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The Swedish Experiment


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2 hours ago, Wess said:

I’ll take Tegnell over a bird’s BS any day!

"I'll take" ...ha ha...like I can't wait to hear what Tegnell and Giesecke are finally forced to publically admit about their mortality model at the Government's Inquiry...I bet you fucking aren't ready to "take" that are you bullshitter. :lol:

Also who can't wait for Tegnell's lips to become unsealed is the 22 high-profile scientists who wrote to the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter in late April saying that the Swedish public-health authorities had FAILED,  Are they bullshitting too bullshitter?

Keep bullshitting bullshitter.

10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

But more to the point why doesn't Anders Tegnell RELEASE HIS modelling work done in February/early March and reveal HIS modelled mortality figures for Sweden against ACTUAL mortality?

Fucking funny about that isn't it Dr Tegnell

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First of all:  how is your trip to Spain going? Now. Any single person who doesn’t die from this is excellent news. And anyone who doesn’t contract the virus is also good news. For starters

Everyone in this thread is probably in a nursing home. They sound like Joe Biden trying to form a cognitive sentence.    "Uh, but, cases only, g.g.g.g.go down with lock-down." 'If you don't w

Im hazarding a guess that you have never had to walk into the waiting room and tell a husband, son daughter father that their wife mother daughter has passed. Because today in the USA 512 doctors or n

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1 hour ago, Wess said:

So many angry liars. Angry birds app?

Nope. In fact I was just going to write a commendation about Tegnell over something very interesting he has said and missed by all incl the Kool Aid drinkers like you. It certainly outweighs his recent attempts of misguided justification, albeit understandable.

But Wess after reading yet another droll and pathetic missive of yours, there is joy in not sharing it with you. The trouble when burdened with a one-eyed agenda is you really can miss the trees for the birds.

Then again you have missed my thrust since the beginning so not unexpected. But you never know you're not dumb and you might just cotton on with your fan base given holidays and you become more reflective? 

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On 9/11/2020 at 4:46 AM, BlatantEcho said:

How has 'locking down' any country, produced any demonstrable benefit to total mortality?
 

'Lockdown' was supposed to be about flattening the curve, so hospitals didn't get overrun.
(none got overrun really, anyway, even with the insane mass hysteria we had)
 

Lockdown doesn't prevent anyone from dying, it is utterly not related to that.  
It just delays it, as a secondary aspect, of making sure countries didn't get overwhelmed.

As Sweden and other places showed though - you don't need to lockdown to make sure hospitals didn't get overrun. 

Lockdown isn't like a magical fake boarder around a country that says  'covid, you can't come in'
(which is what the Kiwis thought, for some reason)

It was supposed to buy time to prepare, even though it is awful, brutal, dictatorial and doesn't work - that was the only rationale.
And, it didn't work at all, ensuring more misery for everyone.
 

Instead, people like you think it is some magic key to prevent deaths?  
How, exactly, would it do that?  Show me scientific evidence the correlates lockdown with reducing total mortality.  Seriously.

The mortality rate of CV 19 severe symptoms has declined across all age groups in the USA between March /April and now. This is because our protocols and the and treatment have improved. More importantly, the legacy of the lock down is a mask wearing society.  WEE simply didnt have the masks at first.

We were hit early with CV19 in the tri-states. The stay home rules, use of masks and social distancing considerably slowed the disease which bought us time to figure out the disease a bit.

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Eye Blatant has been given a holiday from SA for bullshitting. 

about COVID 19

else we'd probably all be on Hols .....

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4 hours ago, Wess said:

Still wrong.

But Wes you can't say why the Swedes don't believe it? Wes why is that so?

But Wes you can't say why Sweden has now changed its response? Wes why is that so?

But Wes you can't say why the Swedes are meeting today and tomorrow to discuss implementing restrictions for the region of Stockholm? Wes why is that so?

Wes that's a lot of 'Wes cant's' snd unanswered 'why's' you keep accumulating. Wes your bullshitters line of defence unfortunately has a 'use by date.'

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3 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

The mortality rate of CV 19 severe symptoms has declined across all age groups in the USA between March /April and now. This is because our protocols and the and treatment have improved. More importantly, the legacy of the lock down is a mask wearing society.  WEE simply didnt have the masks at first.

We were hit early with CV19 in the tri-states. The stay home rules, use of masks and social distancing considerably slowed the disease which bought us time to figure out the disease a bit.

Georgia implemented a  “soft lockdown “ 

their corona  fatality rate seems about average 

I just read that Georgia’s 2020 tax receipts are 7 percent higher than 2019 tax receipts 

it appears that decent results can be achieved without destroying your economy 

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16 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

it appears that decent results can be achieved without destroying your economy 

That is the secret that unfortunately it seems too many in authority don't understand the 'how' or won't listen to the 'how' even after a failed first run. Sweden appears to have worked it out albeit costly in the first run to both economy and mortality.

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37 minutes ago, Imogi said:

What is the source of the pic?

Radio Sweden couple of weeks ago. It was in the north with less cases so interesting.

31 minutes ago, Imogi said:

With regard to the testing your graph doesnt show the whole picture.  Before the start date you selected they were much higher than the dip.  

I didn't select start date. Pre then they had different test reporting regieme. Testing was following dropping cases then they changed and dramatically is the picture there.

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44 minutes ago, Imogi said:

Interesting that the UK is talking about lockdown. 

They are dickheads.

The England/Wales (80% UK population) contact/trace/test and response regieme is a clusterfuck. Their testing numbers are fiction.

Who else would build and test a contact/trace/test App after being told it wouldn't work then build a second App. That App doesn't contact/trace, you can only use it for booking a test.

They haven't told anyone but it actually contact/traces but that is not activated as  they haven't the test capacity to handle the extra numbers. To make it worse Scotland and Nth Ireland have working Apps and the latter works in the Republic.

