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Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?


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You're a smart guy. You're obviously aware that New Zealand is a suburb of Bondi, just round the corner from Random's joint in Queensland.  BJ can just yell over the fence at him.  Yes, the USA i

As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the great

Of course what I think has not bearing.  But the example was raised and I am free to render my opinion--if Bus Driver didn't want a reaction, he wouldn't have posted that.   I actually feel sorry for

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1 hour ago, LenP said:

Good luck. He has been stuck on this fictional co-infection thing for weeks now and no amount of reason will stop him. 

That's been his way of downplaying the seriousness of this situation for a while, though it seems to have peaked and may be going down.

Fear not.  Like COVID-19, his position will likely mutate and we will see a resurgence of downplaying.  It'll come in waves.

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1 minute ago, Raz'r said:

Frenchie owns your ass.

Your lack of desire has you seeing a playground scuffle around the jungle gym while the adults are inside drinking coffee.

How "owns my ass" huh? Are you a 70-year-old third grader all of a sudden?

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3 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

That's been his way of downplaying the seriousness of this situation for a while, though it seems to have peaked and may be going down.

Fear not.  Like COVID-19, his position will likely mutate and we will see a resurgence of downplaying.  It'll come in waves.

The medical literature and the CDC data confirms the coinfection. You can go back to building bathrooms now.

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5 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

 

It's not about the snow, it's about the chemtrails

 

FFS. it would be amusing if you potheads didn't actually believe that shit.

Hey! Look Clean! It's not actually a plane loaded with weight simulators, but rather tanks filled with chemicals about to be sprayed into your lungs!

chemtrail-inners3a.jpg

Here's your favorite hat, Clean ...

jv1TnyLn_400x400.jpg

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41 minutes ago, mikewof said:
44 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

 

It's not about the snow, it's about the chemtrails

 

FFS. it would be amusing if you potheads didn't actually believe that shit.

Hey! Look Clean! It's not actually a plane loaded with weight simulators, but rather tanks filled with chemicals about to be sprayed into your lungs!

chemtrail-inners3a.jpg

Here's your favorite hat, Clean ...

jv1TnyLn_400x400.jpg

Clearly, you are either too fucking smart, or too fucking stupid, to grasp sarcasm.

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17 hours ago, Se7en said:

Oh - I agree that there are a whole lot of deaths just being kicked down the road a bit. That's why I said it was stupidly simplistic at this point.

"Breaking the economy" is too black and white a statement. Consider it a pause and then some slowing. You're not burning the house down, rather sealing it up and gassing it for a few days to get rid of current mice, then leaving some areas shut off to make sure the mice stay dead. And not bringing any food into the house to attract new mice.

It's slowing the economy to provide a health and wellbeing impact. Hopefully we can learn something through this episode forced on us, and then apply those learnings in other areas - like the environment, and obesity and overpopulation etc.

BS!!  Tell that to the 22M folks out of work right now and all the small businesses that have failed and disappeared from the planet that this is just a "pause" in the economy.  Sorry, but the house is on fire right now.  At least your mouse problem is better.  Now what?

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12 hours ago, Grrr... said:

Really? You knew my mom? What was she like?

And how did you possibly have time to sit down for a beer between being an environmental advisor, physicist, car mechanic, masusse (with happy endings), pharmacist, hunter, sailor, goodness! I get all a-flutter about how smart you must be. Your granny sounds pretty sharp too.

Don't forget bike messenger and reporter......

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2 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

BS!!  Tell that to the 22M folks out of work right now and all the small businesses that have failed and disappeared from the planet that this is just a "pause" in the economy.  Sorry, but the house is on fire right now.  At least your mouse problem is better.  Now what?

The mouse murdered my Aunt Joanie this morning and 33,000 other americans over the course of two months.  That mouse is now the leading cause of deaths in America.

The more people on this board that have that experience, the more you sound like someone who should not be allowed back into this country.

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2 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

The mouse murdered my Aunt Joanie this morning and 33,000 other americans over the course of two months.  That mouse is now the leading cause of deaths in America.

The more people on this board that have that experience, the more you sound like someone who should not be allowed back into this country.

Alan, I'm truly sorry for your loss.  I am. 

I lost a close aunt a couple of years ago to the seasonal flu.  Her family didn't burn their house down in response though.  My mother turns 80 this summer.  She's a longtime smoker and is not in overall great health.  If she gets this bug, she's a gonner.  But I'm not going to burn the village down if she does.  Fortunately, she lives in rural NC, but she still does have to go grocery shopping....  

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2 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Alan, I'm truly sorry for your loss.  I am. 

I lost a close aunt a couple of years ago to the seasonal flu.  Her family didn't burn their house down in response though.  My mother turns 80 this summer.  She's a longtime smoker and is not in overall great health.  If she gets this bug, she's a gonner.  But I'm not going to burn the village down if she does.  Fortunately, she lives in rural NC, but she still does have to go grocery shopping....  

her house is still standing.  

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11 hours ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

BS!!  Tell that to the 22M folks out of work right now and all the small businesses that have failed and disappeared from the planet that this is just a "pause" in the economy.  Sorry, but the house is on fire right now.  At least your mouse problem is better.  Now what?

Sorry - I was responding to MikeWof who had said the economy was broken. As in irrepairable, throw it away and start again broken.

I was trying to keep the canoe of logic upright, which means I need to lean to the left a littler to counter Mike leaning to the right.

To push the analogy, yes the curtains are on fire, and we are going to take some more damage before we get this under control. Perhaps lose a room or two. We've already committed to taking some damage to kill off the mice, but equally we don't want to lose the whole house.

I've actually been a proponent of us needing to measure the cost of the response against the impact of the disease all along. Which is why I enguaged with Mike about some of the statistical analysis of the data. But I've ended up arguing with him as he goes down the path of insisting that the data supports his pet theories, while a bunch of us disagree. I thought Frenchie had demonstrated Mike's mistaken view of the data pefectly, and that horse didn't need any more beating.

FWIW, I think the data points to around a 1.5% mortality rate with medical intervention, with the potential of surging up to 10% in some areas where limited medical support meets other conflating factors. And it is time to see how far we can open society back up within the limit of staying in that 1.5% range. Australia's current conceit that we can eliminate the virus in Aus, and that is some sort of solution to this problem, doesn't strike me as sensible.

(And I say all this with parents and in laws who are right in the highest risk group. The best solution for society may incur personal tragedy for me, but that doesn't mean it is not the correct path for society as a whole)

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16 hours ago, mikewof said:

Frenchie, look at the actual CDC data, they have both in process data and closed data.

They have "closed" data that covers recent time periods?  Link, please. 

Quote

I agree with you that data in process can and is adjusted as the data arrives. Will the "all death" data be adjusted within the next few weeks so that it is roughly indistinguishable from previous year's data, as that animation shows?

Maybe.

But as it stands, the data is what we have.

Pretending it doesn't have the limitations that the very source explains it has... makes no fucking sense whatsoever.

Quote

Now, pneumonia does not mean that there is a viral/bacterial coinfection. Someone can presumably die of a rhinovirus or coronavirus infection without a community acquired pneumonia infection.

You're still conflating pneumonia with co-infection.  Pneumonia is a common reaction to coronavirus, on its own.  Pneumonia just means lung inflammation.

