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Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


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7 hours ago, cmilliken said:

Yea, understood.

I wish that it would allow for longer time scales - the four month window is far too short IMHO.   That's the problem with the 'hard lockdown' version - no one gets expose, no one get sick, but there's no cure/remedy either.  In four months, you get the play the same game with the same conditions unless you're willing to isolate travel or have some sort of 100% screening capability.

I would prefer if they could add at least a few such boundary conditions.  If there is a vaccine in 10/1/2020 or a treatment that reduces mortality by 50% on 8/15/20.  That would be more useful.

But it's ok.  Models are models.

 

This is the issue I have with hard lockdowns for a significantly longer period without a vaccine in sight.  You are just kicking the can down the road while destroying the economy in the process.  

I was listening to an NPR segment yesterday that says it would likely take around $4B to rapidly stand up a decent contact tracing system.  Many think it would happen overnight.  But nothing happens that fast here in the US.  We are far too decentralized (by design) and far too disorganized (on our best days) to be able to stand up that capability that rapidly.  Sadly, I think we're going to have to accept that the younger and healthy will likely get exposed at some point and the vast majority will have relatively minor symptoms and move on.  As I've said before, we need to focus ALL of our current efforts at protecting the most vulnerable and doing our best to quarantine them to reduce risk of exposure until we can find a vaccine to mitigate against the worst outcomes.  But keeping the country locked down for many more months, IMHO is simply not feasible or we will be doing much more harm overall to our society than just people dying of "The Sickness".  

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17 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

Hmm...if you keep "Current restrictions" for four weeks, then "minimal restrictions" for 12, the numbers are appalling.

Keeping "Current restrictions" for eight weeks cuts the numbers from ~1,8M dead to around 90,000.

So...Trump wants everything open in two weeks, right?

Wrong. 1 week

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17 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

Hmm...if you keep "Current restrictions" for four weeks, then "minimal restrictions" for 12, the numbers are appalling.

Keeping "Current restrictions" for eight weeks cuts the numbers from ~1,8M dead to around 90,000.

So...Trump wants everything open in two weeks, right?

Say Trumpaloos. 

Is 1.8M enough lower than 2.2M that Trump can still claim success?

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1 minute ago, Ishmael said:

Anything less than total obliteration will be claimed as success.

I think as long as Trump himself is still alive, any number of dead Americans doesn't really matter. Too the Trumpaloos that is.

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20 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

That's not a real question is it?

Yeah, you're probably right. Of course that would be a great success. Just ask Jared.

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There is simply no way to quarantine those at risk while everything else goes back to normal. First, we don't know who is really at risk, we don't understand the virus well enough yet. Second, the numbers of those at risk are between 20-60% of the population, so not a small number. Third, those at risk are deeply connected to those who are not, and are dependent on the same systems as everyone for basic needs, so those systems would need to be recreated for everyone at risk or else we would just be consciously deciding to let a significant number of people die out of convenience, while pretending we are doing something to save them. Lastly, I continue to see implied in these quarantine those at risk ideas the notion that those at risk are all retired and elderly, so not crucial to the running of society when it "opens up" again. That is simply not true in any meaningful way. Those at risk are overrepresented in the retired category, but they are also significantly represented in the CEO, professional, working parent, primary earner categories. So figure that one out while you are at it. How do you manage the situation of a dentist who is also the primary earner for his household and who has young kids, while also being in his fifties with high blood pressure and diabetes? 

If there was a less disruptive way to immediately deal with a global pandemic, countries would have taken that option. There is not a better way. We screwed the pooch by optimizing our healthcare system for profits, which means there is no excess capacity in the system, and the only way to deal with something like this is dramatic measures to flatten the curve. Too much faith in capitalism got us into this, the tools which got us into the mess will not get us out of it. 

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:
19 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

Hmm...if you keep "Current restrictions" for four weeks, then "minimal restrictions" for 12, the numbers are appalling.

Keeping "Current restrictions" for eight weeks cuts the numbers from ~1,8M dead to around 90,000.

So...Trump wants everything open in two weeks, right?

Wrong. 1 week

I was being charitable...

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34 minutes ago, LenP said:

There is simply no way to quarantine those at risk while everything else goes back to normal. First, we don't know who is really at risk, we don't understand the virus well enough yet. Second, the numbers of those at risk are between 20-60% of the population, so not a small number. Third, those at risk are deeply connected to those who are not, and are dependent on the same systems as everyone for basic needs, so those systems would need to be recreated for everyone at risk or else we would just be consciously deciding to let a significant number of people die out of convenience, while pretending we are doing something to save them. Lastly, I continue to see implied in these quarantine those at risk ideas the notion that those at risk are all retired and elderly, so not crucial to the running of society when it "opens up" again. That is simply not true in any meaningful way. Those at risk are overrepresented in the retired category, but they are also significantly represented in the CEO, professional, working parent, primary earner categories. So figure that one out while you are at it. How do you manage the situation of a dentist who is also the primary earner for his household and who has young kids, while also being in his fifties with high blood pressure and diabetes? 

If there was a less disruptive way to immediately deal with a global pandemic, countries would have taken that option. There is not a better way. We screwed the pooch by optimizing our healthcare system for profits, which means there is no excess capacity in the system, and the only way to deal with something like this is dramatic measures to flatten the curve. Too much faith in capitalism got us into this, the tools which got us into the mess will not get us out of it. 

