Jump to content

Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


Recommended Posts

From New York Times Magazine today. A very interesting read, especially after President Trump, said that he can override the Governors and that "I have great authority if I want to use it." He doesn't have that authority, but it is indicative of problems on the horizon.

"The politics of the coronavirus have made it seem indecent to talk about the future. As President Trump has flirted with reopening America quickly — saying in late March that he’d like to see “packed churches” on Easter and returning to the theme days ago with “we cannot let this continue” — public-health experts have felt compelled to call out the dangers. Many Americans have responded by rejecting as monstrous the whole idea of any trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy. And in the near term, it’s true that those two goals align: For the sake of both, it’s imperative to keep businesses shuttered and people in their homes as much as possible.

In the longer run, though, it’s important to acknowledge that a trade-off will emerge — and become more urgent in the coming months, as the economy slides deeper into recession. The staggering toll of unemployment has reached more than 16 million in just the last three weeks. There will be difficult compromises between doing everything possible to save lives from Covid-19 and preventing other life-threatening, or -altering, harms.

When can we ethically bring people back to work and school and begin to resume the usual rhythms of American life? We brought together by video conference five different kinds of experts to talk about the principles and values that will determine the choices we make at that future point. One of them, the bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, led a group from the Center for American Progress that earlier this month presented a plan to end the coronavirus crisis. First, the group said, the country needs a national stay-at-home policy through mid-May. (Eight governors still haven’t issued such orders statewide.) In the intervening weeks, testing would have to ramp up to test everyone who has a fever, or lives with someone who tests positive for Covid-19. Contact-tracing — identifying and notifying people who have been in proximity to someone infected — would become comprehensive. People who have the virus or a fever, or those in proximity to them, would be isolated. There would also be testing of a representative sample in every county, to determine the rate of infection in the population, as well as mapping and alerts to inform the public about the location of Covid-19 cases.

If these efforts are successfully put in place, Emanuel hopes the current restrictions could begin to ease in June. At that point — or later, if the necessary steps have not been taken — we will need to rethink how we manage risk, recognizing trade-offs among various harms and benefits. That’s what the panel discussed."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/magazine/coronavirus-economy-debate.html

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

You're a smart guy. You're obviously aware that New Zealand is a suburb of Bondi, just round the corner from Random's joint in Queensland.  BJ can just yell over the fence at him.  Yes, the USA i

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the great

Of course what I think has not bearing.  But the example was raised and I am free to render my opinion--if Bus Driver didn't want a reaction, he wouldn't have posted that.   I actually feel sorry for

Posted Images

The sooner the restrictions are relaxed the sooner the second wave begins.  They need to do the math on when the hospitals will be able to handle it.

People are going to die no matter what we do and no one has a crystal ball.  Do the math and pick what appears to be the best option.

Michigan has a bigger infection than most. Our curve is flattening but our hospitals are on the edge.  Field hospitals are starting to fill.

Curves show we might be on top of this by the second week of May. In Michigan.

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

The sooner the restrictions are relaxed the sooner the second wave begins.  They need to do the math on when the hospitals will be able to handle it.

People are going to die no matter what we do and no one has a crystal ball.  Do the math and pick what appears to be the best option.

What bothers me is that Trump is discouraging testing. We can't really move forward until we can safely mix again. The only thing that I can come up with for this reticence, is his fear of a large number of deaths that would affect his approval rating. If we don't test, and start the economy too early, it will be like we did nothing about this at all.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, badlatitude said:

What bothers me is that Trump is discouraging testing. We can't really move forward until we can safely mix again. The only thing that I can come up with for this reticence, is his fear of a large number of deaths that would affect his approval rating. If we don't test, and start the economy too early, it will be like we did nothing about this at all.

I think that you're wrong.  We can't stop this virus.  It will never be safe.  I think pragmatically we have to move forward assuming everyone is going to get it.  Our task is to keep the curve flat enough that the hospitals can treat people.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Grrr... said:

I think that you're wrong.  We can't stop this virus.  It will never be safe.  I think pragmatically we have to move forward assuming everyone is going to get it.  Our task is to keep the curve flat enough that the hospitals can treat people.

Opening the economy without testing will just create a rolling crisis where there will be multiple lockdowns, more hoarding, and violence. We can stop this virus, it's just the terms of doing that are unacceptable to some.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

I think that you're wrong.  We can't stop this virus.  It will never be safe.  I think pragmatically we have to move forward assuming everyone is going to get it.  Our task is to keep the curve flat enough that the hospitals can treat people.

I agree with this to a large extent, my GF has a 21yo son who has Type 1 diabetes.  If he gets it, it could be a struggle.  With the hospitals where they are today, if he takes 3x the resources of a 'normal' patient with COVID-19, will he get the care he needs.  In a month or two, the answer might be absolutely, today, that's not clear.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:

I agree with this to a large extent, my GF has a 21yo son who has Type 1 diabetes.  If he gets it, it could be a struggle.  With the hospitals where they are today, if he takes 3x the resources of a 'normal' patient with COVID-19, will he get the care he needs.  In a month or two, the answer might be absolutely, today, that's not clear.  

