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2 minutes ago, Amati said:

December 1?

nah, the Hanks arrived 27 Jan. couple of days before that doc flew in from LA. Seems they've (Hanks) have been symptomatic for a while, could have been brewing well before they left.

Rest assured we will take good care of him.

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BTW, I gave Mikey a time out, which will be the same response anyone gets for calling the coronavirus response measures 'hysteria' or peddling misinformation that could hurt someone.

I'm day 9 of symptoms and still in the middle if it. Let me tell you,  getting a viral load from convience store handle much less than getting it from being in a maskless patients face coughing on you

It is not whether it offends, it is whether it is dangerous. Spreading false information about the dangers of a pandemic can kill people. Most forums have a ratio of between 10 and 100 lurkers to ever

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1 minute ago, Shortforbob said:

nah, the Hanks arrived 27 Jan. couple of days before that doc flew in from LA. Seems they've (Hanks) have been symptomatic for a while, could have been brewing well before they left.

Rest assured we will take good care of him.

More bullshit.  The first US case was in Washington State.  Face it your fucking failed public health care system didn’t prevent our most beloved actor from getting this.   WTF is wrong with your healthcare system. 

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6 minutes ago, The Joker said:

Nope they were there long before it was in America. 

Bullshit :)

 

Tom Hanks, 63, makes a low-key arrival in Australia as he begins filming Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis Presley biopic

By Caleb Taylor For Daily Mail Australia

Published: 23:40 GMT, 26 January 2020 | Updated: 23:46 GMT, 26 January 2020

 

 

Hollywood icon Tom Hanks is set to star in the upcoming Elvis Presley biopic directed by Baz Luhrmann. 

And the two-time Oscar winner cut a casual figure on Sunday as he touched down at Gold Coast Airport.

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3 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

nah, the Hanks arrived 27 Jan. couple of days before that doc flew in from LA. Seems they've (Hanks) have been symptomatic for a while, could have been brewing well before they left.

Rest assured we will take good care of him.

+1. We know that.  Thanks.

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3 minutes ago, The Joker said:

I’m pretty sure the US had just as many, if not more super spreaders 

Likely. But then you actually have many more cases, that aren’t known because of your limited testing. Mind you, chances are that most of them were mild, so they were self-treated at home like a common flu. The corresponding cases in Italy are counted within the 12,000

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Just now, Shortforbob said:

Bullshit :)

 

Tom Hanks, 63, makes a low-key arrival in Australia as he begins filming Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis Presley biopic

By Caleb Taylor For Daily Mail Australia

Published: 23:40 GMT, 26 January 2020 | Updated: 23:46 GMT, 26 January 2020

 

 

Hollywood icon Tom Hanks is set to star in the upcoming Elvis Presley biopic directed by Baz Luhrmann. 

And the two-time Oscar winner cut a casual figure on Sunday as he touched down at Gold Coast Airport.

Hanks left before there were any cases in Bel Air. Your failed system caused this stop making excuses.  

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Just now, Cristoforo said:

If you go on the Australia Govt Health website you will see the daily update, and despite what the lying demented Melibitch says,  
there have been cases in every province for weeks and months brought in from many, many countries ( predominantly travelers coming from Iran, Italy,  and Wuhan, China.  And cases have been spreading locally through social interaction. Just like everywhere.   

Whooo.

A little over the top? :rolleyes:

care to provide a link to that?

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1 minute ago, Xlot said:

Likely. But then you actually have many more cases, that aren’t known because of your limited testing. Mind you, chances are that most of them were mild, so they were self-treated at home like a common flu. The corresponding cases in Italy are counted within the 12,000

The testing is going full bore which is why the numbers are growing,

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1 minute ago, The Joker said:

More bullshit.  The first US case was in Washington State.  Face it your fucking failed public health care system didn’t prevent our most beloved actor from getting this.   WTF is wrong with your healthcare system. 

On behalf of America and PA I want to apologize to the board for The Joke and Donald Trump. 
 

We’re really really sorry..

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9 minutes ago, The Joker said:

More bullshit.  The first US case was in Washington State.  Face it your fucking failed public health care system didn’t prevent our most beloved actor from getting this.   WTF is wrong with your healthcare system. 