Quote

But when the potential for a coinfection is in fact measured as it is in California, Connecticut and Colorado (shit, maybe it's a "C-state" thing!) ... when that coinfection is in fact measured, the data from those states that has been submitted to the CDC shows that the coinfection is there far more often than it is not.

Link?

Quote

Can someone die of a rhinovirus or coronavirus infection without the bacterial pneumonia? I assume it happens. However the difficulty in obtaining that pneumonia-free diagnosis means negative culture, negative x-ray and negative CT. I have seen no data as to how often pneumonia is examined to not be there, but a whole lot of data shows that it is there when people look for it.

Pneumonia just means inflamed lungs.  It's a symptom.  It is not something you test for.

Quote

 

Okay, the most common cause of life-threatening pneumonia, as far as I know is CAP, and is bacterial, with strep supposedly being the most common culture. You're saying that pneumonia is not usually bacterial but in fact viral?

CAP = "community acquired pneumonia".  Does not denotate or connotate anything about the cause, only where it was acquired.  It can be bacterial, viral, or fungal.

If you have a source for affirming that bacterial causes are the most common, post a link.  I'm certainly not taking your word for it at this point.  The reading I've done says the most common result is "fuck, dunno."  No pathogen is detected / identified:

Gram-negative bacilli, Staphylococcus aureus, Chlamydia, Mycoplasma, and Legionella are each identified in 2%-5% of patients with pneumonia who require hospitalization. Viruses are found in 25% of patients, up to one-third of these have bacterial coinfection. Recent studies fail to identify a causative organism in more than 50% of cases, which remains the most important challenge to understanding lower respiratory infection. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=29028977

 

By final clinical diagnosis, 44 patients (17.0%) were uninfected. A causative bacterium was identified in only 60 (23.2%) cases. PCR identified a respiratory virus in 42 (16.2%), 12 with documented bacterial coinfection. In 119 (45.9%), no cause for CAP was found; 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=23523447

 

Among 2259 patients who had radiographic evidence of pneumonia and specimens available for both bacterial and viral testing, a pathogen was detected in 853 (38%)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=26172429

Basic math: no pathogen in 62%.

 

Quote

So, can people die from nothing more than a coronavirus or a rhinovirus as you write? I'm sure that it happens. But the medical literature suggests that when the clinician looks for pneumonia with the three main tools that they'll find pneumonia.

STOP conflating "pneumonia" and "bacterial infection".  It's akin to describing every wheeled vehicle to a bicycle, whether it's a bike, a motorbike, a car, or a bus, or a truck.. 

Quote

Breathe out a relatively harmless concentration of strep, let it incubate on the inside of that moist, body-warmed face mask and then re-inhale that bacterial stew, let the bacteria really grow like a lovely field of tiny flowers in that face-mounted incubator. Then breathe deep.

Poof! No election necessary in November when all these face-masked babies are suddenly dying from pneumonia ... er, excuse me, I meant dying from SARS-CoV-2.

I was gonna leave this until you came to your senses, but it appears that might not be anytime soon, so: if moist masks act as incubators for lung infections, how come construction workers like me, who often wear a mask all day, aren't constantly coming down with pneumonia?  

If you bother to look up studies (there aren't a lot), you won't find any that support your notion.  

16 hours ago, mikewof said:

Fictional?

Do you mean up to 100% coinfection as reported to the CDC by some states?

It seems in fact that even when confronted by actual data that shows coinfection, you still can't see the giant truck that is parked at the stoplight and you're going to go balls-to-the-wall through that intersection because your brain saw a green light somewhere, at some point.

You still haven't linked any actual data on co-infection, Mike.  A bit early to talk about me having been "confronted" with anything?

You just seem determined to conflate pneumonia with bacterial co-infection; but there's no rational basis for that.  Every/any source, if you bothered to read them, says it can be caused by viruses, fungi, mycoplasma, chemicals... as well as bacteria.

(I'm not the one calling that truck a bicycle)

 

Pneumonia can be caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia

 

Causes

Many germs can cause pneumonia. The most common are bacteria and viruses in the air we breathe. Your body usually prevents these germs from infecting your lungs. But sometimes these germs can overpower your immune system, even if your health is generally good.

Pneumonia is classified according to the types of germs that cause it and where you got the infection.

Community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is the most common type of pneumonia. It occurs outside of hospitals or other health care facilities. It may be caused by:

-  Bacteria. The most common cause of bacterial pneumonia in the U.S. is Streptococcus pneumoniae. This type of pneumonia can occur on its own or after you've had a cold or the flu. It may affect one part (lobe) of the lung, a condition called lobar pneumonia.

-  Bacteria-like organisms. Mycoplasma pneumoniae also can cause pneumonia. It typically produces milder symptoms than do other types of pneumonia. Walking pneumonia is an informal name given to this type of pneumonia, which typically isn't severe enough to require bed rest.

-  Fungi. This type of pneumonia is most common in people with chronic health problems or weakened immune systems, and in people who have inhaled large doses of the organisms. The fungi that cause it can be found in soil or bird droppings and vary depending upon geographic location.

-  Viruses. Some of the viruses that cause colds and the flu can cause pneumonia. Viruses are the most common cause of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years. Viral pneumonia is usually mild. But in some cases it can become very serious.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pneumonia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354204

 

Pneumonia can be caused by:

-  Bacteria

-  Certain chemicals

-  Fungi

-  Mycoplasmas, which are like bacteria and give you milder symptoms (sometimes called “walking pneumonia”)  Viruses (the same ones that cause colds and the flu can also give you pneumonia)

https://www.webmd.com/lung/qa/what-causes-pneumonia

 

Common Causes of Pneumonia

Viruses, bacteria, and fungi can all cause pneumonia.

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/causes.html

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10 hours ago, frenchie said:

They have "closed" data that covers recent time periods?  Link, please. 

Pretending it doesn't have the limitations that the very source explains it has... makes no fucking sense whatsoever.

You're still conflating pneumonia with co-infection.  Pneumonia is a common reaction to coronavirus, on its own.  Pneumonia just means lung inflammation.

Link?

Pneumonia just means inflamed lungs.  It's a symptom.  It is not something you test for.

CAP = "community acquired pneumonia".  Does not denotate or connotate anything about the cause, only where it was acquired.  It can be bacterial, viral, or fungal.

If you have a source for affirming that bacterial causes are the most common, post a link.  I'm certainly not taking your word for it at this point.  The reading I've done says the most common result is "fuck, dunno."  No pathogen is detected / identified:

Gram-negative bacilli, Staphylococcus aureus, Chlamydia, Mycoplasma, and Legionella are each identified in 2%-5% of patients with pneumonia who require hospitalization. Viruses are found in 25% of patients, up to one-third of these have bacterial coinfection. Recent studies fail to identify a causative organism in more than 50% of cases, which remains the most important challenge to understanding lower respiratory infection. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=29028977

 

By final clinical diagnosis, 44 patients (17.0%) were uninfected. A causative bacterium was identified in only 60 (23.2%) cases. PCR identified a respiratory virus in 42 (16.2%), 12 with documented bacterial coinfection. In 119 (45.9%), no cause for CAP was found; 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=23523447

 

Among 2259 patients who had radiographic evidence of pneumonia and specimens available for both bacterial and viral testing, a pathogen was detected in 853 (38%)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=26172429

Basic math: no pathogen in 62%.