^ Nailed it ^

The one and only little comment I have on the above.... it's not "capitalism" that the USA is currently exerting too much faith in; it's a perverse form of predatory, dysfunctional capitalism.

"Capitalism" covers a really wide range of economic systems with the basis of allocating goods by market and reward for applying concentrated wealth to solve big problems. The USA has stumbled down into a morass of crony-driven winner-take-all capitalism, where the greatest concentration of capital is focused on using the government to stifle markets.

The problem that the USA's health care system has fallen into this same morass is one that's been talked about and worked on since the 1930s, in push-pull fashion, but has always been subject to the same harpy's seduction as the rest of our economy.

It's been killing us by the millions for years. Now it's killed tens of thousands in the blink of an eye and the problem is both more acute and a lot more obvious to all.

Where we go with it from here, that's NOT obvious. And the harpies are still screeching.

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Blue Crab said:
1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

Say Trumpaloos. 

Is 1.8M enough lower than 2.2M that Trump can still claim success?

That's not a real question is it?

Not really. I honestly think Trump can get ANY outcome and some of the hard core stupids will defend his "perfect" response and blame Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and the Derp State for anything they don't like.

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9 hours ago, cmilliken said:

I wish that it would allow for longer time scales - the four month window is far too short IMHO.   That's the problem with the 'hard lockdown' version - no one gets expose, no one get sick, but there's no cure/remedy either.  In four months, you get the play the same game with the same conditions unless you're willing to isolate travel or have some sort of 100% screening capability.

 

2 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

This is the issue I have with hard lockdowns for a significantly longer period without a vaccine in sight.  You are just kicking the can down the road while destroying the economy in the process.  

I haven't played with it, but... that doesn't make a lot of sense?  If you have a hard lockdown, for even two months, all of the existing cases resolve, one way or another.  No lockdown's so hard as to be absolute, so you'll have some active cases to get the transmission ball rolling again, but... you should be starting from a lower number, and a slightly slower transmission rate (since some of the population will have become immune)?

 

55 minutes ago, LenP said:

We screwed the pooch by optimizing our healthcare system for profits, which means there is no excess capacity in the system

Much as I'm a devoted advocate for single-payer, I'm not sure those are linked in any meaningful way.  We actually have more surplus capacity, in a lot of things (critical care beds comes to mind) than a lot / most of the less capitalistic countries.  What we lack, that most of them have, is a coherent public health system.  Our resources, while plentiful, don't get allocated in the most efficient or useful way: the spectacle of various State & Federal agencies bidding against each other for PPE, for example... 

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29 minutes ago, frenchie said:
2 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

This is the issue I have with hard lockdowns for a significantly longer period without a vaccine in sight.  You are just kicking the can down the road while destroying the economy in the process.  

I haven't played with it, but... that doesn't make a lot of sense?  If you have a hard lockdown, for even two months, all of the existing cases resolve, one way or another.  No lockdown's so hard as to be absolute, so you'll have some active cases to get the transmission ball rolling again, but... you should be starting from a lower number, and a slightly slower transmission rate (since some of the population will have become immune)?

This has worked in New Zealand.

Yes, it's smaller and it's an island.

But the point is if you shut things down hard, the spreading stops. A shut down is a shut down. Close the borders, stop people moving around unless absolutely necessary. Minimize contact outside your "bubble" - your immediate household.

 

NZ was at 100 confirmed cases when they shut things down. Equivalent to about 6,600 in the US (multiply by 330/5 = 66)

Yesterday there were two (2) new cases. There are six (6) people in the hospital still. Total cases is under 1,500 still.

Note that even shutting down at 100 cases, the carry through turned up 15X the number overall. It's not and immediate cessation of new cases, and it takes more time than most Americans have patience for.

The total of 19 dead is mostly from two nursing home clusters, not general population transmission.

 

Having a government concerned about all of it's people instead of it's corporations, billionaires, and wealth makes a big difference in the will to do this. The Kiwis trust their government, and the government has earned it.

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4 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

This has worked in New Zealand.

Yes, it's smaller and it's an island.

But the point is if you shut things down hard, the spreading stops. A shut down is a shut down. Close the borders, stop people moving around unless absolutely necessary. Minimize contact outside your "bubble" - your immediate household.

 

NZ was at 100 confirmed cases when they shut things down. Equivalent to about 6,600 in the US (multiply by 330/5 = 66)

Yesterday there were two (2) new cases. There are six (6) people in the hospital still. Total cases is under 1,500 still.

Note that even shutting down at 100 cases, the carry through turned up 15X the number overall. It's not and immediate cessation of new cases, and it takes more time than most Americans have patience for.

The total of 19 dead is mostly from two nursing home clusters, not general population transmission.

 

Having a government concerned about all of it's people instead of it's corporations, billionaires, and wealth makes a big difference in the will to do this. The Kiwis trust their government, and the government has earned it.

The Best Americans are entitled to their preferential treatment. They earned it the hard way. 

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44 minutes ago, frenchie said:

 

...

