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Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


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14 minutes ago, Snore said:

 

So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?


Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

 

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.

Testing alone won't solve this pandemic.

To solve THIS pandemic, we need testing, some functional analysis where we square the i's and actually manage the infinities instead of sweeping them under the rug, and a handful of sufficiently intelligent policy makers to see that the actual data drives the decisions.

And then ... poof, no pandemic.

 

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4 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Testing definitely solves the pandemic.

Because with proper testing there is no pandemic.

 

7 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Testing = data

data = knowledge

knowledge = plan

plan = solution

 

No testing = no data

no data = no knowledge

no knowledge = guesswork

guesswork = no solution

Do you want to just rely on the rest of the world to solve a problem and maybe let you in on the solution, or do you want to try to come up with the solution in your area?  If the latter, than testing is unnecessary.

 


 

I agree data is needed to solve a problem.  Also defining the problem is the first step in solving it.

 

But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 
 

So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.


We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Snore said:

 

So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?


Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

 

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.

It doesn’t SOLVE a pandemic you fucking moron.  No one has said it does. It does help enormously in responding to a pandemic minimizing death and infection and preserving medical resources and infrastructure.

You should go back to sea.  You’re too stupid to be ashore.

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14 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Los Angeles is going to be in a world of hurt if "the rona" hits skid row and some of the other homeless hot spots. 

NYC Mass graves will nothing compare to this shitstorm.

It most definitely will be a problem getting those folks to comply with a quarantine, but there have been serious moves to get them all sheltered. Small business will a large problem, the stimulus does little to seriously help those people, they will be anxious to start up and move on, I just don’t know if the city and county will let them.

whatever happens, it’s sure to get uglier by the day.

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20 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

i doubt it will be shocking. What I do think may be shocking is the number of lives saved by the Inside Time.  Deaths from the flu, pneumonia, air pollution, car accidents and the like are already off a cliff, and those kill hundreds of thousands per year. 

True, but This is still a pandemic and has the ability to be far worse. If not handled properly, every one of us will be familiar with casualties. I don’t think I have ever known anyone who died from the flu.

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3 minutes ago, Snore said:

 

But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 
So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.

We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   

 

 

What is the plan if we cannot find an effective vaccination?  What is the plan if the only effective vaccination can only be tolerated by 40% of the population?  What is the plan if it takes 6 years to find a vaccination?  What is the plan if it takes 1 year to find a vaccination but another year to vaccinate the world? 

If we can understand the mechanism and process of contagion in great detail and if we can understand the nature and degree of immunity in those who recover, we can get people back to some sense of normalcy in a planned manner. 

If we have developed fast and accurate tests, we can monitor actively and be ready to implement shutdown procedures anywhere there is a hotspot. 

If we have comprehensive and frequently updated testing data, we can figure out if and when wider life can get back to normal even in the absence of a vaccine.

All of that requires more data than "the...virus is killing people" and "we basically have to vaccinate the planet"

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7 hours ago, Dog said:

Relax..If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped. He is in fact bragging about doing the most testing, we have the best tests, nobody tests like we test.

You were right the first time. Trump is duping the nation. Just where are those tests? He said day before yesterday that there would be no test, the very idea of testing 325 million was ludicrous. Yet all of the medical experts are saying that a test is our way out of this. Who prevails?

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18 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What is the plan if we cannot find an effective vaccination?  What is the plan if the only effective vaccination can only be tolerated by 40% of the population?  What is the plan if it takes 6 years to find a vaccination?  What is the plan if it takes 1 year to find a vaccination but another year to vaccinate the world? 

If we can understand the mechanism and process of contagion in great detail and if we can understand the nature and degree of immunity in those who recover, we can get people back to some sense of normalcy in a planned manner. 

If we have developed fast and accurate tests, we can monitor actively and be ready to implement shutdown procedures anywhere there is a hotspot. 

If we have comprehensive and frequently updated testing data, we can figure out if and when wider life can get back to normal even in the absence of a vaccine.

All of that requires more data than "the...virus is killing people" and "we basically have to vaccinate the planet"


I understand the logic.  And agree that fast, accurate testing is critical.  
 

The idea of no vaccine for more than a year or a vaccine with low usage rate is scary.  If that happens we will see population shrink.   We will see those with fewer resources dying first.  If that happens things can get wonky   Stated otherwise, this is scenario is not an option.

 

Therefore, we will disagree on the conclusions of your post.

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13 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

The testing is the problem. All this testing keeps driving up the numbers of infected people. If we don’t test there won’t be any virus. 

 FFS, please use sarcasm font :P

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1 minute ago, Snore said:

But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 

 

So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.


We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   

 

 

You can't cure or vaccinate against rhinoviruses and coronavirus. They're too virulent, they mutate too quickly, and they have too many strains. Take all the difficulty of curing and vaccinating against flu and multiply times ten, that's rhinoviruses and coronaviruses. They have been evolutionarily designed to survive and prosper in the most difficult parts of the respiratory system; high air velocities, large temperature shifts, high mechanical stress.