 

STOP conflating "pneumonia" and "bacterial infection".  It's akin to describing every wheeled vehicle to a bicycle, whether it's a bike, a motorbike, a car, or a bus, or a truck.. 

I was gonna leave this until you came to your senses, but it appears that might not be anytime soon, so: if moist masks act as incubators for lung infections, how come construction workers like me, who often wear a mask all day, aren't constantly coming down with pneumonia?  

If you bother to look up studies (there aren't a lot), you won't find any that support your notion.  

You still haven't linked any actual data on co-infection, Mike.  A bit early to talk about me having been "confronted" with anything?

You just seem determined to conflate pneumonia with bacterial co-infection; but there's no rational basis for that.  Every/any source, if you bothered to read them, says it can be caused by viruses, fungi, mycoplasma, chemicals... as well as bacteria.

(I'm not the one calling that truck a bicycle)

 

Pneumonia can be caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia

 

Causes

Many germs can cause pneumonia. The most common are bacteria and viruses in the air we breathe. Your body usually prevents these germs from infecting your lungs. But sometimes these germs can overpower your immune system, even if your health is generally good.

Pneumonia is classified according to the types of germs that cause it and where you got the infection.

Community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is the most common type of pneumonia. It occurs outside of hospitals or other health care facilities. It may be caused by:

-  Bacteria. The most common cause of bacterial pneumonia in the U.S. is Streptococcus pneumoniae. This type of pneumonia can occur on its own or after you've had a cold or the flu. It may affect one part (lobe) of the lung, a condition called lobar pneumonia.

-  Bacteria-like organisms. Mycoplasma pneumoniae also can cause pneumonia. It typically produces milder symptoms than do other types of pneumonia. Walking pneumonia is an informal name given to this type of pneumonia, which typically isn't severe enough to require bed rest.

-  Fungi. This type of pneumonia is most common in people with chronic health problems or weakened immune systems, and in people who have inhaled large doses of the organisms. The fungi that cause it can be found in soil or bird droppings and vary depending upon geographic location.

-  Viruses. Some of the viruses that cause colds and the flu can cause pneumonia. Viruses are the most common cause of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years. Viral pneumonia is usually mild. But in some cases it can become very serious.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pneumonia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354204

 

Pneumonia can be caused by:

-  Bacteria

-  Certain chemicals

-  Fungi

-  Mycoplasmas, which are like bacteria and give you milder symptoms (sometimes called “walking pneumonia”)  Viruses (the same ones that cause colds and the flu can also give you pneumonia)

https://www.webmd.com/lung/qa/what-causes-pneumonia

 

Common Causes of Pneumonia

Viruses, bacteria, and fungi can all cause pneumonia.

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/causes.html

The "link" is the CDC, that's where I go my data. I'm looking at it on the screen as I type this. Just go to the CDC and download it. The recent periods are in process, the older ones are closed.

Pneumonia is absolutely something that "you test for." If the chest x-ray is negative (which up to half of them are) then a CT scan will give better info. And bacterial infection levels are tested too.

CAP - Community Acquired Pneumonia is usually bacterial. You disagree. I get it. I pulled up a few peer-reviewed journal articles for Len, which he ignored. But here is the Mayo Clinic's take on pneumonia and it disagrees with what you have written here, link. The Mayo Clinic's PIO tells us that the most common cause is bacterial. If you disagree with this, then let me know, and we can dig through some medical data. But The Mayo Clinic is usually dead nuts money in this kind of thing.

The most common cause of bacterial pneumonia in the U.S. is Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Maybe the Mayo Clinic's PIO was out to lunch and that was written by the janitor, so let's get a little more rigorous and use a peer-reviewed article from our own National Center for Bacteriological Information, the same one you used, link.

The most common cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is S. pneumoniae

I'm aware that there are other sources for pneumonia other than CAP, I was aware of it before you wrote about it, so we don't need to cover that. In this case, the CAP is significant, because the CDC shows the coinfection of pneumonia along with SARS-CoV-2. Yes, I'm aware that some of these "coinfections" could potentially indicated swelling in the alveolar region that maybe be due to a viral infection, or maybe due to air pollution, or smoking, or vape. I get it now, I got it before you wrote it, which is why I wrote the same thing several days ago. That causative paper you linked looks good, and those are the results from one hospital and one study. Applying the results of less than a hundred patients to every patient in every state seems a little wrong-headed to me, but it's okay. But if you look at your paper a little closer, you'll see that although they were like "fuck if we know what it is" you will also see that bacterial coinfection was the single most common identified cause of the pneumonia that they identified, and responsible for nearly half of the cases. For the other half, I get it, could be anything, maybe they inhaled too much vape, fuck if I know. But that bacteriological connection is clear even in that paper.

Most of your response was essentially denying the connection of bacterial infections that lead to pneumonia. If you want to get more into that, I'm happy to do it, it's interesting to me. For instance in one of the paper's you linked, the bacterial connection has fallen from about 90% after WWII, to about 10% now. That seems to be the result of effective antibiotics, given that in the USA, the vast majority of our diagnoses pneumonia cases never need hospitalization and are treated with common antibiotics. Your point about the lack of cause though, seems to support that idea that we're conquering the bacteriological causes and now we're transitioning over the pneumonia from harder-to-detect causes like ozone pollution, e-cigarettes, PM2.5, etc..

Frenchie, if you pull the CDC data the way I did, then we can be on the same page here.

First off, if you look at the CDC data, you'll see the coinfection stat has been steadily dropping on average, it started at about 60% in February, and now it's down to less than 40%. Assuming the SARS-CoV-2 infection hasn't in fact changed all that much, that suggests a change in treatment or diagnosis, more than a change in the infection.

Yes, I understand that pneumonia can come from all different things, but the CDC has taken to including that stat with their data. If you look at it, maybe we can discuss the implications. Obviously, you're going to see things I didn't and I might see things that you didn't. You've definitely lived in NYC long enough to know a few homeless people, and I can only assume you've spoken with them. I talk to my homeless friend as often as I can. He reports some really fucked up shit. It's very hard to find clean water. Homeless people are shitting anywhere they can, to the point that NYC supposedly suspended some of the shitting on the street rules. Restaurants used to have to allow access for their bathrooms, and I've seen NYC cops enforce that order. But now the restaurants are closed, and the bathrooms along with them. Libraries are closed. Health clubs are closed. Hygiene is difficult for some people, even more difficult than it was, and it was never easy for homeless people.

Picture this ... before the crisis, pneumonia strep was becoming a minor problem, as shown in the research paper you linked. We have about 60,000-some deaths per year from pneumonia, but compared to other places in the world, not a big deal, and as you write, a mixed bag of stuff, not all bacterial infections. Then everything shuts down due to SARS-CoV-2. People without healthcare, homeless people, already on the edge, and then with the quarantine they're pushed further. One of them comes into the hospital, can't breathe, clear sign of respiratory distress. Maybe they give him him a chest x-ray, maybe not. They can't do a whole lot when someone isn't Medicaid compliant. Up to 50% of pneumonia cases are x-ray negative depending on the conditions. So assume our friend here gets a modicum of attention, negative chest x-ray, no antibiotics, they send him on his way, he's dead within the week, clear indications of SARS-CoV-2, pure, textbook sudden acute respiratory syndrome, right?