No.  In a world of triage, he will not.  That's what is happening in Italy.  That's exactly why we need to stay home until our hospitals catch a breather and can make room for more cases.

Now I'm talking Michigan specific.  We're further along than most places.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:

I agree with this to a large extent, my GF has a 21yo son who has Type 1 diabetes.  If he gets it, it could be a struggle.  With the hospitals where they are today, if he takes 3x the resources of a 'normal' patient with COVID-19, will he get the care he needs.  In a month or two, the answer might be absolutely, today, that's not clear.  

Hey, I assume you did not in fact get Coronavirus?  Good news.  We don’t need to be losing good posters. Malarkey, Mikey and Bravo Bravo are a different story..

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

I think that you're wrong.  We can't stop this virus.  It will never be safe.  I think pragmatically we have to move forward assuming everyone is going to get it.  Our task is to keep the curve flat enough that the hospitals can treat people.

Sadly this

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Fakenews said:

Hey, I assume you did not in fact get Coronavirus?  Good news.  We don’t need to be losing good posters. Malarkey, Mikey and Bravo Bravo are a different story..

No, I did, and that's why my GF is leaving care packages and we're not seeing each other.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:

No, I did, and that's why my GF is leaving care packages and we're not seeing each other.

Good luck. I'm assuming if you're posting here then you aren't doing too horribly.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

Now I'm talking Michigan specific.  We're further along than most places.

An ex-GF is a Hospital Chaplain (St Marys, Livonia) and we traded texts today and she said it is absolute madness right now.  I'm optimistically thinking maybe 6wks for hospitals here to be reasonably normal.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

No, I did, and that's why my GF is leaving care packages and we're not seeing each other.

Good luck to you. I will be hoping you do well.

Monitor your symptoms carefully, and know that it can be a bit of a roller coaster with dramatic reversals possible. Do not become sanguine: if you get short of breath, get into a hospital quickly.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:

An ex-GF is a Hospital Chaplain (St Marys, Livonia) and we traded texts today and she said it is absolute madness right now.  I'm optimistically thinking maybe 6wks for hospitals here to be reasonably normal.  

Los Angeles extended the quarantine today until May 15th.

Edit: I wish you well also

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Grrr... said:

Good luck. I'm assuming if you're posting here then you aren't doing too horribly.

From everything I've read, I showed minimal affects.  No significant respiratory or coughing issues.  Several days of bad fever and associated aches.  For me, just a bad case of the flu. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

The sooner the restrictions are relaxed the sooner the second wave begins.  They need to do the math on when the hospitals will be able to handle it.

People are going to die no matter what we do and no one has a crystal ball.  Do the math and pick what appears to be the best option.

Respectfully disagree - periodic random sampling can tell us what we need to know. 

So fa, doing it are Iceland, Norway, Finland, Ohio, Germany that I know of . .  

It is a total no-brainer. 

For Jeebus & Gawd's sake, even the Naional Review gets it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:

From everything I've read, I showed minimal affects.  No significant respiratory or coughing issues.  Several days of bad fever and associated aches.  For me, just a bad case of the flu. 

Hang in the Mr. Cal - and thanks for the kind word PM a few days ago. 

In a couple of months I'd like to invite you down to Sandusky for a cook-out and a sail on our awesome Bay. 

Bring the GF too 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AJ Oliver said:

Respectfully disagree - periodic random sampling can tell us what we need to know. 

So fa, doing it are Iceland, Norway, Finland, Ohio, Germany that I know of . .  

It is a total no-brainer. 

For Jeebus & Gawd's sake, even the Naional Review gets it. 

There are some problems with that.  There is no 100% way to verify you are virus free.  They are finding people who have had it and recovered are also testing positive again weeks later.  They may also be carriers.

Once people are coming into contact again it will begin transmitting again regardless of what we do. Of course, I'm just guessing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Raz'r said:

Damnit (the LA thing)

The hard fact of life is that we cannot stay bunkered until they come up with a vaccine. It isn't feasible economically, medically, or socially. We need to have a national discussion about this, a rational plan with benefits and cost. Otherwise, there will be chaos.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

The hard fact of life is that we cannot stay bunkered until they come up with a vaccine. It isn't feasible economically, medically, or socially. We need to have a national discussion about this, a rational plan with benefits and cost. Otherwise, there will be chaos.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

There are some problems with that.  There is no 100% way to verify you are virus free.  They are finding people who have had it and recovered are also testing positive again weeks later.  They may also be carriers.

That is why you repeat the random samples periodically. 

Otherwise, if you lift the lockdown thinking the infection rate is low, you could very easily be wrong. 

Seriously, those social Sci guys are very good at drawing a representative sample of populations 

Generally they do it to manipulate your vote  . .

Link to post
Share on other sites

Round two?

South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again

South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.

South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.

 

The prospect of people being reinfected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.

"The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

South Korea had recorded 10,450 confirmed cases as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 208 deaths.

More than 7,100 South Koreans were believed to have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

Link to post
Share on other sites

look at the big picture , aka globally .

we either learn real quick that it really is a global village and we all depend on each other  or sections will need to hermetically seal .

