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Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


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6 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Just say your not familiar with either journal and I'll keep lying about not seeing your daughter on the pole.

"Daughter on the pole?" WTF?

They're geology journals, I've read them, what's the big deal? You're a geologist, I like geologists, you're okay. Down, boy.

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1 minute ago, mikewof said:

"Daughter on the pole?" WTF?

They're geology journals, I've read them, what's the big deal? You're a geologist, I like geologists, you're okay. Down, boy.

Dancer in New York, c'mon.  You have not read the AGU or JGR journals or you would know how stupid the above statement is.  

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9 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Good luck on that one.

Since you think's it's cool to edit my posts, let's go.  You're daughter has been strippen for the past 6 months.  She doesn't want you to know.  

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3 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Since you think's it's cool to edit my posts, let's go.  You're daughter has been strippen for the past 6 months.  She doesn't want you to know.  

You know, this makes me really, really angry.

Are you saying that she could have set me up with some of her stripper pals and never bothered to tell me about this new side business?

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14 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Dancer in New York, c'mon.  You have not read the AGU or JGR journals or you would know how stupid the above statement is.  

I've published a paper in oil & gas, I've obviously read AGU and JGR journals. It's geology, it's not like it's quantum rocket science.

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10 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Since you think's it's cool to edit my posts, let's go.  You're daughter has been strippen for the past 6 months.  She doesn't want you to know.  

Edit your posts? I usually only do that to people who do it to me first.

Did you edit my posts first?

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6 minutes ago, mikewof said:

You know, this makes me really, really angry.

Are you saying that she could have set me up with some of her stripper pals and never bothered to tell me about this new side business?

Naaahhhh, you're way too smart to be taken in.  How is she supporting herself?

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2 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Edit your posts? I usually only do that to people who do it to me first.

Did you edit my posts first?

Mike, you're sounding insecure.  You forget, I don't give a shit about this place.  But your insecurity is noted, you never sailed, at least more than once.  You would have been given the shittiest job and failed miserably.  

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Just now, mikewof said:

You obviously don't have any college student aged kids in your life.

I don't have a stripper daughter so yes, you are correct.  We could have been friends but you screwed the pooch on COVID-19.

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27 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:
30 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

He's literally Sheldon from Big Bang Theory.

Sheldon is in way better shape than mike though

Two big differences. I have not watched Big Bang Theory much but enough to know this-

1- Sheldon can do math

2- Sheldon is kinda mean. Wofsey has many flaws including Olympic class look-at-me-ism but he does not seem to have much if any cruelty in him

- DSK

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Just now, Steam Flyer said:

Two big differences. I have not watched Big Bang Theory much but enough to know this-

1- Sheldon can do math

2- Sheldon is kinda mean. Wofsey has many flaws including Olympic class look-at-me-ism but he does not seem to have much if any cruelty in him

- DSK

Making fun of Geologists as a lesser science than whatever he does is pure Sheldon.  Right on #1.

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4 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

I understand the concept just fine, BJ.  Your kids are "economically" privileged because they are white and their parents are well off because you are white.  That is the same "white privilege" that you constantly rail on about here.  You and your wife got the opportunities you got because you were white.  How many of your "black friends" bought a 54' sailboat and cruised 1/2 way around the world?  

Once again, your explanation shows that you absolutely don't get it.

There are plenty of non-white people in the U.S. that have a lot higher net worth than we ever did. Plenty of non-white people can accumulate wealth, educate their kids and give them opportunities, and even take off and go sailing. It doesn't keep you down or prop you up, directly.

White privilege is when all other things are equal, white people in most post European societies have advantages over non-white people that they are not even aware of, and never will be unless it's pointed out to them.

Here are a couple of articles for you to skim and fail to grasp:

https://www.thoughtco.com/white-privilege-definition-3026087

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-white-privilege-is/2016/01/22/57166c72-c093-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html

"White privilege" is me getting a warning from a cop when I get pulled over with an expired tag, instead of getting fined, pulled out of the car and searched.

WP is being able to catch a cab at night or in the rain, every single time.

WP is people putting my resume in a "to call" pile for an interview because my first name is "William" not "Jamal" even though Jamal and I may have the same qualifications.

WP is fearing for your insurance rates, not your life, when you get pulled over for speeding.

WP is growing up seeing someone of your race being the action hero in 90%+ of the movies instead of the sacrificial comic relief.

WP is not having to "sound white" to fit in the workplace.

WP is when you commit a minor crime, being reasonable sure you won't be killed by the police when they catch you.

WP is holding a protest and being allowed to, versus having it broken up by police and government.

