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The Swedish Experiment


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15 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

He thinks Washington State can be just like Sweden, but frustrated when he finds out on here that Sweden is very different with many inbuilt epidemic response advantages his state and other countries don't have. :lol:

Dated May but still relevant.

15 May NBC - Lockdown protesters shout 'be like Sweden' — but Swedes say they are missing the point

"The Swedish strategy is very much relying on the individual’s trust in the state," 

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This is how stupid you sound: I've never had a car crash, so we should get rid of safety regulations and traffic laws.

Im hazarding a guess that you have never had to walk into the waiting room and tell a husband, son daughter father that their wife mother daughter has passed. Because today in the USA 512 doctors or n

Everyone in this thread is probably in a nursing home. They sound like Joe Biden trying to form a cognitive sentence.    "Uh, but, cases only, g.g.g.g.go down with lock-down." 'If you don't w

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Don't forget Swedish medical community is split on there being any substantive coronavirus natural immunity which is obviously the driver behind this strategy. Many have attacked the Govt have claim last month that in Stockholm it could be as high as 40%.

"Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working." 25 SWEDISH DOCTORS AND SCIENTISTS

Note: Swedish testing is only carried out on those with symptoms so number of new cases has to be read with this in mind when making national comparisons. It's current spike appears to following the trajectory of the spike in cases in Europe. 

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Three sets of twins and a tale of opposites for outcomes BUT where today their lockdown status today is very similiar.

Starting at the top of the table for stringency today. 

US/UK - Both were travelling along Swedish route until 16 March (minor mitigation only, no/little community testing) when there was a turnaround to suppression, but both too late being enacted in last week of March. UK mortality peak 7 April and less pop dense US early May. 

Two classic cases of "late/weak in" equals "longer/later out."

UK world leader deaths per capita more than double US. Population density a issue however there is a 1st wave/ spring outbreak strong comparison between US NE only and UK in mortality rate. UK doesn't have at the moment a 2nd summer wave equivalent like the south and west US but smaller hotspots, particularly in the north.

Both poster child's for not how to do it. Both leaders have shown appalling judgement.

Sweden /Netherlands Similiar approach, same status now, but Netherlands stronger mitigation and the first country in Europe to act as a collective to engage the public. This has reflected in it having half the mortality rate of Sweden. Netherlands/Rotterdam a transport hub for Europe so this outcome very important to many countries. 

The Netherlands with greater population density and urbanisation, more mobility with neighbouring countries etc artificially introduced some procedures to make up the difference compared to Sweden.

The adherence to rules such as aged care and no entitlement and examples set by leaders. For instance the Presidents own mother died in aged care without him seeing her.

Both are relying though unspoken on natural immunity to have some effect. The jury remains out on this but looking less likely. Best examples of a middle of the road approach and where Sweden more middle than many recognise.

NZ/Taiwan - Both one of lowest mortality rates in the world, both close to normal now but their responses the complete opposite.

NZ erradication approach of high testing and shut down of schools, companies, and businesses whereas Taiwan was speed and efficiency like many SARS experienced nations. Border closures early January, a stringent coordination of state and private actors, efficient contact tracing, transparency about government actions, an open information policy and a compulsory mask policy. 

Taiwan got ahead of it. NZ a bit slower but made up with a strong but short closure.

The two global poster child's though both having a small island advantage. Taiwan however offset with proximity and contact with China and population density.

covid-stringency-index (1).png

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1 hour ago, Hawke said:

Those 25 are not obviously looking at these:

1427841062_screenshot-www.worldometers.info-2020.08(3).png.b0036b0f6f691fbaa75c065258bb6c70.png

screenshot-www.worldometers.info-2020.08 (2).png

What does those two graphs tell them which is contrary to what they are saying about mitigation and natural immunity levels?? Answer zero or in fact they were right. Their advise is now a month old. 

Try fucking reading posts and your own cites. Look at current trajectory of new cases with testing caveat. 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Don't forget Swedish medical community is split on there being any substantive coronavirus natural immunity which is obviously the driver behind this strategy. Many have attacked the Govt have claim last month that in Stockholm it could be as high as 40%.

Note: Swedish testing is only carried out on those with symptoms so number of new cases has to be read with this in mind when making national comparisons. It's current spike appears to following the trajectory of the spike in cases in Europe. 

 

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Note: Swedish testing is only carried out on those with symptoms so number of new cases has to be read with this in mind when making national comparisons. It's current spike appears to following the trajectory of the spike in cases in Europe. 

2 hours ago, Hawke said:

Does it not follow that if the infection rate is declining that the number of people presenting with symptoms for testing would decline?

The USA is testing everyone who wants to be tested and the the rate of infection is increasing.   Go figure!

 

You don't follow anything very well do you. Are you sure you should be posting on this subject?

Infection rate is determined by number of people testing positive either being both symptomatic AND asymptomatic AND those infected but not tested. If symptomatic or asymmetric are not presenting for testing (the former with symptoms that should), then their absence does not reduce the actual infection rate. It only reduces the "confirmed" cases rate.

For "confirmed" cases it is the number who are confirmed positive by clinical means incl by testing, but obviously excluding those infected but not tested. That doesn't again change anything.

The USA is not necessarily testing everyone who wants to be tested. Go read. For instance some states like Ohio require a clinical referral to secure a test.

The rate of infection in US is increasing as measured by testing both more symptomatic AND asymptomatic people. What is so unexpected about that result??

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18 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

As I said copy of 2 months old post/graphs reply to donkey and one which you then replied to then, just like now. Both graphs marked as cases to the last week of May. 

That is probably one of the reasons that recent Aust spike not shown don't you think? 

If you want to keep jumping in on my replies to donkey, no problem, but next time maybe read what you are replying to plus maybe brush up on your memory where you have done it before.:D

Err… you were the one who referenced your graphs in response to my question, I just pointed out that they were irrelevant. Thanks for confirming that.

You can't dismiss Belarus as "oh, it's a dictatorship so the numbers are fucked". There aren't piles of bodies in morgues, overwhelmed hospitals or sickness everywhere. The country genuinely hasn't been greatly affected by Covid-19 despite being a classic "do nothing" case. The biggest issue in the recent election was civil rights and vote rigging. Covid-19 didn't even rate a mention.

I thought you'd at least put in a reasonable effort at a coherent explanation beyond "read this (dog's breakfast of a) thread".

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2 minutes ago, RobG said:

Err… you were the one who referenced your graphs in response to my question, I just pointed out that they were irrelevant. Thanks for confirming that.

They were very relevant. You also forgot this very relevant bit from 2 months ago. You must have had that fall then. 

18 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is also a two month old reply to donkey which YOU REPLIED to understanding that then and even noting Brazil wasn't included. Have you had a bad fall since?

  On 6/12/2020 at 3:51 PM, RobG said:

I don't see Brazil anywhere, seems to me it should be included in "Americas" given Argentina is included.

