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Lot of critics, but when should shutdown be lifted?


Controversial_posts

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2 hours ago, SCARECROW said:

Just watching the US press conference.  Scary shit.

 

2 hours ago, SCARECROW said:

Side question, why would you have the President and Vice President in the same room right now little own standing shoulder to shoulder?

"Just watching the US press conference. Scary shit.

Side question, why would you have the President and Vice President in the same room right now little own standing shoulder to shoulder?"

Scarecrow Answer.

The best place to "hide" a body (being your own fuckups) is in "open view" and no better place is a "shipwreck" and everyone is on the bridge just before hitting the rocks.

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3 hours ago, SCARECROW said:

Side question, why would you have the President and Vice President in the same room right now little own standing shoulder to shoulder?

Because they are in on the gig to psych people out and completely divide and conquer, while robbing us blind.

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33 minutes ago, g7tunison said:

Because they are in on the gig to psych people out and completely divide and conquer, while robbing us blind.

Its the American way..

good luck, and carry on.

stay safe, stay inside, and don't be a spreader.

 

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Germany is very carefully easing some measures now. Shops up to 800 m2 are allowed to open again. Reproduction Rate of Virus is now down to 0.7, due to strict rules over the last 4 weeks. Seems US and UK were just far too slow to act against the virus, so it will take far longer for them to come to that point. 

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14 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

Germany is very carefully easing some measures now. Shops up to 800 m2 are allowed to open again. Reproduction Rate of Virus is now down to 0.7, due to strict rules over the last 4 weeks. Seems US and UK were just far too slow to act against the virus, so it will take far longer for them to come to that point. 

Which makes sense. The goal of "flattening the curve" wasn't to prevent infection, it was to control the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming hospitals. They got it under control, now it needs to run its course in a controlled way.

Regarding the reproduction rate, that's probably unreliable though, b/c the antibody tests that have been done (California, Netherlands, China) are all indicating that something like 50-70 times more people have antibodies than were tested / counted positive. It's spreading mostly asymptomatically, until it hits someone who's especially vulnerable to it.

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3 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

It will still take a long time until a vaccine is ready and we can come back to normality. Expect middle of 2021. Don't know what Trump is dreaming about. 

I think Trump’s goal yesterday was to try and pass any ongoing why are we still in lock down pressure off to the states.  

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WHO issues guidelines for coming off social distancing measures today: 

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331773/WHO-2019-nCoV-Adjusting_PH_measures-2020.1-eng.pdf

Nothing surprising here.  Do it slowly, do it in low risk and low population-density areas first, be prepared to reverse the process.  Don't do it unless there is a rigorous testing regime in place. 

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1 hour ago, Starboard!! said:

Which makes sense. The goal of "flattening the curve" wasn't to prevent infection, it was to control the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming hospitals. They got it under control, now it needs to run its course in a controlled way.

Regarding the reproduction rate, that's probably unreliable though, b/c the antibody tests that have been done (California, Netherlands, China) are all indicating that something like 50-70 times more people have antibodies than were tested / counted positive. It's spreading mostly asymptomatically, until it hits someone who's especially vulnerable to it.

Cite please. 

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2 hours ago, Starboard!! said:

.......b/c the antibody tests that have been done (California, Netherlands, China) are all indicating that something like 50-70 times more people have antibodies than were tested / counted positive. It's spreading mostly asymptomatically, until it hits someone who's especially vulnerable to it.

"50-70 times more people have  antibodies than were tested /"

"It's spreading mostly asymptomatically"

Who is saying that????

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The Navy just tested the entire crew of the Roosevelt and found 600 cases, 60% of them are asymptomatic.
 

The other factor to consider is that the testing for active cases only gives accurate negative results at certain phases of the infection, when the virus is detectable the nose or throat.

But as an expert sailor /scientist, you knew that I bet.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

50-70 times more people have  antibodies than were tested /"

"It's spreading mostly asymptomatically"

Who is saying that?

That's depending a lot to how many people you test. In GER it is expexted to be 10x. If you don't test like the UK to make the propaganda machine make you look good in the international ranking lists, yes it might be 50 - 70x, who knows? 

In the Gangelt study the infected cases were about 15% of the whole population, while 0.37% of the cases died. The amount of people with immunity was 5 times higher than the official numbers. If you say the UK has 10000 death, this could mean that in reality 3 million people are or were infected and spread the virus. Be careful with these numbers as Gangelt is a very small town and had only one superspreading event during Karnival, Germany did a lot of tests and tried to stop the pandemic very early. 

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On 4/13/2020 at 7:12 PM, A.M.S. said:

It's almost time...... A bunch of democratic governors want to start planning to open things up.  

The media has gone from "Trump is a horrible person who only cares about money and wants to open up the economy too soon!" To "Trump is a horrible autocrat who thinks he can tell governors not to open up their states!".    

The 180 degree flip on the narrative is the tell.........take it to the bank!

I was only off by 3 days......

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8 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

I was only off by 3 days......

My understanding is if you are whistling while you walk, the deceased will stay underground.

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6 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

The Navy just tested the entire crew of the Roosevelt and found 600 cases, 60% of them are asymptomatic..

...But as an expert sailor /scientist , you knew that I bet .

"tested entire crew....and found 600 cases, 60% of them are asymptomatic .."

But Controversial you forgot a lot of words like;

-  asymptomatic "up until this point." 

