

Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n

HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n

We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1…

Lastly, SLOWING the spread has to be our collective goal! Please do your part.

Collectively, we can SAVE LIVES!

Here’s directives from Kings County, Washington State

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Public Health recommendations to protect our community

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx


 

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BTW, I gave Mikey a time out, which will be the same response anyone gets for calling the coronavirus response measures 'hysteria' or peddling misinformation that could hurt someone.

I'm day 9 of symptoms and still in the middle if it. Let me tell you,  getting a viral load from convience store handle much less than getting it from being in a maskless patients face coughing on you

For a couple of years I thought Trump was the problem but increasingly I am thinking that the problem is actually that there are just so many dumb American voters who eat up this sort of crap. There s

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Now, you might get that this is a national emergency, no matter what your ignorant president has to say.

 

 
 
j5Ylnxt2_bigger.jpg
 
American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:
 
96,000,000 infections
 
4,800,000 hospitalizations
 
1,900,000 ICU admissions
 
480,000 deaths
 
vs flu in 2019:
 
35,500,000 infections
 
490,600 hospitalizations
 
49,000 ICU admissions
 
34,200 deaths
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On 3/6/2020 at 4:48 PM, mikewof said:

I think at its most optimistic, the revenues from that might just cover their own costs, but still, as far as I can tell, it's not really a drain on the U.S. Taxpayer, because veterans may have all kinds of health problems with addiction, injuries, PTSD, underlying emotional illness before they even went into the miltiary, BUT, they are apparently good with paying their bills and not over-extending their finances. It's just the nature of spending a chunk of life in a highly regimented living environment, it seems to kind of rewire brains ... at least that's what the statistics show, because the default rate on VA is one of the lowest in the industry, less than 2%.

Mike, Mike, Mike.  Why do you write things like that?  

I know you are an expert on all things military because your father was a WW II combat veteran, bless his heart, but you just can't resist saying stupid shit.

Somebody as well versed in everything about the military must know that all individuals wanting to go into the armed forces undergo a fairly rigorous physical exam, after filling out information regarding their past medical history.  As a matter of fact, there is even a portion of the exam to determine the prospective member's mental status.  Do people lie and cheat to get into the military?  Sure, ever since the draft ended when people lied and cheated to stay out of the military.  

There are penalties for lying about any aspect of past history prior to entering any of the armed forces.   If it is a small lie, the individual more than likely will be allowed to stay.  If it is a big lie about past drug or alcohol abuse, a serious medical problem, or a serious mental illness, they will be discharged and ineligible for any VA benefits.  

Lest you think I am talking out my ass, such as you often do, let me give you a concrete example that the mental health screening of applicants usually works.  

Prior to the endless war in Afghanistan, the suicide rate for active duty and military veterans was considerably lower than the population at large.  The primary reason for this, especially for the vets, was that because the obvious crazies were weeded out at the entrance and examination facility.  I think this is a pretty good indicator that the mental health of military members and vets is more stable than the general population, since suicide is very often a symptom of some kind of underlying mental health issue.

Because of the repeated deployments to Afghanistan over the last 18 years, the nature of the war with no front lines and IEDs liable to blow up almost anyone, etc., unfortunately the suicide rates for both active duty and vets have gone up considerably.  Veterans are now more likely to commit suicide than the general population, especially in the younger age groups.   

As additional anecdotal evidence, in my 6 years of working in the mental health arena while on active duty, I encountered exactly one full blown psychotic military member, a Marine that was probably schizophrenic. Because he was a Marine and I dealt with him on an Army base, I never knew the final diagnosis.  As far as run of the mill mental health issues, the family members that we treated in our mental health clinic in Japan were by far the majority of our clients.  One could make the case that military members are more reluctant to seek out mental health treatment, which is generally true, but if they had serious problems, they were going to end up in treatment whether they wanted to or not.  As far as drug and alcohol problems, the military has had quite a low tolerance for that sort of thing for many years now.  If a soldier tests positive for illegal drugs, that's an automatic discharge.  Soldiers that have one incident involving alcohol, DUI or gross misbehavior are given one chance for treatment, outpatient, inpatient or both.  A second incident would result in a discharge, almost without fail.  

Regarding the recent prevalence of PTSD and suicides, at least for the Army personnel, I will place a large amount of the blame on the upper level command for ignoring the issue for far too long.  When I was teaching in the Behavioral Science Division at the Army Medical Department Center and School at FT Sam Houston, TX, in 1992-'94, we were the Army proponent for all matters concerning mental health, the subject matter experts as it were.  The Army doctrine on combat stress was being rewritten completely, a colonel psychiatrist in our division, a recognized expert in the field, was supervising the writing of the new manual to delineate procedures for identification, prevention, and treatment of combat stress.  We offered to travel to any and all Army units to help them understand and familiarize themselves with the new information.  For the most part we were completely ignored.  It was a very frustrating experience and I remember telling some of my co-workers that someday this would bite the Army in the ass big time.  Unfortunately that day came about 10 years later. 

In addition, in while I was in Japan I developed and implemented a 3 day 'Train the Trainer' program for all of the units on our base to offer a quick and easy 1 day program for designated soldiers from each unit to raise awareness about suicide prevention and some simple ways to help individuals in their units in distress and how to access help.  After the 3 day training each trainer left the class with basic knowledge about suicide, a complete package of training materials including a video tape and a simple lesson plan to take back to their units and present it to their troops. I ended up getting the 3 star commanding general to 'encourage' each unit on our base to send soldiers to this training, as I had little success in convincing the unit commanders that it was a valuable thing to do.  The usual response was "My soldiers are tough, we don't need that stuff."  The program eventually got some notice at big Army (and I got some recognition) but not enough to help much.  In recent years the military and the VA have spent millions of dollars developing such programs because of the drastic increase in the suicide numbers.  I thought about dusting off my program, updating it and selling it to the military for a lot of money, but I never did.  I could have made a good business of it.

Please Mike, put down the bong, don't be an ass and don't diss the many fine men and women of the armed forces.  Since the mid '80s the US military is the finest, well led, most effective, lethal and professional military the US has ever had, in spite of some stupid decisions that I outlined above, and in spite of Trumps bullshit claim that the military was completely depleted when he took office.  

