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Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


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38 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Until Mike can actually explain something so that it's factual and makes a slight smattering of sense, my take-away is that if renting refrigerated trucks to use as temporary morgues doesn't convince you, then you're probably not worth convincing

Just on the TV news- a farmer in Florida trying to get in a crop, his workers in gloves and masks. He said, ironically, although it's much harder to find workers he's not having to pay them much more, just take more time trying to keep them in some degree of compliance. And due to this crisis, they're much more likely to have access to health care (as long as the hospital isn't overflowing with Covid-19 cases)

- DSK

I've made a few mistakes here, and I've been thankfully corrected, but if you read what we are writing, you will likely find that it's not that complicated.

The refrigerated trucks as morgues is obviously necessary because so many people are dying. But if you look at data like this, the truth might be in there somewhere ... NYC's lack of pneumonia diagnoses versus SARS-CoV-2 is so dismal, that it's literally more than four times higher than NY State! And it's some twenty times worse than places like California, Massachusetts and Connecticut. If you want to know why those refrigerated trucks are there, maye you should start with the CDC data from the place that is bringing in those refrigerated trucks ...

New York City 114.4
New York 26.5
New Jersey 11.6
Michigan 7.6
Massachusetts 6.3
California 6.2
Washington 5.8
Pennsylvania 4.9
Florida 4.2
Louisiana 4.2
Illinois 4.1
Wisconsin 3.2
Maryland 2.8
Texas 2.3
Colorado 2.3
Virginia 1.9
Georgia 1.9
Mississippi 1.8
Iowa 1.1
South Carolina 1.1
Indiana 1.1
Arizona 1.0
Minnesota 1.0
Missouri 0.8
Oklahoma 0.8
Tennessee 0.8
Alabama 0.7
Vermont 0.6
Idaho 0.6
New Hampshire 0.6
Ohio 0.6
Nevada 0.6
Puerto Rico 0.5
Arkansas 0.5
Oregon 0.5
Kansas 0.3
Maine 0.3
Utah 0.2
South Dakota 0.1
Kentucky 0.1
District of Columbia 0.1
Montana 0.1
Rhode Island 0.1
Nebraska 0.0
New Mexico 0.0
Delaware 0.0
Alaska 0.0
Connecticut 0.0
Hawaii 0.0
North Carolina 0.0
North Dakota 0.0
West Virginia 0.0
Wyoming 0.0
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You're a smart guy. You're obviously aware that New Zealand is a suburb of Bondi, just round the corner from Random's joint in Queensland.  BJ can just yell over the fence at him.  Yes, the USA i

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the great

Of course what I think has not bearing.  But the example was raised and I am free to render my opinion--if Bus Driver didn't want a reaction, he wouldn't have posted that.   I actually feel sorry for

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4 hours ago, mikewof said:

We would come out of it eventually as people get bored of it. But yeah, business shuttered, little sales tax revenue. Boomers binging on Netflix, fewer State income tax revenues. Out-of-work Millennials, fewer property tax revenues. You're right; cascading failures.

And now we have the new threat of the CDC telling people to wear Cotton Mouth Hole Bacterial Incubators. If this facemask shit makes it into the heat of summer, it's going to start all over again as tens of thousands of Americans self-infect.

A few years ago during the previous SARS, I used to see a lot of Chinese Nationals wearing the facemasks. But this time, the Chinese students that I see in the supermarket almost never wear them. It seems they got the memo that we didn't.

You just can’t learn from Frenchie, can you. Wears a respirator every day on the job. No pneumonia. Where are all these carpenters, wood workers, factory guys with pneumonia? What, they don’t exist?

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10 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

You just can’t learn from Frenchie, can you. Wears a respirator every day on the job. No pneumonia. Where are all these carpenters, wood workers, factory guys with pneumonia? What, they don’t exist?

You want simple answers because you have a simple brain, but life isn't like that.

If he's working around dust, he's likely safer with the dust mask since "dust pneumonia" is a known problem. If someone is in a city with very bad ozone pollution concentrations, the mask might help them avoid pneumonia and ozone damage to their lungs, as the ozone reacts with the mask material before they inhale it, it might even filter a little bit of the PM2.5. If someone works in a hospital, a mask will help limit their exposure, and then they throw away that mask in a half hour or so and grab a new one.

You seem to assume that since a bunch of surgeons and asbestos workers and carpenters wear masks in contaminated work environments, that you should wear a dirty bandana too as you stroll through the supermarket.

But Frenchie's lack of pneumonia on the job isn't science, that's someone's experience. The actual peer-reviewed science says that self-infection is the single biggest source vector for pneumonia. But please wear a mask if you like. And if you self-infect and end up sick, and then show x-ray negative, insist on a CT scan, before they send you back out into the world with a case of SARS-CoV-2 where you need to recover at home.

Why?

Because even at its worst, the mortality rate from pneumonia in the USA is about 1.5%.

But the mortality rate from untreated pneumonia? It's up to 25%. And a coinfection? Can't help, likely will hurt.

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9 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

And you castigated me the other day over white privilege???  Holy shit beej!!!  Are you saying she wouldn't make the same kind of contacts and connections in a state school?  She might actually see some diversity there and broaden her horizons beyond your lily white sphere.

Every time I hear/read a supposed USA Liberal rail about privilege, I think about the extent they, personally, go to in order to ensure that regardless of the broader principle, *their* offspring will enjoy that same advantage.

And I thank <some being> that I won the genetics lottery by being born in Australia and not the USA. I attended one of Australia's top universities (yes there are only a small handful, it's true) on a merit based scholarship. My parents certainly couldn't afford to pay for me to go.

FKT

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1 hour ago, Jules said:

Two days ago cable news was saying the US would have 60K deaths by August.  On that day the US had seen the largest number of deaths to date (~4K) and the total was approaching 37K.  Earlier today they had that number at more than 41K.  And we're barely half way through April.

Trump has already informed us that 100,000 corpses is the benchmark for a "10 out of 10" job and a perfect response. We may be able to hit that still.

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6 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

Trump has already informed us that 100,000 corpses is the benchmark for a "10 out of 10" job and a perfect response. We may be able to hit that still.

That bar is too high. Lower it to 2.2 million and you’ve got it about right. Tremendous success. Many people are saying it. 

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

You want simple answers because you have a simple brain, but life isn't like that.

If he's working around dust, he's likely safer with the dust mask since "dust pneumonia" is a known problem. If someone is in a city with very bad ozone pollution concentrations, the mask might help them avoid pneumonia and ozone damage to their lungs, as the ozone reacts with the mask material before they inhale it, it might even filter a little bit of the PM2.5. If someone works in a hospital, a mask will help limit their exposure, and then they throw away that mask in a half hour or so and grab a new one.

You seem to assume that since a bunch of surgeons and asbestos workers and carpenters wear masks in contaminated work environments, that you should wear a dirty bandana too as you stroll through the supermarket.

But Frenchie's lack of pneumonia on the job isn't science, that's someone's experience. The actual peer-reviewed science says that self-infection is the single biggest source vector for pneumonia. But please wear a mask if you like. And if you self-infect and end up sick, and then show x-ray negative, insist on a CT scan, before they send you back out into the world with a case of SARS-CoV-2 where you need to recover at home.

Why?

Because even at its worst, the mortality rate from pneumonia in the USA is about 1.5%.

But the mortality rate from untreated pneumonia? It's up to 25%. And a coinfection? Can't help, likely will hurt.

So, you’ve got nothing. Don’t worry, I won’t take any advice from hacks like you. I’ll listen to the folks who actually do this for a living.

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12 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

Trump has already informed us that 100,000 corpses is the benchmark for a "10 out of 10" job and a perfect response. We may be able to hit that still.

We’ll be at 100k in 45 days

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18 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Every time I hear/read a supposed USA Liberal rail about privilege, I think about the extent they, personally, go to in order to ensure that regardless of the broader principle, *their* offspring will enjoy that same advantage.

And I thank <some being> that I won the genetics lottery by being born in Australia and not the USA. I attended one of Australia's top universities (yes there are only a small handful, it's true) on a merit based scholarship. My parents certainly couldn't afford to pay for me to go.

FKT 

 

Same for me, my parents were both teachers, and my older sister was also in a different private college a year ahead of me. This was way out of their reach, and my schooling was paid for by grants from the school, work-study and loans by me, and loans by my parents. I recognize the advantage this provided me too - their willingness to make these sacrifices for their kids.

There are different kinds of privilege out there. Jeff is whining about "White Privilege," a concept he refuses to understand or acknowledge.

 

Certainly, my kids are economically privileged, we could afford to give them opportunities a lot of kids didn't have. We've also raised them to understand this is the case, they know the world does not work the same way for everyone. We've stood behind them and provided support for them to chase their dreams and succeed. We'd not be good parents if we didn't do what we could for our kids (while also fostering independence, we're not helicoptering them).

"White Privilege" is a completely different concept. It's the truism that people are treated differently in some circumstances because of their race, and it gives an unfair and unconscious advantage to people of white race. At least in the U.S. and other nations that were dominated by people of white, European ancestry. I've no doubt you have it in Oz, though it's WRT your aboriginal population.

If you take my son and a 22 year old black man and send them into the same situation - be it a store, a job interview, or behind the wheel of an expensive car - there will likely be differences in treatment for them. The store detectives are way more likely to follow the black kid around, studies have shown that "white sounding" resumes fair far better than ethically names ones, and no one is going to pull a white kid over for driving a Porsche through an affluent, white neighborhood thinking he stole it.

If Brock Turner was black, there is a negligible chance he would have been out of prison in two months.

The best analogy I heard was WRT to gaming.

The rules are the same for everyone. Except some people play the game on "easy," some play it on "hard" and some play it on "Extreme". The hurdles may be the same, but they tend to be easier to cross in a lot of places if you're white. That is white privilege.

