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The Swedish Experiment


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10 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

63% of those that have died in Sweden were OVER the life expectancy age.  

25% were over age 90!

That isn't misinformation it is fact.  

All I want for Christmas for you this year:

41fHDpCyQTL.jpg

https://www.amazon.de/Death-clock-ticking-Discrimination-Geriatric-ebook/dp/B084RMMN6L

Sadly, it will only be published a week later. Still, I feel it is a must-read for you.

Or anyone who thinks there is no real right-to-life beyond your best-before date.

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Im hazarding a guess that you have never had to walk into the waiting room and tell a husband, son daughter father that their wife mother daughter has passed. Because today in the USA 512 doctors or n

Everyone in this thread is probably in a nursing home. They sound like Joe Biden trying to form a cognitive sentence.    "Uh, but, cases only, g.g.g.g.go down with lock-down." 'If you don't w

This is how stupid you sound: I've never had a car crash, so we should get rid of safety regulations and traffic laws.

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12 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

You are right @Rain Man  Group think does require less work. Going with the herd is comfortable.  Doing what you're told is easy.
 

Congrats on taking the easy road. Ignoring the evidence and or thinking for yourself.

You're just what the media wants.  An open mouth, closed mind, and only seeing one side of any equation.
You're the perfect consumer. Complicate, dependent and convinced you're right.

Enjoy!

Hardly.  I've read your opinions and those of others who argue the same case, reviewed the science, done the hard work, and chosen to go with the science and majority opinion.  You, on the other hand, ignore all the counter-arguments, don't answer questions when asked, and continue to press your case without evidence.  All the anecdotes you use to support  your opinion are easily explained.  The sources you use for your information are questionable at best and the conclusions you draw are simply wrong.

I have a long history of questioning authority and acting on beliefs that are contrary to conventional thought in the face of stiff opposition.  Your accusations are laughable.  

You're not exactly a shining example of an open mind yourself.   

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Since Sweden now has herd immunity and their pandemic is over I'm assuming that they would not have any interest in getting the vaccine, right?

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-19 at 5.11.57 PM.png

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For all those who think I'm biased (probably true, by the way, as we all are...), here's my gift:

The German deaths / million / 7 day does not get enough attention currently. I think too many people are still somewhat starstruck by how it went earlier this year.

Currently, it is basically the same as in the US and worse than Sweden, way worse than the Netherlands.

Someone needs to be responsible for that, but too much responsibility is shared and than lost in this federal system, currently.

swe5.jpg.da05edbf1fd94d91de27541940548d4d.jpg

link

Zum Kotzen. (Google it.)

But the first charts are 'deaths', so sadly showing mistakes from four to six, eight weeks ago. But if that is bad and this down here, current cases, is the canary in the coal mine, than things are going to be really bad in Sweden, I fear (differences in testing regimes and current measures not withstanding...

swe6.png.4d6760544d0a887e546f8ad77bbc1d3e.png

 

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On 12/19/2020 at 12:58 PM, Rain Man said:

Hardly.  I've read your opinions and those of others who argue the same case, reviewed the science, done the hard work, and chosen to go with the science and majority opinion.  You, on the other hand, ignore all the counter-arguments, don't answer questions when asked, and continue to press your case without evidence.  All the anecdotes you use to support  your opinion are easily explained.  The sources you use for your information are questionable at best and the conclusions you draw are simply wrong.

I have a long history of questioning authority and acting on beliefs that are contrary to conventional thought in the face of stiff opposition.  Your accusations are laughable.  

You're not exactly a shining example of an open mind yourself.   

When you talk to a rock do you expect a response?

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14 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Sweden has dropped about 19 places on the deaths per 1m chart.  That's 0.08% of the population.  So they must be doing something right.  

You can't drop places unless you reincarnate people.

Sweden has been passed by other countries, many undeveloped and highly populated. Sweden can't claim credit for others failings.

Sweden's wave one death numbers are their tombstone and are engraved in stone. You can't fiddle numbers in stone.

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On 12/20/2020 at 10:09 AM, TheDragon said:

Since Sweden now has herd immunity and their pandemic is over I'm assuming that they would not have any interest in getting the vaccine, right?

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-19 at 5.11.57 PM.png

The most impressive thing about this is Norway. When you consider they share a 1600KM/1000Mile land border with Sweden, they have done well to keep those Swedish muppets out.

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5 hours ago, Flags said:

The most impressive thing about this is Norway. When you consider they share a 1600KM/1000Mile land border with Sweden, they have done well to keep those Swedish muppets out.

Check the price of booze. Happy go lucky infectors have no reason to go there and smart people don't travel.

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You can't drop places unless you reincarnate people.

Sweden has been passed by other countries, many undeveloped and highly populated. Sweden can't claim credit for others failings.

Sweden's wave one death numbers are their tombstone and are engraved in stone. You can't fiddle numbers in stone.

Right Jacko so you are now changing the basis of your critique of the "Swedish Experiment" from one where you did compare their approach to other countries to one where you don't.