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fakenews said:

Hey, I assume you did not in fact get Coronavirus?  Good news.  We don’t need to be losing good posters. Malarkey, Mikey and Bravo Bravo are a different story..

Wishing misfortune on others is a sign of emotional illness, in my opinion.

Seek help.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of testing, Brother, SIL and 2 adult children have all the signs. Fortunately not too I’ll, fever and cough. Minneapolis suburbs. Nephew went in for a check as he had pneumonia a few month back. X-ray yes given history. virus test? No. Not sick enough. 
no test, no problem!

eh Mikey?

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Round two?

South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again

South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.

South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.

 

The prospect of people being reinfected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.

"The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

South Korea had recorded 10,450 confirmed cases as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 208 deaths.

More than 7,100 South Koreans were believed to have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

Wait until the illiterati hear that. Holy Easter and take the communion, Batman!

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Speaking of testing, Brother, SIL and 2 adult children have all the signs. Fortunately not too I’ll, fever and cough. Minneapolis suburbs. Nephew went in for a check as he had pneumonia a few month back. X-ray yes given history. virus test? No. Not sick enough. 
no test, no problem!

eh Mikey?

I don't understand this. Countries who are successfully containing/surpressing this are testing something like 14,000 people per million or more. They got the tests from somewhere.

The Usa is further behind the curve and testing half that and the Press let him get away with bragging meaningless numbers.

Surely even the Elk are not stupid enough to believe his simplistic half truths.

You have more cases than China, even if one accepts your population as 10x most other countries, your infection rate is more like 50x everywhere. most countries deaths are under 1000.

Trump's glibly stated that 100,000 deaths would be a good result. Where's the riots?

Has he got the country hypnotized?

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, badlatitude said:

What bothers me is that Trump is discouraging testing. We can't really move forward until we can safely mix again. The only thing that I can come up with for this reticence, is his fear of a large number of deaths that would affect his approval rating. If we don't test, and start the economy too early, it will be like we did nothing about this at all.

Relax..If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped. He is in fact bragging about doing the most testing, we have the best tests, nobody tests like we test.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, badlatitude said:

The hard fact of life is that we cannot stay bunkered until they come up with a vaccine. It isn't feasible economically, medically, or socially. We need to have a national discussion about this, a rational plan with benefits and cost.

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the greater public.   Simply put, 'rational' means you have to be able to apply some sort of value judgement (qualitative, if not quantitative) on human life, and that's just beyond what can be discussed in America.

I think we're going to emotionally lurch back and forth between societal guard rails until there are treatments/vaccines that get the severity of infection under what can be handled in local hospitals.  And then COVID becomes the flu, or diabetes, or drug overdoses, or other 'acceptable' morbidity risks and people put it out of their minds and watch football and fireworks and sail on a beautiful summer afternoon again.

Now the stuff that's going to get me in trouble - the same personality features of Trump that made him pretty awful going into the COVID crisis are actually going to play fairly well coming the other side.  I know people don't want to hear that.  Trump is an emotionally driven pitchman who 'reads the crowd'.   He shut everything down (late)  and he's probably going to open things up (early) because the majority of Americans aren't really that rational.  We want what we want, not based on "reason" or logic.  Yea.. 'This feels like it's been long enough..."  And Trump caters to it.

And unlike most politicians, he doesn't mind changing direction.  For 99% of politicians in democratic governments, the idea of shutting down, then reopening, then shutting down again is terrifying.  They could be wrong and 'blood will be on their hands'!  Trump won't give a shit.  He'll mouth the words about ** most important decision of my presidency **  but he doesn't believe that.  He's reading the crowd.  He'll keep the quarantine in place until a majority push back.. he's a populist through and through.  Then he'll reopen.  And if it goes badly and people start getting angsty, he'll requarantine.  There is no logic to a populist.  It's mob rule.

I can tell you that the business folks I deal with are planning on May 18th as the day the national quarantine guidance is lifted.  That's essentially the end of the '6-8 weeks' initial estimate.

EDIT _ BTW, by 'quarantine guidance lifted' I mean an expansion is the definition of "critical."  Places like barber shops and TJ MAXX will reopen.  I think some restaurants may reopen with isolated seating for example.  They will have limited access, 6' boundaries, masks, etc.  There won't be professional conferences, sporting events, concerts, or major gatherings for the rest of this year IMHO. 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, badlatitude said:

From New York Times Magazine today. A very interesting read, especially after President Trump, said that he can override the Governors and that "I have great authority if I want to use it." He doesn't have that authority, but it is indicative of problems on the horizon.

"The politics of the coronavirus have made it seem indecent to talk about the future. As President Trump has flirted with reopening America quickly — saying in late March that he’d like to see “packed churches” on Easter and returning to the theme days ago with “we cannot let this continue” — public-health experts have felt compelled to call out the dangers. Many Americans have responded by rejecting as monstrous the whole idea of any trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy. And in the near term, it’s true that those two goals align: For the sake of both, it’s imperative to keep businesses shuttered and people in their homes as much as possible.