The CDC data would not disagree with that either, right? It shows that a minority of people who died in NYC did not show a coinfection with pneumonia. And yet, as you linked, a whole lot of cases don't have a clear cause of the pneumonia. It could be ozone pollution, PM2.5 (and the research shows a connection between air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 deaths).

But then why do places with much lower death rate show much higher coinfections of the pneumonia? Doesn't that suggest perhaps that diagnosis of the pneumonia can perhaps lead to a positive outcome? When I charted the ratio of SARS-CoV-2 deaths to coinfections, NYC stood out in the field like a towering redwood surrounded by scrub brush. There is something undeniable going on, and it's not even dependent on the mechanism of the pneumonia itself, just the diagnosis of the pneumonia as a coinfection ...

Screen Shot 2020-04-18 at 10.46.18 AM.png

I wasn't going to post this chart, but it popped up here after I thought I deleted it. It's a shitty chart, and I can do some better analysis. But I left it in because the implication is interesting. It's the ratio of SARS-CoV-2 deaths to diagnosed pneumonia coinfections, but un-normalized. It should really be normalized. I'll try to make a better graph later, but in general, a smaller coinfection rate will obviously make a bigger number. And that number will then be magnified if there are a lot of deaths there.

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12 hours ago, Se7en said:

Sorry - I was responding to MikeWof who had said the economy was broken. As in irrepairable, throw it away and start again broken.

I was trying to keep the canoe of logic upright, which means I need to lean to the left a littler to counter Mike leaning to the right.

To push the analogy, yes the curtains are on fire, and we are going to take some more damage before we get this under control. Perhaps lose a room or two. We've already committed to taking some damage to kill off the mice, but equally we don't want to lose the whole house.

I've actually been a proponent of us needing to measure the cost of the response against the impact of the disease all along. Which is why I enguaged with Mike about some of the statistical analysis of the data. But I've ended up arguing with him as he goes down the path of insisting that the data supports his pet theories, while a bunch of us disagree. I thought Frenchie had demonstrated Mike's mistaken view of the data pefectly, and that horse didn't need any more beating.

FWIW, I think the data points to around a 1.5% mortality rate with medical intervention, with the potential of surging up to 10% in some areas where limited medical support meets other conflating factors. And it is time to see how far we can open society back up within the limit of staying in that 1.5% range. Australia's current conceit that we can eliminate the virus in Aus, and that is some sort of solution to this problem, doesn't strike me as sensible.

(And I say all this with parents and in laws who are right in the highest risk group. The best solution for society may incur personal tragedy for me, but that doesn't mean it is not the correct path for society as a whole)

Thank you, that all makes much more sense.  To the bolded part, I believe that we need to start thinking much more about what is best for society as a whole rather than the individual tragedies that are inevitable.  

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10 hours ago, frenchie said:

I was gonna leave this until you came to your senses, but it appears that might not be anytime soon, so: if moist masks act as incubators for lung infections, how come construction workers like me, who often wear a mask all day, aren't constantly coming down with pneumonia?  

If you bother to look up studies (there aren't a lot), you won't find any that support your notion.  

Yeah, I was going to jump on that as well - but mikey is too tedious to even bother with.  But for the last 8-9 years or so, I've been sailing with a cotton mask over my face as a sun protection since I am prone to burning no matter how much sunscreen I put on.  I sailed in one of the hottest, most humid places on the planet year round for 6-8 hours on the water a day every week, 50 weeks a year since the racing season was long.  Shockingly, I've had zero infection issues.  As usual, mike's only "authority" for information is his ass.  

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12 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Yeah, I was going to jump on that as well - but mikey is too tedious to even bother with.  But for the last 8-9 years or so, I've been sailing with a cotton mask over my face as a sun protection since I am prone to burning no matter how much sunscreen I put on.  I sailed in one of the hottest, most humid places on the planet year round for 6-8 hours on the water a day every week, 50 weeks a year since the racing season was long.  Shockingly, I've had zero infection issues.  As usual, mike's only "authority" for information is his ass.  

An American physician was recently quoted as attributing his impending death to a contaminated, non-sterile face mask, and then he died. So lessee ... "Female Canine Firestorm" didn't die out in the fresh air on his boat, and some guy surrounded by infected people did die.

So far, 50% death rate from nasty masks.

""When he got sick he told me, 'I know exactly when I got sick. It's when I had to reuse my mask,'" Lyons told The New York Post, confirming that Gabrin had also worked at St. John's Hospital in the New York City borough of Queens."

I use masks around dust and asbestos and fiberglass, because I don't want to inhale that shit. I assume Frenchie does the same. But walking around supermarkets and public parks and shoving them on the face of a three year old? You know what "Female Canine Firestorm", you should probably wear your sailing mask everywhere, not just sailing. Wear it to the supermarket and the public park just make sure you always keep a mask on your face, at all times.

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Frenchie, here's the normalized data from the CDC data, number of SARS-CoV-2 deaths divided by the pneumonia diagnosis ratio  ... I may have only stayed a Holiday Inn, but it does tend to suggest that diagnosing pneumonia is kinda, err, important?

New York City 114.4
New York 26.5
New Jersey 11.6
Michigan 7.6
Massachusetts 6.3
California 6.2
Washington 5.8
Pennsylvania 4.9
Florida 4.2
Louisiana 4.2
Illinois 4.1
Wisconsin 3.2
Maryland 2.8
Texas 2.3
Colorado 2.3
Virginia 1.9
Georgia 1.9
Mississippi 1.8
Iowa 1.1
South Carolina 1.1
Indiana 1.1
Arizona 1.0
Minnesota 1.0
Missouri 0.8
Oklahoma 0.8
Tennessee 0.8
Alabama 0.7
Vermont 0.6
Idaho 0.6
New Hampshire 0.6
Ohio 0.6
Nevada 0.6
Puerto Rico 0.5
Arkansas 0.5
Oregon 0.5
Kansas 0.3
Maine 0.3
Utah 0.2
South Dakota 0.1
Kentucky 0.1
District of Columbia 0.1
Montana 0.1
Rhode Island 0.1
Nebraska 0.0
New Mexico 0.0
Delaware 0.0
Alaska 0.0
Connecticut 0.0
Hawaii 0.0
North Carolina 0.0
North Dakota 0.0
West Virginia 0.0
Wyoming 0.0
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10 minutes ago, mikewof said:

You know what "Female Canine Firestorm", you should probably wear your sailing mask everywhere, not just sailing. Wear it to the supermarket and the public park just make sure you always keep a mask on your face, at all times.

I do wear it to the stores when needed.  Still alive, surprisingly.  

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14 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

Yeah, I was going to jump on that as well - but mikey is too tedious to even bother with.  But for the last 8-9 years or so, I've been sailing with a cotton mask over my face as a sun protection since I am prone to burning no matter how much sunscreen I put on.  I sailed in one of the hottest, most humid places on the planet year round for 6-8 hours on the water a day every week, 50 weeks a year since the racing season was long.  Shockingly, I've had zero infection issues.  As usual, mike's only "authority" for information is his ass.  