 

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46 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:
49 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

We’ll be at 100k in 45 days

Shush, you.

I hate to say this, but it looks very much like it will be a lot sooner.

The math is not good. "slowing down it's increasing" is good but not the same as decreasing. And the rate of increase may not be slowing down after all, the numbers are very fuzzy.

- DSK

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7 minutes ago, chum said:
3 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

....  if renting refrigerated trucks to use as temporary morgues doesn't convince you, then you're probably not worth convincing

 

 

The temporary morgue issue was addressed by a mortician in the video posted by cmilliken upthread. Basically NY was operating at near capacity anyway, were in the middle of a pandemic, and refrigerated trucks are nothing new in the business. 

And I am worth it.

They have 19 refrigerated trailer lined up outside ONE NYC hospital on the news tonight.

I'm sure the mortician had some excellent excuses. It's just the flu, I mean come ON people!!

- DSK

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3 hours ago, mikewof said:

Okay, now to the idea of data resolution, I have no doubt that you are correct and the data that I took from the CDC is filled with errors and needs correction. But what else is new? Anyone who works with data know that there is error, it doesn't mean our hands are tied in looking at it.

Your hands are tied in some ways.  You you can't draw conclusions from data, that are not supported by the data. 

You can't pretend the known limitations, spelled out by the data provider, don't exist. 

You can't, for example, compare the current provisional data, to the historical data, and claim it shows less people are dying than ever before, when the source flat-out tells you the data does not include all deaths, that it's not comparable with final data, and that the count is (not "might be": is) "underestimated relative to final counts". 

You can't pretend it doesn't lag, when they flat-out tell you it lags "1 week to 8 weeks or more".

You also can't just decide that the data is capturing information that it's not designed to capture in the first place. 

And you can't decide the categories mean something they don't.

3 hours ago, mikewof said:

What the CDC data says right now is really compelling, and it's absolutely undeniable.

Only because you insist on pretending it's something it isn't. 

3 hours ago, mikewof said:

So yes, you put your finger on it. A normal day in NYC sees one death every 19 minutes or so, and NYC has been seeing a lot more average deaths. What's going on? That statistic that you and I debated about pneumonia does mean something. 

The NYC Health Department data, suggests that they're not even capturing about a third of the COVID-19 deaths in the first place.  

The local death system  -  everything from the ME's office, to hospital morgues, to undertakers, to Hart's Island  -  is overwhelmed.  People are dying more than 4 times faster than the system's used to handling. 

I just showed you that there's 3,600 likely COVID-19 deaths that haven't even been entered as such.  So the margin of error on NYC cause-of-death stats, right now, is nearly as large as our usual/normal total death rate.  And you want to draw inferences from the data on reported causes of death?!?  Come on.

 

3 hours ago, mikewof said:

The relative lack of pneumonia diagnoses in the CDC data for NYC is so striking that we can't just toss it out as "error" or "incomplete reporting." 

It's completely meaningless in the first place, Mike. 

Consider: there's an unknown number of these co-infections (quite possibly most of them), "hiding"  in a completely different column: under influenza deaths. 

I put "hiding" in quotes, because the CDC is totally upfront about it, you only would bother to read the notes:

Influenza deaths are identified from the ICD–10 codes J09–J11, and include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 listed as a contributing cause of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/ 

 

3 hours ago, mikewof said:

The actual peer-reviewed science says that self-infection is the single biggest source vector for pneumonia.

But it does not say it's from the bacteria breeding in a mask, among those of us who wear them all day (or breathing through a scarf or backlava, for us winter cyclists).  It talks about HIV status, chemotherapy, autoimmune disorders... etc. 

Do burqua-wearing women have higher rates of pneumonia?  

If you look through the OSHA and/or 3M literature on respirator usage... if this was a real danger, wouldn't it at least rate an occasional mention somewhere?  Wouldn't they tell me to disinfect my re-usable mask on occasion, or check my filters for bacterial growth? 

But the actual guidance is just wipe the mask dry after use, let it air out between wearing, soap & water if it gets dirty... no mention of bacteria breeding in the filters or cartridges.  Nada, zilch, zip. 

Not even a "if it smells musty, buy new cartridges"... and I'm going to laugh in your face if you suggest 3M ever passes up an opportunity to tell me I need to replace my filter cartridges. 

That should tell you something.

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2 hours ago, chum said:

The temporary morgue issue was addressed by a mortician in the video posted by cmilliken upthread. Basically NY was operating at near capacity anyway, were in the middle of a pandemic, and refrigerated trucks are nothing new in the business. 

And I am worth it.:lol:

link, save me digging through the whole thread?

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Okay, so as it stands, with no change in guidance from the CDC, a few million children this summer are going to spend a large chunk of that summer behind adorable face masks shaped like a koala nose, or Optimus Prime, or an adorable floral with little teddy bears that Aunt Tilly is now making from her house and selling on NextDoor for only $12/each. I know I've been bitching about the economy, but the Aunt Tillies of this country will bring us back from the bring, small business will find a way to prosper, because unlike big business, small business doesn't get a giant fucking check from Congress, we have to be more nimble, more creative and more precise than big business because we have to wear a lot of hats on one head.

So a few tens of millions of adorable children around the country this summer will spend large chunks of their days breathing into and out of Aunt Tilly's homemade mask, or the ones that Aunt Tilly has made for her at the 150,000 square foot manufacturing facility in China. My concern over the economy, maybe I'm full of shit. My concern over an outbreak of crime from the disenfranchised homeless people, black people, uninsured working class people (once the death toll confirms it is in fact about 70% victims below the poverty line) and all that other stuff, maybe it's a bunch of bullshit, and I'm an idiot because I get things wrong way more often then I get shit right.

But this thing with the self-infection, this has all the ingredients of a lot of really sick children. The SARS-CoV-2 didn't really impact children, thank goodness, it was mostly about knocking off homeless people, people who overstayed their welcome in the nursing home, and those with crap health insurance. So what do law-abiding, half-drunk, taxpaing, letter-writing-voting Americans do here? Our own government is telling us to put Portable Mouth Hole Mounted Bacterial Incubators over the faces of a few tens of milions of children. And we might curse up a blue streak about Trump, but we're not about to obey a direct order from our superior officers in the Virus Wars when they tell us to make sure our kids have just as much of a chance at self-infection as all those other children across the great ocean with an adorable Ned Kelley face shield made at the Aunt Tilly Manufacturing Co. Pty. Ltd..

What do we do? On one hand, this asshole Mike is wrong about everything he writes, so I can just ignore him on this, right? Right? Secretariat! Get your ass back here now! But let's say, just this one time, that asshole might sort of have a point, and say some kid somewhere, self-infects with some of the pneumonia strep from his filthy little mouth and snotted-up nose, and the little girl breathes it in from her Cotton Bacterial Incubator and contracts just a regular old case of bacterial pnemonia. Not a HAP, just a CAP. Just a little old CAP, no big deal. If that happened last year, even with an x-ray negative, the clinician would probably have enough curiosity after the nebulizer treatments didn't help to maybe order a CT scan, or maybe the physician's assistant would get the doctor to take a second look at the chest x-ray and see enough gunk to perscribe the Z-pack. But this year, uh ... it's the year of the Coronavirus, and now we finally have effective test kits, and the Boomers and their hellspawn are afraid of children now. So they test the little kid. Boop! SAR-CoV-2 antibodies, because kids are filthy little ragamuffins that contract every freaking virus on the face of the planet, but they usually are asymptomatic with them, the doctor says "Your kid has the COVID-19." "But, I thought it doesn't hurt children" says the distraught mother. "It usually doesn't" says the well-meaning MD, and the chest x-ray is negative, so therefore your kid's symptoms are obviously COVID-19, and don't mention anything about the CT scan, that asshole MikeWof should have shut his fat piehole about the CT scans, because this a doc-in-the-box, and we're lucky to have the chest x-ray here, let alone a CT. I digress," says the doctor, "but it seems your child has the COVID, and we know that kids are usually safe from it, so take home a little tyke, give him some tea and tell him to fuck off to bed."

And then, in that instant, with this child showing x-ray negative for an everyday CAP that is taking over her lungs, she does not get the antibiotic, because it's THE RISE OF THE SUPERBUG and we don't want to lose Zithromax the way we lost penicillin, and there's a VIRUS WAR going on private, don't you know that antibiotics have no effect on viruses! And then the mother takes home her self-infected kid witht he undetected pneumonia and the next day the kid is even worse, with the bactaria taking over her little lungs like white mold on some bean dip that your teenager left unrefrigerated. So the mom says "fuck this doc-in-the-box shit, this is my kid and she's going the ER." At the ER, the ER physician takes a new round of chest x-rays and says to himself "fuck, this is a bad pneumonia." And then the ER physician says to herself "home or hospital?" She consults with another doctor, they both know the data from all those homeless people who died in those NYC hospitals and they say almost concurrently, in an oddly touching and romatic moment, if not for the Virus Wars raging beyond their doors, "Send her home." These two crazy kids know they will be together after this whole thing is over. "At least that way, the child can avoid the HAP pneumonias that are so hard to treat. We'll give her some good Zithromax and she'll be right as rain."

And then they give the kid the first dose right than, and they rush her out of there, to keep her from catching a dreaded HAP. And the mom takes her home, gives her the Zithromax, and the child feels much better the next day and didn't in fact die. Or, that's what would happen if the child is the child of a taxpaying American with good health insurance. But this is America, so there is a solid chance that the child is Medicaid noncompliant, perhaps homeless along with her homeless parents, living on couches and out of their car, or at home making do in a ghetto that doesn't actually exist in the minds of men like Donald Trump, because they don't go inside the buidlings when they can avoid it. Being a landlord of wealthy people is basically just a lot less stressful than being a landlord of broken Section-8 people. So in about 15% of these stories, that girl goes into an ER in an overstressed, out-of-money public hospital that can't put her on a CT, and might not even take another x-ray if they can use rule out pneumonia with a strep culture. And then they send the little girl home to avoid the nightmare of HAPs inside that hospital, and suddenly, this American child is no longer in America. This child has gone home to conditions that strongly resemble Bangladesh. Perhaps no running water, perhaps shit still in the bucket from the last person who used it. Perhaps the child will fall asleep in the back of a car. Or maybe the kid goes home to a place where they can get neither a lot of sleep nor a lot of food. And then the kid dies from CAP for much the same reason as any other Bangladeshi kid dies of CAP because that's the way it is when we don't have our super-armor of American wealth. People who were living on the edge of safety before this economic lockdown, are now often dangling from the precipice right now.

