Recidivist

Who has had the test?

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On 8/3/2020 at 4:31 PM, Amati said:

How did you get the test?

Kaiser Permenente travel nurse set up the appointment.

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I've had 2 Covid-19 tests in the last month before each of my cataract surgeries.  My local hospital offered drive-up tests by appointment, and they came out to my car as I drove up with no waiting.

She used a twisted wire about 6" long with a cotton swap at the end.  She said that it will take about 10 seconds and I will probably sneeze and my eyes will water afterwards.  I told her that I will try not to cry?  While she was doing it, it felt like it was going to my testicles, and then she twisted it.  She suggested that I should try to relax my face, which I eventually was able to do.  Although it was mildly uncomfortable, it was not painful.

I got negative results back in about 36 hours.  She said that they would only call me with the results if I tested positive, but each time they called to give me the result. . . which made me mildly nervous as I answered the phone.

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On 8/6/2020 at 5:39 PM, Shortforbob said:

nurse watches while I swab my own nose and throat. Put the swab in the bag and hand it to nurse. 

Interesting - my brother in Adelaide was permitted to do his own swab also - he reckons that because he got the physical feedback, he could do it with much less discomfort.

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3 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

Interesting - my brother in Adelaide was permitted to do his own swab also - he reckons that because he got the physical feedback, he could do it with much less discomfort.

yeah, piece of cake. no pain no feeling like youve bashed your snozz for hours :D

 

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On 8/7/2020 at 7:52 AM, view at the front said:

I've had 2 Covid-19 tests in the last month before each of my cataract surgeries.  My local hospital offered drive-up tests by appointment, and they came out to my car as I drove up with no waiting.

She used a twisted wire about 6" long with a cotton swap at the end.  She said that it will take about 10 seconds and I will probably sneeze and my eyes will water afterwards.  I told her that I will try not to cry?  While she was doing it, it felt like it was going to my testicles, and then she twisted it.  She suggested that I should try to relax my face, which I eventually was able to do.  Although it was mildly uncomfortable, it was not painful.

I got negative results back in about 36 hours.  She said that they would only call me with the results if I tested positive, but each time they called to give me the result. . . which made me mildly nervous as I answered the phone.

A twisted wire? Are they so short of long q tips over there?:o

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6 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

A twisted wire? Are they so short of long q tips over there?:o

I was a bit concerned when the Med Tech said:  I've never seen one of these before?  

Me:  What?

It was very flexible.

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Son was swabbed a week ago - negative.  Took a long while to get the results back though, 4 days +.

Wife swabbed yesterday, results back today - negative.  I wonder if they process the tests faster for oldies than for youngsters?

They have both picked up a nasty cold-type bug that seems to be going around - I'm trying to avoid it because I'm PROing a regatta this weekend and it's not going to be easy to get a replacement at the last minute if I succumb also.:(

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Tested posi last Wednesday.  A sore throat triggered the test.  A trip to my closest in network urgent care.  They gave me the sinus swab test.  Results in 10 minutes.  Mild symptoms so far.  Dull headache, fatigue, shortness of breathe.  Quarantined until the 16th.  

My wife (no symptoms) went to a drive thru the same day.  She didn't get her results.  So the county health department gave her a referral for the same clinic i went to for today.

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Sorry to hear that, get well soon. Any idea how you picked it up?

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11 hours ago, IStream said:

Sorry to hear that, get well soon. Any idea how you picked it up?

I work in linen and uniform rental, so I'm exposed to all kinds of stuff.  My family and I have been very careful, not covid-crazy but covid-conscious...mask in public and the office, social distancing... but only so much can be done.  The people we have been in close contact with the last 2 weeks all tested negative.  There isn't near enough contract tracing here to know for sure where i picked it up unfortunately.

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12 minutes ago, Swimsailor said:

I work in linen and uniform rental, so I'm exposed to all kinds of stuff.  My family and I have been very careful, not covid-crazy but covid-conscious...mask in public and the office, social distancing... but only so much can be done.  The people we have been in close contact with the last 2 weeks all tested negative.  There isn't near enough contract tracing here to know for sure where i picked it up unfortunately.

Bummer. Take care of yourself. Best wishes from Seattle.