You simply can’t know that.  We live in Washington State.  Everybody suspected, but no one knew.  Washington State was trying to test, and the CDC and Trump shut it down.  And you just made a telling slip- you just admitted you aren’t an American- “face it, your fucking failed health system.....” so tell us, where are you really from?  St Petersburg?

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4 minutes ago, The Joker said:

Hanks left before there were any cases in Bel Air. Your failed system caused this stop making excuses.  

Well he was in Italy late last year.

Oooh perhaps he's the mystery spreader of Italy!!

 

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4 minutes ago, The Joker said:

Hanks left before there were any cases in Bel Air. Your failed system caused this stop making excuses.  

You can’t know about the cases in Bel Aire.  There was no testing. No testing.   Unless you were involved in spreading the infection, you can’t know that.  

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1 minute ago, Amati said:

You simply can’t know that.  We live in Washington State.  Everybody suspected, but no one knew.  Washington State was trying to test, and the CDC and a trump shut it does.  And you just made a telling slip- you just admitted you aren’t an American- “face it, your fucking failed health system.....” so tell us, where are you really from?  St Petersburg?

You really don’t understand sarcasm. How is commenting on Australia’s healthcare system proof that I’m not American?   I’m really curious because the paranoid belief that Russia BOTS would spend time on PA always makes me laugh  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, The Joker said:

You really don’t understand sarcasm. How is commenting on Australia’s healthcare system proof that I’m not American?   I’m really curious because the paranoid belief that Russia BOTS would spend time on PA always makes me laugh  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That was pathetically lame.  Go away.

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21 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Rest assured we will take good care of him.

I’m sure you will. But hopefully, therapy will be quicker than for the three  McLaren and Haas mechanics at your own Melbourne Grand Prix, where samples were taken yesterday but results will be known - surprise, surprise - only next Monday after the race has taken place with full (paying) public participation

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LOL that's funny

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10 minutes ago, Amati said:

You simply can’t know that.  We live in Washington State.  Everybody suspected, but no one knew.  Washington State was trying to test, and the CDC and Trump shut it down.  And you just made a telling slip- you just admitted you aren’t an American- “face it, your fucking failed health system.....” so tell us, where are you really from?  St Petersburg?

No, fair is fair, he was bashing our commie healthcare :)

 

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6 minutes ago, Xlot said:

I’m sure you will. But hopefully, therapy will be quicker than for the three  McLaren and Haas mechanics at your own Melbourne Grand Prix, where samples were taken yesterday but results will be known - surprise, surprise - only next Monday after the race has taken place

link.

all I could find was this, but I didn't know the time zone diff streched to Monday?

FWIW, I think allowing this to go ahead is insane..but I'm not exactly representitive..I hate the fucking GP :D

 

“One team member has self-isolated in the hotel as a precaution, in line with our policy, after showing symptoms similar to Coronavirus,” the team stated.

 

“We are awaiting test results and currently do not have a definitive time frame for these. The team is operating as per our normal schedule.” The outcome of the test should be known within 24 hours.

Haas is also understood to have two team members in self-isolation for the same reason.

https://www.racefans.net/2020/03/11/mclaren-team-member-in-self-isolation-after-showing-symptoms-similar-to-coronavirus/

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10 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

No, fair is fair, he was bashing our commie healthcare :)

 

In his vague brutal way, he is dissing everyone he can.

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12 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

President just tweeted trade in no way will be impacted with Europe but he said in his address no Cargo would be accepted from Europe. So which is it asshole?  Or do you change your mind based on stock futures?

Perhaps he's got people in containers?

 
 
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Hoping to get the payroll tax cut approved by both Republicans and Democrats, and please remember, very important for all countries & businesses to know that trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe. The restriction stops people not goods.
 
 
5.5K
 
7.3K
 
27.5K
 
 
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9 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Nah, Jokes OK. 

He just can't take stirring very well. 

 

I disagree.  He is emblematic of the trouble we’re in. And basic english would show clearly that he was talking about Washington State as the last noun before his vile vituperation about healthcare.

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1 minute ago, Shortforbob said:

That is sadly true. I just meant he's rarely crude or abusive. Credit when due.

No.  He’s more sophisticated than that.  He implies.  He makes inferences.  But he is not precise.  His English is sloppy.

