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The Swedish Experiment


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You guys are a funny lot.  
I'm flying around the US at the moment, enjoying the country.  You are all freaking out online about something that history will regard as 'the worlds biggest overreaction'

 

Is the plan for NZL and AUS just to... you know, stay closed forever?
If people stick their heads deep enough in sand, for long enough, and maybe hold hands, the virus will go away?

And then, I guess if people only go to their safe spaces for the next 10 years, this will all be over in a decade.
Lol, who are you guys?

I've tried to be respectful, but I don't care anymore.  

I showed CDC data of IFR of .24-.36% - was accused of cherry picking.
Showed that 60Million people a year die, and 1.2% will be Covid - nope, you all agreed, no context is allowed.
Posted medical studies that show most people don't even notice if they get it - not good enough for the scientists here.

 

It's like a liberal college campus in here. If you don't agree with the mob, you can't talk.
If you don't toe the line - 'your facts aren't welcome here mate!  We don't listen to science, just emotions'

You're all like a bunch of old men yelling at kids on your lawn.
'These damn whipper snappers, with their electronic telephones and interwebz'


I wish I could be more articulate online. If that's my biggest flaw, bring it on, I'm not the worlds best epidemiologist like the rest of you.

Have fun keeping your borders closed forever, to keep the scary things out.
I guess while you wait for the US or Europe to bail you out with a vaccine.  Classic.


Here's one more Stanford doctor explaining things to you all. 
https://techstartups.com/2020/06/22/rise-coronavirus-hospitalizations-among-young-people-good-thing-leads-herd-immunity-long-term-stanfords-dr-scott-atlas-says/

 

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This is how stupid you sound: I've never had a car crash, so we should get rid of safety regulations and traffic laws.

Im hazarding a guess that you have never had to walk into the waiting room and tell a husband, son daughter father that their wife mother daughter has passed. Because today in the USA 512 doctors or n

Everyone in this thread is probably in a nursing home. They sound like Joe Biden trying to form a cognitive sentence.    "Uh, but, cases only, g.g.g.g.go down with lock-down." 'If you don't w

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8 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I'm sure your analytical skills are incredible in real life!

Not at all, I barely graduated college, it was a miracle.
 

But, compared to people who seem scared of data sets, facts, or science - I look like god damn Albert fucking Einstein trying to explain the theory of relativity.

Everyone in the room is just look around uncomfortably until someone makes a fart joke.

 

 

This is very very very simple stuff gang.
Yes, you're all emotional.
Yes, you all have empathy.
You have compassion and you want to minimize death.

 

Those are all enviable human qualities.


But, it doesn't make the earth flat....even if you keep saying it is.

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10 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What about you, d'?

All good here, wishing my predictions for Texas and Houston weren't coming true. Our state has decided the best course of action is a stern talking to while continuing to pretend all is well.  If anyone had learned even a little bit about the flu pandemic of of 1917/1918 we would be in much better shape. I have a number of friends and relatives in rural Texas and OK who just don't believe anything will ever happen.

History is repeating itself.

BabblingEcho it's more like you are Norman Einstein as Eva Dent

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5 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

Not at all, I barely graduated college, it was a miracle.
 

But, compared to people who seem scared of data sets, facts, or science - I look like god damn Albert fucking Einstein trying to explain the theory of relativity.

Everyone in the room is just look around uncomfortably until someone makes a fart joke.

 

it's weird though how many of those full lockdown countries have already recovered much of their GDP with a few hundred or thousand deaths though, isn't it?  Whatcha think we fucked up so bad that they didn't?

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6 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

All good here, wishing my predictions for Texas and Houston weren't coming true. Our state has decided the best course of action is a stern talking to while continuing to pretend all is well.  If anyone had learned even a little bit about the flu pandemic of of 1917/1918 we would be in much better shape. I have a number of friends and relatives in rural Texas and OK who just don't believe anything will ever happen.

History is repeating itself.

BabblingEcho it's more like you are Norman Einstein as Eva Dent

I read somewhere today, that in Texas they opened one of the children's hospitals for adult covid patients due to the shear volume. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/06/23/texas-childrens-hospital-starts-admitting-adult-patients-as-coronavirus-cases-in-the-state-soar-to-record-levels/#2730ef487c54

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1 minute ago, Keith said:

I read somewhere today, that in Texas they opened one of the children's hospitals for adult covid patients due to the shear volume. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/06/23/texas-childrens-hospital-starts-admitting-adult-patients-as-coronavirus-cases-in-the-state-soar-to-record-levels/#2730ef487c54

Yep, part of the med center Texas Childrens - first time to ever admit adults. But we are still racing - RS 21 NAs held here last weekend, Wed nights and Rum races going like nothing ever happened. AFAIK there have been no outbreaks in the sailing community but it's not if it's when. Numbers don't lie and covid don't care.  I stopped racing in early March. 

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27 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

Not at all, I barely graduated college, it was a miracle.
 

But, compared to people who seem scared of data sets, facts, or science - I look like god damn Albert fucking Einstein trying to explain the theory of relativity.

Everyone in the room is just look around uncomfortably until someone makes a fart joke.

 

 

This is very very very simple stuff gang.
Yes, you're all emotional.
Yes, you all have empathy.
You have compassion and you want to minimize death.

 

Those are all enviable human qualities.


But, it doesn't make the earth flat....even if you keep saying it is.

The age of miracles has not passed......  you have seen us at 40,000 feet, Recently too, you pompous self entitled Right wing elitist..... we need you!

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4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

I've tried to be respectful......

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

You are all freaking out online..

Are you freaking out online??..nah....what about you...nah..what about off line then?? noooo ....Govt got all under control...good balance life/$...everybody advised.......mmmmm that's strange you lot are not freaking out.

4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

I wish I could be more articulate online.

Yes we wished you told the truth too.

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6 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Who's freaking out?  You freaking out, Dark Night?

fuck no... 

It's amusing seeing what the low IQ think.

BE probably thinks the earth is flat, the Apollo landings were shot in a studio and 9/11 was faked by the CIA

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, d'ranger said:

Yep, part of the med center Texas Childrens - first time to ever admit adults. But we are still racing - RS 21 NAs held here last weekend, Wed nights and Rum races going like nothing ever happened. AFAIK there have been no outbreaks in the sailing community but it's not if it's when. Numbers don't lie and covid don't care.  I stopped racing in early March. 

Update: a member of Wed race committee tested positive so postponing races for 2 weeks. I mean, like what are the chances that could possibly happen here. 

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Ever wondered how Germany turned to shit in the 30's?  Pretty simple really most of them wanted to be part of that scat movie and those that didnt were initially apathetic then too frightened to do much about it. What are you guys up to now 120,000? Jesus titty fucking christ, you guys invaded the entire Middle East for 3000 yet here you are pretending everything is fine while you wheel grandma out and chuck her in the oven called "the economy"

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8 hours ago, toad said:

Ever wondered how Germany turned to shit in the 30's?  Pretty simple really most of them wanted to be part of that scat movie and those that didnt were initially apathetic then too frightened to do much about it.

Surely not a coincidence???

Preamble: 1924 to 1929 Hitler's Nazi party little electoral success with only a dozen seats in the Reichstag. By July 1932 they had 230 seats and were the largest party.

- A first class propganda machine used to promote a "New Germany" a "one community" that would make religion or social class less relevant to people. This had wide socio economic appeal.

- The Discarded - Semetism and racial differences etc simply didn't fit this New Germany approach plus added appeal there for those supporting more extreme policies against Jews/other races. Initially ignored by those that didn't but then later they turned a blind eye.

- Wealthy Businessmen: were frightened of the left/communists diluting their wealth so started giving money to Hitler and the Nazis to gain more seats in the Reichstag to stop/control that. Those in industry concerned over the communist left appeal to their workforce. The lefts strength, but was mainly in the cities only.

The Middle-Class: Generally very traditional but concerned politically about Weimar democracy. Hitler promised them to drain the Weimar swamp and create a strong government. However once in power started turning the Weimar into a totalitarian state.

Nationalists: Blamed the legacy of the Treaty of Versailles and reparations for causing a Depression and other countries getting stronger at their expense. Nazis promised to make Germany strong again.

Rural areas: Appealed to a wide range of middle and lower class shopkeepers and craftsmen, farmers and agricultural labourers particularly where high unemployment was felt.

Yes all just a coincidence.

Trump family Nazi ideology connection

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On 6/23/2020 at 6:50 PM, MR.CLEAN said:

it's weird though how many of those full lockdown countries have already recovered much of their GDP with a few hundred or thousand deaths though, isn't it?  Whatcha think we fucked up so bad that they didn't?

The IMF disagrees with you, they wrote how the economic decline is worse than anticipated:

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/

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This is an article in a libertarian magazine, so, you can all ignore it since it's not the NY Times, even though it's based on CDC data:
https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid-19-infections-rise-patients-are-getting-younger/
 

(bolding mine)

" Last month the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that the risk of death for people with COVID-19 symptoms is just 0.05 percent among patients younger than 50.
That risk rises to 0.2 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds and 1.3 percent among people 65 or older."

