MR.CLEAN 3,944 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, WestCoast said: It's nice that a lot of people in America have the ability to close up shop, shelter in place and ride out a storm for a year without income. Extensive travel through the 2nd and 3rd world, has taught me that most people don't have that luxury. most of the 2nd and 3rd world apparently has a far better medical system and government than the USA, which is why their economies are not tanking nearly as bad as ours, and why they haven't had to ride out a storm for a year with no income. My Burmese, Chinese, and Vietnamese clients are busier now than pre-pandemic. I sure am grateful to have left the boating biz when I did. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
solosailor 414 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Quote Extensive travel through the 2nd and 3rd world, has taught me that most people don't have that luxury. Right, you just defined "essential" need to get out to work vs. asshats traveling all over for pleasure. That's for clarifying that for all. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 My nephew started this project up. It's in beta testing with United Airlines and Cathay Pacific. Seems to work. https://thecommonsproject.org/commonpass They did have to set up HQ in Geneva because none of their partners trusted health information being managed out of the USoftRump. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
EYESAILOR 1,250 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 hours ago, WestCoast said: It's nice that a lot of people in America have the ability to close up shop, shelter in place and ride out a storm for a year without income. Extensive travel through the 2nd and 3rd world, has taught me that most people don't have that luxury. Do you really think that Americans who have closed up shop think that is a luxury. Small and medium sized business owners with liabilities and real estate taxes to pay? Lives are being destroyed. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 hours ago, EYESAILOR said: Do you really think that Americans who have closed up shop think that is a luxury. Small and medium sized business owners with liabilities and real estate taxes to pay? Lives are being destroyed. Yah i was recently speaking to a friend in Spain he owns a business that services the cruise ship industry zero business this year , next year looks bad he has run out of personal savings , can’t pay his business loans , can’t pay his mortgage and is eating daily hot meals provided by CARITAS Alejandro is 63 years old and it looks like he will loose everything he was in tears on the phone dont underestimate this corona social destruction 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 "In the UK, pharmacy chain Boots is set to launch a 12-minute COVID-19 swab test in some of its stores, while it has begun to offer private pre-flight testing for those traveling abroad." Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SCARECROW 603 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, slug zitski said: "In the UK, pharmacy chain Boots is set to launch a 12-minute COVID-19 swab test in some of its stores, while it has begun to offer private pre-flight testing for those traveling abroad." Can they arrange private pre-flight testing for everyone else on the plane? That's what I'd be after. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Melibob 2,451 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, SCARECROW said: Can they arrange private pre-flight testing for everyone else on the plane? That's what I'd be after. at 65 quid a pop, it costs more than a return trip to the costa del Melanoma. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 hours ago, SCARECROW said: Can they arrange private pre-flight testing for everyone else on the plane? That's what I'd be after. Many countries require a negative test performed 48 hours before arrival everyone on the plane must be tested before they check in the present issue is approval , paperwork and test type Each country must have common rules 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, slug zitski said: Many countries require a negative test performed 48 hours before arrival everyone on the plane must be tested before they check in the present issue is approval , paperwork and test type Each country must have common rules That's exactly what the CommonPass is beta testing right now. The data security link for the Pass is that the pass connects the airline and immigration authorities directly to the labs providing the all test data. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, Left Shift said: That's exactly what the CommonPass is beta testing right now. The data security link for the Pass is that the pass connects the airline and immigration authorities directly to the labs providing the all test data. It’s the piece of paper ...the Pass ...that is the road block I read much about this proposed protocol in European Media, but not American italy seems to be farthest along do you have an American link ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, slug zitski said: It’s the piece of paper ...the Pass ...that is the road block I read much about this proposed protocol in European Media, but not American italy seems to be farthest along do you have an American link ? The CommonsPass is NOT a piece of paper. Completely digital. It is a data secure link to lab results for authorized recipients to allow travelers to disclose their verifiable health status. The Beta tests were recently on ABC and CNN nightly news in the US and The Commons Project is headquartered in Geneva, with offices in NYC, Tokyo and Hong Kong. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, Left Shift said: The CommonsPass is NOT a piece of paper. Completely digital. It is a data secure link to lab results for authorized recipients to allow travelers to disclose their verifiable health status. The Beta tests were recently on ABC and CNN nightly news in the US and The Commons Project is headquartered in Geneva, with offices in NYC, Tokyo and Hong Kong. Thanks I dont have a television and I’m not in the US , but I did reference the ..commons Project .. It Sounds logical Data privacy will be an issue https://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article112968.html Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, slug zitski said: Thanks I dont have a television and I’m not in the US , but I did reference the ..commons Project .. It Sounds logical Data privacy will be an issue https://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article112968.html Paul Meyer is my nephew. He's been working on secure transmission of health data for decades, all over the planet, in places like Bosnia, Rwanda, Peru, USofA, Indonesia, etc. along with a stint in the White House under Clinton. This is not a lightweight effort, with United and Cathay Pacific Airlines running the beta testing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Left Shift said: Paul Meyer is my nephew. He's been working on secure transmission of health data for decades, all over the planet, in places like Bosnia, Rwanda, Peru, USofA, Indonesia, etc. along with a stint in the White House under Clinton. This is not a lightweight effort, with United and Cathay Pacific Airlines running the beta testing. Some countries , Germany , don’t like citizens data being collected Sharing citizens data ..,this could be the defect in the Commons Project we shall see Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, slug zitski said: Some countries , Germany , don’t like citizens data being collected Sharing citizens data ..,this could be the defect in the Commons Project we shall see The data isn't "collected". It is displayed by the traveler and accredited at the gate through a link to the testing lab in real time and then disappears . Nothing stored in the cloud. It's quite clever. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Left Shift said: The data isn't "collected". It is displayed by the traveler and accredited at the gate through a link to the testing lab in real time and then disappears . Nothing stored in the cloud. It's quite clever. Concerning digital I frequently cross frontiers and deal with Immigration you would be surprised how many frontier posts still cannot read digital passports paper will be needed it’s possible that some years in the future all needed equipment is available at all frontiers lets hope for workable system that can be deployed now Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, slug zitski said: Concerning digital I frequently cross frontiers and deal with Immigration you would be surprised how many frontier posts still cannot read digital passports paper will be needed it’s possible that some years in the future all needed equipment is available at all frontiers lets hope for workable system that can be deployed now You may not be able to cross at "all frontiers", but that is a minute sector of the current international travel problem when considered for economic impact.. Not to get too much into a back and forth, but I wouldn't be surprised about rudimentary frontier crossings, actually. Based on a family challenge a couple of years ago, I'm the lightweight traveler in my family with 68 countries visited. Paul was just over 100, my sister was at 115 and her husband was at 135. Paul has personally worked in some of the most "backwater" places on earth. He is very aware of technological limitations and how to over come them. He has digitized national health data in such places as Rwanda, Peru, and Indonesia. He built a cellular network to trace Bosnian refugees that became the national telephone system when peace broke out.. And his team has equivalent experience. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