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On 3/4/2020 at 6:22 PM, Fakenews said:

Matt Gaetz is not taking Coronavirus lightly. 
 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gas-act-florida-rep-matt-gaetz-wears-mask-coronavirus-vote-n1150071

I’m sure the families of those who have died are getting a kick out of this...

One of those deaths was a person in his district. He did the obligatory T&P.

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1 hour ago, jerseyguy said:

One of those deaths was a person in his district. He did the obligatory T&P.

I hope the family and friends of the victim remember that in November. Along with everyone else in his district. 

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Grandiose statements, lies, denial.

They are all symptoms of fear.

I think it can be said that anyone should be very concerned about this virus and be keeping a eye on the local news.

Fear is a normal reaction when faced with a threat you cant see or smell but you can be sensible

Very reassuring vid from a sufferer

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamond-princess-explains-what-the-illness-feels-like-80075845933

 

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7 hours ago, Ed Lada said:

Mike, Mike, Mike.  Why do you write things like that?  

I know you are an expert on all things military because your father was a WW II combat veteran, bless his heart, but you just can't resist saying stupid shit.

Somebody as well versed in everything about the military must know that all individuals wanting to go into the armed forces undergo a fairly rigorous physical exam, after filling out information regarding their past medical history.  As a matter of fact, there is even a portion of the exam to determine the prospective member's mental status.  Do people lie and cheat to get into the military?  Sure, ever since the draft ended when people lied and cheated to stay out of the military.  

There are penalties for lying about any aspect of past history prior to entering any of the armed forces.   If it is a small lie, the individual more than likely will be allowed to stay.  If it is a big lie about past drug or alcohol abuse, a serious medical problem, or a serious mental illness, they will be discharged and ineligible for any VA benefits.  

Lest you think I am talking out my ass, such as you often do, let me give you a concrete example that the mental health screening of applicants usually works.  

Prior to the endless war in Afghanistan, the suicide rate for active duty and military veterans was considerably lower than the population at large.  The primary reason for this, especially for the vets, was that because the obvious crazies were weeded out at the entrance and examination facility.  I think this is a pretty good indicator that the mental health of military members and vets is more stable than the general population, since suicide is very often a symptom of some kind of underlying mental health issue.

Because of the repeated deployments to Afghanistan over the last 18 years, the nature of the war with no front lines and IEDs liable to blow up almost anyone, etc., unfortunately the suicide rates for both active duty and vets have gone up considerably.  Veterans are now more likely to commit suicide than the general population, especially in the younger age groups.   

As additional anecdotal evidence, in my 6 years of working in the mental health arena while on active duty, I encountered exactly one full blown psychotic military member, a Marine that was probably schizophrenic. Because he was a Marine and I dealt with him on an Army base, I never knew the final diagnosis.  As far as run of the mill mental health issues, the family members that we treated in our mental health clinic in Japan were by far the majority of our clients.  One could make the case that military members are more reluctant to seek out mental health treatment, which is generally true, but if they had serious problems, they were going to end up in treatment whether they wanted to or not.  As far as drug and alcohol problems, the military has had quite a low tolerance for that sort of thing for many years now.  If a soldier tests positive for illegal drugs, that's an automatic discharge.  Soldiers that have one incident involving alcohol, DUI or gross misbehavior are given one chance for treatment, outpatient, inpatient or both.  A second incident would result in a discharge, almost without fail.  

Regarding the recent prevalence of PTSD and suicides, at least for the Army personnel, I will place a large amount of the blame on the upper level command for ignoring the issue for far too long.  When I was teaching in the Behavioral Science Division at the Army Medical Department Center and School at FT Sam Houston, TX, in 1992-'94, we were the Army proponent for all matters concerning mental health, the subject matter experts as it were.  The Army doctrine on combat stress was being rewritten completely, a colonel psychiatrist in our division, a recognized expert in the field, was supervising the writing of the new manual to delineate procedures for identification, prevention, and treatment of combat stress.  We offered to travel to any and all Army units to help them understand and familiarize themselves with the new information.  For the most part we were completely ignored.  It was a very frustrating experience and I remember telling some of my co-workers that someday this would bite the Army in the ass big time.  Unfortunately that day came about 10 years later. 

In addition, in while I was in Japan I developed and implemented a 3 day 'Train the Trainer' program for all of the units on our base to offer a quick and easy 1 day program for designated soldiers from each unit to raise awareness about suicide prevention and some simple ways to help individuals in their units in distress and how to access help.  After the 3 day training each trainer left the class with basic knowledge about suicide, a complete package of training materials including a video tape and a simple lesson plan to take back to their units and present it to their troops. I ended up getting the 3 star commanding general to 'encourage' each unit on our base to send soldiers to this training, as I had little success in convincing the unit commanders that it was a valuable thing to do.  The usual response was "My soldiers are tough, we don't need that stuff."  The program eventually got some notice at big Army (and I got some recognition) but not enough to help much.  In recent years the military and the VA have spent millions of dollars developing such programs because of the drastic increase in the suicide numbers.  I thought about dusting off my program, updating it and selling it to the military for a lot of money, but I never did.  I could have made a good business of it.

Please Mike, put down the bong, don't be an ass and don't diss the many fine men and women of the armed forces.  Since the mid '80s the US military is the finest, well led, most effective, lethal and professional military the US has ever had, in spite of some stupid decisions that I outlined above, and in spite of Trumps bullshit claim that the military was completely depleted when he took office.  

With what do you specifically disagree? Are you suggesting that the military is so effective at screening prospective employees that they never hire people with underlying health problems just like every other employer in every other industry in the country?

That's what you seem to suggest there.

And where did I "dis" anyone, other than in your imagination?

If you want to discuss the VA home loans, I'm happy to do that, but I have no idea what I wrote that prompted you to write an unabridged documentation of your work history, or what in the world it has to do with defaults on VA loans.

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7 hours ago, badlatitude said:

Now, you might get that this is a national emergency, no matter what your ignorant president has to say.

 

 
 
j5Ylnxt2_bigger.jpg
 
American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:
 
96,000,000 infections
 
4,800,000 hospitalizations
 
1,900,000 ICU admissions
 
480,000 deaths
 
vs flu in 2019:
 
35,500,000 infections
 
490,600 hospitalizations
 
49,000 ICU admissions
 
34,200 deaths

So from a reasonable distribution from our current 20 deaths, we'll thus see something like 8,000 deaths from this current coronavirus by next Sunday and about 26,000 deaths two Sundays from now.