WP is being able to walk in a Kroger carrying your Precious strapped to your back and loaded without someone calling the cops on you.

WP is being able to exist in public spaces doing normal things without people calling the cops on you.

 

Etc. etc.

 

The bottom line is you could grab Bubba the redneck, bathe him, shave him, fix his teeth and put him in a suit and many people would assume more gravitas on first meeting him than they gave a black MD, PHD or CEO dressed the same way. Why is this? Our culture waits for the black man to prove he's competent, once, and waits for the white one to show he's an idiot and still gives him 2nd and 3rd chances. Why do so many white people think a black man being "articulate" is worthy of comment? Why the fuck did Brock Turner spend two months in jail?

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28 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

Making fun of Geologists as a lesser science than whatever he does is pure Sheldon.  Right on #1.

Well, yeah... that goes with the territory

What is it that Mikey does? Other than being the world's top expert on pretty much whatever he's talking about at the moment?

Do you think he gets paid for that?

- DSK

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Obviously the CDC can't guarantee the data, they're essentially a clearinghouse for the data that comes in from the states and cities. But you've essentially taken the position that if we can't fully guarantee the data that the data can't tell us anything. And that's just wrong.

And it's not even vaguely what I'm saying.

I'm saying when the CDC explicitly states what the limitations are, you can't just ignore their statement, and pretend the data is something it isn't.

 

2 hours ago, mikewof said:

In science, we can never fully trust the data. There is always error, there is always lack of accuracy and even a concurrent lack of precision which makes it even more difficult to know what is going on.  People who do science study error, it's part of the process.

That's not what you've been doing.  You've been pretending the error doesn't exist, despite the CDC statements about it.

2 hours ago, mikewof said:

And again ... the data our of NYC doesn't say anything about the cause of the pneumonia. I get that. But the data does show that an attempt was or was not made to check for pneumonia of any cause. That's a specific process to check for pneumonia, it requires either a chest x-ray, or even just listening to the chest, perhaps trying out a nebulizer to see if the congestion is in the mid respiratory system or the alveolar region. Making a diagnosis for pneumonia means that the provider had to go through a certain series of steps. And the data from NYC suggests that for whatever reason, for whatever population makes up the bulk of those deaths (I'm guessing mostly homeless people, people without insurance, Medicaid non-compliant, etc.) the procedures were not done, and we know that the procedures were not done because the data shows us that.

No, it doesn't, and no, you can't.  Not if you pay attention to the limitations of the data.  I'm not inventing this, Mike, the CDC and the NYCDH have been TELLING YOU the data doesn't capture what you're pretending it captures.

2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Now, is the data all wrong? Maybe. Is the data useless? Maybe.

Useful for what?  Useless for what?

If the people collecting the data tell you it's meant to track to the overall incidence of COVID-19, but that due to limitations conflates COVID-19 with influenza and other pneumonia; and tell you that deaths in one category maybe belong in a different category; and tell you that they're  including all 3 categories in order to compensate for those misclassifications... it is still very useful for tracking the overall incidence of COVID-19.  It's intended purpose.

It is NOT useful for comparing the categories to one another, because   -  as stated by the people collecting the data  -  some of them are not in the correct category.

It is also NOT useful for comparing one category to another, when you pretend a category means something else than what the people collecting it tell you it is.  

2 hours ago, mikewof said:

But the data still says what it says, and it stands, I'm going to assume a sufficient level of integrity of that data, because I can only assume that the professionals who gather that data and sent it to the CDC did their jobs as best as they were able to do.

It's not about the integrity of the data, Mike, it's about not pretending it captures information it was never designed to capture in the first place.  It's about your integrity. 

If you insist on pretending the data is useful for something that the data collectors repeatedly state the data is not intended for?  That's not science.

 

2 hours ago, chum said:

Looks like Sol can tone down the hysteria, it’s not gonna get Fla Man nearly as bad as was feared:

http://www.healthdata.org/

Latest estimates down to 1300 deaths by Aug, down from 4500 just earlier this week.

werent we supposed to have a 1 to 3 percent rate even with distancing measures? We were supposed to die in waves. Fla Man isn’t even doing that.

"After June 1, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size"

It's not June 1st yet, is it?

jacksonville-beach.webp?w=790&f=247014e0

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4 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Oh I never said he didn't work hard or earn what he had.  But BJ rails against white privilege all the time, irregardless if those white folk worked hard for it too. 

He's a hypocrite about it, constantly, and that's my entire point.  I got accused of white privilege by @Raz'r just last week for daring to buy a car and set up utilities for a new house.  Doesn't he drive a Tesla?  Nothing screams white privilege like driving a Tesla.  I haven't seen a single black person drive a Tesla.