The SARS-CoV-2 is killing people, but it it's more deadly than any other SARS-CoV, then that isn't due to the virus itself, or even the bacterial coinfection that actually kills otherwise healthy people rather than those with depleted immunity. If SARS-CoV-2 is any more deadly than SARS-CoV-1, or SARS-CoV-43, then it's because of the external conditions to which it was borne into this world. And not borne into this world because of some bullshit about some person eating a bat or a civet (humans have been eating nasty shit for millions of years, this is a 2000s thing) but rather borne into this world the way virus are borne into this world, the millions of sub-sub-strains have completely filled their host organisms over the cold-and-flu-season, and then the warm air comes, and like snow to a population of bunnies, the various strains, mutations, sub-mutations, sub-strains, sub-sub-mutations and sub-sub-strains start to die off like those bunnies in an ice storm. And then after that long, hot summer, a few coronaviruses and a few rhinoviruses and even a few Belgian Kickboxer flu viruses are left. Those are the best, of the best. And they made it through and then they are joined by their weaker sisters from the Southern Hemisphere, and they set a course for new adventure.

If SARS-CoV-2 is any worse than any of those, it's not because some super virus popped into existence. It's because of the external conditions. Did we have a cold-flu season that helped the spread of the viruses? Did we suddenly add a couple hundred million new e-cigarette vape users to the global product market, and find that respiratory viruses seem to have a devil's playground in a lung coated with propylene glycol and glycerin. Did the virus coming into being when ground level ozone pollution in Hubei was so bad that one lab in Golden, Colorado couldn't even measure the surface reactions of that much ozone pollution with the existing test methods? Was the baby virus borne into a hemisphere that was so saturated with accumulation-mode submicron particulates that the virus had a hundred-fold increase of nucleation sites?

You can't cure or vaccinate rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, and we may never be able to do so. So rather than look at rhinoviruses and coronaviruses as pathogenic boogeymen, we should instead recognize them as canaries in the coal mine. They are normally harmless, but in the wrong conditions, the wrong coinfections, they will sing their little heads off until they fall over dead and a hundred terrified miners trample toward the entrance. SARS-CoV-2 is, in the purest medical definition, a cold virus. Not a flu virus, not a pneumonia bacterium, but a cold virus. And like untold multitudes of cold viruses before them, they will happily take millions of lives because that's what cold viruses do, not because they are especially dangerous, but because rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are like that fucking asshole Rick Yukon and his disgusting sidekick Mikewof who insists on twisting the knife when history has once again shown him to be correct inthefuture.com. That rhinovirus and that coronavirus will find the people who can least afford an infection, and without mercy, they will continue to pile straws on the camel's back until it snaps the The Cromarty's gear-driven door lock grinds up an accountant's arm that was attached to an accountant, who was on a ship full of accountants, all standing around in their underwear, waiting to be tested for SARS-CoV-2.

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42 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

It doesn’t SOLVE a pandemic you fucking moron.  No one has said it does. It does help enormously in responding to a pandemic minimizing death and infection and preserving medical resources and infrastructure.

You should go back to sea.  You’re too stupid to be ashore.

He's asking exactly the right questions, you just lack sufficient education to recognize them.

Seek teacher.

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21 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

The testing is the problem. All this testing keeps driving up the numbers of infected people. If we don’t test there won’t be any virus. 

 

Yes.

And the more we test, the lower the mortality rate falls, and the less justification for this demented three-horned goat you seem to love so much.

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43 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What is the plan if we cannot find an effective vaccination?  What is the plan if the only effective vaccination can only be tolerated by 40% of the population?  What is the plan if it takes 6 years to find a vaccination?  What is the plan if it takes 1 year to find a vaccination but another year to vaccinate the world? 

If we can understand the mechanism and process of contagion in great detail and if we can understand the nature and degree of immunity in those who recover, we can get people back to some sense of normalcy in a planned manner. 

If we have developed fast and accurate tests, we can monitor actively and be ready to implement shutdown procedures anywhere there is a hotspot. 

If we have comprehensive and frequently updated testing data, we can figure out if and when wider life can get back to normal even in the absence of a vaccine.

All of that requires more data than "the...virus is killing people" and "we basically have to vaccinate the planet"

 

This is wrong, you don't seem to understand the meaning of the word "immunity."

Do you have any idea how hard it is for me to not make a joke right now about "flicking" a booger?

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29 minutes ago, Snore said:


I understand the logic.  And agree that fast, accurate testing is critical.  
 

The idea of no vaccine for more than a year or a vaccine with low usage rate is scary.  If that happens we will see population shrink.   We will see those with fewer resources dying first.  If that happens things can get wonky   Stated otherwise, this is scenario is not an option.

 

Therefore, we will disagree on the conclusions of your post.

i appreciate your acknowledgement and this discussion.  I would recommend though that you realize that longterm lack of an effective vaccine is quite possible, at least if you look at the history of vaccine development.  I believe the combined power of the world's smart people being supported by the world's rich people and the world's government money will produce a vaccine or an effective treatment regime, but it's not always easy or possible to do so.

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29 minutes ago, mikewof said:

With the CDC pneumonia data that was just published, I can't see how much longer we'll be able to manage this charade. The news outlets have now resorted to tales of misery of the infected. There were no tales of misery last year when 1,000,000 Americans found themselves in the hospital over pneumonia and there were no tales of misery when 50,000 Americans died of pneumonia. So eventually, the average American is going to see that "fell off the cliff" graph from the CDC and they're going to make the same connection a few of us made back when there were 20 virus deaths in the USA.