Yeah. Same in SE Asia. Billions of people on the highways and farm fields with some very untidy cloth over their faces for hours every day for decades now. Some PA wanna-be polymath should crank those numbers into their latest crackpot theory.

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11 minutes ago, mikewof said:

An American physician was recently quoted as attributing his impending death to a contaminated, non-sterile face mask, and then he died. So lessee ... "Female Canine Firestorm" didn't die out in the fresh air on his boat, and some guy surrounded by infected people did die.

So far, 50% death rate from nasty masks.

""When he got sick he told me, 'I know exactly when I got sick. It's when I had to reuse my mask,'" Lyons told The New York Post, confirming that Gabrin had also worked at St. John's Hospital in the New York City borough of Queens."

It couldn't be that the DR and other healthcare workers were exposed to the virus at many more times the rate that someone wearing a mask from the car to the supermarket and back to the car is.  

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2 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

It couldn't be that the DR and other healthcare workers were exposed to the virus at many more times the rate that someone wearing a mask from the car to the supermarket and back to the car is.  

Why are you trying to discuss logic and science? Put on your mask!

Oh, wait ... so you're suggesting that maybe a clean surgical mask is good and necessary in a hospital with sick people, but maybe an unsanitized mask isn't so good at the supermarket and in your car? Please continue ...

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28 minutes ago, Female Canine Firestorm said:

To the bolded part, I believe that we need to start thinking much more about what is best for society as a whole rather than the individual tragedies that are inevitable.  

Yet, it wasn’t inevitable, and in some (most) states it’s STILL not inevitable. 

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I'll deal with the rest later.  But Mike  -  have you fucking lost it? 

You're blatantly missing shit written right on the pages you're quoting from.

Do I need to make them red & bold and big, for you to notice them?

53 minutes ago, mikewof said:

CAP - Community Acquired Pneumonia is usually bacterial. You disagree. I get it. I pulled up a few peer-reviewed journal articles for Len, which he ignored. But here is the Mayo Clinic's take on pneumonia and it disagrees with what you have written here, link. The Mayo Clinic's PIO tells us that the most common cause is bacterial. If you disagree with this, then let me know, and we can dig through some medical data. But The Mayo Clinic is usually dead nuts money in this kind of thing.

The most common cause of bacterial pneumonia in the U.S. is Streptococcus pneumoniae.

 

I literally quoted that exact page, including that sentence, in the post you're responding to... 

 

53 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Maybe the Mayo Clinic's PIO was out to lunch and that was written by the janitor, so let's get a little more rigorous and use a peer-reviewed article from our own National Center for Bacteriological Information, the same one you used, link.

The most common cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is S. pneumoniae

Completely ignoring the title of the page, 

Bacterial Pneumonia

and the sentence literally 2 lines above the one you quote

"Community-acquired pneumonia can be caused by an extensive list of agents that include bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites, but this article will focus on bacterial pneumonia and its causes. "

 

Mike.  What the fuck is wrong with you ???

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frenchie said:

I'll deal with the rest later.  But Mike  -  have you fucking lost it? 

You're blatantly missing shit written right on the pages you're quoting from.

Do I need to make them red & bold and big, for you to notice them?

 

I literally quoted that exact page, including that sentence, in the post you're responding to... 

 

Completely ignoring the title of the page, 

Bacterial Pneumonia

and the sentence literally 2 lines above the one you quote

"Community-acquired pneumonia can be caused by an extensive list of agents that include bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites, but this article will focus on bacterial pneumonia and its causes. "

 

Mike.  What the fuck is wrong with you ???

 

 

 

 

Even in the papars you linked, when a cause could be found. bacterial pneumonia is the most common cause of pneumonia.

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

The "link" is the CDC, that's where I go my data. I'm looking at it on the screen as I type this. Just go to the CDC and download it. The recent periods are in process, the older ones are closed.

CDC has lots of pages.  I'm asking you which one you're referring to. 

AFAIK, based on what the pages I've been using say, they only "close" data at the end of the following year... because, like, that's what they say about it, on this page:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

To wit:

Quote

Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined. 

 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, frenchie said:

CDC has lots of pages.  I'm asking you which one you're referring to. 

AFAIK, based on what the pages I've been using say, they only "close" data at the end of the following year... because, like, that's what they say about it, on this page:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

To wit:

They have some in process vs. completed, I assume that you're right, that the data isn't closed until it's fully published.

Your point of mentioning that was because you suggested a reporting lag. That definitely exists. Will it invalidate that link to pneumonia? Maybe. Will "all deaths" not show that plummet? Maybe. But right now, the data that's on the CDC tracker is the most updated data there is.

I don't remember how to navigate to it, it's kind of buried in a flu-view thing, if memory serves. But you'll know it when you see it, because it has current 2020 data available for download, while most of the rest of CDC data is historical.

If you can't find it, I'll look for it when I can get in front of a computer instead of this phone.

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Most of your response was essentially denying the connection of bacterial infections that lead to pneumonia. If you want to get more into that, I'm happy to do it, it's interesting to me. For instance in one of the paper's you linked, the bacterial connection has fallen from about 90% after WWII, to about 10% now. That seems to be the result of effective antibiotics, given that in the USA, the vast majority of our diagnoses pneumonia cases never need hospitalization and are treated with common antibiotics. Your point about the lack of cause though, seems to support that idea that we're conquering the bacteriological causes and now we're transitioning over the pneumonia from harder-to-detect causes like ozone pollution, e-cigarettes, PM2.5, etc..

I'm just saying you can't conflate the two.  You are reading things into the data that is not actually provided by the data.  

1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Frenchie, if you pull the CDC data the way I did, then we can be on the same page here.

You won't link me to the specific page, though.  Is it the covid-19 page?  This one?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

Talking about the CSV file? 

I again insist that you are misinterpreting what the categories mean. 

Read what the page says about those categories:

Quote

Pneumonia and influenza deaths are included to provide context for understanding the completeness of COVID-19 mortality data and related trends. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Thus, increases in pneumonia or influenza deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality. Additionally, estimates of completeness for influenza or pneumonia deaths may provide context for understanding the lag in reporting for COVID-19 deaths, as it is anticipated that these causes would have similar delays in reporting, processing, and coding

"Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19" does not mean co-infections. 

Just means they're both on the death cert.  Doesn't tell you in what combination.  

Might help if you read the CDC guidance about filling out death certificates, and the difference between "immediate cause of death", "underlying cause of death" and "significant conditions that contributed to the death". 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

You would need access to the actual death certificates, to know how many of the "deaths with pneumonia and COVID-19" are co-infections. 

A significant number of them will be "pneumonia caused by COVID-19".

The CDC pretty much tells you that, in the guidance doc.  Look at the example death certificate on page 5, the one for a hypothetical "34-year-old female with no significant past medical history".  No co-infection.  Pneumonia as a result of the COVID-19. 

She would end up in that column, just the same as someone who had a bacterial co-infection.

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On 4/17/2020 at 5:15 PM, Grrr... said:
On 4/17/2020 at 5:11 PM, mikewof said:

Nah, we just had a few drinks one afternoon back in the 1990s and I bet him that he couldn't bang your mom.

Really? You knew my mom? What was she like?

