Ex-yachtie

Corona Virus

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22 hours ago, Xlot said:

What strikes me, as an outsider, is that after three years you still cannot bring yourself to name “the other choice”, as if she was the essence of turpitude instead of a politician with impeccable, if conventional, credentials

At this point, it’s no longer rational antipahy but a deep-seated hatred - evidently shared by a substantial portion of the US population. Curious why - Obama I can understand, he’s a n****r, but Hillary’s just a woman, she as president would have been that dangerous to your manhood?

 

I have zero problem with her gender.   I had zero problems with the color of our previous president.  

And give me a break.  Do you know anything at all about Hillary (or Bill for that matter)?  If so you would never use the word "impeccable' (merriam-webster.com definition is - free from fault or blame : flawless).  

Her actions as a corrupt, dishonest and power hungry politician are what caused the huge negative sentiment for her in the US. 

If the Democrats had fielded a good, moderate candidate things would have likely turned out different.   

 

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Whatever her failings, I do not believe President Rodham Clinton would be boasting about taking chloroquine now. 

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5 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Whatever her failings, I do not believe President Rodham Clinton would be boasting about taking chloroquine now. 

Or doing most of the other things that the current corrupt, dishonest and power hungry pres does.

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On 5/17/2020 at 9:24 PM, WetHog said:

Meh, it’s just the counties bordering DC that are having issues.  The rest of us in Maryland are doing ok considering. 
 

Also, you folks need to get a grip in regards to Trump.  The guy is a fucking idiot but he is all talk, a troll.  And you folk fall for it. 
 

WetHog  :ph34r:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/ocean-city-amid-a-pandemic-no-senior-week-but-plenty-of-reckless-behavior/2020/05/18/b8bd3508-9908-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html

Y'all not gonna be doin' so good in 2 weeks, hon.

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27 minutes ago, P Flados said:

I have zero problem with her gender.   I had zero problems with the color of our previous president.  

And give me a break.  Do you know anything at all about Hillary (or Bill for that matter)?  If so you would never use the word "impeccable' (merriam-webster.com definition is - free from fault or blame : flawless).  

Her actions as a corrupt, dishonest and power hungry politician are what caused the huge negative sentiment for her in the US. 

If the Democrats had fielded a good, moderate candidate things would have likely turned out different.   

 

In short: Lock Her Up, Lock Her Up !!

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19 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

It really looks as if the Orange Dotard wants to kill the populace of the country he's president of. Apart from his devastating political decisions, what else could he have in mind with this "injecting disinfectant" and "taking hydroxychloroquine"?

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1 hour ago, Rennmaus said:

Apart from his devastating political decisions, what else could he have in mind with this "injecting disinfectant" and "taking hydroxychloroquine"?

If, and it’s a big IF, his doctor has any brains then what Trump is taking doses of is actually a placebo to try keep him happy. 

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1 hour ago, Rennmaus said:

It really looks as if the Orange Dotard wants to kill the populace of the country he's president of. 

Is anyone who believes him going to really be a loss to the country should they expire prematurely?

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3 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Is anyone who believes him going to really be a loss to the country should they expire prematurely?

Get the sentiment but geez, that’s a lot of people. ‘Red-necks’ or not they make up a big portion of ‘Merica!’

If there’s any silver lining to this horrendous virus, it’s that the real victims so far are overwhelmingly those who already had the shortest future life expectancy. Let’s all pray the next epidemic won’t be even more devastating since it’s now clear how we are so unprepared. 

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1 hour ago, Stingray~ said:

 

If there’s any silver lining to this horrendous virus, it’s that the real victims so far are overwhelmingly those who already had the shortest future life expectancy. Let’s all pray the next epidemic won’t be even more devastating since it’s now clear how we are so unprepared. 

The most charitable read I can make of this is that you are saying all the nursing home residents, elderly, people with comorbidities that are dying "had full lives" but not all that much life left to get cut off,  so it's better than young people with decades of life expectancy dying. WTF?!?

Those deaths as reported are not easy ones, or comforting for their caregivers and loved ones. 

And IT IS NOT YET KNOWN what the lifelong effects of COVID19 are going to be on children, young people who get it, millennials and middle aged people who come off a respirator...lung scarring? Fibrosis? Impaired cardiorespiratory capacity later on?  Disability in middle age? Careers cut short? Living with the permanent effects of strokes? And who knows what new data will be revealed.

NOBODY KNOWS WHO ISN'T A "REAL VICTIM" YET.  

There is no happy spin on any of this. 

This did not have to play out as it is. 

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1 hour ago, NeedAClew said:

The most charitable read I can make of this is that you are saying all the nursing home residents, elderly, people with comorbidities that are dying "had full lives" but not all that much life left to get cut off,  so it's better than young people with decades of life expectancy dying. WTF?!?

