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When offered the Vaccine, will you take it?


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7 minutes ago, The Q said:

Because most of our elderly are now vaccinated in the UK the average age for catching covid is now 29, the average age of those hospitalised is now in their 40s

But less than 2% of the people in hospital in the UK have Covid-19.  Note that is WITH Covid-19 not necessarily hospitalised because of it.

The risk profile for the age groups hasn't changed.

Cynically but not necessarily inaccurately you could say less aged people are being hospitalised because more have died in those age groups.

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The private sector has embarked on a major campaign to reassure the public that they will not release a vaccine until they are confident it is safe and effective. We can expect a joint statement from

As many of you know I am right of center politically.  I dont think vaccines are a political issue or at least they should not be.  My family are all vaccinated. I tried to think of how I should

You are such a bag of shit wrapped in a thin veneer of pseudo self esteem. You are a walking around killer of strangers free riding on those who got vaccinated. Sponger.

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Posts by Kate SFB aka Mikewof last 7 days = 97

Posts by Mikewof last 7 days = 0.

Fucking hard to keep up the pace with so many accounts.

EDIT: but Mikey is still lurking ...

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6 minutes ago, random. said:

Posts by Kate SFB aka Mikewof last 7 days = 97

Posts by Mikewof last 7 days = 0.

Fucking hard to keep up the pace with so many accounts.

EDIT: but Mikey is still lurking ..

If for arguments sake I was @mikewof, which I'm not, what difference would it make?

I guess it keeps you amused, occupied and off the streets. 

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covid-19-denier-irish-post-1024x576.jpg

A COVID-19 denier who previously claimed coronavirus was a hoax created by the government has had a change of heart after contracting the virus for himself. 

Back in April, Brian Hitchens from West Palm Beach in Florida was among those to play down the impact of COVID-19, stating: “God is bigger than this virus will ever be.” 

It came despite the rising number of cases and deaths across the US, which have since contributed to America becoming the epicentre of the outbreak with tens of thousands of people all over the country losing their lives. 

Brian's change of tack came after both he and his wife were hospitalised with the virus.

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7 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

There has been some research released in the last couple of weeks that show no advantage of vaccinating a Covid-19 recovered person and that those who have recovered have a better immune response to new variants than the vaccines.

So if you have recovered from Covid-19 there is no point in increasing your risk profile by being vaccinated.

Link?

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I was actually quoting another article but if you wish to accredit the quote directly to me I have no problem with it.

 

Unless accompanied by a link, that seems reasonable

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Nothing I've posted is without scientific foundation and indeed @EYESAILOR and I have agreed on many points.  

Well, except for the bit about you being un vaccinated having no impact on other people. Shows a lack of understanding of population statistics.

Now who else who posts on here has a bit of a blind spot when it comes to probability and stats?

I'm a fit, healthy 50 year old introvert. Not likely to catch or transmit many diseases, including covid. But the maths is incontrovertible, I take a 3 in a million risk in order to help reduce a, perhaps, 500 in a million risk for all of society. 

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19 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

Link?

Mikey don't need no steenkin link.

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The CDC and partners are investigating

1. Whether Covid causes myocarditis

2. Whether there is any kind of causal link between the  mRNA vaccine and mycocarditis.

With regard to the vaccine the numbers are very small. The CDC has confirmed 323 cases of myocarditis after 310 million doses of the mRNA doses in the USA. Most recover quickly. The CDC is investigating to assess if there is a causal link.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

Yale link here

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/myocarditis-coronavirus-vaccine

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8 hours ago, Se7en said:

I take a 3 in a million risk in order to help reduce a, perhaps, 500 in a million risk for all of society. 

You don't understand statistics either then nor epidemiology.  You assume that the virus affects the population evenly but it doesn't.  So go back and rework you statistics on that basis.

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It’s not complicated. The more people who get vaccinated, the greater the probability that the disease will be suppressed and eventually eliminated. The less people who get vaccinated, the Greater the probability that the virus will survive and mutate.  
 

Every month we get more data on the vaccine, which one hopes will provide data to reassure those currently scared of possible side effects from the vaccine.

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There doesnt seem to be much debate here that responsible adults over 40 should get vaccinated.

The debate seems to focus on whether teens and young adults should get vaccinated. I will only contribute the views of my sons and their friends ranging in age from 20 to 26. They have all, 100%, chosen to get vaccinated and the mood is supportive of vaccinated.   They did their own research and decided it is the right thing to do for themselves and for their friends. I have had zero influence on the decision , other than they know I was vaccinated.  They report that they love the freedom of being vaccinated, of being able to socialize without fear . Before they go out as a group, they ask if everybody coming along has been vaccinated and if someone wants to join them for an evening or a boat trip, they will ask.  It sounds like peer pressure but  they want to keep the risk of a break through infection to a minimum.  They are outdoors, athletic kids and they enjoy being healthy.Immediately after the second shot each of them took it easy for 2 weeks, not to stress their bodies as the vaccine and antibodies sorted themselves out.  Obviously its a small sample but all of them report no ill effects and the upside for them has been very worth it.  They all took instagram pics at the vaccine stations and celebrated getting vaccinated. For them it was a good day.