You would think they would learn after their disastrous first round.

44 minutes ago, Imogi said:

Sweden seems to show that if you keep your interventions steady the rate of infection is steady.

Govt response strategy and messaging in England is far from steady. They are now effectively turning the blame on the public. Tegnell likes to make UK comparisons and you can see why.

Then again these are the people that did reduce official mortality by declaring 5,000 hadn't died of Convid because it was more than 28 days between test and death.

You can't make shit like this up. 

Eii9QHhXkAAyJIL.thumb.jpeg.d213a520489227131ac65732689d8962.jpeg 

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37 minutes ago, Imogi said:

True.  44% of those that have died were over 80.

The policy of kicking elderly out of hospitals to chase Covid treatment capacity is gone. Swedish health have said it will take a year to clear the backlog of procedures for all ages that have been suspended to deal with Covid. So little bit of potential Covid related mortality sitting there that is yet to happen.

Sweden excess mortality and official Covid mortality numbers more closely match unlike many others. That tends to make Sweden's mortality rate appear higher by comparison. In reality it's ranking doesn't change with excess mortality, it just makes the others numbers bigger.

2 hours ago, Imogi said:

  Some of the media reports seem a bit wrong. 

There is more polarised spin about Sweden than maybe any other country. Some of the more wrong is Swedish media which pisses off a lot of citizens reading material from international correspondents inside Sweden. 

Netherlands using a similiar pathway to Sweden but having to be a bit more interventionist (to compensate for not having Sweden's advantages) gets overlooked which is pretty funny. I have a young family member there who thinks they have caught it twice already and no one there thinks anymore of natural immunity as working.
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3 hours ago, Imogi said:

So Sweden is doing OK?  I see Denmark is turning to custard.  Amazing eh that Sweden has over 100,000 people aged over 90!

I hope that "Turning to custard" is stretching it. It is true that we have experienced a rise in the number of infected individuals, which has caused new measures to be introduced. I see that as a good thing. Let's hope we get the number of new infected per day down from the 550 it was yesterday.

The current totals in DK are as follows: a total of 643 people died with Corona, 5 people in the DK are in ventilator care, 15 are in intensive care and a total of 78 people are hospitalized.

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2 hours ago, silversurfer said:

I hope that "Turning to custard" is stretching it.

The Nordic 5 plus Netherlands on a per capita basis are all in a similiar postcode for cases and mortality trend atm.

Two Sweden and Netherlands with a generally similiar pathway and outcome to-date but now with some response changes to avoid a repeat of part 1. The other 4 the shining stars after part 1 but maybe wanting to loosen up a bit time permitting and get back to normal. This common boundary geographic and cultural grouping of 6 will be interesting to look at in the new year. Outside Asia, Oceania and heavy hitter Germany many will be looking at I think with some envy.

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There are apparently reports that Danish scientists attribute the difference in the curves between Denmark and Sweden to an 'immunity component'. Not full herd immunity, but a detectable attribution. 

https://politiken.dk/indland/art7929231/Tog-vi-fejl-om-flokimmunitet-De-meget-lave-svenske-smittetal-tyder-på-det

I find that very interesting. On the other hand, I would then suspect to see similar curves in Spain and Italy, where they were basically forced into the same direction as they had uncontrolled outbreaks, yet the data doesn't support that, especially in Madrid...

 

In Schweden infizieren sich seit Juli nicht mehr als 500 Menschen täglich - Dänemark befindet sich in der zweiten Welle.

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10 hours ago, Imogi said:

I think this Professor is right.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/108149/german-virologist-claims-uk-coronavirus-spike-can-be-stopped-without-second-lockdown

Arguably repeated lockdowns don't work.  Probably because by the time they are reintroduced the horse has already bolted.  Also the general population doesn't seem to have a high tolerance for them and tend to be tardy entering and overcompensate when released from them.

Perhaps that is one of the advantages of the Swedish approach where they have implemented a management strategy that although not perfect is sustainable and acceptable to the population.

Lockdowns serve only two purposes:

1. Keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, which drives the fatality rate up

2. Buy time to get test/trace/isolate in place so you don't need another lockdown

If you do 1 without 2, you're gonna need more lockdowns.

 

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1 hour ago, IStream said:

Lockdowns serve only two purposes:

1. Keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, which drives the fatality rate up

2. Buy time to get test/trace/isolate in place so you don't need another lockdown

If you do 1 without 2, you're gonna need more lockdowns.

 

Yet some of the richest and resources plentiful nations on earth after doing 1. too late and being belted, then have spent 6 months either ignoring the contact/trace/response aspect of 2. or paid lip service to it (with or without liberal doses of bullshit about true capacity) hoping it's just going away.

I have yet heard anyone say why do they do this??

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Because it's difficult.

Because it requires thinking beyond the short term.

Because it's expensive, even if it saves far more money than it initially costs.

Because the people who suffer disproportionately are disenfranchised.

Because certain politicians think it hurts their foes more than their base. 

Pick one or more.

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34 minutes ago, Imogi said:

What does the science say?  Take out all the political BS and look at the science.

I do. In exactly the way science need to be looked at. More open than you think. See my other posts. No cursing, no political BS here.

Also just apply some logic to what anyone can observe.  When a surge in infections is identified by testing Governments are slow to respond to implementing a lockdown policy.  By the time they do the cycle is well advanced.  For example if you look at the UK's current surge you could argue that because they didn't act sooner that they would be better to ride this current cycle out. 

Why? What undisputed evidence makes 'riding out' the logical consequence?

The assumption however is that enforcing stricter rules will lower the peak in infections even though evidence suggests that such actions don't. 

Again: what undisputed evidence makes this the logical consequence?