 

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31 minutes ago, Hawke said:

They are not contrary to what is being said about mitigation and natural immunity levels.  The average new cases recorded per day is less than 300.  The R0 rate has fallen below 1.  So the only path in Sweden now for the virus is for it to die out.  

22 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I don't understand your agenda.  Can you explain what motivates you to selectively post the stuff that you post?

 

My agenda is countering bullshit of which you broadcast at an industrial scale. 

Like this you have just said about it dying out in Sweden. Reality is cases have now spiked in every single region and hospitalisations rising again. I said that, but you ignore it. 

This graph selectively also says that.

So fuck you and you're bullshit.

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It's current spike appears to following the trajectory of the spike in cases in Europe. 

 

IMG_20200811_094330.jpg

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28 minutes ago, Hawke said:

But what you state is not correct it's the opposite.  From the same site as the one that you produced that multi-coloured heroin mess from:

screenshot-platz.se-2020_08.thumb.png.cf898a84785dae8b3a0f9e43913e17ab.png

You are as dumb as fuck.

That is sourced from Svenska Intensivvårdsregistrets or Swedish Intensive Care Registry who also don't produce English versions hence English heroin messes. 

You will see that hospital data is only to Saturday not to today. 

Now what about new cases data to today dickhead or is that a inconvenient truth for you.

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

You can't dismiss Belarus as "oh, it's a dictatorship so the numbers are fucked". There aren't piles of bodies in morgues, overwhelmed hospitals or sickness everywhere. The country genuinely hasn't been greatly affected by Covid-19 despite being a classic "do nothing" case. The biggest issue in the recent election was civil rights and vote rigging. Covid-19 didn't even rate a mention.

Same Dictatorship for 35 years plus this corruption Index.

20 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

And not too brilliant either on the global Corruption Index where most instances incl state involvement, though lot better than a decade ago. I would rank China ahead of Belarus for Convid data authenticity.

That is of course you if are not worried about a President who owns the media and via that has insisted that coronavirus is merely a "psychosis" that can be managed with saunas and vodka.

A president who claimed to have caught it and that remedy worked. Same president that said his citizens had a choice of lock down and be left without enough to eat or his way. Same president that didn't have any cases published until even he couldn't hide bodies and funerals.

Yep solid as a rock.   

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1 hour ago, Hawke said:

Show me the data for the only day not included in my graphs.

34 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Spot the difference fuckstick.

 

15 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Put up the raw data.

 

I copied what you put up but a day later. You didn't put up any data. So get fucked.

17 minutes ago, Hawke said:

You've also squeezed the date axis to distort the graph - or are you using a smart phone?

I will bash my phone with a hammer and make it bigger than shall I.  

 

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2 hours ago, Hawke said:

I don't understand your agenda.  Can you explain what motivates you to selectively post the stuff that you post?

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

My agenda is countering bullshit of which you broadcast at an industrial scale. 

Like this you have just said about it dying out in Sweden. Reality is cases have now spiked in every single region and hospitalisations rising again. I said that, but you ignore it. 

This graph selectively also says that.

So fuck you and you're bullshit.

5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It's current spike appears to following the trajectory of the spike in cases in Europe. 

 

IMG_20200811_094330.jpg

 

1 hour ago, Hawke said:

I downloaded the data myself from the Registry source and it does not validate your assertion Sparrow fart.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

 

"I downloaded the data myself from the  Registry source and it does not validate your assertion Sparrow fart."

Does not validate!! You really are lying little cunt aren't you. 

Go to your link, navigate to Daily Statistics  here Sjukdomsfallfor per Dag or Cases per Day. 

Go to your link, navigate to Weekly Region Statistics here and pull down regions links in filter as per the ones named in above pool noodle graph you claim is fake.

Example.

See Tidsserier för Blekinge or Time Series for Blekinge (a Region)

Sjukdomsfallfor Vecka or Case History per Week.

Repeat that. We find data is identical with a cases spike now occuring across the region's.

And to finish of data here for the noodle graphs. 

IMG_20200811_121045.jpg

IMG_20200811_120014.jpg

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28 minutes ago, Hawke said:

As of yesterday there are 211 patients receiving medical care and 29 in ICU.  So what is the raw data for today?  

Actually I'll save you the trouble 185 in medical care and 31 in ICU. 

That's a 10% spike in ICU where you die unlike hospital. So that's right. 

I have dealt with your bullshit about there being no spike in cases too.

So job done. 

Bye bullshitter. 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

They were very relevant. You also forgot this very relevant bit from 2 months ago. You must have had that fall then. 

They were irrelevant in explaining why Belarus has the curve it has. I'll spell it out: Belarus didn't take any measures yet as a curve like the countries that took strong measures.

Despite the corrupt dictatorship, there does not appear to be anywhere near as many deaths as there should have been with a "let it rip" mentality. If Belarus had the same death rate as, say, Belgium, it would have had over 8,000 Covid-19 deaths rather than the reported 600. That sort of discrepancy would have been noticed.

Do you have excess deaths numbers, or year–on–year comparisons?

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

They were very relevant. You also forgot this very relevant bit from 2 months ago. You must have had that fall then. 

Resorting to personal slurs really doesn't help your image.

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2 hours ago, RobG said:

If Belarus had the same death rate as, say, Belgium, it would have had over 8,000 Covid-19 deaths rather than the reported 600. That sort of discrepancy would have been noticed.

Noticed? Why? Have you been to Belarus? Cool countryside and people. Minsk time travel back to east Germany. Spain found around 6K bodies in overnight recount same as UK who did that twice. These body bag critters are hard to count it seems. Belarus only Euro country still with death penalty. Minsk, the headquarters of the KGB are friendly reminders about information and the value of life there.

BTW there is an counting anomaly as Belgium policy is most deaths are Covid until further notice. Don't ask me why. As a consequence why you see their "excess mortality" actually being less than all comparables. Overcounting is rare though.

2 hours ago, RobG said:

Do you have excess deaths numbers, or year–on–year comparisons?

You are pretty keen to exonerate Belarus numbers. 

Excess mortality is not regularly centrally collected where only Eurostat for EU, Human Mortality data base and handfull of media outlets (their economists have more time to burn) are the only ones. None are picking up Belarus? That a sign? Why ? Well the National Statistical Committee or Belstat appear to be on an extended holiday. Funny about that.

Then you have Sweden and Belarus with around the same population, same number of cases, other Euro countries also same cases per capita. Yet Bealrus is remarkably up to one-tenth the mortality per case or CFR??? This in a place not renoun for either blanket testing or tracking and testing regieme to maximise case count both symptomatic and asymptomatic.

So Belarus a standout worldwide. Is the President's sauna and vodka thing working you reakon?

Then shit like this. 

- Early April Lithiuana accuses Belarus of Covid-19 data hiding
 
So I repeat Belarus mortality figures IMO are not worth a cracker, but you are free to think otherwise.
 