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36 minutes ago, IPLore said:

There doesnt seem to be much debate here that responsible adults over 40 should get vaccinated.

The debate seems to focus on whether teens and young adults should get vaccinated. I will only contribute the views of my sons and their friends ranging in age from 20 to 26. They have all, 100%, chosen to get vaccinated and the mood is supportive of vaccinated.   They did their own research and decided it is the right thing to do for themselves and for their friends. I have had zero influence on the decision , other than they know I was vaccinated.  They report that they love the freedom of being vaccinated, of being able to socialize without fear . Before they go out as a group, they ask if everybody coming along has been vaccinated and if someone wants to join them for an evening or a boat trip, they will ask.  It sounds like peer pressure but  they want to keep the risk of a break through infection to a minimum.  They are outdoors, athletic kids and they enjoy being healthy.Immediately after the second shot each of them took it easy for 2 weeks, not to stress their bodies as the vaccine and antibodies sorted themselves out.  Obviously its a small sample but all of them report no ill effects and the upside for them has been very worth it.  They all took instagram pics at the vaccine stations and celebrated getting vaccinated. For them it was a good day.

My kids and their mates are the same. Totally frustrated that they are being kept waiting because the Gov prohibited under 60's from getting AZ and Pfizer is in short supply here and only given to the vulnerable, front line etc.

Their attitude is "bring it on and let us breathe" 

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5 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You don't understand statistics either then nor epidemiology.  You assume that the virus affects the population evenly but it doesn't.  So go back and rework you statistics on that basis.

I don't assume that at all. If you have one person with a risk of 1 in a million, one with a risk of 100 in a million, and one with a risk of 1399 in a million, then the population risk is 500 in a  million.

If you, through vaccination, halve the number of infectious people in the community, then the risks for each group are halved, as is the population risk. So the outcome we want is to get say 90% of the population vaccinated, and therefore reduce the risk of infection by an order of magnitude. Hopefully we'll below the R 1 level, so the virus (mostly) dies out.

As Eyesailor says, it ain't complicated.

FWIW, I have never had a flu vaccine. So clearly my personal threshold for impact vs risk lies above flu and below covid.

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On 6/17/2021 at 6:31 PM, Wess said:

And yet still more than 99% people survive it. 

Sure, no prob, right?

I've got this special revolver with a 100 round cylinder. Let's see you put one bullet in it, and play Russian Roulette.

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Shortforbob said:

Their attitude is "bring it on and let us breathe" 

Listening to my kids, who are much younger, I'm not sure whether they are considering risk reduction at all. Rather they seem to be focused on "we need to be vaccinated before the government will let us do xyz - mainly travel".

So this isn't really an informed choice on vaccine, rather avoiding government punishment / restriction. My libertarian streak does think there is a difference between the government saying you must be vaccinated to receive a government supplied service (ie school) vs a government restricting the right to free travel based on a vaccine with low but real risk.

Makes for an interesting theoretical debate, whilst my pragmatic side will have the whole family vaccinated as soon as they are able.

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9 minutes ago, Se7en said:

Listening to my kids, who are much younger, I'm not sure whether they are considering risk reduction at all. Rather they seem to be focused on "we need to be vaccinated before the government will let us do xyz - mainly travel".

So this isn't really an informed choice on vaccine, rather avoiding government punishment / restriction. My libertarian streak does think there is a difference between the government saying you must be vaccinated to receive a government supplied service (ie school) vs a government restricting the right to free travel based on a vaccine with low but real risk.

Makes for an interesting theoretical debate, whilst my pragmatic side will have the whole family vaccinated as soon as they are able.

Your kids are younger and want to travel?

Mine are 27 and 23.

But yeah, mostly the young are tired of restrictions for their own reasons, but still "do the right thing" for altruism.

It's harder on them and they should be given informed choice.

We have enough AZ to fully vaccinate everyone by the end of the year.

Frankly, I don't think the Feds have a clue what to do next. After a great start they've hit the fence and are hedging. (us all in)

Another long lockdown in Melbourne will cause civil disobedience.

NSW  seems to already be there.

We all grow weary of being asked to man the breach.

 

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3 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

My kids and their mates are the same. Totally frustrated that they are being kept waiting because the Gov prohibited under 60's from getting AZ and Pfizer is in short supply here and only given to the vulnerable, front line etc.

Their attitude is "bring it on and let us breathe" 

Yup the kids refer to March 2020-March 2021 as "the lost year".    A year when college classes went online. A year where they started new jobs without meeting their colleagues or their new boss. A year where spent hours talking on Zoom about what they were going to do when this was over. A year when they went back to live with their parents rather than find that cheap apartment with friends.  When the vaccine became available, yes they signed up.

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1 hour ago, Se7en said:

Listening to my kids, who are much younger, I'm not sure whether they are considering risk reduction at all. Rather they seem to be focused on "we need to be vaccinated before the government will let us do xyz - mainly travel".