Railing against?

One might say trying to educate the pig-ignorant, as an alternative.

Po-tay-toe, po-tah-toe.

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4 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:
4 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

On the serious side, why don't you tell me?  Given that the AF and Navy have made concerted recruiting efforts to attract them, it doesn't seem to me that white privilege is the issue here.  In fact it's the opposite of WP in that white's are actively trying to include them.  So what do you think is the cause?  

One interesting observation was on the low number of black officers in the military, since most flyers were also officers. The article stated quite clearly that an undergraduate degree was required to be an officer, so that the relative accessibility of a college education to much of the black population meant fewer blacks with a college degree in the military.

That certain does seem like a trickle down effect if white privilege, yes.

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3 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Did you grow up in poverty with a single parent who worked just to exist and was too tired when they got home to help with homework or read to you and teach you your abc's or 123's?  If not, you sir, by your definition are a result of white privilege.  

It's a little more complex than that, because there are tons of white people in that boat, too.

Now, if the smart and ambitious poor, white person was given more opportunities (more job interviews, promotions, etc.) by other white people in management positions you may have a case.

But even then, the white kid wouldn't really know about it or realize it was happening, or ask for it. It just happens.

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1 hour ago, Cal20sailor said:

Since you think's it's cool to edit my posts, let's go.  You're daughter has been strippen for the past 6 months.  She doesn't want you to know.  

I always thought going after people's kids - even adults kids - is a pretty piss poor move.

Just sayin'.

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5 minutes ago, frenchie said:

"After June 1, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size"

It's not June 1st yet, is it?

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You guys on the other side of the pond really need to have Trump come forward and tell the truth:

1. Going back to normal now will mean a shitton of funerals in your near future.

2. This is not going to be over anytime soon, unless we luck out on a vaccine and you actually get a shot.

3. Stay the fuck at home.

You will also need to install some decent social safety nets so you don't have to chose between millions of dead or millions of homeless.

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4 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

You guys on the other side of the pond really need to have Trump come forward and tell the truth:

1. Going back to normal now will mean a shitton of funerals in your near future.

2. This is not going to be over anytime soon, unless we luck out on a vaccine and you actually get a shot.

3. Stay the fuck at home.

You will also need to install some decent social safety nets so you don't have to chose between millions of dead or millions of homeless.

We have decent social safety nets. What do you think the F35 is anyways? You think we build those things for national defense?

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

I've published a paper in oil & gas, I've obviously read AGU and JGR journals. It's geology, it's not like it's quantum rocket science.

He published a paper in oil and gas.  It was titled “Gasbaggery - when you don’t know what you’re talking about but don’t care”.

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Just now, mathystuff said:

I am well aware of how out of character that would be.

If Trump tells one honest truth about his own incompetence and mishandling, it might unravel the whole sweater.

Narcissists do not apologize or back down. We're in this until Mitch McConnell decides we've had enough, or we beat back their attempts to steal the election and make it permanent.

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4 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

If Trump tells one honest truth about his own incompetence and mishandling, it might unravel the whole sweater.

Narcissists do not apologize or back down. We're in this until Mitch McConnell decides we've had enough, or we beat back their attempts to steal the election and make it permanent.

Well in that case I wish you guys good luck with plan B. He is old, overweight, unhealthy and in the risk group. You could luck out.

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

"Daughter on the pole?" WTF?

They're geology journals, I've read them, what's the big deal? You're a geologist, I like geologists, you're okay. Down, boy.

I wonder.  What type of personality disorder does it take for you to be totally oblivious that everyone you interact with here just really wants you to shut up?

I mean, I know it's tied in with your belief that you know more, about anything, than anyone.

I'd wager you and Trump are actually very similar.

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20 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

Well in that case I wish you guys good luck with plan B. He is old, overweight, unhealthy and in the risk group. You could luck out.

Unfortunately, he is only the top of the iceberg.  After all, there's a big chunk of people who still support him.  They are the real problem.

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18 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

Unfortunately, he is only the top of the iceberg.  After all, there's a big chunk of people who still support him.  They are the real problem.

Then there are the non-supporting supporters who are totally not supporting their boy Shitstain. If only disgusting liberals such as myself would meet this legitimate majority elected president half way then we wouldn’t be in the sorry state Hillary forced us into. Hi Jeff! Hi Guy! Hi Tom!

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27 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

Well in that case I wish you guys good luck with plan B. He is old, overweight, unhealthy and in the risk group. You could luck out.

Thanks, appreciate the good wishes. I'm not sure what Plan B is.