BTW enforcing a 10pm bar closing in my opinion seems a nonsense when the evidence shows it isn't the hour of the day or even the temperature that facilitates infection but how many people you cram into a small space!

If you were vulnerable to infection and complications from Covid-19 why do you need the Government to tell you to not go to the bar and be home by 10pm?

Agreed. There is little logic I see to support that, seems arbitrary.

So instead of researching his scientific work and its value you have looked for a reason to discredit him and thus his observations/research about lockdowns.  His latest published epidemiology work was looking at the effect of a mass social gathering on infection rate and mortality.  

Careful. I'm from Germany, from the exact area. I follow Streeck's work closely and I am probably more aware than you of the everyday tabloid fights of Germany's leading virologists, whom all have differing opinions.

None bar Streecks project had a PR agency. And if a scientific project has a PR agency to get a message across, I find that to be noteworthy and problematic: just because everyone can hear an opinion doesn't make it right and other viewpoints get drowned out easily.

.

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Yet some of the richest and resources plentiful nations on earth after doing 1. too late and being belted, then have spent 6 months either ignoring the contact/trace/response aspect of 2. or paid lip service to it (with or without liberal doses of bullshit about true capacity) hoping it's just going away.

I have yet heard anyone say why do they do this??

I posted some observations and questions on a medical reddit 2 weeks ago after seeing ad hoc ppe and no clear plan for staffing or room placement in my rural red state hospital. 

A couple docs said, "that sounds like NYC in the early days."

 

The lack of national leadership really has had a trickle down.  There is no reason that here in September hospital administration should be scratching its head. My hospital is not a horribly mismanaged corporate thing like HCA and others.  We are independent nonprofit 

 

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Yet some of the richest and resources plentiful nations on earth after doing 1. too late and being belted, then have spent 6 months either ignoring the contact/trace/response aspect of 2. or paid lip service to it (with or without liberal doses of bullshit about true capacity) hoping it's just going away.

I have yet heard anyone say why do they do this??

Give me convenience or give me death?

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5 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

I posted some observations and questions on a medical reddit 2 weeks ago after seeing ad hoc ppe and no clear plan for staffing or room placement in my rural red state hospital. 

A couple docs said, "that sounds like NYC in the early days."

The lack of national leadership really has had a trickle down.  There is no reason that here in September hospital administration should be scratching its head. My hospital is not a horribly mismanaged corporate thing like HCA and others.  We are independent nonprofit 

Unfortunately in a war real or virus, hospitals are not a line of defence.

They are out the back and remote with zero control over how many, what type and in what state over those who come in the front door. 

As Eye and many have pointed out, health care capacity to successfully treat is now chalk and cheese compared to the beginning. Anyone in authority who hasn't got that sorted by now really deserves rat fucking.

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I will leave this here

- Manaus’ lower socioeconomic conditions, more crowded housing and reliance on boat travel accelerated the spread.

- Manus 42% - 52% infected at the June peak, 66% infected overall and no vaccine. Seroprevalence fell, reaching 30 percent in August.

- Infection rate in in the west nationally single figures and cities double figures are quoted.

- Manus only 6 percent of the population is over 60 so costs of limited interventions where more older people much higher.

- 4,000 people died city of 2 million people had 4.5 times as many deaths as expected for that time of year. 

- Infection Fatality Rate between 0.17 and 0.28 percent which is less than half the accepted global mean of 0.6%.

The above appears to give weight to the original mortality projections for places like the US and UK if there were no interventions.

Overall, Manaus’ experience reveals “that an unmitigated outbreak will lead to very significant morbidity and mortality,” says Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, “which is basically what we’ve been saying since February.”

16 Sept medRxiv - COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon

24 Sept Science News - "A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity"

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^^^^^^^ This is worth a look having regard to this "they would be better to ride this current cycle out." AND having regard to the UK's contact/trace/test and response being a catastrofuck.

8 hours ago, Imogi said:

For example if you look at the UK's current surge you could argue that because they didn't act sooner that they would be better to ride this current cycle out. 

Then this 

8 hours ago, Imogi said:

The assumption however is that enforcing stricter rules will lower the peak in infections even though evidence suggests that such actions don't.   

BTW enforcing a 10pm bar closing in my opinion seems a nonsense when the evidence shows it isn't the hour of the day or even the temperature that facilitates infection but how many people you cram into a small space!

"The assumption however is that enforcing stricter rules will lower the peak in infections even though evidence suggests that such actions don't.

What EVIDENCE is that?

'BTW enforcing a 10pm bar closing  in my opinion seems a nonsense when the evidence shows it isn't the hour of the day or even the temperature that facilitates infection.."

EVIDENCE shows when people are pissed social distancing goes out the window. Evidence shows people who are pissed even bang each other without knowing the others name and sneak off in the morning not leaving their phone number making tracing impossible if who they banged is infected.

However you could have an alternative rule of no limit on closing time but if you are pissed you get fined. Which rule would many Brits prefer you think?

BTW you also missed the UK's best rule.

So you can't bang each other even when you know each other. You will have to have been banging each other before the latest ruling to be allowed to get laid in the UK until further notice. Though I see a loophole where even if strangers weren't banging pre ruling but start banging now and keep banging and get married they are probably off the hook. Have a kid as evidence will be sure to get you off. Divorce and unmarried mother's rates will unfortunately spike if this defence is widely adopted putting stress on Govt social security budget. 

The 'no banging others' rule is very apt for a country that fucked 'itself' at round 1 and is now lining up for a second go doing exactly the same fucking thing.

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^^^^ PS 

There is a right wing Tory backbench revolt happening opposed to the Executive Govt willingness to adopt stricter interventions by having any future interventions put to Parliament. 

My guess is those backbenchers have a large proportion of 'ugly' consituents who see themselves not getting laid for 6 months or more without their partner for that short romantic interlude being totally pissed.