My guess based on the distribution already published ... less than 100 deaths by this time next week, and less than 240 deaths by two weeks from now.

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10 minutes ago, mikewof said:

So from a reasonable distribution from our current 20 deaths, we'll thus see something like 8,000 deaths from this current coronavirus by next Sunday and about 26,000 deaths two Sundays from now.

My guess based on the distribution already published ... less than 100 deaths by this time next week, and less than 240 deaths by two weeks from now.

The most disturbing part of all this is that we will likely get a brief relief from the virus in the summer when the heat will reduce numbers, Only to come roaring back in the fall far worse than ever.

 

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27 minutes ago, mikewof said:

So from a reasonable distribution from our current 20 deaths, we'll thus see something like 8,000 deaths from this current coronavirus by next Sunday and about 26,000 deaths two Sundays from now.

My guess based on the distribution already published ... less than 100 deaths by this time next week, and less than 240 deaths by two weeks from now.

The most disturbing part of all this is that we will likely get a brief relief from the virus in the summer when the heat will reduce numbers, Only to come roaring back in the fall far worse than ever.

... In the note, sent to the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, critical care experts Professor Maurizio Cecconi, Professor Antonio Pesenti and Professor Giacomo Grasselli, from the University of Milan, revealed how difficult it had been to treat coronavirus patients. They said: “We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our intensive care units (ICUs), in the range of 10 per cent of all positive patients... We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready!”

They said Italian hospitals had seen “a very high” number of intensive care patients who were admitted “almost entirely” for severe lung failure caused by the virus and needing ventilators to help them breathe. They said hospitals across the UK and Europe needed to prepare for a surge in admissions and cautioned against working “in silos”. They said it was vital hospitals had equipment to protect staff and that staff were trained in wearing the kit. They added: “Increase your total ICU capacity. Identify early hospitals that can manage the initial surge in a safe way. Get ready to prepare ICU areas where to cohort Covid-19 patients – in every hospital if necessary.”...

... In a separate note, Italian intensive care doctor Giuseppe Nattino, from the Lecco province in northern Italy, has shared a clinical summary of the patients his unit has been treating, which doctors described as “frightening” in terms of what it could mean for the UK. The technical note spells out how patients with coronavirus experience a severe infection in all of their lungs, requiring major ventilation support. It also reveals the effect of the virus, which affects blood pressure, the heart, kidneys and liver with patients needing sustained treatment...

... In an alarming development, Dr Nattino said younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions. He added: “The last days are showing a younger population involved as if the elderly and weaker part of the population crashed early and now younger patients, having exhausted their physiological reserves, come to overcrowded, overwhelmed hospitals with little resources left.” ...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html
 
 
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I was at a trauma and critical care symposium today and it ended early because the last doc to present suddenly found himself quarantined today.  Unknown for what. Prolly Norwegian Scabies

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9 hours ago, badlatitude said:

Now, you might get that this is a national emergency, no matter what your ignorant president has to say.

 

 
 
j5Ylnxt2_bigger.jpg
 
American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:
 
...   ...

Any better source for this than somebody's twitter? I just looked thru the A.H.A. coronavirus news webpage & blog, lots of good resources there but no predicted numbers for the country, and certainly nothing like this.

- DSK

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I'd think it's going to be really hard to predict this. There's so much the scientists don't know for sure, so much unreliability in data.

There's the unpredictability of people, Unlike big epidemics 100 years ago, people move around more, socialise more, have a bigger and more diverse networks.

OTOH, people are supposedly better educated, able to access information and cleaner.

Some of us have better access to hospitals and health care (Not a zing, just a fact)

Frustrating as it is, we are not going to predict shit for a few weeks? months? and a decent sample of unfortunate deaths.'

The numbers just aren't big enough yet. Some countries have much less than 3% some much much more..But those can be 3 deaths out of 55 all three from a cruise ship or an OAC facility.

Balance..don't panic people, Don't under inform  and don't send mixed messages the longer this can be contained, the longer governments have to get prepared.

I'd like to see it get to the point were all households can be delivered home test kits, Not impossible. ..and don't run out of toilet paper.

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1
25 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Any better source for this than somebody's twitter? I just looked thru the A.H.A. coronavirus news webpage & blog, lots of good resources there but no predicted numbers for the country, and certainly nothing like this.

- DSK

No. But I did get those same numbers from an alternate source, my niece who is an epidemiologist.  She told me that the numbers are confidential for now, as they are afraid of starting a panic. Seth Bannon, the person who published those numbers has an interesting background here https://www.fifty.vc/team/seth-bannon 

I realize that this is weak sauce, especially if a premature summer kills the virus until fall. Much remains to be seen, but nothing is better than being prepared. Something that you won't hear from the Trump admin.

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Zink.

I think all anyone can do at the moment is use the early days to get healthy and do what we can to boost immune systems.

I asked my doctor months ago how doctors keep from getting sick, she said they dose up on Zink. She also said you can overdose so dont go and start taking massive doses and there's no point if you're already sick. 

https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/Zinc-HealthProfessional/

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6 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Zink.

I think all anyone can do at the moment is use the early days to get healthy and do what we can to boost immune systems.

I asked my doctor months ago how doctors keep from getting sick, she said they dose up on Zink. She also said you can overdose so dont go and start taking massive doses and there's no point if you're already sick. 

https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/Zinc-HealthProfessional/

Zinc. :rolleyes:

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3 hours ago, badlatitude said:

The most disturbing part of all this is that we will likely get a brief relief from the virus in the summer when the heat will reduce numbers, Only to come roaring back in the fall far worse than ever.

Maybe, but we don't have exposure to it because it jumped across species all of a sudden. But it still is communicable in the warm months, so perhaps we'll all be exposed to it and be relatively safe because of the better lung health in the warm months. Then in the fall when its variants hit, we'll already have some immunity, like the common cold coronavirus.

For all we know, by next flu season this coronavirus may be about as deadly as all the other common cold coronaviruses and we'll be back to debating flu vaccines.