So this isn't really an informed choice on vaccine, rather avoiding government punishment / restriction. My libertarian streak does think there is a difference between the government saying you must be vaccinated to receive a government supplied service (ie school) vs a government restricting the right to free travel based on a vaccine with low but real risk.

Makes for an interesting theoretical debate, whilst my pragmatic side will have the whole family vaccinated as soon as they are able.

So two examples.

1.  The New Zealand Government.  After all the sacrifices made by the people of NZ to achieve near total elimination from their country, as borders open up, do you think it is reasonable to insist that any visitor to NZ must be vaccinated 4 weeks prior to arrival. Are they not entitled to keep their own country virus free?

2. If someone from the US visited a high risk covid zone in Africa, do you think it is reasonable of our government to require on a vaccination before traveling ?   Why would we let someone bring back another wave and another variant?

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I think it's entirely reasonable for any country to require all international arrivals, including their own citizens, to have been fully vaccinated and to have a negative PCR test shortly before or upon arrival. 

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3 hours ago, Se7en said:

I don't assume that at all. If you have one person with a risk of 1 in a million, one with a risk of 100 in a million, and one with a risk of 1399 in a million, then the population risk is 500 in a  million.

If you, through vaccination, halve the number of infectious people in the community, then the risks for each group are halved, as is the population risk. So the outcome we want is to get say 90% of the population vaccinated, and therefore reduce the risk of infection by an order of magnitude. Hopefully we'll below the R 1 level, so the virus (mostly) dies out.

 

You are clearly out of your depth on this subject.

If a 9 year old has a risk of less than 1 in a million of serious illness from Covid-19 yet has a greater risk of adverse reaction to a vaccine then vaccinating the child increases the risk of illness in a population.  However if they are vaccinated or not vaccinated their risk of serious Covid illness doesn't change as it doesn't affect THEIR particular part of the population. 

Now if you vaccinate all those that are in the vulnerable age group that are at a risk of 1399 in a million then you do change the general population risk because you have lowered the risk level of those that do contribute AND contribute the most to the overall population risk.

Now you confuse yourself further when you introduce R - the rate of infection.  Many many factors affect the R including immunity (natural or vaccinated), population density etc. 

 

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2 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You are clearly out of your depth on this subject.

If a 9 year old has a risk of less than 1 in a million of serious illness from Covid-19 yet has a greater risk of adverse reaction to a vaccine then vaccinating the child increases the risk of illness in a population.  However if they are vaccinated or not vaccinated their risk of serious Covid illness doesn't change as it doesn't affect THEIR particular part of the population. 

Now if you vaccinate all those that are in the vulnerable age group that are at a risk of 1399 in a million then you do change the general population risk because you have lowered the risk level of those that do contribute AND contribute the most to the overall population risk.

Now you confuse yourself further when you introduce R - the rate of infection.  Many many factors affect the R including immunity (natural or vaccinated), population density etc. 

 

I hope you get it and die.

Your stupidity deserves no less.

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2 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You are clearly out of your depth on this subject.

image.png.2dc163295ed2bb69734f8b6de545923e.png

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32 minutes ago, random. said:

image.png.2dc163295ed2bb69734f8b6de545923e.png

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/heart-inflammation-in-young-men-higher-than-expected-after-pfizer-moderna-vaccines-u-s-cdc-1.5464486

Nearly 3 times or greater the expected rate of occurrence in a low Covid-19 risk group.

Next some of you will be saying Covid-19 induced myocarditis is worse than Pzifer myocarditis.

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You are clearly out of your depth on this subject.

I agree we have a different understanding of this subject. Not sure I'm going to ask for a refund on the three years of stats I did as part of my undergrad degree quite yet though.

People who only get a mild case do still spread the disease. Which is why people who are not at great risk of serious disease are still part of the population of people able to spread the disease.

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7 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Your kids are younger and want to travel?

We all grow weary of being asked to man the breach.

Well, yes. Travel broadens the mind and all that. They both have savings accounts for travel. The 10 yo wants to go to NZ to see Kiwis. Is trying to convince an Aunt to go with her rather than me. She also wants to go to Tas and walk the three capes track. The 14 yo is off the QLD for swim camp in 3 weeks if allowed, and has a school trip to New Cal early next year. They both want to go and ski in Japan, but see that as a trip I should fund and go with them on.

Yes, I'm also getting a bit sick of the continuous Vic lockdowns. I would like to see an agreed open society up and let the chips fall where they may date. Probably 2022 to allow everyone to get a vaccine of their choice, more or less.

Personally I am 50 years old, and expect to have the second AZ dose in 6 weeks. I think I'm low risk of being affected by covid, but am happy to take the minute risk of the vaccine in order to reduce the chance that I might unknowingly spread the virus. I expect my peers to do the same if in similar circumstances

 

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3 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

I hope you get it and die.

Your stupidity deserves no less.

A little over the top but an understandable sentiment.

Just ignore him. This same old mouse wheel squeak has been regurgitating the same BS for a year now.

Mid posted this over on the Oz thread

(in an entirely different context)

 Seems apt.