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6 minutes ago, Amati said:

No.  He’s more sophisticated than that.  He implies.  He makes inferences.  But he is not precise.  His English is sloppy.

seriously? have a look at you're president's "English" some time?

His problem is that his "english" is too perfect..Note he can't, or doesn't know how'r when to use a contraction. But that probably simply means that American english is not his first language. 

It doesn't mean he's Russian...Serbian?

And there's nothing wrong with being an emigrant 

:what?:

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

seriously? have a look at you're president's "English" some time?

His problem is that his "english" is too perfect..Note he can't, or doesn't know how'r when to use a contraction. But that probably simply means that American english is not his first language. 

It doesn't mean he's Russian...Serbian?

And there's nothing wrong with being an emigrant 

:what?:

 

 

 

 

 

 

^_^
 

I talked to Serbs on the phone during the Bosnian troubles (long weird story) -  so I don’t think Serbian is a great fit, although you made me laugh.  Not bad.  Not bad at all..

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Our president is an idiot.  Not only has he continued to drop us obscenely deeply into debt during an economic upswing, he fucked up the corona virus response too.  Now, with our economy faltering there are no more relief valves to open, because we're out of fucking money and time.

This idiot is going to preside over one of the biggest economic downturns in history (20 percent so far) and one of the biggest health crisis' since the Spanish flu.  And all he can do is read an uninspired speech from a teleprompter that was clearly written by someone who hadn't been told to use small words so Trump wouldn't get confused.  He proceeded to insult Europe, stop flights from Europe (but not the UK), and wasn't bothered to close the Canadian or Mexican borders.  Meaning anyone who wants can fly into Windsor, or Toronto, and walk across the fucking borde.

And somehow we still have idiots like Joker cheerleading for him

 

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2 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

Our president is an idiot.  Not only has he continued to drop us obscenely deeply into debt during an economic upswing, he fucked up the corona virus response too.  Now, with our economy faltering there are no more relief valves to open, because we're out of fucking money and time.

This idiot is going to preside over one of the biggest economic downturns in history (20 percent so far) and one of the biggest health crisis' since the Spanish flu.  And all he can do is read an uninspired speech from a teleprompter that was clearly written by someone who hadn't been told to use small words so Trump wouldn't get confused.  He proceeded to insult Europe, stop flights from Europe (but not the UK), and wasn't bothered to close the Canadian or Mexican borders.  Meaning anyone who wants can fly into Windsor, or Toronto, and walk across the fucking borde.

And somehow we still have idiots like Joker cheerleading for him

 

His deplorables will cheer anyway.

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LOL...  SXSW, NBA, Pearl Jam, Green Day, airlines, cruises, Europe, cities, countries, stock market.  Nothing to see here.  It's a hoax to discredit Trump. because none of those decision makers actually do anything but take care of their business.

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40 minutes ago, Amati said:

I disagree.  He is emblematic of the trouble we’re in. And basic english would show clearly that he was talking about Washington State as the last noun before his vile vituperation about healthcare.

You are an idiot.  I clearly was poking a bit at SB about the Australian healthcare system in reference  to Tom Hanks announcing he and his wife had corona virus. 
Typical that you didn’t bother to follow the flow of the discussion. 

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

What is the shape of the line from the Johns Hopkins data? Let's assume that the data from both charts are correct, even though the first one is unattributed. Which one looks to be the more useful dataset?

After we get this worked out, we'll look at the line shape of the infections and mortality. But we need to first get this squared away.

Ok, look, I'll pay a bit of attention to you in the future if you fess up to being way wrong about chart One . . . 

Don't give us that deflection BS

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4 minutes ago, The Joker said:

You are an idiot.  I clearly was poking a bit at SB about the Australian healthcare system in reference  to Tom Hanks announcing he and his wife had corona virus. 
Typical that you didn’t bother to follow the flow of the discussion. 

Nice try, but I’m not buying it.  You showed your hand.  I don’t take it as a joke, Joker.  

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14 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

LOL...  SXSW, NBA, Pearl Jam, Green Day, airlines, cruises, Europe, cities, countries, stock market.  Nothing to see here.  It's a hoax to discredit Trump. because none of those decision makers actually do anything but take care of their business.

