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The Swedish Experiment


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On 11/8/2020 at 7:06 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

You may be making the same error that a lot people make and that is thinking that herd immunity = zero cases.  It doesn't.  There will still be cases but compared to the first outbreak the rate of spread will lower and slower.  What herd immunity does is lower the R0 rate i.e. the rate of infection of a virus WITHOUT intervention.  Initially this was estimated to be 3 but now the actual rate of infection seems to be below 1.5 (a recent anti-body study suggests 1.16 however in my opinion that study is seriously flawed).  Of course it is difficult to ascertain what proportion of that reduction is caused by herd immunity and/or non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI's).  Some will say it is all due to the NPI's however there is research to show that it is probably a factor of both.

Even then herd immunity is reached there is still the possibility that there will be outbreaks however the magnitude of those outbreaks and their longevity will substantially reduced.  How much and how quickly will be determined by the vulnerability of the sub-set within the population.  

The next thing to consider is what is the herd immunity threshold.  The more infectious the virus the higher the threshold.  Although we may perceive Covid-19 to be extremely infectious when compared to other viruses in circulation it isn't.  Estimates vary but currently research seems to be settling on a figure of 60%.  However many factors are involved and some studies suggest it might be as low as 40% but population dependent.  It would be fair to say though that there is a consensus that Covid-19 is less infectious than some influenza strains, more infectious than other influenza strains but not as infectious as measles or polio.

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Getting back to your question about NYC.  What we are seeing globally in this current surge in infection is that it is occurring at far greater rates in some areas that didn't have significant infections earlier in the year.  BUT case numbers are misleading primarily because the amount of testing has increased substantially since April.  The next two graphs show why this is misleading.

In April 10,000 people at the peak were tested in one day.  The % positive was 70%.  So 7,000 cases in one day.  In November 40,000 tested with a % positive of 2% so 800 cases in a day.  So the case peak in April is way understated and Fatality Rates are overstated.   In my opinion the reduction in cases cannot be solely due to NPI's.  YES they have helped immensely and occurred too late to suppress the pandemic in NYC.  But is there some form of herd immunity occurring?  I would say yes there is.  The last graphs shows anti-body testing and the percent of positives is about 21%.  Anti-body tests only give an indication of the level of immunity in a population.  They have a very low false positive rate i.e. if a positive result is obtained it is highly unlikely to be inaccurate.  However they underestimate the number of positives (false negatives) because they cannot detect very low levels of anti-bodies.  Also in terms of immunity, anti-bodies are only one measure.  T-cells are another however they are more expensive and difficult to test for.

Regular anti-body testing in NYS is showing a positivity of 22%.  Even assuming that that positivity is underestimated it would tend to suggest that the herd immunity threshold is lower than 60% and that the actual R0 is now a lot lot closer to 1 than 3.  If they weren't then you would be seeing a far greater rise in case numbers than currently being seen.  Or a higher percentage of the population has already been infected.  I would say that more people have been infected than 22% and the threshold is less than 60%.  The only other explanation is that NPI's are doing it all.  I believe it is most likely both.  

The good news is if the Herd Immunity threshold is much lower than initial estimates then a vaccine won't need to be as nearly as effective (40-50%) to knock this virus out of the ball park.

NOTE:  this post is only opinion.  It is not intended to promote anything.

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On 2/2/2021 at 2:40 PM, Kate short for Bob said:

On the Swedish Governments official Covid-19 website they provide the antibody testing data.  The level has risen from 10% in August to over 40% in week 2 of 2021 for all of Sweden.  They report the statistics on a regional basis and Stockholm has reached 45% rising from 11% over the same period.  The accuracy of the data is matched by other testing and research done when comparing the time periods with the same time periods. 

Add to this figure the fact that the level of measurable antibodies decline over time however immunity still remains due to other cell activity and memory.  So one can extrapolate that the level of immunity is significantly higher than these figures.  I've collected all the data and am in the process of mapping against daily cases.  From what I've seen so far the drop in cases matches previous predictions by some scientists on when the antibody prevalence reached a certain level.  Which is in keeping with herd immunity.image.png.ccd9ab39e0729877f285ffe591847bb2.png

image.png.6c9ebd3599c7b1c6ad2b53365e65c3ae.png

 

KSFB you have suddenly gone very quiet???

How are these HERD IMMUNITY thoughts of yours working out???

These charts recently posted up thread seem to tell a different story??

 

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This is how stupid you sound: I've never had a car crash, so we should get rid of safety regulations and traffic laws.

Im hazarding a guess that you have never had to walk into the waiting room and tell a husband, son daughter father that their wife mother daughter has passed. Because today in the USA 512 doctors or n

Everyone in this thread is probably in a nursing home. They sound like Joe Biden trying to form a cognitive sentence.    "Uh, but, cases only, g.g.g.g.go down with lock-down." 'If you don't w

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If someone had said to me five years ago, that I would experience technofacism personally in my lifetime…. Well, it’s been a tricky pill to swallow.

One man’s pandemic, is another’s vector to reshape society.

I’ve never been particularly into clubs in truth, and as to this covidian cult?

No thanks.

https://consentfactory.org/
 

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13 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

If someone had said to me five years ago, that I would experience technofacism personally in my lifetime…. Well, it’s been a tricky pill to swallow.

One man’s pandemic, is another’s vector to reshape society.

I’ve never been particularly into clubs in truth, and as to this covidian cult?

No thanks.

https://consentfactory.org/
 

Good Grief! I knew there were wack jobs on the internet, but that is amazing. Just how many tin hats must one wear to buy into any of that crap?

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7 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Good Grief! I knew there were wack jobs on the internet, but that is amazing. Just how many tin hats must one wear to buy into any of that crap?

You tell us.

 

You locked down the world for a disease with a 99.8% survival rate.

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The problem is multiple mask wearing - as advocated by Dr. Fauci – it starves the brain of oxygen, which inevitable leads to the desired conclusion.