In the longer run, though, it’s important to acknowledge that a trade-off will emerge — and become more urgent in the coming months, as the economy slides deeper into recession. The staggering toll of unemployment has reached more than 16 million in just the last three weeks. There will be difficult compromises between doing everything possible to save lives from Covid-19 and preventing other life-threatening, or -altering, harms.

When can we ethically bring people back to work and school and begin to resume the usual rhythms of American life? We brought together by video conference five different kinds of experts to talk about the principles and values that will determine the choices we make at that future point. One of them, the bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, led a group from the Center for American Progress that earlier this month presented a plan to end the coronavirus crisis. First, the group said, the country needs a national stay-at-home policy through mid-May. (Eight governors still haven’t issued such orders statewide.) In the intervening weeks, testing would have to ramp up to test everyone who has a fever, or lives with someone who tests positive for Covid-19. Contact-tracing — identifying and notifying people who have been in proximity to someone infected — would become comprehensive. People who have the virus or a fever, or those in proximity to them, would be isolated. There would also be testing of a representative sample in every county, to determine the rate of infection in the population, as well as mapping and alerts to inform the public about the location of Covid-19 cases.

If these efforts are successfully put in place, Emanuel hopes the current restrictions could begin to ease in June. At that point — or later, if the necessary steps have not been taken — we will need to rethink how we manage risk, recognizing trade-offs among various harms and benefits. That’s what the panel discussed."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/magazine/coronavirus-economy-debate.html

Trump can over-ride the governors to some degree but there is no national police force to enforce anything he says.

The governors can over-ride mayors and mayors can demand laws.  Neither of them have enough police to enforce much.

That drops it down to the next level of government, the people.  Social pressure can be applied but there are those who willfully elect to ignore that and actually take some pride in it.

As individuals though we can take action.  So far, social distancing and isolation seem to be effective as is wearing masks.  Prophylaxis is going to be a way of life for at least the next two years.  It's always worked for Flu season but we still lose lives.

So, what politicians say won't matter much to me.  I won't be hitting  a sports bar for a big game or the local Irish pub on St. Patrick's day or any other crowded location.  I don't do churches and religion so that's not a problem.  I hope I'll be able to find a decent restaurant that doesn't try to pack as many tables as possible into the available space. 

A lot of large venues like stadiums, arenas, churches and the Kennedy Center need to be mothballed indefinitely right now.  I don't see them coming back on line for a couple of years.

That said, somebody has to be developing some measure of the effects of the disease on the population.  We simply do not have valid figures or models right now.  That will become the function of normal healthcare testing once we determine which of the many tests currently under development are best and determining exposure, infection and immunity.  Eventually there will be a vaccine with some measure of effectiveness.  LIke SARS, MERS and HIV, it is not likely that there will be an effective cure, just a way to live with the disease.

It looks like a new culture will develop and from that a new society.  That will come from the people, not the politicians.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Some might suggest if we were  truly interested in improving our society post pandemic, we would be holding HUGE Trump rallies. 
Unfortunately, most of them would live through the disease and, because of their shared experience, they would be permanently glued together as a voting block. 
    The fact is, the disease is here to stay for a very long time. Eventually, virtually everyone will be exposed and either live or die. 
   Our very best chance relies on small doses of exposure causing less serious individual illness and each of us who survives carries long term immunity.  
If that happens we can go back to having festivals, concerts, NASCAR, FIFA, NBA. NFL, Olympics, Pope visits, visits to Mecca, Disneyworld, State fairs, College football, topless bars, and mega churches. 
   Currently, opening any of the above would result in huge numbers of  deaths 
 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Grrr... said:

There are some problems with that.  There is no 100% way to verify you are virus free.  They are finding people who have had it and recovered are also testing positive again weeks later.  They may also be carriers.

Once people are coming into contact again it will begin transmitting again regardless of what we do. Of course, I'm just guessing.

Virus free is a fluid concept.  Infection free or immune are less difficult but that is where random testing can help.  I think that once we have decided on which of the current multitude of different tests are most effective that they will be generally available in hospitals and medical labs and we can make definitive diagnoses during routine visits.

For example, most people get a flu shot evey year.  That procedure could be changed to also collect a sample to test for SARS-Cov-2.  It wouldn't hurt to take all those samples to another level to determine new strains as they develop.

It's going to be a quite a while before people feel as safe with COVID as they do with "the seaslonal flu" though.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

Some might suggest if we were  truly interested in improving our society post pandemic, we would be holding HUGE Trump rallies. 
Unfortunately, most of them would live through the disease and, because of their shared experience, they would be permanently glued together as a voting block. 
    The fact is, the disease is here to stay for a very long time. Eventually, virtually everyone will be exposed and either live or die. 
   Our very best chance relies on small doses of exposure causing less serious individual illness and each of us who survives carries long term immunity.  
 

You seem to be the only one making that stupid assumption.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Saorsa said:
7 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

You seem to be the only one making that stupid assumption.

 

5 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

 Gouvernail wrote: The fact is, the disease is here to stay for a very long time. Eventually, virtually everyone will be exposed and either live or die
   Our very best chance relies on small doses of exposure causing less serious individual illness and each of us who survives carries long term immunity.  