That or by supporting a 'let it rip' policy are ignorant to or don't care their own contact/trace/test and response strategy is fucked.

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On 9/16/2020 at 8:18 AM, jack_sparrow said:

..However like a lot of countries there is a increase in under 65's years cases with people back at work after summer holidays so workplace cases rise.

Also they too have seen their positive per test rise but that has dropped and leveled out suggesting tests are now catching a greater number of cases that would have previously gone undetected. So on balance probably good chance they have had it...

Sweden is finally catching on that they are not that different from other countries. The rise in contact/trace/test and isolate since the middle of last month was the first outward sign.

Tegnell is also starting to be more upfront publically about that comparison and the challenges they face. Very refreshing. 

'We are going slowly but surely in the wrong direction' warns Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell

"One of the likely factors behind the increasing spread of infection, according to the Public Health Agency, is people returning to work after the summer holiday, despite official recommendations to work from home. 

'This is one of the big differences compared to earlier,' said Tegnell. The current recommendation is that everyone who has the possibility to do so should work from home."

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Hey does anyone know if its true that you gotta go back almost 3 months to find a day with double digit covid deaths in Sweden?

All while Europe starts to lock down yet again poor lemmings.

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3 hours ago, Wess said:

Hey does anyone know if its true that you gotta go back almost 3 months to find a day with double digit covid deaths in Sweden?

All while Europe starts to lock down yet again poor lemmings.

You do realize that -on a per capita basis- that also applies to Italy, right?

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7 hours ago, Wess said:

Hey does anyone know if its true that you gotta go back almost 3 months to find a day with double digit covid deaths in Sweden?

I guess that's a rhetorical question. But yes, lots of people know and it depends on your definition of "almost". According to world–o–meters, the last double digit death day was 18 July so more than 2 weeks less than 3 months.

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3 hours ago, Wess said:

That is some demented math and Italy is back on the way up.

No, you just don't like it.

Otherwise, I could quote the figures for Vatican City, they are impressive, given their rather ageing population.

An absolute number is worthless, you have to have a basis for comparison, and that is of course number of inhabitants.

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Sweden's daily COVID-19 cases hit highest level since June (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-cases/swedens-daily-covid-19-cases-hit-highest-level-since-june-idUSKBN26M63D?il=0

Oh, and also, starting today:

Sweden to lift COVID ban on visits to care homes

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden/sweden-to-lift-covid-ban-on-visits-to-care-homes-idUSKBN2661WP

So, yeah, basically: Let's see how that goes unbelievably right.

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23 hours ago, Wess said:

Hey does anyone know if its true that you gotta go back almost 3 months to find a day with double digit covid deaths in Sweden?

All while Europe starts to lock down yet again poor lemmings.

Covid party at ‘Wess’s’House! ;)

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35 minutes ago, Amati said:

Covid party at ‘Wess’s’House! ;)

Been there; done that.  Survived and thrived without so much as a lost nights sleep.  Now before you go and misquote me or take it out of context, I stayed far from my parents once I learned I had (was asymptomatic) it as it most likely would kill them.  The nature of what I do (outside the office) puts me at higher risk.  Though older, being in good health meant it was a non-event for me. 

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5 minutes ago, Wess said:

Been there; done that.  Survived and thrived without so much as a lost nights sleep.  Now before you go and misquote me or take it out of context, I stayed far from my parents once I learned I had (was asymptomatic) it as it most likely would kill them.  The nature of what I do (outside the office) puts me at higher risk.  Though older, being in good health meant it was a non-event for me. 

This is how stupid you sound:

I've never had a car crash, so we should get rid of safety regulations and traffic laws.

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35 minutes ago, Wess said:

Been there; done that.  Survived and thrived without so much as a lost nights sleep.  Now before you go and misquote me or take it out of context, I stayed far from my parents once I learned I had (was asymptomatic) it as it most likely would kill them.  The nature of what I do (outside the office) puts me at higher risk.  Though older, being in good health meant it was a non-event for me. 

What I’m trying to figure out is if you know who’s going to get it., and what severity it will be?

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1 hour ago, Wess said:

Been there; done that.  Survived and thrived without so much as a lost nights sleep.  Now before you go and misquote me or take it out of context, I stayed far from my parents once I learned I had (was asymptomatic) it as it most likely would kill them.  The nature of what I do (outside the office) puts me at higher risk.  Though older, being in good health meant it was a non-event for me. 

What was your quarantine process?

Asking for a friend.

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Process?  You quarantine until negative test.  Pretty straight forward so not sure what you are asking.  Or Amati. The mortality and severity associated with various age groups and health status is pretty well known.  My experience was typical for my age and health.  Its also why (in part) I am open to the Swedish approach to dealing with the virus.  It ain't going away, you ain't gonna have a cure or vaccine any time soon (IMHO), so you need a long term strategy that society broadly are willing to embrace and adhere to.

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Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems to Have Scourge Controlled  - NY Times  Sep 29, 2020 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-strategy.html
 

“Today, all of the European countries are more or less following the Swedish model, combined with the testing, tracing and quarantine procedures the Germans have introduced, but none will admit it,” said Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health, in Geneva.

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36 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems to Have Scourge Controlled  - NY Times  Sep 29, 2020 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-strategy.html
 

“Today, all of the European countries are more or less following the Swedish model, combined with the testing, tracing and quarantine procedures the Germans have introduced, but none will admit it,” said Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health, in Geneva.

'Whether that is an aberration remains to be seen.'

That is a quote from the sub-headline of THE SAME FREAKING ARTICLE!!!

And: what is that supposed to mean: following the so-called 'Swedish' model AND all the other measures? That means basically... everything? anything? What is Flahault talking about? Honestly. That is not very specific. 