Onward to the cliff.
 

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On 3/30/2021 at 6:52 AM, Marinatrix447 said:

If someone had said to me five years ago, that I would experience technofacism personally in my lifetime…. Well, it’s been a tricky pill to swallow.

One man’s pandemic, is another’s vector to reshape society.

I’ve never been particularly into clubs in truth, and as to this covidian cult?

No thanks.

https://consentfactory.org/
 

Fucking consent factory?

Shill factory.

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3 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

The problem is multiple mask wearing - as advocated by Dr. Fauci – it starves the brain of oxygen, which inevitable leads to the desired conclusion.

Onward to the cliff.
 

bwhahahaha.

too funny.

 

I love how the media grabbed onto it.

"One mask doesn't work, but TWO masks will work.  And THREE masks works 99% of the time!"

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JFC.

Compared to this puddle of blatant bullshit PA has evolved into a sanctuary of sanity and reason.

 

That said, I can't be bothered to be involved here anymore.

The Corona Forum has already been pushed out on the plank, maybe it's time to either clean it up or kick it overboard. And the blatant bullshitters and socks with it. Unless of course the Ed has developed symathies for the Qs and is fishing for more BS traffic.

Whatever.

 

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11 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

The problem is multiple mask wearing - as advocated by Dr. Fauci – it starves the brain of oxygen, which inevitable leads to the desired conclusion.

Onward to the cliff.
 

I think I see the problem.... you're supposed to take the mask out of the plastic wrap BEFORE you plaster it over your nose & mouth

- DSK

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For those that have been paying attention, you may have heard this last month or so the phrase ZERO Covid being bandied about in the MSM.

It probably pays not to be too oxygen deprived to figure out the diagram below, which dovetails neatly into the ZERO bigger picture agenda.

1746785329_PagesfromREP_Absolute_Zero_V3_20200505.thumb.jpg.015091fd893ffa26c9f8cd3406701d0c.jpg


Read of the week for me is from a Dr/GP UK NHS employed though I suspect he’s in his 60s, a snippet below:

What happened to Keep Calm & Carry On? 

One must hope one day political convenience will bow to reality rather than try make reality bow to it. There is a limit for psychological techniques to impose themselves on reality. It was reached many months ago. 

The mainstream Covid-19 delusion represents the final failure in our civilisations. Without an improvement in the integrity and intelligence of our leaders, the media and an end to their polarising mass-messaging there is no escape. Their conduct has led us to a year of deliberate self-harm and to the point of collective suicide.

https://off-guardian.org/2021/04/01/bipolar-corona-politics-positive/

The only additional insight IMO to voice is this isn’t about public health and never has been. It is about societal change - pitched on for the ‘greater good’.

Build Back Better… though I personally was happy with my life ‘old normal’

No need to bulldozer it all away on my behalf, and finally if you did hold any airline shares in your portfolio, hopefully you ditched those back in 2018.

As you were…
 

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6 minutes ago, Marinatrix447 said:

Read of the week for me is from a Dr/GP UK NHS employed though I suspect he’s in his 60s, a snippet below:

Might not do anything but I just press the Report button for your Disinformation campaign.

People like you are the problem.

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16 hours ago, Grog said:

That said, I can't be bothered to be involved here anymore.

The Corona Forum has already been pushed out on the plank, maybe it's time to either clean it up or kick it overboard. And the blatant bullshitters and socks with it. Unless of course the Ed has developed symathies for the Qs and is fishing for more BS traffic.

 

You're close Grog.  It's just that reality is starting to win out from your hysterical sensationalist view point.

Your panicked, disaster porn narrative, is unraveling.

- No correlation with masks and cases rises/falling.
- No correlation with lockdown doing anything.
- Sweden having very limited excess mortality in all of 2020 - lower than mainland Europe.
 

Normal people are starting to see your side was totally fucking wrong.
And they are very, very angry.

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3 hours ago, Randro said:

Might not do anything but I just press the Report button for your Disinformation campaign.

People like you are the problem.

Well Retardro dear chap…. Seems cancel culture no longer holds - just put me on ignore - it will save you being triggered again.

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4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:
20 hours ago, Grog said:
...

 

... reality...

....

Normal people are starting to see your side was totally fucking wrong.
...

Given what you say about "reality"

It's easy to guess what you think is "normal"

- DSK

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18 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

Well Retardro dear chap…. Seems cancel culture no longer holds - just put me on ignore - it will save you being triggered again.

No, I'll t keep reporting you.  COVID denial cunt.

Even Fuckbook deletes that shit now.

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On 4/1/2021 at 5:51 PM, Steam Flyer said:

Given what you say about "reality"

It's easy to guess what you think is "normal"

- DSK

Well said, and much more restrained than what I would have answered.

I hope he didn't dislocate any limbs while fumbling with that thesaurus.

 

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4 hours ago, Ncik said:

Thanks for confirming you're one of THOSE people.

You do realize money is a significant source of influence, right?

Like, in the entire world?  People do a lot of things for money.

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Sweden has dropped to #28 for deaths / 1million

Curiously: #29 is Israel, which obviously did a super hard lockdown, for, what, 4 months?  
 

--
Does this seem strange to anyone?

A country with no lockdown, does the same as one with a crippling one?
That's weird no?

 

Worthy of some investigation or questioning?

 

592728423_ScreenShot2021-04-21at4_48_12AM.thumb.png.ea2c2569805034ae9abd6b7c9bc8b01b.png

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3 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Sweden has dropped to #28 for deaths / 1million

Curiously: #29 is Israel, which obviously did a super hard lockdown, for, what, 4 months?  
 

--
Does this seem strange to anyone?

A country with no lockdown, does the same as one with a crippling one?
That's weird no?

 

Worthy of some investigation or questioning?

 

592728423_ScreenShot2021-04-21at4_48_12AM.thumb.png.ea2c2569805034ae9abd6b7c9bc8b01b.png

Oh Boy George,

Yes, worthy some investigation. Because: it is not true.