 

Much as I'm a devoted advocate for single-payer, I'm not sure those are linked in any meaningful way.  We actually have more surplus capacity, in a lot of things (critical care beds comes to mind) than a lot / most of the less capitalistic countries.  What we lack, that most of them have, is a coherent public health system.  Our resources, while plentiful, don't get allocated in the most efficient or useful way: the spectacle of various State & Federal agencies bidding against each other for PPE, for example... 

Empty hospital beds are expensive. The figures I've seen show the US as having less hospital capacity per capita than the other G7 and developed countries.

Spot on about the lack of a coherent public health system.

The Feds bidding against the states is pure Trumpublican predatory capitalism. And please note, the Feds have more & bigger guns, when push comes to shove

- DSK

 

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1 hour ago, frenchie said:

I haven't played with it, but... that doesn't make a lot of sense?  If you have a hard lockdown, for even two months, all of the existing cases resolve, one way or another.  No lockdown's so hard as to be absolute, so you'll have some active cases to get the transmission ball rolling again, but... you should be starting from a lower number, and a slightly slower transmission rate (since some of the population will have become immune)?

The problem is the infamous 'next wave'. 

Take it as accepted that we will not have a tsunami of patients and that the health care system can address every new case that happens.  We're only talking about the 'normal' course of the virus.

We believe that the coronavirus is transmitted by asymptomatic carriers.  We have a general lack of testing and an acute lack of 'quick' testing.   Therefore, we're not going to be able to detect state to state transmission unless we also forbid state to state transfer. 

The hard lock down work because they allow the virus to die out but ultimately you'll keep re-infecting until you eventually come up with either an inoculation or a cure.

The model, as presented, doesn't factor any of that in.  It's just a 'exponential' growth model playing with three values that terminates after one cycle.  It's fine for what it is but there's a lot better models - 3Blue1Brown did several videos on it that were much more effective illustration of the problem.

 

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41 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Or central quarantine of suspected cases post lockdown. I mean... there are other country’s doing this. It shouldn’t be a shocker. If it is, reappraise your info stream.

all in all this thread is a shining example of the tedious failure of US political “debate”. We refuse to acknowledge other ways of doing things and just fatalistically accept failure for “reasons” and so pretend shit just doesn’t exist

One of the reasons given for the Level 3 requirement to keep your social "bubbles" small still is contact tracing, and by extension the ability to isolate suspected cases and a carriers.

Tradesman are required to check in at marinas, for example, so that contact tracing will be facilitate. You can get work done on your boat if you get off it when the tradesman is there and he checks in.

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1 hour ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Or central quarantine of suspected cases post lockdown. I mean... there are other country’s doing this. It shouldn’t be a shocker. If it is, reappraise your info stream.

all in all this thread is a shining example of the tedious failure of US political “debate”. We refuse to acknowledge other ways of doing things and just fatalistically accept failure for “reasons” and so pretend shit just doesn’t exist

This is the economic incentive for many not to seek a formal diagnosis.   Claim food poisoning so the shop or car isn’t shut down as long.   The grey economy and those with side gigs only slowed with government money.    A friend drove to another city for a day’s work since unemployment has yet to arrive after a month.       
Many will be forced by necessity to circumvent the system proposed for Ohio.    Others will by greed.  I could imagine a devious person sending an infected customer to the competition, expecting a mild or no illness but the competing hair stylest sent home for two weeks.  

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29 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

One of the reasons given for the Level 3 requirement to keep your social "bubbles" small still is contact tracing, and by extension the ability to isolate suspected cases and a carriers.

Tradesman are required to check in at marinas, for example, so that contact tracing will be facilitate. You can get work done on your boat if you get off it when the tradesman is there and he checks in.

If the Germans are correct and their first community case occurred from a salt shaker, do we make you stay off the boat for a couple days after the repair?    Contact tracing assumes all spreaders became symptomatic within a couple days so the government guys can find and quarantine the contacts before they start spreading it themselves.    Do you have evidence everyone who spreads it gets sick?

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12 minutes ago, Lark said:

If the Germans are correct and their first community case occurred from a salt shaker, do we make you stay off the boat for a couple days after the repair?    Contact tracing assumes all spreaders became symptomatic within a couple days so the government guys can find and quarantine the contacts before they start spreading it themselves.    Do you have evidence everyone who spreads it gets sick?

My understanding is that it's 7 to 12 days after infection to the onset of symptoms. And symptoms may be mild enough to not register as an illness needing treatment. And the person is most contagious before onset of symptoms.

It's this delay that makes it so difficult to keep a lid on.

- DSK

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3 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Empty hospital beds are expensive. The figures I've seen show the US as having less hospital capacity per capita than the other G7 and developed countries.

Spot on about the lack of a coherent public health system.

The Feds bidding against the states is pure Trumpublican predatory capitalism. And please note, the Feds have more & bigger guns, when push comes to shove

- DSK

 

Public hospitals had closed before this happened, just part of the normal demographic shift.

When I was a kid, public schools all over my city had closed, there weren't enough students anymore to justify keeping so many of them open once the wave of Baby Boomers had graduated.

And in the case of hospitals, the capacity wasn't needed, and there was a plague of open beds throughout the industry. The Boomers weren't really old enough to need extensive hospitalization, and the generation before them has been dying off. So now we'll likely see a new wave of hospitals opening up again over the next ten years. It will be a good time to be in that business.