So say 50 million American children this summer wear their mask for 20 minutes or longer this summer, enough to self-infect. And of those 50 million, 10 percent contract a common case of relatively harmly mouth, throat or nose strep. The normal self-infection rate without the Portable Mouth Hole Bacterial Incubator is 6%, but the bacterial majesty of wearing wet cotton in front of one's own mouth catapults that up to 25%. We're looking at say a million self-infected children. Most of them will not die due to the SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses, but it clearly imacts those of poverty, and homeless. So we're down to about 8% of that population, or about 80,000 children in highly vulnerable positions. Following the NYC results, if 1/4 of those children die, that's about 20,000 children.

Before I really looked at the NYC data with the CDC, I would have thought it was impossible. But if the NYC homeless and uninsured populations are the canaries in the coal mine with this, then 20,000 deaths from self-infected pneumonia with the SAR-CoV-2 flare, seems the kind of nightmare that we need to avoid.

I've worn dirty bandanas over my infected mouth for a vast chunk of my life. And yeah, maybe I never caught more two community acquired pneumonias because of it. They laid me out, they rightly did, I couldn't take more than a few steps without grasping for breath. It sucked, but they were both CAPs, not HAPs. A HAP is the kind of infection where they put a note on the door for visitors. HAPs are the kind of infections that cause internal reviews of "why the fuck are we leading the fucking country in fucking HAPs, let's call that Ashok Gadgil fellow at LBNL and maybe he can help us get this bullshit under control with some new strategies on encapsulated heat pump systems, negative pressure heat-capture ventilation and toss some of that aerogel in the wall cavities while we're at it and pay for this entire life-saving, pathogen-inhibiting heat pump system with the energy savings." Yeah, that's a fucking HAP.

I had CAPs. Not a big deal, maybe it had something to do with the masks, maybe not. But I'm an adult. Adults handle CAPs fairly well with medication. Unless we're old, in which case we'll often die of HAPs, or viral pneumonia, or fungal pneumonia, or aspirated pneumonia. But children, left untreated, will die from a CAP about 25% of the time. It's one of the leading causes of death for children in Developing Nations.

In this case, the danger is of children essentially dying from SARS-CoV-2 in numbers that we have never seen before. We can handle putting old people in the ground, but not children, because the coffins are tiny, and it makes us cry a lot.

So, I have delusions of the CDC changing course at this point. They are recommending Cotton Bacterial Incubators to be shoved in front of the faces of all children. But to anyone who has childen, listen to Old Dr. Mike, and please, don't allow your children to breath through anything that Bitch Aunt Tilly makes, she's banging the neighbor's husband, and Aunt Tilly is kind of nuts. The mask is NOT to protect your child. Know that with every fiber of your being. That mask is to protect the Boomers and their Hellspawn from your children's aersol emissions. Especially if you live in areas with lots of pollen with may allow nucleation centers for penumonia bacteria to grow more quickly than they could without it, please, do not put a cotton mask on your child. Here is what Dr. Mike perscribes for you ... I made it for some hospital that I owe money, but they wanted it for free. So intead of working my fingers to the bone working for free to a company to whom I owe medical debt, you can now use any old 2-liter plastic bottle to make this mask for your children. Air will flow freely, and they will be unlikely to infect the Boomers and their hellspawn.

91465611_bearmask.thumb.jpg.49d38ba42a162730b6f5bb7b69041550.jpg

No sewing machine needed, it can be made with any clear 2-liter bottle, some rubber bands and a little bit of tape.

Everyone is happy! The good people of Sailing Anarchy are happy because they don't need to shitfight with me about my son infecting them in the supermarket. The CDC is happy because we're still mostly following their orders to mask these kids and we're not using essential medical materials to do it, the child's doctor is happy because the child is less likely to infect their little lungs with bacteria since it's harder for bacteria to grow on a piece of FDA-compliant food grade plastic than on a piece of moistened cotton, and the child is happy because he or she has a really cool looking mask that won't murder them.

I'll try to get some time this week to simplify the design and I'll post it on Instructables. Speaking of which, all you sailing degenerates, please do my home ozone test, and if possible, could a few of you do it on your boats? There is a real lack of data of how ozone pollution behaves near the water. https://www.instructables.com/id/1-Home-Ozone-Pollution-Test-Kit-Before-After-Quara/

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3 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

Another good example of White Privilege is Dylan Roof getting taken to Burger King en route to jail after shooting eight people, while 12 year old Tamir Rice is gunned down for playing with a toy gun.

 

Another good advantage of Economic Privilege is seeing a less-than-1% mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 while homeless people and uninsured poor people drop like beheaded sea bass.

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4 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Okay, so as it stands, with no change in guidance from the CDC, a few million children this summer are going to spend a large chunk of that summer behind adorable face masks shaped like a koala nose, or Optimus Prime, or an adorable floral with little teddy bears that Aunt Tilly is now making from her house and selling on NextDoor for only $12/each. I know I've been bitching about the economy, but the Aunt Tillies of this country will bring us back from the bring, small business will find a way to prosper, because unlike big business, small business doesn't get a giant fucking check from Congress, we have to be more nimble, more creative and more precise than big business because we have to wear a lot of hats on one head.

So a few tens of millions of adorable children around the country this summer will spend large chunks of their days breathing into and out of Aunt Tilly's homemade mask, or the ones that Aunt Tilly has made for her at the 150,000 square foot manufacturing facility in China. My concern over the economy, maybe I'm full of shit. My concern over an outbreak of crime from the disenfranchised homeless people, black people, uninsured working class people (once the death toll confirms it is in fact about 70% victims below the poverty line) and all that other stuff, maybe it's a bunch of bullshit, and I'm an idiot because I get things wrong way more often then I get shit right.

But this thing with the self-infection, this has all the ingredients of a lot of really sick children. The SARS-CoV-2 didn't really impact children, thank goodness, it was mostly about knocking off homeless people, people who overstayed their welcome in the nursing home, and those with crap health insurance. So what do law-abiding, half-drunk, taxpaing, letter-writing-voting Americans do here? Our own government is telling us to put Portable Mouth Hole Mounted Bacterial Incubators over the faces of a few tens of milions of children. And we might curse up a blue streak about Trump, but we're not about to obey a direct order from our superior officers in the Virus Wars when they tell us to make sure our kids have just as much of a chance at self-infection as all those other children across the great ocean with an adorable Ned Kelley face shield made at the Aunt Tilly Manufacturing Co. Pty. Ltd..

What do we do? On one hand, this asshole Mike is wrong about everything he writes, so I can just ignore him on this, right? Right? Secretariat! Get your ass back here now! But let's say, just this one time, that asshole might sort of have a point, and say some kid somewhere, self-infects with some of the pneumonia strep from his filthy little mouth and snotted-up nose, and the little girl breathes it in from her Cotton Bacterial Incubator and contracts just a regular old case of bacterial pnemonia. Not a HAP, just a CAP. Just a little old CAP, no big deal. If that happened last year, even with an x-ray negative, the clinician would probably have enough curiosity after the nebulizer treatments didn't help to maybe order a CT scan, or maybe the physician's assistant would get the doctor to take a second look at the chest x-ray and see enough gunk to perscribe the Z-pack. But this year, uh ... it's the year of the Coronavirus, and now we finally have effective test kits, and the Boomers and their hellspawn are afraid of children now. So they test the little kid. Boop! SAR-CoV-2 antibodies, because kids are filthy little ragamuffins that contract every freaking virus on the face of the planet, but they usually are asymptomatic with them, the doctor says "Your kid has the COVID-19." "But, I thought it doesn't hurt children" says the distraught mother. "It usually doesn't" says the well-meaning MD, and the chest x-ray is negative, so therefore your kid's symptoms are obviously COVID-19, and don't mention anything about the CT scan, that asshole MikeWof should have shut his fat piehole about the CT scans, because this a doc-in-the-box, and we're lucky to have the chest x-ray here, let alone a CT. I digress," says the doctor, "but it seems your child has the COVID, and we know that kids are usually safe from it, so take home a little tyke, give him some tea and tell him to fuck off to bed."

And then, in that instant, with this child showing x-ray negative for an everyday CAP that is taking over her lungs, she does not get the antibiotic, because it's THE RISE OF THE SUPERBUG and we don't want to lose Zithromax the way we lost penicillin, and there's a VIRUS WAR going on private, don't you know that antibiotics have no effect on viruses! And then the mother takes home her self-infected kid witht he undetected pneumonia and the next day the kid is even worse, with the bactaria taking over her little lungs like white mold on some bean dip that your teenager left unrefrigerated. So the mom says "fuck this doc-in-the-box shit, this is my kid and she's going the ER." At the ER, the ER physician takes a new round of chest x-rays and says to himself "fuck, this is a bad pneumonia." And then the ER physician says to herself "home or hospital?" She consults with another doctor, they both know the data from all those homeless people who died in those NYC hospitals and they say almost concurrently, in an oddly touching and romatic moment, if not for the Virus Wars raging beyond their doors, "Send her home." These two crazy kids know they will be together after this whole thing is over. "At least that way, the child can avoid the HAP pneumonias that are so hard to treat. We'll give her some good Zithromax and she'll be right as rain."