Plus: please please please stop thinking about 'the Swedish model' as something very open. Truth is: shops stayed open. Schools for pupils <15 stayed open, too. Secondary schools and universities closed though, and there was a strict ban regarding visitors in care homes. And people vastly reduced their social contacts voluntarily to about 30% pre-plague levels. And remember: the country still payed a price higher than their neighbours in the first round. 

If they can benefit from that now? See above. I would be cautious and only wait for spring 2021 for a conclusion.  

Currently, there is already an uptick in C-19 related admissions to ICU. Not much in total numbers, thankfully. But +100% since early September, which is -percentagewise- in line with the trend in other European countries. 

image.png.674a846d9e13624890f90efa68cce881.png

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On 10/2/2020 at 9:25 PM, Wess said:

Its also why (in part) I am open to the Swedish approach to dealing with the virus.

1 hour ago, BlatantEcho said:

“Today, all of the European countries are more or less following the Swedish model,

 

For both of you to say that indicates you are actually clueless to what the Swedish model is.

That also makes you ignorant of many other countries with models similiar to but superior to Sweden's and adopted at day one. There is a common denominator there whether it be as far removed from Iceland to Taiwan or even within the Nordic 5. That is two pillars of one a cooperative strategy Govt/Public and two the Govt throwing resources at it as their part of the bargain. 

Sweden only had one pillar and is now playing catch up to erase their initial fuck up but you two refuse to accept that. 

Always a unsubstantiated agenda ..there is always a liar.

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On 10/2/2020 at 4:25 AM, Wess said:

Process?  You quarantine until negative test.  Pretty straight forward so not sure what you are asking.  Or Amati. The mortality and severity associated with various age groups and health status is pretty well known.  My experience was typical for my age and health.  Its also why (in part) I am open to the Swedish approach to dealing with the virus.  It ain't going away, you ain't gonna have a cure or vaccine any time soon (IMHO), so you need a long term strategy that society broadly are willing to embrace and adhere to.

How did you get tested and still quarantine?  Did you get a test after quarantine?

Funny, doctors in the family keep telling me little is known about the virus,  they tend to agree, for example, with Dr. Vin Gupta (look him up on Twitter).  

It sounds like you’re encouraging playing odds


-do you believe you can get it again?

-do you believe if you can, and if so, do you believe it will be the same severity?

-are you still shedding the virus?  What test did you take to determine that, specifically?  Do you know, or do you believe you are not infectious? 

- are you still wearing a mask?  Respirator?  

-have you had any lingering distress, like lung issues?  Fatigue? Fuzziness?  

-have you had medical follow up?  Are you volunteering for any studies?

-have you volunteered blood for antibody studies?

-what has your doctor told you?


 

 


 



 

 

 


 

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You seriously think I will answer either of you and that BS. LOL you are dreaming. 
 

Respirator, OMG you had me laughing at that one.

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18 minutes ago, Wess said:

You seriously think I will answer either of you and that BS. LOL you are dreaming. 
 

Respirator, OMG you had me laughing at that one.

BS?  You claim COVID was a nothingburger for you.  You clearly don’t want to help-  you claim you’ve had it, and you believe you have immunity going forward, so fuck everybody else?  I hope you’re right, but I think you’re guessing.
 

BTW, A respirator is an N 95.  The difference between a mask and a respirator is: 

a mask protect can others,

a respirator protects you (Although it can protect others too, depending on the design).  
 

But I get it, you won’t need either a mask or a respirator:  so fierce!  So brave! 

 


 

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46 minutes ago, Wess said:

You seriously think I will answer either of you and that BS. LOL you are dreaming. 
 

Respirator, OMG you had me laughing at that one.

Your initial answer was that it was ‘pretty straightforward’. 

Amati has asked some ‘pretty straightforward’ questions.

Why so defensive?

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7 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

A mask can be N95.  N95 is a specification for a mask OR a respirator that 95% of airborne particles are filtered.

And this is the problem- there are no specific terms precisely defining ‘mask’ and ‘respirator’.  Or, from your post, in all it’s vagueness,  protection for others vs self protection?  So aside from filtering levels, what is your definitional difference between a. Mask and a Respirator?  Mine has come from Nurses and doctors.  What does an n 95 with a one way valve, flow either in or out, count as?  Can you be more specific about which masks do what?  And their names?

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16 minutes ago, Amati said:

And this is the problem- there are no specific terms precisely defining ‘mask’ and ‘respirator’.  Or, from your post, in all it’s vagueness,  protection for others vs self protection?  So aside from filtering levels, what is your definitional difference between a. Mask and a Respirator?  Mine has come from Nurses and doctors.  What does an n 95 with a one way valve, flow either in or out, count as?  Can you be more specific about which masks do what?  And their names?

Equally I don't understand the point you are trying to make.  There are very clear definitions/standards for the multitude of masks and respirators that are available.  

However from a "public" health perspective (NOT a health or hospital worker)  there is a significant difference in cost.  Just as there is another quantum increase in cost if you want to eliminate 100% of airborne particles.  A difference in cents vs dollars.  You can buy an N95 mask for less than 25 cents yet a N100 respirator will cost at least $10.  Both single use!

If we all entered into a debate about the pro's and con's of one mask/respirator vs another then we would be in danger of generating misinformation e.g. people might say well I can't afford a N100 Respirator so stuff it I won't bother.  The key health message is wearing a mask reduces the risk of transmission and infection.

Although how much the risk is reduced is dependent on how securely the mask is attached to the face - if there isn't a flexible seal that closes the gaps off then how much is actually filtered?  Certainly less than 95%.  Then if you don't remove the mask/respirator in the correct fashion, thoroughly wash your hands AND dispose of the mask safely then wearing a mask becomes less and less effective.

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37 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

A lEqually I don't understand the point you are trying to make.  There are very clear definitions/standards for the multitude of masks and respirators that are available.  