 

That means, for these age brackets:

- Under 50:   Covid19 is about 60% LESS deadly the the common flu    (Covid-19 survival rate: 99.95%)
- Age 50-64:  Covid is about 35% more deadly than the flu  (Covid-19 survival rate: 99.8%)
- Age 65+: Covid is about 10x more deadly than the flu  (Covid-19 survival rate 98.3%)



Let that sink in a bit in the context of the world's reaction to this virus.

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anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

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Is it not a little early to be staking our colours to the mast of the good ship " This is really, really, really deadly and the shy is falling in" , when articles, such as:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-million-americans-may-have-had-covid-19-as-new-cases-surge-20200626-p556c4.html

appear?. Is the data really "IN" so conclusions can be drawn?

Twenty million Americans may have had COVID-19 as new cases surge

US officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions of people have had COVID-19 and never knew it.

The figure is nearly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed,

......

JUST ASK"N

 

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20 minutes ago, toad said:

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

you forgot about the majestik møøse

 

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6 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Is not a little early to be staking our colours to the mast of the good ship " This is really deadly and the shy is falling in" , when articles, such as:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-million-americans-may-have-had-covid-19-as-new-cases-surge-20200626-p556c4.html

appear?. Is the data really "IN" so conclusions can be drawn?

Twenty million Americans may have had COVID-19 as new cases surge

US officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions of people have had COVID-19 and never knew it.

The figure is nearly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed,

 

 

agreed

nothing final yet

guess have an issue with the story...... this is just a flu....less than a flu etc

there is enough data to suggest that is not the case

in the alternative......... why are many excellent medical people seriously concerned if there is no reason to be concerned?

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2 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Is it not a little early to be staking our colours to the mast of the good ship " This is really, really, really deadly and the shy is falling in" , when articles, such as:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-million-americans-may-have-had-covid-19-as-new-cases-surge-20200626-p556c4.html

appear?. Is the data really "IN" so conclusions can be drawn?

Twenty million Americans may have had COVID-19 as new cases surge

US officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions of people have had COVID-19 and never knew it.

The figure is nearly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed,

......

JUST ASK"N

 

And I may have fucked your grand mother.

 

You idiot.

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2 hours ago, toad said:

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

Selznick_4561_29_001-759x1024.jpg

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4 hours ago, toad said:

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

 

1174ba2d8bc6c0c698927cee5fc83592.jpg

 

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4 hours ago, toad said:

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

easy,

 

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13 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Let that sink in a bit in the context of the world's reaction to this virus.

Took a bite of it...thinking it smelt and tasted like shit should smell and taste like.....shortly thereafter that original thought turned out to be true, with the addition it now also "steamed" and "floated," not "sinking" as you claimed.

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16 hours ago, toad said:

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

Really?

yH8mtloDgh7JTybmi926-PPnUlfPHmdat4qtVBhG

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On 4/26/2020 at 6:31 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Rob I feel like a prick disagreeing with you the sensible and thinking Covid one, but I must. So to respect that I have to go "word salad" which bores many to death and some repeats from my posts elsewhere that refer to Sweden. 

Any Swedes who have dialled in please don't read this as criticism. It is hopefully an impartial appraisal.

Yes Rob as you say the Jury is out on Sweden as most countries but IMHO this is a case of OJ Simpson is in the dock. 

The prosecutions case is assisted by the fact the Swedes to their credit unlike many have transparent and readily available Covid data. Flip side is they are masters at spinning it for political gain domestically and maybe internationally and that should be judged accordingly.

Their approach being the odd man out in Europe, if not globally, means a lot of people with very large epidemiology heads have been examining their virus response approach and outcomes in a lot of detail compared to others, not just because it is contry to theirs. Without that I couldn't write this.

So starting see graph below on Euro virus responses.

_111648245_european_countries_lockdown_cv_640-3x-nc.thumb.png.cc09339c4800769f30f3e8c9cdccf2f8.png

Their expert examination is aided by the fact Professor Johan Giesecke, is one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, an advisor to the Swedish Government, WHO and ECDPC scientist. He also appears to be the face of Sweden's response not so much Anders Tegnell directing Swedish strategy. Maybe that's a media thing. As you can see from what follows, maybe not.

Typically Swedish very blunt about what he thinks which is refreshing. For instance he is scathing of the UK's response. That is principally due to the fact that up until 16 March (implemented a week later, see above graph), the UK were mirroring the Swedes. This is not widely appreciated in the UK due to some slight of hand political shitfuckery there. 

However because of that late UTurn by the UK their outcomes become very instructive for the EU.

While many disagree with his approach they do appear to respect him very highly as a scientist.

Is Sweden That Different.

Firstly the appearance that Sweden's approach is literally one of ignore COVID is false. That being they have solely a "mitigation/herd immunity" strategy. That is literally only some "hand washing" and maybe isolate those most at risk. That is incorrect. They have a "mitigation' and "suppresion" hybrid approach as follows.

- Large groupings outside normal day to day business are prohibited.

- An extraordinarily large number of people live alone courtesy of some decades old Swedish Govt social engineering.

- The Swedes are the world's original social distancers by culture. This pic courtesy of @The Dark Knight the OP of this thread says it all. Anyone who has spent time in Sweden will recognise this is not an exaggeration.

91272820_10206940071215872_4281039644772007936_n.thumb.jpg.d1b66bdaab7596704554a69dd6f6a684.jpg.85ad96f77056276e44269cd957933c81.jpg

- Apart from the above their viral response is textbook "mitigation" so no test/trace and so any reliable case data is only that produced via the hospital front door. Much like the UK and US and exact opposite to say Germany in their same postcode.  

Therefore with the above caveat on case data, Sweden's Active Cases and Daily Case numbers as they relate to impacting upon hospital admissions can be regarded as reasonably reliable for broadbrush comparisons for trajectory only. Sweden is arguably looking more towards a plateau than a peak. Iceland having that with no lock down and the UK with late lockdown are headed maybe instructive. 

20200425_WOC281.thumb.png.3c7cc764654754f301e2d045d7cc0a38.png

Why have Sweden adopted this "go it alone" strategy?

- One of the worst health care systems in Europe so the economic loss of "suppression" versus "saving lives" is a closer equation for Sweden.

- They have a higher proportion of over 65's compared to Europe so on paper are at risk, but they are located outside more dense locales like Stockholm and older people transmit less. Younger people transmit more, but less chance of ending up in body bag. The US with NYC and UK with London have a similiar demographic.

- Neighbourly considerations. Sweden immediate neighbours are Norway to the north which while in single market, free movement of people etc, is not in the EU Common Market so there is an element of existing border controls to reduce impact upon them. The comparative numbers show that has worked.

The other the Netherlands in the EU to the south were a very early lock down country as shown in the above graph. Interestingly there is an argument they have not benefited by  having Sweden as a neighbour even with that.

- The Government know they are not doing a true "mitagation/herd immunity" strategy but  a "hybrid" as outlined above, so covering their bets to some extent.

- Finally the social question every country faces and it's Government faces? What is an acceptable mortality rate? The Swedes simply are prepared to 

Observations

I can't cite the following observations as it would take for ever. However they are only drawn direct from global epidemiology leaders like Sweden's Giesecke and the UK's Ferguson and others. No crackpots or media interpretations.

- Sweden is still seeing day-on-day increases in death and infection rates, whereas places like the UK which is not brilliant in terms of testing and death rate it's has now fallen to below R1 for infection (how many people one person can infect).

- Regardless of what Sweden has done the Infection-Fatality Rate in cities or regions of higher population are all in the same range 0.7 - 0.9% with the only difference being demographics etc.

- Sweden claim with mitigation the correct policy is only to protect those most at risk only and this will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product.” Putting aside that globally isolating those at risk has not worked including in Sweden, Sweden claims the flattening of any curves is due to the most vulnerable dying first. That may well be true but Sweden goes one step further and says that is as much to do with a lockdown as anything else. So to interrogate that.

- The infection rate will always tell the right not a different story. For instance taking the largest sources of mortality with similiar demographics being London, Stockholm and New York where both London and New York closed down arguably later than they should have putting their respective health care systems on the edge of imploding and Stockholm with no close down and similarly so but having already accepted as a nation a higher mortality rate.

They all have an infection crate within 5% of a band between 20 - 25%. Furthermore this undermines Sweden's thoughts that a much higher "herd immunity" rate as a “by-product” of say 60% or higher can be produced. If it had been produced with the above 0.7 - 0.9% CFR existing in those three cities, Stockholm would be a killing field.

- Overlaying this is there being no evidence yet that prior exposure to COVID guarantees any level of immunity. The WHO have been saying this for weeks to warn countries of the folly attached to Immunity Passports.