Another case in Victoria after attending a music festival. (Person recently returned from o/s) The Pixies Pixies headlined. The Pixies have cancelled the rest of their Australian tour. :(

Methinks the GP is doomed.

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7 minutes ago, Amati said:

Nice try, but I’m not buying it.  You showed your hand.  I don’t take it as a joke, Joker.  

That just proves you are a stubborn fool.   I have no reason to wish harm on Washington state.   You missed the point of my posts after I posted that Tom  Hanks announced that he and his wife have  Corona IN AUSTRALIA.    You even took my using Bel Air, where I assume Hanks has a home as a serious claim that I couldn’t know if there were or were not cases.  Get over yourself  it was over the top sarcasm that went right over your head. Clearly directed at SB for her endless praise of her  system not Washington State. 

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8 minutes ago, The Joker said:

That just proves you are a stubborn fool.   I have no reason to wish harm on Washington state.   You missed the point of my posts after I posted that Tom  Hanks announced that he and his wife has Corona.  You even took my using Bel Air, where I assume Hanks has a home as a serious claim that I couldn’t know if there were or were not cases.  Get over yourself  it was over the top sarcasm that went right over your head. Directed at SB for her endless praise of her  system.

Joker, I haven’t laughed at what you claim are jokes.  I haven’t even chuckled at whatever irony you may think you are exploiting.  I don’t believe any pathos you post is intentional. Your wit escapes me.  You apparently assume an audience that understands your shorthand.  I don’t.  So I assume you don’t care if you change minds or hearts, you only seem to care about hurting people.  It’s the Web, I get that, but why pretend otherwise?  I can’t understand why you would care for a second that your sarcasm went over my head.  To the contrary, I think you trade on it.

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10 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

OFFS..I know. 

But as a matter of interest, why don't you use contractions? 

I don’t know they’re tricky when the iPhone  doesn’t always put in the apostrophe.  Wouldn’t it be spectacular if that wouldn’t happen regularly.  “You all” is some times used as a contraction, but only south of the Mason Dixie  line. 

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2 minutes ago, The Joker said:

I don’t know they’re tricky when the iPhone  doesn’t always put in the apostrophe.  Wouldn’t it be spectacular if that wouldn’t happen regularly.  “You all” is some times used as a contraction, but only south of the Mason Dixie  line. 

No no, you type "do not" and  "you are" rather than "dont" and "youre" nothing to do with your Iphone...that excuse won't wash.

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Just now, Amati said:

Joker, I haven’t laughed at what you claim are jokes.  I haven’t even chuckled at whatever irony you may think you are exploiting.  I don’t believe any pathos you post is intentional. Your wit escapes me.  You apparently assume an audience that understands your shorthand.  I don’t.  So I assume you don’t care if you change minds or hearts, you only seem to care about hurting people.  It’s the Web, I get that, but why pretend otherwise?  

Not pretending at all.  You are the only one that missed it.  Now you continue to double down.  Be a man admit it you overreacted to something I never implied or came close to claiming.   It was never about Washington State nor the poor victims there.   

 

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5 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

No no, you type "do not" and  "you are" rather than "dont" and "youre" nothing to do with your Iphone...that excuse won't wash.

Look at what you just wrote!  You just proved my point.  Contractions without apostrophes is a sign of poor writing. I don’t feel like going back and adding an apostrophe. Besides people would then claim I don’t understand contractions.  

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1 minute ago, The Joker said:

Not pretending at all.  You are the only one that missed it.  Now you continue to double down.  Be a man admit it you overreacted to something I never implied or came close to claiming.   It was never about Washington State nor the poor victims there.   

 

Too late. Have you ever run across the term fightin’ words?  I grew up in farm and ranch country.  It’s hard to outgrow. Sometimes the bullshit just gets too deep, and you’re the one doing the shoveling.  So I’m riled.  Live with it.

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7 minutes ago, The Joker said:

Look at what you just wrote!  You just proved my point.  Contractions without apostrophes is a sign of poor writing. I don’t feel like going back and adding an apostrophe. Besides people would then claim I don’t understand contractions.  

You just made her explicit point. WTF?  So your lazy.  That’s impressive.

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6 minutes ago, Amati said:

You just made her explicit point. WTF?