Those deaths as reported are not easy ones, or comforting for their caregivers and loved ones. 

And IT IS NOT YET KNOWN what the lifelong effects of COVID19 are going to be on children, young people who get it, millennials and middle aged people who come off a respirator...lung scarring? Fibrosis? Impaired cardiorespiratory capacity later on?  Disability in middle age? Careers cut short? Living with the permanent effects of strokes? And who knows what new data will be revealed.

NOBODY KNOWS WHO ISN'T A "REAL VICTIM" YET.  

There is no happy spin on any of this. 

This did not have to play out as it is. 

I have had a fairly long and reasonably full life, but I would just as soon it not end just yet, while I still enjoy it.

Is my happiness and survival less important than that of some 25-year-old who runs around with no mask on hanging out with all his buddies on the beach and at a bar, because he feels invincible?

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1 hour ago, NeedAClew said:

The most charitable read I can make of this is that you are saying all the nursing home residents, elderly, people with comorbidities that are dying "had full lives" but not all that much life left to get cut off,  so it's better than young people with decades of life expectancy dying. WTF?!?

Those deaths as reported are not easy ones, or comforting for their caregivers and loved ones. 

And IT IS NOT YET KNOWN what the lifelong effects of COVID19 are going to be on children, young people who get it, millennials and middle aged people who come off a respirator...lung scarring? Fibrosis? Impaired cardiorespiratory capacity later on?  Disability in middle age? Careers cut short? Living with the permanent effects of strokes? And who knows what new data will be revealed.

NOBODY KNOWS WHO ISN'T A "REAL VICTIM" YET.  

There is no happy spin on any of this. 

This did not have to play out as it is. 

Well said!

 

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1 hour ago, NeedAClew said:

There is no happy spin on any of this. 

I don’t see one either, but be real: It could get even worse.

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12 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

I don’t see one either, but be real: It could get even worse.

Reminds me of the old catering joke:

First the bad news: whatever this stuff is for dinner, it tastes like shit

The good news is there's plenty of it.

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37 minutes ago, accnick said:

I have had a fairly long and reasonably full life, but I would just as soon it not end just yet, while I still enjoy it.

Is my happiness and survival less important than that of some 25-year-old who runs around with no mask on hanging out with all his buddies on the beach and at a bar, because he feels invincible?

Or some fat little Muppet, fairly well read, goes to a BBQ where no one gives a fuck then makes a guilty post on a sailing forum, little guilty. Then continues to spout selfish Shit. 

You are at least as important good sir.

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6 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

Get the sentiment but geez, that’s a lot of people. ‘Red-necks’ or not they make up a big portion of ‘Merica!’

It's not a lot of brainpower though.

Darwin would be kicking back with the beer & popcorn from his couch in the sky I'd think, seeing his theory playing out live on Fox News...

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On 5/18/2020 at 10:21 AM, Woolfy said:

Can't say Jacinda is that well qualified when it comes to dealing with a pandemic... difference is she recognised that and listened to those that are. Then followed up on their guidance and clearly stated to the electorate what was required to stop the spread.

I think she mentioned her sister is an expert though maybe she has been helping her understand.

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1 hour ago, NZL4EVER said:

I think she mentioned her sister is an expert though maybe she has been helping her understand.

I think as a woman, mother, and not a wanna be billionaire she has empathy, compassion, and doesn't have a belly full of greed. Letting everyone who is in sight of their end date die was not on the menu for her. She has shown her values in previous crisis, and when her science advice aligned with her values it was an easy decision.

Unlike the values of the leaders fucking this up. And their followers...SR.

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8 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

Get the sentiment but geez, that’s a lot of people. ‘Red-necks’ or not they make up a big portion of ‘Merica!’

If there’s any silver lining to this horrendous virus, it’s that the real victims so far are overwhelmingly those who already had the shortest future life expectancy. Let’s all pray the next epidemic won’t be even more devastating since it’s now clear how we are so unprepared. 

In average 9 years lost to Corona - that's what a study in GER found out. 9 years! That's plenty.

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9 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

In average 9 years lost to Corona - that's what a study in GER found out. 9 years! That's plenty.

Yikes... 

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I’ve been of the depressing opinion since months ago that it’s inevitable that everyone will get infected eventually. That all this effort at sheltering and such has been simply to flatten the curve for healthcare capacity reasons. Which brings me to this Q, given there’s no vaccine so far:

If NZ (and Iceland and wherever else) do successfully eradicate the virus and end up with the only uninfected populations left on earth, and therefore end up with populations without any antivirus immunity, are they not remaining vulnerable to an eventual spike? 
 

(No, I am NOT advocating that anyone go get it intentionally.)