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6 hours ago, IPLore said:

So two examples.

1.  The New Zealand Government.  After all the sacrifices made by the people of NZ to achieve near total elimination from their country, as borders open up, do you think it is reasonable to insist that any visitor to NZ must be vaccinated 4 weeks prior to arrival. Are they not entitled to keep their own country virus free?

2. If someone from the US visited a high risk covid zone in Africa, do you think it is reasonable of our government to require on a vaccination before traveling ?   Why would we let someone bring back another wave and another variant?

Sorry,  didnt realised you asked that of me.

I think both are reasonable and would willingly comply. (And oddly enough both are non hypothetical for me. I typically visit SA 4 times a year, and at least part of  my family plans on visiting ended as soon as we are able).

However, I'm cautious about vanishing too far down this rabbit hole. Vaccination for TB, rabies and Hep have been compulsory for a while (for Aussies traveling at least), and I have been happy to comply. Covid, likewise. But influenza? I'd be against. And another new virus somewhere between covid and influenza? Not sure...

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10 minutes ago, Se7en said:

Sorry,  didnt realised you asked that of me.

I think both are reasonable and would willingly comply. (And oddly enough both are non hypothetical for me. I typically visit SA 4 times a year, and at least part of  my family plans on visiting ended as soon as we are able).

However, I'm cautious about vanishing too far down this rabbit hole. Vaccination for TB, rabies and Hep have been compulsory for a while (for Aussies traveling at least), and I have been happy to comply. Covid, likewise. But influenza? I'd be against. And another new virus somewhere between covid and influenza? Not sure...

They aren't compulsory. Where do you get  that idea?

Advisable in some places maybe.

I get a Flu jab every year (except this winter) but I have higher exposure risk than most.

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30 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

They aren't compulsory. Where do you get  that idea?

DFAT.

We had to show evidence of vaccines to enter (Or return from, I forget which) somewhere in South America.

I think it was Yellow fever... Or maybe Rabies, that was the compulsory one. (And I'm using compulsory in the sense that we had to show a record of innnoculation at customs. I don't know if there was some way around it or not, but we definitely had it checked on that trip) 

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5 minutes ago, Se7en said:

DFAT.

We had to show evidence of vaccines to enter (Or return from, I forget which) somewhere in South America.

I think it was Yellow fever... Or maybe Rabies, that was the compulsory one. (And I'm using compulsory in the sense that we had to show a record of innnoculation at customs. I don't know if there was some way around it or not, but we definitely had it checked on that trip) 

Oh OK, I though you meant south Australia :D

I remember the Immigration official in a shitty mood at 5am or something at Heathrow making James take a freeking TB test. Kids and I aged 4 and 5 weeks  waltzed through on our passports then had to wait another 3 hours for the doc to pass him through. bitch.

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3 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

I hope you get it and die.

Your stupidity deserves no less.

I hope that KSFB eventually takes the vaccine and lives.

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6 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Oh OK, I though you meant south Australia :D

No... a course of valium is required there, and a liver transplant on the way home.

SA is South Africa, going to a Lekka brie with the okes. They don't give a shit what you might be bringing in.

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CV19 continues to rage through Brazil.

Except for one town in the suburbs of San Paulo which is 97% vaccinated. The vaccine used is Coronavac from China which has an effectiveness ration well below that of Pfizer, Moderna or J&J.  The point being that %age of  population vaccinated is as important as vaccine effectiveness.

Symptomatic cases of COVID-19 have dropped by 80% since the start of mass vaccination, related hospitalizations fell 86%, and deaths plummeted 95%,

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/brazilian-town-experiment-shows-mass-vaccination-can-wipe-out-covid-19

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5 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/heart-inflammation-in-young-men-higher-than-expected-after-pfizer-moderna-vaccines-u-s-cdc-1.5464486

Nearly 3 times or greater the expected rate of occurrence in a low Covid-19 risk group.

Next some of you will be saying Covid-19 induced myocarditis is worse than Pzifer myocarditis.

Check the rate of myocarditis in post-covid cases in the same cohort

Of course, you won't because it shows you to be a dumbass

And you won't shut the fuck up, either.

Does it give you some kind of psycho pleasure to think that you're harming others?

- DSK

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3 hours ago, Se7en said:

No... a course of valium is required there, and a liver transplant on the way home.

SA is South Africa, going to a Lekka brie with the okes. They don't give a shit what you might be bringing in.

nice cheese?:huh:

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So high vax rate with so so vaccine works well.

How about middling low vax rate with so so vaccine?  Looking at you, Oz. 

Apparently Pfizer offered 40 million doses to Australia in July 2020 for delivery this January. Genius leaders said no thanks we are going with the Oxford vaccine because we have cultural cringe and it's cheaper. So shut the fuck up about America and EU hogging the vaccine. You said no. 

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/governments-appalling-error-rejects-offer-of-40-million-pfizer-doses-in-july-2020/

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9 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Check the rate of myocarditis in post-covid cases in the same cohort

Of course, you won't because it shows you to be a dumbass

And you won't shut the fuck up, either.