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4 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Totally calling Bullshit on 480,000 deaths as well.  But I’ll take the over on 100 deaths by this time next week.

How do they classify a death from this virus?

If someone dies from pneumonia and they're negative for the virus then they've died from pneumonia.

f someone dies from pneumonia and they're positive for the virus then they've died from the virus?

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2 hours ago, Keith said:

It might help the rest of the world, if China was forthcoming on whats really happening on the ground there..

 

Pretty hard for the US to bitch considering the administration's opacity on the virus.

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I don't understand all the talk about summer and a respite.  Seems to me about half the cases are in places that don't really have summer and winter, and are pretty warm all the time.

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5 hours ago, mikewof said:

With what do you specifically disagree? Are you suggesting that the military is so effective at screening prospective employees that they never hire people with underlying health problems just like every other employer in every other industry in the country?

That's what you seem to suggest there.

And where did I "dis" anyone, other than in your imagination?

If you want to discuss the VA home loans, I'm happy to do that, but I have no idea what I wrote that prompted you to write an unabridged documentation of your work history, or what in the world it has to do with defaults on VA loans.

Mike, you were quite clear in what you wrote.  I was quite clear in refuting your BS.  

You don't know fuck all about the military or the VA.  

Google is your friend, as well as sobriety.

No please fuck off.

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I don't understand all the talk about summer and a respite.  Seems to me about half the cases are in places that don't really have summer and winter, and are pretty warm all the time.

Wishful thinking?

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7 hours ago, Ishmael said:

Zinc. :rolleyes:

No, not zinc, silver.

 

N.Y. attorney general to televangelist Jim Bakker: Stop peddling unproven coronavirus cures

Excerpt -

On Feb. 12, just as the novel coronavirus was starting to make worldwide headlines, Bakker asked a guest on his TV show whether the silver tonic he sells on his website just might cure this new illness as well.

“It hasn’t been tested on this strain of the coronavirus, but it’s been tested on other strains of the coronavirus, and has been able to eliminate it within 12 hours. Totally eliminates it, kills it, deactivates it and then it boosts your immune system,” said guest Sherrill Sellman, as Bakker interjected, “yeah, yeah.”

Other panelists on the TV set murmured their approval as well. One exclaimed: “That’s so good!”

As they talked, an advertisement was plastered across the screen: Those seeking a cure for coronavirus or another illness could get four tubes of Silver Solution gel for $80 at JimBakkerShow.com. Or, for $125, they could buy a variety pack of two bottles of Silver Solution liquid, two tubes of gel and three lozenges.

That was false advertising, New York’s top prosecutor’s office claimed in a cease-and-desist letter to Bakker this week.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2020/03/05/ny-attorney-general-televangelist-jim-bakker-stop-peddling-unproven-coronavirus-cures/

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18 minutes ago, Sean said:

No, not zinc, silver.

 

N.Y. attorney general to televangelist Jim Bakker: Stop peddling unproven coronavirus cures

Excerpt -

On Feb. 12, just as the novel coronavirus was starting to make worldwide headlines, Bakker asked a guest on his TV show whether the silver tonic he sells on his website just might cure this new illness as well.

“It hasn’t been tested on this strain of the coronavirus.......

 

The problem with these epidemics is that they don't kill enough of the right people

- DSK

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4 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

 

The problem with these epidemics is that they don't kill enough of the right people

- DSK

C'mon Steam, this is God's messenger talking.

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5 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I don't understand all the talk about summer and a respite.  Seems to me about half the cases are in places that don't really have summer and winter, and are pretty warm all the time.

Bearing in mind that people are looking for solace in a warm-up suppressing viral spread, as it gets warm in the Northern Hemisphere, what happens in the Southern? 

It's like this only matters north of the Equator.

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14 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

Bearing in mind that people are looking for solace in a warm-up suppressing viral spread, as it gets warm in the Northern Hemisphere, what happens in the Southern? 

It's like this only matters north of the Equator.

You must not have seen Trump’s map of the world.

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6 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I don't understand all the talk about summer and a respite.  Seems to me about half the cases are in places that don't really have summer and winter, and are pretty warm all the time.

Sunlight and people beng more active and spending more time outside.

UV kills viruses and unless you are in a city or attending crowded events you are less likely to be exposed.

The virus itself is not a killer.  But, it does make you susceptible to pneumonia which does kill those with weakened vascular and respiratory systems.

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21 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

Sunlight and people beng more active and spending more time outside.

UV kills viruses and unless you are in a city or attending crowded events you are less likely to be exposed.

The virus itself is not a killer.  But, it does make you susceptible to pneumonia which does kill those with weakened vascular and respiratory systems.

Oh, I think a virus that kills your lung cells can be fatal

- DSK

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30 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

Sunlight and people beng more active and spending more time outside.

UV kills viruses and unless you are in a city or attending crowded events you are less likely to be exposed.

The virus itself is not a killer.  But, it does make you susceptible to pneumonia which does kill those with weakened vascular and respiratory systems.

Crackers

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7 hours ago, Ed Lada said:

Mike, you were quite clear in what you wrote.  I was quite clear in refuting your BS.  

You don't know fuck all about the military or the VA.  

Google is your friend, as well as sobriety.

No please fuck off.

Yes. I was very clear what I wrote; the default rate for VA loans is one of the lowest in the industry, and it's a worthwhile endeavor regardless the other VA costs of treating medical conditions in the people who have those conditions.

I suspect you were PUI in your first response, and now in the light of day, your realized that you "pulled a Grumpy." 

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26 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Oh, I think a virus that kills your lung cells can be fatal

- DSK

I haven't seen anything to suggest that it kills lung cells. 

The issue with pneumonia and cardiovascular failure is that a patient who already has reduced lung function, and then gets even a moderate amount of additional fluid in their lungs from yet another infection then finds that even a common cold (which is what a Coronovirus usually is) will be "the straw that breaks the camel's back."

If the camel isn't already loaded down with supplies, that one straw will mean nothing.

This particular Coronovirus only seems to differ from a normal (and usually harmless Coronovirus) in that it jumped species just a short time ago, and our collective immunity hasn't had time to develop yet.

Unlike flu, the age distribution suggests that this virus is not killing otherwise healthy people.