That fact is the "Swedish Experiment" just like the "Swiss Experiment" is doing better than many other countries who have enforced far greater stringency in terms of lockdowns.  For more than half of this year to date (28 weeks) Sweden has had zero to negative excess mortality (Norway the same).  The excess mortality figure for 2020 is likely to be around the 10% mark i.e. the average mortality for 2020 will have increased from 8.5:1,000 to 9.4:1,000 (i.e. 1 extra person died per 1,000) however that does not account for displaced mortality (individuals dieing weeks or months earlier than expected). 

Of course the picture will be significantly different when you compare across two to five years and when you factor in the predicted increase in mortality due to an ageing population.  In fact the average mortality age will not have changed significantly due to Covid-19.  There are 100,000 people aged over 90 in Sweden and over 97% of them are still alive  (you'll probably find due to the ageing demographic overall that will probably still be 100,000 people aged over 90.

Sweden was once the poster child for "how not to do it" however there are now over 25 other candidates for that spot.  But I guess some of us have to channel our latent angst somewhere.  

excess-mortality-p-scores (2).png

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9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You bullshit better than the Russians who said last week 55,000 now this week admit it's 186,000.

 

IMG_20201230_070640.jpg

Would you just bury the bodies deeper?  The smell wouldn't fill my nostrils.  Jeez, I thought this was 101 in thuggery.

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16 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You bullshit better than the Russians who said last week 55,000 now this week admit it's 186,000.

Their own excess deaths data overwhelmed their bullshit.

IMG_20201230_070640.jpg

How is it bullshit Jacko?  I said 10% for the year your graph says 12% to December 8.  

Just man up and admit that Sweden haven't done all that badly especially when you consider the demographic disadvantages that they have compared to other countries.  Your only solution is to lock everyone up and/or shift all the non-infected to an island!  You have no understanding of the wider implications of such a policy nor have any understanding that once the virus is endemic there is stuff all you can do about it.  Except have politicians and pseudo political health experts make it worse because they need to be seen to be doing something.

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So Jack is berating Sweden for not closing its borders and locking down in this thread while busting the Aust PM’s balls for not throwing the doors open to Australia and opening up the states in the other thread. I am really going to have to lift my trolling game to stay ahead of the Jackster this year. 

Without Ricko’s leg to hump this holiday season he is really struggling.

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Given that this pandemic is not going to be over until end of 2021, early 2022, seems that we are not going to know the extent to which Sweden’s approach worked or did not, until then. But fine to keep arguing...

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56 minutes ago, Frakka said:

"Now the Swedish model has failed, it's time to ask who was pushing it"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/03/swedish-model-failed-covid-19

This piece is a nice adjunct to the article in post #1501 "Caught up in their own bullshit..........".

Meanwhile Gladys is having two bob each way on the crowds at the SCG.

 

 

An Opinion piece with stuff all facts.

image.thumb.png.2561d43a0d802c987e79bbca1f36e1cd.png

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5 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:
6 hours ago, Frakka said:

"Now the Swedish model has failed, it's time to ask who was pushing it"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/03/swedish-model-failed-covid-19

This piece is a nice adjunct to the article in post #1501 "Caught up in their own bullshit..........".

Meanwhile Gladys is having two bob each way on the crowds at the SCG.

 

 

An Opinion piece with stuff all facts

 

Says someone who posts with no explaination 'uncited graphs. :lol:

So lets fill in with some facts about those who you do cite.

YOUR posts have religiously mirrored the 'outliers' and 'fringe dwellers' in the scientific community BOTH in content and timing. Those who oppose lockdowns BUT having NO regard for actual response capacity. 

You dangerous pricks have now been graphed.

EqrjRO9XIAEcHbx.jpeg

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And to drill down on your bullshit about UK health care capacity, Covid only 15% of occupancy and it being all over in late November...blah blah.

On 11/21/2020 at 5:10 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

Hospital Bed Occupancy England - data source NHS daily report.

The peak Covid-19 bed occupancy during the first peak was 18,970 occuring on 12 April.  As of 20 November the current occupancy is 14,236.

Mechanical Ventilator Beds (ICU) peaked 2,881 on 12 April.  As of 20 November 1,241.

image.png.92c6fcc3d6dd3fcec2b110d219cbca14.png

 

Reality 6 weeks later.

Kent Example - Oxygen is running out. - ICU 137% occupancy - nursing has gone from 1:1 to 1:4. 2 Jan - Independent

Eq1iVNpXAAIw_Fc.jpeg

EqwJtUzXEAACbGV.jpeg

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Says someone who posts with no explaination 'uncited graphs. :lol:

So lets fill in with some facts about those who you do cite.

YOUR posts have religiously mirrored the 'outliers' and 'fringe dwellers' in the scientific community BOTH in content and timing. Those who oppose lockdowns BUT having NO regard for actual response capacity. 

You dangerous pricks have now been graphed.

EqrjRO9XIAEcHbx.jpeg

You blue graph is probably taken (that seems to be where it first appeared) from the tweet of @ukiswitheu - an ANTI-Brexiter.  Not exactly an esteemed source of scientific balanced epidemiology research!  This Twitter account is a solid source of MIS-information - anything really to bag Boris.

Image

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

And to drill down on your bullshit about UK health care capacity, Covid only 15% of occupancy and it being all over in late November...blah blah.