Does it give you some kind of psycho pleasure to think that you're harming others?

- DSK

Ah the old Granny-killer narrative!

So what is the rate of "myocarditis in post-covid cases in the same cohort"?  Is it more or less than those who catch influenza in the same cohort?

What is concerning officials (YES IT IS CONCERNING OFFICIALS) is that the rate is significantly higher than average.  Is the CDC "harming others" or "Granny-killers" by saying that in public?  They know that the rate they are looking at is probably much higher than reported.

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8 minutes ago, d'ranger said:
37 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

... So what is the rate of "myocarditis in post-covid cases in the same cohort"?  Is it more or less than those who catch influenza in the same cohort? ....

So, you can't fix stupid and you can't vaccinate it.

Mikey.

He/she/it does have a form of lizard-like cunning, notice how instead of comparing the rate of post-covid mycarditis to the rate of post-vaccine myocarditis... which it assumes will make it looks like a malevolent moron... it compares to umm ?influenza?

News tonight, delta variant is spreading.... d'oh! Meanwhile the usual suspects continue to shout FIRE! in a crowded theater

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

 

So what is the rate of "myocarditis in post-covid cases in the same cohort"?  Is it more or less than those who catch influenza in the same cohort?

What is concerning officials (YES IT IS CONCERNING OFFICIALS) is that the rate is significantly higher than average.  Is the CDC "harming others" or "Granny-killers" by saying that in public?  They know that the rate they are looking at is probably much higher than reported.

Influenza is a good benchmark KSB because it has long been known that one of the effects of infleunza can be cardio vascular complications and myocarditis in severe flu cases.     Unfortunately Covid 19 has an even higher incidence and the cases do not have to be severe.  https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01816-2 

As you acknowledge the downside of catching covid 19 is unattractive for all ages vs not catching it.   The question that bothers you is whether there are downsides to the vaccine that we have not discovered yet.   Educated young people continue to weigh the known risk (Covid) vs the risk of vaccine and choose the vaccine.   We  were at a fathers day cook out at the YC today and the under 30s down to 18 had all chosen to get vaccinated. It was reassuring.

Im not denying that we should keep a careful eye out for any adverse side effects but thus far, none have been clinically or statistically identified.  Lets keep our fingers crossed. I am sure that this is something you would love to be wrong about and you would be the first to celebrate if our covid vaccines turned out to be both effective and safe.   But you are entitled to debate, investigate and pose the questions.   Obviously, I also hope you are wrong, for the sake of our kids and the future they have in a post covid world.  

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

He/she/it does have a form of lizard-like cunning, notice how instead of comparing the rate of post-covid mycarditis to the rate of post-vaccine myocarditis... which it assumes will make it looks like a malevolent moron... it compares to umm ?influenza?

So you disagree with the CDC and other similar agencies around the globe showing caution?

1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

News tonight, delta variant is spreading.... d'oh! Meanwhile the usual suspects continue to shout FIRE! in a crowded theater

Where is the evidence that it IS more highly transmissible AND more deadly?  It is being weaponised by politicians but the data doesn't match their rhetoric.

The Delta variant aka the India variant seems to behave differently in India!

 

coronavirus-data-explorer (5).png

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

So you disagree with the CDC and other similar agencies around the globe showing caution?

Where is the evidence that it IS more highly transmissible AND more deadly?  It is being weaponised by politicians but the data doesn't match their rhetoric.

The Delta variant aka the India variant seems to behave differently in India!

 

coronavirus-data-explorer (5).png

Or maybe, the people in India wised up and instead of believing bullshitters like you, they started distancing and masking and getting as much vaccine as they could.

How many people in the USA are dying of CoVid, per day? And what happened to polio and smallpox, BTW? Those dumbass scientists sure screwed the pooch on those, they should have listened to you instead

- DSK

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9 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

How about middling low vax rate with so so vaccine?  Looking at you, Oz. 

Apparently Pfizer offered 40 million doses to Australia in July 2020 for delivery this January. Genius leaders said no thanks we are going with the Oxford vaccine because we have cultural cringe and it's cheaper. So shut the fuck up about America

Yeah, in hindsight Australia fucked up.

At the time the logic was that we could manufacture the AZ vaccine here in high quantities. So we should do that rather that take vaccines away from other places. After all, an order of magnitude more folks are dying per day in the US than are catching the virus in Australia. The complications, ie blood clotting, from the AZ vaccine were not known at that time either.

So, yes, if we knew then what we know now, the approach might have been different. I suspect Australia is not the only country that holds true for.

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6 minutes ago, Se7en said:

Yeah, in hindsight Australia fucked up.

At the time the logic was that we could manufacture the AZ vaccine here in high quantities. So we should do that rather that take vaccines away from other places. After all, an order of magnitude more folks are dying per day in the US than are catching the virus in Australia. The complications, ie blood clotting, from the AZ vaccine were not known at that time either.

So, yes, if we knew then what we know now, the approach might have been different. I suspect Australia is not the only country that holds true for.

well put.

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2 hours ago, Se7en said:

Yeah, in hindsight Australia fucked up.