And then they give the kid the first dose right than, and they rush her out of there, to keep her from catching a dreaded HAP. And the mom takes her home, gives her the Zithromax, and the child feels much better the next day and didn't in fact die. Or, that's what would happen if the child is the child of a taxpaying American with good health insurance. But this is America, so there is a solid chance that the child is Medicaid noncompliant, perhaps homeless along with her homeless parents, living on couches and out of their car, or at home making do in a ghetto that doesn't actually exist in the minds of men like Donald Trump, because they don't go inside the buidlings when they can avoid it. Being a landlord of wealthy people is basically just a lot less stressful than being a landlord of broken Section-8 people. So in about 15% of these stories, that girl goes into an ER in an overstressed, out-of-money public hospital that can't put her on a CT, and might not even take another x-ray if they can use rule out pneumonia with a strep culture. And then they send the little girl home to avoid the nightmare of HAPs inside that hospital, and suddenly, this American child is no longer in America. This child has gone home to conditions that strongly resemble Bangladesh. Perhaps no running water, perhaps shit still in the bucket from the last person who used it. Perhaps the child will fall asleep in the back of a car. Or maybe the kid goes home to a place where they can get neither a lot of sleep nor a lot of food. And then the kid dies from CAP for much the same reason as any other Bangladeshi kid dies of CAP because that's the way it is when we don't have our super-armor of American wealth. People who were living on the edge of safety before this economic lockdown, are now often dangling from the precipice right now.

So say 50 million American children this summer wear their mask for 20 minutes or longer this summer, enough to self-infect. And of those 50 million, 10 percent contract a common case of relatively harmly mouth, throat or nose strep. The normal self-infection rate without the Portable Mouth Hole Bacterial Incubator is 6%, but the bacterial majesty of wearing wet cotton in front of one's own mouth catapults that up to 25%. We're looking at say a million self-infected children. Most of them will not die due to the SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses, but it clearly imacts those of poverty, and homeless. So we're down to about 8% of that population, or about 80,000 children in highly vulnerable positions. Following the NYC results, if 1/4 of those children die, that's about 20,000 children.

Before I really looked at the NYC data with the CDC, I would have thought it was impossible. But if the NYC homeless and uninsured populations are the canaries in the coal mine with this, then 20,000 deaths from self-infected pneumonia with the SAR-CoV-2 flare, seems the kind of nightmare that we need to avoid.

I've worn dirty bandanas over my infected mouth for a vast chunk of my life. And yeah, maybe I never caught more two community acquired pneumonias because of it. They laid me out, they rightly did, I couldn't take more than a few steps without grasping for breath. It sucked, but they were both CAPs, not HAPs. A HAP is the kind of infection where they put a note on the door for visitors. HAPs are the kind of infections that cause internal reviews of "why the fuck are we leading the fucking country in fucking HAPs, let's call that Ashok Gadgil fellow at LBNL and maybe he can help us get this bullshit under control with some new strategies on encapsulated heat pump systems, negative pressure heat-capture ventilation and toss some of that aerogel in the wall cavities while we're at it and pay for this entire life-saving, pathogen-inhibiting heat pump system with the energy savings." Yeah, that's a fucking HAP.

I had CAPs. Not a big deal, maybe it had something to do with the masks, maybe not. But I'm an adult. Adults handle CAPs fairly well with medication. Unless we're old, in which case we'll often die of HAPs, or viral pneumonia, or fungal pneumonia, or aspirated pneumonia. But children, left untreated, will die from a CAP about 25% of the time. It's one of the leading causes of death for children in Developing Nations.

In this case, the danger is of children essentially dying from SARS-CoV-2 in numbers that we have never seen before. We can handle putting old people in the ground, but not children, because the coffins are tiny, and it makes us cry a lot.

So, I have delusions of the CDC changing course at this point. They are recommending Cotton Bacterial Incubators to be shoved in front of the faces of all children. But to anyone who has childen, listen to Old Dr. Mike, and please, don't allow your children to breath through anything that Bitch Aunt Tilly makes, she's banging the neighbor's husband, and Aunt Tilly is kind of nuts. The mask is NOT to protect your child. Know that with every fiber of your being. That mask is to protect the Boomers and their Hellspawn from your children's aersol emissions. Especially if you live in areas with lots of pollen with may allow nucleation centers for penumonia bacteria to grow more quickly than they could without it, please, do not put a cotton mask on your child. Here is what Dr. Mike perscribes for you ... I made it for some hospital that I owe money, but they wanted it for free. So intead of working my fingers to the bone working for free to a company to whom I owe medical debt, you can now use any old 2-liter plastic bottle to make this mask for your children. Air will flow freely, and they will be unlikely to infect the Boomers and their hellspawn.

91465611_bearmask.thumb.jpg.49d38ba42a162730b6f5bb7b69041550.jpg

No sewing machine needed, it can be made with any clear 2-liter bottle, some rubber bands and a little bit of tape.

Everyone is happy! The good people of Sailing Anarchy are happy because they don't need to shitfight with me about my son infecting them in the supermarket. The CDC is happy because we're still mostly following their orders to mask these kids and we're not using essential medical materials to do it, the child's doctor is happy because the child is less likely to infect their little lungs with bacteria since it's harder for bacteria to grow on a piece of FDA-compliant food grade plastic than on a piece of moistened cotton, and the child is happy because he or she has a really cool looking mask that won't murder them.

I'll try to get some time this week to simplify the design and I'll post it on Instructables. Speaking of which, all you sailing fuckers, please do my home ozone test. https://www.instructables.com/id/1-Home-Ozone-Pollution-Test-Kit-Before-After-Quara/

Holy shit.  Do you think anybody reads your wall of text bullshit?   

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40 minutes ago, frenchie said:

Your hands are tied in some ways.  You you can't draw conclusions from data, that are not supported by the data. 

You can't pretend the known limitations, spelled out by the data provider, don't exist. 

You can't, for example, compare the current provisional data, to the historical data, and claim it shows less people are dying than ever before, when the source flat-out tells you the data does not include all deaths, that it's not comparable with final data, and that the count is (not "might be": is) "underestimated relative to final counts". 

You can't pretend it doesn't lag, when they flat-out tell you it lags "1 week to 8 weeks or more".

You also can't just decide that the data is capturing information that it's not designed to capture in the first place. 

And you can't decide the categories mean something they don't.

Only because you insist on pretending it's something it isn't. 

The NYC Health Department data, suggests that they're not even capturing about a third of the COVID-19 deaths in the first place.  

The local death system  -  everything from the ME's office, to hospital morgues, to undertakers, to Hart's Island  -  is overwhelmed.  People are dying more than 4 times faster than the system's used to handling. 

I just showed you that there's 3,600 likely COVID-19 deaths that haven't even been entered as such.  So the margin of error on NYC cause-of-death stats, right now, is nearly as large as our usual/normal total death rate.  And you want to draw inferences from the data on reported causes of death?!?  Come on.

 

It's completely meaningless in the first place, Mike. 

Consider: there's an unknown number of these co-infections (quite possibly most of them), "hiding"  in a completely different column: under influenza deaths. 

I put "hiding" in quotes, because the CDC is totally upfront about it, you only would bother to read the notes:

Influenza deaths are identified from the ICD–10 codes J09–J11, and include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 listed as a contributing cause of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/ 

 

But it does not say it's from the bacteria breeding in a mask, among those of us who wear them all day (or breathing through a scarf or backlava, for us winter cyclists).  It talks about HIV status, chemotherapy, autoimmune disorders... etc. 

Do burqua-wearing women have higher rates of pneumonia?  

If you look through the OSHA and/or 3M literature on respirator usage... if this was a real danger, wouldn't it at least rate an occasional mention somewhere?  Wouldn't they tell me to disinfect my re-usable mask on occasion, or check my filters for bacterial growth? 

But the actual guidance is just wipe the mask dry after use, let it air out between wearing, soap & water if it gets dirty... no mention of bacteria breeding in the filters or cartridges.  Nada, zilch, zip. 

Not even a "if it smells musty, buy new cartridges"... and I'm going to laugh in your face if you suggest 3M ever passes up an opportunity to tell me I need to replace my filter cartridges. 

That should tell you something.

 

Scientists don't "draw conclusions" from data. We look at data and draw hypotheses. And then we test the shit out the hypothesis with a mix of theory, application and experiment. And then we draw a conclusion from the results.

All of these these things your writing about the lack of fidelity in the data may or may not be true. But it doesn't matter. Ariadne gave us more than enough string to find our way through this minotaur maze. In my opinion there is more than enough fidelity of existing data to ask some questions and make some suggestions. And the ratio of SARS-CoV-2 deaths to pneumonia testing is so far off the scale in NYC that not acting on this would be a horrible mistake in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Blue Crab said:

I just read all 100 of page 11 posts to catch up. I don't see how Mikey does it. He wore me out.

6 weeks ago Mikey was betting the # dead wouldn’t hit 100 by a certain Friday. he was so happy he won that bet

then. Coronavirus never kills, it’s something else, (implying the Drs are stupid)

then, ok, it kills, but it’s not the virus, it’s a bacteria(that isn’t showing up anywhere), so all we need to do is dose every homeless person with antibiotics. Why not everyone, it’s hard to say

mixed in there was incredulity on his part that the data could POSSIBLY be incomplete, even though public health agencies said it was

And on and on. Now he’s saying we’re all gonna die from wearing bandanas

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1 minute ago, Raz'r said:

6 weeks ago Mikey was betting the # dead wouldn’t hit 100 by a certain Friday. he was so happy he won that bet

then. Coronavirus never kills, it’s something else, (implying the Drs are stupid)

then, ok, it kills, but it’s not the virus, it’s a bacteria(that isn’t showing up anywhere), so all we need to do is dose every homeless person with antibiotics. Why not everyone, it’s hard to say

mixed in there was incredulity on his part that the data could POSSIBLY be incomplete, even though public health agencies said it was

And on and on. Now he’s saying we’re all gonna die from wearing bandanas

I never wear bandanas because if one slips off my head I will slip on it.