- Sweden are claiming that post lock-down other countries fatality rate will pick up which not many will dispute. However the further claim being they will then catch to Sweden (who has not incurred the economic impact of a close down) is solely based upon Sweden enjoying "herd immunity."

Yet the sole underlying foundation to Sweden's thoughts is "herd immunity" will be achieved but with a higher front end shock. The problem is that 'herd immunity" hasn't occured. 

So using the three cities on a per capita basis Stockholm has climbed/is climbing the ladder faster with the benefit of hoping for a larger parachute than London and NYC. The reality is all three after lock-downs are done, all three have the same sized parachute within +/- 2.5%.

Conclusion

To paraphrase Professor Johan Giesecke on behalf of Sweden only a week ago and which he has guided Sweden's response according to him, which on the evidence appears true.

"Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people." 

Now the gloves come off.

That from Giesecke a scientist who may or may not ever ever ventured inside a hospital and or has any clinical experience with respiratory viruses. From one who has and is working on the front line involving body bags not sitting behind a desk writing papers and is comparing CONVID to the flu as follows:

"This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail.

This is a very very different disease"  ..."Normally, a viral or bacterial infection of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequen ce of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid -19. What they are seeing is that there  is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung."  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK.

Yes Rob I'm a ventriloquist. The place to go on SA if you want to know "How Covid-19 Kills You" by @RobG

So back to the Swedish brainfart extraordinary.

Even those into writing papers down the road from Sweden in the Netherlands underwriting what Montgomery has said above.

3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach 

OR maybe this and experiences predating the brainfart from Stockholm a week ago from the US.

cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics 

Then again to finish to paraphrase from my daughter the Paramedic on the frontline.

"Dad they should have been with a Blood/O2 less than 40 fucking stone dead, but these people were still talking and lucid and we get some to hospital and they end up Ok we are told..... Yet we get others down a bit on O2 normal and happy to walk to the truck unassisted and they have a friggin heart attack.. bang dead on the spot even with Defrib before getting some out their front door...this virus and heart attack shit every 5 minutes is driving us insane."..."Shit ..are you eating well darling??..

 So Professor Johan "it's only a mild disease and similar to the flu" Giesecke have you got anything to say about the above frontline experiences, work and procured knowledge of the above people numbering in thousands around the globe?  I thought not. Just a bit of Swedish political propaganda hoping no one will notice mate.

....................................

The Interview the Swedish Govt have Tried to Ban Internationaly

Anyway haven't quite finished with you yet Professor Johan. You say again last week paraphrasing;

"The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%. At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available"

So OK Johan would you mind to finish this (you) off quickly after your bad flu political shitfuckery happy to go to a Q&A format?

JG. No problem I'm Swedish...and yes the only bad flu thing I may have embellished. Forgive me.

JS: Mate your fatality rate of 0.1% you said just last week you are happy with that in terms of what world experts are saying? It seems low depending on locale?

JG: It's looking shakey...can I pass on that one?

JS:  OK Johan just this once. Your 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden having already had the disease?

JG: No that is wrong it's around 20- 25% at best as the NYC, London and Stockholm data shows.

JS: So why did you suggest 50% happening like soon?

JG; I made that up

JS: Fuck...So your whole "herd immunity" concept thing is dead?

JG; Dead as a duck....yep culled the herd shit by over half, its a goner.

JS: But you said it was alive last week?

JG: Jack I was speaking "political" not "scientific" then.

JS: So Johan when do you speak "scientific"?

JG: Only occasionally these days..you know how it goes.

JS. Jesus fucking Christ. So when does this antibody testing you speak of start happening in Sweden or the UK?

JG: No idea ...is Sweden doing that??

JS: Mother of God..So basically Johan you have just been pulling Swedish CONVID political shit out of your arse and casting it on the world stage to make you Viking lot look like geniuses??

JG: I would prefer words easing and super warrior geniuses.

JS: No worries mate ..great interview as usual. Someone get me out of here before I kill this cunt.

JG: But what about our next one??

JS: Next fucking what Johan the Murderer??

JG: You know the interview about my theory Boris Johnson is the host for my bad flu. The Chinese aren't to blame and why we put more IKEA pieces in to drive you lot mad with leftovers.

JS: Sure Dr Gorballs get your people to contact my people.

............................................

Just a more serious note.

It is pretty clear by the data Sweden is going to get fucking belted.

However to their credit the social question of what is an acceptable mortality rate Sweden appears to have answered and accepted a high one. Higher again versus prediction that a domestic issue for them.

The Government appears to have facilitated that with no national objection so far. That is their decision and should be respected from those outside. Most Government's don't facilitate that discussion domestically and even if the Swedish administration haven't quite done that, many think they have. 

However when some lying Swedish cocksucker who has moved from science to political shitfuckery and starts preaching on the international stage he can stick that shit up his blond Viking arse. 

Note: Declared interest. I have a child in the Netherlands and another in a another country, a front line Paramedic who tells me stuff that makes your hair curl. The latter makes me very scathing of those that promote this is "only a bad flu" whack-job narrative. Also explains my Covid global interest.

I like the bus stop analogy for Swedish normal social interaction distancing.  I was raised Danish American, and our neighbor, Norwegian, and we were joking that the 6’ social distancing rule is a bit confining, since 10’ is way more comfortable.  Part of the problem with social distancing in Western Washington State is that the Scandinavian freeze isn’t what it used to be,  

Anyway, the book ‘World War Z’ is looking more and more like a popular cultural analogue of differing national response to COVID 19.  Science filtered by culture!  I‘m shocked.  And in culturally diverse countries, it begs for diverse approaches.  By this I specifically mean effective PPE for anyone who wants it.  Most won’t even care, as Eva Dent, but it seems insane to count on cloth masks and social distancing when 70-80% of a population just won’t do even that. If the line is that masks are a choice, and you make the choice to wear one, it should be a mask appropriate to reality:  if people want to breath in your face without a filter, you need protection from that. The argument that n95’s (for example) are only for the medical establishment is based on a sadistic entertainment promulgated by Trump and his buddies in the Senate that is based on the notion that it’s  more fun to limit essentials and watch people fight each other for them.  Think about it: this is Trump’s managerial style, and has always been, pitting people against each other. The Trump administration was warned by manufacturers of n95 masks that there was a shortage months before COVID-19 happened, and Trump did nothing. I’d argue Trump made it worse by insisting in reliance on foreign manufacture, China specifically.  

So yes, culture matters.....

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-30/anders-tegnell-architect-of-the-swedish-model-coronavirus/12384966

It would be good to be Swedish and not care about the 5280 deaths so far. But it's not a surprise when a large portion of the deaths are of immigrants. 

Anders Tegnell, the man behind Sweden's contentious coronavirus plan, has a legion of fans — and critics

 / 

By Mark Corcoran and Bronwen Reed

Posted 4hhours ago, updated 2hhours ago
Swedes gather in the sun around a lake.
Summer in Stockholm ... it's "lockdown lite". Sweden's strategy for fighting coronavirus has been based around individual responsibility.(Reuters: Stina Stjernkvist)
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As the architect of Sweden's controversial COVID-19 strategy, Anders Tegnell is a scientist with security.

Sweden's chief epidemiologist routinely walks the short distance through Stockholm's streets from his office to the Health Ministry Press Centre, flanked by two no-nonsense men with earpieces.

He's become a deeply polarising figure in the global debate on how best to combat coronavirus.

Anders Tegnell
Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell's plan has been likened to a herd-immunity strategy — a charge he denies.(Foreign Correspondent)

Under his guidance, Sweden was the only EU country not to impose tough, extensive, mandatory lockdowns. As the country's death toll rises, Tegnell faces a growing chorus of international condemnation and recently, a few death threats.

But, this being Sweden, a proudly egalitarian society, he's still on the street and accessible to foe and friend alike. "Good work, gang!" yells a supporter as she whizzes past Team Tegnell on her bicycle.

Anders Tegnell is not bowing to pressure. He still believes tough, short-term lockdowns are not the way to beat COVID-19, and that his strategy of keeping society largely open and the economy running will be proven right in the long term.

The man with the plan

Tegnell typifies Swedes' self-image as low-key, no-nonsense types. Fielding questions from journalists in the street, he doesn't even break his stride.

Journalist: A fair amount of pressure in your life these days?

Tegnell: Ah. Not that bad.

Journalist: You're one of Sweden's most famous men?

Tegnell: It will pass.

Journalist: Isn't there something you like about celebrity?

Tegnell: Not at all — I prefer to do my work.

This is not his first high-pressure assignment. Tegnell cut his epidemiological teeth during a deadly Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the 1990s.

As he fronts up to face the world's cameras, he calmly takes all questions, explaining why Sweden's pandemic plan is still working despite a COVID death toll that now rises beyond 5,000.