You (blatantly) cut off the headline and (willingly?) confuse the ranking for number of total cases with deaths per million.

Sweden ranks 28 in overall cases, Israel ranks 29. 

Sweden ranks 29 in deaths per million.

Israel ranks 60. SIXTY in deaths per million. Not 29. And yes, surely hard lockdowns AND vaccination campaign that is the envy of most non-fuckheads played a role in the outcome. As did super-orthodox opposition against them.

So much for 'I AM THE ONLY GUY WHO KNOWS HOW TO DRIVE THIS DATAMOBIL, YOU IDIOTS!'

Make way for the scientistician!

Not. ¡No pasarán!

Rank Total Cases 21 April: 
swe_1.thumb.jpg.f1aad69128857f16cf9e424db38f66ec.jpg

Rank Deaths per Million: 

swe_2.thumb.jpg.6c28c6d7e3d427d4085065620737f69d.jpg

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15 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Sweden has dropped to #28 for deaths / 1million

Curiously: #29 is Israel, which obviously did a super hard lockdown, for, what, 4 months?  
 

--
Does this seem strange to anyone?

A country with no lockdown, does the same as one with a crippling one?
That's weird no?

 

Worthy of some investigation or questioning?

 

592728423_ScreenShot2021-04-21at4_48_12AM.thumb.png.ea2c2569805034ae9abd6b7c9bc8b01b.png

Australia and New Zealand did the lockdowns and where do we fit on your wonderful chart.

We have no community transmissions and we have reached the point where Covid is "eliminated" from society.

There is the expectation that Melbournes 100,000 person stadium will be allowed to operate at full capacity and may very well have 80,000 at the game on the weekend.

How's Sweden going, economically and socially compared with here? Lock down sucks, but it's better than the alternatives. 

Aussies will quickly forget pain of our lockdowns, but YOU will not forget your family and friends who have died prematurely because you don't want to do some hard yards. 

Toughen up BlatantPussy  

 

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46 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

It isn't eliminated.  

That is why it is quotes. We have reached the number of days without a case being detected in the population to be classified as "eliminated". But obiously it could be out there in the community and it is in hotel quarantine. As I live in Victoria where we have a government who has twice fucked up hotel quarantine and we may not be 3rd time lucky, I'm happy to live a relatively normal life whilst I can. This is unlike most other countries like Sweden where they think they can live normal, but their reality is far from it. 

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3 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

This is unlike most other countries like Sweden where they think they can live normal, but their reality is far from it. 

What do you call living "normal"?  Is normal where you can evaluate things and make up your own mind or rely on a Government and their bureaucrats driven by politics to decide what is best for you?

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2 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

What do you call living "normal"?  Is normal where you can evaluate things and make up your own mind or rely on a Government and their bureaucrats driven by politics to decide what is best for you?

Normal is when you don't have idiots like yourself causing others to have to hide in their home or wear a mask because you are too weak to put up with a bit of inconvinience.  Maybe people like you should grow up and grow some balls and do the tough yards.

Your attitude is no different to the leftwit morons who believe society owes them a comfortable living so they don't have to do it tough so they are motivated to have a better future. 

 

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24 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

Normal is when you don't have idiots like yourself causing others to have to hide in their home or wear a mask because you are too weak to put up with a bit of inconvinience. 

I'm not causing anyone "to hide at home and wear a mask".  In fact I'm doing the opposite and saying why shouldn't children be allowed to not wear a mask and go to school and learn and play (socialise) with their peers because they don't need to be afraid.

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Now:

4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

What do you call living "normal"?  Is normal where you can evaluate things and make up your own mind or rely on a Government and their bureaucrats driven by politics to decide what is best for you?

Back then:

On 12/9/2020 at 10:03 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

Jacko face it the pandemic is over in Sweden.

Reality. What a b*tch.

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23 hours ago, Matagi said:

Oh Boy George,

Yes, worthy some investigation. Because: it is not true.

You (blatantly) cut off the headline and (willingly?) confuse the ranking for number of total cases with deaths per million.

Sweden ranks 28 in overall cases, Israel ranks 29. 

Sweden ranks 29 in deaths per million.

Israel ranks 60. SIXTY in deaths per million. Not 29. And yes, surely hard lockdowns AND vaccination campaign that is the envy of most non-fuckheads played a role in the outcome. As did super-orthodox opposition against them.

So much for 'I AM THE ONLY GUY WHO KNOWS HOW TO DRIVE THIS DATAMOBIL, YOU IDIOTS!'

Make way for the scientistician!

Not. ¡No pasarán!

Rank Total Cases 21 April: 
swe_1.thumb.jpg.f1aad69128857f16cf9e424db38f66ec.jpg

Rank Deaths per Million: 

swe_2.thumb.jpg.6c28c6d7e3d427d4085065620737f69d.jpg

I went back to this chart hoping to glean some wisdom and was surprised to see Israel and Sweden almost identical in terms of cases per million people. 

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8 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

So Sweden's schools are safe as houses and no bureaucracy

Positive cases in most classrooms

From Sweden Public Health

Mandatory to attend if you don’t have symptoms - Illegal to refuse - No mandatory protection - Told don’t get tested if you have had Corona in the last 6 months - No tracing school cases

Strangely Swedish children live with and socialise with other than children

Strangely leaving schools open has not resulted in worse pandemic statistics than for example the UK where children were stopped from attending school for a year.  So in pandemic terms Sweden is better off and their children are now a year ahead in their education compared to the UK.  What's more the social skills and mental health of those children in Sweden must be considerably better than the UK's! 

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9 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Several Swedish regions reach maximum intensive care capacity

 

Depends what you call "maximum intensive care capacity" - in Sweden that is 80% i.e. keeping 1 in 5 beds empty!  Hardly maximum capacity.