Given that, I'll bet that when the dust settles, the epidemiologists find that this virus was most deadly to people who already had reduced lung function, like smokers and vapers.

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7 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I don't understand all the talk about summer and a respite.  Seems to me about half the cases are in places that don't really have summer and winter, and are pretty warm all the time.

Coronaviruses almost always result in either nothing or just a common cold.

Sun and UV is a disinfectant. But Coronaviruses are notoriously weak outside of the body anyway. The warm months may barely impact the transmission of the virus, but when people spend less time indoors, they are then less exposed to the things that cause respiratory distress like mold, dust and dry air. 

COPD, asthma and pneumonia are worse in the winter because the air quality indoors is something like 100x worse than outdoors, unless you're in a place with really bad air pollution, like China.

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12 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Totally calling Bullshit on 480,000 deaths as well.  But I’ll take the over on 100 deaths by this time next week.

Okay, you have the over. 

We're currently at 19, so six more days to go.

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22 minutes ago, mikewof said:
48 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Oh, I think a virus that kills your lung cells can be fatal

 

I haven't seen anything to suggest that it kills lung cells.   ...

 

I haven't seen anything to "suggest" it kills lung cells, it's well proven.

Do you understand how viruses work? Their outer covering (in this case, the "corona" or crown-like part) matches the cell's own code for what it lets in, whereupon the viruses DNA takes over the cell and it replicates virus. In almost all cases, te infected cell pumps out virus at the expense of all other activities, until the cell simply disintegrates.

We call that "killed" where I come from.

- DSK

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8 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

 

I haven't seen anything to "suggest" it kills lung cells, it's well proven.

Do you understand how viruses work? Their outer covering (in this case, the "corona" or crown-like part) matches the cell's own code for what it lets in, whereupon the viruses DNA takes over the cell and it replicates virus. In almost all cases, te infected cell pumps out virus at the expense of all other activities, until the cell simply disintegrates.

We call that "killed" where I come from.

- DSK

Here is image of cell lysis on account of virus infection.  It's what makes viruses so nasty.  The pathogenesis from bacteria is mostly from the waste they produce and the way they upset homeostasis.  But viruses take over cells and make them create more viruses.  Bacteria is like a tornado, viruses are like a murderous cult-- insidious. 

replication+of+virus.bmp

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As usual the Joke’s premise is being shown to be spectacularly wrong.

Here’s a good article on how Trump and his low information admin are fucking up the response to Coronavirus.  It would be nice to have team who’s primary concern isn’t flattering the fat turd.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/07/trump-coronavirus-management-style-123465

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33 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Coronaviruses almost always result in either nothing or just a common cold.

Sun and UV is a disinfectant. But Coronaviruses are notoriously weak outside of the body anyway. The warm months may barely impact the transmission of the virus, but when people spend less time indoors, they are then less exposed to the things that cause respiratory distress like mold, dust and dry air. 

COPD, asthma and pneumonia are worse in the winter because the air quality indoors is something like 100x worse than outdoors, unless you're in a place with really bad air pollution, like China.

They higher temperatures make the aerosolized droplets evaporate faster too and, more importantly, people spread out and spend less time in close proximity.

Many people who are infected don't feel particularly sick and when the weather is nice, there's also a bit of a placebo effect.  People just just go out and do their thing, not even "realizing" they're sick.  But they're still spreading it.

Nov 2020 - Feb 2021 is going to be rough.  In the west, there will be some sort of vaccine added to the flu shot, even if it's only broad based and not super well targeted, but it will still help.  Other parts of the developing world?  Not so much.

 

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41 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Yes. I was very clear what I wrote; the default rate for VA loans is one of the lowest in the industry, and it's a worthwhile endeavor regardless the other VA costs of treating medical conditions in the people who have those conditions.

I suspect you were PUI in your first response, and now in the light of day, your realized that you "pulled a Grumpy." 

I asked you nicely before not to be an ass.  Apparently you still want to be one.

Do you remember saying this, or were you too drunk?

On 3/6/2020 at 4:48 PM, mikewof said:

...because veterans may have all kinds of health problems with addiction, injuries, PTSD, underlying emotional illness before they even went into the miltiary, BUT, they are apparently good with paying their bills...

You don't think that's a bit insulting you stupid fuck?

I am pretty sure I am not the only one that would reasonably take offense at such a statement.

Are you too fucking dense to figure out how that applied to what I wrote in my earlier response to you?  (You don't have to answer, it was a rhetorical question.)

I realize you learned everything you everything you know about the military from comic books and playing with little green army men, but maybe you should realize that in no ways qualifies you to constantly claim to know something about the military.  Since you love the military so much and are such an authority on it, given your father was a veteran and all, What kept you out of the military, the last time I knew a minuscule penis wasn't a disqualifying medical condition, although your wife told me she isn't too happy about it.

By the way Mike, how old was your father when he died?  He had to be well into his 40s when you were born, which would put him well into his 90s when he died.  Are you making up shit about your father?  Like you do about so many other things.  Was he an alcoholic or drug addict when he went into the Army?  Did he have PTSD or other underlying emotional illness at the time.  So many people that join the military do you know.  I wonder if you even knew your father, you know, the one you claim that had a spark plug factory, or maybe it was a butt plug factory, you do get confused at times.  Well it's probably your alcohol problem, is it hereditary?  I know it sucks and most treatments don't work but at least you could go to an AA meeting sometime. 

I'll let you get back to your masturbation session now.   Your wife tells me you don't even do that well either.  And she asked me to tell you to stop beating her too, so please stop that, it isn't nice.

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

 

I haven't seen anything to "suggest" it kills lung cells, it's well proven.

Do you understand how viruses work? Their outer covering (in this case, the "corona" or crown-like part) matches the cell's own code for what it lets in, whereupon the viruses DNA takes over the cell and it replicates virus. In almost all cases, te infected cell pumps out virus at the expense of all other activities, until the cell simply disintegrates.

We call that "killed" where I come from.

- DSK

That's what causes the fluid in the lungs when you have pneumonia or flu or a cold.

So if you want to say that this particular Coronavirus is "killing those alveoli", then fine, but so is most everything else, including all those other Conoviruses that cause the common cold. The mechanism you describe must be pretty mild, because most people who are exposed to that virus show little if any effect from it.