-  Up until this point 600 positives is only 13% of the tests taken (4,500 or 94% of the total crew of 4,800 tested so far.)

-  Up until this point 360 asymptomatic cases is only 8% of total tests taken, leaving 92% of the tests taken either negative (79%) or symptomatic (13%).

- Those tested are largely young, healthy people.

You don't have to be an expert at anything to notice when some dickhead deliberately leaves out important information.

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13 hours ago, Rain Man said:

Don't do it unless there is a rigorous testing regime in place. 

Exactly and conjunction with now interactive test/tracing. For instance Australian Government has issued a App.

Uses Bluetooth to track Coronavirus positives and the people they come into contact with and visa versa. Govt not ruled out making tracing app compulsory if not enough people install it voluntarily.

Sth Korea and Taiwan have had similiar in place very early (China now) as already part of their Pandemic Plan incl a GPS bracelet for geo fencing positives in self quarantine. That has enabled them to both have good test/trace, low fatality rates and "soft" shutdowns.

Lot of Asia and Oceania with previous SARS experience were ready and all over this ruthless virus bitch. Their low fatality numbers show that. For instance around same number of health workers have died in NYC than all of Australia (60).

US is not even in the same ballpark 

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"tested entire crew....and found 600 cases, 60% of them are asymptomatic .."

But Controversial you forgot a lot of words like;

-  asymptomatic "up until this point." 

-  Up until this point 600 positives is only 13% of the tests taken (4,500 or 94% of the total crew of 4,800 tested so far.)

-  Up until this point 360 asymptomatic cases is only 8% of total tests taken, leaving 92% of the tests taken either negative (79%) or symptomatic (13%).

- Those tested are largely young, healthy people.

You don't have to be an expert at anything to notice when some dickhead deliberately leaves out important information.

First infection was 38 days ago, they should be showing in much greater numbers by now if your theory were correct. More likely that young folks are mostly unaffected, either not catching the virus at all, or failing to show substantial symptoms. But only a handful initially showed symptoms, and they were in the reactor division. I doubt only the symptomatic ones infected everyone.

...also laughed out loud at your “fit” impression. Ever been on a USN warship? Lot of chubby 19 year olds...and the chiefs...well.

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31 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

First infection was 38 days ago, they should be showing in much greater numbers by now if your theory were correct. More likely that young folks are mostly unaffected, either not catching the virus at all, or failing to show substantial symptoms. But only a handful initially showed symptoms, and they were in the reactor division. I doubt only the symptomatic ones infected everyone.

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Cunt you never answer a question or cite your opinion ...you just pull more shit out of your arse.

33 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

..also laughed out loud at your “fit” impression. Ever been on a USN warship? Lot of chubby 19 year olds...and the chiefs...well.

Cunt your opinion that 'fat people" should just roll the virus dice and fuck them is well documented.

 

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Cunt you never answer a question or cite your opinion ...you just pull more shit out of your arse.

Sigh... i post citations and you just change the subject... see, you have already forgotten about the “ventilator shortage” that never happened. Did you see NYC is returning ventilators now?

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12 hours ago, jgh66 said:

 If you don't test like the UK to make the propaganda machine make you look good in the international ranking lists

UK isn't testing as much as it ought to be or planned to be because acquisition of reliable tests was fucked up. Not great but neither was it some dark conspiracy to look good. It baffles me in what possible way you imagine the UK "looks good in the international ranking lists". 

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Sigh... i post citations and you just change the subject... see, you have already forgotten about the “ventilator shortage” that never happened. Did you see NYC is returning ventilators now?

Did you hear that from one of your meetings?

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2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

. They need to understand that their risk profile is much greater and take extra precautions to protect themselves.

"They need to understand that their risk profile is much greater and take extra precautions to protect themselves."

They understand and doing their fucking precautionsry best.

Any chance you demanding getting your life back to normal as you reakon most cases are asymptomatic (even though they transmit) can drop by Home Depot and pick up some shovels.

They have run out of basement. NewJersey police find 18 bodies at care home's 'makeshift morgue' 

 

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48 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

If you don't test as much as others, you will not be able to report as many cases as others, which makes you look less affected. Germany reports 140000 cases and 4000 death. UK same cases, but 14000 death? 

Just flatten the curve by fewer tests? 

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

You don't "flatten the curve" by doing fewer tests. You might rescale the y-axis but that isn't "flatten".

61299.jpg

 

Apart from which, the statistic people mostly care about is deaths.

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3 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

... you have already forgotten about the “ventilator shortage” that never happened. Did you see NYC is returning ventilators now?

“the ventilator shortage” that never happened.

So a US ventilator shortage a hoax???

What is the colour of the sky in your world??

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On 4/13/2020 at 5:40 PM, Controversial_posts said:

Everyone seems to have their opinions of what governments or people are doing wrong, would be curious what the louder assholes here think should be done. In other words, shut it down until there’s no cases left, another two weeks, whatever your policy proscription is.  
 

 

You first. Hit the beaches, the clubs and don’t forget to confess at church on Sunday. Then get back to us.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

“the ventilator shortage” that never happened.

So a US ventilator shortage a hoax???

What is the colour of the sky in your world??

