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What's Your Prediction When Freedom Returns - Released from Home Confinement


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Everyone is an expert on Covid today. Everyone has read, seen, heard and there probably hasn't been a subject in the history of man/woman where so much has been learned about it in such a short time.

But no one is an expert on telling us when normalcy begins again. Do you want to call this a pool - guess the date we're all released?

Here's my prediction: February 2021 everyone is freed.

Why?

The current purpose of stay at home is to not overload the hospitals beyond their capacity. That is all. There is nothing more to it than this. Release everyone today, and Covid spreads like wildfire.

The stay at home is one month at a time as to not scare the population. Could you imagine the backlash, even more damage to the economy, if the politicians said, "Stay home until February 2021?"

The only way I see people being freed is when a immunization is invented, mass produced, and the population injected.  From what we have seen, predictors are saying this will happen in 9 to 12 months.  I have not seen any other scenario that would allow a general population release.

What say you?

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My fear that way too many who seek power for power's sake have had way too much of it just handed to them!  I only ask for a single example in history where anyone has willingly and graciously relinquished any such power.  I fear that we are now in a completely different world and none of us knows what is coming.

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There is  no release.  ID2020 is coming, and if you value the freedom to choose who sticks you, and with what, it's time to speak up!

Many people will never be free again.

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Testing and indifference.

People want to run out now, and start up everything. But it won't be EVERYTHING because many many people have a different assessment of risk. So there will be big economic hit no matter what, and the "Re-Start The Economy NOW!!" crowd doesn't seem to understand that.

Then there will be new outbreaks. How will people respond to that? It will knock the hell out of some peoples' indifference, and knock hell out of their enthusiasm to restart NOW!! but others will keep pushing.

Interesting response to tracking.... testing is great but how do you find out who is exposed? Corporations are tracking all the data on you that they can get, which is pretty much all of it. Which would be worse, having the government track you or having them contract it out?

But testing without the ability to order people into quarantine is useless. Unless perhaps you can make them wear a big sign around their neck, so everybody will know to keep the fuck away from them and not let them in the stores.

- DSK

 

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8 minutes ago, g7tunison said:

There is  no release.  ID2020 is coming, and if you value the freedom to choose who sticks you, and with what, it's time to speak up!

Many people will never be free again.

Sit around complain about how it's not 1950 any more. That will help.

Maybe if you get some like-minded people to agree and try to force everyone back to 1950, or to what you think 1950 was like, that would be great!

Or not

- DSK

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6 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Sit around complain about how it's not 1950 any more. That will help.

Maybe if you get some like-minded people to agree and try to force everyone back to 1950, or to what you think 1950 was like, that would be great!

Or not

- DSK

See?!  Express a different opinion or thought, and the po-po is right up on it! 

SHAZAM!

Who gets to hold me down for my shot; the first person with the highest social score that asks?

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4 minutes ago, g7tunison said:

See?!  Express a different opinion or thought, and the po-po is right up on it! 

SHAZAM!

Who gets to hold me down for my shot; the first person with the highest social score that asks?

The more important question is, do you realize that you have to share this planet with others? Whether you want to or not?

- DSK

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That's exactly my point, good sir.  Does sharing mean imposing ones will upon another, without said other's consent?  Or, will others be allowed to form a society that values individuals?  Are we talking survival of the most ruthless?  Expecting others to stay home because I'm scared of getting sick or dying is not something I will ever choose. Humans evolved by selection, and immune system strength is a large criterion for that, n'est pas?

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They are going to put "the vulnerable" into home prisons and let "the herd" aka working stiffs go out, make money for their employers, get sick, sicken their families and (some) die. This will improve the retirement portfolios of "the vulnerable" in the short term, hopefully long enough for me to annuitize before the dead cat bounce ends.

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2 hours ago, Glenn McCarthy said:

predictors are saying this will happen in 9 to 12 months. 

...without a single bit of evidence or data that makes the number any more likely than 9 to 12 years.

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15 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

...without a single bit of evidence or data that makes the number any more likely than 9 to 12 years.