If you think I am the only one who understands what I described as reality, you are woefully ignorant. 
 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

If you think I am the only one who understands what I described as reality, you are woefully ignorant. 
 

I'm sure there are others who share your perception of reality.  Really.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, badlatitude said:

There will be difficult compromises between doing everything possible to save lives from Covid-19 and preventing other life-threatening, or -altering, harms.

One of the issues here is we have the media, and thus the masses, laser focused on COVID deaths.  And when there's a single cause for a lot of death, the natural inclination is to do whatever it takes to eliminate whatever it is that's causing all the deaths.

Over 2,000 deaths were caused by the 9/11 attacks.  American went full on to make sure that never happens and poured trillions into that effort with thousands more dying in the hopes of achieving that goal.  No one talks about all the Americans who lost their lives, and are still losing their lives, in that effort because we were so focused on making sure we'd never see another 9/11 again. 

We've have justified that cost with an emotional, irrational response.  And we might be doing that again.

There will be deaths attributed to sheltering in place. but when they happen, they will never get the attention the media is giving to COVID deaths, if they get any attention at all.  Depression, loneliness, inability to pay for proper health care, starvation, etc.  People who, in normal times may not have died, will die because of how we are reacting to COVID.  Maybe we need to start keeping track of those deaths, too.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it is critical to appreciate that the return to normalcy will be a process and not an event. Trump being the simple-minded soul he is (I assume he has a soul of sorts), thinks you can say 'it' will happen on May 1st.There is no 'it', Things will be relaxed gradually and following different paths in different places. Best to look at some of the pioneers in this like China, South Korea, and Japan. It is working better in SK than Japan for example. China has imposed a massive monitoring system that is likely not possible, politically and technically, in the West.

A vacinologist (who knew there were such things) at Oxford was quoted yesterday that she there is an 80% chance a vaccine will be ready for use by September. That might be out best shot. I wonder how long it takes to make seven billions doses?

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, mikewof said:

Wishing misfortune on others is a sign of emotional illness, in my opinion.

Seek help.

What?  I merely said you and the elk are not good and valued posters here.  Don’t be like Jerkz and assume that means people want to kill you.

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

I think it is critical to appreciate that the return to normalcy will be a process and not an event. Trump being the simple-minded soul he is (I assume he has a soul of sorts), thinks you can say 'it' will happen on May 1st.There is no 'it', Things will be relaxed gradually and following different paths in different places. Best to look at some of the pioneers in this like China, South Korea, and Japan. It is working better in SK than Japan for example. China has imposed a massive monitoring system that is likely not possible, politically and technically, in the West.

A vacinologist (who knew there were such things) at Oxford was quoted yesterday that she there is an 80% chance a vaccine will be ready for use by September. That might be out best shot. I wonder how long it takes to make seven billions doses?

We only have to make 5B.. Shithole countries without nuclear weapons or oil  won’t be a priority......

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it should be optional. Let the folks who think it’s no big deal go out and get the advantage of participating in the economy sooner than others. Go to restaurants, bars, churches, etc. 

Also let those who are essential workers require those who opt out to be excluded from their businesses. Don’t want to wear a mask? Go to the store that doesn’t require one. 
 

Let bullshitters put their money (and lives) where their mouths are. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I think it should be optional. Let the folks who think it’s no big deal go out and get the advantage of participating in the economy sooner than others. Go to restaurants, bars, churches, etc. 

So long as those who serve get the necessary support from our government - a letter in today's local paper:

LETTER: I will continue to serve my country

Editor:

I am being deployed again tomorrow at the grocery store where I work. I am being asked to support those who wish to purchase products necessary to combat the most recent strain of coronavirus as well as those who wish to do normal, everyday shopping.

I have begun to develop symptoms of PTSD, but will continue to serve my country as best I can. I am confident that my government has included in the $2.2 trillion bailout package the money required to provide the necessary assistance I may need.

God bless America.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dog said:

Relax..If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped. He is in fact bragging about doing the most testing, we have the best tests, nobody tests like we test.

I assume you meant to use the purple font, didn't you?

You can sort the Worldometer data by the field you want. If you do this you find that the US is ranked 39th in terms of number of tests per million people at 7670. A number of countries above the US are very small for what this worth, but these include places like Iceland with 100,000 per million. You could say they have a small population but they also have small financial resources and no domestic sources of sophisticated testing. Some not small countries - Norway 22,700, Germany 15,700, Italy 15,000, Australia 13, 269, etc. The US is just not doing well with testing in spite of recent ramp up. Also testing in the country is not uniform. Not surprisingly New York has a lot at 21,000 while Kansas has only 3900 which would put Kansas between Croatia and Djibouti on the world list.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped

He explicitly said we don't need widespread testing. Basically some experts said we need widespread testing and the Dumpster Fire said nah, I don't think so. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jules said:

So long as those who serve get the necessary support from our government - a letter in today's local paper:

LETTER: I will continue to serve my country

Editor:

I am being deployed again tomorrow at the grocery store where I work. I am being asked to support those who wish to purchase products necessary to combat the most recent strain of coronavirus as well as those who wish to do normal, everyday shopping.