On 8/10/2020 at 2:13 PM, RobG said:

What are the percentages? In the second, there are just lots of curves, with no Y axis values or title for what they show—cases? deaths? postives per test? positives/mill population? Wankers per household? Perhaps there was some accompanying text that explained what they show?

On 8/10/2020 at 2:17 PM, jack_sparrow said:

It is also a two month old reply to donkey which YOU REPLIED to understanding that then and even noting Brazil wasn't included. Have you had a bad fall since?

 

2 hours ago, RobG said:

Resorting to personal slurs really doesn't help your image.

 

2 hours ago, RobG said:

 

I could not give 2 fucks about my image, accuracy and authenticity I do care about. Yeah that "fall down line" of mine is really fucking offensive. Maybe next time don't pull out your gun shooting down something and calling it "wankers" before thinking about whether you did previously understand it.

 
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17 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Could have fooled me.  Nearly all of what you post is a mish mash of data and graphics to support a misinformed hypothesis.  When you are called out on it you deflect, run and resort to vulgar abuse.  

Pretty funny coming from someone still sticking to Sweden not having a spike in cases so forcing people to demolish his horseshit. Even then don't face up to it. So you are a lying cunt no matter which way you want to slice it.

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I like how now, all  @jack_sparrow can do is attack others.

No data supports his ramblings since March.
No current data supports any of his ideas.

BUT, maybe if he calls enough people names, and is nasty enough...
well, then people will magically believe him?
It's like a kid throwing a tantrum.

It's the weirdest tactics. But, he just keeps repeating it.
Over, and over, and over again.

 

Jack, buddy, the game is over. Your 'side' lost.
Why not say 'ok, you know, I was wrong'  and we all move on?
No one hates you, the goal is progress, not 'winning'.
You were wrong, you read the data wrong, your hypothesis was wrong, and ALL the data shows that.
 

There is NO shame in admitting you are wrong in Science.  None.
No face is lost, no reputation is harmed.

It's only harmed when someone repeatedly shoves their head in the hand, denies real data, and attacks others that proved them wrong.
Accept you are wrong gracefully, and we can all move on.

The internet doesn't need more angry people calling others names. 

It doesn't help society move forward at ALL.

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16 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

No data supports his ramblings since March.
No current data supports any of his ideas.

My ideas accord with around 90% of the planet, you are the outlier. 

"We're passing 700,000 deaths attributed  to  Covid-19 in about 9 months. 45 MILLION people (45,000,000) have died of other things in that same timeframe."

So cite this of yours inclusive of a breakup for cause of death, whom and it's relevance expressed in a coherent manner to your alternative ideas for dealing with this epidemic? 

Betcha can't troll.

23 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

We're passing 700,000 deaths attributed to Covid-19 in about 9 months.
45 MILLION people (45,000,000) have died of other things in that same timeframe.

Covid is down to ~1.5% of all normal deaths in the last 9 months.
Yet it dominates the news, the internet, and has people forcing others to dress and act certain ways.
'You know, for safety'

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Noticed? Why? Have you been to Belarus? Cool countryside and people. Minsk time travel back to east Germany. Spain found around 6K bodies in overnight recount same as UK who did that twice. These body bag critters are hard to count it seems. Belarus only Euro country still with death penalty. Minsk, the headquarters of the KGB are friendly reminders about information and the value of life there.

BTW there is an counting anomaly as Belgium policy is most deaths are Covid until further notice. Don't ask me why. As a consequence why you see their "excess mortality" actually being less than all comparables. Overcounting is rare though.

You are pretty keen to exonerate Belarus numbers. 

Excess mortality is not regularly centrally collected where only Eurostat for EU, Human Mortality data base and handfull of media outlets (their economists have more time to burn) are the only ones. None are picking up Belarus? That a sign? Why ? Well the National Statistical Committee or Belstat appear to be on an extended holiday. Funny about that.

Then you have Sweden and Belarus with around the same population, same number of cases, other Euro countries also same cases per capita. Yet Bealrus is remarkably up to one-tenth the mortality per case or CFR??? This in a place not renoun for either blanket testing or tracking and testing regieme to maximise case count both symptomatic and asymptomatic.

So Belarus a standout worldwide. Is the President's sauna and vodka thing working you reakon?

Then shit like this. 

- Early April Lithiuana accuses Belarus of Covid-19 data hiding
 
So I repeat Belarus mortality figures IMO are not worth a cracker, but you are free to think otherwise.

Thank you. I'm aware of the idiocy of the dictator president, it's just unusual that given the attention on the swedes that Belarus hasn't been mentioned more. Not so much here, but in the news media in general.

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53 minutes ago, RobG said:

Thank you. I'm aware of the idiocy of the dictator president, it's just unusual that given the attention on the swedes that Belarus hasn't been mentioned more. Not so much here, but in the news media in general.

Rob I think the idiocy is this chart as per my post up thread showing the 3 twins and each having a lot in common and or not a lot in common, but the 3 pair are each in an identical position now.

1514618127_covid-stringency-index(1).thumb.png.4af5caa23bcfdd0909715bf03102f45a.png

The Swedes are not the complete outliers they and everyone makes them out to be. They had natural advantages and capitalised upon them. Their economy has been murdered no differently than their lock down Nordic neighbours. So they lost on both counts, their neighbours only one. 

Not acknowledged is they got really really lucky with a reproduction rate one-sixth that expected with their mitigation approach, BUT when IFR was around 6 times greater than expected. 

Phase 2 is now the natural immunity Kool Aid drinkers think Sweden is bulletproof. It's not, pure and simple, the Swedes know that. 

I rank the Netherlands (caveat I have family there) very highly on balanced outcome who got their shit together early and without the natural advantages Sweden had at their disposal.

The SARS experienced like Taiwan, Sth Korea, Vietnam, Japan etc who were "ahead" of it are in a whole different league. They are the ones countries need to be emulating today to facilitate normal life ASAP, but for the most part aren't.

Can't work that out. US and UK on top of that chart and stranded are effectively no better advanced today than they were 4 months ago, when people were dropping like flies.

They are now both hiding data/issuing confusing messages from/to their citizens to try and put off their day of reakoning. They both dominate the gross mortality count, one largest economy the other the 6th largest, but are a mere fraction off the world's population. They are screwing it up for everyone not just themselves. 

The natural immunity Kool Aid drinkers should be concentrating on viable responses, not drinking more of it when it is already proven poisonous.

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

Here's a mention for the 24 million who have had Covid-19 and fully recovered.

There is far more than 24m recovered world wide. 

There is probably at least 20m or around 6% by pop infected (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) in the US alone, not around 5m infected as confirmed cases, then versus less than 3m recorded as fully recovered, all according to the CDC.

Yet you plough on promoting a "natural immunity" response to a disease, scant regard to what means in the absence of a vaccine, ignorant to the science and facts like the above and a high IFR. So you do so over something you clearly are clueless about and do it from the comfort NZ of all places.