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1 hour ago, Stingray~ said:

 

If NZ (and Iceland and wherever else) do successfully eradicate the virus and end up with the only uninfected populations left on earth, and therefore end up with populations without any antivirus immunity, are they not remaining vulnerable to an eventual spike? 
 

Not if a vaccine is developed

In the interim we ain't letting you in without quarantine.

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35 minutes ago, Woolfy said:

Not if a vaccine is developed

In the interim we ain't letting you in without quarantine.

Right, which is sorta the point I was making. You’d for damn sure wanna protect the privileged position you managed to put yourself in.

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On 5/18/2020 at 6:40 AM, WetHog said:

You got it mostly right. It is a failure of the bloated bureaucracy, mostly at the state level. Sure you can say Trump doesn’t help because he is a piss poor communicator and he sucks as a human being but Obama would be in the exact same situation.  
 

WetHog  :ph34r:

Wow, this is the most idiotic statement every made. Trump isn't a piss poor communicator, he just changes his mind constantly and makes up policies, commitments, "facts" on the fly without any knowledge of the facts or input from the experts.  Obama had a pandemic expert in place that did annual drills and planning for these types of scenarios, trump let all of those people go.  How many experts or scientists has Trump fired?  He has had a record turnover in his cabinet.  If you can't see his incompetence than you have a blindfold over your eyes.  I get it that some wanted a change from the typical politician, but this is a prime example of what happens if you hand the reigns over to a person that has no knowledge of what the government does or how it does it.  The states do not have enough resources to tackle a problem like this, only a coordinated federal response that can shift resources and can print money can do it.   All of the progress we have made has been on the back of the states.  The only thing the feds have done is fund the development of vaccines and even there Trump removed the guy in charge because he wouldn't "drop everything" to test hydroxychloroquine, a drug that very few thought had promise and was proven to not be effective.

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13 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

In average 9 years lost to Corona - that's what a study in GER found out. 9 years! That's plenty.

 

3 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

Yikes... 

Wow. But on a positive side (the absolute tragedy of death, aside) innovation will accelerate. Shame some of us won't be around to see it...or not.

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11 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

But on a positive side (the absolute tragedy of death, aside) innovation will accelerate. Shame some of us won't be around to see it...or not.

Let’s all pray for that but we just don’t know what that timeline looks like.

Were I Jacinda, I’d lock down the borders very tightly in the mean time. Maybe even tell the teams to race AC36 offshore instead.

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At SButt

While I’m aware it is hyperbole, I can think of no simpler illustrative example of this than Russian roulette.

Every time you exit your house and come into contact with another person during a pandemic, you’re spinning the cylinder, pointing the gun at your head, and pulling the trigger. That’s bad enough, but you are also forcing every person you come into contact with to spin the cylinder, put the gun at their own heads, and pull the trigger as well.

https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2020/05/18/racing-is-optional-amid-pandemic/

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I am using my privileged position to avoid coming into contact with people and staying alive out of spite till there is a vaccine for my demographic. 

Then I am going to Raja Ampat.

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On 5/20/2020 at 10:35 AM, Stingray~ said:

If there's any silver lining to this horrendous virus, it’s that the real victims so far are overwhelmingly those who already had the shortest future life expectancy. Let’s all pray the next epidemic won’t be even more devastating since it’s now clear how we are so unprepared

The least charitable read I can make of this is that you are a very sick person and that it is high time you arrange your euthanasia. 

Also, your economic value for the society is approaching zero, and your moral value is negative.

And please stop telling others to pray.

Pray for yourself if you believe in delusions.

 

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5 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

I am using my privileged position to avoid coming into contact with people and staying alive out of spite till there is a vaccine for my demographic. 

Then I am going to Raja Ampat.

Great diving, hope you get there soon

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12 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

Right, which is sorta the point I was making. You’d for damn sure wanna protect the privileged position you managed to put yourself in.

No it's not the point you are trolling. FFS, can't you give it up? Privilege? You are a super duper Muppet.

Call back when the advantages of herd immunity have scientific consensus.

Until then, go back to your BBQ, and cut and paste posts mofo.

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11 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

Let’s all pray

image.png.4dd06219bd10ee8f9e1f708aa46e86f4.png

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On 5/20/2020 at 4:44 AM, barfy said:

Or some fat little Muppet, fairly well read, goes to a BBQ where no one gives a fuck then makes a guilty post on a sailing forum, little guilty. Then continues to spout selfish Shit. 

Truth be told, I can attest SR’s not fat :D 

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6 hours ago, astro said:

image.png.4dd06219bd10ee8f9e1f708aa46e86f4.png

:)

To be clear, I was using the word ‘pray’ as in ‘hope.’ 