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My supervisor reported symptoms on a Friday evening.  Went to a walk in place at 1000 Saturday.  Was told it would be like a strong wasabi hit, (it wasn't).  In and out in less than 20 minutes and had the results by 1530 - negative.  

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On 9/7/2020 at 8:17 PM, Swimsailor said:

I work in linen and uniform rental, so I'm exposed to all kinds of stuff.  My family and I have been very careful, not covid-crazy but covid-conscious...mask in public and the office, social distancing... but only so much can be done.  The people we have been in close contact with the last 2 weeks all tested negative.  There isn't near enough contract tracing here to know for sure where i picked it up unfortunately.

This sucks.  Hope it isn’t bad.  Keep us in the loop if you can? 
 

Best wishes from the Salish Sea.  

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On 9/8/2020 at 4:06 PM, Leeroy Jenkins said:

My supervisor reported symptoms on a Friday evening.  Went to a walk in place at 1000 Saturday.  Was told it would be like a strong wasabi hit, (it wasn't).  In and out in less than 20 minutes and had the results by 1530 - negative.  

You guys getting smoke up there?  We are down here in the San Juan Islands, which makes things a bit more paranoid, after a big tourist weekend.

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7 minutes ago, Amati said:

This sucks.  Hope it isn’t bad.  Keep us in the loop if you can? 
 

Best wishes from the Salish Sea.  

Symptoms have been mild but noticeable enough to make life uncomfortable.  The headache and fatigue are finally gone.  Shortness of breath continues but they say that might continue for weeks.  I’m out of quarantine on Sunday.  The real kicker?  We’ve got no electricity from a massive windstorm here in Utah.  3 days now.

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51 minutes ago, Amati said:

You guys getting smoke up there?  We are down here in the San Juan Islands, which makes things a bit more paranoid, after a big tourist weekend.

Monday and Tuesday there was quite a bit.  I couldn't smell it, but others might have.  Today seems much better. 

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1 hour ago, Swimsailor said:

Symptoms have been mild but noticeable enough to make life uncomfortable.  The headache and fatigue are finally gone.  Shortness of breath continues but they say that might continue for weeks.  I’m out of quarantine on Sunday.  The real kicker?  We’ve got no electricity from a massive windstorm here in Utah.  3 days now.

Aaack 

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12 hours ago, Swimsailor said:

Symptoms have been mild but noticeable enough to make life uncomfortable.  The headache and fatigue are finally gone.  Shortness of breath continues but they say that might continue for weeks.  I’m out of quarantine on Sunday.  The real kicker?  We’ve got no electricity from a massive windstorm here in Utah.  3 days now.

This seems to sum up coronavirus pretty well.

Most people who get it, don't notice.
When so many people get tested, then some people are told they have it - when they have extremely minor symptoms.

It's so mild in fact, people who get it are more worried about the inconvienence of a blackout.

 

Honestly, I think this is real world experiences that should be shared on this forum.
Swimsailor, I appreciate your putting things in perspective for all of us.  Hope you feel better soon.

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22 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

It's so mild in fact, people who get it are more worried about the inconvienence of a blackout.

Funni as ... looks like your handlers are yet to get the memo.

 

Even Trump said "It's deadlier than the flu, this is serious stuff.  Don't want to instill panic."

get with the program or you will lose your gig.

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1 hour ago, BlatantEcho said:

t's so mild in fact, people who get it are more worried about the inconvienence of a blackout.

I wouldn’t say I’m more concerned with the blackout.  Being quarantined is just so much more difficult without power.  It was a double hit if inconvenience.  And since I’m doing all I can to stay home and isolated I’m having to rely on others even more.  At least last week I could binge Netflix. My generator is keeping the fridge on.  And I’ve read more in the last 3 days than the last 3 months.
 

the windstorm made a mess of our neighborhood.  Some neighbors cleared the big stuff for me but I won’t get to the final cleanup until Sunday when my isolation is officially over.  Back to work on Monday.

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4 hours ago, astro said:

Even Trump said "It's deadlier than the flu, this is serious stuff.  Don't want to instill panic."

Wait, Trump's a doctor now?  
He couldn't possibly have been listening to your hero and #1 scaremonger Fauci back then huh?
 

Here is the data:CV is more deadly to people over ~65
CV is less deadly, to anyone under ~65.

The only country that has tested enough people to get an accurate IFR so far, is Iceland.
I don't know who the guy @mikewof is in your signature, but, he seemed to have been right on with the actual IFR.