To what you wrote in bold up there, in "almost all cases" the infection seems to cause very little problem to the person who is infected. We are infected by thousands of viruses that we don't even bother to identify.

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32 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Summer is when people travel and interact in large groups far more frequently in the us. Concerts, sport ball, camps, etc.

Yes, but it's not the virus that's killing people as much as the virus's impact on existing health problems like pneumonia, COPD, etc.. Those are documented to be worse in the cold months. This current Coronavirus seems to be relatively harmless to healthy people.

So if you're suggesting that the summer is when the millions are going to start dropping dead from this virus then have at it. But right now, in the USA we're at 19 deaths, so we have a long way to go before we hit 450,000, or even 100.

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56 minutes ago, Ed Lada said:

I asked you nicely before not to be an ass.  Apparently you still want to be one.

Do you remember saying this, or were you too drunk?

You don't think that's a bit insulting you stupid fuck?

I am pretty sure I am not the only one that would reasonably take offense at such a statement.

Are you too fucking dense to figure out how that applied to what I wrote in my earlier response to you?  (You don't have to answer, it was a rhetorical question.)

I realize you learned everything you everything you know about the military from comic books and playing with little green army men, but maybe you should realize that in no ways qualifies you to constantly claim to know something about the military.  Since you love the military so much and are such an authority on it, given your father was a veteran and all, What kept you out of the military, the last time I knew a minuscule penis wasn't a disqualifying medical condition, although your wife told me she isn't too happy about it.

By the way Mike, how old was your father when he died?  He had to be well into his 40s when you were born, which would put him well into his 90s when he died.  Are you making up shit about your father?  Like you do about so many other things.  Was he an alcoholic or drug addict when he went into the Army?  Did he have PTSD or other underlying emotional illness at the time.  So many people that join the military do you know.  I wonder if you even knew your father, you know, the one you claim that had a spark plug factory, or maybe it was a butt plug factory, you do get confused at times.  Well it's probably your alcohol problem, is it hereditary?  I know it sucks and most treatments don't work but at least you could go to an AA meeting sometime. 

I'll let you get back to your masturbation session now.   Your wife tells me you don't even do that well either.  And she asked me to tell you to stop beating her too, so please stop that, it isn't nice.

Yes, Veterans may have had all kinds of health problems before they went into the military, or they may have developed them there, or they may have had none when they went in and they came out healthy. How is that different than any other occupation? In your first PUI post you were going on and on about how the military supposedly screens so well that they don't let in people with the potential for later health problems.

The fact that the VA hospitals are full of patients strongly suggests that veterans are just as prone to illness as the rest of society. Are you still suggesting that something about the job makes them different? It's not a particularly dangerous job compared to things like roofing, commercial fishing, logging or farm workers, so obviously they're either getting sick on the job or before they went into the job or after the job.

And no, I don't find it insulting, but given your abundance of insults about my "wife" and my dad and me, I can see why you might take even the flap of a butterfly's wing to be "insulting."

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1 hour ago, Clove Hitch said:

Here is image of cell lysis on account of virus infection.  It's what makes viruses so nasty.  The pathogenesis from bacteria is mostly from the waste they produce and the way they upset homeostasis.  But viruses take over cells and make them create more viruses.  Bacteria is like a tornado, viruses are like a murderous cult-- insidious. 

replication+of+virus.bmp

And, after a mild infection the lungs can recover and heal that damage unless your lungs are already in bad shape from other problems.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3378727/

From the cite:

Recently, it has become increasingly clear that in addition to control of excess inflammation and virus elimination, the resolution of infection requires an active repair process, which is necessary to regain normal respiratory function and restore the lungs to homeostasis. The repair response must re-establish the epithelial barrier and regenerate the microarchitecture of the lung. Emerging areas of research have highlighted the importance of innate immune cells, particularly the newly described innate lymphoid cells, as well as alternatively activated macrophages and pulmonary stem cells in the repair process. The mechanisms by which respiratory viruses may impede or alter the repair response will be important areas of research for identifying therapeutic targets aimed at limiting virus and host mediated injury and expediting recovery.

 

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12 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Oh yes, the extreme cold of a Bay Area winter that forces everyone indoors :lol:

the greatest risk is overloading the healthcare system and people with other ailments dieing because there isn’t enough capacity to treat. Something like 10% of Italian cases are ending up in the ICU; hospitals have been forced to turn away other patients and hospital staff have contracted the virus and are unable to work.

That's indoor air pollution for you. Indoor air is loaded with mold, toxins, particulates and is often dry to the point that the lungs are effected. Even in the USA, where our outdoor air quality is often decent compared to Asia, indoor air holds up to five times more contaminants than outdoor air.

We'll all eventually be exposed to this new virus, its virulent. So either you're worried about dropping dead from it, or you have the take of Saorsa and I that what we're seeing now has more to do with an inability to interpret the statistics of a new virus, than it being particularly deadly. If you look at the age distribution, it seems that this Coronavirus is far less deadly than seasonal flu for healthy people. But the Chicken Little crowd does what the Chicken Little crowd likes to do.

And it might turn out that Saorsa and I are completely wrong, and this new virus is going to kill millions of people in a way that will make the Spanish Flu pandemic look mild. But I doubt it.

In fact, I'm of the crew who thinks that these viruses and infections are completely natural things that happen to healthy people.

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5 minutes ago, mikewof said:

That's indoor air pollution for you. Indoor air is loaded with mold, toxins, particulates and is often dry to the point that the lungs are effected. Even in the USA, where our outdoor air quality is often decent compared to Asia, indoor air holds up to five times more contaminants than outdoor air.

We'll all eventually be exposed to this new virus, its virulent. So either you're worried about dropping dead from it, or you have the take of Saorsa and I that what we're seeing now has more to do with an inability to interpret the statistics of a new virus, than it being particularly deadly. If you look at the age distribution, it seems that this Coronavirus is far less deadly than seasonal flu for otherwise healthy people.

Don’t think there enough evidence to totally validate that conclusion.  It was certainly fatal for two 30 something doctors in Wuhan Province.

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

Don’t think there enough evidence to totally validate that conclusion.  It was certainly fatal for two 30 something doctors in Wuhan Province.

Yep, two who were in daily prolonged contact with infected patients. 