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42 minutes ago, Xlot said:

Truth be told, I can attest SR’s not fat :D 

Thanks. And for any hand wringers here, I am still isolating and still very healthy. Groceries along with everything else is by delivery. A neighbor who does venture out once a week leaves any beer or wine I request on my front door step, since nobody here delivers that part.

Nobody I know knows anyone who has (knowingly) had the virus. So far so good hereabouts.

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19 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

Thanks. And for any hand wringers here, I am still isolating and still very healthy. Groceries along with everything else is by delivery. A neighbor who does venture out once a week leaves any beer or wine I request on my front door step, since nobody here delivers that part.

Nobody I know knows anyone who has (knowingly) had the virus. So far so good hereabouts.

Now you do. Not me fortunately, but a colleague. He came out well, at least.

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24 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

Thanks. And for any hand wringers here, I am still isolating and still very healthy. Groceries along with everything else is by delivery. A neighbor who does venture out once a week leaves any beer or wine I request on my front door step, since nobody here delivers that part.

Nobody I know knows anyone who has (knowingly) had the virus. So far so good hereabouts.

6 people I know have had it......we think?? the testing wasn't carried out as the weren't hospitalized. 

2 are dead.

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3 minutes ago, mad said:

6 people I know have had it......we think?? the testing wasn't carried out as the weren't hospitalized. 

2 are dead.

Damn! Condolences...

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From

https://www.sail-world.com/news/229013/Americas-Cup-Challengers-vent-over-Kiwi-ban

Earlier in the day, Grant Robertson, Minister of Finance and Minister of Sport, revealed that despite the official policy of closed borders the NZ Government did have the ability, and had made exceptions. "There was an urgent need to fix a gas pipeline, and they needed specialists. We can grant exemptions for that kind of thing," Robertson said. "Now we have to say as we move down the alert levels - "what do we do for the likes of the America's Cup?".

"That work is underway and we have been talking to Team New Zealand and we hope to have some announcements to make about that soon."

When questioned by Magic Talk's Peter Williams, a highly experienced sports commentator, as to the meaning of "soon"? "Within the next month?", Williams asked.

"Obviously they [the teams] want to be in here in the next couple of months. We need to be able to at least give them a response before that time.

"As I said we are working through that, and not just for the America's Cup. I know it is an important event for New Zealand but we also have to have consistent criteria."

 

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12 minutes ago, mad said:

6 people I know have had it......we think?? the testing wasn't carried out as the weren't hospitalized. 

2 are dead.

:( Shattering. I'm so sorry.

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Tourism got shut down because ppl are afraid of catching some sort of weird cold.

They better shut down going in the water for fear of drowning.  Drowning numbers are high....

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14 minutes ago, david r said:

Tourism got shut down because ppl are afraid of catching some sort of weird cold.

They better shut down going in the water for fear of drowning.  Drowning numbers are high....

And drowning is soooo contagious.

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40 minutes ago, david r said:

Tourism got shut down because ppl are afraid of catching some sort of weird cold.

They better shut down going in the water for fear of drowning.  Drowning numbers are high....

One byproduct of all of this has been an abundance of really stupid analogies. This is close to the worst and the competition is stiff. Congratulations! 

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3 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

From

https://www.sail-world.com/news/229013/Americas-Cup-Challengers-vent-over-Kiwi-ban

Earlier in the day, Grant Robertson, Minister of Finance and Minister of Sport, revealed that despite the official policy of closed borders the NZ Government did have the ability, and had made exceptions. "There was an urgent need to fix a gas pipeline, and they needed specialists. We can grant exemptions for that kind of thing," Robertson said. "Now we have to say as we move down the alert levels - "what do we do for the likes of the America's Cup?".

"That work is underway and we have been talking to Team New Zealand and we hope to have some announcements to make about that soon."

When questioned by Magic Talk's Peter Williams, a highly experienced sports commentator, as to the meaning of "soon"? "Within the next month?", Williams asked.

"Obviously they [the teams] want to be in here in the next couple of months. We need to be able to at least give them a response before that time.

"As I said we are working through that, and not just for the America's Cup. I know it is an important event for New Zealand but we also have to have consistent criteria."

 

So there you have it :-)

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2 hours ago, david r said:

Tourism got shut down because ppl are afraid of catching some sort of weird cold.

They better shut down going in the water for fear of drowning.  Drowning numbers are high....

Maui?  When Maui "restarts the economy" and ends quarantine, you will all stay broke because the well off are not going to jump on a long plane flight or two or three to get there (given what we are learning about toilet flushing aerosols) and/or get a little money from the condo budgeteers grabbing cheap tickets but have a LOT more cases than you could imaging as people get sick on the way, spend a week or more, spread it around your bars and supermarkets (stay outta ABC stores)  before they get symptoms and after, and then fly home infecting their neighborhoods. 