See any apostrophes in her contractions. Game, set match. 

6 minutes ago, Amati said:

Too late. Have you ever run across the term fightin’ words?  I grew up in farm and ranch country.  It’s hard to outgrow. Sometimes the bullshit just gets too deep, and you’re the one doing the shoveling.  So I’m riled.  Live with it.

But they weren’t fighting words nor were they directed at you or your state.  You must have taken a few to many hooves to the brain pan. 

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Just now, The Joker said:

 

But they weren’t fighting words nor were they directed at you or your state.  You must have taken a few to many hooves to the brain pan. 

You just can’t help yourself, can you?

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2 hours ago, The Joker said:

Not sure where you have been he took the first steps with in three weeks of the virus being identified by the Chinese.   He fucking acted quicker than the EU. Both Bernie and Biden took shots at him for his actions at the time.  Nice to see a leader that doesn’t give a shit about being PC. 

Uhuh, He promised a million test kits on March 2, and they still haven't been delivered.

<snip>

In the briefing, which was conducted by phone, the officials said that only 337 additional C.D.C. test kits were made available for distribution on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to two people on the call and the person briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Each of those tests would cover about 350 people, officials said.

The officials added that they hoped that a private manufacturer could step in and provide 2,500 more kits by the end of the week. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services said that public health labs currently can test 15,000 people, and could test up to 75,000 by the end of the week, numbers that fall well short of what Dr. Hahn indicated private labs could handle.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview with NBC on Monday that the virus had “reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions.”

Yet in several appearances on Monday at the White House, the president continued minimizing the risks of the outbreak. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/us/coronavirus-testing.html

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8 hours ago, Saorsa said:

What has the House proposed as a solution?

 

One less moron in charge.   The Senate Republicans said no,   

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1 hour ago, roundthebuoys said:

LOL...  SXSW, NBA, Pearl Jam, Green Day, airlines, cruises, Europe, cities, countries, stock market.  Nothing to see here.  It's a hoax to discredit Trump. because none of those decision makers actually do anything but take care of their business.

What planet are you visiting from? And are you all stupid assholes?

Or maybe I'm just missing the joke here.

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11 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

What planet are you visiting from? And are you all stupid assholes?

Or maybe I'm just missing the joke here.

I think you are definitely missing something.  There are hundreds of decision makers smarter than trump defending their businesses and communities.

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19 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Uhuh, He promised a million test kits on March 2, and they still haven't been delivered.

<snip>

In the briefing, which was conducted by phone, the officials said that only 337 additional C.D.C. test kits were made available for distribution on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to two people on the call and the person briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Each of those tests would cover about 350 people, officials said.

The officials added that they hoped that a private manufacturer could step in and provide 2,500 more kits by the end of the week. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services said that public health labs currently can test 15,000 people, and could test up to 75,000 by the end of the week, numbers that fall well short of what Dr. Hahn indicated private labs could handle.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview with NBC on Monday that the virus had “reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions.”

Yet in several appearances on Monday at the White House, the president continued minimizing the risks of the outbreak. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/us/coronavirus-testing.html

You only posted part of the numbers   
 

Fact-check.org

FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn provided the clearest answer about testing capacity on March 7, when he said that the CDC had shipped enough kits to state and local public health labs to test 75,000 people for COVID-19. 

In addition, more than 1.1 million tests manufactured by Integrated DNA Technologieshad been shipped as of March 6 for non-public health labs to use, with another 400,000 possibly shipping by March 9. A separate manufacturer had also produced 640,000 tests that could have shipped as early as March 9, once quality control testing was complete.

“The actual number of tests that have shipped is larger than the number of patients that can be tested,” Hahn explained, noting that the approximately 2.1 million tests from IDT and another company would allow roughly 850,000 Americans to be tested.

On top of those tests, he added, would be any testing by commercial or academic labs, plus an expected additional 4 million tests from IDT and the other company by the end of this week. The CDC itself also can test approximately 350 specimens per day.

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1 minute ago, roundthebuoys said:

I think you are definitely missing something.  There are hundreds of decision makers smarter than trump defending their businesses and communities.

For a while I thought you were serious about defending The Orange Fungus. My apologies. 