Anders Tegnell.
Tegnell has become a national celebrity, not just for Swedes but among many around the world who have questioned mandatory lockdown measures.(Foreign Correspondent)

"Do you think in retrospect now that actually trying to stop the disease — immediately — would have been a wiser solution," he's asked, "or do you still believe this long term strategy is the way to go?"

"We basically still think that this is the right strategy for Sweden," Tegnell replies.

"This is a bit like having an ocean liner and trying to steer it with a lag of three or four weeks. I think we are too early to both say Sweden was right or anybody else was right."

It's increasingly a tough message to sell, particularly when other Nordic countries that went into lockdown are now seeing infection rates decline. Controls are being relaxed and their regional borders are reopening — except to Sweden.

The Tegnell approach

When it comes to COVID-19, Sweden has been doing it differently. There have been no "go-hard, go-early" lockdowns; no chaos, no dramatic TV images of over-crowded intensive care hospital wards.

Tegnell's high-risk strategy centres on not doing very much at all, imposing a kind of "lockdown lite", relying on a national culture of individual responsibility, where social distancing and working from home are voluntary.

School students run down a red carpet.
Stockholm school students recently celebrated their high school graduation. Gatherings of more than 50 are banned.(Reuters: Jessica Gow)

Mandatory closures have been few, largely limited to high schools, universities and retirement homes, while public gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned.

The rest has been largely left to the discretion of individual Swedes. Sweden's Government says it's taking a long-term strategy in combatting COVID-19, intended to keep society — and the economy — running.

Sweden's COVID-19 cases vs Nordic neighbours

020406080100Days since 100th case010k20k30k40k50k60kCumulative known casessince 100th caseAustraliaDenmarkFinlandNorwaySweden

But the casualty list of the Swedish Model is growing. More than 65,000 people have been infected with COVID-19.

Unlike Sweden, the other Nordic countries swiftly imposed tough mandatory lockdowns. Today, the Swedes have double the number of confirmed cases as Denmark, Norway and Finland combined.

And the fatality rate is even worse — more than 5,200 have died from a population of just 10 million. That's five times the combined total of the other Nordic nations.

Sweden's COVID-19 deaths per million vs Nordic neighbours

020406080100Days since 1st death0100200300400500Cumulative known deaths permillion people since 1st deathAustraliaDenmarkFinlandNorwaySweden

Tegnell admits there have been failures. One of the relatively few government directives was to lock down aged care facilities. He concedes the order came too late and casualties have been high — of the 5,000 deaths, 88 per cent have been people aged over 70, many of them in retirement homes.

Exactly how many elderly Swedes have died of COVID-19 has been difficult to determine. During the first couple of months of the crisis, there was a lack of comprehensive testing making it hard to know the cause of death.

"We are doing a lot of things now and we see that the number of cases in those facilities is slowly falling," says Tegnell, "so we believe that even that can be rectified and our strategy will be even more sustainable."

To keep the COVID-19 outbreak under control we need to keep growth factor below 1.0

Sweden's current
growth factor is
0.98
May 14
Jun 27

Average 935 cases per day for the past 7 days

HIGHEST
1.65 Mar 4th
LOWEST
0.97 May 7th
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To date, around 7 per cent of Sweden's population has been infected and developed COVID-19 antibodies, well short of the so-called "herd immunity" rate of at least 70 per cent, where so many people in the community become infected that the virus is theoretically controlled.

Swedish public health experts, critical of the Tegnell plan, say herd immunity was always the implied cornerstone of the national strategy. But Tegnell denies this was ever his goal.

He says his strategy has been misunderstood and championed by opponents of lockdowns who support a herd-immunity solution. As a result, he's getting an international pummelling.

"Sometimes I feel like a personal punchbag. But that's OK, I can live with that."

Say it with ink

A man is tattooed.
Stockholm tattoo artist Zashay Tastas is among Anders Tegnell's legion of fans in Sweden for his coronavirus response plan.(Foreign Correspondent)

Tegnell has become an unlikely Swedish hero. His regular briefings have brought him national fame and huge popularity. A rapper has sung his praises; his image adorns t-shirts and poster art.

Stockholm tattoo artist Zashay Tastas is a big fan. Tegnell, he says, radiates a kind of dad-like Swedish cool.

"He's kind of like the typical Swede," says Zashay, as he powers up the ink gun and gets to work on a client.

"He's calm — he has big-dick calmness over him — and he's very competent, not braggy about it."

The customer in the chair is mining-equipment salesman Gustav Agerblad, and he's getting some more work done to the inked Tegnell portrait that now adorns his arm.

A tattoo of Anders Tegnell's face.
Gustav Angerblad has been so impressed with Anders Tegnell's pandemic response he's had his face inked onto his arm.(Foreign Correspondent)

"I got it 'cause Anders Tegnell has been doing a really good job," says Gustav.

"When I watch the news and he's standing there, I feel that we are in good hands. Before this crisis, he was like nobody for the Swedish people. Now he's a rock star."

Opinion polls confirm it's a sentiment shared by many Swedes. Tegnell's popularity has dipped slightly in recent weeks but he still enjoys majority support. Most don't want a tattoo, but they appreciate the Tegnell philosophy: that Swedes can be trusted to do the right thing.

"I want to have the free will of my own and I really put the high price on that," says Gustav.

"To have a choice to go to the store when I want; to have a choice to work."

YOUTUBERap artist Shazaam's tribute to Anders Tegnell.

And there's not much empathy in the tattoo parlour for the collateral damage of the Swedish Model — the growing list of casualties.

"Yeah, bad luck I guess," Gustav says.

"Sorry that sounds harsh, but I mean I would rather have it like we have in Sweden than having it like in Poland, or in China, or in Lombardy in Italy, where they have closed down societies almost."

A Swedish Model family

Late Spring in Stockholm and the streets and parks are full of Swedes basking in the sunshine.

Despite the social-distancing signs on paths, bus stops and cafe walls, the freedoms of the pre-COVID world never really went away here. The bars and restaurants never closed and the gyms remain open.

People sit drinking beer in Stockholm.
For a few days in June, Sweden had one of the world's highest per capita death rates. With a few exceptions, the country has remained mostly open during the pandemic.(Reuters: Anders Wiklund)

For Stockholm couple Mina and Mathias, ensuring they and their three young children stay safe means following the Tegnell plan, with its emphasis on personal responsibility.

"I think it worked really well in the beginning when COVID came," says Mina.

Mathias and Mina pose with their daughter.
Mina has already had COVID-19 and Mathias suspects he may also have been infected. But Sweden has offered very little community testing so getting a diagnosis has been difficult.(Foreign Correspondent)

"People planned their grocery shopping better. I would think there weren't as many people at the shops.

"I think it's good that we have a more open, relaxed attitude. I don't believe in shutting down societies but feel safe in the Swedish Model still."

Mina works as an assistant director of an aged care facility and has just recovered from COVID. To protect patients and staff, she self-isolated at home when her symptoms first appeared.

Mina is relieved to have had only a mild case. Her partner Mathias also suspects he's had COVID, but confirming a diagnosis was difficult.

"I don't know if I've had it, but I think so," says Mathias.

"You live close to each other in a family and I've had a cold and a bit of a sore throat … nothing serious but that may have been a very mild version of corona. You hope so but you don't know."

Until recently, Sweden did very little community COVID testing. With a nationwide shortage of kits, testing was mainly reserved for the very sick who'd been hospitalised, or those in high-risk jobs like Mina.

Mina and Mathias.
Stockholm couple Mina and Mathias say compliance with the Tegnell plan was strong to begin with but has been fading with the onset of the Swedish summer.(Foreign Correspondent)

Despite much of Sweden staying open for business during the pandemic, GDP is predicted to fall by 7 per cent this year. It's a better forecast than the UK or Italy can expect, but really no better than Sweden's Nordic neighbours who did impose tough, early lockdowns.

Yet Mina believes the national economy would have taken a bigger hit without the Swedish Model.

"Of course there are individuals who have been affected more severely in Sweden, who have actually lost their jobs," she says.

"But I think that Sweden will gain its feet faster than many other countries."

Stockholm's forgotten people

In a neat cemetery in Stockholm's northern suburbs, it's easy to spot the recent COVID graves. The green manicured lawns are ruptured by mounds of fresh earth, covered in wilting flowers and treasured mementos of lives extinguished.

Mirrey Gourie kneels at her father's grave.
Mirrey Gourie's father Josef died of COVID-19 the day before his 64th birthday.(Foreign Correspondent)

It's here that a young woman, Mirrey Gourie, comes every day to visit the resting place of her father Josef, who died of coronavirus the day before his 64th birthday.

"I usually walk here in the morning, early, because then there are less people here … then I arrive, visit my dad of course and think, 'How could this have happened?'" she says.

Mirrey Gourie.
Mirrey believes her father would still be alive if the Swedish Government had moved more quickly to ban large gatherings during the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak.(Foreign Correspondent)

Fit and active, Josef was goalkeeper on the national soccer team of his native Syria before he emigrated to Sweden in 1990 with his wife and three children. When the pandemic struck, Mirrey says he was carefully following the recommendations issued by Tegnell and his team.