 

Don’t take my word for, take Governor Cuumo’s. Here he is returning unneeded ventilators, twit.  https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-b-roll-audio-photos-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-returns-ventilators-thanks-pathways

Or this: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-crisis-ventilator-shortages-have-not-come-to-pass/

Or here: https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/16/new-york-sending-100-ventilators-to-new-jersey-1277241


As it turned out, the ventilators were not needed to the extent that the the media frenzy portrayed. People like you seized on it though, because it presented a simple solution - just make more and we will be safe.

But, (1)  unfortunately they were not as effective as hoped (which we knew already from Chinese research papers), and (2) there were not so many ICU patients that we ran out. Which is a good thing you idiot.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Don’t take my word for, take Governor Cuumo’s. Here he is returning unneeded ventilators, twit.  https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-b-roll-audio-photos-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-returns-ventilators-thanks-pathways

Or this: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-crisis-ventilator-shortages-have-not-come-to-pass/

Or here: https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/16/new-york-sending-100-ventilators-to-new-jersey-1277241


As it turned out, the ventilators were not needed to the extent that the the media frenzy portrayed. People like you seized on it though, because it presented a simple solution - just make more and we will be safe.

But, (1)  unfortunately they were not as effective as hoped (which we knew already from Chinese research papers), and (2) there were not so many ICU patients that we ran out. Which is a good thing you idiot.

"Don’t take my word for, take Governor  Cuumo’s. Here he is returning unneeded ventilators, twit."  

People like you seized on it though, because it presented a simple solution - just make more and we will be safe.

So NYC ventilator stock levels are ventilator stock levels everywhere. So your xenophobia respects state lines. 

I didn't seize on ventilators you did fuckstick. You said "ventilator shortages is a red herring" and "hospitals are laying off staff."

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You really are very dangerous cunt.  

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9 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Don’t take my word for, take Governor Cuumo’s. Here he is returning unneeded ventilators, twit.  https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-b-roll-audio-photos-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-returns-ventilators-thanks-pathways

Or this: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-crisis-ventilator-shortages-have-not-come-to-pass/

Or here: https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/16/new-york-sending-100-ventilators-to-new-jersey-1277241


As it turned out, the ventilators were not needed to the extent that the the media frenzy portrayed. People like you seized on it though, because it presented a simple solution - just make more and we will be safe.

But, (1)  unfortunately they were not as effective as hoped (which we knew already from Chinese research papers), and (2) there were not so many ICU patients that we ran out. Which is a good thing you idiot.

 

 

The article you cite mentions an unsolicited donation of 35 ventilators...a paltry number in comparison with what  N.Y.  might/will/does need. You're gonna have to do a little better than that. If you need something more concrete to visualize, replace a ventilator with a refrigerated truck backed up to the hospital loading zone. 

If that doesn't work for you, maybe 4X deaths in N.Y.C. in the last month vs total deaths during 9/11 might compute. 

If that doesn't compute. Try to spell M-O-R-O-N. I know its tough. Keep repeating it until it becomes a little easier and have a good look in the mirror when you come to.

Edit: And if by chance N.Y. can avoid reaching total ventilator capacity, consider it successful governance. 

 

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1 hour ago, Not for nothing said:

what a great King; Trump's Saturday coronavirus briefing was littered with false claims, old and new

- Germany 4K deaths or 49 per million pop.

- US  37K deaths or 112 per million pop.

- Europe on average is 2 weeks ahead of the US.

- US the New Daily Deaths Rate is increasing, European countries decreasing.

- Europe population density (increasing the transmission risk and advancing fatality timing) on average 8 times higher than the US.

 

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1 hour ago, fufkin said:

The article you cite mentions an unsolicited donation of 35 ventilators...a paltry number in comparison with what  N.Y.  might/will/does need. You're gonna have to do a little better than that. If you need something more concrete to visualize, replace a ventilator with a refrigerated truck backed up to the hospital loading zone. 

If that doesn't work for you, maybe 4X deaths in N.Y.C. in the last month vs total deaths during 9/11 might compute. 

If that doesn't compute. Try to spell M-O-R-O-N. I know its tough. Keep repeating it until it becomes a little easier and have a good look in the mirror when you come to.

Edit: And if by chance N.Y. can avoid reaching total ventilator capacity, consider it successful governance

Just weeks ago, NYC was saying they needed 40,000 ventilators, now they don’t and have enough to give to others. Pointing that out makes me a moron?

Unlike some here, I’ve been reading medical journals and not relying on 25yr old journalism majors to freak me out, so I could see some time ago that ventilators were not going to save the day. Another solution would be needed.

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The number that Fauci was backing Cuomo up on was 30,000 btw, and that is a number that refers to a possible apex.

Again let me use some simple analogies that might make more sense to you. Would you send a soldier into combat with a) less ammo then he needs b)just enough c) just enough plus insurance d) double what he needs?

Ok, now that that laborious analogy is done with, lets get to some numbers, not from a 25 yr old journalism student, but from a 17 year old kid from Seattle who started his Covid stats tracker at the outset of the outbreak some 2 1/2 months before Moron #1 commissioned '117' Google engineers to build a basic website. 

http://ncov2019.live

Now if you bother to actually examine the stats, you'll find that, roughly 3.9% daily increase of 16,000 is 624. That represents, at a flatline or even gradual decline over the coming weeks and months, the daily death toll in the state you are second guessing. 

Your rhetoric is both tiresome, and in the context of what people are facing on the front lines, just plain sad.

