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The Swedish Experiment


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On 5/5/2021 at 10:37 AM, Plan Covid Normal said:

So Kate just marches on repeating that same bullshit 

Like you did about the DFAT notice, holding a marine radio licence, NZ entry numbers, QLD covid death numbers, contact tracing, being a member of RQ, owning a sailing yacht and having had a root in the last 20 years? 

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This is how stupid you sound: I've never had a car crash, so we should get rid of safety regulations and traffic laws.

Im hazarding a guess that you have never had to walk into the waiting room and tell a husband, son daughter father that their wife mother daughter has passed. Because today in the USA 512 doctors or n

Everyone in this thread is probably in a nursing home. They sound like Joe Biden trying to form a cognitive sentence.    "Uh, but, cases only, g.g.g.g.go down with lock-down." 'If you don't w

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So Jack you now openly post under two different accounts in different threads?

Seriously dude, you really need to pay for a blowjob. 

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Just because I heard someone say 'Whichever way you look at Sweden have successfully managed the pandemic'

Right up there with the prime example, the leader of the free world...

india.jpg.ec938211714b32df170e6079526fa950.jpg

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4 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Only open if you take notice of someone with no content bursting onto this thread looking for more toadies to back their bullshit as their supply of toadies is dwindling.

This one the OP of this thread with never a complaint here in over a year but now gone toade (spelling by snags)

 

 

I love it when you quote yourself. It’s so cute. It’s a good thing you live in a basement given you are so scared. 

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19 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Then there are those that don't don't provide any Covid content and go there for other reasons, one in particular along with a handful of 'toadies' comes to mind. In fact I now use a  new name exclusively used on Covid threads to reduce the trolling a bit. 

Completely batshit crazy. How is the reduced trolling bit going for you Jack? 

Did you buy a second screen to run two sock puppets?

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  • 2 weeks later...
9 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

No research from anywhere other than the USA?  Where do the papers mention border closures?

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9 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

2. Tegnell said when asked if his response risks lives:

“There has been an increase, but it is not traumatic so far.”

WRONG and still keeps to that line today.

Today it is like the Nordic 5 does't exist PLUS Sweden needed their spare health care capacity having far less cases/deaths. Excess deaths the difference even more stark. Luck that Sweden and many countries have enjoyed is also forgotten today. It could be far worse. 

Using countries that have completely stuffed it as a benchmark is not a benchmark, particularly if those that have done better are ignored. 

 

So you are now dropping Excess Deaths as the "Gold Standard" metric?

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10 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

5. Tegnell says: “Each country has to reach herd immunity in one way or another, and we are going to reach it in a different way.”

It didn't workout that way with spread slower than expected with lower IFR which saved Swedens arse. 

 

Jacko this takes the cake!!  So Sweden was "SAVED by a lower IFR"!!!!  For a start the IFR isn't a measure of the rate of transmission.  It is a measure of the the number of fatalities (F) per (R) number of infections (I).

After literally thousands upon thousands of pontificating posts over the last 18 months we all would have thought that you would understand that by now.

The Rwas initially over estimated.  It was assumed that the rate of infection in the population was greater than it actually was i.e. the virus was more infectious than it has actually proven to be.  That knowledge wouldn't have changed the pandemic management plan except if herd immunity was in fact the primary goal which in Sweden it wasn't.

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11 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Using countries that have completely stuffed it as a benchmark is not a benchmark, particularly if those that have done better are ignored. 

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Professor Wacko Jacko (SA identities @jack_sparrow AND @Plan Covid Normal) of the University of Hermitville, Big Red Rock, Southern Ocean did you apply your extensive epidemiological expertise to determining a multi-variate analysis of why the countries above might have different outcomes?  Or are you just looking for a correlation to support you cause?

For example according to the Ourworldindata stringency data there was no difference in NPI measures between the Nordic countries you have selected.

Average Stringency Index:
Denmark 57
Finland    43
Norway   51
Sweden  55

covid-stringency-index (5).png

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12 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Jacko only clipped a small piece of what Tegnell said.  I guess only quoting US data would suggest that Jacko had trouble finding any European data as well as Tegnell.

What evidence was this approach based on?

It is difficult to talk about the scientific basis of a strategy with these types of disease, because we do not know much about it and we are learning as we are doing, day by day. Closedown, lockdown, closing borders — nothing has a historical scientific basis, in my view. We have looked at a number of European Union countries to see whether they have published any analysis of the effects of these measures before they were started and we saw almost none.