 

Coronavirus has an IFR of .16% or less according to Iceland studies:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/

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10 hours ago, Swimsailor said:

I wouldn’t say I’m more concerned with the blackout.  Being quarantined is just so much more difficult without power.  It was a double hit if inconvenience.  And since I’m doing all I can to stay home and isolated I’m having to rely on others even more.  At least last week I could binge Netflix. My generator is keeping the fridge on. And I’ve read more in the last 3 days than the last 3 months.
 

the windstorm made a mess of our neighborhood.  Some neighbors cleared the big stuff for me but I won’t get to the final cleanup until Sunday when my isolation is officially over.  Back to work on Monday.

COVID-19 aside for a moment, I've noticed this all over.

My 90-some year old mom has despaired because she can't read books anymore, her eyesight. But when I give her 5x reading glasses, she actually can read the print, she's just not used to it. Almost the same experience with my old man before he passed.

Yes, some kind of convenient, affordable high quality magnifier would help, but the reality here is that reading is a strain when we aren't used to it, so we watch TV or Interwebs instead.

And then we gradually lose the ability to read fine type.

For the past year or so, I've been reading these 8 point type, tightly leaded pocket paperbacks from the 1950s. They printed then that way to keep the shelf price to 50-cents. And they were very hard to read at first. (I don't wear glasses.) But with time, the eyes and brain adapt, and now I reckon I'm reading 50-cent typography as well as an average bus-rider in 1953.

Reading books isn't just a brain muscle, it needs physical muscles too; holding the book, focusing the eyeballs, slowly scanning across the page. I handed a paperback book to a friend, a little younger than I am, she couldn't read the type at all. And she reads legal briefs on the computer screen all day long. She also uses a Kindle.

But books these days, the type is ridiculously large compared to an average 1950s paperback, it's like the publishers know that we're all gradually losing our ability to read ink on paper. They typically use 12 point type with 14 point leading, sometimes even 13 point type. Even the New York Times rarely goes above 10 point type with solid leading, it seems that people who still buy newspapers still have the ability to read.

Given all this, there is hope for us. We all need to get back to picking cheap paperbacks with small type over expensive hardcover books with larger type. And then we need to read those mother fucking books instead of reaching for our phones af infinitum, ad astrra, eleventy thousand times per day while we navigate life outside of our homes.

The alternative is three or four generations of humans who will be effectively illiterate because they won't be able to interact with a book that isn't loaded into a computer reader, or dictated into a microphone by a voice actor.

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6 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Wait, Trump's a doctor now?  
He couldn't possibly have been listening to your hero and #1 scaremonger Fauci back then huh?
 

Here is the data:CV is more deadly to people over ~65
CV is less deadly, to anyone under ~65.

The only country that has tested enough people to get an accurate IFR so far, is Iceland.
I don't know who the guy @mikewof is in your signature, but, he seemed to have been right on with the actual IFR.

 

Coronavirus has an IFR of .16% or less according to Iceland studies:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/

Thanks BlatantEcho!

Astro quoted me in his signature? I tend not to notice what Random/Astro posts, he's not terribly insightful, but I guess that it's an honor that he posted my guess at COVID-19 IDR.

I just figured that ultimately, even though it's a novel virus, SARS-CoV-2 is still just a coronavirus, and our bodies have been bombarded by coronaviruses and rhinoviruses for the last 1.3 million years or so. I recognize that a novel version would be a little more deadly than the typical 0.08% IDR for regular rhinovirus and coronavirus, so I just doubled 0.08% as a guess.

Of course, the initiate question is -- as virulent as rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are -- why don't we see 1 million or so deaths every year from regular rhinoviruses and coronaviruses?

And I think the answer.is that we do, we just don't classify them as such. The death is just recorded as age-related heart failure, age-related lung disease, pneumonia, COPD, CAIs, HAIs, etc..

And we tend not to name most of our coronaviruses and rhinoviruses, so they humbly accept the murder of their host on anonymity.

We'll know at the end of next year what the surplus deaths for 2020 were. That's when the data is released. We'll have clues to 2020 surplus deaths about a third of the way into 2021, but there will still be COVID-19 deaths in 2021, so our panties will still be in a twist and nobody will care about actual data.