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2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Just weeks ago, NYC was saying they needed 40,000 ventilators, now they don’t and have enough to give to others. Pointing that out makes me a moron?

Unlike some here, I’ve been reading medical journals and not relying on 25yr old journalism majors to freak me out, so I could see some time ago that ventilators were not going to save the day. Another solution would be needed.

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You say: "I could see some time ago that ventilators were not going to save the day. Another solution would be needed."

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Yes that "solution" you speak of I think the term when a Government carries out your wishes is called  "Democide." 

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2 hours ago, fufkin said:

Your rhetoric is both tiresome, and in the context of what people are facing on the front lines, just plain sad.

Mate when he keeps repeating the same shit in the face of facts put to him and the suffering occuring on a global scale, it is neither tiresome nor sad anymore.... it's moved on to being his "religion." Fuck him.

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On 4/18/2020 at 6:55 AM, Starboard!! said:

Which makes sense. The goal of "flattening the curve" wasn't to prevent infection, it was to control the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming hospitals. They got it under control, now it needs to run its course in a controlled way.

Regarding the reproduction rate, that's probably unreliable though, b/c the antibody tests that have been done (California, Netherlands, China) are all indicating that something like 50-70 times more people have antibodies than were tested / counted positive. It's spreading mostly asymptomatically, until it hits someone who's especially vulnerable to it.

 

On 4/18/2020 at 8:52 AM, dfw_sailor said:

Cite please

 

On 4/18/2020 at 9:01 AM, jack_sparrow said:

"50-70 times more people have  antibodies than were tested /"

"It's spreading mostly asymptomatically"

Who is saying that????

BUMP...time to flush the religious out.

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5 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Unlike some here, I’ve been reading medical journals and not relying on 25yr old journalism majors to freak me out,..

Controversial you say; "Unlike some here, I’ve been reading medical journals  and not relying on 25yr old journalism majors to freak me out, .."

So using SA's search function this is all I could find of cited medical journals supporting your Coronavirus posts across a number of threads, two threads of which you are the OP, do one would naturally think hot some solid opinion happening.

This is what I found.

- The Chicago Tribune

- A Website called Beckers Hospital Review for practitioner advertising having a editorial.

- The New York Times 

- A Blog from a Boston Medical Practise about testing the homeless for Convid.

- The Miami Sun Sentinal

- A Graph of unknown origin

You really are a fucking cracker. 

 

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20 hours ago, jgh66 said:

If you don't test as much as others, you will not be able to report as many cases as others, which makes you look less affected. Germany reports 140000 cases and 4000 death. UK same cases, but 14000 death? 

Just flatten the curve by fewer tests? 

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

Or have a better healthcare system perhaps? A healthy and younger population maybe? Certainly better dental health.

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On 4/17/2020 at 7:59 PM, SCARECROW said:

Side question, why would you have the President and Vice President in the same room right now little own standing shoulder to shoulder?

The Don likes to be able to smell Mike’s fear.

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On 4/17/2020 at 10:59 AM, SCARECROW said:

Side question, why would you have the President and Vice President in the same room right now little own standing shoulder to shoulder?

To make it a clean sweep. :ph34r:

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Controversial you say; "Unlike some here, I’ve been reading medical journals  and not relying on 25yr old journalism majors to freak me out, .."

So using SA's search function this is all I could find of cited medical journals supporting your Coronavirus posts across a number of threads, two threads of which you are the OP, do one would naturally think hot some solid opinion happening.

This is what I found.

- The Chicago Tribune

- A Website called Beckers Hospital Review for practitioner advertising having a editorial.

- The New York Times 

- A Blog from a Boston Medical Practise about testing the homeless for Convid.

- The Miami Sun Sentinal

- A Graph of unknown origin

You really are a fucking cracker. 

 

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Well you rejected the first study I posted showing low ventilator survival rates from Wuhan, so I figured you only understand graphs and news articles.

If you want scientific literature Here’s a pre-print discussing the impact on R0 of theorized asymtomatic spreaders, I doubt you can follow it though...https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.14098.pdf

 

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See, exactly as I suspected. I post an article by a mathematician, and you call it snake oil. At first I thought you were a doctor, but now you’re a mathematician too?

Face it, you have made up your mind and will reject any new information or analysis that threatens your ideas.

Which is really fucking dumb, considering its a NOVEL virus, there’s new info coming out every day.

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Jack Sparrow,I don’t blame you for not sleeping- the plan seems to be to get things down to a dull roar-  there’s enough hospital capacity that if you get a bad case of  COVID-19,  you can die there instead of at home.  And Medical personnel continue to take it on the chin because you know,  we don’t have enough PPE, and adequate testing for everyone, especially because testing asymptomatic but infectious is apparently too big a pain in the butt......  this is just crowd control pure and simple.  If you need any more proof than that, look who has adequate protection and testing.  Outsourcing is too tempting for too many-  if you look for action, rather than words, how much n95 production capacity is being expanded in, say, the US of A?  The administration likes to announce 100,000’s, but in a country of hundreds of millions?  It’s a tiny pathetic number, worse, it’s lying with numbers, and because of too many in authority, just like the communist suck up bosses in Wuhan, the bottom of their pyramid gets fucked.  Like stay home or get fucked.

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

See, exactly as I suspected. I post an article by a mathematician, and you call it snake oil. At first I thought you were a doctor, but now you’re a mathematician too?