And how did you possibly have time to sit down for a beer between being an environmental advisor, physicist, car mechanic, masusse (with happy endings), pharmacist, hunter, sailor, goodness! I get all a-flutter about how smart you must be. Your granny sounds pretty sharp too.

1990s? Andy Devine died in 1977.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Devine

Honestly, I was only familiar with him from the lyrics of "Pencil Thin Mustache."

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Even in the papars you linked, when a cause could be found. bacterial pneumonia is the most common cause of pneumonia.

Uh, no.  One of them did, 23% vs 16%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=23523447

One of the others found viruses predominated, when a cause could be found: viruses 23%, bacteria 11%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=26172429

The third, the one about historical change, had mixed results (in the post-2010 section). 

Bacteria dominated in the UK study, 29% to 20%; but in the US study, viruses dominated, at 27%, to bacteria's 15%.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=29028977

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25 minutes ago, frenchie said:

I'm just saying you can't conflate the two.  You are reading things into the data that is not actually provided by the data.  

You won't link me to the specific page, though.  Is it the covid-19 page?  This one?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

Talking about the CSV file? 

I again insist that you are misinterpreting what the categories mean. 

Read what the page says about those categories:

"Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19" does not mean co-infections. 

Just means they're both on the death cert.  Doesn't tell you in what combination.  

Might help if you read the CDC guidance about filling out death certificates, and the difference between "immediate cause of death", "underlying cause of death" and "significant conditions that contributed to the death". 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

You would need access to the actual death certificates, to know how many of the "deaths with pneumonia and COVID-19" are co-infections. 

A significant number of them will be "pneumonia caused by COVID-19".

The CDC pretty much tells you that, in the guidance doc.  Look at the example death certificate on page 5, the one for a hypothetical "34-year-old female with no significant past medical history".  No co-infection.  Pneumonia as a result of the COVID-19. 

She would end up in that column, just the same as someone who had a bacterial co-infection.

This is all correct. The data for each death can mean nearly anything except that the patient is still alive.

However, when you look at the numbers of lots of death certificates then it might mean something.

Why not put it into Excel, try to purge yourself of preconceived notions and see what you see?

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On 4/18/2020 at 6:12 AM, MR.CLEAN said:

The mouse murdered my Aunt Joanie this morning and 33,000 other americans over the course of two months.  That mouse is now the leading cause of deaths in America.

The more people on this board that have that experience, the more you sound like someone who should not be allowed back into this country.

I'm sorry for your loss.

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15 minutes ago, frenchie said:

Uh, no.  One of them did, 23% vs 16%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=23523447

One of the others found viruses predominated, when a cause could be found: viruses 23%, bacteria 11%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=26172429

The third, the one about historical change, had mixed results (in the post-2010 section). 

Bacteria dominated in the UK study, 29% to 20%; but in the US study, viruses dominated, at 27%, to bacteria's 15%.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=29028977

A hospital study or a general population study? A hospital study would show a lack of bacterial infections because pneumonia strep is deadly when untreated, but easy to manage with antibiotics. That's usually an administer-and-release kind of thing. Thus your paper that shows the reduction from 90% to 10%.

But viral infections and unknown causes are more difficult, more likely to end up in a hospital.

General population though? No way. Bacterial pneumonia is so common that most infections never see the inside of a hospital and some bugs are so innocuous without the coinfection (i.e. "walking" pneumonia) that they often are not even diagnosed.

It's the same thing with most viruses. The vast majority of rhinoviruses and coronavirus infections are asymptomatic. Coronaviruses especially are notorious for not even being apparent without a test.

Frenchie, a huge part of the reason that pneumonia is such a wrecking ball in Developing Nations compared to here is because they don't always have access to the effective antibiotics like we usually do.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Why are you trying to discuss logic and science? Put on your mask!

Oh, wait ... so you're suggesting that maybe a clean surgical mask is good and necessary in a hospital with sick people, but maybe an unsanitized mask isn't so good at the supermarket and in your car? Please continue ...

So the real question is:  am I more prone to hit that twitchy deer at 1000 yds with or without a mask on?  Please explain.  

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22 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

Honestly, I was only familiar with him from the lyrics of "Pencil Thin Mustache."

Damn!  THAT's where I've heard the name!  It was driving me crazy where I'd heard it before.  

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50 minutes ago, frenchie said:

 

"Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19" does not mean co-infections. 

 

It may not mean a coinfection, but you're suggesting that it EXCLUDES the coinfection.

That's not a logical conclusion given how common it is for bacteria to cause even mild pneumonia.

Now, you might read the medical journals that show the viral/bacterial coinfections.

I linked a lot of these for Len last week, but he was looking for a shitfight more than he was looking for knowledge.

This is as good a place to start as any, it suggests that otherwise non-deadly bacteria infections become very deadly with the coronavirus coinfection.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18380809/

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1 minute ago, chum said:

Just curious if you have any idea who this new guy Astro is? Or Fake News?

astro = Randumb and FN = bull gaytor.  Their "tells" are too obvious.  

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

An American physician was recently quoted as attributing his impending death to a contaminated, non-sterile face mask, and then he died. So lessee ... "Female Canine Firestorm" didn't die out in the fresh air on his boat, and some guy surrounded by infected people did die.

So far, 50% death rate from nasty masks.

""When he got sick he told me, 'I know exactly when I got sick. It's when I had to reuse my mask,'" Lyons told The New York Post, confirming that Gabrin had also worked at St. John's Hospital in the New York City borough of Queens."

I use masks around dust and asbestos and fiberglass, because I don't want to inhale that shit. I assume Frenchie does the same. But walking around supermarkets and public parks and shoving them on the face of a three year old? You know what "Female Canine Firestorm", you should probably wear your sailing mask everywhere, not just sailing. Wear it to the supermarket and the public park just make sure you always keep a mask on your face, at all times.

Re-using a mask, in a virus-laden workplace, and additionally not having access to gloves that don't rip every time you put them on (I googled your source), has absolutely nothing in common with the hypothesis you are defending. 

The doctor died from not being protected.  You're defending hypothetical self-infection after the mask turns into a breeding ground for one's own bacteria. 

Shame on you, Mike.  Using that cite, to support that argument, is Happy-Jack-level disingenuous bullshit. 

When did you turn into such a fuckwit?  You didn't use to be like that.

 

1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Your point of mentioning that was because you suggested a reporting lag. That definitely exists. Will it invalidate that link to pneumonia? Maybe.

It invalidates what I was responding to, originally: a graph that suggested "fewer Americans per capita are now dying than at any point in American history".  

 

9 minutes ago, mikewof said:

This is all correct. The data for each death can mean nearly anything except that the patient is still alive.

However, when you look at the numbers of lots of death certificates then it might mean something.

Why not put it into Excel, try to purge yourself of preconceived notions and see what you see?

I have, Mike.  That's how I knew the the conspiracy theories about COVID-19 deaths being misclassified flu deaths, was bullshit, because neither the numbers nor the timeframes matched up.

The difference between what you took from them, and what I took from them, is I bothered to read what CDC said the numbers represented, and took the numbers for what they actually represent.  You ignored every note and footnote and commentary on the page, and randomly decided they meant what you'd arbitrarily decided they meant, based on... I dunno, some good shit you've been smoking, or something. 