 

Reality 6 weeks later.

Kent Example - Oxygen is running out. - ICU 137% occupancy - nursing has gone from 1:1 to 1:4. 2 Jan - Independent

Eq1iVNpXAAIw_Fc.jpeg

EqwJtUzXEAACbGV.jpeg

Eqj6dhHW4AA4IE3-1024x702.jpeg

Get spinning the alarmist narrative Jacko.  What is your actual agenda?  Do you relish the thought of people being pushed into poverty and hunger, businesses being destroyed and jobs lost, children losing a year's education and being disadvantaged for life?

You think you are on the moral high ground and that somehow your narrative is the right one and will save the world but at what cost?  We will watch with interest as your narrative (inconsistent as it is which has been pointed out by LB) changes as the morality of the dominant narrative shifts in the coming months.  It will shift and it will shift rapidly.

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Which brings us to the ancient philosophical question:

'If the earth is indeed as flat as some would have us believe, can there ever be a moral high ground?'

 

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Swedish officials having fun. The latest is the dude responsible for announcements about avoiding foreign travel, goes to the Canary Islands for Christmas with his daughter. Says he judged the trip was necessary! From afar it always seemed that Sweden was a reasonably competently governed country, now not so sure.

I'm all for tossing officials who deem themselves above the guidelines they want the rest of us to follow, and yes that includes Newsom and Pelosi. Latest is Mexican Covid-19 head who took a beach trip while urging Mexicans to stay home, yikes! Some places have a tradition that when a senior official screws up they resign, not so much anymore.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/04/anger-after-swedish-official-breaks-his-own-agency-s-covid-guidelines-by-flying-to-canary-

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BE, you are indeed too stupid to live.

If you have a death wish, please just roll over and be done with it.

But either way, shut the fuck up.

 

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6 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:
On 1/4/2021 at 1:16 PM, Kate short for Bob said:

....

You see the same headlines in the US when the flu comes around.   ...

No you don't

At least, not in real news. I suppose in "Bullshit For Idiots" news, maybe you do, but none of the rest of us watch that news channel

- DSK

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18 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Swedish officials having fun. The latest is the dude responsible for announcements about avoiding foreign travel, goes to the Canary Islands for Christmas with his daughter. Says he judged the trip was necessary! From afar it always seemed that Sweden was a reasonably competently governed country, now not so sure.

I'm all for tossing officials who deem themselves above the guidelines they want the rest of us to follow, and yes that includes Newsom and Pelosi. Latest is Mexican Covid-19 head who took a beach trip while urging Mexicans to stay home, yikes! Some places have a tradition that when a senior official screws up they resign, not so much anymore.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/04/anger-after-swedish-official-breaks-his-own-agency-s-covid-guidelines-by-flying-to-canary-

After 16 tears there, I can confirm that it is far from it.

 

They are masters of propaganda which is why Sweden has such a good reputation.

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

and your point is?

Something along the lines of 'bla no excess mortality bla everything right bla doesn't make a difference if you sleep away or suffocate for three weeks bla please don't look too exactly at my sources bla'.

Official death statistics for Sweden can be found here , not on Statista.

Numbera for 2019 are around 85 thousand, 2018 around 89 thousand.

The numbers for 2020 are currently around 92 thousand and they are, looking at the table, far from complete.

20210108_065134.thumb.jpg.30575ebe52da127bcf914951e54451ed.jpg

I put my noisecancelling headphones on again. 

The whole topic has become so pointless.

Ommmmmmmmm.

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8 minutes ago, Matagi said:

Official death statistics for Sweden can be found here , not on Statista.

Statista uses the same data source hence the totals being the same.

The 2019 was a lower mortality year than average which would have led to displaced mortality.

Have you checked the latest data for Covid-19 mortality?  Surprisingly given their considerably less stringent NPI pandemic management strategy they are doing much better than many European countries that had more stringent measures.

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ICant Hear You Speak Louder GIF - ICantHearYou SpeakLouder SayThatAgain -  Discover & Share GIFs

For all others:

official source is 92,494 AND COUNTING, Statista is 91,773

In my book: not the same.

Tell him I said to fuck off  go and displace some mortality. 

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12 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

image.png.1d80f533abba97ec359628281956194f.png

What a great chart.  Sweden mortality completely unaffected by Covid.
How much more proof does anyone want?
 

But wait!  Data is only allowed when it supports the state and centralized control....

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If that's the chart BE / Westcoast thinks is 'great', he probably gets constantly lost during his global field trips.

Hate to quote myself. 

10 hours ago, Matagi said:

Something along the lines of 'bla no excess mortality bla everything right bla doesn't make a difference if you sleep away or suffocate for three weeks bla please don't look too exactly at my sources bla'.

Official death statistics for Sweden can be found here , not on Statista.

Numbera for 2019 are around 85 thousand, 2018 around 89 thousand.

The numbers for 2020 are currently around 92 thousand and they are, looking at the table, far from complete.

20210108_065134.thumb.jpg.30575ebe52da127bcf914951e54451ed.jpg

I put my noisecancelling headphones on again. 

The whole topic has become so pointless.