From the article you cited:

Of those, 649 (85 percent) were occupied, including 416 (54 percent of the total available places, 63 percent of occupied beds) Covid-19 patients. That’s a higher figure than at the peak of the second wave: 636 patients were being treated in ICUs on January 13th. The peak of the first wave, the highest number of intensive care patients reported in Sweden at any point during the pandemic, was 777 patients on April 29th, 2020 (including all patients in intensive care, not just Covid-19).

54% were Covid-19 patients.

 

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Interesting the ebb and flow of this Topic titled "The Swedish Experiment"!

It very quickly became a hammer Sweden's pandemic strategy topic.  Yet here we are over a year on and Sweden has contrary to many predictions performed better than many countries.  Ironically it did so by following WHO recommendations and universally agreed strategies to manage pandemics created after decades of research prior to Covid-19.

The UK has had 64,000 confirmed cases per 1 million people.  Sweden 91,000.  I guess that is a fail?

Yet the UK has had 1,869 deaths per 1 million people and Sweden 1,368.  I guess that is a tick for Sweden?

127,000 people have died in the UK nearly 14,000 in Sweden.

The Imperial College Model was lent to Uppsala University experts who predicted in April 2020 that Sweden by following its agreed pandemic strategy would result in 96,000 people dying.  It hasn't happened.  Does that mean that Sweden's approach was a success or the model was a failure?

The UK has stopped children's education for a year - Sweden as per the plan made it mandatory for children to continue to be schooled.  Which country had the better approach?

90% of those who have died in Sweden were over the age of 70.  69% over the age of 80.  The median mortality for Covid-19 was the same as the average mortality.

12 yes TWELVE children under the age of 19 have died with Covid-19 in Sweden.

The mortality age distribution for the UK and Sweden are identical.

 

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Depends what you call "maximum intensive care capacity" - in Sweden that is 80% i.e. keeping 1 in 5 beds empty!  Hardly maximum capacity.

From the article you cited:

Of those, 649 (85 percent) were occupied, including 416 (54 percent of the total available places, 63 percent of occupied beds) Covid-19 patients. That’s a higher figure than at the peak of the second wave: 636 patients were being treated in ICUs on January 13th. The peak of the first wave, the highest number of intensive care patients reported in Sweden at any point during the pandemic, was 777 patients on April 29th, 2020 (including all patients in intensive care, not just Covid-19).

54% were Covid-19 patients.

 

The Swedish healthcare system was both stretched and fucked before Covid. They will never admit the truth.

The Swedish mentality would be that they keep the 20% free for non-covid emergencies and let people die.... Also it is very possible that they lack the nurses to look after the extra paitients.

My partner was a nurse in Sweden for 10 years and knows how the system works fails the population.

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Interesting the ebb and flow of this Topic titled "The Swedish Experiment"!

It very quickly became a hammer Sweden's pandemic strategy topic.  Yet here we are over a year on and Sweden has contrary to many predictions performed better than many countries.  Ironically it did so by following WHO recommendations and universally agreed strategies to manage pandemics created after decades of research prior to Covid-19.

The UK has had 64,000 confirmed cases per 1 million people.  Sweden 91,000.  I guess that is a fail?

Yet the UK has had 1,869 deaths per 1 million people and Sweden 1,368.  I guess that is a tick for Sweden?

127,000 people have died in the UK nearly 14,000 in Sweden.

The Imperial College Model was lent to Uppsala University experts who predicted in April 2020 that Sweden by following its agreed pandemic strategy would result in 96,000 people dying.  It hasn't happened.  Does that mean that Sweden's approach was a success or the model was a failure?

The UK has stopped children's education for a year - Sweden as per the plan made it mandatory for children to continue to be schooled.  Which country had the better approach?

90% of those who have died in Sweden were over the age of 70.  69% over the age of 80.  The median mortality for Covid-19 was the same as the average mortality.

12 yes TWELVE children under the age of 19 have died with Covid-19 in Sweden.

The mortality age distribution for the UK and Sweden are identical.

 

Your argument is based on comparing Sweden to a country that has failed miserably to implement their covid strategies. You should be comparing with Norway, Denmark or even Germany if you want any credibility with your argument.

 

Fucking moron...

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Currently, you have to look no further than India or Brazil to see what happens if you 'let it burn through'. 

So much for 'I AM THE ONE WHO CARES ABOUT THE POOR!'

How was the Mexico trip, by the way (#21 in deaths per million)?

Hypocrite.

 

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1 hour ago, BlatantEcho said:

Sweden has fallen to #29 on the mortality list by country.

Certainly they should be #1 because they didn't lockdown - or do all the measures of the rest of Europe?
What's the deal?
 

1435271763_ScreenShot2021-04-23at4_30_54AM.thumb.png.b7d7621bd77637258188d73773d67331.png

If you read posts on the first page or two you would understand that Swedes are very different to Americans, British and so on. If Government advice is X, Swedes will do X, if there was a country that might get away with no lockdowns and folowing government advice, it is Sweden. But you are too stupid to comprehend that. 

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11 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

If you read posts on the first page or two you would understand that Swedes are very different to Americans, British and so on. If Government advice is X, Swedes will do X, if there was a country that might get away with no lockdowns and folowing government advice, it is Sweden. But you are too stupid to comprehend that. 

So is this another version of the Dr Fauci line where he says the reason because Texas without lockdown is doing so much better than Michigan is because Texan's are better behaved than the people in Michigan?

Also aren't you a bit confused in your logic?  On the one hand arguing that Sweden hasn't done that well but on the other arguing they have because they have been compliant in following "recommendations"?

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21 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Your argument is based on comparing Sweden to a country that has failed miserably to implement their covid strategies.

No I'm comparing one country (the UK) that has had draconian measures in place for over a year with one that hasn't (Sweden) to highlight that the country that didn't have draconian measures in place has done significantly better.  Plus their young school children have continued to go to school and be educated.

Interesting how you describe the UK that has had draconian lockdown measures in place as having "failed miserably"!