 

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At least some of the states are finally admitting the K-12 school year is over.  That they haven't cancelled summer school / summer camp yet is just typical can-kicking.  We aren't going to have any validated vaccine in 6 weeks and we certainly aren't going to have a widely distributed vaccine in 6 weeks.  No summer camp in America is so stupid as to take the liability of little Timmy getting sick and spreading COVID to all the relatives from THEIR camp.

States should just be honest with parents so they can have some time to internalize what they're going to have to do over the summer.

Frankly, the States should just be honest and admit we're not doing 'traditional school' next year either.  But they have a couple months before crossing that Rubicon.

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7 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Goddamn you are a whiny fucking bitch with all of the hindsight answers.

they are honest you stupid cunt, they dont have a playbook and everyone’s improvising. If you’ve got the answers NOW let’s fucking here them.

Such anger!  I presume you haven't been able to get out to CVS to get your Zoloft script refilled.  

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27 minutes ago, mikewof said:

A hospital study or a general population study? A hospital study would show a lack of bacterial infections because pneumonia strep is deadly when untreated, but easy to manage with antibiotics. That's usually an administer-and-release kind of thing. Thus your paper that shows the reduction from 90% to 10%.

But viral infections and unknown causes are more difficult, more likely to end up in a hospital.

General population though? No way. Bacterial pneumonia is so common that most infections never see the inside of a hospital and some bugs are so innocuous without the coinfection (i.e. "walking" pneumonia) that they often are not even diagnosed.

It's the same thing with most viruses. The vast majority of rhinoviruses and coronavirus infections are asymptomatic. Coronaviruses especially are notorious for not even being apparent without a test.

Frenchie, a huge part of the reason that pneumonia is such a wrecking ball in Developing Nations compared to here is because they don't always have access to the effective antibiotics like we usually do.

Could be.  They're all based on hospital admissions for pneumonia.

Not really relevant to the overall argument, though, which was simply about how you can't assume "pneumonia" = "bacterial co-infection".

18 minutes ago, mikewof said:

It may not mean a coinfection, but you're suggesting that it EXCLUDES the coinfection.

Nope.  Am not, have not, did not. 

 

Post 832:  "Could be bacterial, could be viral... could even be Covid-19."

Post 875:  "CAP = "community acquired pneumonia".  Does not denotate or connotate anything about the cause, only where it was acquired.  It can be bacterial, viral, or fungal."

Post 875: "STOP conflating "pneumonia" and "bacterial infection".  It's akin to describing every wheeled vehicle to a bicycle, whether it's a bike, a motorbike, a car, or a bus, or a truck."  (I would never say say bikes aren't vehicles; my bike is how I get around, 95% of the time.)

Post 875:  "You just seem determined to conflate pneumonia with bacterial co-infection; but there's no rational basis for that.  Every/any source, if you bothered to read them, says it can be caused by viruses, fungi, mycoplasma, chemicals... as well as bacteria."

post 898: "I'm just saying you can't conflate the two.  You are reading things into the data that is not actually provided by the data."

 

Don't try to strawman me, bro.  Maintain some fucking dignity.

 

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1 minute ago, d'ranger said:

We should start a pool to see how long Frenchie can hang with Mikey.  I am going with Monday happy hour.

Happy Hour, because once you decide arguing with somebody with their head up their ass is a waste of time, a drink tastes that much better.

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39 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Goddamn you are a whiny fucking bitch with all of the hindsight answers.

 

No, I was the guy who did the math months ago and knew where this was leading and kept pointing out that they were LEAVING OFF THE BOTTOM AXIS when they talked about FLATTENING THE CURVE.  We've ALWAYS known the answer - from the day the government looked at the data from the Diamond Princess the and said 'aw shit' or whatever Fauchi's favorite expression.  Bush knew the models.  Obama knew the models.  Trump was told the models (whether he internalized them or not is a totally different question).

From the first day we issued the first executive order, we knew where this was going.  Sci fi writers didn't invent the script - they copied EXISTING plans and forecasts.  And the forecasts say 'Sorry johnny, no school for you'.    If we're really lucky, there will be a preliminary treatment that takes the edge off the death toll.  If we're REALLY lucky, we have some experimental vaccines that take the edge off the infection rate by October, give or take a month - i.e., before the NEXT flu season.  If everything going EXCEEDINGLY well, there MIGHT be something other than empty stadiums NEXT year.  This summer is done.

None of that is Nostradamus.  That's is IN those plans that were briefed to Bush and to Obama and to Trump.

So fuck off and be safe.

 

 

 

 

image.png.9cb0667441b98b0d02baaecfee3a4930.png

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Just now, B.J. Porter said:

Which one is Random? I wasn't aware he'd lost the original username and come back with a sock.

I've met him, been to his house.

Random is Astro. You can tell by his use of the same stupid fucking gif nine million times.

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1 hour ago, cmilliken said:

At least some of the states are finally admitting the K-12 school year is over.  That they haven't cancelled summer school / summer camp yet is just typical can-kicking.  We aren't going to have any validated vaccine in 6 weeks and we certainly aren't going to have a widely distributed vaccine in 6 weeks.  No summer camp in America is so stupid as to take the liability of little Timmy getting sick and spreading COVID to all the relatives from THEIR camp.

States should just be honest with parents so they can have some time to internalize what they're going to have to do over the summer.

Frankly, the States should just be honest and admit we're not doing 'traditional school' next year either.  But they have a couple months before crossing that Rubicon.

Ohio teachers have been pretty much ordered not to flunk anybody,   Why pretend we are teaching them?

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1 minute ago, Lark said:

Ohio teachers have been pretty much ordered not to flunk anybody,   Why pretend we are teaching them?

There's no way to repeat the year so just clean up the lose ends and make the best of it.

My daughter has been doing online college at Oregon State for four years and is graduating in June.  It's pretty awful in truth but it does weed out the passionate from the lookie loos pretty quick.  She's gotten some interactions.

 

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9 minutes ago, astro said:

Great training for university.  No one flunks there either if you pay.

They just switch from engineering, science, pre professional to business, primary education or communications and graduate late.    Not everybody is wired for calculus and organic chem.   

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1 hour ago, frenchie said:

Re-using a mask, in a virus-laden workplace, and additionally not having access to gloves that don't rip every time you put them on (I googled your source), has absolutely nothing in common with the hypothesis you are defending. 

The doctor died from not being protected.  You're defending hypothetical self-infection after the mask turns into a breeding ground for one's own bacteria. 

Shame on you, Mike.  Using that cite, to support that argument, is Happy-Jack-level disingenuous bullshit. 

When did you turn into such a fuckwit?  You didn't use to be like that.

 

It invalidates what I was responding to, originally: a graph that suggested "fewer Americans per capita are now dying than at any point in American history".  

 

I have, Mike.  That's how I knew the the conspiracy theories about COVID-19 deaths being misclassified flu deaths, was bullshit, because neither the numbers nor the timeframes matched up.

The difference between what you took from them, and what I took from them, is I bothered to read what CDC said the numbers represented, and took the numbers for what they actually represent.  You ignored every note and footnote and commentary on the page, and randomly decided they meant what you'd arbitrarily decided they meant, based on... I dunno, some good shit you've been smoking, or something. 