Face it, you have made up your mind and will reject any new information or analysis that threatens your ideas.

Which is really fucking dumb, considering its a NOVEL virus, there’s new info coming out every day.

And yet you will not provide a cite for the Stanford study "50 to 60 times expected population infection,  therefore huge asymptopic".  If you were honest you would have already declared there are significant issues with the design and execution of the test (self selection via facebook registration, not random,  no control group,  likely false positives in the test method,  to name just a few).

But you and chum have been throwing that study around for about a week now with the claim of 50 to 60 as proof the rest of the scientific community is either stupid,  or in deep state conspiracy. 

Then you put up a mathematical paper regarding modeling.  Woop de doo. I'll summarize the 4 pages for you in one sentence.... garbage in,  garbage out. As the paper goes into detail,  the biggest determinant is the rate of transmission, which is highly variable.  I.e.(my words) depending on isolation compliance vs social disobedience.

I really haven't see you pay much attention to usa psychology in all of this,  and this is the biggest factor of all. 

New York's response started too slow.  It would have been even worse if not for WA breaking cdc rules and doing their own testing way back when.  The feds probably made it much worse by cramming all the return travellers into tight arrival halls.  NY is what it is now.

And we still dont know with any useful certainty what the general population infection rate is in any US location. 

So,  using claims like 50 to 60 times (in my view this is unsubstantiated)  the 10 per cent far right are still pushing no worse than the flu. Open everything. Here in Plano tx, business colleagues and I are seeing who will closest predict when the 1 percent far right start spreading the virus on purpose to just get it done with asap.

How about everytime you find something of interest..... take the theory and apply it against New York.. then apply it against say Australia/ new Zealand where social distancing is the strongest in the western world and the data is relatively recent. 

At the simplest level 50 to 60 times is mathematically impossible in NY, too many deaths e.t.c. 

Throw me any papers you find that start using multi variate least squares analysis of population testing and you will have my interest

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3 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

And yet you will not provide a cite for the Stanford study "50 to 60 times expected population infection,  therefore huge asymptopic".  If you were honest you would have already declared there are significant issues with the design and execution of the test (self selection via facebook registration, not random,  no control group,  likely false positives in terror test method,  to name just a few).

But you and chum have been throwing that study around for about a week now with the claim of 50 to 60 as proof the rest of the scientific community is either stupid,  or in deep state conspiracy. 

Then you put up a mathematical paper regarding modeling.  Woop de doo. I'll summarize the 4 pages for you in one sentence.... garbage in,  garbage out. As the paper goes into detail,  the biggest determinant is the rate of transmission, which is highly variable.  I.e.(my words) depending on isolation compliance vs social disobedience.

I really haven't see you pay much attention to usa psychology in all of this,  and this is the biggest factor of all. 

New York's response started too slow.  It would have been even worse if not for WA breaking cdc rules and doing their own testing way back when.  The feds probably made it much worse by cramming all the return travellers into tight arrival halls.  NY is what it is now.

And we still dont know with any certainty what the general population infection rate is in any US location. 

So,  using claims like 50 to 60 times (in my view this is unsubstantiated)  the 10 per cent far right are still pushing no worse than the flu. Open everything. Here in Plano tx, business colleagues and I are seeing who will closest predict when the 1 percent far right start spreading the virus on purpose to just get it done with asap.

How about everytime you find something of interest..... take the theory and apply it against New York.. then apply it against say Australia/ new Zealand where social distancing is the strongest in the western world and the data is relatively recent. 

At the simplest level 50 to 60 times is mathematically impossible in NY, too many deaths e.t.c. 

Throw me any papers you find that stat using multi variate least squares analysis of population testing and you will have my interest

This ^^^^^

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

See, exactly as I suspected. I post an article by a mathematician, and you call it snake oil. At first I thought you were a doctor, but now you’re a mathematician too?

Face it, you have made up your mind and will reject any new information or analysis that threatens your ideas.

Which is really fucking dumb, considering its a NOVEL virus, there’s new info coming out every day.

So you understand that math paper? Proof the following statement taken from it:

"The equations for S and for R yield
dS/dR = −S/γ and hence
S(R) = S0 exp[−(R − R0)/γ] ."

Surely a trivial exercise for you.

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4 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

So you understand that math paper? Proof the following statement taken from it:

"The equations for S and for R yield
dS/dR = −S/γ and hence
S(R) = S0 exp[−(R − R0)/γ] ."

Surely a trivial exercise for you.

And 4th degree regression curves while he’s at it....

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On 4/17/2020 at 2:59 AM, SCARECROW said:

Side question, why would you have the President and Vice President in the same room right now little own standing shoulder to shoulder?

Because they

- know they don’t have COVID-19

- have the cure (that’s for the Q Anon folk :lol:)

- Trump thinks it’s strong TV

- Pence likes :wub: rubbing shoulders with Our Beautiful President

- rubbing shoulders shows ‘the rules’ don’t apply to real True Believers

- Pence is a Beard

      For conservatives

      For the appearance ‘competence’

      For a certain type of Christian

Pence is shorter and smaller, but not too much shorter

Pence has the best hair outside of Trump

Pence is prettier than anyone else in the room, excepting our Beautiful President, of course, f you think about it.....

That’s the closest, publicly, that Pence can be without his nose up Trump's ass.  A metaphor, there...