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15 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Most of Europe have similar schools approach incl UK. Sweden envious of UK's good on-line teaching when needed.

 

Ask the school children if they are "envious".  The fact is that online learning severely impacts children's health both physical and mental.  I also disadvantages the poor, the disabled, those with learning difficulties and those children that are at risk from violence.

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14 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Kate I see you are one who like using comparative numbers to mislead people so I guess you are one of the covid crackpots who won't believe this set using excess deaths.

I have also marked Israel and Germany as mentioned here and not what people think relying on normal daily death counts which are useless for comparing

 

Yes the measure of excess deaths is interesting although prone to misinterpretation as there are different algorithm's used by different researchers.

Note in the following graph that ALL the countries you mentioned have had excess deaths over the past 14 months.  What is often overlooked is that Norway and Finland had excess deaths the year prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.  Some researchers believe this is one of the reasons in the disparity between them and Sweden.  

Of course many are quick to compare Sweden with its Nordic neighbours but overlook the fact that there are significant differences in the demographics of these countries.  Sweden has a large migrant population and more open borders than its neighbours - two factors of a number that have contributed to the differences in case numbers and deaths.

When you remove the Nordic neighbours from the graphs and just compare Germany, Israel and Sweden the graphs are remarkably similar.

1112043361_excess-mortality-p-scores(5).thumb.png.a031f5baba0e9012884ea8d0fab9e4e2.png

excess-mortality-p-scores (6).png

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

So is this another version of the Dr Fauci line where he says the reason because Texas without lockdown is doing so much better than Michigan is because Texan's are better behaved than the people in Michigan?

Also aren't you a bit confused in your logic?  On the one hand arguing that Sweden hasn't done that well but on the other arguing they have because they have been compliant in following "recommendations"?

I am arguing that because Swedes are "compliant" they are the best case example of such a strategy. In other words, most other countries would suffer much much worse if they followed the same strategy.

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

No I'm comparing one country (the UK) that has had draconian measures in place for over a year with one that hasn't (Sweden) to highlight that the country that didn't have draconian measures in place has done significantly better.  Plus their young school children have continued to go to school and be educated.

Interesting how you describe the UK that has had draconian lockdown measures in place as having "failed miserably"!

Then you might as well compare Sweden with Aus and NZ.

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PSA:

Please stop thinking of Sweden as a postercountry for 'having remained everything open' and especially of Swedes as too dumb not to draw their own conclusions.

As a proxy, here is the mobility data of Telia, a mobile phone network operator in all Nordic countries:

all-countries_w15_2021.png

https://www.teliacompany.com/en/about-the-company/updates/mobility-analysis/

Part of my interpretation of this data is: Swede's learned the hard way and than stuck to it, possibly resulting in fairly good numbers now. But you cannot erase the results of the initial failures.

 

 

PSA II:

Please stop thinking of Sweden as a country where schools remained always fully open. Upper secondary schools moved to online education fairly quickly. They know how to do that there. I went through it.

'Closing' upper schools and keeping lower schools open allowed for this interesting study, that shows that the number of infected teachers was twice as high in 'open' schools than in those where the teachers did remote lessons:

Table 1 shows that the likelihood of a positive PCR test was twice as high for lower secondary than for upper secondary teachers [OR 2.01; CI95 1.52–2.67]. [...]

Among the 124 compared occupations, upper secondary teachers (remote)(3.25/1000) are at the median while lower secondary teachers (open)(5.91/1000) constitute the 7th most affected occupation.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.13.20211359v3

No good use for a school if your teachers are sick, right?

 

 

Thank you for your understanding.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Matagi said:

PSA:

Please stop thinking of Sweden as a postercountry for 'having remained everything open' and especially of Swedes as too dumb not to draw their own conclusions.

As a proxy, here is the mobility data of Telia, a mobile phone network operator in all Nordic countries:

all-countries_w15_2021.png

https://www.teliacompany.com/en/about-the-company/updates/mobility-analysis/

Part of my interpretation of this data is: Swede's learned the hard way and than stuck to it, possibly resulting in fairly good numbers now. But you cannot erase the results of the initial failures.

 

 

PSA II:

Please stop thinking of Sweden as a country where schools remained always fully open. Upper secondary schools moved to online education fairly quickly. They know how to do that there. I went through it.

'Closing' upper schools and keeping lower schools open allowed for this interesting study, that shows that the number of infected teachers was twice as high in 'open' schools than in those where the teachers did remote lessons:

Table 1 shows that the likelihood of a positive PCR test was twice as high for lower secondary than for upper secondary teachers [OR 2.01; CI95 1.52–2.67]. [...]

Among the 124 compared occupations, upper secondary teachers (remote)(3.25/1000) are at the median while lower secondary teachers (open)(5.91/1000) constitute the 7th most affected occupation.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.13.20211359v3

No good use for a school if your teachers are sick, right?

 

 

Thank you for your understanding.

 

 

How is your research going on primary schools?  It will be interesting to see your conclusions.

So there are 6 occupations more affected.  Obviously they can't be ones teaching children.

I notice you cut your quote from the research short and didn't mention the following:

The results for parents indicate that keeping lower secondary schools open had minor consequences for the overall transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in society.

That would tend to indicate that there was other factors involved in secondary school teacher infections.  Perhaps it was the interaction amongst themselves rather than their students.

Thank you for your kind understanding and research as I know it must be hard for you to only post bad news.

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Of course the sentence is followed by another sentence that was (probably inadvertantly) omitted above:

'The results for parents indicate that keeping lower secondary schools open had minor consequences for the overall transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in society. The results for teachers suggest that measures to protect teachers could be considered'

That is high-swedish for: DO SOMETHING G'DDAMIT!

And rightly so: in this setting, the odds ratio for a teacher in an open school to get severly sick is 2.15 : 1 (lower row, mid)

teach.jpg.b60b0dd6655e7253b06bf6e3610877df.jpg

It is similar to the idea of 'letting it burn through':

Sick nurse: no care.