Oh, bandanas. The green ones aren't very sweet. Oh, bandanas.

Yeah, that's me.

P4055585249937_1.jpg

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8 hours ago, mikewof said:

Yes.

Self-infection is the single biggest pathway. Start here with the American Thoracic Society ... https://www.thoracic.org/patients/patient-resources/breathing-in-america/resources/breathing-in-america.pdf

Pneumonia can be transmitted when airborne microbes from an infected indi-vidual are inhaled by someone else. However, most instances of pneumonia are attributable to self-infection with one or more types of microbes that originate in the nose and mouth. In healthy people, typical upper airway bacterial residents such as Streptococcus pneumoniae (commonly referred to as “pneumococcus”) and Hemophilus infl uenzae are the most common bacteria causing community-acquired pneumonia. Hospital-acquired pneumonia is usually caused by more resistant bacteria, such as Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Escherichia coli. Individuals with a serious impairment of their immune system become susceptible to pneumonia caused by so-called “opportunistic” microbes, such as certain fungi, viruses, and bacte-ria related to tuberculosis (mycobacteria), that would not ordinarily cause dis-ease in normal individuals (

Paper mask? Cotton mask? Which makes a good incubation surface? If you're genuinely interested in this as a threat, I'm happy to look up clinical evidence of self-infection with you, but you're smart and can find a lot of that on your own. I sent an email to the author of a journal article on self-infection, and I'll let you know what he says.

I don't know how the CDC is going to reverse their mask advisory, but I hope they do. I've seen a lot of children in supermarkets with spit-soaked, sneeze-soaked masks, stewing in their own juices, can't be good.

The answer to my question seems to be "no".  

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9 minutes ago, Mark K said:

The answer to my question seems to be "no".  

I'm not in the mood for a Sailing Anarchy version of sending me on a mission to find halftone dots. If you want to look it up, look it up. I'm not stopping you, and you're sufficiently intelligent to make up your own mind.

I gave you a fully peer-reviewed journal article that says self-infection is the single biggest vector for pneumonia. If there was a similar outbreak to SARS-CoV-2 that had a sufficiently large sample size, I might be able to look at the aftermath and see if there was a post-crisis bump in pneumonia infections in children due to wearing those masks. I thought that the 2004 outbreak could do it, but that was in Asia, where they are apparently less concerned with the fear of overusing antibiotics to avoid superbugs.

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23 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

6 weeks ago Mikey was betting the # dead wouldn’t hit 100 by a certain Friday. he was so happy he won that bet

then. Coronavirus never kills, it’s something else, (implying the Drs are stupid)

then, ok, it kills, but it’s not the virus, it’s a bacteria(that isn’t showing up anywhere), so all we need to do is dose every homeless person with antibiotics. Why not everyone, it’s hard to say

mixed in there was incredulity on his part that the data could POSSIBLY be incomplete, even though public health agencies said it was

And on and on. Now he’s saying we’re all gonna die from wearing bandanas

You're boring me.

You're going to have to step up your annoyance game if you really want to grab my attention.

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2 minutes ago, mikewof said:

You're boring me.

You're going to have to step up your annoyance game if you really want to grab my attention.

I wasn’t writing to you. What would the point be in that?

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

In my opinion there is more than enough fidelity of existing data to ask some questions and make some suggestions. And the ratio of SARS-CoV-2 deaths to pneumonia testing is so far off the scale in NYC that not acting on this would be a horrible mistake in my opinion.

I will take the CDC's explicit statements about the data over your opinion, Mike. Especially when it's fucking obvious that your opinion was formed without reading what the CDC says about the data.  When it's obvious that you're just being too bullheaded to actually read, and actually think about, what the CDC says about the data:

Pneumonia and influenza deaths are included to provide context for understanding the completeness of COVID-19 mortality data and related trends. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Thus, increases in pneumonia or influenza deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality. Additionally, estimates of completeness for influenza or pneumonia deaths may provide context for understanding the lag in reporting for COVID-19 deaths, as it is anticipated that these causes would have similar delays in reporting, processing, and coding. 

 

would you please, please, please, actually read that, this time?  I'm fuckin beggin you. 

then read it again, slowly. 

SOME of the deaths classified as pneumonia may be from both co-infection.  But that is not why the CDC publishes them.  They publish them because deaths in one category may belong in one of the others.  They publish pneumonia deaths because if those suddenly & inexplicably jump, researchers will realize some of them are COVID-19 deaths.  

Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths

Again:

Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths

They're flat-out telling you that the data isn't suitable for comparing one column to another.  That's simply not a use for which the data is intended.  

Just like they told you not to compare the provisional data to final data from previous years.

 

Further, the deaths are not separated the way you keep insisting you think they are.  Some co-infections won't be in either of the columns you're comparing.  They'll be in the influenza column.  The CDC tells you that, too:

Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.

This isn't about my opinion or your opinion. 

It's about what the source of the data is saying about the data. 


 

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5 hours ago, frenchie said:

link, save me digging through the whole thread?

I'd recommend her videos on a number of topics involving death and the deceased.  Relative to NYC, the mortician business is essentially a cartel because of land issues.  They run at near capacity all the time and have no surge capacity, ever.

 

 

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Is reusing PPE a good idea?  No - generally it's not a good idea. 

Is reusing disposable masks a good idea?  No - it's generally not a good idea.  Masks can accumulate gunk, become less effective as they wear out, and, over time, they do become reservoirs for infection and re-infection.

Why do people throw away toothbrushes after being sick?  Fear of cross infection and reinfection.  Are you guaranteed to be re-infected if you DON'T throw away your toothbrush?  No.  In fact, most of the evidence - what little there is - says that the risk is low.  Between the soap from the toothpaste and the fact that most people don't brush constantly, the brush usually dries out and most of bacteria die.  So why the recommendation to throw away the toothbrushes?  Because they're cheep and readily available and its a small issue as part of a pretty rare event for most people that might help and won't hurt. 

Why did the CDC initially recommend against masks?  Social engineering.  Health care providers, who are a vast minority of the population but who use the vast majority of medical PPE, needed the limited supply to deal with a potential crisis.  They couldn't hope to compete with the 'general public' swarming to buy masks so the only answer was to tap down expectations.

in a world of 7 billion people and an incidence of 100,000 potential cases, the odds of a 'normal person' being either sick or coming into contact with someone at that time that was sick was very small.  The odds of a health care working coming into contact with someone who was sick at that time was very high because, the sick people were coming to hospitals.  Limited supply, high risk to skilled professionals that are hard to replace = Mask Rationing.  How do you do that in a free market?  Tell people an 'alternative fact' - they don't need masks.  Compared to health care workers, the DON'T.  The incidence of infection is low and frankly, you're more disposable than a doctor at that point.  Recommendation:  Don't wear a mask.

Advance 8 weeks.  Some new facts become evident.  1)  The Diamond Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess indicated that the vast majority of cases - 410 out of 696 - were asymptomatic.  In other words, in the general population, the vast number of cases - almost 60% - didn't have an obvious reason to realize they were sick.  The 'communicability' factor of COVID is over 10 for sure.  That puts it in the super contagious category with things like measles/chickenpox.  In a world of 2 million diagnosed cases, that means that there's AT LEAST 3 million carriers wandering around with a super-contagious virus that didn't know they were sick and had no reason to believe they were a threat to themselves or anyone else.  So now we have a new fact.  More testing in places like California have indicated that even that estimate is probably low - in areas where 'outbreaks' occur, the actual infected group may be more like 20x, not 2x of the diagnosed group.

Is reusing PPE a good idea?  No - it's still not a good idea. 

Is having asymptomatic carriers of a highly contagious and - as of now, largely untreatable disease - wandering around in the population without any special mitigation a good idea?  No - that's not a good idea.

Is the PPE availability issue still a critical problem?  No, not critical - serious - but not critical.

Can I treat people if they get infection from re wearing a contaminated mask?  Probably.  Can I treat a mass outbreak of COVID?  Nope - still cant.

New Recommendation:  Recommendation:  Wear the masks.

Welcome to the world of statistics and global health care - where the "king of less bad" reigns supreme.  Mikey is right in that a mass prescription for everyone to wear masks will probably lead to an increase in infections because of the masks. Is that risk worth it?  The CDC is betting yes.  As a practical matter, if it DOESN'T lead to an increase, then there's probably some cost savings that can be realized by mandating reuse of PPE.

 

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2 hours ago, cmilliken said:

I'd recommend her videos on a number of topics involving death and the deceased.  Relative to NYC, the mortician business is essentially a cartel because of land issues.  They run at near capacity all the time and have no surge capacity, ever.

 

 

Same reason why the USA has the least hospital capacity per capita (despite our 2X+ health care spending).

Unused capacity costs money. If you can handle a surge, and that ability goes idle much of the time, your profit is diminished. You're leaving money on the table.

- DSK

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8 hours ago, mikewof said:

Okay, so as it stands, with no change in guidance from the CDC, a few million children this summer are going to spend a large chunk of that summer behind adorable face masks shaped like a koala nose, or Optimus Prime, or an adorable floral with little teddy bears that Aunt Tilly is now making from her house and selling on NextDoor for only $12/each. I know I've been bitching about the economy, but the Aunt Tillies of this country will bring us back from the bring, small business will find a way to prosper, because unlike big business, small business doesn't get a giant fucking check from Congress, we have to be more nimble, more creative and more precise than big business because we have to wear a lot of hats on one head.

