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Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


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2 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

So all those healthy people have to manage to avoid all those unhealthy at risk ones?  I knew you wouldn't get it - the answer to going forward is testing and contact tracing which according to Trump and his Pandumbic Response team is: you're on your own. Which is why we are in the fucked up position we are in now. Try spending an hour watching that Frontline show I mentioned and you might be at least somewhat intelligent on the subject. Not holding my breath.

No.  Testing only has some validity when you have a plan for what happens when you get the results of the test.  Please, tell me yours and what criteria you need to proceed.  Ranges of +/- 10% will be OK.

My plan is to assess my personal risk and behave accordingly.

 

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You're a smart guy. You're obviously aware that New Zealand is a suburb of Bondi, just round the corner from Random's joint in Queensland.  BJ can just yell over the fence at him.  Yes, the USA i

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the great

Of course what I think has not bearing.  But the example was raised and I am free to render my opinion--if Bus Driver didn't want a reaction, he wouldn't have posted that.   I actually feel sorry for

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26 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

No.  Testing only has some validity when you have a plan for what happens when you get the results of the test.  Please, tell me yours and what criteria you need to proceed.  Ranges of +/- 10% will be OK.

My plan is to assess my personal risk and behave accordingly.

 

My plan is the same as yours, but you might want to see what SK did and what California is working on, the fact that Trump has punted all responsibility for this is pathetic. Testing and contact tracing is not rocket science despite that fact that your buddy our resident rocket scientist is too butthurt to understand it.

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1 minute ago, chum said:

Please show me where they’ve worked out the logistics /results of our current economic course so I can weigh the cost/benefit too.

You need to consult with Jared since he is in charge of that. Best of luck to you.

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1 hour ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Do you honestly think we're going to stop people from getting infected?  Do I need to repeat, yet again, that flattening the curve is simply to stop hospitals from getting overwhelmed all at once.  It was never and is still not intended to stop people from ever being exposed.  For that to happen, we would have to be in permanent lockdown.  As @badlatitude's OP title says, some people are going to die.  Just like 1000s of people die every every year from the seasonal flu, cancer, TB, etc.  The best we can do is mitigate it.  Feel free to live your life in fear for the rest of your life.  Enjoy your misery.  

Edit:  I continue to maintain that the next phase is to continue to protect the most vulnerable (the old, the sick, etc) and quarantine the crap out of them and slowly try to get back to some sense of normal.  The best thing IMHO is to start letting the young and healthy get exposed and start building up some immunity.  Without it, we will continue to see big spikes and waves all at once.

 

RIF, clearly. You have no understanding of my position - which is - simply, we'll have to reopen soon. With current leadership, there's no way of avoiding the Italian/Spanish death tolls. But this idea that some podunk county can reopen unilaterally is foolishness of the highest degree.

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1 hour ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

How is it any different than the logistics now???  Old people, stay the f#&k home!  Wear masks and gloves when you go out.  Wash your hands.  Social distance yourselves.  Seriously, how is it any different than how we're doing it now - except that 22M are not out of work and people's retirements are flushed down the toilet forever as we tee up the next Great Depression?

Do you think it will be normal? You're stupider than I thought, and I don't think highly of you.

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Just now, chum said:

so were flying blind?

dunno about the flying part.....  muddling along might be a better description. The new motto could be "We Are Dying to Restart The Economy"  as likely said by Tx Lt. Gov Dan.

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23 minutes ago, chum said:

so were flying blind?

You just figured that out?  This is 99% crowd control, with a few empty promises thrown in for fun, since Trump has everything he needs.  And will need, probably.....

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36 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

My plan is the same as yours, but you might want to see what SK did and what California is working on, the fact that Trump has punted all responsibility for this is pathetic. Testing and contact tracing is not rocket science despite that fact that your buddy our resident rocket scientist is too butthurt to understand it.

This is a big country with a highly diverse climate and ecology.  It's not just a big red desert with a fringe of trees like a tonsured monk.  There is no one size fits all for anything.