You really are not very good at this and lying about it is not helping you out, no matter how hard you try. Cunts like me lurk here to catch you liers out. 

In short your misguided narrative is fucked. That's now an indisputable fact, get used to it.

If you disagree then it's easy. You explain why is Sweden poised at around a 50% response stringency index no different than the Netherlands if Sweden is sweet? Your words upthread to remind you were; "So the only path in Sweden now for the virus is for it to die out." Answer is you can't and so pretend there is no cases spike in Sweden happening. 

Dumb as fucking dog shit.

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"Where have I lied?

I've proven you have by providing facts."  

Got a short memory there fuckstick.

I repeat for the avoidance of doubt;  "You really are lying little cunt aren't you." 

8 hours ago, Hawke said:

I downloaded the data myself from the Registry source and it does not validate your assertion Sparrow fart.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I downloaded the data myself from the  Registry source and it does not validate your assertion Sparrow fart."

Does not validate!! You really are lying little cunt aren't you. 

Go to your link, navigate to Daily Statistics  here Sjukdomsfallfor per Dag or Cases per Day. 

Go to your link, navigate to Weekly Region Statistics here and pull down regions links in filter as per the ones named in above pool noodle graph you claim is fake.

Example.

See Tidsserier för Blekinge or Time Series for Blekinge (a Region)

Sjukdomsfallfor Vecka or Case History per Week.

Repeat that. We find data is identical with a cases spike now occuring across the region's.

And to finish of data here for the noodle graphs. 

  IMG_20200811_121045.jpg

IMG_20200811_094330.thumb.jpg.350158566af15ad7fe706aec58a3d132.jpg

 

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9 hours ago, Hawke said:

No one under the age of 20 who has caught Covid-19 in Sweden has died.  Even though the schools have remained open.

Their autumn semester starts next week iirc, so we shall see if that bumps the Swedish numbers up. Depends also if they have upped their testing game, which seemed to be lacking at least according to this article: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/how-sweden-wasted-rare-opportunity-study-coronavirus-schools

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29 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I've proven you have by providing facts 

Well easy prove this up having regard to the above.

Your words not mine. "So the only path in Sweden now for the virus is for it to die out."

So "you explain why is Sweden poised at around a 50% response stringency index no different than the Netherlands if Sweden is sweet?" 

Bet you can't. 

Weasel.

59 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

...If you disagree then it's easy. You explain why is Sweden poised at around a 50% response stringency index no different than the Netherlands if Sweden is sweet? Your words upthread to remind you were; "So the only path in Sweden now for the virus is for it to die out." Answer is you can't and so pretend there is no cases spike in Sweden happening. 

1514618127_covid-stringency-index(1).thumb.png.4af5caa23bcfdd0909715bf03102f45a.png

 

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10 minutes ago, Hawke said:

There is no spike in that graph.

You tried to tell us all that there was a spike in hospital admissions and ICU cases. 

You are a like a dog that goes back to its own vomit. You said ICU spiked 10%. Case closed.

You really don't like new cases do you. :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Now you are the self proclaimed expert on everything.  Explain this.  If Stockholm is the largest population centre in Sweden why have cases there not spiked and hospitalisations and ICU cases are down to very low numbers?  What is causing that?

Sorry no Strawman allowed.

You set the rules...Swedens spike in new cases Yes OR No? 

It's binary simple. 

27 minutes ago, Hawke said:

The moment I did that you changed the subject ....

 

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2 minutes ago, Hawke said:

What's your point?  "Poised" is that your euphemism for "prepared"?

Sweden opened its borders last week.  Is that part of the stringency index?  Or is this another piece of aged data plucked from nowhere?

Stop fucking sunshine it's yes or no. 

5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sorry no Strawman allowed.

You set the rules...Swedens spike in new cases Yes OR No? 

It's binary simple. 

 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

The Swedes are not the complete outliers they and everyone makes them out to be. They had natural advantages and capitalised upon them. Their economy has been murdered no differently than their lock down Nordic neighbours. So they lost on both counts, their neighbours only one. 

37 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Not true.  First quarter GDP growth was positive while their neighbours was negative.  Second quarter is substantially less negative than their neighbours.

Do you just make this up?

 

Got nothing to do with historical GDP sunshine it is the hit to 2020 in total then going forward. Then compare that to deaths. 

If you think that made up you ring up the undertakers and economists.

0_Vy3CszYiQpwu_SBh.png

0_f_GpT6a_j320CUpC.png

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22 minutes ago, Hawke said:

BTW Sweden is sitting on 37% stringency index at the moment NOT 50%.

I didn't say Sweden was sitting on 50%.

I said around and in conjunction with Netherlands who are higher. 

You really are running on fumes here Strawboy to avoid answering the question. :lol:

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

If you disagree then it's easy. You explain why is Sweden poised at around a 50% response stringency index no different than the Netherlands if Sweden is sweet? Your words upthread to remind you were; "So the only path in Sweden now for the virus is for it to die out." Answer is you can't and so pretend there is no cases spike in Sweden happening. 

1514618127_covid-stringency-index(1).thumb.png.4af5caa23bcfdd0909715bf03102f45a.png

 

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36 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You said ICU spiked 10%. Case closed.

26 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I said no such thing.  YOU TOOK the difference between 29 and 31 over one day an extrapolated that as a spike of 10%

 

So you say now going from 29 to 31 is now not an increase of 10%. 

Were you home schooled?

 

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33 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You set the rules...Swedens spike in new cases Yes OR No? 

It's binary simple. 

25 minutes ago, Hawke said:

No spike.  Statistically over the last two months daily new cases have remained stable.  

 

"Statistically over the last two months daily new cases have remained stable."  

Really....

Do you get seasick?

IMG_20200811_094330.thumb.jpg.350158566af15ad7fe706aec58a3d132.jpgIMG_20200811_121045.thumb.jpg.701c17b5c1207dd659fcef5555cbef17.jpg

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21 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I didn't say Sweden was sitting on 50%.

I said around and in conjunction with Netherlands who are higher. 

16 minutes ago, Hawke said:

"Around 50%" when its actually 37%.  Hell you sure are free and easy with your figures!  You are losing credibility real fast.

 

Sweden might be 37% but the Netherlands is higher.  The point is they are the same. Call Netherlands 37% then. 

Tick tock...tick tock. .

21 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You really are running on fumes here Strawboy to avoid answering the question. 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

If you disagree then it's easy. You explain why is Sweden poised at around a 50% response stringency index no different than the Netherlands if Sweden is sweet? Your words upthread to remind you were; "So the only path in Sweden now for the virus is for it to die out."1514618127_covid-stringency-index(1).thumb.png.4af5caa23bcfdd0909715bf03102f45a.png

 

 

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On 8/8/2020 at 8:15 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Dark dealt with the household bit. 

So you mean the ignorant fuck poster whose own cite has the Top 10 cities containing less than 40% of the population and of those Top 10  half are around the 100k mark then a handfull around the 50k mark. Then Stockholm the capital and largest is 2 and 3 times bigger than the next 2.