So a few tens of millions of adorable children around the country this summer will spend large chunks of their days breathing into and out of Aunt Tilly's homemade mask, or the ones that Aunt Tilly has made for her at the 150,000 square foot manufacturing facility in China. My concern over the economy, maybe I'm full of shit. My concern over an outbreak of crime from the disenfranchised homeless people, black people, uninsured working class people (once the death toll confirms it is in fact about 70% victims below the poverty line) and all that other stuff, maybe it's a bunch of bullshit, and I'm an idiot because I get things wrong way more often then I get shit right.

But this thing with the self-infection, this has all the ingredients of a lot of really sick children. The SARS-CoV-2 didn't really impact children, thank goodness, it was mostly about knocking off homeless people, people who overstayed their welcome in the nursing home, and those with crap health insurance. So what do law-abiding, half-drunk, taxpaing, letter-writing-voting Americans do here? Our own government is telling us to put Portable Mouth Hole Mounted Bacterial Incubators over the faces of a few tens of milions of children. And we might curse up a blue streak about Trump, but we're not about to obey a direct order from our superior officers in the Virus Wars when they tell us to make sure our kids have just as much of a chance at self-infection as all those other children across the great ocean with an adorable Ned Kelley face shield made at the Aunt Tilly Manufacturing Co. Pty. Ltd..

What do we do? On one hand, this asshole Mike is wrong about everything he writes, so I can just ignore him on this, right? Right? Secretariat! Get your ass back here now! But let's say, just this one time, that asshole might sort of have a point, and say some kid somewhere, self-infects with some of the pneumonia strep from his filthy little mouth and snotted-up nose, and the little girl breathes it in from her Cotton Bacterial Incubator and contracts just a regular old case of bacterial pnemonia. Not a HAP, just a CAP. Just a little old CAP, no big deal. If that happened last year, even with an x-ray negative, the clinician would probably have enough curiosity after the nebulizer treatments didn't help to maybe order a CT scan, or maybe the physician's assistant would get the doctor to take a second look at the chest x-ray and see enough gunk to perscribe the Z-pack. But this year, uh ... it's the year of the Coronavirus, and now we finally have effective test kits, and the Boomers and their hellspawn are afraid of children now. So they test the little kid. Boop! SAR-CoV-2 antibodies, because kids are filthy little ragamuffins that contract every freaking virus on the face of the planet, but they usually are asymptomatic with them, the doctor says "Your kid has the COVID-19." "But, I thought it doesn't hurt children" says the distraught mother. "It usually doesn't" says the well-meaning MD, and the chest x-ray is negative, so therefore your kid's symptoms are obviously COVID-19, and don't mention anything about the CT scan, that asshole MikeWof should have shut his fat piehole about the CT scans, because this a doc-in-the-box, and we're lucky to have the chest x-ray here, let alone a CT. I digress," says the doctor, "but it seems your child has the COVID, and we know that kids are usually safe from it, so take home a little tyke, give him some tea and tell him to fuck off to bed."

And then, in that instant, with this child showing x-ray negative for an everyday CAP that is taking over her lungs, she does not get the antibiotic, because it's THE RISE OF THE SUPERBUG and we don't want to lose Zithromax the way we lost penicillin, and there's a VIRUS WAR going on private, don't you know that antibiotics have no effect on viruses! And then the mother takes home her self-infected kid witht he undetected pneumonia and the next day the kid is even worse, with the bactaria taking over her little lungs like white mold on some bean dip that your teenager left unrefrigerated. So the mom says "fuck this doc-in-the-box shit, this is my kid and she's going the ER." At the ER, the ER physician takes a new round of chest x-rays and says to himself "fuck, this is a bad pneumonia." And then the ER physician says to herself "home or hospital?" She consults with another doctor, they both know the data from all those homeless people who died in those NYC hospitals and they say almost concurrently, in an oddly touching and romatic moment, if not for the Virus Wars raging beyond their doors, "Send her home." These two crazy kids know they will be together after this whole thing is over. "At least that way, the child can avoid the HAP pneumonias that are so hard to treat. We'll give her some good Zithromax and she'll be right as rain."

And then they give the kid the first dose right than, and they rush her out of there, to keep her from catching a dreaded HAP. And the mom takes her home, gives her the Zithromax, and the child feels much better the next day and didn't in fact die. Or, that's what would happen if the child is the child of a taxpaying American with good health insurance. But this is America, so there is a solid chance that the child is Medicaid noncompliant, perhaps homeless along with her homeless parents, living on couches and out of their car, or at home making do in a ghetto that doesn't actually exist in the minds of men like Donald Trump, because they don't go inside the buidlings when they can avoid it. Being a landlord of wealthy people is basically just a lot less stressful than being a landlord of broken Section-8 people. So in about 15% of these stories, that girl goes into an ER in an overstressed, out-of-money public hospital that can't put her on a CT, and might not even take another x-ray if they can use rule out pneumonia with a strep culture. And then they send the little girl home to avoid the nightmare of HAPs inside that hospital, and suddenly, this American child is no longer in America. This child has gone home to conditions that strongly resemble Bangladesh. Perhaps no running water, perhaps shit still in the bucket from the last person who used it. Perhaps the child will fall asleep in the back of a car. Or maybe the kid goes home to a place where they can get neither a lot of sleep nor a lot of food. And then the kid dies from CAP for much the same reason as any other Bangladeshi kid dies of CAP because that's the way it is when we don't have our super-armor of American wealth. People who were living on the edge of safety before this economic lockdown, are now often dangling from the precipice right now.

So say 50 million American children this summer wear their mask for 20 minutes or longer this summer, enough to self-infect. And of those 50 million, 10 percent contract a common case of relatively harmly mouth, throat or nose strep. The normal self-infection rate without the Portable Mouth Hole Bacterial Incubator is 6%, but the bacterial majesty of wearing wet cotton in front of one's own mouth catapults that up to 25%. We're looking at say a million self-infected children. Most of them will not die due to the SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses, but it clearly imacts those of poverty, and homeless. So we're down to about 8% of that population, or about 80,000 children in highly vulnerable positions. Following the NYC results, if 1/4 of those children die, that's about 20,000 children.

Before I really looked at the NYC data with the CDC, I would have thought it was impossible. But if the NYC homeless and uninsured populations are the canaries in the coal mine with this, then 20,000 deaths from self-infected pneumonia with the SAR-CoV-2 flare, seems the kind of nightmare that we need to avoid.

I've worn dirty bandanas over my infected mouth for a vast chunk of my life. And yeah, maybe I never caught more two community acquired pneumonias because of it. They laid me out, they rightly did, I couldn't take more than a few steps without grasping for breath. It sucked, but they were both CAPs, not HAPs. A HAP is the kind of infection where they put a note on the door for visitors. HAPs are the kind of infections that cause internal reviews of "why the fuck are we leading the fucking country in fucking HAPs, let's call that Ashok Gadgil fellow at LBNL and maybe he can help us get this bullshit under control with some new strategies on encapsulated heat pump systems, negative pressure heat-capture ventilation and toss some of that aerogel in the wall cavities while we're at it and pay for this entire life-saving, pathogen-inhibiting heat pump system with the energy savings." Yeah, that's a fucking HAP.

I had CAPs. Not a big deal, maybe it had something to do with the masks, maybe not. But I'm an adult. Adults handle CAPs fairly well with medication. Unless we're old, in which case we'll often die of HAPs, or viral pneumonia, or fungal pneumonia, or aspirated pneumonia. But children, left untreated, will die from a CAP about 25% of the time. It's one of the leading causes of death for children in Developing Nations.

In this case, the danger is of children essentially dying from SARS-CoV-2 in numbers that we have never seen before. We can handle putting old people in the ground, but not children, because the coffins are tiny, and it makes us cry a lot.

So, I have delusions of the CDC changing course at this point. They are recommending Cotton Bacterial Incubators to be shoved in front of the faces of all children. But to anyone who has childen, listen to Old Dr. Mike, and please, don't allow your children to breath through anything that Bitch Aunt Tilly makes, she's banging the neighbor's husband, and Aunt Tilly is kind of nuts. The mask is NOT to protect your child. Know that with every fiber of your being. That mask is to protect the Boomers and their Hellspawn from your children's aersol emissions. Especially if you live in areas with lots of pollen with may allow nucleation centers for penumonia bacteria to grow more quickly than they could without it, please, do not put a cotton mask on your child. Here is what Dr. Mike perscribes for you ... I made it for some hospital that I owe money, but they wanted it for free. So intead of working my fingers to the bone working for free to a company to whom I owe medical debt, you can now use any old 2-liter plastic bottle to make this mask for your children. Air will flow freely, and they will be unlikely to infect the Boomers and their hellspawn.

91465611_bearmask.thumb.jpg.49d38ba42a162730b6f5bb7b69041550.jpg

No sewing machine needed, it can be made with any clear 2-liter bottle, some rubber bands and a little bit of tape.

Everyone is happy! The good people of Sailing Anarchy are happy because they don't need to shitfight with me about my son infecting them in the supermarket. The CDC is happy because we're still mostly following their orders to mask these kids and we're not using essential medical materials to do it, the child's doctor is happy because the child is less likely to infect their little lungs with bacteria since it's harder for bacteria to grow on a piece of FDA-compliant food grade plastic than on a piece of moistened cotton, and the child is happy because he or she has a really cool looking mask that won't murder them.

I'll try to get some time this week to simplify the design and I'll post it on Instructables. Speaking of which, all you sailing degenerates, please do my home ozone test, and if possible, could a few of you do it on your boats? There is a real lack of data of how ozone pollution behaves near the water. https://www.instructables.com/id/1-Home-Ozone-Pollution-Test-Kit-Before-After-Quara/

Day one of new leaf: I didn't read this Mike!

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7 hours ago, mikewof said:

I gave you a fully peer-reviewed journal article that says self-infection is the single biggest vector for pneumonia. If there was a similar outbreak to SARS-CoV-2 that had a sufficiently large sample size, I might be able to look at the aftermath and see if there was a post-crisis bump in pneumonia infections in children due to wearing those masks. I thought that the 2004 outbreak could do it, but that was in Asia, where they are apparently less concerned with the fear of overusing antibiotics to avoid superbugs.