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3 minutes ago, The Joker said:

You only posted part of the numbers   
 

Fact-check.org

FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn provided the clearest answer about testing capacity on March 7, when he said that the CDC had shipped enough kits to state and local public health labs to test 75,000 people for COVID-19. 

In addition, more than 1.1 million tests manufactured by Integrated DNA Technologieshad been shipped as of March 6 for non-public health labs to use, with another 400,000 possibly shipping by March 9. A separate manufacturer had also produced 640,000 tests that could have shipped as early as March 9, once quality control testing was complete.

“The actual number of tests that have shipped is larger than the number of patients that can be tested,” Hahn explained, noting that the approximately 2.1 million tests from IDT and another company would allow roughly 850,000 Americans to be tested.

On top of those tests, he added, would be any testing by commercial or academic labs, plus an expected additional 4 million tests from IDT and the other company by the end of this week. The CDC itself also can test approximately 350 specimens per day.

That's a lot of promises. Too bad that the government had to reduce standards to get this much done. Will those additional 4 million tests from IDT be restricted to non-public labs? It would be nice if public labs could be involved as well, what's the real story?

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39 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

That's a lot of promises. Too bad that the government had to reduce standards to get this much done. Will those additional 4 million tests from IDT be restricted to non-public labs? It would be nice if public labs could be involved as well, what's the real story?

Living here in "ground zero" in Seattle, with Amazon and Microsoft shut down, with my office working with lots of primary health care clinicians, with the Gates Foundation pushing forward with money, and with University of Washington volunteering to do tests because the public health labs here, like elsewhere, are starved for resources....I only have one question....where are all these fucking test kits?  

Meanwhile, in Germany, the UK, Japan and elsewhere the are running drive-by testing stations with 24-hour turn-around on results.

We're No.1 !

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3 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

Ok, look, I'll pay a bit of attention to you in the future if you fess up to being way wrong about chart One . . . 

Don't give us that deflection BS

Wrong about what on Chart One?

It's a weird chart, possibly even disinformation, but what did I write about it that's wrong?

By the way, it's "inthefuture.com", thanks for the shout-out, a guy has to make a living.

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Regarding these delayed tests for the infection, do y'all understand the math behind more testing? The only possible thing that more testing can do is lower the morality rate, not raise it. When a death occurs, the test for the virus is likely universal in the USA.

Nearly all of the confirmed cases of infection were from people who felt sick enough to seek medical care, but up to 80% of those infected with previously studied coronaviruses were asymptotic.

Thus any random testing will usually lower mortality because it will be unlikely to expose sick people, and more likely to expose asymptomatic people. 

We're now up to 37 deaths. Given the apparent exponential increase in infections, why are we only seeing a linear increase in the deaths? Isn't one of the characteristics of an epidemic that the death rate has roughly the same line shape as the infection rate minus the incubation period? When the data doesn't fit the theory, it's either time to change the theory, or time to change the subject to politics, religion or sports.

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5 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

You're an idiot? so far we have almost no community spread, like 4 cases .

I guess he brought it with him.

 

5 hours ago, Cristoforo said:

wrong

27 cases, including 2 deaths, do not have a reported history of overseas travel

  • 8 of these cases are associated with an aged care facility in NSW. 2 residents of this facility have sadly died
  • 2 cases are either directly or indirectly associated with attendance at a workshop
  • 17 cases are close contacts of known cases, with further details pending

my bad

"At this point in time we don't have a single case of unknown community transmission in Victoria," 

Vic gov is starting to publish lists of all known exposure sites.

Sensible move..I feel much better.

 

Victoria's public exposure sites

Sunday, March 8

T20 Cricket World Cup Final, Melbourne Cricket Ground, MCC Members Level 2, between 5:15pm and 11:30pm

Myrtle Oval, Macleay Park, North Balwyn between 10:00am and 4:00pm

Ramsden Street Oval, Clifton Hill, between 8:30am and 5:00pm

Virgin Australia flight VA24 from Los Angeles to Melbourne which arrived at 7:00am