The same cite that says 85% of the people living in Sweden live in urban areas, BUT most are very small spread throughout the country.

Then go and compare that to other countries on a population density and location and household basis which was in the post you replied to but don't mention. If you want to call a town of 500 people urban and in context of Covid comparisons go knock yourself out.

Population density doesn't seem to have much to do with it. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1777891 .

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22 minutes ago, impetuous_donkey said:

Population density doesn't seem to have much to do with it. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1777891 .

Takeaway for practice: These findings suggest that connectivity matters more than density in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks. They are more likely to exchange tourists and businesspeople within themselves and with other parts, thus increasing the risk of cross-border infections. Our study concludes with a key recommendation that planners continue to advocate dense development for a host of reasons, including lower death rates due to infectious diseases like COVID-19.

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9 hours ago, impetuous_donkey said:

Population density doesn't seem to have much to do with it. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1777891 .

9 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Takeaway for practice: These findings suggest that connectivity matters more than density in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks. They are more likely to exchange tourists and businesspeople within themselves and with other parts, thus increasing the risk of cross-border infections. Our study concludes with a key recommendation that planners continue to advocate dense development for a host of reasons, including lower death rates due to infectious diseases like COVID-19.

 

Donkey that paper with its conclusion advocating "dense development for a host of reasons, including lower death rates due to infectious diseases like COVID-19," is a very good example of needing to read a paper in its entirety. As Clean points out it also says "connectivity matters more than density in the spread of the  COVID-19 pandemic." 

Yet it is density attached to cities that provides the examples of "connectivity" being the economic, social, and commuting relationships that make them the most vulnerable to the epidemic outbreaks. They are more likely to exchange tourists, businesspeople and residents within themselves. 

I would go one step further and look at the demographics of cities compared to less urban environments. For instance the young who are more mobile and socialise more versus the older being less mobile and less social.

It is a clear indisputable fact the reproduction rate is greater in more dense areas and hense they have higher confirmed case numbers. Compare European countries to the US where the population density overall is around 8 times greater. Then compare individual cities the reproduction and cases rate of day NYC, London and Stolkhom are very similiar. 

In so far as mortality is concerned it goes the otherway where the more dense urban areas tend to have greater health care capacity.Therefore if the case rate favours the young, they have a far greater chance of either not requiring admission or a greater chance of recovery if they do.  

There is obviously some tipping point therefore between urban density producing more cases but theoretically having possibly a lower mortality rate, subject to health care capacity.

Therefore to use Sweden as an ideal example having greatly varying population densities between provinces, but a national and uniform Covid response .

Charts Note - Today is Day 163. Popups showing cases (Day 135) and mortality (Day 105) data for a different day is simply to be able to show today/Day163 on the charts. 

Confirmed Cases 

Note; In Sweden testing for confirmed cases only occurs with those who are symptomatic. Asymptomstic cases (if the knew they were positive) are not and even though infectious are not discouraged from working etc. 

All the populated areas or cities are in provinces with a cases on a population basis greater than the national average. Those cities are marked YELLOW on the attached list. A number of those population centres are also in the province of Stockholm. 

The two exception are Malmoe Sweden's 3rd largest city and Helsingborg. Both are in the province of Skåne (circled in blue on map) on the southern most tip of Sweden and linked to Denmark via the Öresund Bridge. With Denmark closing its borders and then the "dead end" location, the reduction in traffic is thought to have reduced the reproduction and case rate.

This anonomly in fact underpins the concept of "connectivity" being the economic, social, and commuting relationships as the drivers of high  reproduction rates and epidemic outbreaks. 

The province of Skåne in fact has the lowest number of cases in Sweden per capita than any other, which speaks volumes about Swedens natural mitigation advantages. Social distancing truly works in conjunction with closures responsive to outbreaks clearly work.

Top 10 Cities in Provinces that are ABOVE the National Average for Confirmed Cases (marked Yellow) and Deaths (marked Red)

IMG_20200812_154128.jpg.9b6fc1da1df46a91c07b774d019f1615.jpgIMG_20200812_154258.jpg.8e7f82d69dd0c9ada2297c32113a8244.jpg

Confirmed Cases per million province pop 

IMG_20200812_154338.thumb.jpg.031d7c9e438edcba315996a478cf051f.jpg

Deaths

Note; Sweden health care capacity is one of the lowest in Europe. Sweden has also one of the highest mortality rates for ages persons either in care or own homes. This can be explained by hospital capacity being freed up by moving the elderly out of hospital and combined with inadequate testing. This was the situation in England. 

All the populated areas or cities are in provinces with a mortality on a population basis greater than the national average. Those cities are marked RED on the attached list. A number of those population centres share the same province as Stockholm. 

Again the two exception are Malmoe Sweden's 3rd largest city and Helsingborg  in the province of Skåne (circled in blue on map) on the southern most tip of Sweden and linked to, but closed off from Denmark via the Öresund Bridge.

Deaths per million province pop

IMG_20200812_154413.thumb.jpg.c363b103d1d85a36265e28e6e1ceda15.jpg

Conclusion

BOTH the highest cases and highest deaths per population attach to those provinces and cities having the greater and more dense populations.

The province of Skåne in fact has BOTH the lowest number of cases and second lowest mortality in Sweden per capita than any other. For both cases and deaths it is up to one-fifth other provinces. This is brought about by it's "dead end" location to counter it having a high population density.

This speaks volumes about Swedens natural mitigation advantages, when combined with closures (the bridge) that break the "connectivity" of economic, social, and commuting relationships identified in that paper. 

This aberration is also another nail in the coffin of the concept of "natural immunity" (putting aside it has now been proven immunity only lasts for a limited duration), being viable anywhere other than somewhere like Sweden or say Japan with their cultural and demographic advantages. Alternatively countries without that, but with authoritarian governments tied with having sophisticated contact/trace infrastructure like China, Sth Korea and Taiwan etc. 

The twist is the Swedish Government is publically stating last weekend (not to be confused with believes :lol:) it has achieved a transmission rate of up to 30% of the population and immunity to be the reason behind cases dropping during June and July.

This is widely disputed. Supporting that is that the new daily cases in Skåne dropped in June and July and have recently risen at exactly the same rate as other provinces?

Putting that dispute aside the city of Malmoe Sweden's 3rd largest city (302k) and Helsingborg the 10th largest (104k) making up the more densely populated province of Skåne will naturally have the lowest antibody level in all of Sweden. That combined with the opening of the Öresund Bridge into Denmark you would think would place those two cities most at risk. Therefore it would be expected special measures would need to be applied. 

Interestingly no such measures have been applied by the Government which gives further rise to questioning the veracity of the Swedish Govt own argument and claims about natural immunity. 