Ommmmmmmmm.

Madeira still the place to be, you caricature of a Mastermind?

Or have you spread to South America yet as per your cunning plans, Baldrick?

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Sweden slowly catching on to the fact that there is a virus spreading by aerosols that can kill you. Finally passed a law that allows new restrictions. Might have been a good idea about a year ago!

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12 hours ago, Matagi said:

For all others:

 official source is 92,494 AND COUNTING, Statista is 91,773

 In my book: not the same.

Are you deliberately being a moron?  For a start the Statista only shows data up to 18 December and you are comparing with incomplete not yet confirmed data past that date!  So you are deliberately misinforming.  Statista quite clearly state on the graph - data up to the 18 DECEMBER for the year 2020.  Yet you add up to the 31st December.

A difference of 13 days!  Of course they are different!!!!!  To quote from the spreadsheet that you so obligingly provided:

Statistics Sweden’s preliminary statistics on deaths are produced to provide rapid access to developments during the coronavirus outbreak, and to enable comparison with previous years. The statistics are reported on ordinary business days and should be regarded as raw data. These statistics are updated as new data is made available, as there is a lag in reporting, in particular for the days closest to publication.  Statistics from two weeks ago are not expected to change substantially. Previous years’ statistics are based on Statistics Sweden’s final observation register. Only persons whose date of death is known are included in the above calculations.

Now even if the current trend continues in Covid-19 mortality the final total will be approximately 93,500.  The last 10 year average has been OFFICIALLY 90,655.  So for the 2020 year there has been an increase of 2,845 (est.).  Or 3.1%.  Of the people that have died in Sweden in 2020 from the official figures to date 9,400 have died with Covid-19 i.e. 11% of the total.  Yet there is just a 3% increase in overall mortality.  The increase is predominately in the 80+ age group i.e. those above the average mortality age.  2,601 people were over the age of 90!

Now clearly Covid-19 is a serious disease but looking at those numbers is the "Swedish Experiment" really as bad as some would like to portray?   

 

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15 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Sweden slowly catching on to the fact that there is a virus spreading by aerosols that can kill you. Finally passed a law that allows new restrictions. Might have been a good idea about a year ago!

Your source?  Even so they MAY have passed a law (evidence?) but has it been implemented?

Here are the current regulations from the Public Health Agency of Sweden:  https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/regulations-and-general-guidelines/

The only reference to masks is that the Government advice is that "they SHOULD be worn on public transport during peak travel times."

 

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4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

What a great chart.  Sweden mortality completely unaffected by Covid.
How much more proof does anyone want?
 

But wait!  Data is only allowed when it supports the state and centralized control....

No that isn't quite correct.  Yes there has been a Covid-19 impact mainly in people over the age of 80 (6,000 out of the total of 9,400) and largely in care homes.

However for an apparently "bad" laissez faire approach to pandemic management Sweden hasn't done as badly as some countries.  They are experiencing their seasonal respiratory illness peak now but there are signs that they are past this.  However you can't say that with certainty yet.  

But I guess the bad bad Sweden experiment narrative will continue.

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19 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Are you deliberately being a moron? 

[bla]

The last 10 year average has been OFFICIALLY 90,655.  So for the 2020 year there has been an increase of 2,845 (est.).  Or 3.1%.  Of the people that have died in Sweden in 2020 from the official figures to date 9,400 have died with Covid-19 i.e. 11% of the total.  Yet there is just a 3% increase in overall mortality.  The increase is predominately in the 80+ age group i.e. those above the average mortality age.  2,601 people were over the age of 90!

Now clearly Covid-19 is a serious disease but looking at those numbers is the "Swedish Experiment" really as bad as some would like to portray?   

 

You are right. I am so sorry. What a stupid mistake. D'oh.

I miscalculated. It was early.

The actual official number per the table is not 92,000.

 

IT IS ALREADY 95,022. AND THAT IS STILL THE INCOMPLETE NUMBER.

Adjusting for the missing / incomplete figures at a rate of 8.8 per cent above average for each day from Christmas on (and that is a very fair assessment) gives us 

ANOTHER ca. 2,000 coffins.

SUM: 97,022 give or take, who cares (I know you don't)

That will amount to 7 per cent above the average as given to you.

19 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Yet there is just a 3% increase in overall mortality. 

Proven wrong. Using your OWN NUMBERS. 

19 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The increase is predominately in the 80+ age group i.e. those above the average mortality age.  2,601 people were over the age of 90!

Cynical lowlife, that's what you are. These people suffocate to death at the end of a long life. Most of them very lonely.

A working society needs to be judged by how it treats its helpless.

But you would surely get them on an icefloe and kick it off.

I have worthier fish to fry than this idiotic topic or a comic sans brain like you. 

Where's that knob again...

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1 hour ago, Matagi said:

 IT IS ALREADY 95,022. AND THAT IS STILL THE INCOMPLETE NUMBER.

 Adjusting for the missing / incomplete figures at a rate of 8.8 per cent above average for each day from Christmas on (and that is a very fair assessment) gives us 



Ok so we were both wrong!  There you go we are both Adults admitting we made a mistake!