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On 2/26/2021 at 9:13 PM, Kate short for Bob said:

You are a bit thick really Jacko.  Haven't you read the critique of how the stringency measure is calculated?  It is actually a load of bollocks.  But that doesn't stop you pushing pseudo science.

Ksfb, 26 February.

This Katiequote is brought to you by: 

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13 minutes ago, Matagi said:

Ksfb, 26 February.

This Katiequote is brought to you by: 

image.thumb.png.5286c49af20be0ab5d16bc392e5b8661.png

I didn't say I agreed with it in my most recent reference to it.  However it does highlight that there isn't an effective measure.  You and Jacko do tend to cherry picking.

You only have to look at the graph for India to see that the stringency measure is a load of subjective bollocks.

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Sure...

Once caught, you retreat faster than the French Fifth Army.

And if you think there are any cherries left in what you 'drop'... think again.

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20 minutes ago, Matagi said:

Sure...

Once caught, you retreat faster than the French Fifth Army.

And if you think there are any cherries left in what you 'drop'... think again.

I never retreat from a troll.  Have the Germans won a war yet?

I notice you haven't made a comment on the substance of the post.  But I realise that is probably a struggle for you.

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15 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I notice you haven't made a comment on the substance of the post. 

Ok, here it comes, you ready?

Tl;dr: There was none.

To make a point you used data to that you had rejected not that long ago. The use of your evidence for your argument is incoherent and thus your argument does not stand.

If that is trolling for you, you need a much thicker skin.

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13 hours ago, Matagi said:

To make a point you used data to that you had rejected not that long ago. The use of your evidence for your argument is incoherent and thus your argument does not stand.

I still reject the Stringency Index as a measure for the reasons I posted some time ago.  However when it doesn't support YOUR argument anymore you scurry around confused.

I take it you now agree with me that the Stringency Index is a crock of shit.

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1 minute ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I take it you now agree with me that the Stringency Index is a crock of shit.

I agree with you posting crock of shit. 

And not just once.

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You really are struggling with Swedens success aren't you @Plan Covid Normal aka @jack_sparrow.

Interesting that the best you can come up with is a cumulative case number graph.  Typical one factor analysis from Jacko.

Would you like to plot hospitalisations and deaths against those case numbers?  No that would be too difficult.

As for your bullshit description of the Nordic countries that takes the cake.

2 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

not stuck up close to the Arctic circle pff the beaten track with the Nordic 4 with same pop density and LOWER stringency BUT did far better.

When was the last time you travelled Jacko?

Which of the Nordic countries has the highest number of internal/external people movements by a significant margin? Hint:  for one factor one country has 40 million the next 30 million.

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14 hours ago, Matagi said:

To make a point you used data to that you had rejected not that long ago. The use of your evidence for your argument is incoherent and thus your argument does not stand.

NO I used YOUR data to prove YOU were wrong.  You can't have it both ways Matagi.

Doesn't change the fact that the Stringency Index data is crap for the very reasons I posted months ago.

However it would appear that you don't even think it can be used for comparative purposes amongs similar countries.  

That's the biggest problem with being unable the grasp the concept of multivariate analysis.

@Matagi and @jack_sparrow what level of Covid-19 deaths is a measure of success? 

At least Sweden didn't torture and harm their young children by banning them from attending school.

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3 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

Just in the EU/EAA there is 30 odd countries where Sweden had more excess deaths than over one third of them incl Germany and France having up to 5 times the population density.

They are also western European transport hubs internally & externally, not stuck up close to the Arctic circle pff the beaten track with the Nordic 4 with same pop density and LOWER stringency BUT did far better.

image.png.ed2f52cc12818c080c5a3504d2dd781c.png

BTW for stringency V Cases/Mortality you can always phone a friend who has now retreated to Godwin's Law.

 

As for "team", you two should be placed in a travelling exhibition post Covid until circuses get back on their feet.

Posted at 330am. Having trouble sleeping again Petal?

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5 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

LB instead of trolling here shouldn't you (& @The Dark Knightyour toade likey) be elsewhere?

https://forums.sailinganarchy.com/index.php?/topic/221747-it’s-been-a-long-week-for-someone/&do=findComment&comment=7536288

Seems its getting warmer there

I started this thread, I have Swedish citizenship. Whats your connection aside from your cronic addiction to wanking to Swedish blue movies? 

You wouldn't have a fucking clue about the Swedish medical system, society or mentality if I hadn't given you that info at the start of this. Fuck off to what you know from first hand experience, whatever that may be.