 

PS wasn't drowning the FORMER leading cause of tourist deaths?  Not anymore...

Edited by NeedAClew
PS
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5 hours ago, david r said:

Tourism got shut down because ppl are afraid of catching some sort of weird cold.

They better shut down going in the water for fear of drowning.  Drowning numbers are high....

Cock

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An engaging BBC doc inside Critical Care in Newport Hospital over a month covering the peak of the pandemic.  They reckon they are much better prepared for the July and October secondary waves.

They gave the medical staff cameras and did a great job editing. 

56mins no ads.

https://youtu.be/0FP2sETZg9Q

 

London's new cases have significantly declined in the last few days. Zero the other day.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

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8 hours ago, chesirecat said:

An engaging BBC doc inside Critical Care in Newport Hospital over a month covering the peak of the pandemic.  They reckon they are much better prepared for the July and October secondary waves.

They gave the medical staff cameras and did a great job editing. 

56mins no ads.

https://youtu.be/0FP2sETZg9Q

 

London's new cases have significantly declined in the last few days. Zero the other day.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

I feel so sorry for those folk. That's one of the many tragedies of this "common cold". Why the fuck can't the disbeliefMuppet crowd not empathise a bit with the tireless professionals trying to put out the fire.

 

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Every time you think you have an understanding of at least one aspect of the virus, it immediately will screw up your assumptions:

Mysterious inflammatory syndrome tied to COVID-19 is showing up in adults in their early 20s

20shttps://www.livescience.com/covid-19-inflammatory-syndrome-mis-c-young-adults.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=9163&utm_content=LSH_Newsletter+&utm_term=3244041&m_i=Apzl1TFzCAST852wnSEJTMI5M5SYx_TH6b4r1gVcf2Y8zej%2BIBl_ojmMXRlIrYEWFuQszPX0Fr8AnzuF9sWzt3TImSvPIvNPT%2Br7U6NAA8

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10 hours ago, chesirecat said:

An engaging BBC doc inside Critical Care in Newport Hospital over a month covering the peak of the pandemic.  They reckon they are much better prepared for the July and October secondary waves.

They gave the medical staff cameras and did a great job editing. 

56mins no ads.

https://youtu.be/0FP2sETZg9Q

 

London's new cases have significantly declined in the last few days. Zero the other day.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

I clicked through the doco.  I teared up a couple of times.

Plenty of times I have had the opinion that it is their job, what they are paid to do, but this is different.  Each of them has to decide each day it they want to get out of bed to risk their lives to help others.

All you selfish denial cunts?  Just do everyone a favour and go fucking kill yourselves now so you don't end up taking valuable time from people like these legendary health workers.

 

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News from Europe:

-  in Spain, beaches are open and foreign tourists will be welcome from July 1st

- Austrian frontiers remain closed, but a corridor is being set up for German tourists with suicidal tendencies who’ll be going to Italy, provided they don’t stop (on the way back?)

Again, no quarantine. Not clear if/which test will be required

 

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Sometimes it is real easy to get judgmental when when we see people making choices that we would not make. 

However, sometimes they make the choice that they do after they gave careful consideration to the issue, and based on all available information they feel it is the lesser of two evils.   

In my conversations with folks, many feel that "taking a chance" is better than the miserable purgatory of "stay at home" life.

They know that there is a chance of getting it, but this risk is not "terrible".  In reality, an estimate 30% that get it are asymptomatic, a good percentage have mild symptoms, a small percentage have bad symptoms but survive, a very small percentage do not survive.  This is really not that much worse than a bad flu.  

They also reason that that there is an upside to the risk.  If they do get it and survive, there is a good chance that they will not have to worry about it anymore (immunity may not be certain but immunity still seems possible and/or likely).

The terrible situation we see in hospitals with many severely sick and dying covid 19 patients is real.  However, without more aggressive actions very early on (primarily at the source), complete containment and elimination were just never going to work for most countries. 

At this point, "taking a chance" is a better than it was early on.  It appears that the medical supply shortage (masks, etc.) issues have been addressed, testing is pretty much readily available, and provisions are in place for tracing.  There will be much less in the way of large gatherings and where gatherings occur, there will likely be a lot more "spread control" than there was in February.  Also most governments say they are prepared to step in and re-establish restrictions to deal with any hot spots.

For many folks that are either "at risk" physically or strongly "anti risk" emotionally, the re-opening efforts seem foolish. 

For a much larger group, they are very ready to "take a chance".  

For a physically low risk person, "taking a chance" is their choice and I am not going to judge them for making it.  Again think "it is not much worse than a bad flu" and we all take some risk every day we drive down the highway, go out in public, or participate in many hobbies (say take a sail in with scattered storms in the forecast).