I have begun to develop symptoms of PTSD, but will continue to serve my country as best I can. I am confident that my government has included in the $2.2 trillion bailout package the money required to provide the necessary assistance I may need.

God bless America.

 

That’s just not going to happen, unless a percentage of the money allocated could be transferred to the Best Americans as part of the transaction. By “percentage” I mean somewhere north of 95%. 
 

Anything less would be socialism. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Saorsa said:

A lot of large venues like stadiums, arenas, churches and the Kennedy Center need to be mothballed indefinitely right now.  I don't see them coming back on line for a couple of years.

Of course, the magical vaccine (by magical, I mean total eradication) will change that prediction.  But other than that, I tend to disagree with the time you've estimated. 

Right now we know there are people who have been through the illness and come out on the other side carrying the COVID antibodies.  As those numbers grow, more and more people will start demanding a return to some semblance of normalcy.  And if in conjunction with obtaining accurate data on those who now carry the antibodies, we also compile data on how many have died due to social distancing and shutting down the economy, the attitude of the people will change.  The latter could become shocking. 

I believe the pendulum will settle somewhere close to what we have historically accepted for seasonal illness and deaths.  And it wouldn't be at all that surprising if that happened in less than a year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

That’s just not going to happen, unless a percentage of the money allocated could be transferred to the Best Americans as part of the transaction. By “percentage” I mean somewhere north of 95%. 
 

Anything less would be socialism. 

You mean like what's already happening with that $2.2T deal?

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

From everything I've read, I showed minimal affects.  No significant respiratory or coughing issues.  Several days of bad fever and associated aches.  For me, just a bad case of the flu. 

Did you get tested and return a positive?  

Get better!

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I think it should be optional. Let the folks who think it’s no big deal go out and get the advantage of participating in the economy sooner than others. Go to restaurants, bars, churches, etc. 

Also let those who are essential workers require those who opt out to be excluded from their businesses. Don’t want to wear a mask? Go to the store that doesn’t require one. 
 

Let bullshitters put their money (and lives) where their mouths are. 

Sol, your bubble is showing.

People all over the economy haven't stopped working.

There are millions of Americans (typically the kind who can't afford sailboats) who don't have a fat retirement income, or a cushy job that allows them to receive a paycheck for not leaving their house.

And if you haven't noticed, most everything in this lockdown has become more expensive. The store brands are limited, the cheap breakfast cereals are off the shelves, the cheap meats are replaced by better quality cuts.

Both of my older children lost their jobs and they have taken to doing shopping for people like you, at less than minimum wage rates.

Maybe you should realize that one of these "bullshitters" has a really nice truck with a mini sail loft in it.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, cmilliken said:

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the greater public.   Simply put, 'rational' means you have to be able to apply some sort of value judgement (qualitative, if not quantitative) on human life, and that's just beyond what can be discussed in America.

I think we're going to emotionally lurch back and forth between societal guard rails until there are treatments/vaccines that get the severity of infection under what can be handled in local hospitals.  And then COVID becomes the flu, or diabetes, or drug overdoses, or other 'acceptable' morbidity risks and people put it out of their minds and watch football and fireworks and sail on a beautiful summer afternoon again.

 

FWIW, I agree with you that we can't have a rational discussion on this board or in 'Murica.  I tried to address this exact question nearly a month ago and I was accused of wanting to put Granny on the ice floe.  

Yet now the exact same folks (not you CM) who attempted to shred me to pieces for daring to broach this exact subject (thread here) are now grudgingly coming around the idea that we will have to make some hard choices because you cannot stop the economy cold forever or even for a long period without long lasting and potentially greater damage than what you're supposedly trying to cure.  I, in no way, was suggesting that we reopen the economy on Mar 18th when I started that thread.  I was simply trying to get people to discuss the "idea" that at some point, we were going to have to make some hard choices.  

Sounds like ya'll are now contemplating putting granny on the ice flow after all.   You should be ashamed of yourselves.  Fucking Hypocrites!  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jules said:

So long as those who serve get the necessary support from our government - a letter in today's local paper:

LETTER: I will continue to serve my country

Editor:

I am being deployed again tomorrow at the grocery store where I work. I am being asked to support those who wish to purchase products necessary to combat the most recent strain of coronavirus as well as those who wish to do normal, everyday shopping.

I have begun to develop symptoms of PTSD, but will continue to serve my country as best I can. I am confident that my government has included in the $2.2 trillion bailout package the money required to provide the necessary assistance I may need.

God bless America.

 

Another PAer gets it. The ranks grow.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, badlatitude said:

The hard fact of life is that we cannot stay bunkered until they come up with a vaccine. It isn't feasible economically, medically, or socially. We need to have a national discussion about this, a rational plan with benefits and cost. Otherwise, there will be chaos.

Then why were you and your elk such cunts to me when I attempted to have a rational discussion about this a month ago???

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Short of testing 100% of the people in one day, testing is a 'feel good' plan.  Think of it this way- if we were to test 10% of the population each day, and  if you find a positive on day 5, that person(s) could have contaminated some of the first 40%.  Testing solves nothing!