But I strongly suspect that there will be no surplus deaths for 2020, for the first time in recorded history, at least in the USA. These quarantines and lockdowns and home teleworking, and lack of travel will cut deep into traffic deaths, accidental deaths, the desire to limit HAIs in hospitals during the quarantine will cut some two hundred thousand some avoidable hospital deaths out of the equation. The decrease in PM2.5 and ozone pollution will save a huge chunk of those 4 million some lives lost to air pollution every year. (NYC will likely see a big bump, but that seems to be the question for the ages, WTF happened in NYC?)

And then, at some point inthefuture.com, we will look at annual deaths, and we will see a weird dip in 2020, where the USA lost fewer people than ever.

And we'll see a bump in 2020 where deaths in Developing Nations increased because suddenly the world gave even less of a shit about broken-down brown people than they usually did, as we all hyperfocused on our own mortality in the wake of the COVID boogeyman.

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3 hours ago, mikewof said:

The alternative is three or four generations of humans who will be effectively illiterate because they won't be able to interact with a book that isn't loaded into a computer reader, or dictated into a microphone by a voice actor.

And cursive writing will be the new hieroglyphics. 

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

And cursive writing will be the new hieroglyphics. 

Some more than others ... I found an unread letter from my dad, circa 1974 or so ... his cursive requires a Rosetta Stone.

The only cursive that my 9 year old will likely ever learn is his signature.

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48 minutes ago, mikewof said:

It's a shame we didn't have this article a few months ago, we could have avoided a lot of wasted shitfighting time.

Nice read...is there a stat for refrigerated trucks per hospital parking lot/NYC? I didn’t see any mention of it.

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11 minutes ago, fufkin said:

Nice read...is there a stat for refrigerated trucks per hospital parking lot/NYC? I didn’t see any mention of it.

Did you read the article?

The doctor attributed it to the "early in" of the weakest patients.

I think there is no way to do that, NYC seems to be as disconnected from the results in the rest of the country as can be. One thought is that NYC'sv insane 400%, 500% and even 600% of its regular daily load may have come from coinfections and the now-discounted method of intubation ... I was told that they tested for yersinia pestis, but then a doctor from another city mentioned that it would be unlikely that they would have tested for pestis if they already had a positive on SARS-CoV-2.

In an aging nfrastructure like NYC, it seems unreasonable to rule it out. And in the lungs, pestis is something like 75% fatal.

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Yes, I read the article. With the amount of variables I’d say that excess mortality is probably a better measure, especially in harder hit countries or regions which also could suffer collateral damage to their ability to deliver health care.

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Done the test twice... Clean so far, fingers crossed.

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1 hour ago, fufkin said:

Yes, I read the article. With the amount of variables I’d say that excess mortality is probably a better measure, especially in harder hit countries or regions which also could suffer collateral damage to their ability to deliver health care.

I agree. Excess mortality is the best way to know what actually happened.

But we won't know actual excess mortality until mid to late 2021, until then we just have an approximation which may be a little bit off, or a whole lot of off.

So until then, we have to be consistent with our science. And we haven't done that. As this doctor notes, the idea of calling a largely asymptomatic infection that doesn't require hospitalization a "case" is an exercise in junk science. A "case" up until the advent of COVID-19 meant a "medical case", someone who is sick enough to need medical care. A case was not "take two aspirin and quarantine yourself in the morning."

Suddenly, a "case" as computed means the same thing as a "measured infection"!

Look fufkin, I'm not a medical physician, I'm a physicist physician. I'm no Albert Einstein, but I'm okay, a dead nuts money physicist, blue collar, not wealthy by any means, but I enjoy my work, and I gave a Polaris Indy Trail with a blown Subaru 2-stroke that needs a rebuild. I got half a bottle of cheap silver tequila in the bar, I got half a pack of smokes in my dented farm truck, my kids at healthy, I'm blessed by the God of Rock and Roll.

So yeah ...

I'm a physicist, I know how science is supposed to be done. I have no complaint any longer with the quarantines and the masks, I have no quarrel with the borderline boiler in the supermarket who first screams at me to maintain social distance, and then screams at me to go faster.

But what we have have just witnessed was only the barest of bones of what should be "science." The CDC was not enabled to figure out what the fuck was going on. They had the talent, they had the skills, they had the data.

What they did not have, was the marching orders.