The socio-economic-political machine that put Trump in place is the real problem, and they not going away easily. Like, losing a few elections.

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

Well, yeah... that goes with the territory

What is it that Mikey does? Other than being the world's top expert on pretty much whatever he's talking about at the moment?

Do you think he gets paid for that?

- DSK

I have no idea.  I have him on ignore but obviously I get friendly fire quotes here and there.  He's just some douche who knows a little about everything and not a lot about anything and carries Trumps water.

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1 hour ago, B.J. Porter said:

I always thought going after people's kids - even adults kids - is a pretty piss poor move.

Just sayin'.

I think when they're 21+ and mentioned several times in a bullshit way by their dad, they're fair game.  I'm willing to learn otherwise.  

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14 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I think when they're 21+ and mentioned several times in a bullshit way by their dad, they're fair game.  I'm willing to learn otherwise.  

I disagree, and I think it reflects poorly on you.

But that's just my opinion. Going after my kids is an easy add to the ignore list for me for a poster.

It's been done before.

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Just now, B.J. Porter said:

I disagree, and I think it reflects poorly on you.

But that's just my opinion. Going after my kids is an easy add to the ignore list for me for a poster.

It's been done before.

Fair.  But then you had that white privilege! ;-)

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2 hours ago, roundthebuoys said:

Making fun of Geologists as a lesser science than whatever he does is pure Sheldon.  Right on #1.

You're confused, I started in geology. I love geology. Anyone who thinks it's a "lesser science" hasn't had to do much of it.

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2 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Well, yeah... that goes with the territory

What is it that Mikey does? Other than being the world's top expert on pretty much whatever he's talking about at the moment?

Do you think he gets paid for that?

- DSK

Yeah, some billionaire fuckwit pays me to waste my time here..

Do you actually believe that anyone is paid to do anything here? As far we know, Clean is paid in nothing more than beer.

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2 hours ago, frenchie said:

And it's not even vaguely what I'm saying.

I'm saying when the CDC explicitly states what the limitations are, you can't just ignore their statement, and pretend the data is something it isn't.

 

That's not what you've been doing.  You've been pretending the error doesn't exist, despite the CDC statements about it.

No, it doesn't, and no, you can't.  Not if you pay attention to the limitations of the data.  I'm not inventing this, Mike, the CDC and the NYCDH have been TELLING YOU the data doesn't capture what you're pretending it captures.

Useful for what?  Useless for what?

If the people collecting the data tell you it's meant to track to the overall incidence of COVID-19, but that due to limitations conflates COVID-19 with influenza and other pneumonia; and tell you that deaths in one category maybe belong in a different category; and tell you that they're  including all 3 categories in order to compensate for those misclassifications... it is still very useful for tracking the overall incidence of COVID-19.  It's intended purpose.

It is NOT useful for comparing the categories to one another, because   -  as stated by the people collecting the data  -  some of them are not in the correct category.

It is also NOT useful for comparing one category to another, when you pretend a category means something else than what the people collecting it tell you it is.  

It's not about the integrity of the data, Mike, it's about not pretending it captures information it was never designed to capture in the first place.  It's about your integrity. 

If you insist on pretending the data is useful for something that the data collectors repeatedly state the data is not intended for?  That's not science.

You seem to have made some assumptions.

I'm simply going by the NYC data of how many pneumonia diagnoses were made per SARS death. For the fourth time, I understand the limitations of that data, but the report still means something, unless NYC's idea of a pneumonia diagnosis means something completely different than NY State, NJ, CT, etc..

And again, I understand that some of the data is wrong and may eventually be corrected, but sometimes it still makes sense to work with what you have. If the data changes in a way that shows something new, then I'll say something to the effect of "the data changed and now it shows something new."

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43 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I think when they're 21+ and mentioned several times in a bullshit way by their dad, they're fair game.  I'm willing to learn otherwise.  

All of my kids are younger than 21, and I never wrote otherwise. I'm not sure that I ever mentioned that she is a dancer, that's not the kind of thing I would like to share here, I just wrote that her team closed up with the quarantine, which it did.

All this stems from me reading some geology journals? Why does that bother you sufficiently that you need to suggest that my 19 year old child is a stripper? Don't you think that perhaps writing that about someone could potentially hurt them?

You likely don't care, but I guess it's somewhat my fault for engaging with you. Lesson learned.

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Maybe we should have not shut down...

“Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.

Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize.

Sweden has left its schools, gyms, cafes, bars and restaurants open throughout the spread of the pandemic. Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

 

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

Maybe we should have not shut down...

...

Then why did Trump make us do it? Everyone told him not to do it, but he knew it was the right thing to do.