"Dad only moved between his home, his work and the church. The 15th of March he was at church and we found out he became sick after that ceremony," she recalls.

Just days later, the Government recommended the maximum number for a gathering be reduced from 500 to 50. But it was too late for Josef.

Mirrey believes had those measures been brought in sooner, her father would still be alive.

Scattered across the cemetery are other lonely figures, paying their respects, attempting to process the tragedy that's consumed their lives.

"Here we see really new graves and the majority have died from COVID 19," she says. "I think this is the proof about what really is happening in our society in Sweden."

During the past decade there's been a dramatic shift in Sweden's demographic. A quarter of the population now has a migrant background. The predominately migrant area here in Stockholm's north is one of the worst-hit in Sweden, with COVID infection rates up to three times higher than the greater Stockholm region.

Mirrey Gourie waters the flowers on her father's grave.
Mirrey's family live in the suburbs of northern Stockholm, a migrant area with infection rates up to three times higher than the rest of Stockholm.(Foreign Correspondent)

Writer and activist Nuri Kino is drawing attention to the devastating effects of the pandemic on foreign-born Swedes, particularly in his own community of Assyrian Christians.

Unlike Nordic Swedes, who largely live in small family groups or alone, migrant households often comprise three generations under one roof.

Nuri blames the health authorities for misunderstanding the different social structures of migrant communities and for failing to effectively warn of the dangers.

Nuri Kino.
Activist and author Nuri Kino says Swedish authorities failed to understand migrant communities.(Foreign Correspondent)

"The information that came to immigrant towns, districts or areas, was delayed, confusing and even in wrong languages," Nuri says.

"We socialise differently, the culture is different to the Swedish ethnic culture when it comes to social life. It's another of the reasons why we were more affected by the coronavirus, unfortunately."

In stark contrast to confident, bustling downtown Stockholm, the streets in Nuri's old neighbourhood are now eerily quiet. People keep their distance and turn away as they see him approach.

"If I come here, I always meet relatives, friends, children of friends. People have become aware of the situation and are more cautious," he says.

"Everyone here more or less knows someone who has passed away."

 

Critics of the plan

On first impressions, Anders Tegnell and Stefan Hanson seem to have a lot in common. Both are esteemed Swedish health scientists, in late middle age, who display a no-nonsense approach in getting on with their work.

But when it comes to the Swedish Model, they are diametrically opposed.

Stefan Hanson.
Stefan Hanson was among a group of leading doctors, virologists and researchers who called for the Swedish Model to be replaced by a "go hard, go early" strategy.(Foreign Correspondent)

Hanson, an infectious disease expert, was among a group of 22 leading doctors, virologists and researchers who called for the Swedish Model to be replaced by the Go Hard, Go Early approach of other Nordic countries.

"The problem is that I don't see any science — there is no scientific background to this strategy," Hanson says.

"I woke up in the night because I was thinking, 'This is terrible, people are dying and we are letting the infection spread.'

"From the very start they didn't believe it was going to become an epidemic in Sweden so they didn't take any measures to be prepared for an epidemic. The attitude is taking things too lightly and not to cause panic."

Hanson has turned his protest into action. In a suburban Stockholm shopping centre in a migrant neighbourhood, Hanson and his team have set up a clinic in an open space next to the first-floor escalators.

A nurse wearing a face shield and full protective gear sets up a table and unpacks equipment. The clinic offers an immediate test for COVID-19 antibodies, confirming if patients have already caught the virus.

Stefan Hanson wearing PPE.
Stefan Hanson runs a coronavirus testing desk in a Stockholm shopping centre with kits donated by a local university.(Foreign Correspondent)

For months, the Government did very little community testing, so Hanson started collaborating with a local university that provides the small kits that analyse blood samples while people wait.

A small crowd soon gathers, all quietly waiting their turn. In the eagerness to get tested, social distancing is forgotten.

"Positive!" declares Hanson to a young Somali man. "I knew it!" says the clearly relieved Somali, "That's why I spent about a month in my room." He thanks the team then promptly walks out of the shopping centre

"So the last gentleman — a Somali gentleman — he had symptoms three months ago and he has weak positivity," Hanson says, watching his test subject disappear.

12402482-4x3-xlarge.jpg?v=3
About 8 per cent of those tested in the shopping centre returned positive results.(Foreign Correspondent)

There's no sense of drama nor heightened precautions around those who test positive. The lucky few who manage to get tested are relieved.

"People just want to know … we come here and they just show up. We are just trying to do this to be able to show that what the Government is doing is not sufficient. They have to do more."

Hanson says more testing will mean more contact tracing due to laws making it obligatory for authorities to follow up confirmed cases.

Today, there are just 24 kits and all too soon, the team starts to turn people away.

"That was 24 approved and three positives out of 24, so some 8 or 9 per cent [infection rate]," Hanson notes.

"We could test everybody here, for sure, we could test the whole day."

Swedish authorities are now, belatedly ramping up a national COVID-19 testing campaign, but for Stefan Hanson, it's too little, too late.

As he pulls off his face shield and packs up, Hanson's stoic facade slips just for a moment, in bitter reflection.

"Herd immunity is very far … and so many dead. The Government is doing nothing, just standing there and doing nothing."

Watch Foreign Correspondent's 'The Swedish Model' tonight at 8pm on ABC TV and iview, and streaming live on Facebook and YouTube.

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Meanwhile contamination in Sweden according to the Johns Hopkins GIS.
807326631_Coronasweden.PNG.1656e5f953dc7a5c57dc0827eb4e6836.PNG

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On 6/30/2020 at 10:21 AM, The Dark Knight said:

....."Herd immunity is very far … and so many dead. The Government is doing nothing, just standing there and doing nothing."

So true but an undeniable fact neither addressed in that article and nor by the Swedish Govt, though I suspect appreciated by thinking Swedes, being the country dodged a bullet.

Thinking like many at first that ConVid shared similarities with prior SARS when it clearly doesn't. Sweden was saved by a "R" rate or "reproduction" number outcome around 1/6th that expected nationally (higher in urban areas) killing the "mitigation" only or "natural/herd immunity" concept dead. It relied on more than 60% of pop to be initially infected.

That lower "R" rate is against a fatality rate or more precisely a Infected Fatality Rate (IFR) around 6 times higher than was expected. That would have been devastating if the original "R" held up.

The "upside" is the Swedish experiment has produced some very valuable information. The "dumb side" is many like the US and UK have ignored the Swedish experiment. They are currently ploughing on reopening yet only marginally better equipped than they were 4 months ago to manage outcomes and which have transpired to be very fucking ordinary.

Doubling down on dumb.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So true but an undeniable fact neither addressed in that article and nor by the Swedish Govt, though I suspect appreciated by thinking Swedes, being the country dodged a bullet.

Thinking like many at first that ConVid shared similarities with prior SARS when it clearly doesn't. Sweden was saved by a "R" rate or "reproduction" number outcome around 1/6th that expected nationally (higher in urban areas) killing the "mitigation" only or "natural/herd immunity" concept dead. It relied on more than 60% of pop to be initially infected.

That lower "R" rate is against a fatality rate or more precisely a Infected Fatality Rate (IFR) around 6 times higher than was expected. That would have been devastating if the original "R" held up.

The "upside" is the Swedish experiment has produced some very valuable information. The "dumb side" is many like the US and UK have ignored the Swedish experiment. They are currently ploughing on reopening yet only marginally better equipped than they were 4 months ago to manage outcomes and which have transpired to be very fucking ordinary.

Doubling down on dumb.

A lesson in the value of social distancing, accidental or otherwise.

 

Now, if only there was more certain knowledge of immune responses and reinfection risks.....

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20 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Now, if only there was more certain knowledge of immune responses and reinfection risks.....

Funny you should mention that Ease.

A very brief but further nail in the Swedish or Mitigation/Natural Immunity coffin at least for the foreseeable future.

From Prof Francois Balloux

Over the last weeks, a substantial amount of new evidence has become available about immunity to #SARSCoV2.

- So we have a virus with a low "R" rate and high "IFR" not lending itself to the Swedish strategy.

- "Suppression" strategies like social distancing work. The Swedes lucky to have a natural inclination and demographic towards that. 

- However there is evidence it has become more infectious, though not more severe.

- An infection-blocking vaccine would require a good antibody response. A vaccine that only elicits T-cell-immunity would be protective long-term against severe symptoms in those vaccinated, but would not allow getting rid of it.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Funny you should mention that Ease.

A very brief but further nail in the Swedish or Mitigation/Natural Immunity coffin at least for the foreseeable future.

From Prof Francois Balloux

Over the last weeks, a substantial amount of new evidence has become available about immunity to #SARSCoV2.

- So we have a virus with a low "R" rate and high "IFR" not lending itself to the Swedish strategy.