The common amount of time it takes to create a flu vaccine.  And I'm betting every lab in this field is working overtime to come up with one.  First one to the market will make jillions off it.

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4 minutes ago, Glenn McCarthy said:

The common amount of time it takes to create a flu vaccine.  

First one to market makes many billions.

What's the common amount of time it takes to create a coronavirus vaccine?

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The Bill Gates foundation is funding 7 different labs to find a vaccine, he ain't in it for the money (couldn't spend what he has).  I am fine with anyone who wants to ignore common sense and do/go wherever as long as they always wear a MAGA hat.  And stay the fuck away from me.

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51 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

The Bill Gates foundation is funding 7 different labs to find a vaccine, he ain't in it for the money (couldn't spend what he has).  I am fine with anyone who wants to ignore common sense and do/go wherever as long as they always wear a MAGA hat.  And stay the fuck away from me.

Was in our local COSTCO on Tuesday and while in line some guy was giving this old guy some shit for not wearing a mask.

The gentleman responded in the lines of...  "I don't have time for this.  I was in the army for 30 years and have been to every world disaster and disease hot spot let alone another 10 years with the Los Angels County Department of Public Health.  I have been exposed to just about every disease known and you should know that this virus started to run through California a while before you even you or anyone else knew about it.  Please mind your own business..."

Now, the gentleman was wearing a baseball cap as you described above... care to tell me what it said?

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Was in our local COSTCO on Tuesday and while in line some guy was giving this old guy some shit for not wearing a mask.

The gentleman responded in the lines of...  "I don't have time for this.  I was in the army for 30 years and have been to every world disaster and disease hot spot let alone another 10 years with the Los Angels County Department of Public Health.  I have been exposed to just about every disease known and you should know that this virus started to run through California a while before you even you or anyone else knew about it.  Please mind your own business..."

Now, the gentleman was wearing a baseball cap as you described above... care to tell me what it said?

 

 

 

Hmmm...  My BS meter would have been tweaking into the higher ranges with a story like that...  too polished.

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It will end sooner than you think. How much longer will women go without hair cuts, nail salons and waxing. Women as usual will be the driving force.

 

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Also stay at home was to flatten curve so hospitals would not be overran with patients. That has worked in most areas except for NYC. Quarantine wasn't done to give time to find a cure or vaccine. People will still die under curve

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I had the bad MMR vaccine from the 60's that didn't cover the German Measles (i think it was those measles too young to remember) i had in the 1970's. 

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3 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Testing and indifference.

People want to run out now, and start up everything. But it won't be EVERYTHING because many many people have a different assessment of risk. So there will be big economic hit no matter what, and the "Re-Start The Economy NOW!!" crowd doesn't seem to understand that.

Then there will be new outbreaks. How will people respond to that? It will knock the hell out of some peoples' indifference, and knock hell out of their enthusiasm to restart NOW!! but others will keep pushing.

Interesting response to tracking.... testing is great but how do you find out who is exposed? Corporations are tracking all the data on you that they can get, which is pretty much all of it. Which would be worse, having the government track you or having them contract it out?

But testing without the ability to order people into quarantine is useless. Unless perhaps you can make them wear a big sign around their neck, so everybody will know to keep the fuck away from them and not let them in the stores.

- DSK

 

We really only have two choices here.  Keep everyone quarantined at home until there is a vaccine and live through another Great Depression or slowly ease the confinements to the point where the people getting sick don't overwhelm the med system all at once.  The fact of the matter is that the "flattening the curve" is not about PREVENTING you from getting infected.  Its about not having everyone infected all at once.  Once you accept that you're likely going to get sick at some point unless a vaccine is ready to go in a couple of months (highly unlikely) - then you're going to get infected.  

IMHO, we need to accept that and attempt to mitigate the impacts of that as best we can.  I think that we need to focus our limited resources and $$ on protecting those most vulnerable to serious illness or death rather than trying to quarantine 330 million people.  

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1 minute ago, Raz'r said:

we never were

Speak for yourself!

I judge everyone else's normality based on myself as a benchmark.