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7 minutes ago, Dog said:

Maybe we should have not shut down...

“Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.

Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize.

Sweden has left its schools, gyms, cafes, bars and restaurants open throughout the spread of the pandemic. Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

 

If 43% of Americans didn't think there was no such thing as pollution, and knew that rights entail responsibilities, maybe.

As it stands, the socialists obviously have a better way of coping. Maybe you should switch.

- DSK

 

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11 minutes ago, Dog said:

Sweden has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines”.

 

Substances is empirically short supply in Trump’s America starting with Trump himself.

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11 minutes ago, Dog said:

Maybe we should have not shut down...

“Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.

Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize.

Sweden has left its schools, gyms, cafes, bars and restaurants open throughout the spread of the pandemic. Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

 

Maybe so,    It was an expensive decision not made frivolously.    We made it in haste, having failed to prepare pretty much anywhere but Taiwan.   We won’t know if it was made correctly for many months,   .    

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

Maybe we should have not shut down...

“Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.

Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize.

Sweden has left its schools, gyms, cafes, bars and restaurants open throughout the spread of the pandemic. Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

 

While Sweden didn't have a mandated lockdown, it still appealed to its citizens to reduce social contacts. Which creates problems of its own like some kids going to school, while others stay at home. Home office rates in Stockholm are comparable to Hamburg and both cities have about the same population. 10 times more deaths in Stockholm, tho.

Sweden is also the only european country where deaths per day are still rising quickly. All while having more deaths than the other 3 scandinavian countries combined. While denmark is working on a plan to open up again sweden is discussing finally starting a lockdown. The norwegians and finish are pissed at them and closed their borders.

Note that scandinavian countries have their own ski resorts, so they don't often travel to the alps, where most of the initial european spreading happened.

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1 hour ago, chum said:

Not sure why you’re asking.

rhetorical question.

the projection is based on social distancing & etc staying in place until June 1.  DeSantis & some mayors have already started relaxing some of them. 

 

1 hour ago, mikewof said:

You seem to have made some assumptions.

I'm simply going by the NYC data of how many pneumonia diagnoses were made per SARS death.

No, you're not.  You might think you are, but only because you're refusing to read anything the CDC tells you about the data, no matter how many times I quote it to you.

Quote

For the fourth time, I understand the limitations of that data,

You observably don't.  If you did, you'd drop this wrong-headed approach.

Quote

but the report still means something,

It means what it's designed to mean: it provides a provisional picture of COVID-19's prevalence & spread. 

It does not mean what you insist on interpreting it to mean.  The CDC specifically TOLD YOU it's useless for what you're trying to use it for.

Pneumonia and influenza deaths are included to provide context for understanding the completeness of COVID-19 mortality data and related trends. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Thus, increases in pneumonia or influenza deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality. Additionally, estimates of completeness for influenza or pneumonia deaths may provide context for understanding the lag in reporting for COVID-19 deaths, as it is anticipated that these causes would have similar delays in reporting, processing, and coding. However, it is possible that reporting of COVID-19 mortality may be slower or faster than for other causes of death, and that the delay may change over time. Analyses to better understand and quantify reporting delays for COVID-19 deaths and related causes are underway. The list of causes provided in these tables may expand in future releases as more data are received, and other potentially comorbid conditions are determined.

 

Provisional data are incomplete, and the level of completeness varies by jurisdiction, week, decedent’s age, and cause of death.

 

Provisional counts of deaths are underestimated relative to final counts

 

Death counts should not be compared across states. Data timeliness varies by state. Some states report deaths on a daily basis, while other states report deaths weekly or monthly. Furthermore, health departments and state vital record offices may be affected by COVID-19 related response activities, which could further delay death certificate reporting. Currently, 63% of U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is variation within states. Twenty states report over 75% of deaths within the first 10 days, while three states report fewer than 1% of deaths within 10 days.

 

you're not using the data, you're abusing it. 

 

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12 minutes ago, frenchie said:

rhetorical question.

the projection is based on social distancing & etc staying in place until June 1.  DeSantis & some mayors have already started relaxing some of them. 

 

No, you're not.  You might think you are, but only because you're refusing to read anything the CDC tells you about the data, no matter how many times I quote it to you.

You observably don't.  If you did, you'd drop this wrong-headed approach.

It means what it's designed to mean: it provides a provisional picture of COVID-19's prevalence & spread. 

It does not mean what you insist on interpreting it to mean.  The CDC specifically TOLD YOU it's useless for what you're trying to use it for.