.

50K over a year. Over 20K have died since the first death on 29th Feb, less than 2 months and that means about half the years hospitalized load has landed up in the hospitals in that period. Hospitals are not set up to handle 5-10 times their average capacity for an extended duration. That fall off the cliff shows ~1500 deaths less per week whereas covid is claiming more than that in a day and distancing works for other causes of pneumonia too. 

 It will only get worse with many people believing the kind of BS you are sprouting and not taking any precautions especially with Easter. When will you give this BS up? 50K deaths a month/week. You initially downplayed COVID-19, many others did too. Those who really get science tend to change their views to fit the data, you are stridently trying to massage the data to fit your previous claims.

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

i appreciate your acknowledgement and this discussion.  I would recommend though that you realize that longterm lack of an effective vaccine is quite possible, at least if you look at the history of vaccine development.  I believe the combined power of the world's smart people being supported by the world's rich people and the world's government money will produce a vaccine or an effective treatment regime, but it's not always easy or possible to do so.

Dengue fever is an RNA virus it’s been around all of the 20th century (and before) and became a particular problem since WW2..  no vaccine was available till 2016 and it is highly risky to people who get injected with it.

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

i appreciate your acknowledgement and this discussion.  I would recommend though that you realize that longterm lack of an effective vaccine is quite possible, at least if you look at the history of vaccine development.  I believe the combined power of the world's smart people being supported by the world's rich people and the world's government money will produce a vaccine or an effective treatment regime, but it's not always easy or possible to do so.

Medical technology might make me eat crow on this, but I doubt we'll ever see a vaccine for SARS-CoV as a whole. Maybe we'll get the top twenty variants, and that might help a bit. But rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are not other viruses, because they modus operandi is mutations, sub-mutations, strains, sub-strains and sub-sub-strains.

You can believe that someone will make an inexpensive, affordable flying car and an affordable picture telephone all you like, but when 1950 ends, and 2020 arrives, we will likely only have one of those. In some cases the technical hurdles are tractable, in some cases they are not.

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22 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Dengue fever is an RNA virus it’s been around all of the 20th century (and before) and became a particular problem since WW2..  no vaccine was available till 2016 and it is highly risky to people who get injected with it.

I imagine there has been more effort and money spent on vaccine research for the new one in two months than has been spent on dengue research in 200 years.

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1 hour ago, VhmSays said:

50K over a year. Over 20K have died since the first death on 29th Feb, less than 2 months and that means about half the years hospitalized load has landed up in the hospitals in that period. Hospitals are not set up to handle 5-10 times their average capacity for an extended duration. That fall off the cliff shows ~1500 deaths less per week whereas covid is claiming more than that in a day and distancing works for other causes of pneumonia too. 

 It will only get worse with many people believing the kind of BS you are sprouting and not taking any precautions especially with Easter. When will you give this BS up? 50K deaths a month/week. You initially downplayed COVID-19, many others did too. Those who really get science tend to change their views to fit the data, you are stridently trying to massage the data to fit your previous claims.

Were you under this impression that 50k pneumonia deaths was somehow evenly spread through the year? Like 50k/12 = about 4k deaths per month? Pneumonia is a year-round infection, but it peaks at about the same time of the year as flu and colds. In the spread that you mentioned we had about the same number of pneumonia deaths in previous years as we have SARS-CoV-2 this year, and we had many more pneumonia hospitalizations in previous years than we have hospitalizations of SARS-CoV-2 this year. But that's data you don't want to know about, because it doesn't fit your world-view, apparently.

We handled it in previous years, when the hospitals were actually full of long-term care patients, some years even more than 20,000 deaths in that time frame from pneumonia, and now we can't handle them with all these people recovering at home to prevent the superspreaders? Do you want to take a guess how many Americans were hospitalized last year for pneumonia? About 1,000,000. And somehow, you've convinced yourself that we are 5-10 times more than our national capacity? I've no doubt that there is a hospital somewhere that is overwhelmed. Welcome to America, land of the uninsured and now land of the homeless who have no services, no bathrooms and limited options for healthcare. Yeah, hospitals are going to be overcrowded in some urban areas, not because of a virus but because of a quarantine that disconnects the lifelines of millions of Americans.

The "fall off the cliff" is the fall off the cliff in pneumonia deaths. Suddenly, very few people are dying from pneumonia, and they're now dying to SARS-CoV-2, likely a coinfection with pneumonia, given how the vast majority of people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic.

You may not be inclined to actually look at the numbers from the CDC, let alone actually think about them, and perhaps you prefer to digest your knowledge in pre-chewed format from your local one-eyed lodger, but that doesn't make knowledge "BS," it simply means -- like Gator -- you have not sufficiently educated yourself.

 

Those who "really get science" tend to actually look at actual data and think about actual data. You should try that.

Foolish honkey ...

 

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20 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Medical technology might make me eat crow on this, but I doubt we'll ever see a vaccine for SARS-CoV as a whole. Maybe we'll get the top twenty variants, and that might help a bit. But rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are not other viruses, because they modus operandi is mutations, sub-mutations, strains, sub-strains and sub-sub-strains.