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1 minute ago, Saorsa said:

This is a big country with a highly diverse climate and ecology.  It's not just a big red desert with a fringe of trees like a tonsured monk.  There is no one size fits all for anything.

Cool. What's your plan?

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2 hours ago, Amati said:

I discovered at the age of 3 that my parents would leave me alone if I was reading. I got the bug early- still like it.  Thesuaras are a pain in the ass, usually I can pull a word out of my brain in less time than it takes to look it up.   I prefer the OED & Dr. Johnson’s dictionary.  Fun reading if you have the time....

Sometimes though, it's better not to use the 50 cent words, even if you have 'em.

https://www.arealme.com/vocabulary-size-test/en/

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39 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

This is a big country with a highly diverse climate and ecology.  It's not just a big red desert with a fringe of trees like a tonsured monk.  There is no one size fits all for anything.

Translation: Your guy is a petulant self centered con man who doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself so forget about a national plan to do anything beyond getting himself reelected. FEMA now stands for Frayed Emergency  Management Administration.

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2 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Translation: Your guy is a petulant self centered con man who doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself so forget about a national plan to do anything beyond getting himself reelected. FEMA now stands for Frayed Emergency  Management Administration.

It's getting pretty close to being Fucked Everything Mal Administration.

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Just now, astro said:

It's working in AU and NZ.

 

But why?  I thought you said you can't stop them getting infected.  Make up your mind Jeffie.

Jeffreaux's real response, but he's a chickenshit, is to just say "the old fucks are gonna get it sooner or later, might as well get it now"

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5 minutes ago, astro said:
2 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Do you honestly think we're going to stop people from getting infected? 

It's working in AU and NZ.

 

2 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

 

Edit:  I continue to maintain that the next phase is to continue to protect the most vulnerable (the old, the sick, etc) and quarantine the crap out of them

But why?  I thought you said you can't stop them getting infected.  Make up your mind Jeffie.

That's not entirely how it's going down, and not quite how they are managing it.

Ardern's address was quite clear - they do NOT think they can eliminate all infections and prevent all new ones. But what they can do is test, trace, and isolate to keep the breakouts contained.

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3 hours ago, hrothgar said:

Michigan is halfway to the 500/deaths/million.  Wayne County (Detroit) is at 725.  Kent County is at 38.

Population density is everything.  We shouldn't be applying a one-size fits all solution to this.

Hroth

Blaine County, ID disagrees.

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10 hours ago, astro said:

Yep.  All well documented.

The only way out for a male is marriage to a rich girl.  It used to happen because nature ensured that there were more females born than males.  The females had to select good looking males from the lower class after all the others were taken.

Now they don't worry so much about marriage and it's not working.  Both gene pools are degenerating.

Looks like Covid may be offsetting that a bit.

It appears all but certain that it will take a much heavier toll of stupid people than intelligent people.

Whether or not the total numbers are big enough to affect the gene pool in any significant way is yet to be seen.

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2 hours ago, d'ranger said:

So all those healthy people have to manage to avoid all those unhealthy at risk ones?  I knew you wouldn't get it - the answer to going forward is testing and contact tracing which according to Trump and his Pandumbic Response team is: you're on your own. Which is why we are in the fucked up position we are in now. Try spending an hour watching that Frontline show I mentioned and you might be at least somewhat intelligent on the subject. Not holding my breath.

The same way they are avoiding them now.  Stay the fuck at home! 

And in no way have I said that more testing and contact tracing is not needed or important.  It absolutely is ONE aspect of opening the economy.  But it's also not the silver bullet here to protect the most vulnerable.  So what happens when a grandson gets tested and is clean, gets infected the next day by someone else and then visits grandma and grandpa.  Unless you're talking almost daily testing for near 100% of the population, unless the sick and elderly self-isolate, some are still going to die.  I'm sorry, but that is a fact of life.  Just like many will die and do die every year from the seasonal flu.  You can't stop everyone from dying.  It's physically impossible unless you keep the country on permanent lockdown forever.  

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5 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

The same way they are avoiding them now.  Stay the fuck at home! 