1 hour ago, Matagi said:

 SUM: 97,022 give or take, who cares (I know you don't)

Really how do you know that I care or don't care?  In fact I do care not only about the dead but about the living.  The latter you seem to have less of a fixation about.  

1 hour ago, Matagi said:

Cynical lowlife, that's what you are. These people suffocate to death at the end of a long life. Most of them very lonely.

Don't you realise that people die?  95,000 people have died in Sweden this year!  On average 90,000 people die EVERY YEAR in Sweden.  Sadly some die horrible deaths - some die peacefully.  But people die - if you don't realise it yet we are NOT immortal.

1 hour ago, Matagi said:

 A working society needs to be judged by how it treats its helpless.

A working society has also has to make sure that through its Government's actions it doesn't create more inequality and thus more "helpless."  You sit here and criticise Sweden yet offer no via alternative to their pandemic management strategy other than lock everyone down - bring society to a halt.  You talk about people dying lonely - what do you think locking people down does if not make them lonely?

Sweden didn't ask for Covid-19.  The World didn't ask for Covid-19.   It happened.  The difference between Sweden and other countries is they allowed much of society to continue to function accepting the fact, and it is a fact, that there would be Covid-19 mortality.  They attempted to minimise that mortality and by the looks of it have done quite well.  They admit they have made mistakes.

But their children have still continued to go to school and be educated.  They haven't damaged their children's mental health and future to the extent that some countries have.  The supply chains that allow ALL people to work, feed themselves and live have continued to operate.  They haven't created more inequality by restricting those that live week to week from earning a wage.  I DO CARE!  I CARE ABOUT THE CHILDREN AND THE LESS PRIVILEGED!  You don't seem to.

Is that because you can afford to isolate and protect yourself while spending large amounts of time online criticising Government actions particularly Sweden's?  Do you have children that attend school?  Do you have to work to provide for them?  Or are you in a position of relative privilege and security that affords you the luxury of pilloring everyone that disagrees with you?

Matagi at the end of the day if I was offered the choice between my 14 year daughter, who is not vulnerable to Covid-19, being able to continue her schooling and her social development at a very defining point in her life or the loss of a year at the end of my life I would gladly and unreservedly choose the latter.  I applaud Sweden for being mature and staunch enough to make that judgement!

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It's  2021, so well past Christmas.

Maybe, when the @Editor is done staring at the new pair of sailing gloves the bullshitters' traffic has bought for him he can start sanitising some of these threads and purge some of the shitposters. They just don't do anybody any good. Quite the contrary, they hurt the SA platform.

Shit flinging on sailing matters is a different thing altogether. Hell, have them buy him a Wally, with 0.0035 cents for each page impression!

But the little extra ad revenues generated from bullshitting on health issues is really not worth it.

 

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1 hour ago, Grog said:

Maybe, when the @Editor is done staring at the new pair of sailing gloves the bullshitters' traffic has bought for him he can start sanitising some of these threads and purge some of the shitposters. They just don't do anybody any good. Quite the contrary, they hurt the SA platform.

This cunt has already been given a holiday and I'm pretty sure is also a sock of one punted earllier.

The killer is he does this from the comfort of NZ.

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This is how official DAILY mortality statistics work in pictures using the UK as an example. Note: This EXCLUDES counting by excess deaths.

1,325 deaths yesterday the LARGEST single day since the pandemic began. The previous record of 1,224 was on 21 April 2020. 

Note: UK count is generated by a Death Certificate WITH Covid COD in top line and WITH a Covid positive test no more than 28 days old. 

ErOUQrUXEAAOEUS.png

IMG_20210109_141126.jpg

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  • 4 weeks later...

On the Swedish Governments official Covid-19 website they provide the antibody testing data.  The level has risen from 10% in August to over 40% in week 2 of 2021 for all of Sweden.  They report the statistics on a regional basis and Stockholm has reached 45% rising from 11% over the same period.  The accuracy of the data is matched by other testing and research done when comparing the time periods with the same time periods. 

Add to this figure the fact that the level of measurable antibodies decline over time however immunity still remains due to other cell activity and memory.  So one can extrapolate that the level of immunity is significantly higher than these figures.  I've collected all the data and am in the process of mapping against daily cases.  From what I've seen so far the drop in cases matches previous predictions by some scientists on when the antibody prevalence reached a certain level.  Which is in keeping with herd immunity.image.png.ccd9ab39e0729877f285ffe591847bb2.png

image.png.6c9ebd3599c7b1c6ad2b53365e65c3ae.png

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2 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

On the Swedish Governments official Covid-19 website they provide the antibody testing data.  The level has risen from 10% in August to over 40% in week 2 of 2021 for all of Sweden....

...Which is in keeping with herd immunity.

"antibody...level has risen from 10% in August to over 40% in week 2 of 2021... Which is in keeping with herd immunity".

The same Swedish Government source will tell you that;

- Testing in Sweden jumped FIVE FOLD from around 50k per week in August to over 250k per week by years end.

- ONLY the regions conduct testing, not the state.

- ONLY time antigen tests are taken is either with symptoms/often post symptoms OR subject to contact tracing request and PCR is the ONLY only 'large scale' testing. 