On the other hand, I do wish we had more confidence in our ability to provide reasonable protection to those who are physically at a greater risk.  This includes my wife.  We are not youngsters and she is a organ transplant survivor who is on immune system suppressing anti rejection meds.  

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3 hours ago, Xlot said:

News from Europe:

-  in Spain, beaches are open and foreign tourists will be welcome from July 1st

- Austrian frontiers remain closed, but a corridor is being set up for German tourists with suicidal tendencies who’ll be going to Italy, provided they don’t stop (on the way back?)

Again, no quarantine. Not clear if/which test will be required

 

Spain citation please.

All countries have permitted foreign nationals to depart, Germans left AU and NZ weeks ago.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/120956815/coronavirus-lufthansa-plane-bids-farewell-flying-low-over-auckland

I don't think this is quite the border opening people are looking for.

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On 5/21/2020 at 3:37 PM, Rennmaus said:

:( Shattering. I'm so sorry.

Just considering purchasing an antibody test kit, I’m becoming increasingly sure I had this in early January.  
 

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On 5/21/2020 at 5:48 PM, david r said:

Tourism got shut down because ppl are afraid of catching some sort of weird cold.

They better shut down going in the water for fear of drowning.  Drowning numbers are high....

Come back when you’re close to people that have had it or working in the health industry. 

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1 minute ago, mad said:

Just considering purchasing an antibody test kit, I’m becoming increasingly sure I had this in early January.  
 

A double-edged sword. While it might be interesting for you to know, would a positive result change your behavior? If so, and you stop to wear a mask and keep your distance, it would be bad. You can't count on immunity to be safe.
But if you had it, man, good that you're still here.

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On 5/22/2020 at 1:32 AM, chesirecat said:

London's new cases have significantly declined in the last few days. Zero the other day.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

Don’t believe all the UK figures, they’re being ‘adjusted’ and aren’t up to date. 

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7 minutes ago, Rennmaus said:

A double-edged sword. While it might be interesting for you to know, would a positive result change your behavior? If so, and you stop to wear a mask and keep your distance, it would be bad. You can't count on immunity to be safe.
But if you had it, man, good that you're still here.

It wouldn’t change my behaviour, still don’t know if there’s any immunity or a chance I could be or become an asymptomatic carrier...... also there’s nothing to go and do anyway really apart from day to day life and try and run a business. 
 

It would make sense, I was physically flattened for 10-12 days initially and about 3-4 weeks after with no energy, chronic chills etc along with all the symptoms described by others and PB. 

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I didn't want to press "like" due to your second paragraph, so...

Like:

6 minutes ago, mad said:

It wouldn’t change my behaviour, still don’t know if there’s any immunity or a chance I could be or become an asymptomatic carrier...... also there’s nothing to go and do anyway really apart from day to day life and try and run a business. 

Dislike:

6 minutes ago, mad said:

It would make sense, I was physically flattened for 10-12 days initially and about 3-4 weeks after with no energy, chronic chills etc along with all the symptoms described by others and PB. 

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5 hours ago, P Flados said:

Again think "it is not much worse than a bad flu"

i would prefer my thinking gets wasted on more accurate ideas

like

'this is crap loads worse than .. " just a bad flu "

it's side effects are still not completely known .. but seem to be also .. crap loads worse,  than .. " just a bad flu "

 

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6 hours ago, P Flados said:

percentage have mild symptoms, a small percentage have bad symptoms but survive, a very small percentage do not survive.  This is really not that much worse than a bad flu.  

I'm pretty sure I caught an early case late November in Shanghai. The early fever..I thought I could just stop eating and die it was so mentally debilitating. The little 2 year old girl who grabbed my fingers for one minute the only time we visited friends and went to the hospital with pneumonia 4 days later I am eternally sorry for infecting her.

The wracking cough for the last 4 days that left me a shaking shivering red ball of pain all night long...Well I'm glad I survived. And that I didn't bring it to NZ 12 days after probable exposure. May have been a different ball game here.

Flu not.

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There’s a reasonable chance I had a touch of it too for 3 days in late Jan after returning from the month of December in Italy. But as others have said, even if that were true it’s no good reason to risk re-infecting myself or infecting others until tests and understanding get greatly more certain. Since I am willing and able to, I will remain a monk and a hermit for the foreseeable future. 

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On 5/18/2020 at 9:20 AM, Rennmaus said:

Angela Merkel is a scientist.
 

 

 

I could cry (in envy). But imagine her trying go explain this to Trumpb

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I would like to know if I had it in early February and have enough antibodies that my plasma could be useful. Also interesting that it was here much earlier than thought. 