 

"Shame" on me? WTF? What's the difference between the inside of our lungs and a relatively sterile hospital hallway?

Many of us have low-levels of bacteria in our respiratory system. Our lungs are not a sterile organ. They are exposed to the environment, and we inhale everything that is in the world. Self-infection is absolutely a real thing, and trapping all the shit from the nose and the throat for convenient inhalation is not smart, regardless your ability to ignore it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120011/ - "Most instances of pneumonia are attributable to self-infection with one or more types of microbes that originate in the nose and mouth."

As far as your "fuckwit" insult, I'm trying to be patient with this conversation with you regardless that you keep reverting to your best impression of Random, err, Astro, whatever. That's because you and I have had functional discussions in the past before Random infected you with his unique brand of brain-dead nonsense.

Back the discussion ...

Now, as per the CDC data -- which might be modified as you claim, but as it stands at this moment in time -- fewer Americans are now dying per capita than at any time in our history. The quarantine may or may not impact the spread of a virus (I suspect it will barely make a difference) but it seems to have made a huge difference in people dying in traffic accidents, workplace accidents, hospital error, and air pollution. The CDC data shows this enormous drop off in the "all deaths" data.

As for the "conspiracy" with flu deaths, I believe you're confusing me with someone else, I didn't claim that.

Once again, please look at the CDC data and get back to me about the relative lack of pneumonia diagnoses coming from NYC. It might mean nothing, or it might mean something. But I suspect that either way, it's more than just an opportunity to pull a Len and just shitfight for the sake of shitfighting.

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3 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

There's no way to repeat the year so just clean up the lose ends and make the best of it.

My daughter has been doing online college at Oregon State for four years and is graduating in June.  It's pretty awful in truth but it does weed out the passionate from the lookie loos pretty quick.  She's gotten some interactions.

 

Good for her.    The GFs son is having trouble adapting,   He was doing great in engineering while playing soccer, now he’s struggling without the interaction.

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4 minutes ago, mikewof said:

"Shame" on me? WTF? What's the difference between the inside of our lungs and a relatively sterile hospital hallway?

Many of us have low-levels of bacteria in our respiratory system. Our lungs are not a sterile organ. They are exposed to the environment, and we inhale everything that is in the world. Self-infection is absolutely a real thing, and trapping all the shit from the nose and the throat for convenient inhalation is not smart, regardless your ability to ignore it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120011/ - "Most instances of pneumonia are attributable to self-infection with one or more types of microbes that originate in the nose and mouth."

As far as your "fuckwit" insult, I'm trying to be patient with this conversation with you regardless that you keep reverting to your best impression of Random, err, Astro, whatever. That's because you and I have had functional discussions in the past before Random infected you with his unique brand of brain-dead nonsense.

Back the discussion ...

Now, as per the CDC data -- which might be modified as you claim, but as it stands at this moment in time -- fewer Americans are now dying per capita than at any time in our history. The quarantine may or may not impact the spread of a virus (I suspect it will barely make a difference) but it seems to have made a huge difference in people dying in traffic accidents, workplace accidents, hospital error, and air pollution. The CDC data shows this enormous drop off in the "all deaths" data.

As for the "conspiracy" with flu deaths, I believe you're confusing me with someone else, I didn't claim that.

Once again, please look at the CDC data and get back to me about the relative lack of pneumonia diagnoses coming from NYC. It might mean nothing, or it might mean something. But I suspect that either way, it's more than just an opportunity to pull a Len and just shitfight for the sake of shitfighting.

At least you stopped during about how this virus is no big deal. 
 

frenchie, he was droning on and on about how the virus couldn’t kill, it was your immune system, or co-infection, blah blah blah.

 

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19 minutes ago, Lark said:

Ohio teachers have been pretty much ordered not to flunk anybody,   Why pretend we are teaching them?

Same in Hell A:  https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492569-los-angeles-school-district-wont-give-any-students-failing-grade-during

Why even bother?  

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1 hour ago, frenchie said:

Could be.  They're all based on hospital admissions for pneumonia.

Not really relevant to the overall argument, though, which was simply about how you can't assume "pneumonia" = "bacterial co-infection".

Nope.  Am not, have not, did not. 

 

Post 832:  "Could be bacterial, could be viral... could even be Covid-19."

Post 875:  "CAP = "community acquired pneumonia".  Does not denotate or connotate anything about the cause, only where it was acquired.  It can be bacterial, viral, or fungal."

Post 875: "STOP conflating "pneumonia" and "bacterial infection".  It's akin to describing every wheeled vehicle to a bicycle, whether it's a bike, a motorbike, a car, or a bus, or a truck."  (I would never say say bikes aren't vehicles; my bike is how I get around, 95% of the time.)

Post 875:  "You just seem determined to conflate pneumonia with bacterial co-infection; but there's no rational basis for that.  Every/any source, if you bothered to read them, says it can be caused by viruses, fungi, mycoplasma, chemicals... as well as bacteria."

post 898: "I'm just saying you can't conflate the two.  You are reading things into the data that is not actually provided by the data."

 

Don't try to strawman me, bro.  Maintain some fucking dignity.

 

 

There is lots of peer-reviewed research to connects the severity of SAR-CoV-2 with coinfections of different types, including viral/bacterial and viral/viral. That particular coronavirus -- even when measured-- has a survival rate of about 99%. And when the mass of asymptomatic infections can be accounted (which we don't do in the USA) then the survival rates is right around where common coronaviruses are. So what's the difference? The common coronaviruses kill people primariyly with the coinfections, could it be that SARS-CoV-2 also primarily kills people with the coinfections?

Look at what's in front of us, and let's not get into the weeds ...

  1. We have lots of evidence that points to real problems with viral/bacterial coinfections and SARS,
  2. Bacterial infections is the most common pneumonia, so common that most cases aren't even diagnosed,
  3. The CDC does gather data on people who have both SARS-CoV-2 and pneumonia, regardless the source or cause,
  4. NYC shows relatively few of these pneumonia diagnoses,
  5. Does SARS-CoV-2 works the same way in NYC as it does in say, L.A. or Miami?
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15 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

At least you stopped during about how this virus is no big deal. 
 

frenchie, he was droning on and on about how the virus couldn’t kill, it was your immune system, or co-infection, blah blah blah.

 

If I would have known that my words were going to be read by someone as willfully ignorant as you, I would have been careful to fill in the blanks a bit better.

My position all through this remains relatively unchanged ... the SARS virus almost always leads to asymptomatic infections, much like any other coronavirus, but there is obviously something about this one that makes it different, and it seems to be the coinfection.

 

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18 minutes ago, chum said:

I feel for the kids who were going to graduate. My daughter has really had the wind taken out of her sails. She had a 3.9 but she’s letting her AP test prep for next years placement slide I think. She’s in a bad place. Her boyfriend lost his baseball scholarship and he’s feeling lost too, I don’t blame him. I don’t know how they can process all the uncertainty when we can’t even begin to ourselves.

Roughly same with my kids. My daughter was supposed to graduate high school before she turned 18, she had one test to go, and this happened. The other daughter's dance career was shut down when her team's venue was closed. They both try to keep their spirits up, but unlike the vast numbers of Boomers, they don't particularly enjoy sitting around the house waiting for nothing.

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