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20 hours ago, Hawke said:

589497973_screenshot-www.worldometers.info-2020.08(4).png.b70b3a22ba305a364ab435dc6a8cf73a.png

screenshot-www.worldometers.info-2020.08 (5).png

Keep posting. Hard for the stupid to hide from data but Lord knows they do. Sweden got it right. 

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11 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Yes they got it mostly right however they admit, in hindsight, that they underestimated the state of their aged care facilities.  There is increasing evidence that community immunity is happening. 

The amazing thing is most everyone everywhere under estimated the risk to the elderly and especially those in aged care facilities. Freaking virus 101. What Cuomo did in NY should be criminal. 

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

There is increasing evidence that community immunity is happening. 

"There is increasing evidence that community  immunity is happening."

Authoritive cite your claim OR horseshit. Take your pick.

Hint you have to better this. "A study in late May suggested that 6.1% of Sweden’s population had developed coronavirus antibodies. In June, data from Swedens Public Health Agency indicated that about 10% of people in Stockholm, the worst-affected region, had antibodies." 

Then add in studies have shown any immunity only lasts a short time.

0_GlMiQGVLYF6oPAh-.png

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

Sweden's view is "why test people who don't have symptoms?"  The rationale is to identify those who may be at risk from more serious complications and to reduce transmission.  

Swedens rationale is Sweden's rationale. The point has to be made to ensure Sweden's testing regieme is different to other countries when comparing confirmed cases data between countries. 

3 hours ago, Hawke said:

Therefore it is pointless testing otherwise healthy individuals.

How do you know their not infected unless you test? Magic?

You don't believe in the contact/trace strategy that is employed by countries who are the most sucessfull PLUS not closed down. You are an outlier.

Finally if you are not contact/trace/testing how can you possibly know what the level of antibodies there are in the community other than modelling having a lower level of accuracy?

Sweden shits it's pants when that question is asked.  

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

The point about cultural or demographic advantage may well be true however it does not negate community immunity as a strategy.  It just means in some countries different intervention strategies need to be incorporated alongside a policy of suppression

Cultural or demographic advantage is not may well be true, it IS TRUE. Sweden's cultural and demographic and Japan cultural only I have cited as two standouts. They both haven't closed down hard. 

Why then has Sweden got a such a high mortality rate compared to Japan? Answer is time/resources. Their response was far quicker and they were better resourced being SARS experienced.

Different intervention strategies are being incorporated alongside a policy of suppression (natural or imposed), even in Sweden. Your point?

3 hours ago, Hawke said:

It is hard to work out what your argument is here other than a complete rambling of nothing.  However you appear to be confused over the difference between latent immunity and acquired immunity.  

The bridge closure made Skåne a "dead end" (the north the other "dead end", making entire country also a "dead end") with lowest confirmed cases of any province in the country, despite its density. Ever think comprehension might be your problem?

I'm not confused. I cite, you don't.

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22 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Because complete contact-trace is impossible to achieve.  

So you say contact/trace didn't work in say Taiwan (7 deaths) or Sth Korea (305 deaths) or even China (but late) who all adopted a HIGH level of contact/trace as part of cooperative strategies very early and didn't close down hard.

You are fucking insane.

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And some more insanity.

51 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Cultural or demographic advantage is not may well be true, it IS TRUE. Sweden's cultural and demographic and Japan cultural only I have cited as two standouts. They both haven't closed down hard. 

Why then has Sweden got a such a high mortality rate compared to Japan? Answer is time/resources. Their response was far quicker and they were better resourced being SARS experienced.

42 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Your "answer" is not correct.  Many researchers are not sure why Japan has apparently a "better record."  Even Japan is not sure.  However what is clear with the Japanese population is that they have a healthier aged population than many countries especially the USA.  They are not a close contact type of people and washing hands is part of their culture.

 

So you AGREE cultural is a reason behind Japans success like Sweden;  "They are not a close contact type of people and washing hands is part of their culture.... is that they have a healthier aged population " BUT you ALSO say "Your "answer" is not correct.  Many researchers are not sure why Japan has apparently a "better record."" 

Is this some sort of secret argument with yourself contest you are running? :lol:

Of course you can you cite "these many researchers" you talk of who DISREGARD both those cultural reasons PLUS Japan acting quickly and being SARS experienced as reasons behind their success?? 

Common chop chop.. should not take you long to post a link to even one of your "many researchers" that state this claim of yours. :lol:

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Now it gets even fucking more insane ....You are now posting cites supporting what I have said. :lol:

29 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So you say contact/trace didn't work in say Taiwan (7 deaths) or Sth Korea (305 deaths) or even China (but late) who all adopted a HIGH level of contact/trace as part of cooperative strategies very early and didn't close down hard.

You are fucking insane.

15 minutes ago, Hawke said:

A research paper on South Korea's approach:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200810141006.htm

So the answer would appear that South Korea was prepared, is less concerned about individual's privacy and has a centralised and well funded public health system.

 

And the politics room is down the hallway to take your straw.

19 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Contact tracing fails in western democracies because we have a different value system when it comes to individual privacy.  

You also mentioned Taiwan and China's "success" - I'm not sure you would find many people living in our respective democracies would sign up to the forms of Government they have.

 

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And just to make sure I didn't miss what I said (where I made no mention of "elimination") was true.

41 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So you say contact/trace didn't work in say Taiwan (7 deaths) or Sth Korea (305 deaths) or even China (but late) who all adopted a HIGH level of contact/trace as part of cooperative strategies very early and didn't close down hard.

18 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Note South Korea's approach was one of "suppression" NOT "elimination."  They just have better tools available and better preparation than other countries that enable them to suppress the pandemic to lower levels.

 

And why not finish off with this cracker. :lol:

20 minutes ago, Hawke said:

You are rambling incoherently now.

 

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1 hour ago, Hawke said:

97% of those SHOWING symptoms are NOT infected.  So what does testing healthy people with no symptoms actually achieve?

 

Actually Sweden does not even test people with symptoms. If you are only showing flu like symptoms and otherwise ok, the rule is to stay home and isolate. 

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26 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Of course you can you cite "these many researchers" you talk of who DISREGARD both those cultural reasons PLUS Japan acting quickly and being SARS experienced as reasons behind their success?? 

Common chop chop.. should not take you long to post a link to even one of your "many researchers" that state this claim of yours. :lol:

23 minutes ago, Hawke said:

You are rambling incoherently now.

 

So I guess that's a NO ...you can't cite even one researcher let alone the "many researchers" you quoted. :lol:

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6 minutes ago, Hawke said:

It isn't politics that I'm talking. 

35 minutes ago, Hawke said:

So the answer would appear that South Korea ....is less concerned about individual's privacy......

...Contact tracing fails in western democracies because we have a different value system when it comes to individual privacy.  

You also mentioned Taiwan and China's "success" - I'm not sure you would find many people living in our respective democracies would sign up to the forms of Government they have.

 

29 minutes ago, Hawke said:

...In South Korea they publish publicly  the name of who is infected with Covid-19.  