And they didn't have the marching orders because the yutz in the White House is more worried about the remnants of his uncle's Nikola Tesla plunder, than he is the economy of We The Fucking People.

Did we need the quarantine? Who cares..it was fun, it was a memory for our kids to tell their grandkids. But now we have to get to work, because someone is going to have to pay for this "house party."

But next time? Next time we need to be at least as scientific about it as we are about calculating the trajectory of a missile that wasn't supposed to hit a school, but shit happens when we're fighting against our allies for some weird reason that needs to end too.

We just cried "wolf" and the world responded with the sky falling down.

And according to legend, we get a Mullugan. We get one more "wolf" and then after that, we're on our own. 

So the next time we cry wolf, we should probably make sure that it's actually a wolf. Because if it isn't, the third one will come in roaring and biting, and heaven help us, it might even be Yersinia Pestis, in which case it will be a die off of sixty-some percent of the population in contact with the outbreak.

You see guy, we have the potential for a major shitstorm that is actually real, not this bullshit with a novel coronavirus. We live in world that has remnants of essentially every antibiotic ever produced, to concentrations per trillion in most every body of freshwater in the world.

We are looking down the barrel of a gun with yersinia pestis, because there have already shown bacterial mutations that not only change resistance, but virility.

Virus infections? Meh. Our bodies are usually pretty good at managing viruses. Common bacterial infections? We're good, we'll lose maybe 3% of our global population per year. Not enough to go rip apart families and destroy economies.

But uncommon bacterial infections? That's Plague-level shit. Even in this era of Star Wars level medicine where Captain Kirk uses that tricorder thing to bring Princess what's her name? Carrie Fisher ... man what an angel she was. She put up with Paul Simon. Even totally chill Art Garfunfunkle could barely put up with Paul Simon. But Carrie Fisher did it. And Simon stayed alive, and he didn't implode like Cobaine, and one of the greatest songwriters in the history of music will die an.old man, a demonstration of a life well lived, thank you Carrie Fisher. I wish someone could have been there for her the way she was for him. 

I digress ...

A mutated yersinia pestis that spreads by mosquito for instance. Or even more terrifying, spreads by human contact, like yersinia's second cousin on her mother's side, Strep. So yeah, if it spreads like strep, we're genuinely fucked. It's going to be those Plague Doctors with the freaky-ass bird mask, only dudes with respirators who break into houses and forcibly take infected family members to elimination centers. 

Yeah, elimination centers. Not hospitals. Hospitals are for the 15% mortality infections like strep. They're not for the 85% mortality infections like Yersinia. And a mutation that's resistant to the hardcore antibiotics, what kind of recovery would we be looking at? 5%?

Nah, we would just dump the living and the dead into the same incinerator. The Black Plague don't play softball. The Black Plague plays streetball. And when 33.3% of everyone in your social circle is infected with a 95% chance of dirt-napping, then you'll not only open the door for those jackbooted body burners, you'll pray for which children you need to pick to live. And The Lord Almighty will shit on your plans, just like the townfolks that wouldn't come to that boy's cries of wolf. Because the Lord of Rock and Roll doesn't have patience for an ocean of junk science.

Now we increasingly begin to see what happened with COVID-19, sorry people, this was not quite the emergency that we thought it was, you can come out now, your chances of being burned by jackbooted thugs were highly overrated.

But we have an antibiotic and potential endocrine disruptor crisis on the near horizon. From now on, we need real medical science, performed in strict adherence to the scientific process.

And ladies, gentlemen ... the first step in scientific rigor is careful use of vocabulary. You need to be just as rigorous in your scientific terminology as you were when you boat screamed at your screen "Star Trek is not the same as Star Wars, you dipshot!"

Well, cases are not the same as infections. And you fucked up. And now your penance needs to be three Hail Marys and a refresher course in Philosophy 101: Words Matter.

If clinicians want to continue to be called "doctors" then they need to behave as such, and get some humility if necessary, even though you just totally saved that guy's life. (Who's the god of rock and roll? It's YOU baby!) Still, you need to communicate like a scientist, not the Medical Valley Girl. Words matter.

So get that shit right, we accept your overreaction, but please don't cry wolf again unless there is ITERATIVE history-driven data to suggest that a novel coronavirus (or rhinovirus or influenza) can suddenly and inexplicably whipsaw between a 0.5% mortality and a 24% mortality. Streetballers don't play that game. Streetballers come in at 36.5% mortality, and there they park their fat asses for the duration, until there are no more bodies for the burners.