So for antibody testing concentrated like that and increased in number, it is no bloody wonder "the level has risen from 10% in August to over 40% in week 2 of 2021 for all of Sweden"

It is no bloody wonder you omitted revealing that.

Why hasn't anyone of authority spoken of your 'herd immunity' revelation?

You are unbelievable, that is why your posts are all unbelievable. 

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So for antibody testing concentrated like that and increased in number, it is no bloody wonder "the level has risen from 10% in August to over 40% in week 2 of 2021 for all of Sweden"

 It is no bloody wonder you omitted revealing that.

 Why hasn't anyone of authority spoken of your 'herd immunity' revelation?

 

Cherry picking again Wacko.  Or should that be Covid-19 gloom picking?  Sad you are so fixated on the negative.

Of course you don't point out that the antibody testing criteria hasn't changed therefore as an indicator of herd immunity particularly the relative increase it is a good indicator.  You also overlook human nature where there is an incentive to get tested for anti-bodies. If you test positive then you are effectively vaccinated.

You also ignore the fact that the figures are corroborated by other research.  Indeed the figures align very accurately.

Nor do you point out that you and a number of others were quick to use these figures and the other research to support your anti-narrative about Herd Immunity when the numbers were low.  Now that they are rising and there is an obvious correlation with the drop in cases the same sources of data are no longer of any use to YOUR narrative.  Note the drop in cases is occurring even with the presence of the "mutant variants".

If we take the WHO and CDC estimates that a minimum of 10x the number of confirmed cases is the actual number of infections then 5.8 million of the population of Sweden has had Covid-19 i.e. 50%.  So the 40% recorded in the tests, regardless of any sampling bias, is very indicative of the level of immunity albeit and underestimate.  

The other good news from this data is that the actual overall Ris at the lower range of the estimates therefore the level of vaccination won't have to reach high numbers make an impact.

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Stop it. I'm being your friend here. Stop it.

There is no prevalence in the 40% region. The numbers are skewed since you get a test in Sweden when there is good evidence / suspicion that you should get one. 

If there was any logic to this theory, 22 countries, all of which have higher death rates per million than Sweden (and many of which comparable regarding their health system) would be way ahead in terms of immunity. By that theory, for example, Belgium would have reached the same level as Sweden as early as mid-November. They certainly did not.

Bild13.jpg.png.96dbb2dbc76371adcaf52ee9f8481264.png

No, that's a fantasy. A good one, but a fantasy. Put it to rest.

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44 minutes ago, Matagi said:

If there was any logic to this theory, 22 countries, all of which have higher death rates per million than Sweden (and many of which comparable regarding their health system) would be way ahead in terms of immunity. By that theory, for example, Belgium would have reached the same level as Sweden as early as mid-November. They certainly did not

What has comparing a country's mortality rate got to do with Case rates and Herd Immunity?

Mortality rates vary by country for a number of reasons.  For example the USA has an obesity and diabetes epidemic - two significant comorbidities!  So if you want to compare Mortality Rates between countries you need to account for population health (prevalence of pre-existing comorbidities), age distribution, poverty levels etc.  

Interesting that you mention Belgium - they have been regularly testing blood donors for antibodies. As at the end of November 26% of those in tested from Brussels had antibodies.  Coincidentally this correlates nearly exactly with the Swedish data.

image.png.eab1404d7d975aa1b7f3f77b4db1edab.png

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Cherry picking again Wacko.  Or should that be Covid-19 gloom picking?  Sad you are so fixated on the negative.

Of course you don't point out that the antibody testing criteria hasn't changed therefore as an indicator of herd immunity particularly the relative increase it is a good indicator

"Of course you don't point out that the antibody testing criteria hasn't changed"

Well actually the onus is on YOU to indicate serology testing criteria in Sweden HASN'T changed. Start date and serology access not changing after that is all you need to provide.

You HAVEN'T done that. WHY??

4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You also overlook human nature where there is an incentive to get tested for anti-bodies. If you test positive then you are effectively vaccinated.

YOU OVERLOOK that Swedish Health advise is NOT to take the antibody tests as an individual if you are NOT referred for one because there's a risk of false positives and advise individuals against taking the tests with the aim of informing personal decisions about safety and risk-level. 

The "incentive to get tested for anti-bodies" is also curtailed by the COST as testing entities charge in excess of USD$100 and ask people to be completely FREE of symptoms BEFORE taking the test in order to get an accurate result.

HARDLY a lot of incentive there. The spread and intensity of serology testing already covered in my post you replied to here, which you DON'T challenge.

4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You also ignore the fact that the figures are corroborated by other research.  Indeed the figures align very accurately.

I haven't ignored that fact.

It is you who have ignored CITING that; "figures are corroborated  by other research.  Indeed the figures align very accurately"

16 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Why hasn't anyone of authority spoken of your 'herd immunity' revelation?

As for this.

4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Nor do you point out that you and a number of others were quick to use these figures and the other research to support your anti-narrative about Herd Immunity when the numbers were lowNow that they are rising and there is an obvious correlation with the drop in cases the same sources of data are no longer of any use to YOUR narrative.  Note the drop in cases is occurring even with the presence of the "mutant variants". 