Pence wants to be VP in 2020.

Or President in 2020.

To detect if Trump starts physically shaking

To catch Trump if he starts falling-

for dramatic tension, reality tv style

Pence is the host of the Carona Dias reality show.  

 


 

 

 

       

      

 

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8 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

See, exactly as I suspected. I post an article by a mathematician, and you call it snake oil. At first I thought you were a doctor, but now you’re a mathematician too?

Face it, you have made up your mind and will reject any new information or analysis that threatens your ideas.

Which is really fucking dumb, considering its a NOVEL virus, there’s new info coming out every day.

Is there a reason the Government won't increase the number of psychiatrists per capita in your area???

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Four graphs that show it is premature for the US and UK to be relaxing suppression at the moment.

The price paid for delaying suppression is more deaths and prolonged economic hurt.

Those countries that introduced suppression strategies incl test/trace early are now reaping the benefits.

EV_fornWkAEvJ1c.jpeg

EV_fhQYWoAIzapf.jpeg

EV_fysPXQAE8xoT.jpeg

EV_ftOmXgAM1INb.jpeg

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All these graphs should be normalized to percentage of population.  Then they would be meaningful comparisons between countries.  However, the shapes of the curves are still significant.

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1 hour ago, Rain Man said:

All these graphs should be normalized to percentage of population.  Then they would be meaningful comparisons between countries.  However, the shapes of the curves are still significant.

There is no one perfect graph. Normalised not normalised per capita and log versus linear scale have to be used in tandem. Compare the above unnormalised new daily deaths graph (that uses a 7 day rolling average daily) versus the attached one here normalised per capita but which isn't particularly instructive except for time of infection. Conversely say UK having 2.5 times the US death rate per capita then normalised is essential.

So yes individual trajectories only for those not normalised. Also why I attached no comparative commentary to those graphs other than to trajectory.

However on US case peak thread I have added commentary on US population density compared to many other places PLUS a population that has a relatively low mobility factor domestically. The US in effect already socially distances outside large cities. It is why the US is also around 2 weeks behind other countries that totals only/unnormalised graphs don't highlight.

That population density and mobility factor means suppression has a more pronounced impact in the US compared to more densely populated countries, however with a low test regime, confirmed cases is a poor guide. 

However the converse applies in the US when suppression is lifted any immediate impact is less pronounced compared to more densely populated places. This then becomes very dangerous without a robust testing regime to monitor and respond to new transmissions.

IMG_20200420_140351.jpg

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5 hours ago, d'ranger said:

The shape is the only meaningful bit in those graphs. Going up is bad, exponentially bad... 

Yes and "log" scale where bad going up is exponential showing that compared to using a "linear" scale that softens trajectory.

5 hours ago, d'ranger said:

Not going down is bad if you stop doing what it is to lessen the going up.

Yes BUT "log" scale where good going down is NOT exponential compared to using a "linear" scale that highlights the dropping numbers not "softens" them like a "log" scale. 

4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

There is no one perfect graph. Normalised not normalised per capita and log versus linear scale have to be used in tandem.

So politicians are sneaky cunts.

For instance in the UK briefings they use a "linear" scale and "not normalised" per capita. That makes their trajectory "soft" and their 2 1/2 times the US death rate per capita dissappear along with their death rate per capita compared to Europe, that is only 20 mile away. It disappears into the ether, giving the appearance they are in the same boat as Europe when in fact they fell out of the boat long ago and aren't wearing a PFD.

Note they have been sprung only using hospital deaths only and now forced to notate their graph that it is missing all deaths.

The UK however are happy to show their New Daily Deaths (7 day rolling average) as that is relatively favourable as it is trending down. 

EVvUI2lWAAYhrms.thumb.jpeg.fd19cf006619551f215e174c3b25b360.jpeg

Then guess what the White House briefings use wanting to highlight their death rate per capita is sitting global mid pack? Yep per capita. HOWEVER with a US New Daily Deaths (7 day rolling average) going to shit, that "log" scale graph doesn't see the light of day.

I think POTUS thinks no-one can add up in the US and so death rates are not mentioned in his recently announced easing US suppression guidelines.

EVu4hbaXkAA6mwG.thumb.jpeg.b3140b6e72693b912020af8827e12d6b.jpeg

Any amount of political shitfuckery can be manufactured if you select a certain graph format. :lol:

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22 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

See, exactly as I suspected. I post an article by a mathematician, and you call it snake oil.

Mate your picture doing the rounds on social media is a cracker...many posts along the lines of; "how long did it it take you to steal some PPE from a hospital worker before you felt safe to march?"

D441E468-9F24-41A9-8AA7-EA592DDE3D8F.jpeg.cb7cfce60328ea5f4ecd554bcb5106cd.jpeg

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These curves and maths are going to have to be re-worked in about 3 weeks. We have a number of cities planning protests today to demand their “freedom”.

I have debt and just spent around $15,000 on parts and sails for my Fareast28R but I’m in no way ready to start working and spreading a deadly germ to pay it off. 
 

There is no way I’m going to accept the Chinese numbers, the CCP would rather not be humiliated at this point as they are set to become the next World Superleader. 

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34 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Also your UK data is crap. Where we have the numbers for in the US (except NYC) half the fatalities are in nursing homes. But the UK only reports hospital deaths...

Wrong yet again Cuntroversial.