What happened in NYC? That was streetball. There are only two ways to explain NYC ... either the hospitals overreacted and accidentally killed most of those people, or they did the best job they possibly could and those people died of a bacterial/viral coinfection with a mostly harmless virus, and a rather insistent bacteria. Kind of a Carrie Fisher/Paul Simon sort of deal.

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Our next door neighbors tested positive for Covid-19 due to their exposure trying to continue running their contracting business.  We have been having cocktails together each evening (socially distanced).  

My wife and I decided to get tested at a drive-up site, and got Negative results within 24 hours.  We were instructed to twist a Q-tip in each nostril 4 times.  It was unpleasant, but better that the earlier tests that I had where a twisted wire Q-tip was inserted half-way to my testicles.

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1 minute ago, view at the front said:

Our next door neighbors tested positive for Covid-19 due to their exposure trying to continue running their contracting business.  We have been having cocktails together each evening (socially distanced).  

My wife and I decided to get tested at a drive-up site, and got Negative results within 24 hours.  We were instructed to twist a Q-tip in each nostril 4 times.  It was unpleasant, but better that the earlier tests that I had where a twisted wire Q-tip was inserted half-way to my testicles.

I see you went to the same "doctor" that I did. In these trying times, we must help these struggling young Dominatrices, continue to fund their online schools to become accountants.

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14 hours ago, mikewof said:

I agree. Excess mortality is the best way to know what actually happened.

But we won't know actual excess mortality until mid to late 2021, until then we just have an approximation which may be a little bit off, or a whole lot of off.

So until then, we have to be consistent with our science. And we haven't done that. As this doctor notes, the idea of calling a largely asymptomatic infection that doesn't require hospitalization a "case" is an exercise in junk science. A "case" up until the advent of COVID-19 meant a "medical case", someone who is sick enough to need medical care. A case was not "take two aspirin and quarantine yourself in the morning."

Suddenly, a "case" as computed means the same thing as a "measured infection"!

Look fufkin, I'm not a medical physician, I'm a physicist physician. I'm no Albert Einstein, but I'm okay, a dead nuts money physicist, blue collar, not wealthy by any means, but I enjoy my work, and I gave a Polaris Indy Trail with a blown Subaru 2-stroke that needs a rebuild. I got half a bottle of cheap silver tequila in the bar, I got half a pack of smokes in my dented farm truck, my kids at healthy, I'm blessed by the God of Rock and Roll.

So yeah ...

I'm a physicist, I know how science is supposed to be done. I have no complaint any longer with the quarantines and the masks, I have no quarrel with the borderline boiler in the supermarket who first screams at me to maintain social distance, and then screams at me to go faster.

But what we have have just witnessed was only the barest of bones of what should be "science." The CDC was not enabled to figure out what the fuck was going on. They had the talent, they had the skills, they had the data.

What they did not have, was the marching orders.

And they didn't have the marching orders because the yutz in the White House is more worried about the remnants of his uncle's Nikola Tesla plunder, than he is the economy of We The Fucking People.

Did we need the quarantine? Who cares..it was fun, it was a memory for our kids to tell their grandkids. But now we have to get to work, because someone is going to have to pay for this "house party."

But next time? Next time we need to be at least as scientific about it as we are about calculating the trajectory of a missile that wasn't supposed to hit a school, but shit happens when we're fighting against our allies for some weird reason that needs to end too.

We just cried "wolf" and the world responded with the sky falling down.

And according to legend, we get a Mullugan. We get one more "wolf" and then after that, we're on our own. 

So the next time we cry wolf, we should probably make sure that it's actually a wolf. Because if it isn't, the third one will come in roaring and biting, and heaven help us, it might even be Yersinia Pestis, in which case it will be a die off of sixty-some percent of the population in contact with the outbreak.

You see guy, we have the potential for a major shitstorm that is actually real, not this bullshit with a novel coronavirus. We live in world that has remnants of essentially every antibiotic ever produced, to concentrations per trillion in most every body of freshwater in the world.

We are looking down the barrel of a gun with yersinia pestis, because there have already shown bacterial mutations that not only change resistance, but virility.