EYESAILOR 1,250 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/27/2020 at 5:41 AM, slug zitski said: Yah i was recently speaking to a friend in Spain he owns a business that services the cruise ship industry zero business this year , next year looks bad he has run out of personal savings , can’t pay his business loans , can’t pay his mortgage and is eating daily hot meals provided by CARITAS Alejandro is 63 years old and it looks like he will loose everything he was in tears on the phone dont underestimate this corona social destruction Same in the US......small businesses and the lives of their owners are being horribly affcted etc, One difference in the US in general is that this is a much more dynamic economic environment than Europe with an optimistic business personality. And much further along in terms of a digital economy than Europe. Q3 economic activity is+33% despite horrible CV19 outlook, Google just reported search revenues up 24% in Asia (obviously less affected) but US is +15% vs Europe +9% , remembering that Europe had a less troubling summer than US. There is just something in the USA DNA that is so much more willing to pick up and start again. Over 20% of restuarant owners in US lost everything. No government support like France....just loans which are no good if you cant pay them back. Some will never come back....but some will raise new investors, pick up and do it again. I know y'all give us a hard time for being uncouth, electing Presidents that we regret, and generally being a global, insensitive PITA ......but at its heart the USA is really a very friendly and energetic place. Which is why, despite everything, I am hopeful about the future after Covid. I worry that it will be very hard with massive government debt, a huge amount of money pumped into the system without a corresponding production, But somehow americans will work figure it out. The question is how long it lasts. There is something called economic scarring, where a recession lasts so long that the employee fabric is damaged. That said......economic lives are being destroyed in a terrible horrible and sad way. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 11 hours ago, EYESAILOR said: I know y'all give us a hard time for being uncouth, electing Presidents that we regret, and generally being a global, insensitive PITA ......but at its heart the USA is really a very friendly and energetic place. That's cute... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Left Shift 3,130 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 2:58 PM, EYESAILOR said: Same in the US......small businesses and the lives of their owners are being horribly affcted etc, One difference in the US in general is that this is a much more dynamic economic environment than Europe with an optimistic business personality. And much further along in terms of a digital economy than Europe. Q3 economic activity is+33% despite horrible CV19 outlook, Google just reported search revenues up 24% in Asia (obviously less affected) but US is +15% vs Europe +9% , remembering that Europe had a less troubling summer than US. There is just something in the USA DNA that is so much more willing to pick up and start again. Over 20% of restuarant owners in US lost everything. No government support like France....just loans which are no good if you cant pay them back. Some will never come back....but some will raise new investors, pick up and do it again. I know y'all give us a hard time for being uncouth, electing Presidents that we regret, and generally being a global, insensitive PITA ......but at its heart the USA is really a very friendly and energetic place. Which is why, despite everything, I am hopeful about the future after Covid. I worry that it will be very hard with massive government debt, a huge amount of money pumped into the system without a corresponding production, But somehow americans will work figure it out. The question is how long it lasts. There is something called economic scarring, where a recession lasts so long that the employee fabric is damaged. That said......economic lives are being destroyed in a terrible horrible and sad way. Well, that number ain't as rosy as it seems. GDP is up 31% from being down 33% that is a net loss of 11% for the year. In the meantime unemployment benefit claims are up, stock market is flat for the year, foreclosures are up and most retailers are panicked about the holiday season. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Melibob 2,451 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 10/30/2020 at 8:58 AM, EYESAILOR said: There is just something in the USA DNA that is so much more willing to pick up and start again. Yeah you've had two world wars fought over your cities and had the shit bombed out of you, lost millions of people to wars and concentration camps, eaten rats in the ruins..but yeah..you just have something in your DNA Over 20% of restuarant owners in US lost everything. No government support like France....just loans which are no good if you cant pay them back. Some will never come back....but some will raise new investors, pick up and do it again. I know y'all give us a hard time for being uncouth, exceptional, braggarts, electing Presidents that we regret, trampling all over trade and world health and environmental agreements and generally being a global, insensitive PITA ......but at its heart the USA is really a very friendly and energetic place. Which is why, despite everything, I am hopeful about the future after Covid. I worry that it will be very hard with massive government debt, a huge amount of money pumped into the system without a corresponding production, But somehow americans will work figure it out. The question is how long it lasts. There is something called economic scarring, where a recession lasts so long that the employee fabric is damaged. You mean they're all dead? That said......economic lives are being destroyed in a terrible horrible and sad way. Can I blow this up and frame it? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 10:20 PM, Tharsheblows said: The CDC announced that in America the suicide and drug overdose numbers have increased by more than the COVID death numbers among teenagers. Got a link for that? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 10/27/2020 at 4:14 AM, WestCoast said: It's nice that a lot of people in America have the ability to close up shop, shelter in place and ride out a storm for a year without income. Extensive travel through the 2nd and 3rd world, has taught me that most people don't have that luxury. It's nearly a week since your last post and Euro countries have been imposing more lockdowns in the mean-time. How is your holiday progressing? You mentioned earlier about being flexible. What specific plans have you had to be flexible about? You mention cancelled flights. Any quarantine requirements (enforced or otherwise) and did you have to pay for them? Don't get me wrong, it sounds like an amazing adventure (so far), particularly the part about there being minimal tourists, but the risks of going on such a long holiday during a pandemic seem exceptional. It also sounded like your were not alone, is this a family trip? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Ncik said: It's nearly a week since your last post and Euro countries have been imposing more lockdowns in the mean-time. How is your holiday progressing? You mentioned earlier about being flexible. What specific plans have you had to be flexible about? You mention cancelled flights. Any quarantine requirements (enforced or otherwise) and did you have to pay for them? Don't get me wrong, it sounds like an amazing adventure (so far), particularly the part about there being minimal tourists, but the risks of going on such a long holiday during a pandemic seem exceptional. It also sounded like your were not alone, is this a family trip? Trip is good. We're in Lisbon for a few months, enjoying walking around every day, the local cafes and all that. I'm going to the gym 5 days a week, which feels nice. My fiancé and I are doing a 2-3 year around the world thing, so I think this is our 4th month of a long long ride. Quarantine: None, anywhere. It's quite easy to avoid, as all the countries say if it's required or not. If it's required, we just go somewhere else. We do have flights to Mozambique next month... and they currently require a 10 day quarantine. I'm not super keen on that. If we go, then yeah, we'll do it and pay for it happily - but, we might also change to countries that don't require it. We play this stuff 100% by the book, to avoid any trouble. And we've experienced zero trouble. Flexibility: Mostly in flights. I often book flights 9-10 months out. Now, we do it like 4-6 weeks... and even THAT is often too much. Had three main trips cancelled due to flights: Peru in April, Russia/Japan in May, Fiji to get married in June was cancelled. That's been the main thing I've learned - to roll with the changes. So, I just traveled around the US for April-mid July. And then end of July, I left the US full-time. Risk: I don't know how traveling now, presents any more risk than usual? Or, that not traveling would be safer? I don't see any logic behind that - so, I'd be genuinely curious of your thoughts there. We feel travel is exceptionally low risk, and I much more worry about getting in a car accident on way to the airport. Or, the armed guards sitting under trees in The Gambia that wanted money every 10km we drove.... -- People are super friendly to us, everywhere. It's wild. I've never had so many conversations with people asking about our travels, or excited we're still out there. People are hurting, and genuinely appreciate the business in Uber, taxis, hotels, restaurants. People are good, that's one thing I've learned going against the trend here. And, I can't tell you how happy we are to be out here living. I certainly feel it is less risky to live life each moment, than to live in fear. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, WestCoast said: Risk: I don't know how traveling now, presents any more risk than usual? Or, that not traveling would be safer? I don't see any logic behind that - so, I'd be genuinely curious of your thoughts there. Getting stuck in a country that's locked down, possibly for months? Getting CV in another country and requiring a hospital bed, but possibly none being available? Sharp increases in cost of flights? Public unrest? So significant risks to plans, health and prices all seem present. You seem to be dodging the worst of it so far. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Ncik said: Got a link for that? Here you go. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 10:20 PM, Tharsheblows said: The CDC announced that in America the suicide and drug overdose numbers have increased by more than the COVID death numbers among teenagers. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w How can you justify your statement based on that link? Absolutely no reference is made to suicide, one passing reference to drug overdoses increasing during previous years as a limitation of the analysis and the graph containing teenager demographic does not show any signficant increase in death rate compared with other demographics. Perhaps you've pasted the wrong link. But I suggest your link actually presents the opposite of you claim. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 21 hours ago, Ncik said: Getting stuck in a country that's locked down, possibly for months? Getting CV in another country and requiring a hospital bed, but possibly none being available? Sharp increases in cost of flights? Public unrest? This helps me understand where you're coming from. Thanks for the clarification. Trying to give a helpful reply below, as your questions were the first time I'd ever even thought of any of these things. We don't consider any of those even remotely worthy of worrying about. I've been traveling effectively full time since January, and not one of those has ever crossed my mind as something to worry about. Life has risks. The last thing that has ever stopped me from living was fear that something bad could happen. -- - I don't know why you'd get stuck 'in' a country? Aside from the random anecdotal stories of that Japanese guy in Peru...? I don't even think it's possible to get stuck 'in' a country. The risk of getting 'stuck' is if your own country won't let you back in - but since we're traveling for 2-3 years, this is no factor. - Getting CV somewhere. It is something I don't even think we've ever even talked about. I mean, legitimately, it's just never come up. I'm not sure how the conversation would go 'hey, what if we got sick? Ok.' I mean, what about breaking your leg while hiking? Or getting hit by a bus in Paris. Or car accident in Senegal? People think I'm being flippant sometimes, but, again, getting covid-19 is so low on the risk-meter of life, that, we simply don't even consider it. We make sure we're not passing it on to others, since it can hurt some people. But, otherwise, yeah, it's just no factor in any decision making we make, whatsoever. - Sharp increases in cost of flights? Flights are dirt cheap everywhere in Europe. There are thousands of flights a day, all over. We have enjoyed crazy cheap flights all over in the last few months. The only place I know of with expensive flights are into Australia because the governments put a cap on the people that can come in daily. So, as happens with a shortage, you get a bidding war. We've seen some local surges in prices when a border OPENS up. Those first few days, so many people want to travel, prices do go up. But, yeah, this is sort of like not buying a car, as gas might get expensive. - Public unrest? I'm an American. Our business is in Portland, Oregon. I was in downtown LA getting street tacos this summer while helicopters flew overhead and people marched with the National Guard stationed around the Staples Center. I got engaged in Hong Kong last November when all that was going on. What the television people say, is not the reality. 99% of citizen's, don't care, and live their lives normally. .1-1% are out making a mess. If you just walk on the other side of the street... that's usually all the distance required to avoid trouble. I worry more about getting sick from undercooked street meat in parts of Africa (never happened, incidentally), than I do 'unrest' in the 1st world. Life is short. I'm not living mine in fear because the news told us we *aught* to fear. I live by living, not talking about it. We're traveling, having a great time, and millions of others are traveling as well. It's about as risky as any international trip can be. I'm open to data that shows our risk has increased by even a single %, but, yeah, we're not going to sit on the sidelines for 2-3 years 'waiting for things to blow over' Life is too short to wait for zero risk. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BlatantEcho 226 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/2/2020 at 3:33 AM, Ncik said: Got a link for that? Link here, from the Director of the CDC. (bolding mine) But there has been another cost that we’ve seen, particularly in high schools. We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID. So this is why I keep coming back for the overall social being of individuals, is let’s all work together and find out how we can find common ground to get these schools open in a way that people are comfortable and their safe. - Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC July 14, 2020 https://www.buckinstitute.org/covid-webinar-series-transcript-robert-redfield-md/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Svanen 371 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 10/23/2020 at 11:23 PM, Shortforbob said: It's apparent that Americans are special. They with 8 million infections they have herd immunity and can't possibly be responsible for spreading the disease from town to town and infecting other more vulnerable people while asymptomatic. Fabulous. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 6 hours ago, BlatantEcho said: Link here, from the Director of the CDC. (bolding mine) But there has been another cost that we’ve seen, particularly in high schools. We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID. So this is why I keep coming back for the overall social being of individuals, is let’s all work together and find out how we can find common ground to get these schools open in a way that people are comfortable and their safe. - Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC July 14, 2020 https://www.buckinstitute.org/covid-webinar-series-transcript-robert-redfield-md/ Redfield was comparing deaths from suicides among younger people with death numbers from COVID among younger people, so apples and apples. He was not implying that more people kill themselves than die from Covid overall. What is true is that there is, sadly, a notable increase in suicides in the US, see this for example: 'No doubt the the Covid-19 pandemic has had effect on already rising suicide rates across the country the suicide rate for 2014: 43,000 for 2016: 45,000 and for 2018: 48,000. The first death from Covid-19 in the U.S. occurred in Feb. 2020. Assuming the rising suicide trend indicated in the above years continues into 2020 then we could expect 53,000 to 54,000 suicides not counting suicides which are Covid-19 related. https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/20/cdc-data-excess-deaths-covid-19/ 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 19 hours ago, WestCoast said: This helps me understand where you're coming from. Thanks for the clarification. Trying to give a helpful reply below, as your questions were the first time I'd ever even thought of any of these things. Did you buy travel insurance? Does it cover you in a pandemic? We don't consider any of those even remotely worthy of worrying about. I've been traveling effectively full time since January, and not one of those has ever crossed my mind as something to worry about. Life has risks. The last thing that has ever stopped me from living was fear that something bad could happen. You don't look both ways before crossing the road? -- - I don't know why you'd get stuck 'in' a country? Aside from the random anecdotal stories of that Japanese guy in Peru...? I don't even think it's possible to get stuck 'in' a country. Flights or other transport cancelled, lock-downs, curfews. These are all actual events that are happening. The risk of getting 'stuck' is if your own country won't let you back in - but since we're traveling for 2-3 years, this is no factor. - Getting CV somewhere. It is something I don't even think we've ever even talked about. I mean, legitimately, it's just never come up. I'm not sure how the conversation would go 'hey, what if we got sick? Ok.' I mean, what about breaking your leg while hiking? Or getting hit by a bus in Paris. Or car accident in Senegal? People think I'm being flippant sometimes, but, again, getting covid-19 is so low on the risk-meter of life, that, we simply don't even consider it. We make sure we're not passing it on to others, since it can hurt some people. But, otherwise, yeah, it's just no factor in any decision making we make, whatsoever. I agree, getting Covid is probably on the lower end of risks to you personally, unless you have some co-morbidities you're un/aware of. The other health risks are probably on par with any other time in recent history. But again, you wouldn't want to be desparate for a bed during a local outbreak. - Sharp increases in cost of flights? Flights are dirt cheap everywhere in Europe. There are thousands of flights a day, all over. We have enjoyed crazy cheap flights all over in the last few months. The only place I know of with expensive flights are into Australia because the governments put a cap on the people that can come in daily. So, as happens with a shortage, you get a bidding war. We've seen some local surges in prices when a border OPENS up. Those first few days, so many people want to travel, prices do go up. But, yeah, this is sort of like not buying a car, as gas might get expensive. Aside - Car sales in Aus have sunk, even prior to Covid. A possible reason is that noone wants to be stuck with a fossil fuel car as electric options are becoming increasingly available over the next few years. There's a risk of fuel price increases due to production scale demands. But let's not debate that. - Public unrest? I'm an American. Our business is in Portland, Oregon. I was in downtown LA getting street tacos this summer while helicopters flew overhead and people marched with the National Guard stationed around the Staples Center. I got engaged in Hong Kong last November when all that was going on. What the television people say, is not the reality. 