However from a "public" health perspective (NOT a health or hospital worker)  there is a significant difference in cost.  Just as there is another quantum increase in cost if you want to eliminate 100% of airborne particles.  A difference in cents vs dollars.  You can buy an N95 mask for less than 25 cents yet a N100 respirator will cost at least $10.  Both single use!

If we all entered into a debate about the pro's and con's of one mask/respirator vs another then we would be in danger of generating misinformation e.g. people might say well I can't afford a N100 Respirator so stuff it I won't bother.  The key health message is wearing a mask reduces the risk of transmission and infection.

I think you’re making an assumption that I don’t understand.  A link to definition/standards for masks and respirators?  Please?  You have not explained a specific difference, you’ve only pointed out that there are differences, a difference in cost, a difference in theatre, effectiveness (maybe...), and you’ve implied (Also maybe?) the great unwashed just won’t understand,. For example, I’ve come across testing information that some masks (like bandanas) makes COVID exhalation worse Because they break up globules into smaller particles that spread more widely, and are harder to filter for.  I’d be glad to post it again, if that would help.  If any of this grates, I apologize, but we lived the Washington State experiment, where we were forced into dyi PPE for everybody, the medical community on down because Trump was convinced Gov Inslee was a rat, and we needed help understanding what we were doing.

for example (with testing)

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-diy-coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-covid/

Who’s ‘we’ anyway?

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24 minutes ago, Amati said:

If any of this grates, I apologize, but we lived the Washington State experiment, where we were forced into dyi PPE for everybody, the medical community on down because Trump was convinced Gov Inslee was a rat, and we need help understanding.

You are not "grating" - discussions such as this are good.  I can relate to your story of a bandana - I got admonished by a bus driver for wearing one as a mask while she was wearing this perspex shield that although it covered her face was not sealed around her nose or mouth at all!

There is lots of science that shows both sides of the debate about masks - depending on where you are discussing it one side is viewed as misinformation and the other not!

My personal opinion is a certified inexpensive 50 cent N95 single-use mask securely fitted to the face can do no harm.  Although I'd be very careful taking it off and disposing it because when you think about it the outside of the mask accumulates a lot of airborne particles during a day!  As humans we breathe 8 litres of air a minute!  That puts a lot of nasties on the outside of the mask!

A mask does reduce the velocity of our exhalation so therefore reduces the risk of transmitting infection.

Which brings us to the other two key things in reducing viral spread - personal hygiene (washing hands and not touching the mouth or nose) and maintaining distance between yourself and others in a social setting.

If you are an at risk person then reduce your social contact - wear a mask, don't touch the front of your mask, don't put your hands near your mouth or nose and wash them when you get home and don't stand or sit within 2m of anyone regardless.

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3 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You are not "grating" - discussions such as this are good.  I can relate to your story of a bandana - I got admonished by a bus driver for wearing one as a mask while she was wearing this perspex shield that although it covered her face was not sealed around her nose or mouth at all!

There is lots of science that shows both sides of the debate about masks - depending on where you are discussing it one side is viewed as misinformation and the other not!

My personal opinion is a certified inexpensive N95 mask securely fitted to the face can do no harm.  Although I'd be very careful taking it off and disposing it because when you think about it the outside of the mask accumulates a lot of airborne particles during a day!  As humans we breathe 8 litres of air a minute!  That puts a lot of nasties on the outside of the mask!

A mask does reduce the velocity of our exhalation so therefore reduces the risk of transmitting infection.

Which brings us to the other two key things in reducing viral spread - personal hygiene (washing hands and not touching the mouth or nose) and maintaining distance between yourself and others in a social setting.

If you are an at risk person then reduce your social contact - wear a mask, don't touch the front of your mask, don't put your hands near your mouth or nose and wash them when you get home and don't stand or sit within 2m of anyone regardless.

If only n 95’s were available outside the medical community....... but what is your understanding of the difference between a mask and a respirator?

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51 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

??  There seem to be heaps available online from the likes of Amazon and eBay.  

LOL if you are like most of us boaties you probably have a box of them somewhere from the last time you sanded the anti-foul!

Had 2, down to one- 170 degrees for half an hour in the oven supposedly dismantles the protein, but after a while crumples the mask.  Amazon?  Not yet, although they do have n99 cartridges available for the big boys. (Mask? Respirator?)  That does lead to some startled reactions to the pink and grey.

https://www.amazon.com/3M-Cartridges-Respirators/s?k=3M+Cartridges+for+Respirators

Respirators?  Not really, right?

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9 minutes ago, Amati said:

Had 2, down to one- 170 degrees for half an hour in the oven supposedly dismantles the protein, but after a while crumples the mask.  Amazon?  Not yet, although they do have n99 cartridges available for the big boys. (Mask? Respirator?)  That does lead to some startled reactions to the pink and grey.

https://www.amazon.com/3M-Cartridges-Respirators/s?k=3M+Cartridges+for+Respirators

Respirators?  Not really, right?

Doesn't it come down to your risk profile?  Age, comorbidities, social mobility?  

I would have thought that unless your personal risk of mortality was high a respirator of the one you list would be overkill.  However if you did wear one - don't forget to wash your hands after taking it off!

What's wrong with something like this?

3M: We'll make more N95 masks for the US but we need to keep exporting them  - CNN

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13 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Doesn't it come down to your risk profile?  Age, comorbidities, social mobility?  

I would have thought that unless your personal risk of mortality was high a respirator of the one you list would be overkill.  However if you did wear one - don't forget to wash your hands after taking it off!

What's wrong with something like this?

3M: We'll make more N95 masks for the US but we need to keep exporting them  - CNN

Can’t get them- look it up on Amazon- Kn95’s are available, but there are problems involved, workmanship etc.....