Sick teacher: no school. 

 

PS:

As my predecessor was eerily quiet on the Telia data, I take that this is now entered into the official records of this funny little thread, yes? Good.

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11 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

So is this another version of the Dr Fauci line where he says the reason because Texas without lockdown is doing so much better than Michigan is because Texan's are better behaved than the people in Michigan?

Also aren't you a bit confused in your logic?  On the one hand arguing that Sweden hasn't done that well but on the other arguing they have because they have been compliant in following "recommendations"?

Of corse, spread of a virus has absolutely nothing to do with human behaviour.

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56 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

I will give you a teaser while you do that. Sweden is surrounded by 3 countries having much lower incidence of Covid. Wouldn't that help shield Sweden like an island?

 

I said "open borders" and I wasn't referring just to land borders.  If you can drag yourself away from your Atlas I suggest you compare immigration policies of the respective countries to get a better understanding of what "open border" means!

57 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Work out why you are either wrong or being generous, there is nothing attached to Scandinavian demographics that makes Swedens Covid outcome so different. 

Sweden has a very large migrant population compared to Finland and Norway.  Sweden has had a much more open immigration policy than its neighbours.  These migrants live in much larger family groups and in apartment blocks.  That's just two demographic difference amongst a number that have been factors in Swedens higher excess mortality.

Getting back to excess mortality.  Sweden over the course of the pandemic has had an excess mortality of 5.9%.  Compare that with Israel (10+%), Belgium (11.6%), Denmark (1%), Germany (4.9%), UK (14.5%), Finland (1%), Norway (-1.7%), USA (21%).

Even NZ the lockdown/close the border hero has had 2% excess deaths!  4% difference between NZ and Sweden!

 

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8 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

I can now see why people say you are stupid. Excess deaths baseline is not prior year. Those countries EU neighbours and EEA for Norway same stat source.

I didn't say the "Excess Deaths baseline was the prior year".  The baseline is calculated on a range of years and is input into an algorithm (which varies considerably amongst the various Excess Death models) which adjusts for a wide range of factors including age distribution/demographics.  

The point I was making was that Sweden had a mild influenza season the year prior to the Covid pandemic.  Other countries such as Finland and Norway had more normal influenza seasons.  The implication being that the deaths of those vulnerable to respiratory diseases were deferred forward in the case of Sweden.

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9 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Stop misrepresenting what I say. Kids over 16 were not allowed to go to school. Their younger siblings had to. 

I haven't misrepresented what you have said.  As I quoted from the research posted by @Matagi keeping schools open had next to no effect on the pandemic in Sweden.

 

17 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The results for parents indicate that keeping lower secondary schools open had minor consequences for the overall transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in society.

 

 

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19 hours ago, Matagi said:

As a proxy, here is the mobility data of Telia, a mobile phone network operator in all Nordic countries:

all-countries_w15_2021.png

https://www.teliacompany.com/en/about-the-company/updates/mobility-analysis/

Part of my interpretation of this data is: Swede's learned the hard way and than stuck to it, possibly resulting in fairly good numbers now. But you cannot erase the results of the initial failures.

 

What was the definition of a "Trip"?  

How do you explain Denmark having zero excess deaths but had +4% more "Trips"?

Do you think the drop in W51 and W52 had something to do with everyone staying at home for Christmas/New Year?

 

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17 hours ago, Matagi said:

Of course the sentence is followed by another sentence that was (probably inadvertantly) omitted above:

'The results for parents indicate that keeping lower secondary schools open had minor consequences for the overall transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in society. The results for teachers suggest that measures to protect teachers could be considered'

That is high-swedish for: DO SOMETHING G'DDAMIT!

And rightly so: in this setting, the odds ratio for a teacher in an open school to get severly sick is 2.15 : 1 (lower row, mid)

teach.jpg.b60b0dd6655e7253b06bf6e3610877df.jpg

 

But it seems Teachers pass the virus to themselves when at work i.e. they don't get if from their students given that students don't take it home to their parents according to your "research"!

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Of course they do not get it from their colleague teachers.

There is a vast difference for your odds ratio if you spend your day with 100 students (4 classes day, 25 kids each, 1.5 hours each in a classroom), then as parents with 1,2 maybe 3.

The study compared occupations. So teachers in open schools are the 7th most affected occupation.

Given that teachers meet in a 'normal' office setting only briefly in between classes, how would that get them this much affected?

I Appendix shows an estimate for severe
cases of similar magnitude [OR 2.15; CI95 1.41–3.29].
In order to gauge the magnitude of the estihers, Fig. 3 compares the incidence of detected
SARS-CoV-2 among teachers with occupations at the three-digit level with at least 1000 employees in age
(healthcare workers excluded). Among the 124 compared occupations, upper secondary teachers (3.25/1000) are
at the median while lower secondary teachers (5.91/1000) constitute the 7th most affected occupation. Drivers
(which includes taxi drivers) are the at the top of the distribution while driving instructors have the same level of
infections as lower secondary teachers.
6
.
CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license
It is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
(which was not certified by peer review)
preprint
The copyright holder for this
this version posted December 11, 2020.
;
doi:
medRxiv pre
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54 minutes ago, Matagi said:

Of course they do not get it from their colleague teachers.

There is a vast difference for your odds ratio if you spend your day with 100 students (4 classes day, 25 kids each, 1.5 hours each in a classroom), then as parents with 1,2 maybe 3.

The study compared occupations. So teachers in open schools are the 7th most affected occupation.

Given that teachers meet in a 'normal' office setting only briefly in between classes, how would that get them this much affected?