If nothing else, SARS-CoV-2 is going to be good for the healthcare business. But I doubt that it's going to be good for the boat business.

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54 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Public hospitals had closed before this happened, just part of the normal demographic shift.

No, it was part of the privatisation of US health care.  The reason why the response to COVID-19 has been so 4th world and so many are dying.

"Extensive research, herein reviewed, shows that for-profit health institutions provide inferior care at inflated prices. The U.S. experience also demonstrates that market mechanisms nurture unscrupulous medical businesses and undermine medical institutions unable or unwilling to tailor care to profitability. The commercialization of care in the United States has driven up costs by diverting money to profits and by fueling a vast increase in management and financial bureaucracy, which now consumes 31 percent of total health spending. "

55 minutes ago, mikewof said:

If nothing else, SARS-CoV-2 is going to be good for the healthcare business.

Awesome Mikey, that's all you masters are interested in anyway,  Money.

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12 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Empty hospital beds are expensive. The figures I've seen show the US as having less hospital capacity per capita than the other G7 and developed countries.

I did.  Hospital beds, yeah, we lag  -  but critical care beds, we lead.  Lotta profit in those.

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37 minutes ago, frenchie said:

I did.  Hospital beds, yeah, we lag  -  but critical care beds, we lead.  Lotta profit in those.

Critical Care Beds are one of those quirky numbers - sort of like 'cause of death'.  Seems obvious - not always.   I have some interest in Massachusetts (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/massachusetts) so I've been watching that one.

All of those bed numbers are wrong.  From what I can tell, they've never been close to right, even by accident.  The 277 ICU number was always low by at least a factor of 5 and is now low by AT LEAST a factor of 10 (there are over 2800 now) with a surge capacity up around 4500.  Mass, in particular, flexes beds and converts them from one 'specialty' to a different 'specialty' depending on demand.  Its like asking someone 'how many cats to you have' and they answer 'Well, I have 10 that I don't know the breed but I also have 12 Persians, 7 Siamese, 5 American short hairs.." - "Great, I'll put you down for 10 Cats." - "Uh, Ok?" 

Even the "hospital beds" are significantly off (by at least 200%).  At the bottom is the Governor's slide from early April.  The 'All Beds in the State" estimate is from 2/25, before the surge.  This is where America's crappy public/private health care system again, interferes with the numbers.  There's a significant number of 'private' beds that only sometimes get counted.  Surveys are voluntary and administrators are busy.  The beds exist - everyone knows that - and damn straight if they aren't going to get used if necessary.  But they're not 'available' until they're required to be available and then they magically appear.  I know it's true in Arizona and I know it's true in Massachusetts (the only two places I cared to look).  I don't know about the other 48 states but I have to believe this is a universal issue.

I'm sure there are mostly accurate numbers somewhere.  I'm not sure where, but my guess is the governors have much better numbers now than they did 3 months ago.

 

 

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Watching this train wreck is not "fun".

Maybe it's just that I'm not understanding but it seems to me that while new cases and deaths are dropping in NY and NJ, they are increasing in Texas and Georgia just as any ordinarily intelligent person would predict as a virus spreads or rolls over a country.

I really don't understand how Trump and some governors can seemingly think this is in any way contained.

You are not flattening the curve nationally, the gradient is steadily rising without any apparent decrease, you're still getting a slow increase of cases and deaths per day most days since late march.

How can anyone with the power , republican or democrat look at these charts and not demand new national leadership. NOW!

Now is the time to tighten distancing for a big push before people start getting CV19 restriction fatigue.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;

S25 the Madman and Pence before the kill 10% of the country, though I really, genuinely, do fear it's too late.

I just posted the big speech from Henry V but I wouldn't want to be accused of over reacting :angry:

 

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Just now, Shortforbob said:

Watching this train wreck is not "fun".

Maybe it's just that I'm not understanding but it seems to me that while new cases and deaths are dropping in NY and NJ, they are increasing in Texas and Georgia just as any ordinarily intelligent person would predict as a virus spreads or rolls over a country.

I really don't understand how Trump and some governors can seemingly think this is in any way contained.

You are not flattening the curve nationally, the gradient is steadily rising without any apparent decrease, you're still getting a slow increase of cases and deaths per day most days since late march.

How can anyone with the power , republican or democrat look at these charts and not demand new national leadership. NOW!

S25 the Madman and Pence before the kill 10% of the country, though I really, genuinely, do fear it's too late.

 

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They’re not rising in FL! The FL Dept of Health muscled County coroners to stop listing coronavirus as a cause of death. What good does not testing do if some pencil-necked, fact-based liberal science hooey geek is just going to report how many bodies drop. 
 

In FL we use a two-pronged approach. Don’t test, don’t count. 

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2 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

They’re not rising in FL! The FL Dept of Health muscled County coroners to stop listing coronavirus as a cause of death. What good does not testing do if some pencil-necked, fact-based liberal science hooey geek is just going to report how many bodies drop. 
 

In FL we use a two-pronged approach. Don’t test, don’t count. 

I feel your despair.

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2 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

I feel your despair.