And in no way have I said that more testing and contact tracing is not needed or important.  It absolutely is ONE aspect of opening the economy.  But it's also not the silver bullet here to protect the most vulnerable.  So what happens when a grandson gets tested and is clean, gets infected the next day by someone else and then visits grandma and grandpa.  Unless you're talking almost daily testing for near 100% of the population, unless the sick and elderly self-isolate, some are still going to die.  I'm sorry, but that is a fact of life.  Just like many will die and do die every year from the seasonal flu.  You can't stop everyone from dying.  It's physically impossible unless you keep the country on permanent lockdown forever.  

Uh, it's the ONE aspect the US has failed miserably at and now every state is on their own.  It's not rocket science and when WA and CA wanted to ramp it up the test were not approved or available for some weeks at which point the horse has left the barn.  If you can't become informed you could just STFU - like that would ever happen.

edit:

In February testing and contact tracing would have been much easier, faster and more effective but no, we couldn't since Trump inherited a broken depleted system from Obama. 

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

RIF, clearly. You have no understanding of my position - which is - simply, we'll have to reopen soon. With current leadership, there's no way of avoiding the Italian/Spanish death tolls. But this idea that some podunk county can reopen unilaterally is foolishness of the highest degree.

RIF indeed.  You should try it.  Where the fuck did I mention a podunk county opening unilaterally?  I was very clear in saying we would have to reopen slowly and carefully.  

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18 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Uh, it's the ONE aspect the US has failed miserably at and now every state is on their own.  It's not rocket science and when WA and CA wanted to ramp it up the test were not approved or available for some weeks at which point the horse has left the barn.  If you can't become informed you could just STFU - like that would ever happen.

edit:

In February testing and contact tracing would have been much easier, faster and more effective but no, we couldn't since Trump inherited a broken depleted system from Obama. 

Fuck off.  I'm very well informed and have said many times here that our response to this was fucked from the start and it's not getting much better.  I would say the leadership from the top has been very bad, but that would imply there WAS some leadership to call bad.  There was a complete LACK of leadership.  So you are confusing me with someone who supports the POTUS on this.

But be that as it may, we have to deal with where we are now since we can't go back and undo all the fuckups.  I wish we could, but we can't.  But it's also true that we can't stay locked down for a considerable more amount of time without potentially causing even more damage.  So, what's the best way out of this given the current situation of testing and tracing?  We're going to have to do the best we can with what we have.  Or we can sit around and wring our hands all day long and wish what could have been and drive ourselves into the Great Depression part deux.  

As a wise boss I once worked for said repeatedly to his troops:  "Don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions".  

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40 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Fuck off.  I'm very well informed and have said many times here that our response to this was fucked from the start and it's not getting much better.  I would say the leadership from the top has been very bad, but that would imply there WAS some leadership to call bad.  There was a complete LACK of leadership.  So you are confusing me with someone who supports the POTUS on this.

But be that as it may, we have to deal with where we are now since we can't go back and undo all the fuckups.  I wish we could, but we can't.  But it's also true that we can't stay locked down for a considerable more amount of time without potentially causing even more damage.  So, what's the best way out of this given the current situation of testing and tracing?  We're going to have to do the best we can with what we have.  Or we can sit around and wring our hands all day long and wish what could have been and drive ourselves into the Great Depression part deux.  

As a wise boss I once worked for said repeatedly to his troops:  "Don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions".  

I knew you couldn't stfu - what would radically change is getting a federal program in place for national testing and tracing - using the Wartime Production Act that the moron in chief was bragging about. Stop telling states to ignore the guidelines that HE laid out.  Doing the best we can is just bullshit.  Oh yeah, not demoting and transferring the best guy we have because he sucks at ass kissing.  I am advocating for a national plan, I have no idea wtf you are going on about.

But some things never change.

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1 hour ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

...

As a wise boss I once worked for said repeatedly to his troops:  "Don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions".  

Actually, that's a stupid thing to say and contrary to good leadership.