99% of citizen's, don't care, and live their lives normally. .1-1% are out making a mess. If you just walk on the other side of the street... that's usually all the distance required to avoid trouble. I worry more about getting sick from undercooked street meat in parts of Africa (never happened, incidentally), than I do 'unrest' in the 1st world. Are you sticking to the first world? Public unrest isn't restricted to mobs. As you said, people are happy for your business because there are no other customers. How long till someone sees you as a pay-day worthy of mugging? (refer availability of hospital access above) Life is short. I'm not living mine in fear because the news told us we *aught* to fear. The news isn't, the epidemiologists and scientists are. I live by living, not talking about it. We're traveling, having a great time, and millions of others are traveling as well. It's about as risky as any international trip can be. I'm open to data that shows our risk has increased by even a single %, but, yeah, we're not going to sit on the sidelines for 2-3 years 'waiting for things to blow over' Life is too short to wait for zero risk. My point with a lot of these comments is that just because you haven't considered the risks doesn't mean the risks aren't present. As someone who is very risk aware, I am fascinated by someone elses relaxed attitude towards global travel during a pandemic. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Ncik said: My point with a lot of these comments is that just because you haven't considered the risks doesn't mean the risks aren't present. As someone who is very risk aware, I am fascinated by someone elses relaxed attitude towards global travel during a pandemic. Ncik- I appreciate your comments. It's actually very interesting to me too. I'll invert your last comment, as it's how I feel about this: I'm fascinated that someone would have so much worry about travel during a pandemic. -- We're going through 1st/2nd/3rd world on this trip. Balkans, then into West Africa, and Southern Africa. Then India, South East Asia, then up into Russia, then into the 'Stans. Then into Western Europe again. So, a real mix. Travel insurance - no, I've never purchased it. Lockdowns/Curfew - I mean, we were in France when the curfew started. I was in England last month when you couldn't have 6 people. Here in Portugal, last weekend, you weren't supposed to drive around to other parts of the country. We respect all that, but, I'm not sure why it would prevent us from traveling? I've driven around Ethiopia during a state of emergency (the comment from the driver was, 'It's Ethiopia, it's always a state of emergency!') Mugging/Robbery - I'd argue that's the biggest threat in some places, in general. But, that's always been the case. I guess anecdotally, you could argue lockdown ruining the lives of the poorest people in the world - people are more desperate? But, I believe people are good. I think if you keep your head on, right now, I feel safer than ever, as everyone appreciates the money being spent as we go around. That could change, but, I always try to have my head on a swivel in especially risky places. I got in an argument in The Gambia in January this year, with a guard with a gun. He wanted another bribe for us to get to keep driving. I'd paid so many of these that day, I was at the end of it. So, I argued with him. He was PISSED. I thought I was going to have some big problems there. And I thought a couple years back in Djibouti, that I was going to be murdered for $100. Well before Covid. -- I guess I'm just surprised that people delay travel or things because of, really anything. I hear people all the time say: 'I'll take my first trip to Europe next year when there is no risk of terrorism' 'The exchange rate is bad, I'll wait' 'Ticket prices are high, I'll hold off' 'I heard it's crowded, so I'll go next year' I just wonder, at what point, is the timing *perfect*? The risks are zero? People can justify any situation and say 'better safe than sorry' or... 'West Coast, you're crazy, it's a pandemic!' 'West Coast, you're nuts, terrorism!' 'West Coast, you're nuts, bandits!' I just don't understand where it ends. Where that line is drawn. Why this is different than any other risk. I just want to live my life, explore, I will not live in fear. So.....I just don't. And it makes me feel very very alive. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, WestCoast said: Here in Portugal, last weekend, you weren't supposed to drive around to other parts of the country. Were you a good visitor and abide by the restriction or not? This discussion is eye opening. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Ncik said: Were you a good visitor and abide by the restriction or not? This discussion is eye opening. Yup. I personally think it's silly, but, we canceled a trip to the south and stayed in town. I respect the laws of a country I am visiting, even if I disagree... part of the deal of being a guest here. -- The Points Guy just posted an short article about exactly what we're talking about: Take The Trip 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grog 607 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 @WestCoast How exactly do you think any part of your personal jump and run adventure is actually solid, usable and helpful advice for anyone planning an extendend trip to Europe? I still give you the benefit of doubt that you and your spouse have already been infected and have recovered, so you are a lot less likely to catch Covid-19 on your "fun travels" and become an active international super spreader. If so, your experiences still do not qualify as useful travel advice. If not, you are one of the best documented ignorant and repulsive idiots roaming this planet, insult totally intended. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Grog said: @WestCoast How exactly do you think any part of your personal jump and run adventure is actually solid, usable and helpful advice for anyone planning an extendend trip to Europe? I still give you the benefit of doubt that you and your spouse have already been infected and have recovered, so you are a lot less likely to catch Covid-19 on your "fun travels" and become an active international super spreader. If so, your experiences still do not qualify as useful travel advice. If not, you are one of the best documented ignorant and repulsive idiots roaming this planet, insult totally intended. Yep, I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt and try to glean as much insight as possible, but it seems such a selfish and risky move (no matter how much cash you splash on the locals). As they say, ignorance is bliss. I am really surprised @WestCoast hasn't been bailed up by authorities yet. @WestCoast, please keep us appraised of your travels over the next few months. I don't predict it will be all smooth sailing, flexibility or not, but I guess there's always a chance you can continue to thread the needle. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
The Dark Knight 814 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 I was in Columbia in 1996 when they still had lots of issues, including a major attack on a police station whilst I was there. It business as usual for locals. I think that the best way to decide on whether to travel is as to whether the locals day to day life normal or not 19 hours ago, WestCoast said: I guess I'm just surprised that people delay travel or things because of, really anything. I hear people all the time say: 'I'll take my first trip to Europe next year when there is no risk of terrorism' - usually a minor impact on day to day lives 'The exchange rate is bad, I'll wait' - no impact on locals 'Ticket prices are high, I'll hold off' - no impact on locals 'I heard it's crowded, so I'll go next year' - no impact on locals Covid-19 2nd wave - Lockdowns etc.. Life is far from normal. Stay away 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 8 hours ago, Grog said: @WestCoast How exactly do you think any part of your personal jump and run adventure is actually solid, usable and helpful advice for anyone planning an extendend trip to Europe? (Reminding me why the internet is so weird) Did you miss the part where I'm currently on an extended trip to Europe? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 5 hours ago, Ncik said: Yep, I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt and try to glean as much insight as possible, but it seems such a selfish and risky move (no matter how much cash you splash on the locals). As they say, ignorance is bliss. I am really surprised @WestCoast hasn't been bailed up by authorities yet. @WestCoast, please keep us appraised of your travels over the next few months. I don't predict it will be all smooth sailing, flexibility or not, but I guess there's always a chance you can continue to thread the needle. I don't know what 'bailed up by authorities' means.... but, we've been traveling since January. I'm not sure how it's going to get any weirder, or more difficult going into 2021? -- I think it's s shame to live in fear, personally. That's my main point. You can make up so many reasons to not travel. To stay inside. To be scared. To be afraid. To be practical. To be safe. If people want to stay inside and not travel, great! their choice. I don't care! But, it's so weird to tell others they are wrong, because they make different choices and have different values... I'm just sharing my experiences of traveling the world right now. (You know, answering the original question) -- I don't have any social media, but I post pictures from each country we visit on flickr. In case you think I'm embellishing, I promise I am not. Around The World 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted November 5, 2020 Author Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 7:59 AM, Matagi said: Redfield was comparing deaths from suicides among younger people with death numbers from COVID among younger people, so apples and apples. He was not implying that more people kill themselves than die from Covid overall. What is true is that there is, sadly, a notable increase in suicides in the US, see this for example: 'No doubt the the Covid-19 pandemic has had effect on already rising suicide rates across the country the suicide rate for 2014: 43,000 for 2016: 45,000 and for 2018: 48,000. The first death from Covid-19 in the U.S. occurred in Feb. 2020. Assuming the rising suicide trend indicated in the above years continues into 2020 then we could expect 53,000 to 54,000 suicides not counting suicides which are Covid-19 related. https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/20/cdc-data-excess-deaths-covid-19/ I would interpret his statement as meaning that we are experiencing more additional suicides and/or drug overdoes than COVID deaths among teenagers (or school age children), which are possibly because of lock-down related stresses. But this is a rather innocuous statement because the number of people 18 years old or young that have died of COVID is very, very small. (20 or so total). 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Tharsheblows said: I would interpret his statement as meaning that we are experiencing more additional suicides and/or drug overdoes than COVID deaths among teenagers (or school age children), which are possibly because of lock-down related stresses. But this is a rather innocuous statement because the number of people 18 years old or young that have died of COVID is very, very small. (20 or so total). Correct. The psychological trauma and the stories of abuse happening in these days of lockdown are tremendous, though, and they need to be pointed out. We risk scarring a generation psychologically for life. However, it is dangerous to confound or even weigh these two topics against each other. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted November 5, 2020 Author Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/2/2020 at 4:38 PM, Ncik said: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w How can you justify your statement based on that link? Absolutely no reference is made to suicide, one passing reference to drug overdoses increasing during previous years as a limitation of the analysis and the graph containing teenager demographic does not show any signficant increase in death rate compared with other demographics. Perhaps you've pasted the wrong link. But I suggest your link actually presents the opposite of you claim. I admit that I just found this report in response to the request for a link. I think I originally just heard a statement from someone related to the CDC says something to that effect (perhaps it was the quote BlatantEcho posted) However, Figure 2 in this report shows a fairly significant increase in deaths in 2020 compared to the same weeks in 2015-2019, by age group. (actually more significant in the 25-44 year old group) The assumption is that the increase in deaths is lock-down stress related (suicide and alcohol and drug related) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Melibob 2,451 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 6 hours ago, WestCoast said: (Reminding me why the internet is so weird) Did you miss the part where I'm currently on an extended trip to Europe? how could we. you've mentioned it about 10 times. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Tharsheblows said: I admit that I just found this report in response to the request for a link. I think I originally just heard a statement from someone related to the CDC says something to that effect (perhaps it was the quote BlatantEcho posted) However, Figure 2 in this report shows a fairly significant increase in deaths in 2020 compared to the same weeks in 2015-2019, by age group. (actually more significant in the 25-44 year old group) The assumption is that the increase in deaths is lock-down stress related (suicide and alcohol and drug related) While I think that you can depict an increase in suicides / drug deaths, this is not the data to support it. First: People in the age bracket 25-44 also die from COVID. The y-axis shows difference percentagewise, so even though deaths from COVID in total numbers might be low, that would be visible in the data. That shows especially in the second spike, that is very synchronized with the overall second spike. Second: that this is not the data is also supported by the decline in the end. With stress related suicides and addiction related deaths, I don't believe you would see such a steep decline in the end. The stress, esp. based on financial hardship, lingers longer, as do addiction issues. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 11 hours ago, Matagi said: While I think that you can depict an increase in suicides / drug deaths, this is not the data to support it. First: People in the age bracket 25-44 also die from COVID. The y-axis shows difference percentagewise, so even though deaths from COVID in total numbers might be low, that would be visible in the data. That shows especially in the second spike, that is very synchronized with the overall second spike. Second: that this is not the data is also supported by the decline in the end. With stress related suicides and addiction related deaths, I don't believe you would see such a steep decline in the end. The stress, esp. based on financial hardship, lingers longer, as do addiction issues. Not the best data for sure, but you can use that data to get an idea if COVID is the only lethal risk that is increased in 2020 by taking the baseline average and the percentage 2020 increase to calculate a real death total and then compare your calculation to the yearly number of COVID deaths for that age range. Granted, there are a large number of confounding variables, such as likely reductions of daily hazards that are related to commuting and other activities that many people are doing much less. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Melibob 2,451 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 3:59 PM, WestCoast said: (Reminding me why the internet is so weird) Did you miss the part where I'm currently on an extended trip to Europe? @WestCoasthas gone very quiet. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 20 hours ago, Shortforbob said: @WestCoasthas gone very quiet. Honestly, I find your phrasing of this comment, slightly creepy. The inference is that, if I don't post in this thread, at the cadence pleasing to you, that proves something? That's very weird to me. -- But, since you asked, and I'm sure you're genuinely curious how my personal travels in Europe are going........ We're still hanging out in Portugal, we're having a lot of fun (sorry to inform you). Rented a car last weekend, and drove all over the Algarve. Beautiful. Went to the Botanical gardens here in Lisbon, yesterday, had a nice date night with the finance. We fly to Madeira next week for a few days in the sunshine. A few weeks after that, we'll conclude our 5 months in Europe and fly to South America to start a 4 month trek up from Chile to Mexico. Then we'll head to Asia for a few months going through the 'Stans, before returning to Europe in June. We're living our lives, enjoying the world and doing our thing. Nothing changes on the plan if I don't post here giving people updates...... -- In general, I like to keep my personal life personal, and not mix business and pleasure. I value privacy a lot. I always regret posting my personal details here, as they get misconstrued, taken out of context, all that.... So, it's just full honest transparency here. Take that for what you wish. But please don't try to 'infer' things based on me not giving updates. I don't want to give updates. I don't do social media, and I like to do my thing. I'm simply providing real world, honest experiences, so people can see both sides of the story. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 6:15 AM, WestCoast said: So, it's just full honest transparency here. Take that for what you wish. I don't take that for anything. Honesty and transparency mean nothing to you. Now, having a sock puppet is probably not too uncommon around this premise. For some, it's probably a necessity, or a good measure of precaution for, say, getting temporarily booted by @MR.CLEAN for provocations and -others would say- blatant echoing of lies. The thing that disturbs me the most about your behaviour is that you try to sell your travel experiences on your one account while -in short- ridiculing those who try to contain the spread of a deadly virus on your other account. You have no regard for those who have lost their lives, their health or their income. If you pursue your travel plans, you kick the work of doctors and nurses in Portugal and beyond. Portugal's largest hospital is running out of ICU beds, Madeira is a red zone. Portugal provides free PCR tests to fight for a higher level of safety and to ensure in-country travel to its islands. You are able to rely on an infrastructure, measures and a collective effort of one of Europe's poorest countries. An effort that you mock and deride in your posts here and especially there. You will not get my anger or rage. Not even any further response. Why should I enter into any further discussion with someone, who postulates transparency and honesty while every bit of his behaviour is anything but? I don't engage with hypocrisy and double-tongues. But answer yourself this: if you enjoy your travels so much, if you really have been fortunate enough to leave your work behind to travel the world: Why do you still have the urge to fight in these forums, not just with one, but with at least two accounts? Why do you have this need to feel superior, omniscient and more advanced in your thinking? And not only that: Why do you feel the need to let everyone else know? Well. You're not as smart an ass as you think you are. Sorry for the hard landing. Being a world traveller during a global pandemic is quite something. I could almost applaud that. Spending your time (and frankly the administrative effort) of handling two accounts to provoke on these forums (and also liking your own posts, my god...) while doing it? That is just sad. Oh, and one last thing: invest in a better camera. Your pics are not great, but ok. Spend your time there. It will give you more joy,in the end. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 On 11/20/2020 at 4:42 AM, Matagi said: I don't take that for anything. Honesty and transparency mean nothing to you. Now, having a sock puppet is probably not too uncommon around this premise. For some, it's probably a necessity, or a good measure of precaution for, say, getting temporarily booted by @MR.CLEAN for provocations and -others would say- blatant echoing of lies. The thing that disturbs me the most about your behaviour is that you try to sell your travel experiences on your one account while -in short- ridiculing those who try to contain the spread of a deadly virus on your other account. You have no regard for those who have lost their lives, their health or their income. If you pursue your travel plans, you kick the work of doctors and nurses in Portugal and beyond. Portugal's largest hospital is running out of ICU beds, Madeira is a red zone. Portugal provides free PCR tests to fight for a higher level of safety and to ensure in-country travel to its islands. You are able to rely on an infrastructure, measures and a collective effort of one of Europe's poorest countries. An effort that you mock and deride in your posts here and especially there. You will not get my anger or rage. Not even any further response. Why should I enter into any further discussion with someone, who postulates transparency and honesty while every bit of his behaviour is anything but? I don't engage with hypocrisy and double-tongues. But answer yourself this: if you enjoy your travels so much, if you really have been fortunate enough to leave your work behind to travel the world: Why do you still have the urge to fight in these forums, not just with one, but with at least two accounts? Why do you have this need to feel superior, omniscient and more advanced in your thinking? And not only that: Why do you feel the need to let everyone else know? Well. You're not as smart an ass as you think you are. Sorry for the hard landing. Being a world traveller during a global pandemic is quite something. I could almost applaud that. Spending your time (and frankly the administrative effort) of handling two accounts to provoke on these forums (and also liking your own posts, my god...) while doing it? That is just sad. Oh, and one last thing: invest in a better camera. Your pics are not great, but ok. Spend your time there. It will give you more joy,in the end. I have no idea whether WestCoast has another account or not, or if he does, what he is saying on the other account, but I found his responses on this thread to be directly relevant to the questions I asked. In fact, I found his responses to be the most relevant and informative regarding what is actually happening in Europe now. Also, while I'm well aware that there are strong opinions on the matter, nothing Westcoast said on this thread showed that he has "no regard for those who have lost their lives, their health or their income." In fact, he seems to have more regard for some European's need for income than many of those who strongly objected to his traveling. Regarding their lives and health, I assume he merely has a different opinion about the threat he is personally posing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 At the very least, he appears to be ignoring the advice of experts to contain a very contagious virus during a pandemic. He clearly shows an attitude of "rights over responsibilities". Splashing cash on the locals is a faint justification. Does his mere opinion trump the expert advice? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 44 minutes ago, Ncik said: At the very least, he appears to be ignoring the advice of experts to contain a very contagious virus during a pandemic. He clearly shows an attitude of "rights over responsibilities". Splashing cash on the locals is a faint justification. Does his mere opinion trump the expert advice? When you arrive on island, they do a covid test (it's free). They hand you a banana and water while you wait. It's fast, kinda fun and painless. All these workers are talking about how beautiful their island is, and what you can see and do. Why? Because they are desperate for tourists. It's how everyone feeds themselves. Taxis. Restaurants. Hotels. Gondolas. Rental Cars. Signs are all over about hotels and restaurants being safe to enjoy. We talk to the shop keepers who are desperately wanting more Brits and Germans to come back and visit. -- With their free testing on arrival - I got another negative result yesterday... It's hard to spread a virus if I don't have it, and if I keep getting tested, and keep not having it.... What threat am I to anyone, exactly? -- I realize online most people just take the simple position that everyone should do what they do. (and if we don't, we're idiots...) But objectively telling me, that even after another negative test, that I am somehow magically harming people by traveling? I mean, that's not based in any science, or even reality. It seems the responses that disagree with me, are based on personal feelings. Not science or facts. It's fine to disagree, but, it's a pretty weak argument to say "West Coast is harming people, because I feel like he is." That just lowers the bar on the entire debate, in my view. -- I can't spread a virus I don't have. I keep getting tested for the virus, and I keep not having it. If I got it, I wouldn't travel. But I don't have it, so I travel. This isn't some difficult logic chain here... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Completely unrelated. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 3:15 PM, WestCoast said: Honestly, I find your phrasing of this comment, slightly creepy. The inference is that, if I don't post in this thread, at the cadence pleasing to you, that proves something? That's very weird to me. -- But, since you asked, and I'm sure you're genuinely curious how my personal travels in Europe are going........ We're still hanging out in Portugal, we're having a lot of fun (sorry to inform you). Rented a car last weekend, and drove all over the Algarve. Beautiful. Went to the Botanical gardens here in Lisbon, yesterday, had a nice date night with the finance. We fly to Madeira next week for a few days in the sunshine. A few weeks after that, we'll conclude our 5 months in Europe and fly to South America to start a 4 month trek up from Chile to Mexico. Then we'll head to Asia for a few months going through the 'Stans, before returning to Europe in June. We're living our lives, enjoying the world and doing our thing. Nothing changes on the plan if I don't post here giving people updates...... -- In general, I like to keep my personal life personal, and not mix business and pleasure. I value privacy a lot. I always regret posting my personal details here, as they get misconstrued, taken out of context, all that.... So, it's just full honest transparency here. Take that for what you wish. But please don't try to 'infer' things based on me not giving updates. I don't want to give updates. I don't do social media, and I like to do my thing. I'm simply providing real world, honest experiences, so people can see both sides of the story. Just read Madeiras procedures and current covid infection state and the procedures seem a little lax. Clearly they're trying to maintain their tourism economy, but with cases increasing I can't see them evading a catastrophe like other regions around the world. Maybe they have a very young and healthy population that could weather the storm, who knows, but 72 hours leeway for a covid test before arrival seems like an invitation for covid. Portugals infection graph is turning up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/covid/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It's all over, praise the lord, negative % changes for cases and deaths...mmm...something doesn't quite add up, that graph doesn't give that impression. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Melibob 2,451 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Was talking to my friend in Cyprus last night. They're going into pretty hard lockdown today. It's now spread to the Greek islands though numbers so far are small. A lot of old people there and poor hospitals. Despite their really hard efforts and economic pain early on. Tourists. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grog 607 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 In related news ntv introduced three new shades of reddish colours to illustrate the ongoing surge of infections. As some might remember, a few weeks after the first wave and shutdown this map showing the counties of Germany was showing mostly green (incidence sub 2) or at worst a light shade of grey (incidence sub 10). The absolute limit was set to a rolling incidence of 50 per 100k population per 7 days, based on the worst number we had seen in spring (Hint: that's the bright red). The states also agreed on an early warning level of 35/100k/7d in orange. Since the bug is such an persistent little fucker and herd mentality far outweighed herd immunity over here as well, we now have a new, darker red for 100/100k/7d, an almost maroon shade for 200/100k/7d and the dark violet for a whopping 500/100k/7d. I am guessing we will see some bright pink for 1k/100k/7d before the end of the year. I find this row of numbers ... 35 - 50 - 100 - 200 - 500 ... equally unsettling as their pace. Anyone notice a pattern? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grog 607 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 As far as traveling goes, listen to this man then ... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Westcoast, How is your experience progressing so far? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @Tharsheblows Weather has turned to rainy and low 60s, but otherwise good. Curfew on weekends at 1pm for a few weeks, so, everything is packed all morning until then *shrug* -- We can only stay in Europe for 90 days on a tourist visa, so in two weeks we'll head to South America. Chile opened up last month, so hoping to get time in Patagonia while it's quiet and empty. We'll spend a couple months traveling up before landing in Mexico City and then heading to Asia. -- Not looking forward to so many more test swabs stuck deep into my nose.... but a small price to pay for traveling freely. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I figured you were pretty bored... Does your evil sock puppet also gets it up the nose? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 How's Chile? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
slug zitski 375 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 11/27/2020 at 1:23 AM, WestCoast said: When you arrive on island, they do a covid test (it's free). They hand you a banana and water while you wait. It's fast, kinda fun and painless. All these workers are talking about how beautiful their island is, and what you can see and do. Why? Because they are desperate for tourists. It's how everyone feeds themselves. Taxis. Restaurants. Hotels. Gondolas. Rental Cars. Signs are all over about hotels and restaurants being safe to enjoy. We talk to the shop keepers who are desperately wanting more Brits and Germans to come back and visit. -- With their free testing on arrival - I got another negative result yesterday... It's hard to spread a virus if I don't have it, and if I keep getting tested, and keep not having it.... What threat am I to anyone, exactly? -- I realize online most people just take the simple position that everyone should do what they do. (and if we don't, we're idiots...) But objectively telling me, that even after another negative test, that I am somehow magically harming people by traveling? I mean, that's not based in any science, or even reality. It seems the responses that disagree with me, are based on personal feelings. Not science or facts. It's fine to disagree, but, it's a pretty weak argument to say "West Coast is harming people, because I feel like he is." That just lowers the bar on the entire debate, in my view. -- I can't spread a virus I don't have. I keep getting tested for the virus, and I keep not having it. If I got it, I wouldn't travel. But I don't have it, so I travel. This isn't some difficult logic chain here... I’m sure that tourism dependent economies need leisure travelers this doesn’t make leisure travel desirable corona was spread by travel even if corona testing and quarantine are 99 percent effective , the corona transmission problem will grow its obvious that less travel equals less corona transmission 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WestCoast 337 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 @Ncik Yeah, Chile was nice. We stopped in Brazil for a few days first, then went to Ecuador for a couple weeks, now in Colombia. Will be here till mid Feb when heading up Central America. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 And the Oscar for worst sock puppet goes to Blatant Echo and Westcoast in... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Amati 1,549 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 hours ago, Matagi said: And the Oscar for worst sock puppet goes to Blatant Echo and Westcoast in... And more cases will lead to more mutations- I wonder what West Coast’s plan is if one or all of them of them - he keeps saying we- come down positive, or worse, acutely symptomatic? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Melibob 2,451 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/19/2021 at 1:02 PM, Amati said: And more cases will lead to more mutations- I wonder what West Coast’s plan is if one or all of them of them - he keeps saying we- come down positive, or worse, acutely symptomatic? I hope he's in somewhere like Brazil when that happens. Actually, I don't think he's travelling anywhere outside his mothers spare room. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 On 1/18/2021 at 6:02 PM, Amati said: And more cases will lead to more mutations- I wonder what West Coast’s plan is if one or all of them of them - he keeps saying we- come down positive, or worse, acutely symptomatic? Statistically, if Westcoast were to catch COVID, he would likely be sick for a couple of weeks and then recover like 99% of people who are not yet elderly and don't have serious comorbidities, regardless of where he is located. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ncik 200 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The UK is implementing new quarantine rules. So that will blow up some European travel plans, or is UK not considered part of Europe now? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Amati 1,549 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, Tharsheblows said: Statistically, if Westcoast were to catch COVID, he would likely be sick for a couple of weeks and then recover like 99% of people who are not yet elderly and don't have serious comorbidities, regardless of where he is located. I went in for a biopsy a decade or so ago. The odds of an infection from it were .05%. The infection nearly killed me, like crash cart time, and I was a fit young man. (Or so the doctors told me). Play the odds, mr blow, but sometimes they play you. I don’t know if the expensive and hard to get antibiotic that saved me would have been available out of country, or even out of Seattle, much less the infectious disease Dr. who figured things out in time. I went into the procedure confident the odds were on my side. Imagine my surprise! I figure my behavior during COVID is kind of the same as going in for the biopsy if it wrong, Which, I’ll admit, seemed like an intellectual exercise at the time. Luckily we had a plan to try to deal with the biopsy. And it taught me (again) that you’ve got to do some planning if you’re going to intentionally put yourself at risk. Even better, manage your risk. Like, who even have MA’s? It’s like sailing. Seamanship. The ocean, and COVID, don’t give a shit about you. I think you have to believe bad luck or stupid behavior will get you sooner or later. And the really shitty thing about COVID is how many people you can, like you said above, put at risk. Right now, ~50% of people who have it, and are shedding virus, are asymptomatic. Recite the odds all you wish, if that helps. But the more infections there are, the more mutations there will be, and the odds will change in unexpected ways. They are right now. Ashes, ashes, we all fall down. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