Pneumonia and influenza deaths are included to provide context for understanding the completeness of COVID-19 mortality data and related trends. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Thus, increases in pneumonia or influenza deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality. Additionally, estimates of completeness for influenza or pneumonia deaths may provide context for understanding the lag in reporting for COVID-19 deaths, as it is anticipated that these causes would have similar delays in reporting, processing, and coding. However, it is possible that reporting of COVID-19 mortality may be slower or faster than for other causes of death, and that the delay may change over time. Analyses to better understand and quantify reporting delays for COVID-19 deaths and related causes are underway. The list of causes provided in these tables may expand in future releases as more data are received, and other potentially comorbid conditions are determined.

 

Provisional data are incomplete, and the level of completeness varies by jurisdiction, week, decedent’s age, and cause of death.

 

Provisional counts of deaths are underestimated relative to final counts

 

Death counts should not be compared across states. Data timeliness varies by state. Some states report deaths on a daily basis, while other states report deaths weekly or monthly. Furthermore, health departments and state vital record offices may be affected by COVID-19 related response activities, which could further delay death certificate reporting. Currently, 63% of U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is variation within states. Twenty states report over 75% of deaths within the first 10 days, while three states report fewer than 1% of deaths within 10 days.

 

you're not using the data, you're abusing it. 

 

And you keep telling me that I don't understand what it means.

First off, the data I'm using is the number of pneumonia diagnoses in people who have been diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2, I'm not comparing the death counts across states, I'm comparing the ratio of deaths to pneumonia diagnoses, I understand that the data is not complete (and won't be until about January 2021) and I understand that some deaths may be misclassified. The same can be said about any state's data, it's the nature of looking at data as we gather it, and there is no way that I know around that.

But what you're essentially suggesting is that the CDC data is useless for anything other than practicing Excel.

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28 minutes ago, mikewof said:

And you keep telling me that I don't understand what it means.

No, I'm saying you're ignoring it.

Just like you ignored the warnings about the lag in the provisional data, and the explicit instructions to not compare it to final data from previous years.

 

Quote

First off, the data I'm using is the number of pneumonia diagnoses in people who have been diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2, I'm not comparing the death counts across states, I'm comparing the ratio of deaths to pneumonia diagnoses,

"I'm not comparing death counts across States, I'm comparing the ratio between different categories of death counts across States". 

Seriously?  Do you fucking hear yourself?

Even someone with only 11th grade math can spot the logical flaw in that sentence.   

 

Did you read the bit I quoted above, where the CDC explained that: 

the level of completeness varies by jurisdiction, week, decedent’s age, and cause of death.

?

Did you give any thought at all to what that means, in terms of your attempts?

 

Quote

I understand that the data is not complete (and won't be until about January 2021)

December 2021:

Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined.

 

Quote

and I understand that some deaths may be misclassified. The same can be said about any state's data, it's the nature of looking at data as we gather it, and there is no way that I know around that.  But what you're essentially suggesting is that the CDC data is useless for anything other than practicing Excel.

I'm "essentially suggesting" that the CDC data is not useful for things that the CDC expressly tells you it's not useful for.

Just like you can't read a license plate number off a 1-meter resolution satellite photo, and you can't see a virus, or even bacteria, with an 10x geologist's loupe. 

You can't assign a ratio between diagnoses, from data that's only meant to capture the aggregate.

I said it way earlier, I'll say it again: to accomplish what you're trying to do, you would need access to the actual death certificates.

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37 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Sweden’s movie theaters are open and empty. Business is down, bigly, in many sectors. I’m not sure what’s so fucking hard to understand about this.

Sometimes there is no right answer and the question becomes ‘Which is least bad?’    We shut the world down hoping to save many lives,    We don’t know the cost.   We don’t know how many lives.    We don’t know which options would have obtained similar results.   We pretend our solution was the only one.   Many here have been salivating at the expectation of hoards of people dying on the open beaches of Florida, divine judgement for their making money off of spring break.    Nothing happened.    We then turned to Georgia, Texas and Arkansas.   Any second now they will make New York look mild, divine justice to conservatives who weren’t sure they needed to give up getting paid.   Except they mostly remain healthy.     

Some pretend human life is worth any treasure, except it isn’t.   Our screwed up healthcare, our tolerance of high speed traffic, our exceptance of malaria, there are countless examples where we decide the cost of safety or health is cost prohibitive.    This time we never asked the cost or the benefit,    We just shut the world down.   It may have been the least bad choice.    We will never know if we aren’t willing to critically examine our decision,   I suspect cheaper choices could have saved more lives.   They just wouldn’t have been the right lives.  

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28 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

You're not a geologist! You're a remote sensing guy! Synthetic aperture is good stuff. I'm on Research Gate, too, why didn't you just type in my name? Here's one.