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

Don’t think there enough evidence to totally validate that conclusion.  It was certainly fatal for two 30 something doctors in Wuhan Province.

Did those doctors in Wuhan die from the cornavirus or from the associated infections that killed all those over-sixty people, like community pneumonia?

I know they all tested positive for the virus, but what actually killed them?

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3 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Did those doctors in Wuhan die from the cornavirus or from the associated infections that killed all those over-sixty people, like community pneumonia?

I know they all tested positive for the virus, but what actually killed them?

Cancer?

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33 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Did those doctors in Wuhan die from the cornavirus or from the associated infections that killed all those over-sixty people, like community pneumonia?

I know they all tested positive for the virus, but what actually killed them?

Heart failure. The final cause of death for everyone.

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4 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

Good point. According to Mike's pseudo logic,  pneumonia didn't kill anybody. It was the heart stopping that did it.

WTF?

The actual statistics on this actual disease show that people who don't have underlying health problems don't often die of this particular coronavirus.

I read some of the medical updates and I'm no immunologist, but when I read that the cause of death in a particular case isn't listed as "COVID-19" but rather "COV-19 pneumonia" then I ask, how do they know if they died of pneumonia or COVI-19?

So here ya go, Clove Hitch, take a look at an actual medical report, rather than some of the actual pseudo logic in Sailing Anarchy, and then please post back about your new -- hopefully revised -- definition of what "pseudo" actually means

https://www.rsna.org/news/2020/January/Coronavirus-Update

As of Feb. 14, 2020, a change in diagnosis criteria has added numerous COVID-19 cases reported. Until now, cases had only been confirmed by lab tests finding the virus in swab samples from patients. But in Hubei province, China, patients with CT chest imaging showing the signature pneumonia seen in COVID-19 cases over the last several weeks were just added to the case totals. 

Kinda getting the point now? So people are dying from pneumonia when they swab negative for COVID-19, but they're dying from "COVID-19 pneumonia" when they swab positive for COVID-19. Given that the vast majority of people who swab positive for COVID-19 show no symptoms at all, how do we gauge the relative contribution of how much worse COVID-19 makes pneumonia unless we have a certified COVID-19 negative test group to compare pneumonia mortality?

I may have only stayed a Holiday Inn, but the only way I know of how to compare apples with apples here is to have a COVID-19 positive test group and a COVID-19 negative test group. Have you seen any data on such a thing? I have not, but since you know what "pseudo logic" means, now you can step up and provide me with a link that shows these two comparisons, or tell me how we can correctly compared mortality from regular pneumonia versus COVID-19 pneumonia.

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54 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

If there’s a chance for you two jackasses to google something and become overnight experts that know more than the experts that’s what you and soreass do, because it’s who you are. It’s the depressingly dark comedy of you fuckwhits.

what killed them? Someone fed 37,000 mikewof posts into google translate and played them on a speaker the doctors killed themselves before a thousand of your posts, you insufferable pimple on the herpes sore on the ass of humanity.

You've added nothing to this conversation so far. You have written nothing on this topic other than noise.

If you can contribute something of value, I'll try to respond.

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1 hour ago, El Boracho said:

Asphyxiation.

Yes. That's what kills people who have pneumonia, it's a kind of asphyxiation, because a layer of fluid surrounds a sufficient amount of alveoli to inhibit oxygen-blood exchange. We don't have gills, and alveoli don't work in water because the mass density is 1000x too high for the exchange membrane feature length.

So, two patients in two different rooms die of pneumonia. One tested positive for Disease X, and the other tested negative for Disease X. How can we measure the relative contribution of Disease X to the mortality of pneumonia? You're obviously knowledgeable on this subject, because most people don't realize that pneumonia is a form of drowning.

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4 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

Mike, you didn't even know that viruses destroy tissue. It's ok to not know things.  Before I answer your question I'm going to need to know what "regular" pneumonia is.

Did you read the link?

"Regular pneumonia" is pneumonia in someone who swabs negative for COVID-19

"COVID-19 pneumonia" is pneumonia in someone who swabs positive for COVID-19.

 

"Community acquired pneumonia can come from all kinds of sources, COVID-19 being only one of many.

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So I would start with the question "does covid19 destroy lung tissue and trigger inflammation cascade?"  If the answer is yes, then we have a pretty good idea that they died of covid 19 pnemonia 

On the other hand, if they test negative for covid19, but die of pnemonia, I would say the pnemonia was caused by some thing else.  Aspiration? Bacteria? Flu? 

I don't understand your confusion.

 

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54 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Heart failure. The final cause of death for everyone.

Yes, exactly. my post saying "asphyxiation" was sarcastic: Should every death certificate simply say 'Heart Failure'? No. Might as well just say death is caused by birth, or conception.

In all this mess us amateurs need to leave the medicine to the trained professionals. I would normally follow CDC advice, but it seems there has recently been some detrimental political corruption of that institute by the burn it down crowd.

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1 minute ago, Clove Hitch said:

So I would start with the question "does covid19 destroy lung tissue and trigger inflammation cascade?"  If the answer is yes, then we have a pretty good idea that they died of covid 19 pnemonia 

On the other hand, if they test negative for covid19, but die of pnemonia, I would say the pnemonia was caused by some thing else.  Aspiration? Bacteria? Flu? 

I don't understand your confusion.

 

 

"Does COVID-19 destroy lung tissue and trigger inflammation?" Yes, all types of Coronavirus do that, from the common cold to SARS, so why would COVID-19 be any different?

You used pseudo logic to answer the next part after the "yes" so I'll try to get you to see why you're not actually answering the question.

Two people in two separate hospital rooms. One tests positive for COVID-19, one test negative. Both of them die from pneumonia. We have now established that one died from COVID-19 pneumonia, and one died from pneumonia. The person who died from COVID-19 pneumonia, did they contract their pneumonia from the actual process of COVID-19, or the same way the regular pneumonia patient did?

Short of testing both patients for every virus and microbe know to science, the only way we can really know is to look at the statistics of the disease, and that needs a functional sample size. Here is one of the first links from before they identified COVID-19, https://www.livescience.com/china-mystery-pneumonia-is-not-sars.html

Please consider reading that, it's very short.