Absent a vaccine-there is no safe way out of this.  

How has this affected me? I finished a Panama- Key West delivery in late March, and have shut down my deliveries.  I have 2 boats waiting for me and will likely not move them.  Financially, I do not need the money and deliver for the fun of it--- and to pay for fun vacations.  

Those who need the money are in a dilemma.  Do they go through their savings, or risk dying?  Or worse, risk getting a loved one ill, who in turn can die.  

The bullshit headline simply states a fact.  When the shutdown is lifted, the number of cases will increase and mortality will go up.  That is not Trumps fault, or Congress's fault, it is the nature of the shit show we are dealing with.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, inneedofadvice said:

I think the question is, are we ready to lose 90% of all the people in our lives over 70 years?

90%?

Statistically, we will eventually lose 100% of the people in our lives over 70 years old.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, roundthebuoys said:
10 hours ago, mikewof said:

I wouldn't call Gator "tone deaf" in wishing misfortune on others. Oblivious, perhaps. Ill, perhaps.

Clean should flick your fucking ass for good.

For what??  For suggesting that wishing someone would get sick and die because they politically disagree with them on a fucking internet forum has mental issues?  For one of the few times ever, mikey is right about this.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Speaking of testing, Brother, SIL and 2 adult children have all the signs. Fortunately not too I’ll, fever and cough. Minneapolis suburbs. Nephew went in for a check as he had pneumonia a few month back. X-ray yes given history. virus test? No. Not sick enough. 
no test, no problem!

eh Mikey?

Is there a reason why you're asking me about your family's health?

Fewer Americans per capita are now dying than at any other time in history. So statistically, you should have been more worried before this happened.

But logic has an historically shitty record on regulating fear, so go ahead and wring those hands.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Desert Racer said:

Then why were you and your elk such cunts to me when I attempted to have a rational discussion about this a month ago???

 

It’s all about the timing. We just took over the lead in the body count this morning. Let’s bask in the glory of being #1 for a bit. 
 

On the other hand, if the billionaires want to pay what it takes to get people to do their work for them, they should be allowed to get back to the business of having people make their fortune for them. Let those who think it’s safe throw caution to the wind and put their own asses on the line. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Desert Racer said:

For what??  For suggesting that wishing someone would get sick and die because they politically disagree with them on a fucking internet forum has mental issues?  For one of the few times ever, mikey is right about this.

I can only speak for myself (FN)  but the only person I’ve actively wished would get Coronavirus and die is Trump.  Many reasonable people agree with this though with some variation in modality (stroke, asteroid strike, bear attack, heart attack, flesh eating disease etc).  Otherwise I’ve simply noted that the elk are not good and valued posters.  Neither are our resident racists (who overlap with the elk).

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Snore said:

Short of testing 100% of the people in one day, testing is a 'feel good' plan.  Think of it this way- if we were to test 10% of the population each day, and  if you find a positive on day 5, that person(s) could have contaminated some of the first 40%.  Testing solves nothing!

Absent a vaccine-there is no safe way out of this.  

How has this affected me? I finished a Panama- Key West delivery in late March, and have shut down my deliveries.  I have 2 boats waiting for me and will likely not move them.  Financially, I do not need the money and deliver for the fun of it--- and to pay for fun vacations.  

Those who need the money are in a dilemma.  Do they go through their savings, or risk dying?  Or worse, risk getting a loved one ill, who in turn can die.  

The bullshit headline simply states a fact.  When the shutdown is lifted, the number of cases will increase and mortality will go up.  That is not Trumps fault, or Congress's fault, it is the nature of the shit show we are dealing with.

 

 

Testing is good if it can be done affordably, because it will dramatically lower the mortality rate simply by applying better data.

Although at this point. I suspect there are a few tens of millions of Americans who would support a continued lockdown even at 0.1% mortality rate.

This research suggests that the morality rate is closer to 0.01%, 

http://www.research-in-germany.org/news/2020/4/2020-04-07_COVID-19__on_average_only_6__of_actual_SARS-CoV-2_infections_detected_worldwide.html

But math too has an historically shitty record against fear.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

It’s all about the timing. We just took over the lead in the body count this morning. Let’s bask in the glory of being #1 for a bit. 
 

On the other hand, if the billionaires want to pay what it takes to get people to do their work for them, they should be allowed to get back to the business of having people make their fortune for them.Let those who think it’s safe throw caution to the wind and put their own asses on the line. 

FFS Sol, it's that bubble again ... there are tens of millions of Americans just as scared as you are who work because they have to provide for their families. They haven't stopped working.

"Essential services" in my area includes filling potholes, building a luxury hotel, and running liquor stores.

I do agree with you that this lockdown should have been voluntary from the beginning.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Snore said:

Short of testing 100% of the people in one day, testing is a 'feel good' plan.  Think of it this way- if we were to test 10% of the population each day, and  if you find a positive on day 5, that person(s) could have contaminated some of the first 40%.  Testing solves nothing!

Absent a vaccine-there is no safe way out of this.  