- "Suppression" strategies like social distancing work. The Swedes lucky to have a natural inclination and demographic towards that. 

- However there is evidence it has become more infectious, though not more severe.

- An infection-blocking vaccine would require a good antibody response. A vaccine that only elicits T-cell-immunity would be protective long-term against severe symptoms in those vaccinated, but would not allow getting rid of it.

Anything which drops the cfr to under 0.1% is a positive.....

 

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3 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Anything which drops the cfr to under 0.1% is a positive.....

 

That is never happenng. CFR is not IFR. Very common mistake.

An infection is when the flu virus gets into the body. The infection can be strong, mild or even asymptomatic. 

A case is when someone gets sick enough to be hospitalised or diagnosed in a medical environment.

Statistics published as "cases" when they are "infections" has added to the confusion.

The IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are accurately attributed to either the infected or the non-infected class. That also problematic as a lot of deaths are consequential and some countries only record deaths as CoVid with a test to confirm.

IFR for the flu is around 0.1%.

CoVid IFR range is currently sitting at 0.2% to 1.5% with a weighted mean around 0.64% or around 6 times higher. Range is large as number of asymptomatic difficult to nail and things like mortality/age figures differ between countries and studies come from different countries. For example US age lower than UK with more deaths in 50yo range even though the proportion of nursing home deaths similiar and ratio of pop over 65 while lower is close.

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36 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

That is never happenng. CFR is not IFR. Very common mistake.

An infection is when the flu virus gets into the body. The infection can be strong, mild or even asymptomatic. 

A case is when someone gets sick enough to be hospitalised or diagnosed in a medical environment.

Statistics published as "cases" when they are "infections" has added to the confusion.

The IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are accurately attributed to either the infected or the non-infected class. That also problematic as a lot of deaths are consequential and some countries only record deaths as CoVid with a test to confirm.

IFR for the flu is around 0.1%.

CoVid IFR range is currently sitting at 0.2% to 1.5% with a weighted mean around 0.64% or around 6 times higher. Range is large as number of asymptomatic difficult to nail and things like mortality/age figures differ between countries and studies come from different countries. For example US age lower than UK with more deaths in 50yo range even though the proportion of nursing home deaths similiar and ratio of pop over 65 while lower is close.

Not picking a fight but I think your covid figures are off. Because i don't think asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed cases are as high as your figures suggest.

This link mentions flu cfr of 0.1%, which is why I posted the number.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/03/05/sars-cov-2-coronavirus-case-fatality-ratio/

 

It's an old source for covid data......

 

As I reread your post to which I responded to, I see you mentioned IFR. So my mention of cfr maybe a source of confusion......

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4 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Not picking a fight but I think your covid figures are off. Because i don't think asymptomatic cases or   undiagnosed cases are as high as your figures suggest...

As I reread your post to which I responded to, I see you mentioned IFR. So my mention of cfr maybe a source of confusion......

See my 2nd 3rd sentance..."CFR is not IFR. Very  common mistake."

Asymptomatic cases lower don't raise mortality rate and are not included in CFR calcs, only for IFR  hence why IFR mortality rate is lower. It was as you indicate the lower proportion of asymptomatic cases than expected is what increased the IFR. See diagram.

BTW your cites reference to 0.1% wrongly states that is CFR. 0.1% is more like the IFR of a very bad flu season, seasonal less than that.

file-20200314-50556-4utjc5.jpg

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https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/self-inflicted-wound-sweden-has-become-the-world-s-pandemic-cautionary-tale-20200708-p55a04.html

 

Self-inflicted wound': Sweden has become the world’s pandemic cautionary tale

By Peter S. Goodman

 

Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighbouring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden's economy has fared little better.

Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions, but its economy has suffered a similar fate to its neighbours.

Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions, but its economy has suffered a similar fate to its neighbours.CREDIT:AP

"They literally gained nothing," said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "It's a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains."

The results of Sweden's experience are relevant well beyond Scandinavian shores. In the United States, where the virus is spreading with alarming speed, many states have — at President Donald Trump's urging — avoided lockdowns or lifted them prematurely on the assumption that this would foster economic revival, allowing people to return to workplaces, shops and restaurants.

 

In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson — previously hospitalised with COVID-19 — reopened pubs and restaurants last weekend in a bid to restore normal economic life.

Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden's grim result — more death and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and pay cheques is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.

There is just no questioning and no willingness from the Swedish government to really change tack, until it's too late. Which is astonishing, given that it's been clear for quite some time that the economic gains that they claim to have gotten from this are just nonexistent.

Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open. By contrast, Denmark and Norway opted for strict quarantines, banning large groups and locking down shops and restaurants.

More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organisation. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 per cent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.

 

The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden's approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbours.

Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven has faced a lot of scepticism over the country's approach to the pandemic.

Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven has faced a lot of scepticism over the country's approach to the pandemic.CREDIT:AP

Sweden's central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 per cent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 per cent. The unemployment rate jumped to 9 per cent in May from 7.1 per cent in March. "The overall damage to the economy means the recovery will be protracted, with unemployment remaining elevated," Oxford Economics concluded in a recent research note.

This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1 per cent this year and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6 per cent in May from 4.1 per cent in March.

In short, Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains.

 

The coronavirus does not stop at national borders. Despite the government's decision to allow the domestic economy to roll on, Swedish businesses are stuck with the same conditions that produced recession everywhere else. And Swedish people responded to the fear of the virus by limiting their shopping — not enough to prevent elevated deaths but enough to produce a decline in business activity.

Here is one takeaway with potentially universal import: It is simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself. From Asia to Europe to the Americas, the risks of the pandemic have disrupted businesses while prompting people to avoid shopping malls and restaurants, regardless of official policy.

Sweden is exposed to the vagaries of global trade. Once the pandemic was unleashed, it was certain to suffer the economic consequences, said Kirkegaard, the economist.

"The Swedish manufacturing sector shut down when everyone else shut down because of the supply chain situation," he said. "This was entirely predictable."

 

What remained in the government's sphere of influence was how many people would die.

"There is just no questioning and no willingness from the Swedish government to really change tack, until it's too late," Kirkegaard said. "Which is astonishing, given that it's been clear for quite some time that the economic gains that they claim to have gotten from this are just nonexistent."

Norway, on the other hand, was not only quick to impose an aggressive lockdown, but early to relax it as the virus slowed, and as the government ramped up testing. It is now expected to see a more rapid economic turnaround. Norway's central bank predicts that its mainland economy — excluding the turbulent oil and gas sector — will contract by 3.9 per cent this year. That amounts to a marked improvement over the 5.5 per cent decline expected in the midst of the lockdown.

RELATED ARTICLE

 

People chat and drink in Stockholm, which has not experienced the same lockdowns imposed on other European cities.

Collectively, Scandinavian consumers are expected to continue spending far more robustly than in the United States, said Thomas Harr, global head of research at Danske Bank, emphasising those nations' generous social safety nets, including national health care systems. Americans, by contrast, tend to rely on their jobs for health care, making them more cautious about their health and their spending during the pandemic, knowing that hospitalisation can be a gateway to financial calamity.

 

"It's very much about the welfare state," Harr said of Scandinavian countries. "You're not as concerned about catching the virus, because you know that, if you do, the state is paying for health care."

The New York Times

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Deaths have been declining for a while most of them have been old people. Perhaps we need farmers or vets to explain the concept of herd immunity instead of listening to journalists who are on par with drunken sailors for alcohol consumption.

Can any internet experts explain why deaths have been declining in Sweden?

 

swden.png

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3 hours ago, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

Deaths have been declining for a while most of them have been old people. Perhaps we need farmers or vets to explain the concept of herd immunity instead of listening to journalists who are on par with drunken sailors for alcohol consumption.

Can any internet experts explain why deaths have been declining in Sweden?

 

swden.png

Don't your eventually run out of the most vulnerable to the disease? The US may be different in that a huge percentage of the population is sick and vulnerable.

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MBLyin don't need no stinking facts.  I posted this elsewhere https://abcnews.go.com/US/30-year-man-dies-attending-covid-party-thinking/story?id=71731414

 30yr old guy in San Antonio attends a Hoax Party - and just before dying tells the nurse "I think I might have made a mistake".  Sweden has a long way to go to be the number 1 in stupid.  I mean they aren't hosting parties for Covidiots. 

 

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9 hours ago, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

Deaths have been declining for a while most of them have been old people. Perhaps we need farmers or vets to explain the concept of herd immunity instead of listening to journalists who are on par with drunken sailors for alcohol consumption.

They could start by teaching you that "herd immunity" occurs when somewhere around 70% of a population are immunised (the number varies between 55% and 95% depending on the disease and who is telling the story). Sweden has had a total of about 75,000 recorded cases in a population of  about 10 million, that's 0.75% of the population. Even if there have been 10 times as many cases as reported, that's still only 7.5% of the population. Even the USA has only had 3.3 million cases or about 1% of the population.