IStream 2,745 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 On 10/14/2020 at 5:21 PM, IStream said: I'll be surprised if things open up before mid-2021, and that assumes a Biden win in November and a vaccine in Q1. If Trump wins, my money's on late 2021 because even with a vaccine you still need test/trace/isolate, masks, distancing and the like to keep the numbers down until herd immunity is achieved. With Trump, that won't happen. I'm gonna quote my own post here and double down on it. At the rate we're vaccinating in the US, it's gonna be autumn before we're in a good place with herd immunity but I could see travel allowed in the summer with a vaccine passport and pre-boarding testing. Europe needs those sweet, sweet tourist bucks... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 57 minutes ago, Amati said: I went in for a biopsy a decade or so ago. The odds of an infection from it were .05%. The infection nearly killed me, like crash cart time, and I was a fit young man. (Or so the doctors told me). Play the odds, mr blow, but sometimes they play you. I don’t know if the expensive and hard to get antibiotic that saved me would have been available out of country, or even out of Seattle, much less the infectious disease Dr. who figured things out in time. I went into the procedure confident the odds were on my side. Imagine my surprise! I figure my behavior during COVID is kind of the same as going in for the biopsy if it wrong, Which, I’ll admit, seemed like an intellectual exercise at the time. Luckily we had a plan to try to deal with the biopsy. And it taught me (again) that you’ve got to do some planning if you’re going to intentionally put yourself at risk. Even better, manage your risk. Like, who even have MA’s? It’s like sailing. Seamanship. The ocean, and COVID, don’t give a shit about you. I think you have to believe bad luck or stupid behavior will get you sooner or later. And the really shitty thing about COVID is how many people you can, like you said above, put at risk. Right now, ~50% of people who have it, and are shedding virus, are asymptomatic. Recite the odds all you wish, if that helps. But the more infections there are, the more mutations there will be, and the odds will change in unexpected ways. They are right now. Ashes, ashes, we all fall down. Don't get me wrong, I understand that dying of COVID is real and terrible and that 1% is actually a quite large number when multiplied across populations, but I also agree that its a lot like sailing. Anytime you are about to embark on a big sailing trip there is often someone on shore that thinks you shouldn't go because its too dangerous, whether its because of the weather forecast, the country to which you are sailing, your boat condition, or your experience level, etc.... And sometimes they are right, but many of those people stay on shore to avoid one danger or another their whole lives. Other people go and have a great time...and still other people go and die. My point is that everybody weighs the dangers differently. According to WestCoast, he has been tested multiple times over the last 6 months or so which likely makes him less of a danger than the average untested local. And all of these countries he has mentioned already have COVID outbreaks so its not like he is posing a risk of introducing the disease to a previously COVID-free community. Further, if you respect the intelligence of other people around the world enough to allow them to govern themselves and make their own laws and policies which balance such competing concerns as community safety and other interests (like the desire to feed their children) then as long as WestCoast is abiding by the rules set by the people who live in these various countries then any criticism of his decision to travel according to their rules is a little bit arrogant. (You're essentially saying that you know better than the government of country of X. Maybe you do...its still a bit arrogant). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Amati 1,549 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 You are looking for offense. West Coast has no immunity, nor has he claimed any. He (et al) can be infected by anyone at any time. And by the time he is tested positive, it’s kind of too late, no? And medical folks are telling everyone that you should act as if you do have it. That’s the logic, as far as I can see. How anyone operates around that logic is politics. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NeedAClew 1,404 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 My idea of a fun way to spend tens of thousands of dollars is not in a mask unless I am looking at coral. I don't fancy getting stuck in Indonesia or worse not getting there because they closed borders in China, HK, Singapore or wherever we connect. Europe? My sense of luxury in a Michelin restaurant does not involve watching the time and wondering where the other diners have been and what their habits are. Not flying longhaul until we don't have to. If it gets to be 3 years then maybe will reconsider. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
solosailor 414 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Quote We risk scarring a generation psychologically for life. Risk? I am psychologically damaged already from this mess with the realization that a large portion of the world are fucking assholes with no self control. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Matagi 911 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 21 minutes ago, solosailor said: Risk? I am psychologically damaged already from this mess with the realization that a large portion of the world are fucking assholes with no self control. There is a world beyond internet forums, you know? They say it's even in...(drumroll) 3D. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NeedAClew 1,404 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, Matagi said: There is a world beyond internet forums, you know? They say it's even in...(drumroll) 3D. Yeah, the one with non maskers jeering at those who mask and harassing store employees reminding them, the one with nose peeping assholes on airplanes flying despite "the sniffles" to vacation on cheapo airfares, the one with people threatening to kill elected officials in the Capitol...that's the one you (drumroll) recommend? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Jack 459 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I look forward to going to Europe this summer to do my usual some motorbike touring. I will have my vaccine in the next two months and will wear a very good, fresh N95/KN95 mask when not wearing a helmet, on the plane or walking the streets. Considering how the Europeans fed up of the lock down and small business harm are pushing back - these covid restriction doors will be down by May. The drums we are hearing is those for a call to return to normalcy and lifestyle despite the losses of the old, the infirmed and the obese. The rich and well heeled aren't going to tolerate another shitty summer or restrictions on their ranges. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 7 hours ago, Amati said: You are looking for offense. West Coast has no immunity, nor has he claimed any. He (et al) can be infected by anyone at any time. And by the time he is tested positive, it’s kind of too late, no? And medical folks are telling everyone that you should act as if you do have it. That’s the logic, as far as I can see. How anyone operates around that logic is politics. Sincerely not looking for offense and I never said West Coast had "immunity." My point is that having taken and passed many COVID tests is that he has not likely brought a new case of COVID into any of these countries and therefore likely presents no more or less danger to members of the community than a similarly behaving local who has not yet caught COVID. If anything should be obvious by now its that reasonable people can disagree about how to approach this pandemic. Even highly qualified medical professionals can and do disagree. We have seen different approaches within the US states, different approaches within Europe, different approaches between other sophisticated 1st world countries, and different approaches in less sophisticated countries. And while some approaches may seem more successful than others nobody can tally the total damage yet because its very complicated and its not over. However, if you can respect fellow human beings enough to allow various intelligent self-governing people to decide for themselves how to balance COVID concerns with the multitude of other often conflicting concerns, then maybe... just maybe, visiting a foreign country and abiding by the rules and regulation set forth by that country for visitors is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tharsheblows 57 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 54 minutes ago, Black Jack said: I look forward to going to Europe this summer to do my usual some motorbike touring. I will have my vaccine in the next two months and will wear a very good, fresh N95/KN95 mask when not wearing a helmet, on the plane or walking the streets. Considering how the Europeans fed up of the lock down and small business harm are pushing back - these covid restriction doors will be down by May. The drums we are hearing is those for a call to return to normalcy and lifestyle despite the losses of the old, the infirmed and the obese. The rich and well heeled aren't going to tolerate another shitty summer or restrictions on their ranges. Sounds like a perfectly reasonable plan to me. I truly hope you are right about May. Just curious, where do you hope to ride? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Jack 459 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said: Sounds like a perfectly reasonable plan to me. I truly hope you are right about May. Just curious, where do you hope to ride? I am torn between two directions. Germany, France, Switzerland and Spain or go Germany, Switzerland, Italy, ferry to Croatia, Slovenia and back to Germany. I had big plans for Romania & Ukraine but that might wait till 2022. Riding in the countryside, avoiding the big crowds/gatherings and getting plenty of fresh air, good food and daily doses Vitamin D are the keys to staying healthy. I have plans for two 3 week trips to Europe this year since the Hawaii race has been cancelled and sailing/racing with friends looks like it will be strangled until October. The SSS club being the only one hosting San Francisco bay events but manned singlehanded so I will plan around those. I have come around to believe we are going to be stewing in the Covid19 mess for at least 5 more years if not more with very deadly variants popping up to worry the masses. I am in my mid 50s, slim, walk about 3 miles a day plus lift weights and yet can not say how long I will have the energy and great health to do big bucket trips. I know we have inherent risks. Since many of my friends which i share common interests with are too scared to do the more adventerous things, traveling solo and being cautious is the only way i will ever get a chance to do them. Putting off dreams means often they become regrets later. Get the shots, wash your hands, wear
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