Yea.. they mutate very quickly.  The good news about mutation is that it's almost always bad.  The bad news is it only takes one 'good' mutation to keep the chain chugging along.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?l=clock

Personally, I think there will be a 'flu vaccine' equivalent - something that dramatically reduces the impact in most people but doesn't completely arrest transmission - by the end of the year.  Wide distribution won't be possible until next spring. I think that there will be therapies that reduce the impact far sooner.

But I think SARS-CoV variants will be with us forever now, for the same reasons we can't get rid of measles or TB.

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2 hours ago, Snore said:

 

So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?


Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

 

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.

Humans weren’t meant to understand statistics. The above is yet another example.

youre right that it doesn’t matter for the individual. It’s all that matters for the group.

well, and an eventual vaccine.

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7 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

Yea.. they mutate very quickly.  The good news about mutation is that it's almost always bad.  The bad news is it only takes one 'good' mutation to keep the chain chugging along.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?l=clock

Personally, I think there will be a 'flu vaccine' equivalent by the end of the year but wide distribution won't be possible until next spring. I think that there will be therapies that reduce the impact far sooner.

But I think SARS-CoV variants will be with us forever now, for the same reasons we can't get rid of measles or TB.

SARS-CoV as a category and media extravaganza may be new, but coronavirus coinfections with CAP are likely as old as them thar hills. They've probably been with us all along, and we only now have the technology/desire to see them.

So far, the data out of the CDC shows this to be a relatively normal year, all that's really changed has been our new classification of viral/bacterial coinfections as SARS-CoV-2 and also this quarantine that has suddenly saved the lives of tens of thousands of Americans who would have otherwise died of traffic accidents, air pollution, and hospital error.

And yes, I agree with you that we'll get a "one-year" vaccine adjusted to the top-20 most common CoV variants, likely tossed in with our annual flu vaccines. But it won't be a vaccine the way we vaccinated smallpox, rubella, or polio. There will never be a take-once CoV vaccine, regardless how many punters want it.

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15 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I imagine there has been more effort and money spent on vaccine research for the new one in two months than has been spent on dengue research in 200 years.

Shithole countries don’t get a lot of dollars.  But goes to your point that a vaccine is not a guarantee.  Best hope in the mean time is that this mutates into a less virulent strain.

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Just now, mikewof said:

SARS-CoV may be new but coronavirus coinfections with pneumonia are likely as old as them thar hills. They've been with us all along, and we only now have the technology/desire to see them.

Actually, it's SARS-CoV-2 since SARS-CoV was the original SARS virus. 

Yep, not to mention how quickly the world was able to react.    It took a long while to come up with smallpox and polio vaccines and a whole lot of others.  We can track the evolution and mutation of seasonal flus and develop vaccines before they become a problem.  We still get a lot of deaths from them but those are now considered routine.

the very fact that we could identify this by it's genome in a few weeks after the first identified case is incredible.  It's too bad the rest of the world had to wait for the infection to spread before it could get biological samples to develop specific tests.

 

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22 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I imagine there has been more effort and money spent on vaccine research for the new one in two months than has been spent on dengue research in 200 years.

Wish they’d hurry up and get that sorted, it’s seriously curtailed my travelling for years. It’s a fucker!! 

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1 minute ago, Fakenews said:

Shithole countries don’t get a lot of dollars.  But goes to your point that a vaccine is not a guarantee.  Best hope in the mean time is that this mutates into a less virulent strain.

Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are some of the most virulent pathogens there are, because they use our coughs, our sneezes and our exhalations to vector to others. Mutations might change the ability to vaccinate against them, but it likely won't impact their vectoring.

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2 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

Actually, it's SARS-CoV-2 since SARS-CoV was the original SARS virus. 

Yep, not to mention how quickly the world was able to react.    It took a long while to come up with smallpox and polio vaccines and a whole lot of others.  We can track the evolution and mutation of seasonal flus and develop vaccines before they become a problem.  We still get a lot of deaths from them but those are now considered routine.

the very fact that we could identify this by it's genome in a few weeks after the first identified case is incredible.  It's too bad the rest of the world had to wait for the infection to spread before it could get biological samples to develop specific tests.

 

SARS-CoV is apparently the new name for that class of coronaviruses, now with the change of the name from COronaVIrus-D-19 variant, we're using SARS-CoV as the base variant and adding a digit after each major infection, so SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and who can forget SARS-CoV-43, where President Microchip ordered all robots to stay in their homes to avoid infecting the human work prisoners.

I'm not sure why H1N1 escaped this reclassification, or why we didn't go with H1N2 for the virus-formerly-known-as-COVID-19, they are supposedly all three closely related coronaviruses.

Back in  the era of smallpox, they didn't have systems that rapidly sequence genomics, if they did, we would likely be at SARS-CoV-453 by this point.

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1 hour ago, VhmSays said:

50K over a year. Over 20K have died since the first death on 29th Feb, less than 2 months and that means about half the years hospitalized load has landed up in the hospitals in that period. Hospitals are not set up to handle 5-10 times their average capacity for an extended duration. That fall off the cliff shows ~1500 deaths less per week whereas covid is claiming more than that in a day and distancing works for other causes of pneumonia too. 

 It will only get worse with many people believing the kind of BS you are sprouting and not taking any precautions especially with Easter. When will you give this BS up? 50K deaths a month/week. You initially downplayed COVID-19, many others did too. Those who really get science tend to change their views to fit the data, you are stridently trying to massage the data to fit your previous claims.