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23 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

I would like to know if I had it in early February and have enough antibodies that my plasma could be useful. Also interesting that it was here much earlier than thought. 

Bold: Absolutely. Could be valid for many countries, even China. There are rumors that cases occurred in CHN as early as October 2019, so the Monster had enough time to spread via international travel undetected. NB: Rumors, not scientific fact.

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15 hours ago, barfy said:

I'm pretty sure I caught an early case late November in Shanghai. 

 

15 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

There’s a reasonable chance I had a touch of it too for 3 days in late Jan after returning from the month of December in Italy. 

 

A recent development is that an analysis of blood donated on Feb 21 (the date of the so-called Patient 1) in Milan, has shown that fully 5% of samples already had Covid antibodies!

The hypothesis is that the virus started to circulate much earlier than previously thought, in Sept, but in a milder form. This would explain the suspect cases that developed during the Military Olympics that were held in Wuhan at the end of Oct and involved Italian, French and Swedish athletes. By Jan, the virus was then well established in Europe and it then mutated in the nastier form that exploded

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 2 cases in Snohomish County just north of Seattle are being reassessed now and they appear to have been C19 ... from all the way back in December. 

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3 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

Do you really think it will be gone from all of Europe by July?  That would be super.  Only takes a couple of tourists...

As in Groundhog Day: have you read Tomas Pueyo’s masterly The Hammer and the Dance? All of Europe (except Sweden, with questionable results) is religiously following his script of virus Suppression, and has currently begun the Dance phase. Where key items are testing and tracing, as well as maintaining basic social spacing precautions. In this respect, the feedback after the first post-lockdown week-end is that, predictably, youngsters are the problem. But also here authorities are ready, witness this video immediately put out by the Veneto Region

 

The key concept of the Dance phase is keeping contagion under control (R<1) until a vaccine becomes availablec, NOT virus eradication NZ-style

 

In this connection, can our Kiwi friends explain NZ’s game plan? That is, one hears of moats, Fortress NZ: fine, you are eradicating the virus and hope to go back to convivial restaurants, no masks and the like. But this carries immense costs and is it sustainable? I mean, you cannot plan on having international visitors endure a 28 day quarantine forever - or, again, until a vaccine is found

 

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^ Unfortunately, it will become a wild dance. Just look at the idiots in Frankfurt attending a religious service, resulting in more than 100 infections.

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6 minutes ago, Rennmaus said:

^ Unfortunately, it will become a wild dance. Just look at the idiots in Frankfurt attending a religious service, resulting in more than 100 infections.

Yes - and, in Italy, the scene everywhere was not quite as idylic as SR’s pictures would show - but the authorities are alerted, the testing infrastructure is there, you might even say that with the high unemployement tracing manpower is available

 

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3 hours ago, Xlot said:

 

 

A recent development is that an analysis of blood donated on Feb 21 (the date of the so-called Patient 1) in Milan, has shown that fully 5% of samples already had Covid antibodies!

The hypothesis is that the virus started to circulate much earlier than previously thought, in Sept, but in a milder form. This would explain the suspect cases that developed during the Military Olympics that were held in Wuhan at the end of Oct and involved Italian, French and Swedish athletes. By Jan, the virus was then well established in Europe and it then mutated in the nastier form that exploded

I've wondered about this myself. I had two work  trips to Europe for a week plus each late last year, plus another to AUS in February. I came back from that with what I thought was a severe case of jet lag, but which lasted for weeks. On those jobs, I worked closely with people from China, Japan, and Australasia, as well as Europe. I still feel pretty mediocre, but am asymptomatic when it comes to fever and SPO2, which I monitor daily.

Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to get a reliable antibody test in the US. Unless you are symptomatic, forget about any test, whether it is to identify either the virus or the antibodies. Just isn't happening where I live in Florida.

As Trump says, if you do less testing, you find fewer cases, and he looks better. The rest of us, unfortunately, live in fear for our lives, particularly those of us who are older.

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1 hour ago, Xlot said:

As in Groundhog Day: have you read Tomas Pueyo’s masterly The Hammer and the Dance? All of Europe (except Sweden, with questionable results) is religiously following his script of virus Suppression, and has currently begun the Dance phase. Where key items are testing and tracing, as well as maintaining basic social spacing precautions. In this respect, the feedback after the first post-lockdown week-end is that, predictably, youngsters are the problem. But also here authorities are ready, witness this video immediately put out by the Veneto Region

 

The key concept of the Dance phase is keeping contagion under control (R<1) until a vaccine becomes availablec, NOT virus eradication NZ-style

 

In this connection, can our Kiwi friends explain NZ’s game plan? That is, one hears of moats, Fortress NZ: fine, you are eradicating the virus and hope to go back to convivial restaurants, no masks and the like. But this carries immense costs and is it sustainable? I mean, you cannot plan on having international visitors endure a 28 day quarantine forever - or, again, until a vaccine is found

 

Actually if you paid attention to Thomas' articles you'd know that NZ has been regarded as a text book example of his thinking. Just because our hammer was hard enough to essential destroy the virus doesn't change the necessary dance to come.