 

"It isn't politics that I'm talking"

Really....does what you are inflicted with come with a really long unpronounceable name?

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Ogh fuck I missed the really big one in between hitting the cancel Ignore button.

For "completeness" I corrected the second paragraph of your last post. :lol:

PS. "Whackjob" is shorter if you have trouble with the long name of your disease.

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

You don't believe in the contact/trace strategy that is employed by countries who are the most sucessfull PLUS not closed down. You are an outlier.

1 hour ago, Hawke said:

Because complete contact-trace is impossible to achieve

 

59 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So you say contact/trace didn't work in say Taiwan (7 deaths) or Sth Korea (305 deaths) or even China (but late) who all adopted a HIGH level of contact/trace as part of cooperative strategies very early and didn't close down hard.

You are fucking insane.

 

55 minutes ago, Hawke said:

No - I said "complete contact-trace" is impossible to achieve.  South Korea are still having new cases.  

Here is a summary of the approach you outlined.

South Korea’s response to COVID-19 stands out because it flattened the epidemic curve quickly without closing businesses, issuing stay-at-home orders, or implementing many of the stricter measures adopted by other high-income countries. The country has shown early success across three phases of the epidemic preparedness and response framework: detection, containment, and treatment. From the outset, decision making in South Korea has been a collaboration between the government and the scientific community.

Detection: South Korea built hundreds of innovative, high-capacity screening clinics and worked closely with the private sector to ensure an adequate supply of tests. As the outbreak escalated, approximately 600 testing centers were established to screen people efficiently and outside of the health system, with testing capacity reaching 15,000 to 20,000 tests per day.

Containment: South Korea isolated infected patients, supported those in quarantine to increase compliance and, most importantly, traced contacts with unusual thoroughness. A workforce of hundreds of epidemiological intelligence officers was deployed for these tracing efforts and empowered to use a wide variety of data sources, including credit card transactions and closed-captioned television footage.

Treatment: The health system surged to meet demand, especially in Daegu, the site of a large cluster of infections. An additional 2,400 health workers were recruited in Daegu alone. Across the country, the government built temporary hospitals to increase capacity and addressed shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) through centralized government purchasing.

South Korea’s strong enabling environment positioned the government to act quickly and effectively. After its flawed response to an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2015, the government made several reforms to the health system to boost preparedness. In addition, a well-functioning national health insurance system, ample human resources and infrastructure, and constructive relationships with key institutions such as the president’s office, the Ministry of Health, and the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, allowed for an extraordinarily decisive response to the pandemic.

As South Korea transitions to reopening, its experiences may offer additional lessons about how to keep case numbers low without limiting activity.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Oh OK.  I thought they ramped it up for Covid.  It helps employers have a flexible attitude towards sick leave.  In New Zealand the standard is 5 days a year!  After that you have to take annual leave.  That doesn't help contain influenza outbreaks let alone Covid!

I don't know how long they get as I was self-employeed, but It certainly would be more than long enough to cover the 2 weeks usually needed for covid and more. The Government paid 80% of your salary and the employer would chip in the rest. The Gov would not pay the first day. My 32% social tax (deducted before income tax) would pay for that.

Rob the rich employed to pay for the lazy. is the Swedish moto.

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9 minutes ago, Hawke said:

We have that here as well.  However at the moment we are robbing future generations as well borrowing huge amounts of money.  The productive parts of the economy are getting hammered while Government departments which account for about 45% of the workforce are sailing on with no job losses and no pay cuts.  The taxpayer has to pay eventually but the way things are going there won't be many left.

Because of the record low interest rates, the borrowings are not such a big deal if the money is being borrowed in NZD. 

By keeping the 45% employed, the government is earning the income tax on their salary, GST on their purchases and all the taxes associated with the supply chain of the goods they purchased.

So it is probably very beneficial for the whole NZ economy that Jazzy is doing that.

The dumbest thing any Government could do right now would be to tighten it belt. Thankfully in Aus, the Liberal government is being very un-liberal. 

 

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59 minutes ago, Hawke said:

You are illiterate.  I didn't say YOU said elimination - I made a statement that South Korea have chosen a strategy of "suppression" NOT "elimination."  Just like Sweden has.  Except South Korea has different tools available to them that wouldn't work in countries like Sweden.

Fuck off and go learn the correct and accepted terminology for starters .

There is mitigation, suppress and elimination. These are recognised epidemic response definitions where there is no vaccine.

Mitigation - passive to enable life to continue with minimum interuption ie. Masks, handwashing and social distancing aka Sweden and South Korea. These are also incorporated in other response stages. In fact most of Asia masks are feature even outside epidemics. 

Suppression - Maximum interruption to all but essential services in varying degrees. ie. Quarantining by closing down selected places of high reproduction risk particularly indoors either nationally and by state on a "large scale" OR as a "small scale" response controlled mechanism to outbreaks after peaks.

The former widescale is your New Zealand and many countries in varying degrees at the beginning. Sweden also but only for large gatherings and high schools.

For the latter as selected control only Sth Korea right from the beginning and now countries that believe their peak has passed where R is below 1. Melbourne City in Australia a couple of weeks ago an example. Now statewide again.

Elimination - Most believe impossible. New Zealand has tried to take suppression to this level as it is winter going into summer there. Time will tell if they are successful.  

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56 minutes ago, Hawke said:

We have this ludicrous situation where the corner store and the big supermarkets can stay open but the local butcher and fruit and vege store can't!  Presumably the latter are less able to implement Covid infection precautions than supermarkets manned by unskilled workers!

"We have this ludicrous situation"

Say 1 large publicly owned national supermarket with the capital, controls, staff numbers and training and so the responsibilty and means to implement a measured outcome versus 20 small stores with the same foot traffic as that one large store. 

What's the risk comparison to both store staff and increasing the reproduction rate in the community cupcake? It's not rocket science.

Stick to your love affair with herd immunity narrative fine. Being a dumb fuck who makes shit up entirely different.

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3 minutes ago, Hawke said:

They haven't been successful.  As we now have an outbreak after 101 days of no community transmission.  It two days we have gone for 4 to 17.  What's that look like on your spike graphs?

 

I don't make graphs. 101 days no recorded cases global masterpiece. Current outbreak two graphs different result. Global comparison fucking peanuts. Against NZ data to date fucking big spike. You really aren't very good at this.

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Anyway, Sweden is doing a shit job because of the high death toll.

NZ has made the mistake of believing that it can eliminate covid without shutting it's borders fully.

I'd be just as pissed off if the Aus government had tried to take the Swedish approach as I would be now if they tried to "eliminate" the virus. What Vic & NSW had was in my opinion was 100% the right approach in terms of open domestic borders and managing a low level of infections in society. It's just a shame that the incompetent Vic government could not manage the hotel quarantine properly.

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7 minutes ago, Hawke said:

Yes.  Because that would lower the level of money needed to be borrowed and in the long term enable us as a country to continue to provide health services.  There will have to be tightening in the future because the Government cannot go to the money tree for much longer.  