I Appendix shows an estimate for severe
cases of similar magnitude [OR 2.15; CI95 1.41–3.29].
In order to gauge the magnitude of the estihers, Fig. 3 compares the incidence of detected
SARS-CoV-2 among teachers with occupations at the three-digit level with at least 1000 employees in age
(healthcare workers excluded). Among the 124 compared occupations, upper secondary teachers (3.25/1000) are
at the median while lower secondary teachers (5.91/1000) constitute the 7th most affected occupation. Drivers
(which includes taxi drivers) are the at the top of the distribution while driving instructors have the same level of
infections as lower secondary teachers.
6
.
CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license
It is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
(which was not certified by peer review)
preprint
The copyright holder for this
this version posted December 11, 2020.
;
doi:
medRxiv pre

At the school I used to work at, all F2F meetings are cancelled.  Staff meetings are now Zoom.  Parent/student conferences are also Zoom.  I wanted to do something for the teachers there, and was told that they never come to the staff room anymore, so there is no way to even deliver food to them.  People like me are being actively discouraged from promoting any kind of thing that might result in teachers congregating in the school.  Hope this ends soon.

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12 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Did you know labour immigration is greater in Norway than in Sweden?

According to the 2019 UN Report on Immigration.  https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/data/UN_MigrantStockTotal_2019.xlsx

Denmark 722,878 12.5%
Finland 383,116    6.9%
Norway 867,765 16.1%
Sweden 2,005,210 20.0%

12 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

You were at pains to say "open borders" was a difference so I'm assuming you just mean immigration, nothing else?

No I said there were many factors and that I was only naming a few.

12 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

What happened to Denmark, is that included or not? 

You can if you wish.  It doesn't change the fact that the "Neighbour Argument/Comparison" is a flawed hypothesis.  Why confine the Neighbours to just Nordic countries?  Why not include the Baltic States?  Why not compare population density vs infection rate?

Map  Description automatically generated

 

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12 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

That conflicts with this, noting the data sources

Did you just make those up?

358180391_FTExcessDeathsMarked.jpg.dc77f23305182582996bb41c3deb2e63.jpg

It doesn't conflict with your graphs.  However as I pointed out earlier there are several Excess Death models and they are all different.  Excess Death as a measure is determined by the algorithm used.  

I downloaded the data from https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid and have attached the file for you to do your own analysis.  The Ourworldindata link explains the limitations of using Excess Deaths as a metric.

The following graph is a comparison of three different models - there are lots more to choose from.

scb_excess_excess_deaths.jpg?w=1024

 

excess-mortality-p-scores (3).csv

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13 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Well actually you did say and emphasis the prior year, which makes your argument then invalid just as you say its "calculated on a range of years".

No what I said was that Finland had excess deaths in comparison to Sweden in the prior year due to the latter having a mild influenza season.  Note Sweden didn't lockdown in the 2019 flu season!

The numbers are as follows for Sweden comparing 2020 with 2019.  In 2020 there were Excess Deaths and in 2019 a Death Deficit i.e. the number of deaths in 2019 was BELOW average.

2020 EXCESS DEATHS :

Absolute excess deaths cmp baseline 15-18 : 6429
Absolute excess deaths cmp baseline 15-19 : 6978
Population adjusted excess deaths cmp baseline 15-18 : 3251
Population adjusted excess deaths cmp baseline 15-19 : 4334
Age adjusted excess deaths cmp baseline 15-18 : 1901
Age adjusted excess deaths cmp baseline 15-19 : 3146

2019 DEATH DEFICIT :
Absolute death deficit cmp baseline 15-18 : -2745
Absolute death deficit cmp baseline 15-19 : -2196
Population adjusted death deficit cmp baseline 15-18 : -5384
Population adjusted death deficit cmp baseline 15-19 : -4307
Age adjusted death deficit cmp baseline 15-18 : -6146
Age adjusted death deficit cmp baseline 15-19 : -4916

 

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48 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

You refuse to name the other demographic factors, yet this is the foundation stone to your argument to why Sweden has more Covid impact than Denmark, Finland & Norway

It's not the "foundation stone" to my argument however it is one that you are fixated on.  You are also fixated on the "Neighbours" comparison yet are selective in your choice of Neighbours.

What you are having difficulty with is that Sweden hadn't performed that badly in terms of pandemic metrics.  Contrary to all the doomsday predictions when it became clear that they were following a different strategy.

A strategy I might add that many countries including the WHO had agreed on prior to Covid-19.

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12 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

It's not the "foundation stone" to my argument however it is one that you are fixated on.  You are also fixated on the "Neighbours" comparison yet are selective in your choice of Neighbours.

What you are having difficulty with is that Sweden hadn't performed that badly in terms of pandemic metrics.  Contrary to all the doomsday predictions when it became clear that they were following a different strategy.

A strategy I might add that many countries including the WHO had agreed on prior to Covid-19.

So what is your point about Sweden then?

Oh that's right, no lock down, not doing too bad compared with some countries and not as bad as some people predicted.

Your conclusion, the Swedish way will work for all countries.

 

My conclusionn, you are still a fucking idiot not because of your conclusion but because you are incapable of understanding why you are so far off the mark.

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7 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

Oh that's right, no lock down, not doing too bad compared with some countries and not as bad as some people predicted.

Doing better than many countries.

Doing much much better than predicted by the doomsayers.

Isn't that good news?

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2 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Doing better than many countries.

Doing much much better than predicted by the doomsayers.

Isn't that good news?

That's good news for Swedes or at least the Swedes who haven't had a friend or relative die or get seriously ill because of covid or because they could not get treated for another condition because of the lack of medical resourses caused by covid.

They are still pretty fucked when compared with their neighbours and most countries in the world with their 1,349.67 deaths per million

 

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4 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

By God you bullshit

FT's uses K&K data

Different and your own ranking system no one uses by taking World Data and the % variance which has no comparative relevancy.

The only comparison which everyone uses is excess deaths per capita.

 

He is a trsetup for Covid, so there will not be any intelligence used by him..

 

but it kills some time replying to him wich some days is good.

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18 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Different and your own ranking system no one uses by taking % variance which has no comparative relevancy.

The only comparison which everyone uses is excess deaths per capita.