Please don't quote him. It accomplishes nothing, he will not change his views and those of us who have him on ignore still get to see his nonsense.

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big rich corparations and CEO get Bailouts , but our Postal service can go under, So if you get no bills you don't have to pay them   

                                                                 White House rejects bailout for Postal Service battered by coronavirus

also on another note I think Lee Iacoca , didn't take a salary when Chysler got bailed out , why don't we do that now?

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3 hours ago, badlatitude said:

It most definitely will be a problem getting those folks to comply with a quarantine, but there have been serious moves to get them all sheltered. Small business will a large problem, the stimulus does little to seriously help those people, they will be anxious to start up and move on, I just don’t know if the city and county will let them.

whatever happens, it’s sure to get uglier by the day.

Don't count on Diane Feinstein to help...  she is more interested in helping Iran.

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Bit of a catch 22; the purpose of the economy is to be able to have a good life, to have a good life you have to be alive as a starting point... So why are the hamsters so keen to return to the wheel? Surely not to keep the 10% who own 80% of the stocks happy, but I digress- when you have shit life syndrome the fall to the pandemic ground is not that far!

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

SARS-CoV is apparently the new name for that class of coronaviruses, now with the change of the name from COronaVIrus-D-19 variant, we're using SARS-CoV as the base variant and adding a digit after each major infection, so SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and who can forget SARS-CoV-43, where President Microchip ordered all robots to stay in their homes to avoid infecting the human work prisoners.

I'm not sure why H1N1 escaped this reclassification, or why we didn't go with H1N2 for the virus-formerly-known-as-COVID-19, they are supposedly all three closely related coronaviruses.

Back in  the era of smallpox, they didn't have systems that rapidly sequence genomics, if they did, we would likely be at SARS-CoV-453 by this point.

Way to go Mike, did you do some research and learn what  virus actually is?

Next, maybe you could dig back in, and tell us what viruses actually do?

- DSK

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53 minutes ago, mikewof said:

....

 

The cliff accounts for at the top range ~1500 pneumonia deaths a week, Covid is more than making up for it with upto 2K a day now and likely to grow. The load in the hotspots are enormous, about 60% of the pneumonia cases of last year and 3-4 times as much of that of Covid cases. Everyone has to be treated as a contagion source with precautions to prevent spread. Yes deaths due to RTAs, shootings etc have fallen all over the country due to precautions being taken and the distancing has cut down the spread and given time to other urban populations to get ready but I just can't see anything in the CDC data to support your positions, its going to get worse before it gets better. Also remember the data is not upto data/ final.

Heres the .csv file if you want to dig deeper.  NCHSData12.csv

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4 hours ago, Snore said:

 


 

I agree data is needed to solve a problem.  Also defining the problem is the first step in solving it.

 

But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 
 

So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.


We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   

 

 

 

Actually, we don't have such great data. Who has it? We know when people are dragged into the hospital. We know when people die of it.

Wouldn't it be better to have actual real knowledge of who has it, where they are, and who they are going to interact with today and tomorrow, to stop it from spreading? As it is, we just tell all "non-essential" workers to stay home, which leaves the essential people hanging in the wind to catch it and maybe die. Good plan, huh?

South Korea has done about the best of any country in slowing the spread. They did it by widespread testing, both in a random pattern and in places where they knew there was already exposure. Then when they found infected people they could 1- quarantine those people strictly and effectively and 2- bring in more testing to further define exactly who has it.

A plan to care for the sick won't provide 100,000 ventilators or conjure up hospital beds or nurses and doctors to care for the sick. A plan to prevent people from getting sick would be a lot better.

Testing can definitely help solve this problem. With good enough testing, we don't need stay-at-home orders or "social distancing." Life will not be like it was before, as many will need to be quarantined, but people who have not been exposed could go on about their business.

- DSK

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36 minutes ago, Snore said:

@Steam Flyer I understand the argument, you and Clean offer.  Thanks for presenting it.  
 

I just feel it is collecting statistics that do not address the root issue- the stopping the virus.  

I understand how you feel but you should there is more than one issue here, most importantly: how do we live with the virus until we stop it without staying in our houses?  Testing is the only answer.

 

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2 minutes ago, Snore said:

@Steam Flyer I understand the argument, you and Clean offer.  Thanks for presenting it.  
 

I just feel it is collecting statistics that do not address the root issue- the stopping the virus.  

There is no way to stop a rhinovirus or a coronavirus.

But with data we can decide on a course of action. Without data, we do things like lockout 50% of our economy and require people to wear face masks which my do more harm than good by limiting air flow to the respratory system and encouraging pneumonia strep growth. Yeah, I'm sure facemasks help in a clinical setting. But walking around with them for days and with no way to clean a disposable mask, or that mask that someone's wife made in her living room, that warm, moist absolutely has to be a bacterial breeding ground.

 

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4 minutes ago, mikewof said:

There is no way to stop a rhinovirus or a coronavirus.

But with data we can decide on a course of action. Without data, we do things like lockout 50% of our economy and require people to wear face masks which my do more harm than good by limiting air flow to the respratory system and encouraging pneumonia strep growth. Yeah, I'm sure facemasks help in a clinical setting. But walking around with them for days and with no way to clean a disposable mask, or that mask that someone's wife made in her living room, that warm, moist absolutely has to be a bacterial breeding ground.