Virus infections? Meh. Our bodies are usually pretty good at managing viruses. Common bacterial infections? We're good, we'll lose maybe 3% of our global population per year. Not enough to go rip apart families and destroy economies.

But uncommon bacterial infections? That's Plague-level shit. Even in this era of Star Wars level medicine where Captain Kirk uses that tricorder thing to bring Princess what's her name? Carrie Fisher ... man what an angel she was. She put up with Paul Simon. Even totally chill Art Garfunfunkle could barely put up with Paul Simon. But Carrie Fisher did it. And Simon stayed alive, and he didn't implode like Cobaine, and one of the greatest songwriters in the history of music will die an.old man, a demonstration of a life well lived, thank you Carrie Fisher. I wish someone could have been there for her the way she was for him. 

I digress ...

A mutated yersinia pestis that spreads by mosquito for instance. Or even more terrifying, spreads by human contact, like yersinia's second cousin on her mother's side, Strep. So yeah, if it spreads like strep, we're genuinely fucked. It's going to be those Plague Doctors with the freaky-ass bird mask, only dudes with respirators who break into houses and forcibly take infected family members to elimination centers. 

Yeah, elimination centers. Not hospitals. Hospitals are for the 15% mortality infections like strep. They're not for the 85% mortality infections like Yersinia. And a mutation that's resistant to the hardcore antibiotics, what kind of recovery would we be looking at? 5%?

Nah, we would just dump the living and the dead into the same incinerator. The Black Plague don't play softball. The Black Plague plays streetball. And when 33.3% of everyone in your social circle is infected with a 95% chance of dirt-napping, then you'll not only open the door for those jackbooted body burners, you'll pray for which children you need to pick to live. And The Lord Almighty will shit on your plans, just like the townfolks that wouldn't come to that boy's cries of wolf. Because the Lord of Rock and Roll doesn't have patience for an ocean of junk science.

Now we increasingly begin to see what happened with COVID-19, sorry people, this was not quite the emergency that we thought it was, you can come out now, your chances of being burned by jackbooted thugs were highly overrated.

But we have an antibiotic and potential endocrine disruptor crisis on the near horizon. From now on, we need real medical science, performed in strict adherence to the scientific process.

And ladies, gentlemen ... the first step in scientific rigor is careful use of vocabulary. You need to be just as rigorous in your scientific terminology as you were when you boat screamed at your screen "Star Trek is not the same as Star Wars, you dipshot!"

Well, cases are not the same as infections. And you fucked up. And now your penance needs to be three Hail Marys and a refresher course in Philosophy 101: Words Matter.

If clinicians want to continue to be called "doctors" then they need to behave as such, and get some humility if necessary, even though you just totally saved that guy's life. (Who's the god of rock and roll? It's YOU baby!) Still, you need to communicate like a scientist, not the Medical Valley Girl. Words matter.

So get that shit right, we accept your overreaction, but please don't cry wolf again unless there is ITERATIVE history-driven data to suggest that a novel coronavirus (or rhinovirus or influenza) can suddenly and inexplicably whipsaw between a 0.5% mortality and a 24% mortality. Streetballers don't play that game. Streetballers come in at 36.5% mortality, and there they park their fat asses for the duration, until there are no more bodies for the burners.

What happened in NYC? That was streetball. There are only two ways to explain NYC ... either the hospitals overreacted and accidentally killed most of those people, or they did the best job they possibly could and those people died of a bacterial/viral coinfection with a mostly harmless virus, and a rather insistent bacteria. Kind of a Carrie Fisher/Paul Simon sort of deal.

I think I know when and where the other half bottle of that tequila went.

The initial lockdown was supposed to do two things:

1. Keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed

2. Buy us time to put the test/trace/isolate infrastructure in place and ramp up PPE production so we could unlock safely.

We accomplished #1. We didn't do shit on #2. It was definitely an 80/20 exercise except we did it backwards. We suffered 80% of the pain for a 20% benefit.

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On 9/12/2020 at 11:09 AM, mikewof said:

But we won't know actual excess mortality until mid to late 2021, until then we just have an approximation which may be a little bit off, or a whole lot of off.