At the time the logic was that we could manufacture the AZ vaccine here in high quantities. So we should do that rather that take vaccines away from other places. After all, an order of magnitude more folks are dying per day in the US than are catching the virus in Australia. The complications, ie blood clotting, from the AZ vaccine were not known at that time either.

So, yes, if we knew then what we know now, the approach might have been different. I suspect Australia is not the only country that holds true for.

AZ is a fraction of the price of Pfizer.

Oz gov ignored the "quick, cheap or effective" equation.

 

But the original announcement was worthy of a 2nd rate ad man.

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4 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Or maybe, the people in India wised up and instead of believing bullshitters like you, they started distancing and masking and getting as much vaccine as they could.

You can rant and rave all you want and promote fear and panic but where is the evidence?  You can't deny that the case numbers in India where the Delta variant originated have plummeted.  If you believe that is because social distancing and masking has worked then you must be living in wonderland or you have no understanding at all of the population density of India and the way their society/economy functions.

4 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

How many people in the USA are dying of CoVid, per day?

The 7 day average is down to around 400 people dying with Covid-19 in the USA.  As of a month ago the excess mortality had dropped to 3%.  It is likely to be much less than that now.  How many of the 400 had the India/Delta variant?

4 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

And what happened to polio and smallpox, BTW?

Smallpox has been declared to be eradicated.  Polio not so much of a success with it being on the increase again.  Since you have mentioned Polio did you know that most of the variants in circulation are derived from vaccine fragments?  The wild polio virus has supposedly been defeated but not the vaccine derived variants.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/circulating-vaccine-derived-poliovirus-type-2-global-update

4 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Those dumbass scientists sure screwed the pooch on those, they should have listened to you instead

Well maybe those scientists that are driving the mass Covid-19 vaccination should have listened to the Polio scientists who only vaccinate the population cohort that is at risk i.e. children.

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39 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The 7 day average is down to around 400 people dying with Covid-19 in the USA.

image.png.1c4f01214f43ad692c567c53c5c8c5d7.png

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7 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You can rant and rave all you want and promote fear and panic but where is the evidence? ......

statistics.png

 

You're welcome, but I doubt you'll learn anything

- DSK

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11 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:
1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

statistics.png

 

You're welcome, but I doubt you'll learn anything

- DSK

Expand  

Expand  

About sums up your level of science.  

Getting the answer correct is "science"

Spewing a lot of irrelevant science-y sounding bullshit is just bullshit, no matter how often you insist you're smarter than everybody else.

- DSK

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10 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Getting the answer correct is "science"

Spewing a lot of irrelevant science-y sounding bullshit is just bullshit, no matter how often you insist you're smarter than everybody else.

- DSK

At least I post science references to back up what I post.  You can't seem to get past saying "bullshit".

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32 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

At least I post science references to back up what I post.  You can't seem to get past saying "bullshit".

Umm, no

You occasionally post references, but the ones I have checked do not "back up" your point but rather disprove it. You don't notice or care. AFAIK you have never checked any reference I tried to give you , including some on basic statistics that you obviously missed in school, so why bother.

Obviously this simple graph bothers you, so I'll repost it.

statistics.png

And it's so obviously true that it doesn't really need a lot in the way of documentation.

BTW you understand the meaning of "placebo"? Should I explain it for you, or assume you'll just spew more irrelevant bullshit no matter what?

- DSK

[edit to add] this graph courtesy of https://xkcd.com/ a webcomic of romance, sarcasm, math, and language.

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The first step to learning is to realize you don't know it. Some people are incapable of doing step 1 which is why I no longer respond to our resident know-it-all.  Even FaceBook does a better job of monitoring this crap, the SA mods should be ashamed.

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34 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

The first step to learning is to realize you don't know it. Some people are incapable of doing step 1 which is why I no longer respond to our resident know-it-all.  Even FaceBook does a better job of monitoring this crap, the SA mods should be ashamed.

Yeah, I've got Mikey and his alter-ego(s) on ignore and don't even bother responding to him as there's no openness to information or logic or reason there.

As for the SA mods:

1. They don't really exist

2. They are incapable of feeling shame

I realize that 1 and 2 are somewhat contradictory but that's the defining conundrum of SA.

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45 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

BTW you understand the meaning of "placebo"? Should I explain it for you, or assume you'll just spew more irrelevant bullshit no matter what?

The fact is there are no longer any placebo or blind trials of sufficient numbers to guarantee statistical accuracy of vaccine safety in phase 3.  Moderna has admitted that.  Pzifer have refused to comment.

Now disprove those statements.

While you are at it provide conclusive evidence that the Delta/India variant is more infectious and deadly than any predecessor.

Good luck with that one.

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25 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Even FaceBook does a better job of monitoring this crap,

Like the about face Facebook has done on the "Wuhan Lab virus leak conspiracy"?

Your mind is too closed for you to ever understand science.

The favoured scientific theory once was that the earth was flat until a couple of explores proved you couldn't fall off the edge.

Just as some scientists were deemed to be heretic by suggesting that the Earth revolved around the Sun not the other way.  