 

Sure thing Cliff. Have another beer

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10 minutes ago, mikewof said:

There is no way to stop a rhinovirus or a coronavirus.

But with data we can decide on a course of action. Without data, we do things like lockout 50% of our economy and require people to wear face masks which my do more harm than good by limiting air flow to the respratory system and encouraging pneumonia strep growth. Yeah, I'm sure facemasks help in a clinical setting. But walking around with them for days and with no way to clean a disposable mask, or that mask that someone's wife made in her living room, that warm, moist absolutely has to be a bacterial breeding ground.

 

Which leads to...........

 

 

Wait for it................................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PNEUMONIA!

 

LOL. Your gasbaggery writes itself

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8 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Raz'r thinks his opinions trump peer-reviewed research ...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4202234/

Don't be like Raz'r, he's a dipshit.

Show me a graph that shows me where pneumonia cases went from 1000 cases on march 10th to 530,000 cases on April 11th, or any 30 day period ever. 

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3 hours ago, VhmSays said:

The cliff accounts for at the top range ~1500 pneumonia deaths a week, Covid is more than making up for it with upto 2K a day now and likely to grow. The load in the hotspots are enormous, about 60% of the pneumonia cases of last year and 3-4 times as much of that of Covid cases. Everyone has to be treated as a contagion source with precautions to prevent spread. Yes deaths due to RTAs, shootings etc have fallen all over the country due to precautions being taken and the distancing has cut down the spread and given time to other urban populations to get ready but I just can't see anything in the CDC data to support your positions, its going to get worse before it gets better. Also remember the data is not upto data/ final.

Heres the .csv file if you want to dig deeper.  NCHSData12.csv

Absolutely not true, I can only assume that the reason you "can't see anything in the CDC data is because you didn't actually look in the CDC data. The top range is 5,600 deaths per week ...

3ehhg.png

We're currently at about 25,000 total SARS-CoV-2 deaths, which is about where we would be at this time of the year with pneumonia, because the pneumonia deaths fell off a cliff, as shown in the CDC data. You might notice, if you look at the CDC data, the we absolutely do not average some 4,500 deaths per week, as you suggested earlier by dividing the average by the number of weeks. In the hot months it's as low as 2,500 per week, and in the cold months it goes to 5,000 and above.

And as others in the other thread mentioned, the CDC even mentioned that they have some error in the data, and some deaths may or may not even be attributed to SARS-CoV-2. Further, as many of these deaths are viral/bacterial coinfections, it's clear from the chart that many of the pneumonia deaths are being classified as SARS-CoV-2 due to the presence of antibodies or similar symptoms.

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7 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

Show me a graph that shows me where pneumonia cases went from 1000 cases on march 10th to 530,000 cases on April 11th, or any 30 day period ever. 

Maybe if you ask nicely I'll look it up for you. But I'm not interested in doing anything for someone who demands without a "please" and a "thank you." Remember, there were 1.3 million pneumonia hospitalizations in the USA last year, perhaps double that number of milder (i.e. walking) pneumonia cases. Most of those hospitalizations happened between January and April, so hitting half a million? Just look at the CDC data, or ask politely and I'll look it up for you.

The quarantine is not your opportunity to be the asshole you apparently aspire to be.

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Just now, mikewof said:

Maybe if you ask nicely I'll look it up for you. But I'm not interested in doing anything for someone who demands without a "please" and a "thank you."

The quarantine is not your opportunity to be the asshole you apparently aspire to be.

You can't.  You're a liar.  Show me a graph that shows Pneumonia cases going from 1000 to 530,000 cases in one month. 

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6 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

You can't.  You're a liar.  Show me a graph that shows Pneumonia cases going from 1000 to 530,000 cases in one month. 

And you're ignorant. Why should SARS-CoV-2 have the same diagnosis rate as CAP? Even suggesting that as some kind of proof for your demented theory shows your ignorance. SARS-CoV-2 is being diagnosed to a different standard than pneumonia was last year, and people are actively being tested for those antibodies, unlike the bacterial infection of pneumonia.

You seem to think that your presentation of a challenge is is proof of your knowledge of the subject. That may work when you're selling someone a used car, but it doesn't work that way with science.

The total mortality is a good indicator because it's binary, someone is either dead or not dead. Pneumonia has a lot of cases which are severe enough to cause extreme shortness of breath, flu-like symptoms but the patient doesn't seek hospitalizations. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, many patients are being instructed not to even come into the hospitals to prevent superspreading, and they are told to recover at home. At 98.5% some survival rate, that's a pretty safe bet that they'll be just fine.

You don't seem to understand any of this, because it seems to present a complexity to your tiny little mind that is crowded out by you demanding shit.

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Just now, mikewof said:

And you're ignorant. Why should SARS-CoV-2 have the same diagnosis rate as CAP? Even suggesting that as some kind of proof for your demented theory shows your ignorance. SARS-CoV-2 is being diagnosed to a different standard than pneumonia was last year, and people are actively being tested for those antibodies, unlike the bacterial infection of pneumonia.

You seem to think that your presentation of a challenge is is proof of your knowledge of the subject. That may work when you're selling someone a used car, but it doesn't work that way with science.