Now that we know what we know, has the total number of pneumonia cases gone up or down so far this year? Every year in the USA, we have some 50,000 deaths from community pneumonia. So based on the logic presented here in SA, this year we thus have our normal 50,000-some deaths from pneumonia, plus another 50,000-some deaths from COVID-19 pneumonia, right?

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On 3/7/2020 at 7:39 AM, The Joker said:

Yes minor mistake    Obama would have said.  “I’ve made it a priority to CDC to get enough test kits available so that everyone that needs to get tested can”   The Media cheers great leadership 

Trump “CDC is doing a great job. everyone that wants to get tested,  can get tested.” 
 Media.  “Liar liar. CDC sucks We are all going to die.” 
 

In both cases there are not enough test kits.  But in Obama’s scenario the media would never ask the question or make an issue about it. 

Obama statement looks to the future “I’ve made it a priority to....get enough test kits available”

Trump is talking about the present “cd IS doing a great job”

it is possible that both could be talking about the same situation (not enough test kits), but

Obama is acknowledging that,

While Trump is engaging in wishful thinking, at best.  
 

But you are no doubt thinking “That’s bullshit!”
 

And granted, with your current mindset (or job description), you are probably thinking it, because you know the Trump/ Farm code, and therefore, you go about filling in information subconsciously, I guess,  into Trump’s statement without posting it, which is a good thing to have up your sleeve!  And shows your belief in Trump’s cause.
 

For example:  
 

-Of course the cdc has been doing a great job all along, who in their right mind could criticize the cdc?

-Everybody who wants to get tested thinks the Caronavirus is liberal, and they’ve made up this whole thing anyway to hurt Trump, so they by definition don’t have it, so what does it matter of anti trump nut jobs might want to to be tested, and can’t ( since it would be negative anyway), so they can wait, while their heads explode from anxiety.  Which you’d like.  
 

And then with that all set up by the undeniable force of your righteous anger, you get to take a killler swipe at the msm.  
 

Everything’s good, right?  You set this ^^^^ up, after all.  It would be cool if you’d fill in the missing parts- lord knows we need a Trump whisperer here.  Please?

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9 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

I'm trying to understand your point because it seems you are saying there is really no way to know that somebody positive for covid19 who dies of pnemonia actually died from covid19.  That isn't your point is it?

 

You keep asking me new questions without answering my original question. Is this a method of avoidance?

I'll answer your new questions when you first answer my original question; Two patients die of community pneumonia, one tests positive for COVID-19, ones tests negative for COVID-19. How can I measure the contribution of COVID-19 to those deaths by pneumonia?

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8 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Two patients die of community pneumonia, one tests positive for COVID-19, ones tests negative for COVID-19. How can I measure the contribution of COVID-19 to those deaths by pneumonia?

You can't. You need more samples.

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1 hour ago, Olsonist said:

You can't. You need more samples.

Exactly my point too.

So in regards to COVID-19, do we currently have a sufficiently large sample size and sample time to know what's actually happening here? After the dust has settled, if COVID-19 is a genuine threat, we should see a significantly larger total number of pneumonia deaths, both from people who test positive and negative for COVID-19.

We are currently at about 20 deaths in the USA that have been attributed to COVID-19. At this same time of the year, beginning of March, we would normally have about 12,500 confirmed deaths from pneumonia, and by the end of the year we would normally see about 50,000 deaths total. Will we see a huge increase of these numbers due to the additional source of pneumonia from COVID-19?

The million-dollar question ... is someone who acquires community pneumonia from COVID-19, in any more danger than someone who acquires pneumonia from any other community virus or microbe? I haven't seen a study yet to suggest that COVID-19 pneumonia is any more lethal than any other pneumonia. China has about 125,000 deaths per year from community-acquired pneumonia. Link.

By this time of the year, China normally has about 30,000 deaths from community-acquired pneumonia, but they have had about 3,000 deaths from COVID-19. Link. Clearly, the number of regular pneumonia deaths is so much larger than the number of COVID-19 pneumonia deaths, that we can't conclude anything for another few months. For all we know, COVID-19 is just a slightly different way to die from regular old community pneumonia, and total deaths from all pneumonias has not actually increased.

We don't know and we don't have any real data yet to tell us.

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4 hours ago, mikewof said:

Did those doctors in Wuhan die from the cornavirus or from the associated infections that killed all those over-sixty people, like community pneumonia?

I know they all tested positive for the virus, but what actually killed them?

 

4 hours ago, El Boracho said:

Asphyxiation.

 

4 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Cancer?

 

4 hours ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

If there’s a chance for you two jackasses to google something and become overnight experts that know more than the experts that’s what you and soreass do, because it’s who you are. It’s the depressingly dark comedy of you fuckwhits.

what killed them? Someone fed 37,000 mikewof posts into google translate and played them on a speaker the doctors killed themselves before a thousand of your posts, you insufferable pimple on the herpes sore on the ass of humanity.

I can't better that.

:indub:

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On 3/7/2020 at 10:39 AM, The Joker said:

Yes minor mistake    Obama would have said.  “I’ve made it a priority to CDC to get enough test kits available so that everyone that needs to get tested can”   The Media cheers great leadership 

Trump “CDC is doing a great job. everyone that wants to get tested,  can get tested.” 
 Media.  “Liar liar. CDC sucks We are all going to die.” 
 

In both cases there are not enough test kits.  But in Obama’s scenario the media would never ask the question or make an issue about it. 

Actually, in Obama's scenario, you create the pandemic team, instead of disbanding it "to save money." And in the Obama era, the scientists would be allowed to speak to the media. 

 

Damn, he made that tan suit look GOOD.

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@mikewof

Covid19 destroys lung tissue and causes pnemonia. If a PT with covid19 dies from pnemonia I'm going to say it was the covid19 that was root cause. However, I am open to the idea that a splinter in their finger from years ago migrated to the patient's lung and caused the fatal pnemonia while they happened to have covid19.

Are you trolling? Or are you really such a tedious sophist?

P.s. I think there is an opportunity for you to learn something else. Just like you didn't know that a virus destroys cells you seem to think pnemonia is a germ in and of itself. Pnemonia can be caused by a lot of things. It does not need a virus or bacteria to cause it. If you get food in your lungs ("aspirate") then you could get pnemonia. This happens with stroke victims that have trouble chewing-swallowing. 

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