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6 minutes ago, Amati said:

Can’t get them- look it up on Amazon- Kn95’s are available, but there are problems involved, workmanship etc.....

But there is stuff all difference.  You'll find that 3M are probably manufacturing in the same factories!  You could argue that because the KN95 test included a "leakage test" that they are better.  Yes you have a point regarding authenticity however you can research this.  "Made in China" isn't all that bad! 

Difference Between N95 and KN95 Masks Highlighted

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8 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

But there is stuff all difference.  You'll find that 3M are probably manufacturing in the same factories!  You could argue that because the KN95 test included a "leakage test" that they are better.  Yes you have a point regarding authenticity however you can research this.  "Made in China" isn't all that bad! 

Difference Between N95 and KN95 Masks Highlighted

Ummm.....

https://www.dentalproductsreport.com/view/fda-bans-use-kn95-masks-weeks-after-failed-testing

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38 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Isn't there a mask thread down the hallway or are you lost?

Where?:)  This was starting to look like the argument bureau!

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6 hours ago, fufkin said:

Your initial answer was that it was ‘pretty straightforward’. 

Amati has asked some ‘pretty straightforward’ questions.

Why so defensive?

Mate you will have better luck having the zealot answer this; 'If the Universe was born at the Big Bang, what existed before then'?

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7 hours ago, Amati said:

And this is the problem- there are no specific terms precisely defining ‘mask’ and ‘respirator’.  Or, from your post, in all it’s vagueness,  protection for others vs self protection?  So aside from filtering levels, what is your definitional difference between a. Mask and a Respirator?  Mine has come from Nurses and doctors.  What does an n 95 with a one way valve, flow either in or out, count as?  Can you be more specific about which masks do what?  And their names?

Lets start out with the first letter in the designation.

The "N" means it is useful for filtering non-oil based particles.  These seem to always take the form of a cloth mask.

  A "P" is for oil based particles.  These are found in the form of a rubber (or similar material) mask with filter cartridges.

 The digits signify the percent of particles  < .3 microns in size that are blocked

So an N95 mask or P95 respirator block >95%.  An N100 mask or P100 respirator block >99.9%

Now to get to the nitty gritty.  A coronavirus particle is typically 0.125 microns in size.  So at first glance one would assume an N95 mask is not effective since the virus is almost 1/3 the size filtered by the mesh. 

However, I read somewhere that a virus particle seldom exists in isolation and that it is usually attached to something else - so the aggregate size is often large enough to be blocked by the mesh.  Further, N95 masks are electrostatically charged in manufacture which will attract particles much smaller than the virus.  Add in Brownian motion, and you have a quite effective filter against the virus - both for yourself and others.

Now one problem is they do require periodic cleaning, and at that point the electrostatic charge has usually worn off.  So you have to then use a new one - or it looks like there are places that can recharge them  but probably hard to track one down

I found an article where they lab tested the efficacy of N95 mask against the virus - and it turns out even surgical masks provide a decent deal of protection even for the wearer. 

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/can-masks-capture-coronavirus/

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9 hours ago, 12 metre said:

Lets start out with the first letter in the designation.

The "N" means it is useful for filtering non-oil based particles.  These seem to always take the form of a cloth mask.

  A "P" is for oil based particles.  These are found in the form of a rubber (or similar material) mask with filter cartridges.

 The digits signify the percent of particles  < .3 microns in size that are blocked

So an N95 mask or P95 respirator block >95%.  An N100 mask or P100 respirator block >99.9%

Now to get to the nitty gritty.  A coronavirus particle is typically 0.125 microns in size.  So at first glance one would assume an N95 mask is not effective since the virus is almost 1/3 the size filtered by the mesh. 

However, I read somewhere that a virus particle seldom exists in isolation and that it is usually attached to something else - so the aggregate size is often large enough to be blocked by the mesh.  Further, N95 masks are electrostatically charged in manufacture which will attract particles much smaller than the virus.  Add in Brownian motion, and you have a quite effective filter against the virus - both for yourself and others.

Now one problem is they do require periodic cleaning, and at that point the electrostatic charge has usually worn off.  So you have to then use a new one - or it looks like there are places that can recharge them  but probably hard to track one down

I found an article where they lab tested the efficacy of N95 mask against the virus - and it turns out even surgical masks provide a decent deal of protection even for the wearer. 

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/can-masks-capture-coronavirus/

Thanks for that. It’s bugged me since February that a major industrial player with a bunch of sadistic intensional spreaders (USA) can’t  get its shit together and offer masks that might be worth a damn in our fucked up situation. 

FWIW, i started posting the air filter stuff back in March.

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My metric for when the US is getting its shit together is when you see Lysol/Clorox wipes back in the supermarket and when you can get 3M N95 masks again. Until and unless those things are true, we're still deep in the woods, vaccine or no vaccine.

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Mate you will have better luck having the zealot answer this; 'If the Universe was born at the Big Bang, what existed before then'?

?

 

 

08A72C72-02C2-4DDE-9F1F-D9AEEFB7BE1D.jpeg

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19 hours ago, Amati said:

BS?  You claim COVID was a nothingburger for you.  You clearly don’t want to help-  you claim you’ve had it, and you believe you have immunity going forward, so fuck everybody else?  I hope you’re right, but I think you’re guessing.
 

BTW, A respirator is an N 95.  The difference between a mask and a respirator is: 

a mask protect can others,

a respirator protects you (Although it can protect others too, depending on the design).  
 

But I get it, you won’t need either a mask or a respirator:  so fierce!  So brave! 

 


 

 

19 hours ago, fufkin said:

Your initial answer was that it was ‘pretty straightforward’. 

Amati has asked some ‘pretty straightforward’ questions.

Why so defensive?

The list of questions was a combination of too stupid to merit an answer or too personal and detailed.  And as above directly misquotes what I have previously said.  So not just stupid but a stupid liar.