Both UK and US report deaths identically but there is a lag for both between Hospital deaths and COD certificates being produced for deaths outside hospitals.

You really should shut the fuck up.

For instance UK lag.

EVQeRrUXkAUXSCd.thumb.jpeg.c92fce455a8f0931cf4986713701f257.jpeg

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With shut-downs looking to be eased world wide at different times in the cycle this comparison between the UK and US is instructive. 

Maybe the US tone is set citing these US luminaries sitting offstage. The Casualties of a ‘Wartime Presidency’   

Carol Hefner, Co- Chair of Trump 2016 election campaign: Mentions that her state of Oklahoma is in a lot better position to go ahead and open things back up. Part of her reasoning is the notion that her state is flat and has a lot of wind.

Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas: His argument for back to business as usual is, quote, "there are more important things than living".

Anyway a quick look at public opinion first in the UK. There is a correlation with public opinion in the US as both Government's have had nearly an identical virus response strategy.

UK PUBLIC OPINION

UK Covid opinion poll graphs from the Observer.

Looking at key aspects like "speed of response" 63/30 and "testing" 57/15 the UK Government have been given a huge and deserved fail. 

IMG_20200427_143839.jpg.eaf599d7bdeba8076cd47066efb6599d.jpgIMG_20200427_143921.jpg.7542c0cc30342470c80e9fd59bf1d2c4.jpg

However overall the public approve overall of the Governments handling 51/30?? That doesn't compute. That said since 7 April Approve and Disapprove have been on a collision course where opinion will be evenly split within a week.

IMG_20200427_143804.jpg.a8cfa0a31f834717a8b0186780958b5e.jpg

Look closer both the detailed and overall aspects experienced an opinion reversal to Negative/Don't Approve at exactly the same time, 7 April. Interstingly the 7th of April is the day PM Johnson went into ICU.

So the explanation is people believe the UK Govt are failing badly, but don’t want them to fail because of the terrible consequences that attach to that. 

As for lock-downs easing the UK public are cautious with 67% strongly supportive. This UGov poll was taken a week ago.

EVu4oRCXkAIHirg.thumb.jpeg.bfc20d29a8533e997adcbf8378f37b66.jpeg

US PUBLIC OPINION

There maybe something more recent polling than this dated 16 April, however the most authoritive I could find. Pew Research Centre - U.S. Politics & Policy - Covid

Trump Administration reacted slowly with a very deserved 65/34 fail. This view is also shown along demographic and party lines noting the split response in the Conservative vote.

IMG_20200427_194042.jpg.b72795df46b941a162324d09766d3e11.jpg

As for approval of the Trump Administrations "overall" handling of Covid, it is seen by the majority as only doing a fair or poor job. The non-economic score is in the range of a 54 - 57% failure.

IMG_20200427_195420.jpg.a1c09b5135eb38b090abfd75bdf74977.jpg

As for lock-downs easing the US public are very cautious with 66% concerned versus 32% they are not being lifted quick enough by State Governments for public activity.

IMG_20200427_194219.jpg.cdd81bf2e09001b56fa285705244bf20.jpg

This was double checked with this polling data showing even higher figure of 84% strongly supportive of lock-downs continuing even if the economy gets worse versus 16% stopping the decline even if more people get infected/die. Those expectations don't change for the next month or to the second week of May.

April 2020- Yale University Study - Americal Public Responses Convid-19

IMG_20200427_193642.jpg.11adbf4228edb4e0de7c5c3d441be25f.jpg

IMG_20200427_193802.jpg.b9652f78faea54d4591b46bd9c6114db.jpg

UK & US COMPARISON IN PUBLIC & GOVT OPINION

- Speed of Response/Testing;  Nearly identical seen as a failure. UK (63/30) and US (65/34).

- Approval Overall: The Trump Administration is only seen as doing fair or poor job. Yet per capita the US has experienced less than half the fatalities of the UK? The UK Government (51/30) on the other hand enjoys support even with over twice the fatalities per capita. This support in the UK is trending down where it would be expected to be split 50/50 and so close to the US but lagging.

In the US it would appear the difference is being generated along party lines. There does not appear to be as in the UK the opinion - "Yes the UK Govt are failing badly, but we don’t want them to fail." The US appears to be "Yes the Trump Administration is failing badly, and we either want them to fail or are ambivalent.

- Public Opinion on Lock-Downs Lifting: Both countries are similiar for the same timeframe up until  the second week of May. In the UK less than 20% support lifting where half of those are "somewhat supportive" of it continuing as is. The US the range is slightly higher between 16 - 32% wanting all restrictions lifted and those opposed rank that higher than the economy.

- Govt Opinion on Lock-Downs Lifting: This shows an enormous disparity. The UK have stated it will not review the current situation until next month. It has not yet published guidelines yet for lifting. It is understood that modelling attached to same will be completed this week to accommodate the latest data available.

The Jury then is still out on the UK's shut-down lifting response.

The US on the other hand released in April under a familiar and catchy slogan "Opening Up America Again" Those guidelines exclude any reference to fatality numbers. It has been reported the most publicly known doctors leading the federal COVID-19 response, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, will be sidelined in the coming weeks. 

CONCLUSION

The UK Government are intending to follow the wishes of the majority of their constituents, despite failing them with at best is described as a shambolic response.