Saturday, March 7

Albert Park Hotel between 6:00pm and 10:00pm

South Melbourne Market between 2:00pm and 3:00pm

Coles Waurn Ponds between 1:00pm and 6:00pm

AAMI Park (Rebels vs Lions rugby game) in the evening

Ashburton Park, time unsure

Virgin Australia flight VA24 from Los Angeles to Melbourne, arrived 7:00am

Friday, March 6

Malaysia Airways flight MH0149 from Kuala Lumpur to Melbourne arrived 9:00am

Pho Hung Vuong 2 Vietnamese Restaurant in Richmond between 6:00pm and 7:00pm

Qantas flight QF94 from Los Angeles to Melbourne arrived 9:40am

Coles Waurn Ponds between 8:45am and 10:00am

South Melbourne Market between 8:30am and 10:00am

Emirates flight EK404 from Singapore to Melbourne arrived at 12:15am

Thursday, March 5

Cinema Nova, Carlton, Movie: The Amber Light between 7:30pm and 10:30pm

V/Line train from Southern Cross Station to Geelong departing about 5:40pm

Tuesday, March 3

Wine by Sam in Seymour between 12:30pm and 3:30pm

La Trobe University, Bundoora Campus:

March 3 between 9:00am and 12:00pm

March 4 between 11:00am and 1:00pm

March 5 between 1:00pm and 4:30pm

Monday, March 2

Virgin Australia flight VA682 from Perth to Melbourne which arrived at 4:20pm

VLine train from Geelong to Southern Cross departing about 5:40pm

Metro train from Southern Cross to Camberwell departing between 7:00pm and 7:15pm

Toorak Clinic, 575 Malvern Rd, Toorak for patients and staff that attended the clinic any time between March 2 and March 6

United Airlines flight UA0060 from San Francisco to Melbourne arrived 9:30am

Singapore Airlines flight SQ237 from Singapore to Melbourne arrived 10:50am

Malindo Air flight OD177 from Denpasar to Melbourne arrived 10:50am (Singapore time)

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6 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

He’s a callous liar that posts divisive shit as a returd  in defense of the indefensible, then refuses to accept responsibility. Fuck The Joke.

yes, but he's rarely crude or abusive.

Welcome to another perspective.

Remember when we all hated George W Bush.He was never crude or abusive. Miss him?

Sadly in these days. These small things matter.

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On 3/11/2020 at 4:28 PM, mikewof said:

For the purpose of the morality mortality rate, asymptotic would mean anyone who doesn't feel sufficiently miserable to seek medical help. Because those people aren't typically diagnosed with the virus.

How many is that? Without a study, we can only guess. But the virus seems to be virulent from the Chinese results, so based on the confirmed cases, like SARS, I'm going to guess that it's around 90% sufficiently asymptomatic that it isn't diagnosed.

I actually agree with your point that unless we know accurately how many are infected, then the serious disease rates and death rates are likely an overstatement.

However, that is a double edged sword. if the asymptotic and undiagnosed rate is double what it currently assumed, then we have the good - the death rate is half what is currently being described, plus the bad - the transmission rate is double the current assumption. If there is, as you guess above, a 90% undiagnosed rate, then the virus is massively more contageous than currently thought.

I'd suggest Australia might be a worthwhile study - if you focus on the 60 and up age groups. By and large this segment of the population have nothing better to do than annoy their GP, and with our socialised medicine, there is little disincentive for them to do so. So I suspect that there will be a pretty accurate diagnostic rate in the old farts, and we can get both numerator and denominator.

Oh - and I'm saddened that you lot seem to have come to the conclusion that heart failure is the universal cause of death. I though most anyone with a modicum of medical knowledge understood that it's cerebral hypoxia / anoxia.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Regarding these delayed tests for the infection, do y'all understand the math behind more testing? The only possible thing that more testing can do is lower the morality rate, not raise it. When a death occurs, the test for the virus is likely universal in the USA.

Nearly all of the confirmed cases of infection were from people who felt sick enough to seek medical care, but up to 80% of those infected with previously studied coronaviruses were asymptotic.

Thus any random testing will usually lower mortality because it will be unlikely to expose sick people, and more likely to expose asymptomatic people. 

We're now up to 37 deaths. Given the apparent exponential increase in infections, why are we only seeing a linear increase in the deaths? Isn't one of the characteristics of an epidemic that the death rate has roughly the same line shape as the infection rate minus the incubation period? When the data doesn't fit the theory, it's either time to change the theory, or time to change the subject to politics, religion or sports.