Show me a graph where pneumonia cases have gone from 1000 to 530,000 cases in one month. 

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1 minute ago, mikewof said:

Why?

Same diagnosis criteria for pneumonia as SARS-CoV-2? If so, which criteria?

You're a total fraud. Show me where your vaunted Pneumonia (even before you eliminated including the flu from your chart with no explanation) has gone from 1000 cases to 530,000 cases in one month.  Any months would be OK.

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4 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

You're a total fraud. Show me where your vaunted Pneumonia (even before you eliminated including the flu from your chart with no explanation) has gone from 1000 cases to 530,000 cases in one month.  Any months would be OK.

I didn't "eliminate flu", you're imagining things.

"Cases"? Do you mean diagnoses made from a doctor over the phone? Hospitalizations? Emergency room visits? All of these? What is a "case" specifically? If you want to compare diseases, you need to compare them by the same metric.

I posted CDC data that shows a dramatic drop off with pneumonia that coincides with the increase in SARS-CoV-2. So your accusation of "total fraud" so far suggests that you can't read a chart.

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1 minute ago, mikewof said:

I didn't "eliminate flu", you're imagining things.

"Cases"? Do you mean diagnoses made from a doctor over the phone? Hospitalizations? Emergency room visits? All of these? What is a "case" specifically? If you want to compare diseases, you need to compare them by the same metric.

1000 March 10th

530,000 April 11th

CDC.  Your metrics.  You're really bad at this.

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7 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

1000 March 10th

530,000 April 11th

CDC.  Your metrics.  You're really bad at this.

Apparently you're really bad at this, because you don't seem to know what is a metric. I assume your numbers of 1,000 to 530,000 are for SARS-CoV-2?

Now, what is the metric that those "cases" were used to define "cases"? Antibody tests? Physician diagnoses? Emergency room hosptializations? You want me to get data, but you have to first tell me what your numbers mean. "Cases" is a remarkably vague thing to use, so please be specific, or I can't help you.

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2 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Apparently you're really bad at this, because you don't seem to know what is a metric. I assume your numbers of 1,000 to 530,000 are for SARS-CoV-2?

Now, what is the metric that those "cases" were used to define "cases"? Antibody tests? Physician diagnoses? Emergency room hosptializations? You want me to get data, but you have to first tell me what your numbers mean. "Cases" is a remarkably vague thing to use, so please be specific, or I can't help you.

Keep spinning.  You have lived and died by the CDC.  March 10th 937 cases.  Today 530,000. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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1 hour ago, roundthebuoys said:
1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Apparently you're really bad at this, because you don't seem to know what is a metric. I assume your numbers of 1,000 to 530,000 are for SARS-CoV-2?

Now, what is the metric that those "cases" were used to define "cases"? Antibody tests? Physician diagnoses? Emergency room hosptializations? You want me to get data, but you have to first tell me what your numbers mean. "Cases" is a remarkably vague thing to use, so please be specific, or I can't help you.

Keep spinning.  You have lived and died by the CDC.  March 10th 937 cases.  Today 530,000. 

It depends on what the meaning of is, is.

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1 hour ago, roundthebuoys said:

Keep spinning.  You have lived and died by the CDC.  March 10th 937 cases.  Today 530,000. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

So you link to data without knowing what the data tells you? Look at the data you posted and get back to me about what is defined as "case." Hospital admission? A physician over the phone telling someone "might be the virus, stay inside and get back to me in two days"?

Even with our dodgy data, we're at 98.5% survival rate. With the Lancet data we're closer to 99.8% survival rate. 

If you want a specific answer you need to pose a specific question.

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7 minutes ago, mikewof said:

So you link to data without knowing what the data tells you? Look at the data you posted and get back to me about what is defined as "case." Hospital admission? A physician over the phone telling someone "might be the virus, stay inside and get back to me in two days"?

Even with our dodgy data, we're at 98.5% survival rate. With the Lancet data we're closer to 99.8% survival rate. 

If you want a specific answer you need to pose a specific question.

Talking out of your ass. No one has any idea the real survival rate. Especially not that bullshit one.

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On 4/11/2020 at 6:05 AM, Shortforbob said:

Round two?

South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again

South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.

South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.

 

The prospect of people being reinfected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.

"The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

South Korea had recorded 10,450 confirmed cases as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 208 deaths.

More than 7,100 South Koreans were believed to have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

This can be seen with any type of flu.
Also the tests are not 100 percent (5-10 percent gives wrong results), so they may not have had COVID-19 when tested the first time. The virus will most likely mutate though, and everyone can be infected again, but natural selection favors pathogens that are less lethal and with milder symptoms.  (It's not good for it's spread if the hosts gets so sick that they are isolated from other people, and death is obviously undesirable from a pathogens persepective).

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56 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Talking out of your ass. one has any idea the real survival rate. Especially not that bullshit one.

Wrong. The survival rate = 100 - mortality rate.

Before using The Lancet study, the current survival rate is 100 - (21,000/533,000) = 96.1%. But even the common number is 99.33%,

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html 

And then using The Lancet study, IIRC with 86% infections unconfirmed, it's closer to 100 - (21,000/(533,000/0.14)) = 99.5%. If you use the April increase in deaths to scale the likely infections, it's closer to 99.8%.