 

Oh wait...   Erm...

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30 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Was in our local COSTCO on Tuesday and while in line some guy was giving this old guy some shit for not wearing a mask.

The gentleman responded in the lines of...  "I don't have time for this.  I was in the army for 30 years and have been to every world disaster and disease hot spot let alone another 10 years with the Los Angels County Department of Public Health.  I have been exposed to just about every disease known and you should know that this virus started to run through California a while before you even you or anyone else knew about it.  Please mind your own business..."

Now, the gentleman was wearing a baseball cap as you described above... care to tell me what it said?

 

 

 

ACLU? Had a similar experience a few weeks ago at a grocery but no hat, old guy sitting as he couldn't walk very far (small store btw) and I finally walked away after he stated he wasn't afraid of any virus. I hope he doesn't get it as if so it's lights out. The few times I have had to go out these past weeks everyone seems very conscious of distance - not sure how long this will last as many run out of money and patience. Today's briefing should be very interesting.

 

2 minutes ago, Desert Racer said:

We really only have two choices here.  Keep everyone quarantined at home until there is a vaccine and live through another Great Depression or slowly ease the confinements to the point where the people getting sick don't overwhelm the med system all at once.  The fact of the matter is that the "flattening the curve" is not about PREVENTING you from getting infected.  Its about not having everyone infected all at once.  Once you accept that you're likely going to get sick at some point unless a vaccine is ready to go in a couple of months (highly unlikely) - then you're going to get infected.  

IMHO, we need to accept that and attempt to mitigate the impacts of that as best we can.  I think that we need to focus our limited resources and $$ on protecting those most vulnerable to serious illness or death rather than trying to quarantine 330 million people.  

No, the 3rd choice is testing and tracing - you know like some countries who are in much better shape are. The US has currently tested about 1% (if we are going to believe the government now) and anyone who is fluent in statistics and aql knows that if you have a fail at 1% testing has to be increased significantly.  Trump don't do maths and statistics and probably thinks aql is another miracle drug to tout.

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4 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

No, the 3rd choice is testing and tracing - you know like some countries who are in much better shape are. The US has currently tested about 1% (if we are going to believe the government now) and anyone who is fluent in statistics and aql knows that if you have a fail at 1% testing has to be increased significantly.  Trump don't do maths and statistics and probably thinks aql is another miracle drug to tout.

I apologize I wasn't more detailed.  My option # 2 implied increased testing and tracing.  That's a given.  But even then, people are going to get infected and die once we get back to work, even with social distancing and masks.  As I said, we need to focus our resources on protecting those most vulnerable and at risk rather than lock everyone down.

The alternative is the Greater Great Depression.  

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30 minutes ago, Windward said:

Hmmm...  My BS meter would have been tweaking into the higher ranges with a story like that...  too polished.

Agree.. but the part of the virus running through CA a while before it was known.  I am not speculating on this considering LAX and SFO airports being large ports of entry for flights out of China.

 

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10 minutes ago, Desert Racer said:

We really only have two choices here.  Keep everyone quarantined at home until there is a vaccine and live through another Great Depression or slowly ease the confinements to the point where the people getting sick don't overwhelm the med system all at once.  The fact of the matter is that the "flattening the curve" is not about PREVENTING you from getting infected.  Its about not having everyone infected all at once.  Once you accept that you're likely going to get sick at some point unless a vaccine is ready to go in a couple of months (highly unlikely) - then you're going to get infected.  

IMHO, we need to accept that and attempt to mitigate the impacts of that as best we can.  I think that we need to focus our limited resources and $$ on protecting those most vulnerable to serious illness or death rather than trying to quarantine 330 million people.  

Well, the first choice was never under consideration - and the 2nd choice is what we've been doing. Gov Newsom (of CALI!) is already starting to whisper the quarantine is coming to an end.

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Just now, Raz'r said:

Well, the first choice was never under consideration - and the 2nd choice is what we've been doing. Gov Newsom (of CALI!) is already starting to whisper the quarantine is coming to an end.