I don’t do despair. There may be a lot of people in my area who think it’s a hoax but I am not among them. Our cases have gone up four fold this month, with just a bit of testing. Body count stayed at one. They aren’t reporting, that’s all. 
 

partial reopening tomorrow I think. I’ll continue to work from home. I crank out a lot of cardboard and packaging waste, but such is life. Catching it would ruin my day. Isolating won’t, especially when surrounded by so many hoaxers. 

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4 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I don’t do despair. There may be a lot of people in my area who think it’s a hoax but I am not among them. Our cases have gone up four fold this month, with just a bit of testing. Body count stayed at one. They aren’t reporting, that’s all. 
 

partial reopening tomorrow I think. I’ll continue to work from home. I crank out a lot of cardboard and packaging waste, but such is life. Catching it would ruin my day. Isolating won’t, especially when surrounded by so many hoaxers. 

Tough guy :)

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2 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Tough guy :)

Not really. I have family on the front lines. I just made the choice a few years back to get out of the city and into a small town. I’m used to going a while without seeing people. I have enough projects to keep me busy for life, between rebuilding a 1955 house and owning too many boats. 
 

I try not to get too up on life’s peaks or down in the valleys. That’s not tough, it’s just rational. 

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2 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Not really. I have family on the front lines. I just made the choice a few years back to get out of the city and into a small town. I’m used to going a while without seeing people. I have enough projects to keep me busy for life, between rebuilding a 1955 house and owning too many boats. 
 

I try not to get too up on life’s peaks or down in the valleys. That’s not tough, it’s just rational. 

Yeah, all people like us have to worry about is the economic fallout. 

Going in hard was the right thing to do, staying in hard is still the right thing to do. we've beaten that curve flat.

But I might be jobless on Monday. It's been worth it.

What I don't get is how people are so stupid to throw away the gains made for nothing. Tragic.

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1 minute ago, Shortforbob said:

Yeah, all people like us have to worry about is the economic fallout. 

Going in hard was the right thing to do, staying in hard is still the right thing to do. we've beaten that curve flat.

But I might be jobless on Monday. It's been worth it.

What I don't get is how people are so stupid to throw away the gains made for nothing. Tragic.

Florida was late to close and will be early to open. Our Gov is a Trumppuppet. Our unemployment system had been trashed by his predecessor, so it immediately failed. That means a hell of a lot of broke hungry people need help right now. 
 

I am thankful to not be among them, and that I can continue to avoid contact for the most part, but I recognize their pain and know that we cannot let them starve forever. 

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2 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Florida was late to close and will be early to open. Our Gov is a Trumppuppet. Our unemployment system had been trashed by his predecessor, so it immediately failed. That means a hell of a lot of broke hungry people need help right now. 
 

I am thankful to not be among them, and that I can continue to avoid contact for the most part, but I recognize their pain and know that we cannot let them starve forever. 

I think that for most people this has been kind of surreal. They read the news and notice small changes but life goes on.

I pity their awakening, and fear their reactions .

As I said we have not really been hit hard like some places in the USA. But our CEO just made an announcement. and this will be relevant to any location . The economic predictions into the next financial year are really grim. with Councils not raising revenue ..parking FFS.  hire of venues, all those things where the local government raises money to pay for services that employ thousands are being hit into next financial year , hit hard.

If local government has to slash services by 50%. thats a lot of jobs going out of the economy. 

The alternative? well I wouldn't see Libraries re opening for quids. (too many old people, homeless and physically vulnerable people to risk it)

Opening up too early won't make this any better for anyone. Just as tragic with a lot more dead people.

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2 hours ago, cmilliken said:

Critical Care Beds are one of those quirky numbers - sort of like 'cause of death'.  Seems obvious - not always.   I have some interest in Massachusetts (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/massachusetts) so I've been watching that one.

All of those bed numbers are wrong.  From what I can tell, they've never been close to right, even by accident.  The 277 ICU number was always low by at least a factor of 5 and is now low by AT LEAST a factor of 10 (there are over 2800 now) with a surge capacity up around 4500.  Mass, in particular, flexes beds and converts them from one 'specialty' to a different 'specialty' depending on demand.  Its like asking someone 'how many cats to you have' and they answer 'Well, I have 10 that I don't know the breed but I also have 12 Persians, 7 Siamese, 5 American short hairs.." - "Great, I'll put you down for 10 Cats." - "Uh, Ok?" 

Even the "hospital beds" are significantly off (by at least 200%).  At the bottom is the Governor's slide from early April.  The 'All Beds in the State" estimate is from 2/25, before the surge.  This is where America's crappy public/private health care system again, interferes with the numbers.  There's a significant number of 'private' beds that only sometimes get counted.  Surveys are voluntary and administrators are busy.  The beds exist - everyone knows that - and damn straight if they aren't going to get used if necessary.  But they're not 'available' until they're required to be available and then they magically appear.  I know it's true in Arizona and I know it's true in Massachusetts (the only two places I cared to look).  I don't know about the other 48 states but I have to believe this is a universal issue.

I'm sure there are mostly accurate numbers somewhere.  I'm not sure where, but my guess is the governors have much better numbers now than they did 3 months ago.

 

 

image.png.62ece5bc472010a131a67bb534f91ec5.png

 

 

Baker.thumb.png.4afac2e7acd9dc63ee8eb49032595f55.png

 

I wondered why the Javits center and field hospitals weren't used more for COVID-19 and leave the regular hospitals for the non-COVID requirements.