Mike, I've stated ad neuseum that I agree with your questioning.

But you need to accept the answer even if it doesn't agree with your preconception! Good questions, well asked, and now well answered. I've stopped posting because Frenchie is covering most of it, and has more patience than me.

But one small point on the self infections / co infections you keep banging on about. 

YES - we all have streplecoccus bacteria on us all the time. (plus yucky stuff like e. coli, but lets just focus on strep)

YES - Strep is present and part of a lot of pneumonia.

No - that Strep wasn't the root cause of the pneumonia. What actually happens is

 - Person catches random bug, lets just say influenza, but equally covid 19.

 - random bug beats the person up, their immune system is compromised

 - Strep bacteria (plus anything else that's floating around) goes nuts without the normal immune system to kick it's arse.

 - Person gets properly sick with pneumonia as a symptom

 - Medical type person tests patient and finds a bunch of influenza, and a bunch of strep in the gunk in the lungs that is preventing the person breathing properly.

 - Diagnosis is pneumonia, with a influenza and streplococcus (No, I can't spell it properly) infection.

So... as for your crusade against face masks. If you are otherwise healthy, they won't hurt, and might stop an asymptomatic covid 19 carrier passing it on. If you are sick, stay the fuck at home, and don't breath through a bacteria laden cess pool.

Happy?

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41 minutes ago, Se7en said:
8 hours ago, mikewof said:

...    ...

....    ...

So... as for your crusade against face masks. If you are otherwise healthy, they won't hurt, and might stop an asymptomatic covid 19 carrier passing it on. If you are sick, stay the fuck at home, and don't breath through a bacteria laden cess pool.

 

B-b-but what about TB? What about staff? There are pathogens just SWIMMING in the air and soil around us!

This is why we must build space colonies, and get every man, woman, and child, off the surface of this dirty-ass planet. It's INFESTED with goddam germs!!

Mike likes to ask questions but he doesn't like anybody else's answer. The answer that wearing face masks doesn't seem to be a health threat, judging by hundreds of millions of test cases where people -with- masks had better outcomes than those without.... well, that just because of unreliable data. Nutball time-waster

- DSK

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20 hours ago, mikewof said:

Minimize?

I've actually studied the peer-reviewed papers, pulled CDC data, analyzed that data, talked with lots of people working in the area. What the fuck have you done other than bitch like a whipped kitten? You would presumably see it as "BS" because you've made no effort to educate yourself on this.

The connection of this virus to pneumonia is now essentially undeniable, and the CDC data points to that connection like a giant "You Are Here" arrow.

If you're not in fact as lazy as it seems, then I'm happy to walk you through the process of downloading the CDC data, putting it into Excel and looking at it.

Mike, you must be new to the world of publishing.  Peer-reviewed is only as good as your peers and their knowledge, and their motivation and attention to detail.  It's a filter and nothing else to get rid of bullshit papers.  But not much more.  Don't hold it up as meaning a paper is credible, there's no guarantee whatsoever.  

Do you ever just shut the fuck up?  Do you ever consider the possibility that someone else knows more than you do?  Apparently not.  

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20 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Same as for 200 years.  Rich kids doing rich kid shit. The level of instruction has precisely nothing to do with the value of ivy league schools.  

 

Seems very "white privilegy".  I guess that's bad, sometimes.  

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19 hours ago, Mark K said:

So we are infected with bacteria that come from ourselves?? Can you provide a case where someone got infected in that way from their own paper mask? 

NOOOOOOO!!!  Dude, you just had to go there....  :huh:

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17 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

My wife just shared a text from one of her friends.... "Saying that we have flattened the curve and now we can lift restrictions is like saying that the parachute has slowed our descent and now we can take it off."

- DSK

But that's the whole fracking point about "flattening the curve"!  Its not to prevent all future infections, that's impossible and foolish to think it's so.  FTC is to allow the medical system to catchup and cope with the infection rate.  If the medical system can cope with some restrictions relaxed, then FTC worked.  Otherwise, we will be in indefinite lockdown.  That's not the point.  

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15 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

There are different kinds of privilege out there. Jeff is whining about "White Privilege," a concept he refuses to understand or acknowledge.

 

Certainly, my kids are economically privileged, we could afford to give them opportunities a lot of kids didn't have. We've also raised them to understand this is the case, they know the world does not work the same way for everyone. We've stood behind them and provided support for them to chase their dreams and succeed. We'd not be good parents if we didn't do what we could for our kids (while also fostering independence, we're not helicoptering them).

I understand the concept just fine, BJ.  Your kids are "economically" privileged because they are white and their parents are well off because you are white.  That is the same "white privilege" that you constantly rail on about here.  You and your wife got the opportunities you got because you were white.  How many of your "black friends" bought a 54' sailboat and cruised 1/2 way around the world?  

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11 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

Holy shit.  Do you think anybody reads your wall of text bullshit?   

No, so stop fucking quoting his entire walls of text.  You're wearing out my fingers having to swipe past all this shit.

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3 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Same reason why the USA has the least hospital capacity per capita (despite our 2X+ health care spending).

Unused capacity costs money. If you can handle a surge, and that ability goes idle much of the time, your profit is diminished. You're leaving money on the table.

- DSK

Things I learned during the GLOBAL PANDEMIC.   

In a nation of +/- 308 million people, we only have 1,000,000 hospital beds 

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1 hour ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Errr, mr “let’s get the economy going again” the lack of PPE available to the rest of us, and necessary or advisable for tasks that needed it before c19, is a critical problem to getting that economy thing going again. We need boat chandlers to have masks & gloves in stock again for things to be “normal”

i was able to gain 3 n95 masks yesterday....from  the boat shed...they were in a box and are about 2 years old (unopened box)  they are now golden

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4 hours ago, Bus Driver said:
5 hours ago, Mid said:
5 hours ago, cmilliken said:

Is reusing PPE a good idea?

NO

Makes as much sense as using the same condom.

It's better than the alternative when new unused condoms (or PPE) are not available.

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7 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

You and your wife got the opportunities you got because you were white.  How many of your "black friends" bought a 54' sailboat and cruised 1/2 way around the world?  

Jeff, you are an ass.  Brown is not easy to get into and at least BJ did not come from a ton of money.  I assume they each worked their asses off and earned their opportunities.  Beats putting ignorant monkeys in jets.  

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10 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

No, so stop fucking quoting his entire walls of text.  You're wearing out my fingers having to swipe past all this shit.

Stop complaining

Think of all the fun you can have when your fingerprints are worn off

- DSK

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11 minutes ago, dacapo said:

Things I learned during the GLOBAL PANDEMIC.   

In a nation of +/- 308 million people, we only have 1,000,000 hospital beds 

Assuming you live to 80, you have 4160 weeks on earth.  How many do you expect to spend in a hospital bed?

3 days at birth, 3 days for the bad tequila, a couple weeks to recover from knee/hip surgery, three weeks at the end of life?  SWAG here obviously.`

6 weeks / 4160 is ~ 700. 

350 million people gives you a 2x margin for error.  So up to 12 weeks / person in a hospital bed over their lifetime.

Yea, 350 million people, 1 million beds, probably about right.

But not nearly enough if 50 million people all need them NOW.

 

 

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An interesting (thought-provoking) piece in The Atlantic. David Frum is a very good writer. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/trump-trading-lives-poor-economic-growth/610264/

Quote

At a tense moment in HBO’s Chernobyl, Soviet authorities discover that their robot technology is too primitive and faulty to clear ultra-radioactive rubble.

They could ask the Americans for help; the Americans have the machines they need. But such a request would further humiliate the Soviet state, already deeply shamed by the backwardness and incompetence revealed by the accident. Instead, the Soviets resort to “biorobots”—human beings. Teams of workers will hazard the radiation that disabled machines. To save itself, the regime will sacrifice its people.

 

I thought of that scene during President Donald Trump’s press conference Thursday about reopening the U.S. economy. The press conference lacked the drama of the HBO series. There was no single moment where the scheme was revealed in its enormity. Yet the intentions are becoming clear.

The administration has two plans for the next six months. It is implementing them at the same time. They reinforce each other, and each can replace the other if either fails.

Plan A is the Chernobyl plan: trading higher human casualties in hopes of a triumph for the central state.

By reopening some aspects of the U.S. economy in the next few weeks, Trump hopes to goose the stock market and restore jobs. It’s plainly impossible to return to full employment by November 2020, but Trump can hope that the trajectory of the economy will matter more than the economy’s absolute level.

 

In November 1984, as Ronald Reagan ran for reelection, unemployment still stood at 7.2 percent. But the economy was adding jobs fast through 1984: a net increase of 1.3 million from the year before. That’s why the Reagan ads called it “morning in America”: the sun was not yet fully risen in November 1984, but there was no mistaking that a better day lay ahead. Trump apparently hopes that by reopening now, he can make the same claim in time for his own reelection.

As this plan has come into view, critics have replied that the president lacks the power to reopen the American economy. Stay-in-place orders were issued by governors and mayors, not the federal government. The airlines were grounded for lack of passengers, not by presidential order. If Trump did not switch the economy off, how can he switch the economy back on?

But things are more complicated than that.

Trump may not have legal power to order people back to work. But he has tremendous power over the economic resources that allow most people to stay away from work. The $1,200 per person signed into law March 27 will not last long. The $600-a-week federal supplement to state unemployment-insurance benefits will expire July 31. The mortgage forbearance in the March 27 law is conditional, limited, and temporary. Rent forbearance is even more conditional, limited, and temporary. Thirty-one percent of American renters paid no rent in the first week of April.

 

Unless federal aid is extended and expanded, workers will soon be driven to return to work by economic necessity. If Trump withholds his signature, federal aid cannot be extended or expanded. So yes, Trump has a lot of power over the closing or opening of the U.S. economy.