I and others have only cited Swedish Health saying their antibody numbers were low AND THEM saying too LOW for herd immunity.

I have yet to see Swedish Health come out and say they have changed their mind and are now confident herd immunity is close or had been reached.

If Swedish Health were saying that you would have cited that. YOU HAVEN'T.

And

4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The other good news from this data is that the actual overall Ris at the lower range of the estimates 

Again NO cite.

As I said.

16 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are unbelievable, that is why your posts are all unbelievable. 

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Why do I need to "cite" when the data speaks for itself?  Or is analysing data beyond you?

39 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I have yet to see Swedish Health come out and say they have changed their mind and are now confident herd immunity is close or had been reached.

 If Swedish Health were saying that you would have cited that. YOU HAVEN'T.

 

They won't say that because Herd Immunity hasn't been their strategy.  Keep up Jacko.  They have always stated that the strategy was to keep infection to a level that enable their health systems to cope and that Herd Immunity was an outcome of that NOT the target.

However back to your "unbelievable" lack of intelligence and ability to analyse the data.  It is clearly obvious that case numbers are dropping, antibody levels in the community are very high no matter which way you measure it and that that data points to the effect of Herd Immunity being attained!

43 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is you who have ignored CITING that; "figures are corroborated  by other research.  Indeed the figures align very accurately"

17 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Refer back to some of your earlier posts on this Topic where you and others were quick to point out that the antibody levels were low and that the "Swedish Experiment" was a disaster.  The fact is that the antibody level data that I have recently referenced correlates exactly with those levels that you earlier quoted at the same time!  

As I have said many many times as time progresses Sweden's pandemic management strategy, which conformed to decades of research and accepted strategy (WHO and CDC) will prove to be the one that has had the least impact over time.  Hell their primary school children haven't lost a year of education for a start unlike the UK!

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On 1/5/2021 at 5:35 AM, TheDragon said:

Swedish officials having fun. The latest is the dude responsible for announcements about avoiding foreign travel, goes to the Canary Islands for Christmas with his daughter. Says he judged the trip was necessary! From afar it always seemed that Sweden was a reasonably competently governed country, now not so sure.

I'm all for tossing officials who deem themselves above the guidelines they want the rest of us to follow, and yes that includes Newsom and Pelosi. Latest is Mexican Covid-19 head who took a beach trip while urging Mexicans to stay home, yikes! Some places have a tradition that when a senior official screws up they resign, not so much anymore.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/04/anger-after-swedish-official-breaks-his-own-agency-s-covid-guidelines-by-flying-to-canary-

We have had this issue in Canada with politicians and Covid Task Force officials having to resign after traveling despite the travel bans. It occurs to me that these people know the facts surrounding the risks and decided to take the risks related to traveling themselves and for their families. If they based their decisions on what we get in the media they would have been irrational to take a step outside their doors! 

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Let's get back to the science.  Why ix the "Swedish Experiment" doing better than those that have chosen a more Draconian approach and the pre-Covid-19 agreed approach?

Yes, lets get back to the science... you've yet to show any science to prove that "The Swedish Experiment" is doing better than, well, anything. But feel free to post some more unrelated graphics, and make unsubstantiated claims and inferences.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/4/2021 at 5:27 PM, Weyalan said:

Yes, lets get back to the science... you've yet to show any science to prove that "The Swedish Experiment" is doing better than, well, anything. But feel free to post some more unrelated graphics, and make unsubstantiated claims and inferences.

SAGE just released a report that 40% of the first wave of infections happened in hospital.

UK GDP figures for 2020 - worst GDP drop since the Great Frost of 1709.  Even the Great Depression didn't get close.  -9.9% contraction.

Sweden GDP figures for 2020 - a -2.8% contraction.  WOW 350% better!  That is going to make a huge difference in years to come in terms of quality of life and the economic well being of Swedish citizens.

Watch this space more GOOD science is coming.  Interesting how Sweden seems to have dropped out of the media hysteria......  I wonder why that is?

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12 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

SAGE just released a report that 40% of the first wave of infections happened in hospital.

"..40% of the first wave of infections happened in hospital."

What about the second wave?

56,000 dead SINCE JUST 8 December from a total of 116,000.

40% or 22,000 caught it in hospital too?

12 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Watch this space more GOOD science is coming. 

Is the current science in a language you can't read?

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On 2/14/2021 at 2:31 AM, jack_sparrow said:

56,000 dead SINCE JUST 8 December from a total of 116,000

What? WTF is this number and where did you get it? 

I have been following this thread since it started as Sweden's strategy seemed to be the best one I could see in a holistic sense. I understand that the conclusions will be a long time coming but it is very interesting to follow the discussions until then. I am in an area which is in its second significant lockdown causing some profound damages in other sectors of life than pure physical health so contrasting the numbers between us and Sweden in the end will be interesting. For sure the quick creation of vaccines will tilt the balance in favour of the lockdown strategy. 

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On 2/14/2021 at 5:31 PM, jack_sparrow said:
On 2/14/2021 at 4:56 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

SAGE just released a report that 40% of the first wave of infections happened in hospital.