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People vaxed with AZ can get sick from delta. Not die or be hospitalized.

Something to think about when Oz lets people out. Aussies go on long trips. They are gonna get sick overseas. Time for a revax?

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8 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The fact is there are no longer any placebo or blind trials of sufficient numbers to guarantee statistical accuracy of vaccine safety in phase 3.  Moderna has admitted that.  Pzifer have refused to comment.

Now disprove those statements.

While you are at it provide conclusive evidence that the Delta/India variant is more infectious and deadly than any predecessor.

Good luck with that one.

Of course there's still a placebo group. It's the unvaccinated.

I not surprised you don't understand that.

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Canada announced today that, as of July 6, fully vaccinated citizens with proof of vaccination can skip quarantine when they enter the country.  Children under 12 still have to quarantine, of course, because they are unvaccinated.  

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17 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The fact is there are no longer any placebo or blind trials of sufficient numbers to guarantee statistical accuracy of vaccine safety in phase 3.  Moderna has admitted that.  Pzifer have refused to comment.

Now disprove those statements.

While you are at it provide conclusive evidence that the Delta/India variant is more infectious and deadly than any predecessor.

Good luck with that one.

By definition the more infectious variants will dominate over time. It does not matter if it is the Delta variant or another variant, the more infectious the variants will dominate at the expense of milder variants. Hence the importance of containing and eliminating the disease ASAP

Safety is monitored after phase 3 trials by comparing side effects with long term statistics of incidence of side effects in general population .   So, for example, if 3 per million of the vaccinated subsequently suffer from glaucoma and the average of thr general population over the last 10 years is 3.1 per million and age distribution is similar. Then we can rule out an adverse side effect

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The most important fact is that potential side effects from the vaccines are being closely monitored in 2 ways.

1. CDC and FDA monitor the broad population of vaccinated with the Adverse Effect database

2. vaccine companies and FDA will monitor the trial participants in detail for another 2 years at least.

We will know if the vaccines are unsafe.  Thus far, 12 months after vaccines first went into trial participants arms, the vaccine remains safe

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Thanks to all for your posts.

I conclude from the statistics in the phase 3 trials that the vaccine i took is effective.   I feel safer.  I realize my ultimate safety and return to normal depends on people around me also getting vaccinated.

I conclude from ongoing monitoring of the vaccination process that the vaccine is safe. Like hundreds of millions of other people, I have experienced no side effects from the vaccine and the probability of my getting covid has been reduced by 90%. 

I would like young and old in the rest of the population to also get vaccinated. It will make me feel safer to remove that last 10% of the risk . I will not feel good if 1 in 10 of the vaccinated still get sick just because of some hold outs. My understanding is that if 80% of the population get vaccinated then we reach herd immunity where the virus finds it very hard to find new hosts and eventually doesnt find a host and the disease is stamped out in at least this country.

To prevent it reappearing needs a global effort.

I join those who encourage everyone to get vaccinated. Lets at least try to stamp this bastard out.

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Its a damn shame that the pace of vaccination has slowed so dramatically in the US when we are still only 45% vaccinated.  Some states are close to 60% vaccinated, others lag badly.

Texas, a wealthy state, is only 40% vaccinated. How do we help these lagging states get vaccinated?

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1 minute ago, IPLore said:

Its a damn shame that the pace of vaccination has slowed so dramatically in the US when we are still only 45% vaccinated.  Some states are close to 60% vaccinated, others lag badly.

Texas, a wealthy state, is only 40% vaccinated. How do we help these lagging states get vaccinated?

Well you can't ever get more than 55%, the rest voted for Trump.

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4 hours ago, Rain Man said:

Canada announced today that, as of July 6, fully vaccinated citizens with proof of vaccination can skip quarantine when they enter the country.  Children under 12 still have to quarantine, of course, because they are unvaccinated.  

Skipping quarantine for the vaccinated is the stupidest $ driven idea I ever heard,

Vaccinated people still get infected and spread the virus.

Not happening where I live.

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5 minutes ago, random. said:

Well you can't ever get more than 55%, the rest voted for Trump.

Please dont say that. It does not help. This is not and should not be a political divide.  

How we voted should not determine whether I took the vaccine.  Trump's response to covid was flawed in many respects (lets not rehash that) but he advocated the vaccine and was frustrated that it did not  arrive earlier.  He was vaccinated.

Biden advocates the vaccine

It seems that rural populations are harder to reach and areas with lower education standards have a greater vaccine hesitancy .....which perhaps suggests that misinformation on social media etc affects those populations more.

Either way, I think it would be a great show of bi-partisanship if both parties united behind a "get vaccinated" campaign.

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1 minute ago, IPLore said:

Please dont say that. It does not help. This is not and should not be a political divide.  

How we voted should not determine whether I took the vaccine.  Trump's response to covid was flawed in many respects (lets not rehash that) but he advocated the vaccine and was frustrated that it did not  arrive earlier.  He was vaccinated.