Why? CDC are keeping track and publishing now...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Note the horizontal scale starts at January 2017.

image.thumb.png.f4d07053d7c89eedc110941b6528a891.png

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8 hours ago, Ncik said:

Why? CDC are keeping track and publishing now...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Note the horizontal scale starts at January 2017.

image.thumb.png.f4d07053d7c89eedc110941b6528a891.png

It was supposedly some kind of reporting lag between the time it takes the doctors to get the reports to the coroners and then the coroners to get the reports to the CDC. But yes, it seems to be a lower lag now.

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7 hours ago, mikewof said:

It was supposedly some kind of reporting lag between the time it takes the doctors to get the reports to the coroners and then the coroners to get the reports to the CDC. But yes, it seems to be a lower lag now.

And now that the evidence has been presented, do you believe that we're in a pandemic that is killing more people than usual?

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Back for another test last week.  Negative for COVID again, but I did have pneumonia, so I got that going for me!

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Had a bit of a scare last week when daughter caught a cold, so all three of us tested for the third time and negative yet again. Our contribution to reducing the county positivity rate. Wife and I are getting the first dose of vaccine today!

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Congrats!

My folks (in their 80's) got the jab last Friday and my parents in-law are getting theirs next week. In a few months, when we get ours, it's gonna be road trip time to see them.

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Haven’t had a test.  Given the rate of vaccinations where I live it will be months before I have the opportunity to get a shot.  I’m almost 77 years old having had 2 heart procedures and 2 bouts with cancer.  In the meantime I socially distance, wash my hands more than I ever have in my life and wear a mask.  Haven’t been off my property since last TH.

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jerseyguy, that's really not right, you should be right up at the front of the que.

Got my first jab today. Very organized in a large hall with perhaps 40 vaccinators - mine was a firefighter. Mostly old folk there as it is available here for 75+ and 65+ with comorbidities. We got the Moderna/NIH vaccine, which is particularly effective with first dose. Everyone seemed very happy to be there. They had a section with spaced out chairs for us to wait to check for any reactions for at least 15 minutes. Guy next to me was feeling hot and sweating a bit so they kept a close eye on him. About ten people doing the observing with epipens at the ready. Arm is a little sore, but it is also the arm I recently had rotator cuff surgery and I had PT this morning so a bit of both causing the discomfort. I chose that one because I need a good shoulder to sleep on! So happy to have the vaccine, by the end of the month I will be mostly immune and even if infected before second jab I would only have a mild case. Since I have advocated for deferring the second jab for three months so we can get the first dose into more people, I asked the director of our local Public Health department who was there if waiting that long would cause a problem with getting the second shot and she assured me not.

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Joined the "had the test" club today.  Mild scratchy throat only symptom.  Have been careful to follow guidelines however the company expects us in the office every day.  Now the 3 day wait for results.  Did the drive through with the city health department.  Wasn't as bad as I was dreading.  

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They way they do the test here is not like the earlier protocol. No deep sampling from nose and mouth. You do it yourself and just rotate around inside each nostril 10 times.

Our University of Illinois has a far simpler saliva test that works very well, is cheap, and fast, but for reasons no-one can figure out the state is sticking with the more standard nasal test at far higher cost.

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Yes, protocols have changed.  They swabbed my nose but it wasn't all that deep.  Waiting 3 business days for the result now.

Last I heard, the saliva tests are cheap & fast but not as accurate.  Trade-off is more frequent sampling to catch anything that may have been mis diagnosed.

 

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Depends of which saliva test. The one our university developed is just as accurate as the nasal swab. Cannot understand why it is not more widely employed.

My injected arm is a lot more painful this morning, and a little stiff. Combined with rotator cuff repair I don't think I will do my exercises today. Otherwise fine.

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Client’s client who comes from Sacramento and hot spot was under the weather refused to wear a mask properly in a closed door meeting..  now I have to self quarantine and lose a day of work to get a test.  How do I bill for a lost day because of this overly educated and wealthy trumplican could give a shit?  
 

I am glad to have Kaiser and getting a test on Friday. Still am pissed. This will be a second time.

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I had the nose swab/PCR on the 2nd. 5 days before surgery. Negative. This week I seem to have a cold & I'm debating on getting a test again. I think I just have a cold. 

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4 hours ago, kevlar said:

I had the nose swab/PCR on the 2nd. 5 days before surgery. Negative. This week I seem to have a cold & I'm debating on getting a test again. I think I just have a cold. 

Hope so!

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