Did he have to shut down the whole state?  No...

One thing he should do is put a wall around the homeless shit holes he and his ilk are responsible for and quarantine them.

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In center city philly people are following guidelines for most part. However last week I detoured through a less lawful area and people were all over. There were even bars and stores open. My wife and I then realized why some hospitals were busier in the city

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22 minutes ago, Desert Racer said:

We really only have two choices here.  Keep everyone quarantined at home until there is a vaccine and live through another Great Depression or slowly ease the confinements to the point where the people getting sick don't overwhelm the med system all at once.  The fact of the matter is that the "flattening the curve" is not about PREVENTING you from getting infected.  Its about not having everyone infected all at once.  Once you accept that you're likely going to get sick at some point unless a vaccine is ready to go in a couple of months (highly unlikely) - then you're going to get infected.  

IMHO, we need to accept that and attempt to mitigate the impacts of that as best we can.  I think that we need to focus our limited resources and $$ on protecting those most vulnerable to serious illness or death rather than trying to quarantine 330 million people.  

Zackly (not taking credit, I posted this several times over the past 3 weeks)

My idea is to get a tiny exposure and let my immune system get a good look at it and start pumping up. But precise dosage is difficult under field conditions.

- DSK

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3 hours ago, g7tunison said:

That's exactly my point, good sir.  Does sharing mean imposing ones will upon another, without said other's consent?  Or, will others be allowed to form a society that values individuals?  Are we talking survival of the most ruthless?  Expecting others to stay home because I'm scared of getting sick or dying is not something I will ever choose. Humans evolved by selection, and immune system strength is a large criterion for that, n'est pas?

We could easily build a fence around IL, fill it with freedom-loving, free-thinkers like you and you all can have at it.  We'll call it Disneyland III.

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8 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Did he have to shut down the whole state?  No...

One thing he should do is put a wall around the homeless shit holes he and his ilk are responsible for and quarantine them.

Even better, I saw they rented 7000 apartments and homes to shelter them. Probably one of them will be in that vacant house down the street from you.

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1 minute ago, bplipschitz said:

We could easily build a fence around IL, fill it with freedom-loving, free-thinkers like you and you all can have at it.  We'll call it Disneyland III.

I think Jake the Snake starred in that film (well, NYC)

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5 minutes ago, Raz'r said:
7 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

We could easily build a fence around IL, fill it with freedom-loving, free-thinkers like you and you all can have at it.  We'll call it Disneyland III.

I think Jake the Snake starred in that film (well, NYC) 

Naw, that was filmed across the river in STL.

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14 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Zackly (not taking credit, I posted this several times over the past 3 weeks)

My idea is to get a tiny exposure and let my immune system get a good look at it and start pumping up. But precise dosage is difficult under field conditions.

- DSK

Yep, been toying with that idea myself.  I'm in the camp of "just get it over with".  However, I'm really enjoying my CV vacay right now - so not in a rush to get back to work.  It's honestly the first time in 35 years I've ever had much more than a couple of weeks off work.  I'm fitter now than I have been since I was in my early 20s.  

The main issue is that no one knows what "immunity" looks like.  I don't think there will ever be such as thing as a "one and done" silver bullet.  As in I don't think you will get long term immunity like you would from recovering from Ebola or such.  I believe this will be a seasonal flu and vaccines will change every year as new CV strains emerge.  

And I absolutely don't think there will be a magic vaccine that immunizes the population.  Like current flu vaccines - I think at best we will mitigate it somewhat and that hopefully if you have the vaccine and get infected, it just lessons the effect from say.... being dead to just feeling really shitty.  But even current flu vaccines don't stop people from dying, there are just less people dead. 

This is the new normal and I simply don't think we need to turn our nation into a 3rd world shithole with the economy of the DRC to get there.  

Edit to add....  I'm fortunate that I can afford to take some time off work.  Too many others don't have that luxury and I fear the "Cure" is going to be far worse than the disease for millions of Americans.  There will be far too many that never recover.  As someone recently posted, we are burning down the house to fix a mouse problem.  