But since it so important to you the short answer is yes I was tested for both covid and antibodies on multiple occasions and I followed the advise and counsel of my doctor. Anything else is too personal other than saying since I was largely asymptomatic there was no treatment or medical intervention of any kind involved.

You guys crack me up.

 

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7 minutes ago, Wess said:

 

The list of questions was a combination of too stupid to merit an answer or too personal and detailed.  And as above directly misquotes what I have previously said.  So not just stupid but a stupid liar.

But since it so important to you the short answer is yes I was tested for both covid and antibodies on multiple occasions and I followed the advise and counsel of my doctor. Anything else is too personal other than saying since I was largely asymptomatic there was no treatment or medical intervention of any kind involved.

You guys crack me up.

 

Jesus, Wess, you told us that you had COVID.  If you really believed in your medical privacy why would you even have posted it on the web?  

We may crack you up, but you come off as a crackpot condescending elitist right wing troll.  
 

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46 minutes ago, IStream said:

My metric for when the US is getting its shit together is when you see Lysol/Clorox wipes back in the supermarket and when you can get 3M N95 masks again. Until and unless those things are true, we're still deep in the woods, vaccine or no vaccine.

N95 masks are crucial.  Cleansing wipes not so much.  It is generally held that the virus is only transmissible person to person - not surface to person.  i believe there is only one suspected case of surface to human transmission and that was from an elevator button in China - and even that is not confirmed.

So cleaning surfaces doesn't really do much good other than overall hygiene or eliminating other pathogens.  Or makes the user feel they are doing something or have some form of control.

Not sure if we are as deep in the woods as some think.  All the talk has been about anti-bodies and vaccines.  The whole cellular immunity via T Cells has been largely ignored - at least by the media.  A lot more people may be immune via T Cell response.  Here is an article in the BMJ about it: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

Quote from the article " T cell studies have received scant media attention, in contrast to research on antibodies, which seem to dominate the news (probably, says Buggert, because antibodies are easier, faster, and cheaper to study than T cells)".

 

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41 minutes ago, 12 metre said:

N95 masks are crucial.  Cleansing wipes not so much.  It is generally held that the virus is only transmissible person to person - not surface to person.  i believe there is only one suspected case of surface to human transmission and that was from an elevator button in China - and even that is not confirmed.

So cleaning surfaces doesn't really do much good other than overall hygiene or eliminating other pathogens.  Or makes the user feel they are doing something or have some form of control.

Not sure if we are as deep in the woods as some think.  All the talk has been about anti-bodies and vaccines.  The whole cellular immunity via T Cells has been largely ignored - at least by the media.  A lot more people may be immune via T Cell response.  Here is an article in the BMJ about it: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

Quote from the article " T cell studies have received scant media attention, in contrast to research on antibodies, which seem to dominate the news (probably, says Buggert, because antibodies are easier, faster, and cheaper to study than T cells)".

 

That ^^^^^^ reminds me of this (which is an antidote to the news today, at any rate).  Enjoy. & FWIW, we’ll continue to disinfect until the ubiquitous pluralism tells us hand washing isnt necessary.

 

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37 minutes ago, 12 metre said:

N95 masks are crucial.  Cleansing wipes not so much.  It is generally held that the virus is only transmissible person to person - not surface to person.  i believe there is only one suspected case of surface to human transmission and that was from an elevator button in China - and even that is not confirmed.

So cleaning surfaces doesn't really do much good other than overall hygiene or eliminating other pathogens.  Or makes the user feel they are doing something or have some form of control.

Not sure if we are as deep in the woods as some think.  All the talk has been about anti-bodies and vaccines.  The whole cellular immunity via T Cells has been largely ignored - at least by the media.  A lot more people may be immune via T Cell response.  Here is an article in the BMJ about it: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

Quote from the article " T cell studies have received scant media attention, in contrast to research on antibodies, which seem to dominate the news (probably, says Buggert, because antibodies are easier, faster, and cheaper to study than T cells)".

 

I understand, but I don't think we know enough to rule out surface transmission. In any case, the fact that cleaning wipes aren't widely available says that our glorious capitalist utopia is operating a bit below peak efficiency.

Re: T-cells, my pet theory (which is unhindered by supporting data) is that people with younger children may have a leg up because the kids bring home so many corona viruses that their parents may have some incidental memory T cell immunity or at least a more rapid immune reaction to COVID. 

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20 hours ago, Amati said:

Jesus, Wess, you told us that you had COVID.  If you really believed in your medical privacy why would you even have posted it on the web?  

We may crack you up, but you come off as a crackpot condescending elitist right wing troll.  
 

And you a leftist loon but whatever. For me having covid was a non event as was it for100% of the dozen or so folks that I know well that became infected.  Most had none or mild symptoms and one had a loss of taste and smell for a few weeks (she is 50 yo). All these folks were in their 50s (as am I) or late teens/early 20s. I also know two elderly folks who died that are counted as covid deaths but absolutely did not die of covid.  I don't actually know anyone who did die from it.  Not saying it can't happen or doesn't happen and not saying this translates broadly (and if you are really old, really fat, or sick it wont); but its my experience.  I am as sick of the "its all black" BS from the right as I am "its all white" BS from your loony left corner. The reality is this is pretty grey and if we had all adopted a measured and rationale approach we might all have fared better both disease wise and society wise.

Oh and meanwhile Sweden still chugs along at 0 or 1 deaths a day and minimal restrictions while Europe flairs up and locks down yet again so have fun with that. 

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20 minutes ago, Wess said:

 The reality is this is pretty grey and if we had all adopted a measured and rationale approach we might all have fared better both disease wise and society wise.

 

My dead Aunt Joanie and the 11 other people who died in her community are 'pretty grey'

 

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