When everyone in a 'ward' has the same contagious disease already the problem of cross-infection which drives most ICU processes are minimized.  The requirement, for example, to change gowns every time you leave a patient room is virtually eliminated and conserves PPE.

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4 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

I wondered why the Javits center and field hospitals weren't used more for COVID-19 and leave the regular hospitals for the non-COVID requirements.

When everyone in a 'ward' has the same contagious disease already the problem of cross-infection which drives most ICU processes are minimized.  The requirement, for example, to change gowns every time you leave a patient room is virtually eliminated and conserves PPE.

Because you have no leadership?

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NASCAR to resume season May 17 with seven races in 10 days

https://apnews.com/ee3b24ad2199d836ac7d477a5d62d550

 

lol, good luck...

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9 hours ago, Saorsa said:

I wondered why the Javits center and field hospitals weren't used more for COVID-19 and leave the regular hospitals for the non-COVID requirements.

When everyone in a 'ward' has the same contagious disease already the problem of cross-infection which drives most ICU processes are minimized.  The requirement, for example, to change gowns every time you leave a patient room is virtually eliminated and conserves PPE.

Based on the US ship COMFORT, I think the military was risk adverse and didn’t want to risk personal getting sick at the rate civilians were.  Otherwise your solution is so logical even politicians could have figured it out.    It had the added benefit of shielding hospitals from uninsured COVID patients.

The other problem was lack of full time medical personal in the military,   Too much is outsourced or done by reservists with day jobs in the same field.    Since doctors and nurses don’t work for a city hospital but a corporate entity, there is no way to pull the furloughed personal and assign them to essential duty.    

There is a lot we should look to change before the next one,   It could be more virulent.   

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25 minutes ago, Lark said:

Based on the US ship COMFORT, I think the military was risk adverse and didn’t want to risk personal getting sick at the rate civilians were.  Otherwise your solution is so logical even politicians could have figured it out.    It had the added benefit of shielding hospitals from uninsured COVID patients.

The other problem was lack of full time medical personal in the military,   Too much is outsourced or done by reservists with day jobs in the same field.    Since doctors and nurses don’t work for a city hospital but a corporate entity, there is no way to pull the furloughed personal and assign them to essential duty.    

There is a lot we should look to change before the next one,   It could be more virulent.   

And the President then could be even less capable than Trump, although that is hard to imagine.

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31 minutes ago, Lark said:

Based on the US ship COMFORT, I think the military was risk adverse and didn’t want to risk personal getting sick at the rate civilians were.  Otherwise your solution is so logical even politicians could have figured it out.    It had the added benefit of shielding hospitals from uninsured COVID patients.

The other problem was lack of full time medical personal in the military,   Too much is outsourced or done by reservists with day jobs in the same field.    Since doctors and nurses don’t work for a city hospital but a corporate entity, there is no way to pull the furloughed personal and assign them to essential duty.    

There is a lot we should look to change before the next one,   It could be more virulent.   

 

I read Mikey's other thread and a couple others and I think one of the big issues - relative to care - is that COVID doesn't have a very good protocols.  The 'instructions' that you follow to treat the illness aren't well established, don't work that well, and require a level of sophistication that just isn't a good match for 'triage' care doctors.  I read a description once that said "military" doctors are pretty much trained pretty much to  "Stabilize trauma in otherwise healthy young men" - which makes them uniquely UNQUALIFIED to treat geriatric patients suffering from an acute respiratory disease.  They can certainly take care of broken bones, gunshots, crushing injuries, etc.. but COVID?  Not so much.

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19 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

 

I read Mikey's other thread and a couple others and I think one of the big issues - relative to care - is that COVID doesn't have a very good protocols.  The 'instructions' that you follow to treat the illness aren't well established, don't work that well, and require a level of sophistication that just isn't a good match for 'triage' care doctors.  I read a description once that said "military" doctors are pretty much trained pretty much to  "Stabilize trauma in otherwise healthy young men" - which makes them uniquely UNQUALIFIED to treat geriatric patients suffering from an acute respiratory disease.  They can certainly take care of broken bones, gunshots, crushing injuries, etc.. but COVID?  Not so much.

Legitimate critique.   Doctors are so specialized significant retraining and gear shifting would be necessary.   They are intelligent people.   Lack of protocols cuts both ways,    If pulmonologists and geriatric specialists are winging it and being forced to aband old assumptions, their advantage is small.   We know how hard it is to abandon what always worked in the past.   There would still be a learning curve, but which is worse:   Sleep deprived people that shouldn’t be allowed to operate a car to drive home struggling with high rates of self infection, or people forced to adapt outside of their comfort zone with a handful of core people to straighten them out as they make inevitable mistakes?    The field hospitals could be moved from hot spot to hot spot as needed.   Any immunity acquired would be a huge advantage for the mobile teams.   

Edit.   The doctors don’t push the buttons anyway,   Technicians and nurses would need to be retrained on the different models of monitors, IV pumps and respirators as emergency stockpiles are distributed.    The same is true of lab requisitions and other logistics.   

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12 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Not really. I have family on the front lines. I just made the choice a few years back to get out of the city and into a small town. I’m used to going a while without seeing people. I have enough projects to keep me busy for life, between rebuilding a 1955 house and owning too many boats. 
 