Do you really understand Excess Deaths?  The graphs you posted had % variances.  It is the one on the left.

18 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

That conflicts with this, noting the data sources

Did you just make those up?

358180391_FTExcessDeathsMarked.jpg.dc77f23305182582996bb41c3deb2e63.jpg

 

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6 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

You now switch and agree with yourself and imply Finland and Norway locked down in 2019.

 

No what I said was that Finland had a worse influenza season than Sweden in 2019 - neither of them locked down for the 2019 influenza season.  The inference being that some respiratory illness deaths were deferred.

You can't compare excess deaths between countries at a level lower than a year nor for that matter less than the duration of the pandemic (about 66 weeks now).  With any respiratory disease the seasons vary between countries and even within countries e.g. the USA.

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38 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

World in Data only publish weekly % not cumulative P score % so you just add up the weekly P scores % for the last 66 weeks (pre-pandemic to get more Swedish -ve numbers) and average.

So you don't understand or are extremely dishonest. 

 

Not correct - I added up the p scores and divided by the number of weeks listed in the data.  This is the raw data that Ourworldin data uses to display their graphs.

The first week for each of the Nordic countries is 05-01-2020 i.e. for Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway.  There is a different number of weeks for some countries and that is because there is a delay between when the death data is finalised.  So when dividing the accumulated scores I used the denominator relative to each country.  In this respect Sweden will be overstated not understated.

Country   Start Date # of weeks
Denmark 05-01-2020 68
Finland 05-01-2020 65
Norway 05-01-2020 66
Sweden 05-02-2020 65

Now if you take the average %'s that I posted which is not dissimilar to the other estimated totals that I posted which were derived using different method.

However the point the comparison between the countries uses the same method.

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55 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

So in summary you do this;

- Fabricate data, thinking everyone is stupid and they will miss that.

- Avoid answering questions, often responding to questions with questions.

- The above is to confuse people, including onlookers.

- Use diversion to avoid conceding when your own line of argument has gone down the toilet.

All to push your 'Sweden is Going Great' narrative.

 

Not correct.

In your response you have done exactly what you have accused me of and haven't specifically provided data to refute what I have posted.

We await your counter analysis.

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On 4/25/2021 at 11:18 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

How do you explain Denmark having zero excess deaths but had +4% more "Trips"?

Danes are even less friendly than swedes?

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5 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

but it kills some time replying to him wich some days is good.

No one knows better about killing time posting than our newest sock puppet.

Now I wonder who it could be...

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56 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Kate has fabricated Sweden's data. See preceding post.

That happens. We had a poster on here not that long ago that made up a complete bullshit story about the Government telling Australians to remain over seas in March last year. The silly cunt would not admit it even when faced with overwhelming evidence he made it up. Takes all kinds I guess. Anyway he is gone now... :) 

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1 hour ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

I understand Excess Deaths enough to see you never use Z Scores that scale by the standard deviation of deaths which are better than P Scores. They accurately reflect demographic, health care variances etc. Used in association with actual raw cumulative deaths for a better picture.

 

Mmmm are you sure about what you say about Z Scores?

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality

Moreover, if the natural variability of the weekly data is lower in one country compared to another, then the Z-scores could lead to exaggeration of excess mortality compared to the P-scores. Strictly, the Z-scores are not comparable across countries, 

 

As explained in Box 1, Z-scores deflate excess deaths by the standard deviation of normal deaths. In principle, given the assumption of the Poisson distribution, see Box 1, Z-scores should not be compared across countries of very different sizes, though they are useful for comparing the profile of weekly excess deaths for an individual country. The reason is, that countries with small populations and therefore more noisy weekly counts of mortality, have higher standard deviations relative to normal deaths than the more populous countries. In practice, due to the inappropriate assumption of the Poisson distribution (see Appendix 1), the excess mortality rankings between countries are more similar to the P-scores than expected.

The Poisson is likely to be poor approximation to the stochastic process for number of deaths, even in what EuroMOMO call normal seasons. EuroMOMO exclude Winter and Summer because of systematic shifts in mean deaths due to ‘flu, bad weather or heat waves. But it seems extreme to assume there are no systematic shifts in mean deaths throughout Spring and Autumn. If there are excess deaths due to a bad ‘flu in Winter, then in Spring below-average excess deaths should result. There are other examples, such as a measles outbreak, or changes in support for the homeless or for care homes (e.g. from fiscal austerity measures), that may affect mortality rates. There could also be time-varying clusters of different influences – such as a varying previous exposure to risks such as smoking – among the most vulnerable age groups. Thus, the constant mean assumption is almost certainly wrong. Turning to the weekly standard deviation for ‘normal’ seasons used by EuroMOMO to deflate the Z-score (see Box 1), variations in systematic factors such as these which shift the mean will be included in the measure, as well as random noise (see Box 2). Hence, Z-scores include these systematic features in the denominator and numerator. The paradox is that this makes the Z-scores somewhat more comparable for countries of different sizes (see Appendix 1). The Z-scores indicate approximately (given the Poisson assumption) in which weeks excess deaths were statistically significant;  hence they can in principle distinguish those countries with few, if any, weeks of excess deaths (e.g. Germany), from countries with many weeks of excess deaths (e.g. Belgium), irrespective of their large population size differences.

Another major defect of Z-scores, compared to P-scores and per capita excess death measures, is that their cumulation over multiple pandemic weeks is problematic. While excess deaths can be cumulated, the standard deviation of normal deaths cannot, and, in any case, EuroMOMO do not report either excess deaths or these standard deviations. This makes it hard to obtain a comprehensive summary of the pandemic’s impact from the Z-scores.

 
 
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15 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

That happens. We had a poster on here not that long ago that made up a complete bullshit story about the Government telling Australians to remain over seas in March last year. The silly cunt would not admit it even when faced with overwhelming evidence he made it up. Takes all kinds I guess. Anyway he is gone now... :) 

You already answered my last question. Sorry I did not read more posts before replying.

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