We had a big discussion of about SAR and detecting submarines at depth, about six years ago. Do you remember that thread?

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14 minutes ago, frenchie said:

You can't assign a ratio between diagnoses, from data that's only meant to capture the aggregate.

What specifically is wrong about looking at a ratio of the aggregate data? All kinds of measurement are aggregate data, from flow to voltage to socioeconomic. Why does the CDC even bother to publish data if it's as useless as you suggest?

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22 minutes ago, Lark said:

Sometimes there is no right answer and the question becomes ‘Which is least bad?’    We shut the world down hoping to save many lives,    We don’t know the cost.   We don’t know how many lives.    We don’t know which options would have obtained similar results.   We pretend our solution was the only one.   Many here have been salivating at the expectation of hoards of people dying on the open beaches of Florida, divine judgement for their making money off of spring break.    Nothing happened.    We then turned to Georgia, Texas and Arkansas.   Any second now they will make New York look mild, divine justice to conservatives who weren’t sure they needed to give up getting paid.   Except they mostly remain healthy.     

Some pretend human life is worth any treasure, except it isn’t.   Our screwed up healthcare, our tolerance of high speed traffic, our exceptance of malaria, there are countless examples where we decide the cost of safety or health is cost prohibitive.    This time we never asked the cost or the benefit,    We just shut the world down.   It may have been the least bad choice.    We will never know if we aren’t willing to critically examine our decision,   I suspect cheaper choices could have saved more lives.   They just wouldn’t have been the right lives.  

I linked it earlier but take a look at the Diamond Princess progression of events.

Why?  This was a commercial cruise liner with the quarantine and testing being handled by the Japanese.  Why that matters?  1) they probably don't lie 2) they're competent 3) the vessel is an isolated from outside contamination.  There's a thousand little things the Japanese may have done wrong, but was anything they did so much different than what you'd expect to happen in any urban area?  Not really.

I think governments around the world looked at the Ro rate (>10), the fatality rate (>2%), and the asymptomatic rate (~60%) and that was that.  As I said elsewhere, that's not enough to end a civilization but it's enough to end a government.   As we've discussed last month, I don't know if it was the right choice, but I suspect it was the only choice at the time.  Money doesn't mean anything right now - the numbers being thrown around are insane.  Given that backdrop, shutting down the economy was inevitable.  We had to try that option.

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26 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

I linked it earlier but take a look at the Diamond Princess progression of events.

Why?  This was a commercial cruise liner with the quarantine and testing being handled by the Japanese.  Why that matters?  1) they probably don't lie 2) they're competent 3) the vessel is an isolated from outside contamination.  There's a thousand little things they may have done wrong, but was anything they did so much different than what you'd expect to happen in any urban area?

I think governments around the world looked at the Ro rate (>10), the fatality rate (>2%), and the asymptomatic rate (~60%) and that was that.  As I said elsewhere, that's not enough to end a civilization but it's enough to end a government.   As we've discussed last month, I don't know if it was the right choice, but I suspect it was the only choice at the time.  Money doesn't mean anything right now - the numbers being thrown around are insane.  Given that backdrop, shutting down the economy was inevitable.  We had to try.

As is your wont, you raise good points,   I’ll look for your link.    I do trust Japanese data.

What should we have done, based on the information available at the time, and the lack of preparation of March?    There may not have been a better choice.   Insufficient medical care for those that paid insurance bills or work for the government, and feel entitled to good care, would have been unforgivable.   The disruption of the ‘social contract’ and resulting unrest were the concern, not the dead people.   If they would have died slowly, like cancer, or died instantly so medical care was irrelevant, we would have just accepted it.

What should we have done?    What should we do next time?    This question deserves consideration.    There likely will be a next time.   Flair ups, second and third waves are predicted.    There may be many waves, as the virus mutates and immunity wanes.     Do we shut down the world every time?   

I like to look to history for perspective    Spanish Flu (a label as racist as Chinese virus) killed 30,000 per million.   The 1959 Flu only killed 290 per million people, making Covid worse in Europe with 490 deaths per million so far.   This is bad, but hardly the worst virus ever.    How often do we shut down the world?    Do we still shut it down if the next mutation prefers a different risk group and wipes out Indiana and Africa, but only kills a few hundred in Europe or the states?    

 

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3 minutes ago, Lark said:

 How often do we shut down the world?    Do we still shut it down if the next mutation prefers a different risk group and wipes out Indiana and Africa, but only kills a few hundred in Europe or the states?    