The US Government don't intend to follow the majority wishes (66 - 84%) of their constituents, despite already failing them to date with a shambolic response equal to the UK's.

It appears the Trump administration will now:

 - Prioritise an economy-first not a lives-first response and is prepared to abandon public health expertise. 

- Decrease its reliance on health statistics in briefings, though accurate public information has proven to be an effective tool in fighting the spread of the virus worldwide. 

- Highlight “success stories” of businesses reopening.

- Emphasise the performance of governors in States ending their shutdowns.

Ultimately voters will or should mark the virus response cards down the line of these two respective Government's and in the US case also their State administrations.

As Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas said; "there are more important things than living," not being around to vote is obviously one.

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On 4/20/2020 at 2:19 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Excellent...my anger management program stipulates I listen to a stream of bullshit at least once a day.

That's fucking funny.

 

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

With shut-downs looking to be eased world wide at different times in the cycle this comparison between the UK and US is instructive. 

Maybe the US tone is set citing these US luminaries sitting offstage. The Casualties of a ‘Wartime Presidency’   

Carol Hefner, Co- Chair of Trump 2016 election campaign: Mentions that her state of Oklahoma is in a lot better position to go ahead and open things back up. Part of her reasoning is the notion that her state is flat and has a lot of wind.

Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas: His argument for back to business as usual is, quote, "there are more important things than living".

 

Jack, these were not directly quoted from the article but are my actual paraphrases of the article from my post in the Cloroxtini thread(Trump--injecting yourself...), as such, should be cited. I trust this was an honest mistake and feel free to use them anyway.

Keep fighting the good fight brother.

 

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

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2 hours ago, fufkin said:

Jack, these were not directly quoted from the article but are my actual paraphrases of the article from my post

Sorry Fuf lazy copy ..I usually am a big citer even locators...it slipped 

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sorry Fuf lazy copy ..I usually am a big citer even locators...it slipped 

No worries Jack, gotta make sure SA maintains its peer reviewed status!

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This copied from the Swedish thread but it probably has more relevance here.

Here’s a different way of comparing countries that is particularly insightful in showing how they are doing near or after their ‘peak’.

Core idea is to plot new cases v totals to date, to focus on rate of transmission. This helps to bring out deviations from exponential growth. Both graphs are on a per capita basis.

Note: Remember two important caveats. When viewing cases this depends on testing rates where some are case response no tracing like the US and UK and some with higher rates, with or without tracing such as Germany and Korea for example.

The second obviously is population density so with the US and Europe having around a 8:1 differential overlaid by demographics and cultural differences.

Observations.

- The lines are remarkably close prior to the effects of suppression strategies kicking in beyond test/trace (for some) that started earlier.

- Where Sweden sits having a hybrid of natural containment/suppression not just "do nothing" as many believe.

- Shows a selection of European countries plus a single representation for the balance of Europe. 

- Finally where the US and Europe as a "big picture" sit including showing the US's epicentre NY separately.

To understand the graphs and in particular the caveats incl animations to bring in the time dimension this Video will help.

How to Tell if We're Beating Covid-19

I will let you make your own conclusions.

Graphs courtesy of COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

EW4c7f-WAAA6-mJ.jpeg.19ca86b89f376909052cb1d014b09341.jpegEW4c7gEWkAA1KgX.thumb.jpeg.8e5297f7635c16cb757f39c9f0055573.jpeg

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what I would like to see is data on recoveries.  If recoveries (defined as someone who tested + for COVID and is still alive after 30 days) are outpacing new cases, then isn't that a good thing and perhaps the indicator we should be looking at.  Another way to look at recoveries is Net Cases, defined as current diagnosed cases less recoveries.  I have been charting these variables in Michigan and things appear to be stabilizing.

Hroth

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24 minutes ago, hrothgar said:

what I would like to see is data on recoveries

Good for heath care capacity ...not much good alone looking when it is safe to ease suppression.

Some countries publish that daily both for all admissions and acute care seperately..the latter the capacity roadblock.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Good for heath care capacity ...not much good alone looking when it is safe to ease suppression.

Some countries publish that daily both for all admissions and acute care seperately..the latter the capacity roadblock.

Right.  I think we need to be looking at Net cases which reflects recoveries and new reported cases.  Both are typically reported as cumulative data.  Michigan reports recoveries weekly on Saturday. Interested to see what the number looks like this week.

Another thing we should be looking at is actual healthcare capacity.  I know this has been discussed elsewhere.  Many people who test positive are not hospitalized because their symptoms are mild.  I think there is a perception by many that every single person who tests positive is in the hospital on a ventilator which we know isn't true.

Hroth

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It’s not going to be “safe” to 

5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

not much good alone looking when it is safe to ease suppression.

It is not going to be “safe” until 2022 or later, unless a vaccine is found, which may be never.
 

All societies will eventually reopen and accept some levels of risk and substantial losses, it’s just a matter of whether they decide to do it, or are forced to do it when they run out of food. Our food supply systems are already breaking down.

You think those fat suburban moms are going to be ok without meat?

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5 minutes ago, hrothgar said:

I think there is a perception by many that every single person who tests positive is in the hospital on a ventilator which we know isn't true.

Admissions to active cases is around 20%

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4 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

It is not going to be “safe” until 2022 or later, unless a vaccine is found, which may be never.

Safe not alone. Safe and a bunch of other stuff including economic impact. 

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