I try not to get too up on life’s peaks or down in the valleys. That’s not tough, it’s just rational. 

Liar.

 

 

(You can't own too many boats.)

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12 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

I think that for most people this has been kind of surreal. They read the news and notice small changes but life goes on.

I pity their awakening, and fear their reactions .

As I said we have not really been hit hard like some places in the USA. But our CEO just made an announcement. and this will be relevant to any location . The economic predictions into the next financial year are really grim. with Councils not raising revenue ..parking FFS.  hire of venues, all those things where the local government raises money to pay for services that employ thousands are being hit into next financial year , hit hard.

If local government has to slash services by 50%. thats a lot of jobs going out of the economy. 

The alternative? well I wouldn't see Libraries re opening for quids. (too many old people, homeless and physically vulnerable people to risk it)

Opening up too early won't make this any better for anyone. Just as tragic with a lot more dead people.

In the US, that's what will happen at the state and local level. Now, the Republicans will cheer as they wanted to kill the beast anyway, but I liked having nice streets.

 

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1 minute ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I have three. Boats, not wives. Constant projects, despite small boats. 

No no no

Aquatic Vehicularious Polymorbus Syndrome is measured in Feet not Units(or metric, if you're a commie). Multihulls are double - or triple!

<25, Come on man, let's go boating!

<50, which boat today honey?

<75, Hmmm, That ones starting to look neglected

<100, ok, where's the main for the Laser?

>100, intervention needed

I'm in recovery, 73 linear feet, 73.5 from the measurement cert (the 43 is really 43.5), I was able to sell a nice little Hobie last fall that got me on the road to recovery.

(Paddleboards not included)

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5 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

No no no

Aquatic Vehicularious Polymorbus Syndrome is measured in Feet not Units(or metric, if you're a commie). Multihulls are double - or triple!

<25, Come on man, let's go boating!

<50, which boat today honey?

<75, Hmmm, That ones starting to look neglected

<100, ok, where's the main for the Laser?

>100, intervention needed

I'm in recovery, 73 linear feet, 73.5 from the measurement cert (the 43 is really 43.5), I was able to sell a nice little Hobie last fall that got me on the road to recovery.

(Paddleboards not included)

79. 58 sail, 21 power. The latter gets the use these days (prior to CV19)   Lots of RC work here to build the fleet. 

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1 hour ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

79. 58 sail, 21 power. The latter gets the use these days (prior to CV19)   Lots of RC work here to build the fleet. 

I maxed out at 108 a few years ago.

Currently just 30.

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6 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

I maxed out at 108 a few years ago.

Currently just 30.

I just bought 15 pontoon floats 2m x 600mm x 600mm. NFI precisely what I'm going to build with all of them but something will occur to me. Got a 6 tonne flotation budget to work within.

FKT

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6 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

I just bought 15 pontoon floats 2m x 600mm x 600mm. NFI precisely what I'm going to build with all of them but something will occur to me. Got a 6 tonne flotation budget to work within.

FKT

600mm??  That's a pretty narrow pontoon.  

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I thought , probably as many do , that Trump wants the meat packing plants open for the good of Americans WRONG! The man is a fucking scumbag

 

Trump push to keep meatpacking plants open comes as pork producers profit from China trade deal

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Count Paris, TX was a town chomping at the bit to reopen, until this happened, oops Motto 'We're Dying To Restart The Economy"

PARIS, Texas (AP) – Barely a week ago, rural Lamar County could make a pretty good argument for Texas’ reopening on Friday.

Governor Abbott has long touted Texas’ rural communities as among those least impacted by the pandemic, but just days after Phase 1 reopening plans were announced last Monday, an outbreak has hit affected 65 residents of a nursing home in the rural county near the Oklahoma border. One has died.

 

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10 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

600mm??  That's a pretty narrow pontoon.  

It's a *float*. You bolt a whole pile of them together to form a floating structure. Got 30mm holes in each corner for this reason. They're widely used by the fish farms to make catwalks, work platforms  etc. That's where these came from in fact.

I'm thinking of something like a biggish work platform/barge. Load capacity in the 4 tonne range. Draft maybe 150mm unloaded, 400mm fully loaded. We'll see what my boredom & creativity comes up with. Got to do some calcs based on weight of structure, see how much buoyancy I have to play with.

Delivery tomorrow, hopefully.

FKT

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11 hours ago, Not for nothing said:

I thought , probably as many do , that Trump wants the meat packing plants open for the good of Americans WRONG! The man is a fucking scumbag

 

I thought he wanted to reopen them because his base is screaming

Hamberderers!!

 

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10 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

 

If normal, regular deaths are being written up as covid-19?  You need to explain why the normal regular deaths are 4 to 6 times what they normally are this time of year.

You moronic, vile, sack of shit.

 

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1 minute ago, frenchie said:

If normal, regular deaths are being written up as covid-19?  You need to explain why the normal regular deaths are 4 to 6 times what they normally are this time of year.

You moronic, vile, sack of shit.

 

Bravo^2 prefers to live in a fact-free reality.

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Americans grade Trump’s COVID-19 response worse than every state governor, poll finds

Quote

 

Americans in all 50 states say their governor is doing a better job responding to the coronavirus pandemic than President Donald Trump, according to a new poll.