  

There's not a lot of 'we' in the world these days.  Some will do it early, some will do it late, some won't do it.  Who is right or wrong will depend on the bug.  Governments who run things from the seat of their pants will usually fuck it up, because that's what happens when you try to solve complicated questions with blunt tools.

I imagine the first competent and non-corrupt administration we have after this shit show will take some serious steps to create and implement a national epidemic and pandemic response plan and build a hell of a stockpile.  They will not want to be remembered as the second president who killed hundreds of thousands of people with his stupidity.

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2 hours ago, Dog said:

... "Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly..."

Still having trouble figuring out why it works in Sweden and not the US? Fuck off.

Healthcare-Workers-block.jpeg

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

You're not a geologist! You're a remote sensing guy! Synthetic aperture is good stuff. I'm on Research Gate, too, why didn't you just type in my name? Here's one.

We had a big discussion of about SAR and detecting submarines at depth, about six years ago. Do you remember that thread?

Submarines at depth?  Pun?

I remember laying out my experience but not remembering anything on your end.  Please tell.  

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34 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

You keep acting like people would be out there spending if it weren’t “shut down”. I’m telling you, factually, they aren’t. I can tell you personally I know of Swedes staying at home . I can tell you straight up restaurants were hurting in the us before they were shut down.

The question isn’t the bullshit you, dog, Trump and millicent are spewing.

The question is “how do you get people spending and living again”.

 

as an aside, I fucking love having the same dipshits like @Dog and the National review who told us Swedish style socialism would never work in the US laud Sweden, when the same things that allow Sweden to attempt to do this, are the same things they say the US doesn’t have.

Name my bullshit.   Challenge any facts I present.   You can draw your own conclusions.   Please justify them, if you want me to agree.   I’m not drawing many conclusions right now, but somebody should be asking the questions,   At least around here the casual dining restaurants had an hour or more wait every weekend before the crises.   Their problem was sufficient labor with the pay they could offer.  

I’m hardly a Trump supporter.    I’ve long argued for socialized medicine.    I’m also practical,    People die.   People die prematurely.   If it’s poor people we don’t care much.   If it can be blamed on their own behavior (even when the blame is simplistic or unjust, like drug overdoses) we shrug our shoulders.     When mortality is slow and manageable we just nip at the margins, carefully not to inconvenience ourselves every day for a lifetime risk.   Highway fatalities are a great example of this,   Covid caught us by surprise.   It started by killing business and leasure travelers.   That made it relevant.    We might face slow suffocation through no fault of our own.   That made it scary.   The hospital might turn insured patients away.    The risky behaviors that make it worse were things we like, like poor diet and drinking alcohol.   That made It impossible to rationalize the problem away.    Our reaction isn’t based on logic.   It’s based on emotion.   This is the radiation of our time.  It’s the invisible killer we feel powerless to stop.   

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4 minutes ago, Lark said:

Name my bullshit.   Challenge any facts I present.   You can draw your own conclusions.   Please justify them, if you want me to agree.   I’m not drawing many conclusions right now, but somebody should be asking the questions,   At least around here the casual dining restaurants had an hour or more wait every weekend before the crises.   Their problem was sufficient labor with the pay they could offer.  

I’m hardly a Trump supporter.    I’ve long argued for socialized medicine.    I’m also practical,    People die.   People die prematurely.   If it’s poor people we don’t care much.   If it can be blamed on their own behavior (even when the blame is simplistic or unjust, like drug overdoses) we shrug our shoulders.     When mortality is slow and manageable we just nip at the margins, carefully not to inconvenience ourselves every day for a lifetime risk.   Highway fatalities are a great example of this,   Covid caught us by surprise.   It started by killing business and leasure travelers.   That made it relevant.    We might face slow suffocation through no fault of our own.   That made it scary.   The hospital might turn insured patients away.    The risky behaviors that make it worse were things we like, like poor diet and drinking alcohol.   That made It impossible to rationalize the problem away.    Our reaction isn’t based on logic.   It’s based on emotion.   This is the radiation of our time.  It’s the invisible killer we feel powerless to stop.   

So should my mom who is 90 and smarter than you on any day of the week die?

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

You're not a geologist! You're a remote sensing guy! Synthetic aperture is good stuff. I'm on Research Gate, too, why didn't you just type in my name? Here's one.

We had a big discussion of about SAR and detecting submarines at depth, about six years ago. Do you remember that thread?

Sure you are, post your peer-review papers.  You consider what you posted as peer-reviewed?  Moron if so.

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3 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Sure you are, post your peer-review papers.  You consider what you posted as peer-reviewed?  Moron if so.

Mike, you know nothing about SAR and the ocean.  You know shit or I would know your name.  I don't. 

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