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11 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Even better, I saw they rented 7000 apartments and homes to shelter them. Probably one of them will be in that vacant house down the street from you.

There are no vacant houses in my neighborhood, hell, houses don't even stay on the market for more than 30 days.

Yeah, the did rent those, some to the tune of $250.00 per night for a Motel 6.   

 

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My 2 cents:

1. Large group events like concerts and sporting events stay closed to the public ‘til 2Q2021.  
 

2. Restaurants reopen this summer with max density requirements. 
 

3. Air lines limp through at sig reduced capacity for another year.  
 

4. Schools resume fall 2020.  
 

5. Social distancing continues with masks etc. through 2020.  
 

6. We as a country start to accept death as a natural progression of life and stop insisting on generally futile interventions. That makes a herd strategy more plausible. Basically treat folks at home.  Use meds to diminish dyspnea without ventilators and accept many will die at home.  

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Anyone care to take a stab at what this chart is modelling?

F6.large.thumb.jpg.2a737ed2965af2bb2a9dd8b7a372cc48.jpg

 

Until a rapid test, with a 30mins result max or sooner of peeing, blood prick and/or saliva…. (take yer pick) is cheaply and hopefully freely available with an +85% accuracy bias.
That and they have access to the service as soon as they, a spouse, a child, a relative or a co-worker feel or suspect symptoms and/or someone they are in contact
with also tested positive.

Then on this/these positive result you are handed a pack of proven prophylactic meds (yes the French are seeing success with some for sure) … you then take these immediately high-dose 1st 24hrs then maintenance dose for the next 2-5 days… so this MOFO bug is quashed pre it breaking down your immune system and destroying your red blood cell haemoglobin.

What’s critical with SARS-Cov-2 is hitting it fast pre max viral replication process, so very early on in the infection stage.

Whoever came up with the strategy of staying at home, and toughing it out sans any intervention  for 14 days with no test no clue as to infection spread?

Jeeeez!!!

So until we have that, and all peeps in public or public facing roles wear face masks too… our futures out till 2022 will be:

Break-out > Lockdown > Release > Break-out > Lockdown > Release >

Carry on

 

 

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What the USA has been living through for the past 3+ years is not normalcy. It's not normal to have a psychotic, petulant, tantrum prone toddler as the POTUS.

After he is gone, and the Covid19 virus is under control, we can try to reassemble  what's left of our "normal" lives.

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38 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

What the USA has been living through for the past 3+ years is not normalcy. It's not normal to have a psychotic, petulant, tantrum prone toddler as the POTUS.

After he is gone, and the Covid19 virus is under control, we can try to reassemble  what's left of our "normal" lives.

Take your shit to PA.

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3 hours ago, nacradriver said:

There are no vacant houses in my neighborhood, hell, houses don't even stay on the market for more than 30 days.

Yeah, the did rent those, some to the tune of $250.00 per night for a Motel 6.   

 

You might want to look closer. Yes, those houses were selling. But they were selling to out-of-towners with briefcases full of cash. Some of those are going to have to liquidate.

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53 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

You might want to look closer. Yes, those houses were selling. But they were selling to out-of-towners with briefcases full of cash. Some of those are going to have to liquidate.

Correction - they are selling.  And who gives a shit who is buying... If they are paying cash for the asking if not more than all the better.  If they can drop down $750K plus for a cave... I don't think they're going to have to worry about going liquid anytime soon.

 

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11 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Correction - they are selling.  And who gives a shit who is buying... If they are paying cash for the asking if not more than all the better.  If they can drop down $750K plus for a cave... I don't think they're going to have to worry about going liquid anytime soon.

 

That's what they said in 2007.  With home mortgage rates at historic lows, it's not all suitcases full of cash.  There is lots of borrowing going on.  Easy money begets lots of speculation.

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22 minutes ago, Snaggletooth said:

A holle lotta begetteng gonig on!                                           :)

But that’s not enough to buy a house or pay the rent sadly.  

It will make a tractor payment for Tom’s Kubota though.   So that’s nice. 