The survey found Trump had a wide disparity in approval even in some states with Republican governors.

 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242416776.html

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2 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

I feel very sorry for you. Spending your days pouring over brain destroying rubbish.

Read a good book, learn a language, study Russian History, paint the shithouse blue..Or something. What a waste of the rest of your life.

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3 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:
8 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

I feel very sorry for you. Spending your days pouring over brain destroying rubbish.

Read a good book, learn a language, study Russian History, paint the shithouse blue..Or something. What a waste of the rest of your life.

He is relying on the Daily Wire to tell him what to think.  And, let's be honest - this is BravoBravo - he just repeats what others say, in memes of copy-and-paste.

People lacking in intellectual horsepower are eager to let others make up their minds for them.

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41 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

Let's try this again, shitbag:

- over 18,000 deaths in NYC, March 11th to April 13

- normally would be about 4,000.

explain.

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9 hours ago, Mid said:

Americans grade Trump’s COVID-19 response worse than every state governor, poll finds

Quote

Americans in all 50 states say their governor is doing a better job responding to the coronavirus pandemic than President Donald Trump, according to a new poll.

The survey found Trump had a wide disparity in approval even in some states with Republican governors.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242416776.html

Worse than that idiot in Georgia?

OUCH - that's gotta hurt.

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1 hour ago, SloopJonB said:

Worse than that idiot in Georgia?

OUCH - that's gotta hurt.

Well, the Guv in Florida has decided that the state is no longer going to release Covid-19 case or death information. 

What you don't know can't hurt  you, right?  Open those beaches!!!! 

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15 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

Well, the Guv in Florida has decided that the state is no longer going to release Covid-19 case or death information. 

What you don't know can't hurt  you, right?  Open those beaches!!!! 

It’s the 2020 version of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. 
Don’t Test, Don’t Tell. 
 

It only kills democRATS, don’t worry. 

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Trump is having a big economic pow wow at Camp David with an allstar cast including Jared & Ivanka and the new press secretary.  The plan? Get people back to work, another month of shutdown will cripple the economy and put the nails in Trumps election coffin.

"We're Dying To Save The Economy" stupid.  I mean what could go wrong, and what do you have to lose? 

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1 hour ago, d'ranger said:

Trump is having a big economic pow wow at Camp David with an allstar cast including Jared & Ivanka and the new press secretary.  The plan? Get people back to work, another month of shutdown will cripple the economy and put the nails in Trumps election coffin.

"We're Dying To Save The Economy" stupid.  I mean what could go wrong, and what do you have to lose? 

Does he realise that over half of the senate he's screaming at to come back tomorrow (So he can fill all those judicial vacancies) are over 65..and most of the oldest are Republicans? 

https://infogalactic.com/info/List_of_current_United_States_Senators_by_age

image.thumb.png.5b19be1e25edcab7eafc372369d4c4c4.png

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Just now, Shortforbob said:

Does he realise that over half of the senate he's screaming at to come back tomorrow (So he can fill all those judicial vacancies) are over 65..and most of the oldest are Republicans? 

image.thumb.png.5b19be1e25edcab7eafc372369d4c4c4.png

That's OK, they would be happy to die to keep the Dow up.

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Our stay at home was extended.  Today, however, the number of people out and about was MUCH higher than last weekend.  Roads that were empty.. aren't.  About eight cars had blocked off a the school parking lot and kiddies were playing field hockey.  The policeman that normally sits in that parking lot was notably absent.  It really was a beautiful day - the first weekend one in a while.  Maybe he was just busy.

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4 hours ago, Left Shift said:

Well, the Guv in Florida has decided that the state is no longer going to release Covid-19 case or death information. 

What you don't know can't hurt  you, right?  Open those beaches!!!! 

They stopped reporting flu in march at the end of flu season.  They still record the data and it is available when needed.

They are still reporting COVID-19 cases.  Unless, you think it's 'just the flu'.

It was pretty much over as the FLU data shows.

Aili-map-1.png

And COVID cases were being reported separately.

Screen-Shot-2020-03-20-at-9.53.46-AM-980

Try again

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6 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

They stopped reporting flu in march at the end of flu season.  They still record the data and it is available when needed.

They are still reporting COVID-19 cases.  Unless, you think it's 'just the flu'.

It was pretty much over as the FLU data shows.

Aili-map-1.png

And COVID cases were being reported separately.

 

Try again

Nice sharp border you got there. How tall is your wall?

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3 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Nice sharp border you got there. How tall is your wall?

That's a different border security problem a wall wouldn't work.  Might be OK on the AL, GA borders though to keep the New Yorkers out.

Are you really that stupid?

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3 hours ago, Saorsa said:

That's a different border security problem a wall wouldn't work.  Might be OK on the AL, GA borders though to keep the New Yorkers out.

Are you really that stupid?

No, I'm a different stupid.

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4 hours ago, cmilliken said:

Our stay at home was extended.  Today, however, the number of people out and about was MUCH higher than last weekend.  Roads that were empty.. aren't.  About eight cars had blocked off a the school parking lot and kiddies were playing field hockey.  The policeman that normally sits in that parking lot was notably absent.  It really was a beautiful day - the first weekend one in a while.  Maybe he was just busy.

I hope folks aren’t selfish... 

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