So whatever is slowing Covid-19 deaths, it's not herd immunity. In the US, at a rate of 100,000 new cases per day, it will take 2,240 days or 6 years to reach 70%. And then it will need at least 10,000 cases per day to sustain that level (which essentially means injecting children with live virus and hoping for the best, get that past the anti–vaxers). The only realistic hope is a vaccine and until then, social distancing, masks, hygiene, etc.

As for why aren't journalists reporting on the recent disparity between cases and deaths, you just haven't been looking. For example, there's this from Forbes dated 8 July:

Four Reasons Why Coronavirus Cases Are Increasing But Deaths Aren’t—Yet

The US is now most definitely in the middle of a major resurgence of COVID-19. According to Robinson Meyer, writing in The Atlantic, June 25 to July 1 was the week America lost control of the pandemic.

What has possibly been under-reported is that we have not (yet) seen a surge in deaths as a result of this resurgence. As the New York Times case count shows, despite cases increasing beginning around June 8, deaths have continued to fall.

The summarised reasons are:

  1. Time lag
  2. Improved treatment
  3. More testing
  4. Age distribution

All of which have been discussed  in other media outlets and here.

Also:

  1. New Your Times (paywall): U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Rising Sharply, but Deaths Are Still Down
  2. Media ITE (paywall): Why Are Coronavirus Cases in United States Surging as Deaths Continue to Decline?
  3. Issues and Insights: If Coronavirus Threat’s So Great, Why’s U.S. Overall Death Rate Down?
  4. Break the matrix: CDC: COVID May LOSE EPIDEMIC STATUS, Deaths Decline While People With Antibodies 10 Times Previous Estimates
  5. Jewish Journal: WHY ARE COVID-19 DEATHS DECLINING WHILE CASES ARE INCREASING?
  6. and so on…
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19 hours ago, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

Deaths have been declining for a while most of them have been old people. Perhaps we need farmers or vets to explain the concept of herd immunity instead of listening to journalists who are on par with drunken sailors for alcohol consumption.

Can any internet experts explain why deaths have been declining in Sweden?

 

swden.png

very simple

On 5/31/2020 at 1:21 PM, The Dark Knight said:

Protecting these vulnerable elderly is an area where the country's now well-known state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has admitted failure and says is a source of "deep regret". An investigation has been launched into "serious flaws" in the homes. On this issue any lessons will have to be learned from further afield, for example Hong Kong which has managed to avoid fatalities in care homes. 

 

Sweden has learnt from one of it's worst mistakes.

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On 7/11/2020 at 11:48 PM, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

Deaths have been declining for a while most of them have been old people. Perhaps we need farmers or vets to explain the concept of herd immunity instead of listening to journalists who are on par with drunken sailors for alcohol consumption.

Can any internet experts explain why deaths have been declining in Sweden?

 

swden.png

It is not natural or herd immunity.

Falling for exactly the same reason as elsewhere, their reproduction rate has dropped. They did that artificially by ratcheting up some suppression measures over and above the natural ones Sweden enjoys. The natural ones that at the outset there caused their reproduction rate to rise more slowly than other places then caught up and passed many. As @The Dark Knight indicates their care home cases was terrible at the start, producing a high proportion of cases and resultant deaths.  They have now attended to that.

Because those ratcheted up measures were relatively less intrusive to daily life the drop in reproduction rate and cases was slower than elsewhere as that mortality chart shows. Their motivation was pretty simple. To not do something more they would be locked out of Europe and their economy murdered more. Herd Immunity wasn't cutting the mustard.

The converse is clearly obvious in the US regionally. Cases are rising in 3 out of the 4 major US regions, but the South is experiencing the worst effects.

These regions combined hold a much larger percentage of the American population than the hardest hit areas in the spring outbreak so are producing high case numbers now. 

For instance at the peak in New York that dominated the Nth East on April 15, that state hit 595 cases per million. Arizona (580) and Louisiana (568) approached that number today.

For reasons outlined by @RobG deaths have also dropped despite the surge in cases in the US. Those same reasons also overlay when cases are dropping like in Sweden.

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8 hours ago, Hawke said:
On 6/24/2020 at 12:27 PM, BlatantEcho said:

Excellent post.

Jesus, even the hyperlink makes a bold and unsubstantiated statement..."immunity long term". Current data suggests a few months of immunity, much like other coronavirii(?) that cause colds. But let's protect the economy...

I asked this months ago and received no answer, so will try again. Does anyone have any published research from an economics professor delving into the scenario of "protect the vulnerable and let it rip"?

And another question, who are the vulnerable and how do you protect them? Elderly, hospitalised, doctors, nurses...Does the definition of vulnerable stretch to those at high risk of infection due to their jobs, and if so, how do you protect them when their job is to look after the sick people that can infect them. Does protecting the front line workers include limiting infections (flattening the curve) by practicing social distancing, hand washing, lock-downs etc.

We're still in the WTF IS THIS THING! phase. Covid pandemic still has a long way to play out, this is just the beginning, excluding a miracle cure or vaccine. Noone has all the answers, but a lot of people believe the experts who are guiding our response.

Jesus Christ I am sick of non-experts second guessing experts. Dr Scott Atlas is a neuroradiology expert and not all doctors are created equal. And reading that article makes my head spin...

Q-“What is your thought on that, do you think that 25% of the cases are being hospitalized are people 20-29, does that seem unusual?”

A-“No, I think that’s counter to any other data point we have. We have a state that has detailed evidence, Florida. We see that although there is a huge rise in cases, they are almost all overwhelmingly healthy young people. They are not being hospitalized. They are not dying. The deaths are going down per day. The hospitalizations are going down per day. It’s just not likely.”

WTF?

Now you've made me cranky.

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2 hours ago, Hawke said:

All accepted pandemic strategies and planning prior to Covid-19 are based on a balanced approach to pandemic management.  There is ample evidence out there to support that.

Unfortunately when Covid-19 hit for a variety of reasons mostly political the universally agreed approach went out the window.  Japan and Sweden followed the prior agreed approach.

Our own Government threw previous planning out and even ignored their Ministry of Health recommendations.

There is compelling evidence showing that poorer economic situations have worse health outcomes.  For example there have decades of research showing a direct correlation between unemployment and health.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone recommending a strategy of letting it rip let alone research to support that.  You will find heaps of research showing that lockdowns are economically unsustainable and of little value in managing even the health outcomes of pandemic.

It has been clear from very early on that this virus hits the aged with comorbidities the hardest.  It is they that should be protected.  Yes there will be exceptions outside of that group but in the overall scheme of things very few.

Compare it to the way the world used to manage Polio pandemics/epidemics.  The vulnerable age group was those under the age of 14 but even more so those under the age of 5.  Indiscriminate mass lockdowns of whole populations was never a Polio strategy.

Where we are being distracted is by media and the reporting of science.  For the vast majority of those that are infected with Covid-19 it is a benign infection.  40% or more dont know they have it.  Most who have it are not hospitalised.  Even most that are hospitalised fully recover.

So if a whole lot of under 30's get it so what?  They actually have less chance of dying of influenza.  That's not to say Covid-19 is not as bad as the flu its just that it affects different segments of the population differently.

If you are 30 and have diabetes AND are clinically obese then it wouldn't be wise to go to a beach party or if you do then wear protection, don't snog anyone and wash your hands. Oh and don't see Granny for at least a fortnight afterwards.

You going to use polio to compare to?

A virus that was well understood long before a vaccine? Something that had seasons?  Something which was known to be avoided by avoiding contaminated food, water, sewage?

People learned to live with polio in the environment, it couldn't be eradicated until an immune response was understood and a vaccine was created.

New Zealand had an opportunity to eradicate covid.

New Zealands much better situation is to learn the hard lessons that the rest of the world has to learn.

 

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On 6/23/2020 at 10:27 PM, BlatantEcho said:

Well I’m no expert so I look to experts on complicated issues.

On issues of epidemiology I’m more inclined to listen to world renowned epidemiologist rather than neuroradiologists, especially when they disagree.

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2 hours ago, Ncik said:

Jesus, even the hyperlink makes a bold and unsubstantiated statement..."immunity long term". Current data suggests a few months of immunity, much like other coronavirii(?) that cause colds. But let's protect the economy...

Jesus Christ I am sick of non-experts second guessing experts. Dr Scott Atlas is a neuroradiology expert and not all doctors are created equal. And reading that article makes my head spin...

Q-“What is your thought on that, do you think that 25% of the cases are being hospitalized are people 20-29, does that seem unusual?

A-“No, I think that’s counter to any other data point we have. We have a state that has detailed evidence, Florida. We see that although there is a huge rise in cases, they are almost all overwhelmingly healthy young people. They are not being hospitalized. They are not dying. The deaths are going down per day. The hospitalizations are going down per day. It’s just not likely.”