Biden advocates the vaccine

It seems that rural populations are harder to reach and areas with lower education standards have a greater vaccine hesitancy .....which perhaps suggests that misinformation on social media etc affects those populations more.

Either way, I think it would be a great show of bi-partisanship if both parties united behind a "get vaccinated" campaign.

Old mate neglects to mention that only 3% of Aussies are vaccinated. I'll bet he hasn't had his yet....

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4 minutes ago, IPLore said:
18 minutes ago, random. said:

 

Please dont say that. It does not help. This is not and should not be a political divide.  

So you are on Planet Earth right?

Everything in the US is subject to a "political divide."

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Just now, 00seven said:

Old mate neglects to mention that only 3% of Aussies are vaccinated. I'll bet he hasn't had his yet....

Next Monday.

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35 minutes ago, random. said:

Skipping quarantine for the vaccinated is the stupidest $ driven idea I ever heard,

Vaccinated people still get infected and spread the virus.

Not happening where I live.

Still require a negative test 72 hours prior to leaving to Canada, and a negative test at destination or you have to quarantine. The hotel quarantine was a joke, and the fine was the same $$ as the hotel, so people were paying the fine.

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3 minutes ago, random. said:

So you are on Planet Earth right?

Everything in the US is subject to a "political divide."

Most countries have political divides.  But we (the USA) have pulled together on many issues.

In the case of the vaccine; there is a greater observed tendency for democrats to get vaccinated but I do not believe that is due to Trump: https://www.deseret.com/2021/4/23/22399234/former-president-donald-trump-americans-coronavirus-vaccine-obama-bush-clinton-carter   

Trump talks of the vaccine being a miracle and likes to claim credit for the development of vaccines.

I suspect there is an overlap between those who distrust government, distrust the medical community and those who voted for Trump to reflect their distrust.  So even though Trump is encouraging his supporters to take the vaccine, they are not listening.  They get told about those You Tube experts who claim the vaccine is unsafe.

 

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On 6/20/2021 at 8:49 PM, Kate short for Bob said:

So you disagree with the CDC and other similar agencies around the globe showing caution?

The Delta variant aka the India variant seems to behave differently in India!

 

coronavirus-data-explorer (5).png

There is so much in the Covid waves we do not understand.

Back in February commentators were hailing the India miracle, based on the decline in cases from September to December and in February they thought they had flattened the curve. Look at this article https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases

Then a month later cases exploded. Was it the Delta variant? Was it premature reopening? I dont know but something set up a massive 2nd wave.

The only measure which seems to prevent further waves thus far has been vaccination but we dont really know if vaccination will hold the line since many mjor countries have not succeeded in vaccinating 80% of the population. Ironically NZ starts late but is the kind of country where they trust their health care experts and will achieve a high degree of immunization.  The US is a big "FAIL".

 

 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, IPLore said:

There is so much in the Covid waves we do not understand.

Back in February commentators were hailing the India miracle, based on the decline in cases from September to December and in February they thought they had flattened the curve. Look at this article https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases

Then a month later cases exploded. Was it the Delta variant? Was it premature reopening? I dont know but something set up a massive 2nd wave.

The only measure which seems to prevent further waves thus far has been vaccination but we dont really know if vaccination will hold the line since many mjor countries have not succeeded in vaccinating 80% of the population. Ironically NZ starts late but is the kind of country where they trust their health care experts and will achieve a high degree of immunization.  The US is a big "FAIL".

 

 

 

 

The big unknown is how long the vaccines are effective for.   I think we will start seeing cases go up again in around six months as the long-term effectiveness of the vaccine decreases and countries open up their borders allowing the variants to spread further.

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16 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

The vaccine companies and the FDA are monitoring the antibody levels in the phase 3 cohort closely.

If we need boosters, who will get priority, countries which havent received enough vaccine yet to give all their citizens the first vaccine or the second round for early vaccine countries.

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Knowing what I know about covid-19 and how sick a person can get I just find it hard to believe that there are still people out there that are resistant to getting vaccinated.

Once home, I got my first vaccination shot as soon as I could and second shot will be this upcoming Saturday.

I will be very relieved to have this completed and I hope others that know my story will complete their vaccination schedule also.

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6 hours ago, IPLore said:

; there is a greater observed tendency for democrats to get vaccinated

That anyone bothered to find that out proves my point about the US. 

In Aus, no one knows.

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30 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

The vaccine companies and the FDA are monitoring the antibody levels in the phase 3 cohort closely.

If we need boosters, who will get priority, countries which havent received enough vaccine yet to give all their citizens the first vaccine or the second round for early vaccine countries.

Depends in part if booster substitutes for initial vaccination? And if production of initial is cannibalize or there is new capacity. 

Countries that fund development of same might get first pick. Moderna took US money. 

It's a me first world in America eg masks,  distancing, vaccine uptake. I regret to report it has affected me. I take care of me first. 

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7 minutes ago, random. said:

That anyone bothered to find that out proves my point about the US. 

In Aus, no one knows.

In Aus few can get the jabs, lol. I do think it deplorable old people are stuck with AZ so the young with more years to live are spared teeny tiny  risk of clots.

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