Trump has another power, too. Half the states are led by Republican governors. With rare exceptions—Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, Larry Hogan in Maryland—Trump defines for those governors the limits of the politically possible. If Trump urges reopening, he gives permission to Republican governors who want to reopen fast, like Florida’s Ron DeSantis. He also puts pressure on Republican governors who would prefer to go slow, like Ohio’s Mike DeWine.

Reopening early will lead to higher mortality from COVID-19. How much higher? Here’s where the brutal reality of Plan A bites.

A Trump reopening in May will be only a partial reopening. Not all backs are equally exposed to the whip of immediate necessity. Trump can readily enough impel office cleaners back to the bank towers; he will have a harder time with the bankers themselves. Administration officials speak of a “phased reopening.” But if the reopening starts in May, it will be phased not by medical advice, but by the hard grammar of wealth and poverty: poorest first, richest last.

 

In the event of an early and partial reopening, the disparities can only widen. Those who can telecommute, who can shop online, or who work for health-conscious employers like public universities will be better positioned to minimize their exposure than those called back to work in factories, plants, and delivery services. The economy will be further divided along its widening class fault: those who can control their contacts with others, and those who cannot.

 
 

It did not have to be this way. If the Trump administration had not bungled testing, if it were not to this day jerking and lurching in obedience to the president’s latest ego demand, we could by now begin to see the way to a safer reopening in the next few weeks.

As is, the United States will be nearly as blind in May as it was in March. The testing regime remains bottlenecked and slow. Contact tracing barely exists. The people called back to work in the next few weeks will wear masks and stand farther apart from one another. But we are nowhere near the point of promptly identifying sick workers and effectively isolating them while they remain infectious.  

 

The plans for a May return imply acceptance of significant infection and higher casualties. Pro-Trump talkers boast that they will volunteer for these risks themselves. Broadcaster Glenn Beck said on March 25:

I would rather have my children stay home and all of us who are over 50 go in and keep this economy going and working even if we all get sick. I’d rather die than kill the country.

Those words were spoken from Beck’s home studio. The day before, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick (also a former radio host) said something similar on Fox News to Tucker Carlson, who was broadcasting from his home studio.

My message: Let’s get back to work, let’s get back to living, let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves.

But that is not how the pattern of sacrifice will be felt in real life. The Trump administration still has not built an effective testing-and-tracing system, almost half a year after the president received his first formal warning about the pandemic in his daily intelligence brief on January 3.   

 

The coronavirus as Americans know it is not an equal-opportunity killer. The research arm of American Public Media reported on April 17 that 27 percent of those killed by COVID-19 to date have been African American, more than twice their share of the population. Grocery workers are dying in the dozens, at least 41 as of April 12, according to The Washington Post, with thousands more fallen sick.

Thanks to the lockdown rules adopted by most states in March, coronavirus deaths per day are projected to subside to below 1,000 by May 1, from the more than 2,000 a day of mid-April. If the lockdown continues a little longer, that number could tumble to below 100 a day by mid-May.

But to look at casualties as numbers on the curve is to misunderstand what the Fox talkers and the Trump donors are telling us. The political calculus of Trump’s Plan A depends less on containing the total number of casualties than on confining the casualties to people deemed expendable.

A story from South Dakota is pertinent here. The state’s governor, Kristi Noem, resisted stay-in-place orders for her low-density state. As she said, “South Dakota is not New York City.” Then the state was hit by an outbreak at a Sioux Falls pork-packing plant: 634 cases among employees, plus hundreds more among those employees’ “contacts,” principally their relatives. Yet the Smithfield-plant outbreak has not changed Noem’s approach. The plant’s workforce, the BBC reports, was “made up largely of immigrants and refugees from places like Myanmar, Ethiopia, Nepal, Congo and El Salvador”—not Republican voters.

 
 
 

But what if the calculus of Plan A is wrong? What if reopening leads to a surge in deaths that cannot be politically contained? In that case, Trump reverts to his Plan B: a culture war against Democratic governors and blue states.

{Snip}

There's more, much more.

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18 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

I understand the concept just fine, BJ.  Your kids are "economically" privileged because they are white and their parents are well off because you are white.  That is the same "white privilege" that you constantly rail on about here.  You and your wife got the opportunities you got because you were white.  How many of your "black friends" bought a 54' sailboat and cruised 1/2 way around the world?  

https://www.stripes.com/lifestyle/despite-recruitment-efforts-few-black-pilots-land-in-air-force-navy-cockpits-1.11138

White privilege?

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1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:

Jeff, you are an ass.  Brown is not easy to get into and at least BJ did not come from a ton of money.  I assume they each worked their asses off and earned their opportunities.  Beats putting ignorant monkeys in jets.  

Oh I never said he didn't work hard or earn what he had.  But BJ rails against white privilege all the time, irregardless if those white folk worked hard for it too. 

He's a hypocrite about it, constantly, and that's my entire point.  I got accused of white privilege by @Raz'r just last week for daring to buy a car and set up utilities for a new house.  Doesn't he drive a Tesla?  Nothing screams white privilege like driving a Tesla.  I haven't seen a single black person drive a Tesla.

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15 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

On the serious side, why don't you tell me?  Given that the AF and Navy have made concerted recruiting efforts to attract them, it doesn't seem to me that white privilege is the issue here.  In fact it's the opposite of WP in that white's are actively trying to include them.  So what do you think is the cause?  

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1 minute ago, Cal20sailor said:
3 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Fear of flying?

Like the Tuskegee Airmen.  

I don't believe it's fear of flying.  But it was just as silly as claiming white privilege.  I thought this was a contest of coming up with the stupidest answer.  

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7 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

On the serious side, why don't you tell me?  Given that the AF and Navy have made concerted recruiting efforts to attract them, it doesn't seem to me that white privilege is the issue here.  In fact it's the opposite of WP in that white's are actively trying to include them.  So what do you think is the cause?  

There's an old joke, a Marine drill sergeant addressing the recruits on day one and screams at them, THERE ARE NO WHITE MARINES OR BLACK MARINES, THERE ARE ONLY GREEN MARINES.  Now all the light-green  marines can head to lunch while the dark-green marines work on the latrine.  

What is the cause?  Black kids by and large start the race two steps behind.  So, what's your solution, hobble the white kids?  Did you grow up in poverty with a single parent who worked just to exist and was too tired when they got home to help with homework or read to you and teach you your abc's or 123's?  If not, you sir, by your definition are a result of white privilege.  

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7 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

I don't believe it's fear of flying.  But it was just as silly as claiming white privilege.  I thought this was a contest of coming up with the stupidest answer.  

I can't compete if that's the metric.  Remember Wofsey is hovering.  

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8 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

There's an old joke, a Marine drill sergeant addressing the recruits on day one and screams at them, THERE ARE NO WHITE MARINES OR BLACK MARINES, THERE ARE ONLY GREEN MARINES.  Now all the light-green  marines can head to lunch while the dark-green marines work on the latrine.  

What is the cause?  Black kids by and large start the race two steps behind.  So, what's your solution, hobble the white kids?  Did you grow up in poverty with a single parent who worked just to exist and was too tired when they got home to help with homework or read to you and teach you your abc's or 123's?  If not, you sir, by your definition are a result of white privilege.  

Then so be it.  And so are you and so is BJ and so on.  Now what?  It sounds very much like you ARE suggesting the only SOLution is to hobble the white kids to make it more fair.  

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15 hours ago, chum said:

The temporary morgue issue was addressed by a mortician in the video posted by cmilliken upthread. Basically NY was operating at near capacity anyway, were in the middle of a pandemic, and refrigerated trucks are nothing new in the business. 

And I am worth it.:lol:

You find it funny!!  WTF? 

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1 minute ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Then so be it.  And so are you and so is BJ and so on.  Now what?  It sounds very much like you ARE suggesting the only SOLution is to hobble the white kids to make it more fair.  

Not at all.  I taught in Detroit schools HS math after 30yrs doing defense/intelligence research.  The numbers say that by and large, AA kids are disadvantaged economically and that correlates almost perfectly with school performance.  There is something called the education gap where AA kids start school on average 2yrs behind white or Asian kids on day one.  Why?  Simple explanation is that they're not getting the at home instruction before starting school.  Head Start is aimed at addressing this gap, providing the pre-school education to level the field.

The solution is to provide all students with the same pre-school opportunities whether at home or in an organized environment.  Make sure all kids have access to healthy food, not get shot, etc.  

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1 hour ago, Cal20sailor said:

Mike, you must be new to the world of publishing.  Peer-reviewed is only as good as your peers and their knowledge, and their motivation and attention to detail.  It's a filter and nothing else to get rid of bullshit papers.  But not much more.  Don't hold it up as meaning a paper is credible, there's no guarantee whatsoever.  

Do you ever just shut the fuck up?  Do you ever consider the possibility that someone else knows more than you do?  Apparently not.  

 

If you know a better way, then lay it on me.

I've been doing this for a while, and regardless the many flaws of the peer-review system, I've not seen a better system yet. The peer-review system has made all kinds of things possible, like the supercomputer in your hand, the health in your body, and the safety of your food.

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12 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

Holy shit.  Do you think anybody reads your wall of text bullshit?   

It saves screen space and scrolling time if you don’t quote him, thanks. ;)

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Just now, mikewof said:

 

If you come up with a system better then peer-review, lay it on me. Because I've been doing this for a while, and regardless the many flaws of the peer-review system, I've not seen a better system yet.

Hey Einstein, I didn't say it wasn't good, but it's just a filter.  Not all peer-reviewed papers are correct!  Hallal and Kosher beef is sometimes bad.  

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5 hours ago, Bus Driver said:

Makes as much sense as using the same condom.

Nah, you just turn them inside-out. Good to go for round 2!