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3 hours ago, Gissie said:

You guys need to follow us down here in Kiwi. Our plan is Eradication.

Yup, to hell with this flatten the curve crap. We are going to Eradicate it completely.

 

Yeah, that'll work. Provided you never let anyone into the country going forward without a mandatory couple weeks in quarantine.

FKT

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1 hour ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Yeah, that'll work. Provided you never let anyone into the country going forward without a mandatory couple weeks in quarantine.

FKT

Yeah, weird idea. No details on what is meant by eradicate, but obviously a step past the curve flattening ideas. Just stay in lock down until it has been eradicated, will need some serious testing to prove it has gone.

Maybe the plan is to take all the dodgy test kits the rest of the world has returned. No positives, all good, must be eradicated so off we all go again.

Not letting anyone in wouldn't be that bad a thing. If they must, then couple of weeks quarantine, at their cost, would at least weed out those with bugger all to spend. Plus the added bonus of less people to get off my lawn.

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Quote

 

“Why don’t we let this wash over the country?” Trump asked, a question others told the Post the president has raised repeatedly in the Oval Office. Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, realized with surprise that Trump was serious, the Post reported. 

“Mr. President,” Fauci responded, according to the Post. “Many people would die.”

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-free-range-covid-19-death-toll_n_5e925a48c5b6f7b1ea82dcd7?ri18n=true

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8 hours ago, roundthebuoys said:
8 hours ago, mikewof said:

Maybe if you ask nicely I'll look it up for you. But I'm not interested in doing anything for someone who demands without a "please" and a "thank you."

The quarantine is not your opportunity to be the asshole you apparently aspire to be.

You can't.  You're a liar.  Show me a graph that shows Pneumonia cases going from 1000 to 530,000 cases in one month

Mike in full swing still. 
 

Babies-Should-Be-Picked-Up-Every-Time-They-Cry.jpg

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7 hours ago, mikewof said:

 

There is a difference of about 1500 deaths in current vs previous data in deaths attributed to pneumonia per week. This is preliminary data subject to change as data is corrected, updated and compiled from all sources. 

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6 hours ago, ModernViking said:

This can be seen with any type of flu.
Also the tests are not 100 percent (5-10 percent gives wrong results), so they may not have had COVID-19 when tested the first time. The virus will most likely mutate though, and everyone can be infected again, but natural selection favors pathogens that are less lethal and with milder symptoms.  (It's not good for it's spread if the hosts gets so sick that they are isolated from other people, and death is obviously undesirable from a pathogens persepective).

Kinds depends. Some pathogens, ebola for example, can spread post-mortem just fine.

CoviD-19 kills the alveolar cells in your lungs, the tiny air sacs that exchange O for CO2 from the blood. You spread it by exhaling the reproduced virus in exhaling or coughing. When it first starts, you barely notice, you have millions of lung cells. Then after a few days, and getting short of breath, you start to feel bad, but are exhaling virus more than ever. By this point, your immune system is starting to ramp up and the race is on, will you run out of lung cells, or will your own immune system drown you? But it's in the virus best interest to keep you exhaling virus as long as possible. Since that process can continue until you don't have any more lung cells, why should the virus care?

Of course the virus doesn't have emotions, it doesn't "care," really. But I mean, why should your death affect the mechanism of how the virus reproduces maximally? Some viruses, it definitely makes a difference, it is against the viruses best interest to kill the host. But I don't think that's true for this one.

- DSK

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9 hours ago, mikewof said:

 There is no way to stop a rhinovirus or a coronavirus.

 

 

Thank you.  That one statement alters the problem.  From what I had read (not Fox or garbage sites) was that there was promise for a vaccine in 14-18 months.  
 

If Coronavirus germs (they have been around for some time) are that hard to vaccine against, then expending effort on quantifying makes sense.  

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16 minutes ago, VhmSays said:
9 hours ago, mikewof said:

 

There is a difference of about 1500 deaths in current vs previous data in deaths attributed to pneumonia per week. This is preliminary data subject to change as data is corrected, updated and compiled from all sources. 

Well, there you go. All them doctors 'n shit ain't as smart as Woofsey. He be much MUCH smarter'n dem.

- DSK

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3 minutes ago, Snore said:

Thank you.  That one statement alters the problem.  From what I had read (not Fox or garbage sites) was that there was promise for a vaccine in 14-18 months.  
 

If Coronavirus germs (they have been around for some time) are that hard to vaccine against, then expending effort on quantifying makes sense.  

A vaccine is not a cure.  It is basically a stimulant for your immune system in regard to a particular virus.

There is an interesting article on tracking the genome through current changes from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

According to Nextstrain there are now over 3400 derivatives.  That site is worth a visit.  You can animate the spread on the map

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Another NYT article breaks down the genome.  Lots of interesting things in the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/science/coronavirus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html

Part of the spike can extend and attach to a protein called ACE2 (in yellow below), which appears on particular cells in the human airway. The virus can then invade the cell.

The gene for the spike protein in SARS-CoV-2 has an insertion of 12 genetic letters: ccucggcgggca. This mutation may help the spikes bind tightly to human cells — a crucial step in its evolution from a virus that infected bats and other species.

A number of scientific teams are now designing vaccines that could prevent the spikes from attaching to human cells.

image.thumb.png.8eb611ff9be0ee18b998ac243d356098.png

 

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