Give it up Ncik. By responding at all you're letting the trolls win. If they best they've got is month old data that doesn't represent the current situation, they've essentially admitted defeat.

The quote from Dr. Scott Atlas is from 22 June, it may have been factually correct at the time but it hasn't aged well given that the 7 day average is now double what it was then.

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17 hours ago, Hawke said:

All accepted pandemic strategies and planning prior to Covid-19 are based on a balanced approach to pandemic management.  There is ample evidence out there to support that.

Unfortunately when Covid-19 hit for a variety of reasons mostly political the universally agreed approach went out the window.  Japan and Sweden followed the prior agreed approach.

Our own Government threw previous planning out and even ignored their Ministry of Health recommendations.

There is compelling evidence showing that poorer economic situations have worse health outcomes.  For example there have decades of research showing a direct correlation between unemployment and health.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone recommending a strategy of letting it rip let alone research to support that.  You will find heaps of research showing that lockdowns are economically unsustainable and of little value in managing even the health outcomes of pandemic.

It has been clear from very early on that this virus hits the aged with comorbidities the hardest.  It is they that should be protected.  Yes there will be exceptions outside of that group but in the overall scheme of things very few.

Compare it to the way the world used to manage Polio pandemics/epidemics.  The vulnerable age group was those under the age of 14 but even more so those under the age of 5.  Indiscriminate mass lockdowns of whole populations was never a Polio strategy.

Where we are being distracted is by media and the reporting of science.  For the vast majority of those that are infected with Covid-19 it is a benign infection.  40% or more dont know they have it.  Most who have it are not hospitalised.  Even most that are hospitalised fully recover.

So if a whole lot of under 30's get it so what?  They actually have less chance of dying of influenza.  That's not to say Covid-19 is not as bad as the flu its just that it affects different segments of the population differently.

If you are 30 and have diabetes AND are clinically obese then it wouldn't be wise to go to a beach party or if you do then wear protection, don't snog anyone and wash your hands. Oh and don't see Granny for at least a fortnight afterwards.

As a 40 year old with mild respiratory issues, who gets to decide my fate? Should I lock myself in a room while the rest of the world is free? A rule for some but not others?

The fact is that I appreciate people who understand their role in limiting the spread of infections and get pissed off with deniers like you. I am lucky, and so are many other people, to be in a country that has so far avoided the worst of this pandemic due to effective due diligence of our leaders and the vast bulk of society.

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7 minutes ago, Hawke said:

You can decide your fate.

Now you are behaving like a denier if you believe that we have avoided the worst of the pandemic.

If everyone can decide their fate society is fucked. The ill-informed will cause havoc for everyone else. How do you think second waves of historical pandemics happen and are worse than the first wave...complacency. Complacency will lead to hospitals being overrun, and then society gets dicey.

You miss-quoted me to fit your narrative. This is early days of the pandemic and society is still getting a handle on it. Anyone who is advocating for the economy over a reasonable pandemic response at this stage is flirting with other peoples lives. Stop spreading misinformation.

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

Yes because the management of Polio has some salutary lessons for the management of Covid-19.

Sorry I don't get the point of your question(s).  However your last question which is actually a statement raises a good question - how do you know the the food or water that you are consuming is not contaminated?

Yes one of my points exactly.  Although to correct you Polio is not considered eradicated.

Not a single country has had the opportunity to eradicate Covid-19.  NZ still as it.  It maybe quarantined in hotels but it is still within out shores.

 When does New Zealand "stop learning"?  Yes we are better "learners" than the Yanks but at some stage we have to put into practice what we have "learnt".  As the old saying goes "you can't live in a bubble forever."

People eradicated diseases by "living in a bubble".

Vaccines stopped diseases outside the bubble, allowing bubbles to open up.

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5 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I'm arguing that NZ's response has not been reasonable and it is "flirting with other peoples lives" - people will die from the approach.  There is no question.  Hence the Ministry of Health experts advising not to have taken the approach our Government took.

What misinformation have I spread?  Give me an example.

My opinion is that there were two options for early response:

  1. Bare minimum response to wait and see.
  2. Max response to buy time.

Only one of those has a chance of any long term success (2). The other is extremely risky for both the economy and health outcomes (1). Both could be wrong, but only one could be right. The economy will take a big hit whichever approach is taken.

I believe we can start addressing economic issues in the next 3-6 months because the Covid science is starting to be understood and some countries have handled the early days well enough to think about it, because they bought time early. The US (and other countries) will be jumping around like a rabbit for atleast another 12 months because they failed to buy time early. This will impact the rest of the world.

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32 minutes ago, Hawke said:

What's your point?  

Do you belong to the group that in the face of all evidence both current and historical that a vaccine will be produced that will substantially alter the outcome of this pandemic?

I belong to the group that thinks 200 million people will die from this virus in the medium term.

There will be no vaccine.

What sort of economy will there be if that's the case?

Do you own overpriced property in Auckland?

 

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20 hours ago, Ncik said:

My opinion is that there were two options for early response:

  1. Bare minimum response to wait and see.
  2. Max response to buy time.

#1 doesn't work either. Goods ordered in the US over a month ago were shipped next day from New York to a forwarding company in Florida. Because of their dire Covid-19 situation, it's been sitting unprocessed in their inwards holding area for over 3 weeks because they can't get the staff to sort and forward packages fast enough to keep up with demand.

This isn't because of a massive surge in demand, it's purely because of lack of workers to do the work through Covid-19 illness, quarantine or isolation. Opening up too early has seriously affected many US states and shows that the alternative to elimination or containment produces worse outcomes, both for health and the economy.

So the crap US response to Covid-19 is now affecting my ability to do business. I ordered in plenty of time and can get by for another few weeks, but I have no idea how long essential supplies will take to arrive. I'm currently working to find alternative non–US suppliers, so the current supplier won't be getting my business in future (paltry as it is) through no fault of their own.

I am nervous that Aus is opening up state borders too quickly. Limiting travel has been one of the more effective measures.

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21 hours ago, Ncik said:

My opinion is that there were two options for early response:

  1. Bare minimum response to wait and see.
  2. Max response to buy time.

Only one of those has a chance of any long term success (2). The other is extremely risky for both the economy and health outcomes (1). Both could be wrong, but only one could be right. The economy will take a big hit whichever approach is taken.

Two things wrong there because the economy doesn't have to take a big hit.  

1. There is only one response and that is early and resources have to be on hand to enact it. If not the economic cost of response is exponential, the highest costs is those that require extended lock-downs and slow exits.

2. Assumption that a max response requires hard lockowns. Lock-downs are only required for; 

- Slow response and ill-equiped/resourced responses ranging from soft to hard; and

- Quarantining outbreaks and protecting high risk persons/areas that are small localalised areas/suburbs/shires to prevent overall reproduction rate rising. 

Maybe 4 Groups of Responses assuming all adopting passive suppression such as distancing, hygiene etc. 

- Few countries have got away with no or very soft lock-downs like Taiwan and Sth Korea who went very early (borders first week of January not last week) and were prepared and resourced. Have a cultural and political advantage over the west.

- SARS experienced in Asia incl round eyes like Australia & NZ not quite as well prepared/resourced and slower so had to impose medium lockdowns, more out of caution as information grew, returning nationals etc. China outside Hubai probably sits here.

- The slow responses and leading to lock downs because they weren't in control/had no resources by these approx "act no later than dates" which align roughly with initial deaths in these locations. For Sth Europe 22 Feb, Nth Europe and US 7 March. Italy, Spain, UK and US were all around 2 weeks too late. US and UK compounded by being completely unprepared/under resourced. China Hubai with hard lock-down belongs here. Mortality Rate decreased according to level of lockdown.

- No responses and more unique hybrids like Sweden and Iceland.

Countries not scrambling to be resourced like the top tier responders are not very smart.

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2 hours ago, RobG said:

I am nervous that Aus is opening up state borders too quickly. Limiting travel has been one of the more effective measures.

Rob travel is interesting. Maybe not those that don't travel but introduces a mindset for all. Clear messaging is a key thing. 

As for borders apart from Fuctoria the other states appear to be capable of hitting any outbreaks quickly...going to have to accept some more deaths and without being harsh can afford to relatively speaking to get economy going and people off Govt support. Maybe the biggest risk is not virus but decentralised nature of management as Victoria has shown? 

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On 7/14/2020 at 12:29 PM, Hawke said:

So in your opinion which option did NZ take? 

NZ bought time and it was extremely effective at doing that. Now you lot can consider your options and make better choices.

For example, international travel and tourism is off-the cards for atleast another 12 months, what is your tourism industry going to do? What impact will that have on your economy?

As an alternative, the US tried to wiggle through the pandemic (or hoped for a miracle) and fluffed it. They squandered their time by downplaying the affects of a pandemic on the national and global ecomony and they are stuck with that choice for the foreseeable future.

Again, this is still early days for a pandemic. Lots of twists and turns still to come. It is risky for health and economy to hope for a miracle.

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