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5 hours ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

[Blurb]

That's a hell of a way to prime the Flick-o-matic™.

I'd call you a fool but even that is wasted on an idiot sock like you.

 

Fuck off already.

 

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18 minutes ago, Plan Covid Normal said:

A sock created that he and sock handler JS outed HIMSELF straightaway

LOL "Straightaway"!  Bullshit!  You made a feeble attempt to post in broken English and then when LB and I called you out only then did you admit it!

 

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On 5/18/2021 at 11:56 AM, Plan Covid Normal said:

[snip]

Never seen you here before

[snip]

You haven't been around long enough. This place didn't spark to life with you popping in. Quite the contrary, really ... the signal to noise ratio in this part of the forum has shifted from informative to mostly a shitshow with few sane posters left who spend too much time fending off the loonies and socks. Your very existence as an "internet persona" adds to that demise as you were created to add noise.

Usually, I put designer socks like you right on ignore and never quote or answer them, but: In your post that I have quoted as "Blurb" you announced to basically out another forum member, @The Dark Knight and his wife (!). That's a big no-no around here. But you probably knew that. Or maybe not. Who cares.

 

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Fuck me sideways.

Jack, is that you?! :blink:

 

Carry on then. But still, why the sock?

 

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15 minutes ago, PeterSailor said:

Give PCN a chance, he's good at distracting Kate.

Doesn't distract me at all.  @Plan Covid Normaland his other sock @jack_sparrow's modus operandi is obvious.  It isn't about informed debate about science at all.  What he is on about is hard to fathom although it would appear that this forum is his life.

What you and many others don't see is that your sycophantic following of the Sparrow is only distracting yourselves.

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  • 3 weeks later...

An absent friend dear old Jack Sparrow was very critical (well critical for Jacko was a zillion toilet roll posts of personal abuse, obfuscation and concealment) of when I posted accumulative excess mortality metrics for the duration of the pandemic.  Primarily I guess because they clearly showed that Sweden wasn't that far away from its Nordic neighbours as raw mortality figures would suggest.  Looking at the latest figures Sweden and Denmark are now nearly the same!

The accumulative excess mortality for Sweden that I posted was around 4.5%.  The following author calculates 4.1%.  

https://shahar-26393.medium.com/not-a-shred-of-doubt-sweden-was-right-32e6dab1f47a

However the following is an interesting graph which shows the All Cause deaths per million.  It shows that the year prior to 2020 was an outlier with a very mild flu season and that 2020 appears to have been a catch up year.

Excess mortality in Sweden in flu year 2019–2020

Continuation of the line, which was fit by the statistical model, yields the following estimates: In 2018–2019 there was “mortality deficit” in Sweden of 300 per million people (-3.3%) whereas in 2019–2020, the pandemic year, there was excess mortality of 364 per million people (+4.1%). Excess mortality following mortality deficit, and vice versa, are well known and expected, as the main source of mortality is an elderly population with limited life expectancy.

image.png.050613cd2d3709a5cda0d60cebaa4ced.png

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On 6/9/2021 at 5:51 PM, Kate short for Bob said:

An absent friend dear old Jack Sparrow was very critical (well critical for Jacko was a zillion toilet roll posts of personal abuse, obfuscation and concealment) of when I posted accumulative excess mortality metrics for the duration of the pandemic.  Primarily I guess because they clearly showed that Sweden wasn't that far away from its Nordic neighbours as raw mortality figures would suggest.  Looking at the latest figures Sweden and Denmark are now nearly the same!

The accumulative excess mortality for Sweden that I posted was around 4.5%.  The following author calculates 4.1%.  

https://shahar-26393.medium.com/not-a-shred-of-doubt-sweden-was-right-32e6dab1f47a

However the following is an interesting graph which shows the All Cause deaths per million.  It shows that the year prior to 2020 was an outlier with a very mild flu season and that 2020 appears to have been a catch up year.

Excess mortality in Sweden in flu year 2019–2020

Continuation of the line, which was fit by the statistical model, yields the following estimates: In 2018–2019 there was “mortality deficit” in Sweden of 300 per million people (-3.3%) whereas in 2019–2020, the pandemic year, there was excess mortality of 364 per million people (+4.1%). Excess mortality following mortality deficit, and vice versa, are well known and expected, as the main source of mortality is an elderly population with limited life expectancy.

image.png.050613cd2d3709a5cda0d60cebaa4ced.png

Too much truth for Jack!

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