"..40% of the first wave of infections happened in hospital."

What about the second wave?

56,000 dead SINCE JUST 8 December from a total of 116,000.

40% or 22,000 caught it in hospital too?

1 hour ago, danstanford said:

What? WTF is this number and where did you get it? 

 

The bullshitter's post about SAGE or the 'Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies' who advise the UK Government....well they used to until their advise was too evidence based for the Govt to stomach in last quarter of last year. That worked out well. 

That 56,000 dead since 8 December (vaccination rollout start date) is for the UK.

 It is now 57,000 

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

That 56,000 dead since 8 December (vaccination rollout start date) is for the UK.

 It is now 57,000 

Thanks, I now understand that it is now 57000 deaths from Covid in the UK since December 8th, correct? What is the 116,000 number, cases? Your statement implies a 50% death rate, surely that cannot be true. Is it some other number like total deaths? 

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14 minutes ago, danstanford said:

What is the 116,000 number, cases?.......Is it some other number like total deaths? .

Yes total dead to date....or was. Now 117,000.

That is lowest gross figure as it is deaths with positive test AND death occurs in less than 28 days of test.Government made the change mid last year and applied retrospectively to lower the death toll by around 10%. With Covid on certificate as it used to be the gross total is higher. The publish both but only use the lower for daily reporting. 

 

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So is your point that 50% of the deaths have occurred in the last 2.5 months?

My reading had indicated that severe cases and death rates had been declining over time as a percentage of total cases due to a variety of factors. Your data would indicate either this is absolutely dead wrong or that the number of cases have been climbing strongly in the last few months. 

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4 hours ago, danstanford said:

So is your point that 50% of the deaths have occurred in the last 2.5 months?

My point was only to challenge the bullshitters assertion that 40% of Covid cases was still being caught within hospital situations by his interpolation that what occured in spring 1st wave (when no PPE etc) must hold true now for winter.

The fact that 50% in the last 2+ months your observation, an obvious one and outcome of UK's management of this epidemic.

4 hours ago, danstanford said:

My reading had indicated that severe cases and death rates had been declining over time as a percentage of total cases due to a variety of factors.

That accords with lots of facts from better treatment to greater lower age groups ending up in hospital, but not leaving in a body bag.

4 hours ago, danstanford said:

Your data would indicate either this is absolutely dead wrong or that the number of cases have been climbing strongly in the last few months. 

In UK all Spring 1st wave daily and cumulative records have been broken in winter 2nd wave. Daily cases peaked on 8 January (coincidentally), daily deaths just recently. 

UK is not representative of many things. That is why they rank World #1 deaths per capita (measured by 'excess deaths').

The only thing the UK can be greatfull for is its health system while it crashed, didn't explode. There were less consequential deaths than in Spring. Also while Winter interventions were bungled, those that normally die during winter flu season didn't die, thanks to those interventions for combatting an airborne disease.

This drove their deaths into negative, measured by 'excess deaths'. I mention that because the bullshitter has claimed winter flu season is behind the 50% of total deaths in the last 2+ months, not bad management or the existence there of the more infectious UK mutant variant.

I posted this chart and he then shut the fuck up.

image.thumb.png.e2f0ecf4596c34d954d2230cf4085b75.png

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

there of the more infectious UK mutant variant

Which UK health just recently calc is around 14% (1.4 persons in 10 close contact persons) probability of transmission compared to 11% (1.1 in 10) of the normal variant or around 30% more.

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21 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Which UK health just recently calc is around 14% (1.4 persons in 10 close contact persons) probability of transmission compared to 11% (1.1 in 10) of the normal variant or around 30% more.

Cite a source.

NERTAG "announced" this before they had any data months ago!!!!!

It's BS!  What else can the UK Government do but pull more and more hysterical and alarmist big sticks out of the hat to either 1). keep the populous under "control: or 2). explain away their own policy failures.

Explain this - why does the UK have more cases of the "Brazilian dangerous variant" than Brazil?  Hint:  It isn't to do with genomic testing.

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37 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Explain this - why does the UK have more cases of the "Brazilian dangerous variant" than Brazil?  Hint:  It isn't to do with genomic testing

why does the UK have more cases of the "Brazilian dangerous variant" than Brazil? 

Cite??

Why Brazil variant in UK?

Flights from Brazil continued until 15 January.

(Brazil flights from UK on 25 December, concerned over UK variant).

Quarantine of persons entering UK from elsewhere who have been to Brazil, commenced yesterday. (Failure to disclose up to 10 years jail).

images - 2021-02-16T073336.952.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Flights from Brazil continued until 15 January.

 (Brazil flights from UK on 25 December, concerned over UK variant).

 Quarantine of persons entering UK from elsewhere who have been to Brazil, commenced yesterday. (Failure to disclose up to 10 years jail

Which is pointless if you already have the variant circulating and supposedly "worse" ones!

LOL stopping the flights from Brazil on 15 January coincided with the daily peak of infections in Brazil!!!  So much for it being more infectious!

Brazil has three times the UK population but only two times the number of cases!!!

Note:  the infection curve for Brazil is following the standard infection curve for tropical/sub-tropical countries.