The dance requires an r value below 1, the lower the better, and the optimal is that no one else becomes infected. The only reason you'd want infections is if you are going for herd immunity, which if course is exactly the opposite of what he is arguing for.

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49 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

The dance requires an r value below 1, the lower the better, and the optimal is that no one else becomes infected. The only reason you'd want infections is if you are going for herd immunity, which if course is exactly the opposite of what he is arguing for.

My doubt is: aren’t you overdoing it? Meaning with R just below 1 (as what Europe’s settling for) you’d have plenty of Dance partners - to say nothing of AC teams - while with R approaching zero at most you’d have to congregate with Aussies

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1 minute ago, Xlot said:

My doubt is: aren’t you overdoing it? Meaning with R just below 1 (as what Europe’s settling for) you’d have plenty of Dance partners - to say nothing of AC teams - while with R approaching zero at most you’d have to congregate with Aussies

Actually, the lower the r-value, the more headroom you have to congregate with nations with much higher r-values. But I'm not sure there actually is a version of 'overdoing' saving lives, whilst we do exactly what Tomas says - bide time and wait for a vaccine or highly effective treatment. Tomas regards eradication as the best option for a society, but appreciates in most casts this is no longer an option.

There are several stages to control an epidemic, starting with anticipation and ending with eradication. But it’s too late for most options today. With this level of cases, the only options politicians have in front of them are containment, mitigation or suppression.

Not only are we saving lives, but if you've continued reading Tomas's follow-up articles you'd note that he regards the lower the r-value, the quicker the economy can recover too.

I like Tomas's metaphor as to COVID being like a war against an insidious invading force that can sneak into your country, become and invisible and start killing people randomly.

In many nations, these invisible soldiers are still afoot all across the country, and so many measures are being taken to defend against them. In NZ's case, we've nearly repelled these forces back to the border - a much better place to efficiently control their constant attempts at invasion. 

Just a point to clarify - NZ is not trying to eradicate COVID, the language the NZ government uses has been very specific from day one. We are trying to eliminate the virus from the community. We accept it likely will still exist at the border, and possibly just inside it from time-to-time, but given good processes, enforced quarantine, our ability to test and quarantine 100% of all arrivals, plus a national contracting tracing capability, we are trying to do our best at the dance.

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^sounds ok to me. We got uneven (varies by state, county, city) diagnostic and antibody testing availability in a country of over 300 million, no real population sampling to see exposure rates, uneven and often poorly trained tracers (varies by jurisdiction), waning public interest in mitigation, and a lunatic in charge. 

I would much rather wait for the vaccine in NZ or even Australia ;)

 

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3 hours ago, rh3000 said:

Actually, the lower the r-value, the more headroom you have to congregate with nations with much higher r-values.

Just a point to clarify - NZ is not trying to eradicate COVID, the language the NZ government uses has been very specific from day one. We are trying to eliminate the virus from the community. We accept it likely will still exist at the border, and possibly just inside it from time-to-time, but given good processes, enforced quarantine, our ability to test and quarantine 100% of all arrivals, plus a national contracting tracing capability, we are trying to do our best at the dance.

So you are still coming back with the same theory.

Obviously NZ can only eliminate the virus in their own country but will have to wait for the world to eradicate it before they can open their borders. That means that the planet has to be under r1 for some times, perhaps a very long time until we find a vaccine, if any.

At the same time Italy plans to open their borders June 3rd without quarantine, which is relevant with the AC isn't it ?

You claim that one strategy is better than another one, I already said that we have to wait until it finishes before we know.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/16/business/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-italy-open-borders.html

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

You claim that one strategy is better than another one, I already said that we have to wait until it finishes before we know.

NZ 21 deaths

France 28,367 deaths

Some of the facts are already in Pepe..

 

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6 hours ago, Rennmaus said:

^ Unfortunately, it will become a wild dance. Just look at the idiots in Frankfurt attending a religious service, resulting in more than 100 infections.

600194164_2Q.jpeg.c202d5934ae5c6145c8eaaec15d721ee.jpeg

Memorial weekend party. 

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22 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

I am not in France, and we have to wait until the end to count and compare. Sad reality.

Nah... we can count now actually... 

It's still quite funny that you are such a coward you won't even tell people which country you live in, lest you be accused of being a fan of any given team... you now also appear to be playing the same game with COVID outcomes.

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