If a subordinate already knows how to solve all the problems, why the fuck are -you- the boss?

- DSK

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46 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

Slacker. I got top .01%

You win!  Now live up to it, if you can.

We tried it using the OED.  Came up .22%.  Just more box checking 2nd 3rd and fourth definition mediocrity.  Or is it revenge by some mediocre grad student who can’t get another job?

Oh, I’m sorry!  I shouldn’t use big words!  
 

Fucking A, BJ, you’re wicked smart!  Fuck me!  You kick test ass!  

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5 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Cool. What's your plan?

Maintain social distancing and personal hygiene.  Be sensitive to other folks who seem ill and let them have the place.  Pretty much the same as any Flu season. 

I'll need to see what they do about restaurants.  No air travel which I pretty much hate anyway.  There is plenty of open outdoor space around here.  When I'm out shooting wildlife I seldom see others.

Avoid crowds.  FDA has approved a home test so I may take that from time to time although, you either get or you don't.

To be honest If you look at the potential population exposed vs. hospitalizations vs. deaths this isn't particulary frightening if it dies down in summer. 

The numbers are still all over the place right now.  https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6  shows about 4.5 million tests (which needs more detail, testing is too complex for one number), 840K confirmed cases (about 2%) and 46k deaths (5% of cases 0.1% of tested population and a third of them in one mismanaged cluster).  In spite of all the FUD the odds don't look too bad.

That's not enough to have me living in fear.

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8 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

Maintain social distancing and personal hygiene.  Be sensitive to other folks who seem ill and let them have the place.  Pretty much the same as any Flu season. 

I'll need to see what they do about restaurants.  No air travel which I pretty much hate anyway.  There is plenty of open outdoor space around here.  When I'm out shooting wildlife I seldom see others.

Avoid crowds.  FDA has approved a home test so I may take that from time to time although, you either get or you don't.

To be honest If you look at the potential population exposed vs. hospitalizations vs. deaths this isn't particulary frightening if it dies down in summer. 

The numbers are still all over the place right now.  https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6  shows about 4.5 million tests (which needs more detail, testing is too complex for one number), 840K confirmed cases (about 2%) and 46k deaths (5% of cases 0.1% of tested population and a third of them in one mismanaged cluster).  In spite of all the FUD the odds don't look too bad.

That's not enough to have me living in fear.

You need a cruise

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53 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

And one or two I had to deduce, but I suppose that counts since you have to know the other words to eliminate them as synonyms or antonyms. Just don't ask me to use them in a sentence...

 

Fucking Box checker...

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42 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

 When I'm out shooting wildlife I seldom see others.

That's because people who kill wild animals for fun are dying out quite rapidly.

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36 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

.12 which included an OH SHIT misclick

So, basically an order of magnitude less literate than the intelligent people here.

And not even very competent at taking tests it would appear.

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6 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

So, basically an order of magnitude less literate than the intelligent people here.

And not even very competent at taking tests it would appear.

Test takers ROCK, dude!

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43 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

So, basically an order of magnitude less literate than the intelligent people here.

And not even very competent at taking tests it would appear.

Damn white of them to put up with us dummies.....

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9 hours ago, Raz'r said:

You need a cruise

I've got a refundable deposit on one in November.  Fares are really cheap so I booked a suite with in room dining if desired.  That avoids the buffet and dining room problems.

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

I've got a refundable deposit on one in November.  Fares are really cheap so I booked a suite with in room dining if desired.  That avoids the buffet and dining room problems.

That's a really good idea - particularly the 'refundable' part.

 

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18 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:
18 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

florida first though, we can all agree on that, right?

Absolutely.  I think the big churches should lead the way.  

18 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

nice.  i knew there was a reason i liked ya.

Imams Overrule Pakistan’s Coronavirus Lockdown as Ramadan Nears

merlin_171824943_3edb3925-d860-40ea-9723

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/asia/pakistan-coronavirus-ramadan.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Hey @MR.CLEAN, looks like some churches around the world are taking your advice.  