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3 minutes ago, Windward said:
29 minutes ago, Snaggletooth said:

A holle lotta begetteng gonig on!                                           :)

But that’s not enough to buy a house or pay the rent sadly.  

It will make a tractor payment for Tom’s Kubota though.   So that’s nice. 

Adgreede, Tom needes our helpe.  Ille do my parte!   Go the Kubota!                           :)                                 

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1 hour ago, Desert Racer said:

That's what they said in 2007.  With home mortgage rates at historic lows, it's not all suitcases full of cash.  There is lots of borrowing going on.  Easy money begets lots of speculation.

Mabey in other places like Las Vegas, but not in my hood.

The mortgage rates in 2007 for A-paper was about 6% to 6.5%.  Maybe that was low from when I got my first mortgage at 12% with 1.5 points in 1980, but nothing compared to today's rates.  The money may be cheap for those with good credit,  but minimum wage workers are not getting 99% LTV loans to purchase McMansions as they did back then either.

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4 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Mabey in other places like Las Vegas, but not in my hood.

The mortgage rates in 2007 for A-paper was about 6% to 6.5%.  Maybe that was low from when I got my first mortgage at 12% with 1.5 points in 1980, but nothing compared to today's rates.  The money may be cheap for those with good credit,  but minimum wage workers are not getting 99% LTV loans to purchase McMansions as they did back then either.

Youre lingo is goode....................                  :)

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10 hours ago, burndoc said:

It will end sooner than you think. How much longer will women go without hair cuts, nail salons and waxing. Women as usual will be the driving force.

 

Hell hath no fury than a woman who can’t get her twat waxed. I think Bob Dylan said that. 

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14 hours ago, craigjoh said:

My fear that way too many who seek power for power's sake have had way too much of it just handed to them!  I only ask for a single example in history where anyone has willingly and graciously relinquished any such power.  I fear that we are now in a completely different world and none of us knows what is coming.

Ditto.

Here in Washington state, the governor has "claimed" all sorts of power he doesn't actually have.  Deciding which businesses can stay open and which must close.  Residential construction is non-essential, but government construction proceeds.  Etc.  Even some things that have absolutely nothing to do with COVID - like (through an executive order) suspending state laws about public hearings, public records requests and government reporting requirements.

I *highly* doubt he's going to relinquish any of (what he perceives to be) his new "powers" without a fight.  He's enjoying this way too much.

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16 hours ago, Desert Racer said:

Take your shit to PA.

If this thread was in PA, I would have responded in PA. ASSHOLE.

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12 hours ago, Al Paca said:

Hell hath no fury than a woman who can’t get her twat waxed. I think Bob Dylan said that. 

Many only wax for men's delectation. They are now sick of the men after being cooped up with stubbly housemates leaving the lid up. The itchy phase has passed, it's soft and silky now. 

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.
May 1st: International Worker's Day.  Fuck 'em, I'm going back to work.

The Shutdown was to flatten the curve to prevent a spike from overloading the medical system.  It's done that.  It can't prevent the Wuh Flu. Time to get back to work.  

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Pratt & Whitney Aircraft still operating on reduced staffing. Anyone who can work from home, has done so.  Today it was ruled that all people must wear masks the entire time they are here, and soon they will start to take everyone's temp before allowing onsite.

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1 minute ago, billy backstay said:

Pratt & Whitney Aircraft still operating on reduced staffing. Anyone who can work from home, has done so.  Today it was ruled that all people must wear masks the entire time they are here, and soon they will start to take everyone's temp before allowing onsite.

What dose thisse haft to do withe velcrowe?

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5 hours ago, Snaggletooth said:

What dose thisse haft to do withe velcrowe?

The guy who invented Velcro patented a toy model airplane at age 12. P&W makes airplane engines.... Hence, your connection. (As far as things go on S/A, that's close enough.)

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19 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

The guy who invented Velcro patented a toy model airplane at age 12. P&W makes airplane engines.... Hence, your connection. (As far as things go on S/A, that's close enough.)

Is that 6 degrees of Snags?

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