How has this affected me? I finished a Panama- Key West delivery in late March, and have shut down my deliveries.  I have 2 boats waiting for me and will likely not move them.  Financially, I do not need the money and deliver for the fun of it--- and to pay for fun vacations.  

Those who need the money are in a dilemma.  Do they go through their savings, or risk dying?  Or worse, risk getting a loved one ill, who in turn can die.  

The bullshit headline simply states a fact.  When the shutdown is lifted, the number of cases will increase and mortality will go up.  That is not Trumps fault, or Congress's fault, it is the nature of the shit show we are dealing with.

 

 

“Testing solves nothing”.  You’re a blithering idiot.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

No, I did, and that's why my GF is leaving care packages and we're not seeing each other.

Hope you recover back to full health soon. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, roundthebuoys said:
11 hours ago, mikewof said:

Wishing misfortune on others is a sign of emotional illness, in my opinion.

Seek help.

Most tone deaf asshole post ever.  Read the thread dick.

But he’s spot on with his self diagnosis....... and has hundreds of posts to prove it the last few weeks. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Desert Racer said:

For what??  For suggesting that wishing someone would get sick and die because they politically disagree with them on a fucking internet forum has mental issues?  For one of the few times ever, mikey is right about this.

I was talking about Mikey.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There should be a convention for all of the skeptics to celebrate the reopening of our economy. A huge party. Tremendous. On the National Mall. Get all the Faithfull together to celebrate owning the libs. Many people are suggesting it very strongly. Belief me. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, cmilliken said:

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the greater public.   Simply put, 'rational' means you have to be able to apply some sort of value judgement (qualitative, if not quantitative) on human life, and that's just beyond what can be discussed in America.

I think we're going to emotionally lurch back and forth between societal guard rails until there are treatments/vaccines that get the severity of infection under what can be handled in local hospitals.  And then COVID becomes the flu, or diabetes, or drug overdoses, or other 'acceptable' morbidity risks and people put it out of their minds and watch football and fireworks and sail on a beautiful summer afternoon again.

Now the stuff that's going to get me in trouble - the same personality features of Trump that made him pretty awful going into the COVID crisis are actually going to play fairly well coming the other side.  I know people don't want to hear that.  Trump is an emotionally driven pitchman who 'reads the crowd'.   He shut everything down (late)  and he's probably going to open things up (early) because the majority of Americans aren't really that rational.  We want what we want, not based on "reason" or logic.  Yea.. 'This feels like it's been long enough..."  And Trump caters to it.

And unlike most politicians, he doesn't mind changing direction.  For 99% of politicians in democratic governments, the idea of shutting down, then reopening, then shutting down again is terrifying.  They could be wrong and 'blood will be on their hands'!  Trump won't give a shit.  He'll mouth the words about ** most important decision of my presidency **  but he doesn't believe that.  He's reading the crowd.  He'll keep the quarantine in place until a majority push back.. he's a populist through and through.  Then he'll reopen.  And if it goes badly and people start getting angsty, he'll requarantine.  There is no logic to a populist.  It's mob rule.

I can tell you that the business folks I deal with are planning on May 18th as the day the national quarantine guidance is lifted.  That's essentially the end of the '6-8 weeks' initial estimate.

EDIT _ BTW, by 'quarantine guidance lifted' I mean an expansion is the definition of "critical."  Places like barber shops and TJ MAXX will reopen.  I think some restaurants may reopen with isolated seating for example.  They will have limited access, 6' boundaries, masks, etc.  There won't be professional conferences, sporting events, concerts, or major gatherings for the rest of this year IMHO. 

Excellent, cause I need a haircut.

Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Snore said:

Short of testing 100% of the people in one day, testing is a 'feel good' plan.  Think of it this way- if we were to test 10% of the population each day, and  if you find a positive on day 5, that person(s) could have contaminated some of the first 40%.  Testing solves nothing!

Absent a vaccine-there is no safe way out of this.  

How has this affected me? I finished a Panama- Key West delivery in late March, and have shut down my deliveries.  I have 2 boats waiting for me and will likely not move them.  Financially, I do not need the money and deliver for the fun of it--- and to pay for fun vacations.  

Those who need the money are in a dilemma.  Do they go through their savings, or risk dying?  Or worse, risk getting a loved one ill, who in turn can die.  

The bullshit headline simply states a fact.  When the shutdown is lifted, the number of cases will increase and mortality will go up.  That is not Trumps fault, or Congress's fault, it is the nature of the shit show we are dealing with.

 

 

Testing solves nothing? Going for the stupid post of the day?

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Is there a reason why you're asking me about your family's health?

Fewer Americans per capita are now dying than at any other time in history. So statistically, you should have been more worried before this happened.

But logic has an historically shitty record on regulating fear, so go ahead and wring those hands.

Just pointing out your continual lie that the numbers the Feds are reporting are both comprehensive and correct.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Trump is not going to be able to make the call to open the country.  Cuomo just told him so in no uncertain terms on national TV.  It will be the call of Blue state governors who lead the biggest economic engines in the country.  I trust them to make the hard decisions but know there will be mistake made along the way.

Link to post
Share on other sites