I'm guessing when it's all said and done, the current linearity is because we're squashing the normal exponential growth and extending out the tail.  We have multiple mechanisms at play now - one spreading, and several counterspreading.  To go back to the 3Brown1Blue thread I posted earlier, it's no longer 1 population with an exponential growth.  We have dozens of smaller populations, each with their own growth, that are now being selectively prevented from interacting freely.  One method of evaluating how effective any remedy is will be to 'compare to wuhan'.   That was the closest thing to a 'normal response' for the longest period.  Northern Italy would probably be next where it was allowed to spread a bit further before steps, followed by S. Korea.  A dozen PhD students are going to get degrees comparing response strategies.

The fallout will be interesting. Obviously, the 'strong border' folks are going to have a field day as will the 'track everyone' crowd.  Social advocates will talk about universal health care and need for more preventative care.  The supply chain into China is going to get shortened while the push for mass transportation is going to have another hurdle to overcome.  We were due for another culture shock and this is it.

 

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7 hours ago, The Joker said:

Not pretending at all.  You are the only one that missed it.  Now you continue to double down.  Be a man admit it you overreacted to something I never implied or came close to claiming.   It was never about Washington State nor the poor victims there.   

 

No - he didn't miss it.  Your humor isn't humor.  I have a emotionally challenged relative who exhibits some of the same symptoms you do.  His 'jokes' usually involve either serially bothering people, or doing something hurtful.  Doctors attribute it to a total lack of social awareness as a result of Aspbergers / Autism.  You seem to suffer from the same symptoms:  your jokes are insults, your words constantly argumentative and hateful, and you live in your own little isolated world where reality rarely intrudes.

You piss people off.  But the worst part for you is that appears no one has ever explained it to you and it's too late for you to figure it out.  So you're going to go through life wondering why people treat you like shit, at least in your own estimation.

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People love , worship , and know our POTUS will get us thru this crisis , to prove my point look at todays futures after his brillant, beautiful, knowlegable speech last night.............................................................................NOT , dow futures down 1500 pts or 5%

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6 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Living here in "ground zero" in Seattle, with Amazon and Microsoft shut down, with my office working with lots of primary health care clinicians, with the Gates Foundation pushing forward with money, and with University of Washington volunteering to do tests because the public health labs here, like elsewhere, are starved for resources....I only have one question....where are all these fucking test kits?  

Meanwhile, in Germany, the UK, Japan and elsewhere the are running drive-by testing stations with 24-hour turn-around on results.

We're No.1 !

Funny how some of our members ignore simple facts. Today, in New York City, unless you have pneumonia or have visited a foreign country within two weeks, you cannot get a test to see if you have Covid19. 
I am grateful that some are no longer calling this a hoax, or that this is just another flu. We are still screwed, expect more authoritarianism it’s the only thing left in the magical book of control.

 

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The assholes are arriving early out here -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/new-yorkers-flee-to-hamptons-hudson-valley-to-escape-virus

 

Wealthy New Yorkers Flee to Hamptons, Hudson Valley to Escape Coronavirus

Excerpt -

“We’re headed to the Hamptons with my whiskey and Lysol wipes,” said Julie Macklowe, who lives on the Upper East Side.

Macklowe said she’s canceled all her engagements, including a board meeting for the Fashion Institute of Technology’s Couture Council. “No play dates. The kids can FaceTime each other, we’ll find out if that works.”

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5 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Funny how some of our members ignore simple facts. Today, in New York City, unless you have pneumonia or have visited a foreign country within two weeks, you cannot get a test to see if you have Covid19. 
I am grateful that some are no longer calling this a hoax, or that this is just another flu. We are still screwed, expect more authoritarianism it’s the only thing left in the magical book of control.

 

President Trump called it a hoax.  Last night, he responded to the hoax.  Guess he fell for it, eh?

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3 hours ago, Se7en said:

...    ...

Oh - and I'm saddened that you lot seem to have come to the conclusion that heart failure is the universal cause of death. I though most anyone with a modicum of medical knowledge understood that it's cerebral hypoxia / anoxia.

 

It's a lot easier to measure heart failure.

- DSK

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