Time to move beyond Keynesian ideology. The killer for Government debt is usually the costs of servicing the loans, but this is not an issue. You need to pick the time for when to borrow and when to save. Now is the time to borrow.

 

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7 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I disagree.  They only made one mistake and that is with the aged care facilities.  Just read what is coming out of the hearing/investigation into what has happened with them in Australia.  It is indicative of that industry globally.  Stuff people in institutions - charge them excessive amounts for the privilege and then hire unskilled migrant workers to do the all the shit work.

Subtract two thirds of the death toll which occurred in those facilities in Sweden and they have done remarkably well.  That said the excess mortality when the final wash up is done will show that most of those that died have died maybe months or at most 2 years earlier that they would have.

and the Doctors and Nurses who have died or suffer long damage from doing their job trying to save people?

People (voters) do tend to care about people dying earlier and do get upset. Swedes due to the independence from family that their dependance on Government has created, means they have weaker family bonds than in other countries and tolerate the high toll in nursing homes. Most other countries have stronger bonds.

Personally, my wife and I don't mind when they read out the death age breakdown and its 70, 80, 90, 100, but 50 cuts too close to home for me. 

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4 minutes ago, Hawke said:

But borrowing is only half the issue.  If you are borrowing large amounts and implementing policies that are killing your productive sector then there is only one possible outcome - an overall degradation in the standard of living and the failure of essential services in the future.  

no matter what the Governments do, we will all come out the other side of covid-19 with an overall degradation in the standard of living. 

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7 minutes ago, Hawke said:

But borrowing is only half the issue.  If you are borrowing large amounts and implementing policies that are killing your productive sector then there is only one possible outcome - an overall degradation in the standard of living and the failure of essential services in the future.  

The US as a result of the chaos created by it's incompetent leadership is taking a semi-Swedish approach. How's their economy doing? How is the economy in non-restiction states going?  

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59 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

Anyway, Sweden is doing a shit job because of the high death toll.

53 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I disagree.  They only made one mistake and that is with the aged care facilities. 

 

Isn't funny how the "herd immunity" crowd never mention Sweden's high death toll globaly and particularly compared to its Nordic neighbours.

When they are forced to confront it such as in your post they put the blame it at the feet of the elderly, and immediately make that a global issue.

They actually do so without even looking at Sweden's mortality demographic stats. That's what happens when you are too busy spruiking a religion and not looking at facts :lol:

They never ask themselves the question that if "herd immunity" is founded on Covid having a low/manageable IFR, but that has proven not to be the case, then isn't the whole approach wrong for everyone, not just the aged?

They never ask themselves the question, what would have happened if the Govt transmission rate target of 60% of the population HAD occured, not the fraction which HAS occured?

They also never mention that "herd immunity" was designed to save the economy, but that got murdered too.

A lazy, stupid and on the Kool Aid murdering bunch.

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0_f_GpT6a_j320CUpC.thumb.png.5808de30c27b77f75c2836831eb6d42a.png

 

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

Anyway, Sweden is doing a shit job because of the high death toll.

1 hour ago, Hawke said:

I disagree.  They only made one mistake and that is with the aged care facilities. 

Subtract two thirds of the death toll which occurred in those facilities in Sweden and they have done remarkably well. 

 

"They only made one mistake and that is with the aged care facilities.....Subtract two thirds of the death toll which occurred in those facilities..."

You don't know when to stop do you dickhead.

"Authoritive" cite your "two-thirds of Sweden's deaths occured in care homes" OR you are a lying cunt.

What's it to be? I will be kind and accept "sorry mistaken" by your own hand OR does it have to be lying cunt (with cite) by mine? Your choice son.

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

The US as a result of the chaos created by it's incompetent leadership is taking a semi-Swedish approach.

Hoppy Americans haven't got the discipline and inbuilt distancing protection of the Swedes. So I reakon they are going not "semi Swedish" but "full Swedish" without a Covid Condom.

The fragmented outbreak in the US being Spring generally in the Nth/NE and Summer in the South and West has kept their national numbers low. You nearly have to treat it like two countries now. See chart showing one valley of hope and to mountains of grief.

Overall mortality US 510/mill pop versus Sweden 580/mill pop put them both in the global top tier ranking with the US hot on their arse.

Another 23k in the US PLUS Sweden doesn't get a Autumn outbreak, Sweden will be looking at their tailights.

USA

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55 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

Looks like Jack_Sparrow is now an economist, as well as epidemiologist. :lol:

BlatantlyTrolling I'm also an arse surgeon with a good memory. So I do know shit doesn't come with a memory.

So could you at least fucking try to remember and respond....to avoid any obvious conclusions of course? :lol:

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

You also mentioned Taiwan and China's "success" - I'm not sure you would find many people living in our respective democracies would sign up to the forms of Government they have.

Whoa! you can't link Taiwan and China's government systems, Taiwan is a democracy that works as well or better than most of the Western democracies, China as we all know is a single party government with little regard for human rights.

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3 hours ago, Hawke said:

We have this ludicrous situation where the corner store and the big supermarkets can stay open but the local butcher and fruit and vege store can't!  

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"We have this ludicrous situation"

Say 1 large publicly owned national supermarket with the capital, controls, staff numbers and training and so the responsibilty and means to implement a measured outcome versus 20 small stores with the same foot traffic as that one large store. 

What's the risk comparison to both store staff and increasing the reproduction rate in the community cupcake? It's not rocket science.

 

2 hours ago, Hawke said:

You don't live in the real world do you.  How is the small butcher any different to the corner store which is allowed to stay open?  The butcher and his staff are trained and skill in managing hygiene - it is a necessary part of their trade.  The corporate owned supermarket employs unskilled people on low wages to serve customers.  He can limit people into his store to one at a time!  The big supermarket lets in 100 at a time who can go anywhere they want!

 

- I have made no butcher V corner store comparison. Only small versus large and footfall. 

It is not one large store versus one small store. It is comparing the same footfall between one large store and many small stores to generate the same footfall. 

You really aren't pretending to be dumb are you because you then say this.

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

What's the risk comparison to both store staff and increasing the reproduction rate in the community cupcake? It's not rocket science.

2 hours ago, Hawke said:

Well it is obviously rocket science for you!  

 

Usual story ..you can't/refuse to answer an embarassing question....so you avoid it like the plague. Gutless prick.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Authoritive" cite your "two-thirds of Sweden's deaths occured in care homes" OR you are a lying cunt.

19 minutes ago, Hawke said:

I already have posted the authoritative data.  Go look for it.  You obviously have the memory of a goldfish. ..

 

Already searched under your name and no such cite or even uncited reference exists.

One more chance, that's it.:lol:

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

What's it to be? I will be kind and accept "sorry mistaken" by your own hand OR does it have to be lying cunt (with cite) by mine? Your choice son.

 

 

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