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3 hours ago, cmilliken said:
4 hours ago, Saorsa said:

I've got a refundable deposit on one in November.  Fares are really cheap so I booked a suite with in room dining if desired.  That avoids the buffet and dining room problems.

That's a really good idea - particularly the 'refundable' part.

So, which is safer, do you think: Going on a cruise or going to a mega-church rally?

- DSK

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14 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

So, which is safer, do you think: Going on a cruise or going to a mega-church rally?

- DSK

Why choose?

Quote

The Caribbean: A Distinctly Christian Cruise Experience

There’s something about the turquoise sea, white beaches, and brilliant sunsets of the Caribbean that set the mind at ease. A Christian cruise among these unique islands and laid-back cultures may well be the perfect antidote to today’s fast paced world. And though they may share the same warm sun and soft sand, no two islands are the same. Snorkel in Jamaica, kayak Grand Cayman, or unwind at a secluded Bahamian beach. On a Christian travel experience in the warm waters of the Caribbean, God’s breathtaking brushstrokes are closer than ever before.

 

https://www.inspirationcruises.com/caribbean

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21 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

So, which is safer, do you think: Going on a cruise or going to a mega-church rally?

- DSK

I've never been to a mega-church.  I've seen a few minutes of TD Jakes here and there but I've never been to one.  Maybe next year ... but probably not  :)

 

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5 hours ago, Saorsa said:

I've got a refundable deposit on one in November.  Fares are really cheap so I booked a suite with in room dining if desired.  That avoids the buffet and dining room problems.

You might want to buy trip insurance, you know, for when the cruise line goes bankrupt?

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56 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

I've never been to a mega-church.  I've seen a few minutes of TD Jakes here and there but I've never been to one.  Maybe next year ... but probably not  :)

 

Used to work in like 10.  They’re big.

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2 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

So, which is safer, do you think: Going on a cruise or going to a mega-church rally?

- DSK

Two experiences I plan to avoid...religiously.

https://www.cracked.com/article_27525_5-reasons-to-let-wretched-cruise-industry-sink.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=postup

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6 hours ago, cmilliken said:

That's a really good idea - particularly the 'refundable' part.

 

It's like going away for a week to a hotel or resort but you can spend some time looking at far horizons.

We go in Nov/Dec to get a break from the commercial holidays.

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November would be a good time - that's supposedly when the second wave will be peaking.

Book a cabin for Idiotic Malarkey while you're at it.

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I saw a picture of a cruise ship.   It was 1000 foot long.      It held 5000 passengers.      That’s 5 people per foot!  It had 10 decks..    That’s still 1 person per two feet.    2 dimensional cruising must suck.   

I saw a picture of a Mac 26X,    It’s much roomier.   I’m told it has four dimensions (or modes or something).

 

 

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On 4/23/2020 at 3:51 PM, Blue Crab said:

A vacation with thousands of people? Yeah, no. 

Almost as much fun as a wedding with 250 of your closest friends in attendance.

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2 hours ago, Lark said:

I saw a picture of a cruise ship.   It was 1000 foot long.      It held 5000 passengers.      That’s 5 people per foot!  It had 10 decks..    That’s still 1 person per two feet.    2 dimensional cruising must suck.   

I saw a picture of a Mac 26X,    It’s much roomier.   I’m told it has four dimensions (or modes or something).

 

 

Fourth mode. Go for it.

 

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2 minutes ago, chum said:

What does that have to do with keeping score? Even if it did have something to do with it, you guys need to go back to statistics 101.

Looks like a scorecard of effective leadership to me. Now, you may not want to be on the top of this leaderboard, and Italy/Spain are vying for first place, but you know Trump is doing everything he can to get the US there.

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39 minutes ago, chum said:

Don’t know BC, but it was a ray of hope when we thought it was more widespread than thought. The way it’s shaping up now that we have the testing numbers coming out of NY and NJ it’s beginning to look like it’s more in the 3% range.

And, the flu is what percentage?

And, more importantly, the average US citizen knows 600 people.  Using 3%, which 18 people who you know are expendable?

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